Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the importance of urban renewal actions initiated by the government, emphasizing the need for existing building renovations and infrastructure improvements, with significant progress expected by 2030 [3][13] - Short-term factors include the pressure for stable growth, the emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market, and the gradual alleviation of risks associated with major real estate companies, which is beneficial for the building materials sector [3][13] - Long-term perspectives suggest that the opening of the interest rate reduction channel in Europe and the U.S. will provide more room for monetary and fiscal policies in China, with expectations for policies to stabilize the real estate market and improve housing loan conditions [3][13] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - The report discusses various local government initiatives aimed at improving housing quality and supporting home purchases, including policies in Shenzhen, Nanjing, Wuhan, and other cities [3][13] - The report notes a 28.7% year-on-year increase in residential transactions in Shenzhen in April, indicating a potential recovery in the housing market [3][13] High-Frequency Data - As of May 16, 2025, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement in China is 386.2 CNY/ton, showing a 0.8% decrease from the previous week but a 10.2% increase year-on-year [4][14] - The average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1260.0 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.8% decrease from the previous week and a 25.6% decrease year-on-year [4][21] Sector Review - The report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.76%, while the building materials sector index fell by 0.24% [5][53] - Among sub-sectors, fiberglass manufacturing saw a 3.07% increase, while cement manufacturing experienced a 1.21% decline [5][53] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: high-quality companies benefiting from stock renovations, undervalued stocks with long-term potential, and leading cyclical building material companies showing signs of bottoming out [6][68]

行 有色金属 2025 年 05 月 19 日 业 研 究 有色金属 20250518 周报：后市稀土管制或有放松可能，看 涨氛围渐浓 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：中美关税缓和呈现短期压制，黄金长期配置价值不改。在关 税的不确定性和市场动荡背景下，美国就业增速将有放缓预期。上周末中 美经贸高层会谈在瑞士日内瓦开展，周一中方发布会表示，会谈取得重要 共识。随即中美双方通过再5月12日统一将对彼此关税降至34%，并在6月12 日前继续讨论进一步降低至20%或更低的可能性。关税政策超预期缓和带动 市场风险偏好回暖，贵金属避险属性承压。短期而言，全球贸易政策不确 定性及全球央行购金支撑金价，整体呈现易涨难跌格局；中长期而言，全 球关税政策和地缘政治的不确定性背景下，避险和滞涨交易仍是黄金交易 的核心，长期配置价值不改。个股：黄金建议关注中金黄金、山东黄金、 赤峰黄金，低估弹性关注株冶集团和玉龙股份，其他关注银泰黄金、湖南 黄金及招金矿业；白银建议关注兴业银锡、银泰黄金、盛达资源。 工业金属：供需偏紧格局不改，整体易涨难跌。铜，短期，美联储降 息预期仍在，基本面偏紧格局延续支撑铜价；中长期，随美联储降息 ...

电力设备 2025 年 05 月 18 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 电力设备 产业周跟踪：硅料减量挺价，CIBF 固态电池引 关注 投资要点： 行 华福证券 储能板块核心观点：印巴冲突带动南亚储能需求飙升，上海发文探索 容量补偿机制。1）印度河断流导致巴基斯坦储能价格飙升，南亚储能市场 需求旺盛；2）上海：探索容量补偿机制，鼓励独立储能利用退役能源设施 站址、海风预留地建设。 电力设备及工控板块核心观点：疆电入川特高压预计 12 月开工，优傲 发布 UR15 协作机器人助力自动化迈向新高度。1）疆电送电川渝特高压直 流工程环评第二次公示，预计 2025 年 12 月开工建设；2）国家电网发布《电 力"人工智能+"白皮书》，数字化及智能化转型持续推进；3）4 月 PMI 有所回落，优傲发布 UR15 协作机器人助力自动化迈向新高度；4）傲意仿 生手终结天价假肢时代，松延动力发布新一代女性仿生机器人。 华福证券 氢能板块核心观点：各地"以用促产"出台氢能产业支持政策，柔性 氢液化装置系统、海上风电制储氢系统实现技术突破。1）辽宁省自 2025 年 5 月 16 日起实施氢车高速通行费减免政策，西安探索建设一批光伏 ...

轻工制造 GLO 日本试销推进，新型烟草趋势向上 投资要点： 【周观点】5 月 12 日日本 GLO 官网公布新品 HILO 信息，新品预期将于 6 月 9 日在日本宫城县试销限定发售，若日本市场试销良好，产品力进一 步验证，思摩尔 HNB 业务成长空间有望进一步打开；本周中美贸易冲突暂 缓，优质低估出口链、以及前期受外销业务担忧的包装龙头迎来布局窗口； 出口情绪好转带动包装纸企涨价潮，玖龙、山鹰、理文等集体发布提价函。 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 -0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 5/20 7/31 10/11 12/22 3/4 5/15 轻工制造 沪深300 团队成员 | 分析师： | 李宏鹏(S0210524050017) | | --- | --- | | lhp30568@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 汪浚哲(S0210524050024) | | wjz30579@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 李含稚(S0210524060005) | | lhz30597@hfzq.com.cn | | 华福证券 轻工制 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the recent public fund regulations are a necessary result of long-term changes in China's capital market structure and economic structure [3] - The market style is shifting from low-volatility strategies to core assets, indicating a potential long-term decline in China's capital intensity [3][24] - In the short to medium term, the core asset style needs to recover, while in the long term, it reflects the cyclical bottoming of the economy [3][24] Group 2 - The report notes that the resilience of the US economy is weakening, with inflation structures continuing to adjust; April's CPI inflation year-on-year was 2.3%, while core CPI remained at 2.8% [8][11] - The US PPI inflation showed a month-on-month decline of -0.47% in April, with service PPI contributing significantly to this decline [9][12] - Retail sales in the US also showed weak growth, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.058% in April, indicating a drag on consumption [11][12] Group 3 - The report highlights the mutual reduction of trade barriers between China and the US, with both countries agreeing to cancel 91% of tariffs and establish a mechanism for ongoing economic negotiations [13][15] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a general increase, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.09% [16] - The report indicates a lack of clear main lines in the Hong Kong market, with sectors like security, NFT concepts, and building energy efficiency leading the gains [19][24] Group 4 - The report suggests that the growth style may continue to adjust due to a lack of event catalysts [3][24] - In terms of industry performance, financial and real estate sectors led the gains, while technology sectors faced declines [32][24] - The report also notes a divergence in foreign capital index futures holdings, with net short positions expanding in some indices [44]

分析师： 周浦寒(S0210524040007) zph30515@hfzq.com.cn 研究助理： 杨逸帆(S0210124110046) yyf30689@hfzq.com.cn 策 略 研 究 华福证券 29 只医药生物主题走出见底形态 团队成员 投资要点： 策 略 定 期 报 告 主题投资数据库旨在筛选优秀量价形态的主题机会，把握热门主题的 见顶节奏、龙头股的调整程度。在 3/9 发布的《主题投资的下半场决胜法 则》中，我们构建了主题投资的数据追踪体系。我们专注于 2 方面：1）4 种形态量化筛选，高赔率的主题机会；2）构建交易热度指标，把握热门主 题的见顶节奏，并最新增加了龙头股的调整程度观察。后续，我们将定期 更新主题投资数据体系。我们希望通过这种偏量化的方式，给予投资者更 客观的参考，把握住主题投资的行情节奏。 29 只医药生物主题走出见底形态。本期走出见底、突破、主升、加速 的主题指数数量分别有 79、38、9、0 只。其中，79 只见底形态的主题指 数多为医药生物行业（29 只）；而 38 只突破形态的主题指数中，行业多 为国防军工（7 只）、通信（5 只）和有色金属（5 只）。9 只主升 ...

基础化工 2025 年 05 月 18 日 业 研 究 基础化工 新材料周报：美国撤销"AI 扩散规则"并拟全球 禁用华为 AI 芯片，碳纤维巨头官宣涨价 行 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 本周行情回顾。本周，Wind 新材料指数收报 3636.37 点，环比上涨 0.57%。 其中，涨幅前五的有斯迪克(10.77%)、凯盛科技(7.81%)、祥源新材(7.36%)、道 恩股份(6.86%)、利安隆(6.2%)；跌幅前五的有华特气体(-6.9%)、阿拉丁(-6.88%)、 长鸿高科(-6.06%)、南大光电(-3.73%)、金宏气体(-3.54%)。六个子行业中，申 万三级行业半导体材料指数收报 6016.16 点，环比下跌 1.1%；申万三级行业显 示器件材料指数收报 1046.27 点，环比上涨 0.91%；中信三级行业有机硅材料 指数收报 6017.89 点，环比上涨 2.75%；中信三级行业碳纤维指数收报 1258.11 点，环比上涨 3.51%；中信三级行业锂电指数收报 1705.07 点，环比下跌 0.17%； Wind 概念可降解塑料指数收报 1848.78 点，环比上涨 2.93%。 碳 ...

行 华福证券 纺织服饰 2025 年 05 月 18 日 业 研 究 行 业 纺织服饰 户外专题（二）：从专业到破圈，解析伯希和高 投资要点： 户外专题（二）：从专业到破圈，解析伯希和高性能户外增长密码 定 期 报 告 伯希和以"科技堆料"构建差异化优势，依托 PT-China 平台自主 研发 STORM BREATH 防水透湿等核心技术，并引入全球顶尖供应链 资源，形成"自主+外采"双轨技术体系。产品矩阵覆盖四大梯度系列 （巅峰、专业性能、山系列、经典系列），2024 年 SPU 达 572 个。渠 道策略上，线上 DTC 为核心（2024 年营收占比 77%），线下 DTC 通 过联营模式快速扩张，三年收入 CAGR 达 383%，一二线城市门店占 比提升至 62%，实现高效市场渗透。 行情数据 本周家电板块涨跌幅+0.3%，其中白电/黑电/小家电/厨电板块涨跌 幅分别+0.4%/-2.9%/+1.0%/+0.6%。原材料价格方面，LME 铜、LME 铝环比上周分别+1.32%、+4.95%。 本周纺织服装板块涨跌幅+1.01%，其中纺织制造涨跌幅+0.94%， 服装家纺涨跌幅+0.60%。本周 328 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the defense and military industry [4]. Core Insights - The core viewpoint emphasizes that domestic trade and military trade continue to drive demand in the industry [10][48]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The "New Era of China's National Security" white paper was released on May 12, outlining China's strategic focus on national security and its interaction with global stability [48]. - Recent defense sales agreements were made with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, totaling approximately $4.3 billion, indicating strong international demand for military equipment [49][50][51]. Market Performance - The military industry index (801740) decreased by 1.18% from May 12 to May 16, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 1.12% [19]. - The military index has increased by 0.68% since 2025, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has decreased by 1.16%, showing relative strength in the long term [21]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment lines: domestic trade, foreign trade, and self-sufficiency [54]. - Domestic Trade: Companies such as Tianqin Equipment, Gaode Infrared, and others are highlighted [54]. - Foreign Trade: Companies like Guangdong Hongda and Aerospace Rainbow are recommended [55]. - Self-Sufficiency: Companies involved in commercial engines and nuclear fusion are noted [56]. Financial Insights - As of May 16, the military industry index has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 65.05, indicating a high valuation but potential for recovery in demand by 2025 [53][38]. - Passive fund inflows into military ETFs have increased, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant progress in stem cell therapy across multiple indications, suggesting a focus on companies like Jiuzhitang and Zhongyuan Qihe [3][5]. - The investment strategy is centered around three main themes: innovation, recovery, and policy support, with a strong emphasis on innovative drugs as the most clear long-term trend in the pharmaceutical sector [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Focus on Pharmaceutical Combinations - The recommended investment combination outperformed the pharmaceutical index by 2.8 percentage points and the broader market by 3.1 percentage points last week [12]. 2. Stem Cell Therapy: Policy and Progress - China's regenerative medicine has reached a world-leading level, with clear industry policies marking a golden development period for stem cell therapy [17]. - Multiple indications are seeing critical advancements, with expectations for key data releases this year [17]. - The first domestically approved stem cell therapy was launched in January 2025, marking a historic turning point for the industry [6][17]. 3. Weekly Market Review and Hotspot Tracking (May 12-16, 2025) - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rose by 1.4%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.3 percentage points, ranking 10th among CITIC's primary industry classifications [61]. - The pharmaceutical sub-sectors showed positive performance, with chemical raw materials up by 2.79% and traditional Chinese medicine up by 2.01% [64].