Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and the stock market, which has been a clear directive from the central government since September 2024. The focus on building high-quality housing is expected to drive a wave of development in this sector [4][47] - The report suggests that the real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with various local governments implementing policies to support housing demand and stabilize the market [47] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.3%, the ChiNext Index by 1.5%, and the CSI 300 Index by 1.5%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) increased by 0.3% during the week [5][8] - In terms of individual stocks, *ST Nanzhi saw a significant increase of 14.6%, while ST Shenyuan experienced a decline of 6.9% [5][8] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of June 28 to July 4, 42 key cities recorded a total new housing transaction of 3.08 million square meters, a decrease of 2.5% from the previous week. Year-to-date, the cumulative transaction volume has decreased by 2.7% year-on-year [14][18] - For July, as of the week of July 1 to July 4, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 1.07 million square meters, an increase of 33.3% month-on-month but a decrease of 17.1% year-on-year [18] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, 21 key cities recorded a total of 1.96 million square meters in second-hand housing transactions, a decrease of 9.1% from the previous week. Year-to-date, the cumulative transaction volume has increased by 20.5% year-on-year [30][34] - For July, as of the week of July 1 to July 4, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 1.21 million square meters, an increase of 51.2% month-on-month but a decrease of 13.3% year-on-year [34] Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized the need for local governments to effectively utilize real estate regulation policies to promote a stable and healthy market. Various cities are implementing measures to support housing demand, including easing housing fund policies [47][48] - Specific measures include the extension of housing purchase subsidies in Wuhan until the end of 2025 and the relaxation of housing fund loan policies in cities like Nanjing and Guangzhou [47][48] Company Announcements - In June, major real estate companies reported significant declines in sales, with Yuexiu Real Estate at 10.8 billion yuan (down 29% year-on-year), Poly Developments at 29.01 billion yuan (down 31% year-on-year), and China Overseas Development at 29.71 billion yuan (down 36.3% year-on-year) [50][51] - Financing activities included Yuexiu Real Estate applying to issue bonds up to 9.6 billion yuan and Vanke A borrowing 6.249 billion yuan from its largest shareholder [50][51]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The "anti-involution" trend may drive the cement industry's supply and demand to bottom out earlier. The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and improve product quality, which may lead to a reduction in actual cement production capacity from over 2.1 billion tons in 2023 to 1.7 billion tons, potentially restoring capacity utilization rates to over 70% [5][18] - The demand for high-end electronic fabrics is underestimated due to the surge in computing power driven by AI. The need for advanced materials is increasing, with domestic companies achieving breakthroughs in Low-DK and Low-CTE electronic fabrics, indicating a significant growth opportunity in this sector [5] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index rose by 4.0%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.4% [9] - Key stocks with significant gains include Zaiseng Technology (+37.1%), Honghe Technology (+23.9%), and Zhongcai Technology (+20.7%) [9] 2. Data Tracking 2.1 Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement nationwide is 348.5 RMB/ton, down 4.5 RMB/ton month-on-month and down 40.8 RMB/ton year-on-year [18] - The cement inventory ratio is 65.7%, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month and down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [18] 2.2 Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1274.3 RMB/ton, down 4.6 RMB/ton month-on-month and down 438.8 RMB/ton year-on-year [39] - The total inventory of key production enterprises in 13 provinces is 59 million heavy boxes, down 2.5% month-on-month and up 7.7% year-on-year [39] 2.3 Photovoltaic Glass - The average price of 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 10.7 RMB/sqm, down 0.6 RMB/sqm month-on-month and down 4.6 RMB/sqm year-on-year [44] - The number of production lines for photovoltaic glass is 435, with a total daily melting capacity of 94,390 tons, down 4.0% month-on-month and down 17.0% year-on-year [44] 2.4 Glass Fiber - The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn is 4680.0 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month and up 15.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [52] - The average price of electronic yarn is 9100.0 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month and down 50.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [52] 2.5 Carbon Fiber - The average price of large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 RMB/kg, unchanged month-on-month and down 5.0 RMB/kg year-on-year [56] - The average operating rate of carbon fiber enterprises is 59.94%, down 0.19 percentage points month-on-month and up 13.54 percentage points year-on-year [56] 3. Investment Analysis - The investment strategy suggests that 2025 will be a turning point for listed companies, while 2026 will be a turning point for the industry. The report recommends focusing on companies in the high-growth sectors and those benefiting from the Belt and Road Initiative [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the power equipment industry [4] Core Insights - The dual carbon strategy emphasizes the coexistence of highly clean power generation and highly electrified power consumption, with the grid serving as a crucial link between the two [4][7] - The development of ultra-high voltage (UHV) technology is essential for achieving carbon neutrality, but progress has been slower than expected [4][8] - The distribution network is critical for renewable energy consumption, yet investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period has fallen short of expectations [4][39] Summary by Sections Ultra-High Voltage (UHV) - UHV is a key component of the dual carbon strategy, with a planned investment of 380 billion yuan for over 30,000 kilometers of lines and a capacity of 340 million kilovolt-amperes [8] - The actual progress of UHV projects has been below expectations, with only eight projects likely to be completed by 2025 [16][18] - The shift towards flexible direct current technology is noted, as it allows for higher proportions of renewable energy to be transmitted [22][24] Distribution Network - The distribution network's role has evolved significantly post-dual carbon strategy, requiring upgrades to accommodate distributed energy resources [39][40] - Despite a consensus on the need for increased investment in the distribution network, actual investment levels have been lower than anticipated during the 14th Five-Year Plan [47] - The rapid growth of distributed solar power has led to challenges in the capacity of the distribution network, necessitating further enhancements [50]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance, indicating a positive outlook based on strong growth in bancassurance and low sensitivity of net asset return [5][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that China Pacific Insurance's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18.1% year-on-year to 9.63 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with net assets declining by 9.5% to 263.6 billion yuan, reflecting a mixed performance [5][6]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to two main factors: a decrease in insurance service performance and a slight drop in total investment return [6]. - The report anticipates that the decline in net assets will narrow within the year due to the alignment of interest rates on government bonds [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, insurance service income decreased by 10.6% to 8.79 billion yuan, while investment performance dropped by 13.2% to 4.69 billion yuan [6]. - The total investment asset scale grew by 21.5% year-on-year to 2.73 trillion yuan, with a comprehensive investment return rate increasing by 3.3 percentage points to 6% [8]. Life Insurance Segment - The bancassurance channel has seen rapid growth, with new business value from this channel increasing from 3.34 billion yuan in 2022 to 10.87 billion yuan in 2024, contributing 25.2% to the total new business value [7]. - The individual insurance channel has faced challenges, with the average number of agents declining significantly from 525,000 in 2021 to 184,000 in 2024 [7]. Investment Strategy - The report notes a high proportion of OCI (Other Comprehensive Income) assets, which increased by 4.2 percentage points to 64% in 2024, indicating a diversified investment strategy [8][23]. - The duration of fixed-income assets has been extended to 11.4 years, significantly reducing the sensitivity of net assets to interest rate changes [8][27]. Dividend Policy - The dividend policy has been clarified to consider operational profit growth and stable investment contributions, indicating a positive outlook for shareholder returns [9]. - The core solvency ratio improved by 10 percentage points to 140% in Q1 2025, supported by an increase in core secondary capital [9][28]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 42.8 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of -4.8% [10][11]. - The estimated intrinsic value per share is expected to rise from 64.87 yuan in 2025 to 80.00 yuan by 2027, with corresponding P/EV ratios decreasing over the forecast period [11].

Fixed Income - The overall credit spread across various industries has compressed, with the AA agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector experiencing a significant reduction of 9 basis points [2][9] - The issuance rates for AA-rated industrial bonds and AAA-rated financial bonds have decreased significantly, while the issuance rate for AA-rated urban investment bonds has increased [7] - The market is optimistic about credit bonds yielding over 2%, suggesting investors should consider extending duration and exploring opportunities in the newly approved science and technology innovation bond ETFs [10] Maternal and Infant Industry - Recent government policies aimed at encouraging childbirth, such as childcare subsidies and housing benefits, are expected to stimulate the maternal and infant industry [12] - The maternal and infant consumption market in China is projected to reach 762.99 billion yuan in 2024, with a steady growth trend from 2018 to 2024 [12] - The market for maternal and infant chain stores is growing, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.1% expected from 2019 to 2024, indicating significant room for growth in lower-tier cities [12][13] Transportation Industry - The Southeast Asian e-commerce sector, particularly TikTok Shop, has shown substantial growth, benefiting logistics companies in the region [16][17] - The civil aviation sector is entering a peak travel season, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 21.01 million in the first month of the summer travel period [19] - The introduction of autonomous delivery vehicles by companies like Shentong and JD Logistics is expected to enhance delivery efficiency and reduce costs significantly [18][29] Deep Sea Economy - The deep-sea economy is gaining attention, with the national marine production value projected to reach 10.54 trillion yuan in 2024, growing at a rate of 5.9% [34] - The marine engineering equipment manufacturing sector is experiencing rapid growth, with an expected increase in value added from 1,032 billion yuan in 2024 to 1,126 billion yuan in 2025 [34] - There are 11 companies listed on the North Exchange involved in the deep-sea economy, indicating a growing interest in this sector [34][35] AI Applications - The AI companionship product "EVE" has begun testing, highlighting the advancement of AI applications in various sectors such as e-commerce, gaming, and education [12] - Major tech companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance are continuously iterating on foundational technologies and products, indicating a competitive landscape in AI development [12] Shipping and Logistics - The shipping industry is expected to benefit from OPEC+'s production increase, which may enhance the demand for oil transportation [23][31] - The logistics sector is seeing a shift towards more efficient operations, with companies like Shenzhen International and DeBang Logistics poised for growth due to strategic transformations [30] - The overall shipping market is recovering, with environmental regulations driving the retirement of older vessels, thus improving market conditions [31][32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The pig price has retreated from its high, with the latest price at 14.94 CNY/kg and the average weight at 128.64 kg. The complete cost for leading enterprises has decreased to around 12 CNY/kg, indicating a potential for profit maintenance and valuation recovery [6][17][18] - The report emphasizes a shift from cyclical thinking to focusing on financial performance, suggesting that investment should transition from "cyclical thinking" to "quality and price" [18] - The report recommends focusing on companies with a "platform + ecosystem" model, highlighting DeKang Agriculture and Livestock as a representative, along with leading pig farming companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [18] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - The latest pig price is 14.94 CNY/kg, with a slight increase in average weight to 128.64 kg. The price of 15 kg piglets remains stable at around 530 CNY/head. The industry is experiencing a short-term rebound in prices after a slight decline [6][17] - The official number of breeding sows in May was 40.42 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.15%, indicating a stable production capacity [7][17] - The report suggests that the government's commitment to stabilizing pig prices is strong, and capacity regulation may continue to increase [7][17] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of parent stock chicks remains high, with the latest price at 47.93 CNY, a week-on-week increase of 5.25%. The price of broilers is 2.95 CNY/kg, down 12% week-on-week and 18% year-on-year [19] - The industry faces a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, leading to a reduction in production capacity among breeding farms [19] - The report highlights two main lines of focus: quality imported breeding stock leaders and fully integrated industry leaders [19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Hai Da Group, noting a cash flow turning point and high overseas growth potential. The demand for aquaculture feed is expected to recover in 2025 [20][22] - The report indicates that the domestic capital expansion phase has ended, and leading companies are entering a new phase of stable cash flow [21][22] 4. Pet Industry - The report discusses the impact of potential tariffs on the pet industry, suggesting that the actual impact will be limited due to high profit margins and overseas factory layouts [23] - Companies with strong performance in their own brands, such as Guibao and Zhongchong, are highlighted as key focuses [23] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA report indicates a slight reduction in soybean planting area for 2025, with a forecast of 83.4 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 4% [24] - The report emphasizes that agricultural products are less affected by tariffs, and a reduction in imports may help prices rise from low levels [24] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 3982 points, up 1.54% from the previous week. The Agricultural and Forestry Index closed at 2729 points, up 2.55% [25][28] - The report notes that the aquaculture sector performed the best with a 5.13% increase [25]

证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 07 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | 2025 | 年 | 07 | 月 | | 07 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | 6.12 | | | | 一 年 内 高 最 低 | 最 | / | | | | 7.43/3.38 | | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 6,612.98 | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 6,612.42 | | | | 总股 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the maternal and infant industry, driven by government policies aimed at encouraging childbirth and stimulating market growth [2][3]. Core Insights - The implementation of various supportive policies by the government is expected to boost the maternal and infant industry, with a projected increase in birth rates and consumer spending in this sector [6][9]. - The maternal and infant consumption market in China is anticipated to grow significantly, reaching approximately 76,299 billion yuan in 2024, with a potential increase to 89,149 billion yuan by 2027 [9][11]. - The report highlights the rapid development of the infant food market, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9% from 2019 to 2024, leading to a market size of about 55.91 billion yuan in 2024 [25][29]. - The maternal and infant retail chain market is also expanding, with a projected growth from 587.4 billion yuan in 2019 to 906.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 9.1% [32][34]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The Chinese government has introduced various policies to encourage childbirth, including subsidies and tax reductions, which are expected to stabilize and potentially increase the birth rate [6][7]. - The focus on modern parenting and quality of life among younger parents is driving demand for diverse maternal and infant products [6][9]. Market Growth - The maternal and infant consumption market is projected to grow to 76,299 billion yuan in 2024, marking a significant recovery in birth rates with 9.54 million births expected [9][11]. - The infant food market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected market size of 55.91 billion yuan in 2024 and a CAGR of 8.9% from 2019 to 2024 [25][29]. Industry Segmentation - The report outlines the structure of the maternal and infant industry, which includes upstream food production, midstream manufacturing of products, and downstream retail channels [13][14]. - The dairy industry is also highlighted, with a projected market size of 5,216.70 billion yuan in 2024, despite a slight decline in milk production due to market imbalances [16][20]. Company Analysis - The report identifies key companies in the maternal and infant sector listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, including Knight Dairy and Wuxi Jinghai, along with potential listings such as Southern Dairy and Ying's Holdings [44][45]. - The overall market capitalization of the consumer service sector on the Beijing Stock Exchange has increased, with a median market cap of 123.92 billion yuan [52][54].

Group 1 - The central government emphasizes the high-quality development of the marine economy, with the national marine GDP expected to reach 11.18 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9% in 2024 [4][11][20] - The marine economy's contribution to the national GDP is projected to be 7.8%, with 15 marine industries achieving a total added value of 4.3733 trillion yuan in 2024, growing by 7.5% [21][22] - The deep-sea technology sector is identified as a key area for development, with significant investments and strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing capabilities in underwater observation, construction, and resource extraction [9][30][31] Group 2 - The report identifies 11 companies within the deep-sea economic industry chain listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, including Audiwei (ultrasonic underwater ranging sensors), Wantong Hydraulic (hydraulic cylinders for offshore drilling platforms), and Klete (ventilation and air treatment systems) [40] - The marine engineering equipment manufacturing industry in China is experiencing a recovery, with an expected added value of 112.6 billion yuan in 2025, following a growth of 9.1% to 103.2 billion yuan in 2024 [30][33] - The report highlights the increasing market interest in deep-sea technology, with emerging sectors such as deep-sea energy storage and carbon sequestration expected to drive future growth [31][32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the strong growth in Southeast Asia's e-commerce logistics, particularly benefiting from TikTok Shop's significant GMV growth in Q2 2025, with increases of 93% in Thailand, 145% in Indonesia, 191% in Vietnam, 245% in the Philippines, 211% in Malaysia, and 30% in Singapore [4] - The report notes that the civil aviation sector is entering a peak travel season, with over 21.01 million domestic flight tickets booked in the first month of the summer travel period, indicating a 5.2% increase in flight numbers compared to the previous year [6][7] - The report emphasizes the ongoing demand resilience in the express delivery sector, with major players like SF Express and JD Logistics expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost reduction efforts [15] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - TikTok Shop's Q2 2025 GMV growth indicates a robust demand for Southeast Asian express delivery services, with Jitu's market share reaching 28.6% [4] - Shentong plans to deploy 2,000 unmanned vehicles in 2025 to enhance delivery capabilities [5] - JD Logistics has launched a self-developed VAN unmanned light truck, which can save approximately 60% in costs compared to traditional transport [5] Civil Aviation - The civil aviation sector is experiencing a peak in passenger flow, with a significant increase in ticket bookings and expected price hikes for popular routes [6] - The Civil Aviation Administration has established a leadership group to promote the development of general aviation and low-altitude economy [7] - The resumption of aircraft engine exports from the US to China signals a thaw in trade tensions [7] Shipping and Ports - OPEC+ plans to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, aiming to regain market share [8] - China Shipbuilding's merger with China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry has been approved, indicating consolidation in the industry [9] - The Shanghai export container freight index has decreased by 5.3%, while oil tanker freight rates have also declined [10][11] Road and Rail - The report notes a slight decrease in toll revenue for Shenzhen Expressway in May, while the overall logistics operations remain stable [14] - National railway freight transport has shown a slight increase, indicating steady logistics performance [14] Overall Market Performance - The A-share transportation index decreased by 0.33% during the week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.40% [20] - The report provides a detailed breakdown of various sub-sectors, highlighting the performance of express delivery, aviation, shipping, and logistics [22][25][49][55]