医药生物/化学制药 华东医药（000963.SZ） 创新药收入快速增长，多产品步入收获期 2025 年 08 月 21 日 相关研究报告 《创新转型再出发，多产品步入收获 期—公司深度报告》-2025.6.2 | 余汝意（分析师） | 余克清（分析师） | 刘艺（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | yuruyi@kysec.cn | yukeqing@kysec.cn | liuyi1@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523070002 | 证书编号：S0790525010002 | 证书编号：S0790124070022 | 创新药收入快速增长，多产品步入收获期，维持"买入"评级 2025H1 公司收入 216.75 亿元（同比+3.39%，以下为同比口径）；归母净利润 18.15 亿元（+7.00%）；扣非归母净利润 17.62 亿元（+8.40%）。2025H1 公司毛利率 33.9% （+1.2pct）；净利率 8.32%（+0.27pct）。2025H1 销售费用率 14.90%（-0.72pct）； 管理费用率 3.35%（-0.06pct）；研发费用率 4.6 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The brand momentum remains strong, awaiting the release of automotive production capacity and the initiation of a new vehicle cycle [1] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards to 415 billion, 555 billion, and 686 billion CNY, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 52%, 34%, and 24% [1][4] - The current stock price of 52.55 HKD corresponds to a PE ratio of 30.1, 22.6, and 18.2 for the years 2025-2027 [1] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2023A is 270,970 million CNY, with a year-on-year change of -3.2% [8] - Net profit for 2023A is 19,273 million CNY, with a year-on-year change of 126.3% [8] - Gross margin for 2023A is 21.2%, and net margin is 7.1% [8] - The diluted EPS for 2025E is projected at 1.59 CNY, with a PE ratio of 30.1 [8] - The company aims to achieve profitability in its automotive and new business segments in the second half of 2025 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4][11] Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook on the mobile optical upgrade cycle and the acceleration of automotive optical applications, maintaining a "Buy" rating. The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 has been revised upwards due to improvements in ASP and gross margin in the mobile business [4][6] - The company is expected to benefit from the release of flagship models in the second half of 2025, with mobile revenue projected to grow by 5%-10% year-on-year [5][6] Financial Summary - The company's total revenue is projected to increase from 31.681 billion in 2023 to 41.823 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.2% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 1.099 billion in 2023 to 3.810 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 41.1% [7] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 14.5% in 2023 to 20.5% in 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [7] Business Segments - Mobile business revenue for the first half of 2025 was 132 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 2%, primarily driven by ASP increases in modules and lenses [5] - Automotive ADAS revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 34 billion, up 18% year-on-year, with expectations for over 20% growth in 2025 [6] - XR revenue for the first half of 2025 was 12 billion, reflecting a 21% increase, mainly from smart glass projects [6]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The report highlights that after the implementation of the "Equal Tariff 2.0," industry tariffs may become a key new variable in Trump's tariff policy, aiming to reduce the trade deficit and promote manufacturing job recovery in the U.S. [5][8][9] - The U.S. has reached trade agreements with several countries, but most are temporary framework agreements lacking specific content, with significant tariff rate disparities remaining [5][6][7]. - The report notes that the U.S. collected approximately $94.719 billion in tariffs from April to July 2025, indicating a partial achievement of the goal to supplement U.S. fiscal revenue through tariffs [8]. Group 2: Industry Performance - The report indicates that in July 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles in nine European countries reached 217,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 41.6%, with a penetration rate of 27.5% [32]. - The report suggests that the European electric vehicle market is expected to grow further due to new carbon emission regulations and the introduction of new electric vehicle models by various manufacturers [34]. - The agricultural sector, particularly companies like BioShares, is experiencing growth driven by accelerated vaccine development and a strong product pipeline, with revenue for the first half of 2025 reaching 620 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.28% [36][39]. Group 3: Company-Specific Updates - The report states that TaxFriend Co. is expected to benefit from the deepening of fiscal and tax reforms, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 212 million, 332 million, and 498 million yuan respectively [46]. - JiBit Co. reported a significant revenue increase of 28.49% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, driven by the success of new game launches and a high dividend payout ratio of 73% [51][52]. - JiaBiyou Co. anticipates continued growth in the second half of 2025, with a projected net profit of 192 million yuan for 2025, supported by favorable market conditions and ongoing restructuring efforts [55][56].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is accelerating the research and development of non-epidemic vaccines, with strong growth momentum from multiple new products [3][5] - Despite short-term pressure on performance, the company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 188 million, 352 million, and 508 million yuan respectively [3][4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 54.2, 29.0, and 20.1 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue was 620 million yuan (up 1.28% year-on-year), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 60 million yuan (down 50.84% year-on-year) [3][4] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 268 million yuan (up 1.58% year-on-year), with a net profit of -16 million yuan [3][4] - The company’s R&D expenses in the first half of 2025 were 73 million yuan, an increase of 25.62% year-on-year [5] Product Development - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure, with significant growth in core products such as non-foot-and-mouth disease vaccines, which saw revenue growth exceeding 20% [4] - The company has established a dedicated technical service team for poultry vaccines, leading to a nearly 40% year-on-year increase in revenue from key poultry vaccine products [4] - The company is also expanding its overseas market presence, with sales of pig foot-and-mouth disease vaccines in Vietnam doubling year-on-year [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a steady growth in feed sales and improved cost management, leading to a recovery in breeding profits. The revenue for H1 2025 reached 17.407 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.27%, with a net profit of 233 million yuan, marking a return to profitability. The growth is attributed to increased sales in feed, poultry, and pig farming, alongside lower prices for key feed ingredients like soybean meal and corn, which helped reduce breeding costs [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 17.407 billion yuan, up 16.27% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 233 million yuan, a significant turnaround from losses in the previous year. Q2 2025 saw revenue of 9.699 billion yuan, a 25.17% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 151 million yuan, reflecting a 68.23% growth [4][8] Feed Business - The company’s feed sales reached 2.1 million tons in H1 2025, a 15.70% increase year-on-year. The breakdown includes pig feed at 740,000 tons (up 23.54%), poultry feed at 940,000 tons (up 12.17%), and ruminant feed at 370,000 tons (up 15.99%). The company has effectively linked its pig feed and breeding operations, with bulk pig feed sales increasing by 34% [5] Poultry Business - The company raised 380 million white feather broilers in H1 2025, with an average weight of 2.9-3 kg and a survival rate of 96-97%. The slaughter volume for white feather broilers reached 460 million, a 9.52% increase year-on-year, with a target of 960 million for the year. The sales of chicken parts in high-value channels increased by 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, and the production of processed and cooked products rose by 40% [6] Pig Farming Business - The company had a breeding stock of 58,000 sows as of H1 2025, with 47,000 being productive sows. The company slaughtered 840,000 pigs in H1 2025, with 740,000 being fattened pigs. The expected slaughter volume for 2025 is projected to reach 1.8-2 million pigs, indicating potential for profit expansion [7] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 559 million yuan, 748 million yuan, and 812 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.61, 0.82, and 0.89 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 14.5, 10.8, and 10.0 for the next three years [4][8]

Trade Agreements Overview - The Trump administration has reached trade agreements with the UK, EU, Japan, and South Korea, covering 38.6% of total US goods imports and 49.8% of the US trade deficit in 2024 (excluding the UK) [3] - The US-UK trade agreement includes a 10% base tariff and industry export quotas, with ongoing negotiations on specific details [4] - The US-Vietnam trade agreement proposes a 20% base tariff and a 40% tariff on re-exported goods, reflecting a significant imbalance in tariff rates [5] Tariff Structures and Economic Impact - The US-Japan trade agreement imposes a 15% base tariff on exports, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the US, aiming to boost domestic industrial production [5] - The US-EU agreement also includes a 15% base tariff, with the EU required to invest $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion in US energy by 2028 [5] - The tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper range from 25% to 50%, with an estimated $70.7 billion in tariffs expected from these metals in 2024 [5] Future Implications - Industry tariffs are likely to become a central focus of Trump's trade policy, aimed at reducing the trade deficit and promoting domestic manufacturing [5] - The potential for increased tariffs on sectors such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and rare minerals is anticipated, with ongoing investigations into these industries [5] - The overall tariff revenue for the US is projected to exceed $28 billion by July 2025, indicating a significant reliance on tariff income [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is a leading provider of financial and tax information services in China, expected to benefit from the deepening reforms in the financial and tax system, achieving growth through both G-end and B-end dual drivers. The integration of AI in financial and tax services is anticipated to open up long-term growth opportunities [5] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 922 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 71.01 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.52% [6] - The company's smart financial and tax business generated operating revenue of 621 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.95%. The number of active enterprise users on the platform reached 11.8 million, a growth of 10.28% from the beginning of the year [7] - The G-end business showed signs of recovery, with digital government services generating operating revenue of 300 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.60% [8] Earnings Forecast - The revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 212 million, 332 million, and 498 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.52, 0.82, and 1.22 yuan per share. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 104.0, 66.4, and 44.3 times for the respective years [5][9] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from data value services and products reached 91.02 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%. The company has established five main product lines in the tax customer market, achieving rapid promotion [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, with a series of policies taking effect, the economy is likely to remain stable and inflation is expected to rise continuously. The seesaw effect between core assets and dividend assets may switch, and the two are expected to enter a stage of resonant growth. The convertible bond market is expected to continue its upward trend, and the style may shift to core assets [3][4][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Economic Possibilities in the Second Half of 2025 - **Scenario 1: Economic stability and inflation recovery** - In this scenario, the heavy - weight stocks of various industries are expected to benefit from economic stability and inflation recovery, and core assets are likely to have an upward trend. If market liquidity is abundant, core assets and small - cap stocks may rise in resonance; if liquidity is limited, funds may rotate from small - cap stocks to core assets. For example, from 2016 - 2017, the economy was stable and inflation recovered, but market liquidity was limited, resulting in the rise of core assets and the decline of small - cap stocks [7]. - **Scenario 2: Economic slowdown and no inflation recovery** - Similar to the period from 2022 to September 2024, small - cap stocks may lead the rise initially, but they will experience a supplementary decline later because their rise cannot deviate from the economic fundamentals for a long time. For example, in April 2022, February 2024, and August - September 2024, small - cap stocks showed such trends [8]. - **Scenario 3: Economic slowdown, inflation decline, but market expectation repair** - Similar to the second half of 2014, core assets are expected to follow up and rise, like from November to December 2014 [2]. Seesaw Effect between Core Assets and Dividend Assets - From 2019 to April 2025, there was an obvious seesaw effect between core assets and dividend assets. From 2019 to January 2021, core assets rose while dividend assets fluctuated; from February 2021 to April 2025, dividend assets continued to rise while core assets declined significantly. However, in the second half of 2025, the seesaw effect may switch, and the two may rise in resonance [3][4]. - The rise of dividend assets from 2022 to April 2025 was mainly due to the certainty of high dividend yields. But as the valuation repair is gradually completed, the driving logic of dividend assets may shift to the profit factor. For example, the coal industry stopped rising after 2024, and the bank's yield has been low since July 2025, indicating a shift in the market's focus to the profit logic [4]. Convertible Bond Views - Considering that the economy is expected to remain stable in the second half of 2025 and inflation is expected to rise under the anti - involution policy, convertible bonds are expected to continue their upward trend. In terms of style, the economic stability in the second half of 2025 is conducive to the rise of core assets. Also, as the logic of dividend assets may change, dividend assets, as leading companies in some fields, are expected to become generalized core assets, and the two types of assets may rise in resonance [6]. Small - Cap Stock Market - The small - cap stock market is mainly driven by industrial trends. For example, in the new energy industry from 2021 - 2022, despite a short - term adjustment in the first quarter of 2022, it rose significantly again later due to the good development of the industrial trend. However, the industry began to decline continuously after the supply - demand pattern changed in the fourth quarter of 2022 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved significant revenue growth in H1 2025, with revenue of 2.518 billion yuan, up 28.49% year-on-year, and a net profit of 645 million yuan, up 24.50% year-on-year. The growth was primarily driven by the strong performance of new games such as "Wanjian Changsheng" and "Zhangjian Chuanqi" [3][4] - The company plans to continue its high dividend policy, proposing a cash dividend of 66 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a payout ratio of 73% [3] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been raised, with expected figures of 1.499 billion, 1.928 billion, and 2.312 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 20.81, 26.77, and 32.10 yuan [3][4] Financial Summary - In H1 2025, the gross margin was 92.3%, an increase of 4.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of self-developed games [4] - The company’s operating expenses for H1 2025 were 33.2% for sales, 8.2% for management, and 14.2% for R&D, with sales expenses increasing due to marketing investments in new games [4] - The company’s new games have shown strong performance in both domestic and overseas markets, with "Zhangjian Chuanqi" ranking high on various charts and "Wanjian Changsheng" achieving over one million registered users in its first week [5] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.193 billion, 6.241 billion, and 6.780 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 40.5%, 20.2%, and 8.6% respectively [6][8] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 1.499 billion, 1.928 billion, and 2.312 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 58.7%, 28.6%, and 19.9% [6][8] - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain strong at around 92% for the next few years, indicating robust profitability [6][8]