Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for major companies in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Zhongman Petroleum, and New Natural Gas [4]. Core Views - The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia has led to increased oil prices due to attacks on Russian oil facilities, impacting supply chains and causing fuel shortages in Russia [1][8]. - Iraq's oil production and export flexibility are expected to improve, which may enhance compliance with OPEC+ production quotas in the short term [1]. - The report anticipates that oil prices will remain volatile in the short term due to geopolitical factors and OPEC+'s concentrated pricing power [1][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" recommendation for key players in the oil and gas sector, highlighting their stable performance and high dividend yields [4]. Market Overview - As of September 26, 2025, Brent crude oil futures settled at $70.13 per barrel, up 5.17% week-on-week, while WTI futures settled at $65.72 per barrel, up 4.85% [9][36]. - The U.S. crude oil production increased to 13.5 million barrels per day, with refinery throughput rising to 16.48 million barrels per day [9][10]. Company Performance - The report highlights the performance of various companies, with China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation being recommended for their strong fundamentals and dividend policies [4][12]. Oil Supply and Demand - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased, with commercial crude oil stocks at 41.475 million barrels, down 61,000 barrels week-on-week [10]. - The report notes that geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ decisions will continue to influence oil supply and demand dynamics [1][8]. Natural Gas Market - The NYMEX natural gas futures price closed at $2.86 per million British thermal units, down 1.99% week-on-week, while Northeast Asia's LNG price was $11.21 per million British thermal units, down 3.25% [9][44].

Group 1 - The report highlights the top ten convertible bonds for October, emphasizing companies like Zhengfan Technology, Wentai Technology, and Huanxu Electronics, which are positioned for growth in their respective sectors [1][2][57]. - Zhengfan Technology's non-equipment business is a key driver of its continuous performance growth, focusing on high-tech industries such as integrated circuits and biopharmaceuticals [8][9]. - Wentai Technology is recognized as a global leader in automotive semiconductors, with a strong focus on high ASP products that support its future growth [38][39]. Group 2 - Huanxu Electronics provides comprehensive manufacturing services for electronic products, with a strong presence in cloud computing and data centers, indicating robust demand in these sectors [46][48]. - The report suggests that the "反内卷" (anti-involution) trend may create opportunities for midstream sectors like new energy and steel, which could see price recoveries [2][58]. - The report anticipates that the inflow of fixed-income funds into the convertible bond market will continue, supporting valuations and reducing the likelihood of significant declines in October [2][58]. Group 3 - The report identifies specific convertible bonds to watch, including those from companies like TianNeng Heavy Industry, which is a domestic leader in wind power tower manufacturing, and is expected to benefit from increasing demand in the renewable energy sector [42][43]. - The agricultural chemical sector is highlighted through Hebang Biological, which is experiencing improved profitability due to favorable supply-demand dynamics in glyphosate products [24][27]. - The report also notes that companies like Youfa Group are poised to benefit from the new round of supply-side reforms, enhancing their national and international market presence [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The stock option incentive plan reflects the company's confidence, with a target for non-net profit growth of 10%/60%/100%/150% from 2024 to 2028, indicating a compound annual growth rate of approximately 25.74% over four years [2][4]. - The exercise price for the stock options is set at 66.61 CNY, which is 80% of the average stock price prior to the announcement [3]. - The incentive plan is primarily directed towards core management and key personnel, which is expected to enhance employee motivation and drive long-term development [3]. Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for the company are 1.68 billion CNY in 2025, 2.27 billion CNY in 2026, and 3.03 billion CNY in 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 45, 33, and 25 respectively [4][5]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 5.51 billion CNY in 2024 to 10.42 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of -27.3%, 25.3%, 25.3%, and 20.4% for the respective years [5][10]. - The company's gross margin is projected to improve from 55.77% in 2024 to 59.87% in 2027 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in the coal sector, highlighting their strong performance and growth potential [2][9][10]. Core Insights - The coal prices are expected to stabilize and potentially rise due to supply constraints and seasonal demand increases, with projections indicating prices may exceed 900 RMB/ton by year-end [1][6]. - Focus on high spot price elasticity stocks is recommended, particularly those in Shanxi province, which has completed overproduction governance [1][9]. - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for coking coal prices driven by pre-holiday inventory replenishment and the upcoming peak demand season [9][10]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - Coal prices have shown fluctuations but are expected to stabilize as supply decreases and demand increases post-holiday [1][6]. - The report notes a significant reduction in coal production, with a monthly year-on-year decline exceeding 3% since July 2025 [1][6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights a reduction in coal supply due to stricter production checks, estimating a decrease of approximately 230 million tons from overproducing mines [1][6]. - Non-electric demand for coal is anticipated to rise quickly after the holiday, particularly benefiting the coal chemical sector [1][6]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. Lu'an Huanneng for high spot price elasticity [9]. 2. Jin控煤业 and Huayang Co. for stable performance and growth potential [9]. 3. Shanmei International for recovery in production [9]. 4. Industry leaders like China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy for robust performance [9]. 5. CGN Mining for its unique position in the nuclear power sector [9]. Price Trends - As of September 26, 2025, coal prices at Qinhuangdao Port reached 703 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 4 RMB/ton [7][9]. - Coking coal prices have also risen, with the main coking coal price at Jing Tang Port reported at 1750 RMB/ton, up 80 RMB/ton week-on-week [9][10].

Profit Performance - In the first eight months of 2025, China's industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 46,929.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%[1] - In August, the profit of industrial enterprises turned from a decline of 1.5% in July to a growth of 20.4%, marking the highest growth rate since December 2023[1] - When excluding the low base effect, the profit growth rate showed a marginal slowdown, decreasing from 1.3% in July to -0.5% in August[1] Factors Influencing Profit Growth - The significant improvement in revenue profit margins in August was primarily explained by the low base effect, with a performance of "volume up, price down, profit margin positive growth"[2] - The overall profit decline in upstream industries narrowed to -1.9% in August from -12.7% in July, indicating the best performance of upstream industries this year[2] - The profit growth rates for state-owned enterprises and private enterprises in August were 50.0% and 13.2%, respectively, highlighting a stronger response from state-owned enterprises to the "anti-involution" policy[5] Industry Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy has begun to reshape profit distribution, with upstream industries showing the most notable profit improvements due to quicker production adjustments[2] - The midstream profit growth rate remained stable at 10.3% in August, compared to 8.9% in July, while downstream sectors like pharmaceuticals and automotive manufacturing showed lackluster performance[5] - The analysis categorized industries into four quadrants based on their response to the "anti-involution" policy, indicating varying levels of price and production dynamics across sectors[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the shared mobility industry, particularly highlighting the growth potential of Cao Cao Mobility as a unique "three-in-one" autonomous driving operation platform [6]. Core Insights - The Chinese mobility market is the largest globally, with a projected market size of 8 trillion yuan in 2024, and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4% expected from 2025 to 2029 [1][10]. - Cao Cao Mobility, backed by Geely, is positioned as the second-largest shared mobility platform in China, achieving a gross transaction value (GTV) of 10.95 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 53.6% [2][3]. - The rise of aggregation platforms is reshaping the industry ecosystem, with the proportion of ride-hailing orders completed through these platforms expected to reach 53.9% by 2029, providing opportunities for second-tier companies to break through [1][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The Chinese mobility market is projected to reach 10.56 trillion yuan by 2029, with a CAGR of 5.4% from 2025 to 2029, driven by increasing demand in lower-tier markets and the expansion of shared mobility [10]. - The shared mobility market is rapidly expanding, with a forecasted growth from 344.4 billion yuan in 2024 to 804.2 billion yuan by 2029, representing a CAGR of 17.0% [13]. 2. Company Analysis - Cao Cao Mobility is the only "three-in-one" autonomous driving operation platform in China, leveraging significant synergies with Geely to build the largest customized vehicle fleet in the country [2][3]. - The company has a notable cost advantage with its customized vehicles, achieving a total cost of ownership (TCO) reduction of 33% and 40% compared to typical electric vehicles [2]. 3. Technological Developments - The report emphasizes the importance of autonomous driving technology, with Cao Cao Mobility planning to launch customized vehicles designed for Level 4 autonomous driving by the end of 2026, aiming for nationwide coverage [3][27]. - The market penetration of Robotaxi is expected to reach 20-60% between 2026 and 2032, indicating significant growth potential for autonomous driving services [3][41]. 4. Competitive Landscape - The report outlines a highly concentrated market with Didi Chuxing holding a 70.4% market share in 2024, while Cao Cao Mobility and T3 Mobility hold 5.4% and 5.3% respectively [16][17]. - The rise of aggregation platforms is leading to a decentralization of user traffic, allowing second-tier companies like Cao Cao Mobility to gain market share [19]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on the long-term development of the shared mobility industry, particularly on Cao Cao Mobility as a key player in the autonomous driving sector [3].

降息生变：警惕非农上修风险？ 2025 年 09 月 26 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：林彦 研究助理：武朔 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525030001 执业证号：S0100125070003 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：linyan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：wushuo@glms.com.cn ➢ 7 月以来非农的剧烈下滑持续牵动美联储与市场的神经。尽管失业率、薪资 等其他就业核心指标未显著恶化，但没有分歧的是，新增非农的持续走弱是迫使 美联储重新审视就业风险、在九月进行"风控型降息"的"罪魁祸首"。 ➢ 但我们认为，联储降息节奏可能比市场预期的线性降息路径要曲折。我们在 前期报告中持续提示，在四季度潜在通胀风险将成为连续宽松政策的"拦路虎"。 当前关于通胀的讨论已较为充分，具体可参考我们此前发布的报告《关税"悖论"， 真的越加越通缩？》、《保税区库存，美企避税的最后自留地》。 ➢ 在这篇报告中，我们将聚焦另一关键变量——就业，其是否存在向上修正的 可能，从而反向压制已计入定价的降息预期。 ➢ 今年以来非农数据" ...

Exchange Rate and Market Dynamics - Recent fluctuations in the offshore RMB have seen it appreciate to around 7.08 in mid-September before dropping below 7.14[3] - The RMB's recent depreciation is more pronounced compared to the USD's movements, indicating a shift in the RMB's elasticity[4] - The RMB has shown a "pro-cyclical" behavior, appreciating when the USD is under pressure and depreciating when the USD rebounds[4] Policy and Market Analysis - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has shifted its stance on the RMB, moving from a focus on stability to allowing greater elasticity post the May negotiations with the US[5] - Recent policy adjustments by the PBOC aim to stabilize the currency while managing economic pressures, avoiding excessive appreciation of the RMB[5] - The influx of southbound capital has increased RMB liquidity, contributing to a lower offshore RMB interest rate compared to the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR)[6] Risk Factors - Potential risks include significant changes in US trade policies and unexpected tariff expansions that could lead to a global economic slowdown[6]

Economic Overview - The "924" policy has transformed the A-share market from "ice-breaking" to a "slow bull" phase, but economic recovery faces complex challenges from both domestic and international fronts[4] - External factors include weakened U.S. import demand and declining global trade momentum, while internal pressures involve manufacturing investment nearing growth thresholds and diminishing effects of "two new" policies[4] Export Performance - September's low base will provide a natural buffer for export growth, with resilience in non-U.S. demand supporting exports despite a slowdown in U.S. imports[4] - Container throughput at Chinese ports has increased, indicating a diversified trade structure and support from non-U.S. economies[4] Industrial Production - Industrial value-added growth is expected to slow in September due to weak external demand and internal "anti-involution" policies[5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to narrow its decline, reflecting a potential turning point in industrial prices[5] Manufacturing and Retail - Manufacturing PMI is likely to rise in September due to seasonal factors, with a high probability of month-on-month increases[5] - Retail sales, particularly in home appliances and passenger vehicles, have entered negative growth territory, indicating a waning effect of "two new" policies and high base pressures[5] Real Estate and Investment - Real estate transactions remain at historical lows, with the "golden September and silver October" showing lackluster performance, although second-hand housing transactions exhibit resilience[6] - Manufacturing investment growth has slowed to 5.1% year-on-year, approaching the critical "around 5%" economic growth target, necessitating policy support for sustained growth[6] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment has faced downward pressure due to extreme weather and financing challenges, but recent indicators suggest a potential marginal improvement[7] - The upcoming policy measures are expected to mitigate investment downturns and support the annual economic growth target[7] Policy Outlook - There is potential for new policy tools to counteract current investment pressures and support the "around 5%" growth target[7] - Increased focus on technological innovation and support for emerging industries is anticipated ahead of the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session[7] Risk Factors - Risks include potential underperformance of policies, unexpected changes in domestic economic conditions, and fluctuations in export dynamics[7]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company has transformed into the "first stock in higher education," with its higher education business becoming the core revenue source, contributing significantly to its financial stability [1][4]. - The independent college transformation is underway, with good enrollment prospects due to high tuition fees and a favorable market environment [2][4]. - The company is strategically focused on its higher education business, with future growth expected from the ongoing construction of the second phase of the urban college project [2][3]. Company Overview - The company, originally engaged in application software and industry solutions, has evolved into a higher education provider through its partnership with Xi'an Jiaotong University, establishing the urban college in 2005 [1][10]. - The urban college has approximately 11,800 students and offers a diverse range of programs, with a strong emphasis on engineering and management disciplines [1][10]. - The company is actively advancing the second phase of the urban college project, which will increase enrollment capacity and improve educational offerings [1][10]. Industry Analysis - The independent college sector has seen significant growth, with over 106 independent colleges undergoing transformation from 2020 to 2025, primarily converting to private institutions [2][30]. - The high number of college entrance exam candidates in recent years supports the demand for independent colleges, which typically charge higher tuition fees [34]. - The independent colleges benefit from their association with well-known public universities, enhancing their attractiveness to prospective students [34]. Financial Analysis - The company has a relatively high asset-liability ratio, with figures of 60.86%, 63.94%, and 61.23% from 2023 to 2025 [3][51]. - The cash flow situation is strong, with a cash collection ratio exceeding 100% in recent years, indicating effective cash management [3][53]. - Profitability is improving, with gross margins around 51.55% to 52.94% and net margins between 12.19% and 16.28% from 2022 to 2025 [3][19]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Suggestions - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 3.13 billion, 3.38 billion, and 3.61 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.54, 0.63, and 0.69 yuan [4][5]. - The company is expected to maintain stable growth in its higher education business, supported by enrollment increases and tuition hikes [4][48].