Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Xiaomi Group-W (1810.HK) [7] Core Viewpoints - Xiaomi is transitioning from an "Internet company" to a "hardcore technology" company, with significant investments in self-developed chips and electric vehicles [2] - The launch of the Xiaomi 17 series and the introduction of customized automotive services are expected to enhance sales and profitability [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Product Launch and Innovation - On September 25, Xiaomi held its annual event, unveiling the Xiaomi 17 series, Xiaomi Pad 8 series, and various other products, including the Xiaomi TV S Pro Mini LED 2026 and Mi Home appliances [1] - The Xiaomi 17 series features a starting price of 4,499 RMB, equipped with a new 6.3-inch OLED screen and the fifth-generation Snapdragon 8 processor, showing a 20% performance improvement over the previous generation [3] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 509.30 billion RMB in 2025, 640.91 billion RMB in 2026, and 749.65 billion RMB in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 44.44 billion RMB, 64.05 billion RMB, and 81.83 billion RMB [6] - The expected P/E ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 29, 20, and 16, respectively [5] Automotive Business Development - The Xiaomi YU7 has achieved significant sales, with over 240,000 units locked in within 18 hours of launch, and it is noted for its impressive range and family-friendly features [4] - The introduction of customized services for the YU7 aims to enhance profit margins in the automotive sector [5]

⚫ 行业要闻 ⚫ 公司动态 ➢ 大智慧：9 月 25 日消息，公司董事会披露，湘财股份拟向公司全体换股股 东发行 A 股股票换股吸收合并大智慧，并同步配套募资；按双方 2024 年度审计 数据，本次交易各项指标均远超《上市公司重大资产重组管理办法》第十二条标 准，构成重大资产重组，且因湘财股份持有公司 9.50 %股份并存在董事交叉任 职，交易同时构成关联交易。 ➢ 合合信息：9 月 27 日消息，公司收到持股 5% 以上股东东方富海（芜湖） 股权投资基金（有限合伙）及其一致行动人东方富海（芜湖）二号股权投资基金 （有限合伙）的减持计划告知函。两基金因自身资金需求，拟于 2025 年 10 月 28 日至 2026 年 1 月 27 日，通过集中竞价或大宗交易方式合计减持不超过 4,200,000 股，约占公司总股本 3%。拟减持股份来源为 IPO 前取得及资本公积 转增股本获得的股份，减持价格将按届时市场价确定。 ⚫ 本周观点 计算机周报 20250928 从云栖大会看互联网大厂云 AI 战略趋势 2025 年 09 月 28 日 ⚫ 市场回顾 本周（9.22-9.26）沪深 300 指数上涨 1.07%， ...

Group 1 - The bond market sentiment is currently weak, with a poor profit effect, and significant downward movement in interest rates requires strong event-driven stimuli, such as large-scale bond purchases, central bank rate cuts, or significant declines in equity markets [1][8] - The 10-year government bond yield has been fluctuating around 1.8%, with potential for both upward and downward movement, but a rebound opportunity is more likely if the yield approaches 1.9% [1][8] - The report suggests maintaining a slightly lower duration in bond portfolios and focusing on a barbell structure due to the difficulty in significantly steepening the yield curve in a weak market environment [2][39] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of selecting specific bonds, with a focus on the 30-year government bond 25T6, which is expected to become the next main bond due to its good liquidity and upcoming issuance [3][12] - The yield spread between 25T6 and 25T2 is currently around 10 basis points, with expectations that this spread will compress to about 6 basis points as 25T6 gains prominence [12] - The report also emphasizes the need to monitor the impact of new regulations on fund redemptions, which may lead to increased volatility in certain bond types [2][39] Group 3 - The report indicates that the current bond yield valuations are not expensive compared to other asset classes, but the profit effect from bonds remains weak, making them less attractive [27][28] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to be around 1.93% in the coming month, reflecting a weak outlook based on the constructed interest rate prediction model [23][24] - The report notes that the yield curve is expected to remain relatively flat, with short-term government bonds showing more resilience compared to long-term bonds [38][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the insurance and securities sectors, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [6]. Core Insights - The insurance sector experienced significant growth in premium income, with total insurance premium income reaching 479.98 billion yuan from January to August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. In August alone, the premium income was 59.13 billion yuan, up 35.6% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing reforms in the capital market, which are expected to enhance its attractiveness. The direct financing proportion has increased to 31.6%, up 2.8 percentage points from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of stable monetary policy and the implementation of tools to maintain capital market stability, which has improved the resilience and risk resistance of the A-share market [4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The broad market indices showed a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.21% and the ChiNext Index rising by 1.96% during the week [10]. Securities Sector - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 11.46 trillion yuan, with a daily average trading amount of 2.29 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 116.72% [17]. - The IPO underwriting scale for the year reached 69.90 billion yuan, marking a 112% increase compared to 2024 [17]. Insurance Sector - The life insurance premium income for the first eight months of 2025 was 357.97 billion yuan, up 11.4% year-on-year, while property insurance premium income was 122.01 billion yuan, up 4.7% [1]. Liquidity Tracking - The central bank conducted 2.47 trillion yuan in reverse repos and 600 billion yuan in MLF operations, resulting in a net injection of 880.6 billion yuan [28]. Industry News and Company Announcements - The report notes significant achievements in the financial sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan, including a total of 10.6 trillion yuan in dividends and buybacks by listed companies, which is an increase of over 80% compared to the previous plan [2][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key insurance companies such as Sunshine Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, and China Life, as well as top securities firms like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities [38].

- The report introduces a "three-dimensional timing framework" for market analysis, which includes divergence, liquidity, and prosperity indices. This framework is used to assess market trends and predict future movements, indicating a mid-term bullish outlook for the CSI 300 index[7][12][16] - The "Hotspot Trend ETF Strategy" is constructed by selecting ETFs with simultaneous upward trends in their highest and lowest prices. Further filtering is done based on the steepness of the regression coefficients of these prices over the past 20 days. A support-resistance factor is then created, and the top 10 ETFs with the highest turnover rates in the past 5 and 20 days are selected to form a risk-parity portfolio[29][30][33] - The "Funds Flow Resonance Strategy" combines financing net purchases and active large-order funds flow. The financing factor is defined as the market-neutralized financing net purchase minus net short selling, with a 50-day average and two-week rate of change. The active large-order factor is based on the net inflow ranking of industry transaction volumes over the past year, with a 10-day average. The strategy excludes extreme industries and large financial sectors to improve stability. Since 2018, this strategy has achieved an annualized excess return of 13.5% and an IR of 1.7[37][40] - The report tracks multiple style factors, including beta, growth, and value. Beta and growth factors recorded positive returns, with growth achieving a monthly return of 4.74%. Conversely, the value factor showed negative returns, underperforming high-valuation stocks[43][44] - Alpha factors are analyzed across different dimensions, such as time and market capitalization. Factors like "fund holdings relative to float shares" and "top ten holdings relative to net asset value" performed well, achieving weekly excess returns of over 1%. Additionally, research and development-related factors showed strong performance across various indices, with higher excess returns observed in small-cap stocks[47][48][50] - The report highlights the weekly performance of style factors, with beta achieving a return of 2.19%, growth at 1.51%, and value at -1.42%. Other factors like size, momentum, and liquidity also showed varying levels of performance[43][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the automotive and automotive parts industry, particularly focusing on quality domestic brands and emerging technologies [5]. Core Viewpoints - The automotive industry is undergoing significant transformation driven by smart electric vehicles and autonomous driving technologies, with a recommendation to focus on key players such as BYD, Geely, Xpeng, and others [10][11]. - The report highlights the importance of the T-chain in the robotics sector, particularly with Tesla's upcoming Optimus V3, which is expected to significantly impact the market [12][16]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the liquid cooling market, driven by the increasing demand for high-performance computing and AI technologies [20][22]. Summary by Sections Weekly Overview - The automotive sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 1.2% in the A-share automotive sector from September 22 to September 26, ranking 19th among sub-industries [32]. - Passenger car sales for the third week of September 2025 reached 516,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.4% and a month-on-month increase of 12.6% [44]. Passenger Vehicles - The report suggests that the continuation of vehicle replacement policies will stimulate domestic demand, with a focus on quality domestic brands like Geely, Xpeng, and BYD [13]. - The introduction of new models, such as the AITO M7 and Li Auto i6, is expected to drive sales growth in the high-end market segment [11][14]. Robotics - The report identifies the T-chain as a core focus area, with significant developments expected from Tesla's Optimus V3, which aims to produce hundreds of prototypes by the end of 2025 [12][16]. - The report also notes the acceleration of the domestic robotics sector's IPO processes, which could serve as a catalyst for market sentiment [19]. Liquid Cooling - The global liquid cooling market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 27.6% from 2024 to 2030, driven by the demand for high-performance computing [20]. - Liquid cooling technology is becoming essential for data centers, especially as AI computing power increases [22]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle market is experiencing rapid growth, particularly in the mid to large displacement segments, with sales of 250cc and above motorcycles reaching 84,000 units in August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.6% [23][24]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the mid to large displacement motorcycle segment, such as Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [24]. Heavy Trucks - The heavy truck market is seeing a resurgence in demand, with sales of 92,000 units in August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 46.6% [26]. - The expansion of vehicle replacement subsidies is expected to further stimulate demand in the heavy truck sector [27]. Tires - The tire industry is benefiting from strong domestic and international demand, with leading companies expected to continue expanding their global presence [28][30]. - The report highlights the importance of technological advancements and product optimization in maintaining competitiveness in the tire market [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Invec, Gaolan Co., and a "Cautious Recommendation" for Kexin New Source [4]. Core Insights - Microsoft's breakthrough in liquid cooling technology, specifically in-chip microfluidic cooling, significantly enhances heat removal efficiency by 2-3 times compared to traditional methods, allowing for stable high-frequency operation of chips and reducing peak temperature by 65% [2][3]. - The introduction of this technology is expected to reshape the IDC liquid cooling landscape, potentially leading to a "second impact" on the industry as more chip servers may come with built-in liquid cooling systems [2]. - The global electricity demand for data centers is projected to double from approximately 460 TWh in 2024 to over 1000 TWh by 2030, indicating a substantial increase in infrastructure energy consumption [3]. Summary by Sections Liquid Cooling Technology - Microsoft's new liquid cooling method utilizes microfluidic technology, which involves etching micron-level channels on the back of chips to directly cool heat sources, improving operational efficiency and sustainability [2]. - The potential for a 20%-30% improvement in Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) could lead to significant reductions in data center operational costs [2]. Market Opportunities - The report highlights the growing need for advanced cooling solutions as AI development continues to drive demand for higher computing power, positioning liquid cooling as a critical technology to address power constraints [3]. - Companies to watch include Invec, Gaolan Co., and Kexin New Source, which are expected to benefit from these advancements in cooling technology [3]. Financial Projections - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies, with Invec projected to have an EPS of 0.61 in 2024, while Gaolan Co. is expected to recover from a loss to an EPS of 0.09 in 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the electric equipment and new energy sector, including CATL, Keda, and others, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [5]. Core Insights - The electric equipment and new energy sector saw a weekly increase of 3.86%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 0.21% [1]. - In August, the total electricity consumption in China exceeded 1 trillion kWh, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [4]. - The report highlights the launch of new electric vehicles, including the AITO Wenjie M7 and H5, which offer various configurations and competitive pricing [2][10]. - Solar power generation capacity increased by 230.61 GW year-on-year, although August saw a month-on-month decline in new installations [3][37]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - The AITO Wenjie M7 was launched on September 23, 2025, with 12 configurations and a price range of 279,800 to 379,800 CNY, featuring both range-extended and pure electric versions [2][10]. - The H5 model was also launched, priced between 159,800 and 199,800 CNY, offering similar powertrain options [2][12]. New Energy Generation - As of August 2025, the solar power generation capacity added 230.61 GW, a 64.73% increase year-on-year, but the monthly addition in August was 7.36 GW, down 55.29% year-on-year [3][37]. - The report notes a slight increase in inverter exports, with a total of 434.02 billion CNY from January to August 2025, reflecting a 7.85% year-on-year growth [30][31]. Electric Equipment and Industrial Control - Total electricity consumption in August reached 1,015.4 billion kWh, with a cumulative total of 6,878.8 billion kWh from January to August, representing a 4.6% year-on-year increase [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of key companies such as CATL, Keda, and others in driving growth within the sector [4][5]. Weekly Market Performance - The electric equipment and new energy sector outperformed the broader market, with significant trading volumes reported [1][4]. - Key companies to watch include CATL, Keda, and others, which are expected to benefit from ongoing industry trends [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [4][6][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that industrial metal prices are expected to continue rising due to supply disruptions and seasonal demand in China during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for energy metals like lithium and cobalt, driven by strong demand from the energy storage and electric vehicle sectors [3]. - Precious metals are anticipated to reach new highs due to increased safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][71]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by supply disruptions from the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, which has been shut down due to a mining accident, leading to a significant reduction in expected output [2][39]. - Aluminum demand is recovering as downstream processing companies increase their operating rates, with a notable rise in pre-holiday stockpiling [2][22]. - Zinc prices are fluctuating due to mixed signals from macroeconomic indicators and supply-demand dynamics, with a slight decrease in domestic consumption observed [45][46]. Energy Metals - The report notes that cobalt supply is tightening due to regulatory changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has implemented a quota system, leading to price increases [3]. - Lithium demand remains robust, particularly in the context of energy storage and electric vehicles, with expectations of a balanced supply-demand situation [3]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have surged, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with gold prices reaching historical highs [4][71]. - The report suggests that central bank purchases of gold and a weakening dollar will continue to support gold prices in the medium to long term [4]. Key Companies and Their Forecasts - Zijin Mining: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.21 CNY, with a PE ratio of 23, rated as "Buy" [4]. - Luoyang Molybdenum: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.63 CNY, with a PE ratio of 22, rated as "Buy" [4]. - Huayou Cobalt: EPS forecast for 2024A is 2.50 CNY, with a PE ratio of 23, rated as "Buy" [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The introduction of the "Steel Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims to address the supply-demand imbalance in the steel industry by implementing precise capacity and production controls, promoting resource allocation to leading enterprises, and achieving dynamic balance in supply and demand [3][7]. - The report highlights that the long-term focus will remain on capacity regulation, which is expected to restore profitability for steel companies, particularly benefiting leading firms from the new regulatory measures [3][7]. Price Trends - As of September 26, 2025, steel prices have decreased, with HRB400 rebar priced at 3,240 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton from the previous week [1][9]. - The report details price changes for various steel products, including hot-rolled and cold-rolled sheets, indicating a general downward trend in prices [1][10]. Production and Inventory - The total production of five major steel products reached 8.65 million tons, an increase of 94,700 tons week-on-week, while total inventory decreased by 121,200 tons to 10.88 million tons [2][3]. - The apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 2.2044 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 104,100 tons [2][3]. Profitability Analysis - The report notes a decline in profitability for plate products, with the gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel changing by +3 CNY/ton, -36 CNY/ton, and -20 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. - Electric arc furnace steel showed a gross margin increase of 10 CNY/ton week-on-week [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel in the general steel sector, and Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel in the special steel sector [3][4]. - It also suggests monitoring high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel for potential investment opportunities [3].