降息生变：警惕非农上修风险？ 2025 年 09 月 26 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：林彦 研究助理：武朔 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525030001 执业证号：S0100125070003 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：linyan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：wushuo@glms.com.cn ➢ 7 月以来非农的剧烈下滑持续牵动美联储与市场的神经。尽管失业率、薪资 等其他就业核心指标未显著恶化，但没有分歧的是，新增非农的持续走弱是迫使 美联储重新审视就业风险、在九月进行"风控型降息"的"罪魁祸首"。 ➢ 但我们认为，联储降息节奏可能比市场预期的线性降息路径要曲折。我们在 前期报告中持续提示，在四季度潜在通胀风险将成为连续宽松政策的"拦路虎"。 当前关于通胀的讨论已较为充分，具体可参考我们此前发布的报告《关税"悖论"， 真的越加越通缩？》、《保税区库存，美企避税的最后自留地》。 ➢ 在这篇报告中，我们将聚焦另一关键变量——就业，其是否存在向上修正的 可能，从而反向压制已计入定价的降息预期。 ➢ 今年以来非农数据" ...

Exchange Rate and Market Dynamics - Recent fluctuations in the offshore RMB have seen it appreciate to around 7.08 in mid-September before dropping below 7.14[3] - The RMB's recent depreciation is more pronounced compared to the USD's movements, indicating a shift in the RMB's elasticity[4] - The RMB has shown a "pro-cyclical" behavior, appreciating when the USD is under pressure and depreciating when the USD rebounds[4] Policy and Market Analysis - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has shifted its stance on the RMB, moving from a focus on stability to allowing greater elasticity post the May negotiations with the US[5] - Recent policy adjustments by the PBOC aim to stabilize the currency while managing economic pressures, avoiding excessive appreciation of the RMB[5] - The influx of southbound capital has increased RMB liquidity, contributing to a lower offshore RMB interest rate compared to the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR)[6] Risk Factors - Potential risks include significant changes in US trade policies and unexpected tariff expansions that could lead to a global economic slowdown[6]

Economic Overview - The "924" policy has transformed the A-share market from "ice-breaking" to a "slow bull" phase, but economic recovery faces complex challenges from both domestic and international fronts[4] - External factors include weakened U.S. import demand and declining global trade momentum, while internal pressures involve manufacturing investment nearing growth thresholds and diminishing effects of "two new" policies[4] Export Performance - September's low base will provide a natural buffer for export growth, with resilience in non-U.S. demand supporting exports despite a slowdown in U.S. imports[4] - Container throughput at Chinese ports has increased, indicating a diversified trade structure and support from non-U.S. economies[4] Industrial Production - Industrial value-added growth is expected to slow in September due to weak external demand and internal "anti-involution" policies[5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to narrow its decline, reflecting a potential turning point in industrial prices[5] Manufacturing and Retail - Manufacturing PMI is likely to rise in September due to seasonal factors, with a high probability of month-on-month increases[5] - Retail sales, particularly in home appliances and passenger vehicles, have entered negative growth territory, indicating a waning effect of "two new" policies and high base pressures[5] Real Estate and Investment - Real estate transactions remain at historical lows, with the "golden September and silver October" showing lackluster performance, although second-hand housing transactions exhibit resilience[6] - Manufacturing investment growth has slowed to 5.1% year-on-year, approaching the critical "around 5%" economic growth target, necessitating policy support for sustained growth[6] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment has faced downward pressure due to extreme weather and financing challenges, but recent indicators suggest a potential marginal improvement[7] - The upcoming policy measures are expected to mitigate investment downturns and support the annual economic growth target[7] Policy Outlook - There is potential for new policy tools to counteract current investment pressures and support the "around 5%" growth target[7] - Increased focus on technological innovation and support for emerging industries is anticipated ahead of the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session[7] Risk Factors - Risks include potential underperformance of policies, unexpected changes in domestic economic conditions, and fluctuations in export dynamics[7]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company has transformed into the "first stock in higher education," with its higher education business becoming the core revenue source, contributing significantly to its financial stability [1][4]. - The independent college transformation is underway, with good enrollment prospects due to high tuition fees and a favorable market environment [2][4]. - The company is strategically focused on its higher education business, with future growth expected from the ongoing construction of the second phase of the urban college project [2][3]. Company Overview - The company, originally engaged in application software and industry solutions, has evolved into a higher education provider through its partnership with Xi'an Jiaotong University, establishing the urban college in 2005 [1][10]. - The urban college has approximately 11,800 students and offers a diverse range of programs, with a strong emphasis on engineering and management disciplines [1][10]. - The company is actively advancing the second phase of the urban college project, which will increase enrollment capacity and improve educational offerings [1][10]. Industry Analysis - The independent college sector has seen significant growth, with over 106 independent colleges undergoing transformation from 2020 to 2025, primarily converting to private institutions [2][30]. - The high number of college entrance exam candidates in recent years supports the demand for independent colleges, which typically charge higher tuition fees [34]. - The independent colleges benefit from their association with well-known public universities, enhancing their attractiveness to prospective students [34]. Financial Analysis - The company has a relatively high asset-liability ratio, with figures of 60.86%, 63.94%, and 61.23% from 2023 to 2025 [3][51]. - The cash flow situation is strong, with a cash collection ratio exceeding 100% in recent years, indicating effective cash management [3][53]. - Profitability is improving, with gross margins around 51.55% to 52.94% and net margins between 12.19% and 16.28% from 2022 to 2025 [3][19]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Suggestions - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 3.13 billion, 3.38 billion, and 3.61 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.54, 0.63, and 0.69 yuan [4][5]. - The company is expected to maintain stable growth in its higher education business, supported by enrollment increases and tuition hikes [4][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive parts industry, particularly focusing on the opportunities presented by the transition to smart electric vehicles in China [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the historical opportunity for Chinese automotive companies to leverage the shift from traditional fuel vehicles to electric vehicles, potentially allowing them to surpass established global players [2]. - It highlights the successful growth strategies of global automotive parts giants, particularly in the context of mergers and acquisitions, technological innovation, and market expansion [3][7]. - The report details the evolution of Adient, a leading automotive seating company, from its separation from Johnson Controls to its current status as a global leader in the seating market, driven by strategic acquisitions and a focus on core competencies [7][10]. Summary by Sections Historical Overview - The report outlines the historical development of Adient, detailing its key acquisitions and strategic decisions that have shaped its growth in the automotive seating sector [41][50]. - It notes the transition from being part of Johnson Controls to becoming an independent entity focused on seating solutions, highlighting significant milestones in its journey [10][41]. Success Factors - Adient's success is attributed to its ability to capitalize on market opportunities, strategic mergers and acquisitions, and a strong focus on product innovation and technology [7][10]. - The report identifies three primary growth strategies employed by global automotive parts suppliers: technology-driven growth, reliance on major automotive manufacturers, and expansion through acquisitions [6][33]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a significant shift in the automotive parts landscape due to the rise of electric and smart vehicles, with a focus on the development of new technologies and products that cater to these trends [8][10]. - It discusses the competitive dynamics of the automotive parts industry, noting the increasing importance of innovation and customer responsiveness in maintaining market leadership [19][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several key companies in the AI infrastructure sector, including 德科立, 仕佳光子, 中际旭创, 新易盛, 天孚通信, and 润泽科技 [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant investment by NVIDIA in OpenAI, amounting to up to $100 billion (approximately 711.47 billion RMB), aimed at deploying at least 10GW of NVIDIA systems, which includes millions of GPUs [1][2]. - The transition from "selling shovels" to "delivering shovels" is noted, with the estimated cost of building 1GW of computing power being around $50-60 billion, where NVIDIA's chips and systems account for approximately $35 billion [2]. - The AI sector is entering a phase focused on infrastructure expansion rather than just model competition, with OpenAI's mission to drive "superintelligence" being heavily reliant on computational power [3]. - The report suggests that the current focus in AI infrastructure has shifted from cloud vendor spending to AIDC cloud computing centers, recommending companies with a first-mover advantage in GPU cards [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - Key companies to watch include Oracle, Coreweave, Nebius, AppliedGigital, and Iris Energy for their GPU card advantages [4]. - In the domestic market, companies like 润泽科技, 奥飞数据, and 润建股份 are highlighted for their potential in AI infrastructure [4]. Financial Projections - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several companies, indicating strong growth potential for 2024-2026 [5]. - For example, 中际旭创 is projected to have an EPS of 12.94 RMB by 2026 with a PE ratio of 34, while 新易盛 is expected to reach an EPS of 13.10 RMB with a PE of 27 [5]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the increasing demand for AI infrastructure, with OpenAI's rapid growth and significant contracts with cloud service providers indicating a robust market environment [3]. - The establishment of a 1GW data center by OpenAI in 2026 is anticipated to mark a milestone in the infrastructure arms race, paving the way for large-scale application deployment [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the cloud computing sector, particularly focusing on major internet companies' international expansion strategies [7]. Core Insights - The year 2025 marks the beginning of a new phase for major internet companies as they embark on cloud internationalization, supported by significant debt financing initiatives [1][10]. - Major players like Alibaba Cloud, Tencent Cloud, and ByteDance's Volcano Engine are actively enhancing their global cloud infrastructure to support Chinese enterprises' overseas expansion [17][23][50]. - The dual drivers of domestic AI internationalization and local AI demand abroad are propelling the cloud expansion efforts of these internet giants [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Internet Giants' Internationalization - Major internet companies are launching new rounds of debt financing aimed at cloud internationalization, with Alibaba planning to invest over 380 billion RMB in cloud and AI infrastructure over the next three years [1][11]. - Tencent Cloud has embraced internationalization, achieving high double-digit growth in international business over the past three years, with a doubling of overseas customer numbers [12][13]. 2. Domestic AI Internationalization and Local AI Demand - The demand for AI applications from both domestic companies and local markets abroad is driving the cloud internationalization process [2][3]. - Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance are leveraging their AI capabilities to support various sectors, including e-commerce and gaming, in their international endeavors [2][35][50]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key players in the cloud platform sector, including Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu, as well as companies involved in computing power leasing and optical communication [3][7]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include Hongjing Technology, Xiechuang Data, and various optical communication firms [3].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the liquidity outlook is influenced by the upcoming quarter-end period from September 22 to September 26, with the current 7-day reverse repo balance at 18,268 billion yuan, significantly higher than the average of 6,382 billion yuan over the past four years, creating some pressure on liquidity [1][10] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced on September 19 that it would adjust the 14-day reverse repo operations to a fixed quantity and interest rate bidding, which aligns with the monetary policy framework established on June 19, 2024, indicating a proactive stance to support liquidity during the quarter-end [1][10] - The report suggests that the recent press conference by the State Council did not lead to any significant changes in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, maintaining a supportive monetary policy stance that is expected to continue to support the bond market [2][11] Group 2 - The report forecasts that by September 28, the cumulative issuance of replacement bonds will reach 19,838 billion yuan, with progress at 99.19%, while new general bonds and special bonds are expected to reach 6,618 billion yuan and 36,613 billion yuan respectively, indicating strong issuance activity [3][39] - In the secondary market, the dynamic implied tax rates for local government bonds are above 3%, with the 10-year bonds showing a slight decline to just above 3%, suggesting that new bonds still have arbitrage opportunities and safety margins [4][16] - The report highlights that since September, there has been a persistent arbitrage opportunity between primary and secondary markets for bonds with maturities of 7 years and above, with a spread of 2-4 basis points, indicating potential investment opportunities [4][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [7]. Core Insights - The listing process for domestic GPU companies, represented by Muxi Co. and Moer Thread, is accelerating, marking a significant capital leap for the domestic GPU industry. This is expected to enhance the technological capabilities and competitiveness of domestic GPU products, narrowing the gap with international standards [2][3]. - Muxi Co. has a substantial order backlog of 1.43 billion yuan as of September 5, 2025, primarily from existing clients and new large orders, indicating strong demand for its products [3]. - Moer Thread's KUAE 2 product supports high-efficiency AI model training and is currently in the customer customization phase, showcasing the company's commitment to advancing its technology [4]. Summary by Sections Muxi Co. - Muxi Co. has successfully passed the second round of inquiries, with a significant reduction in the number of questions from 14 to 3, indicating a smoother path to listing [2]. - The company is actively expanding its client base among internet companies and operators, with expectations to secure its first order by the end of 2025 [3]. - The C600 chip has successfully completed initial testing and is expected to enter risk production by the end of 2025, complementing the existing C500 series [3]. Moer Thread - Moer Thread's KUAE 2 is designed for high-performance AI applications and is currently in the customization stage for clients, with plans for standardized sales in the future [4]. - The company emphasizes collaboration with domestic foundries to achieve products that meet international flagship standards, indicating a focus on quality and competitiveness [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that as Muxi Co. accelerates its IPO process, related companies in the supply chain are likely to benefit significantly. The trend of domestic computing power is expected to solidify, with specific companies recommended for attention, including Chipone Technology, SMIC, and Hua Hong Semiconductor [8].

通信行业点评 姚院士在浦江论坛对量子提出了怎样的期待？ 2025 年 09 月 23 日 ➢ 2025 年 9 月 21 日浦江创新论坛上，姚院士就量子计算+A 开展演讲，认 为两者可"相互赋能"。"将量子与 AI 这两项颠覆性技术结合，或许能推动人类 突破现有知识极限，实现系统能力的跃升。"在姚期智院士看来，二者的融合不是 简单叠加，而是相互赋能的"化学反应"。大会同时宣布成立上海量子人工智能联 合体、上海量子科技装备产业创新联盟，发布上海量子计算十大应用场景，标志 上海量子科技与产业发展迈入崭新发展阶段。 ➢ 我国 AI 量子：基础扎实潜力无限。大会上指出，当前我国在量子纠错、AI 赋能量子等领域紧跟国际前沿，最新研究进展在部分方向上已经具备了"并跑"， 甚至局部"领跑"的可能。中国科学院院士俞大鹏指出，中国在量子计算领域已 取得显著突破。在上海，复旦大学成功研制出中性原子量子计算系统，制定高效 并行量子计算指令集；开发 ai+量子调控方案，实现了大规模原子系统的自动校 准、优化，为量子计算增效提速；自研物镜的性能也已支撑万比特级中性原子量 子计算；近期在量子优化算法上又取得新突破，大幅提升 NP 难问题 ...