Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, rating it as "Overweight" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that cold air impacts are still present, and with cost support, supply is expected to tighten, leading to a stabilization of coal prices. The demand side is supported by increased consumption due to cold weather, while supply may decrease as some coal mines reduce production after meeting annual targets [1][3]. - The report provides specific price data for thermal coal and coking coal, indicating a slight decline in prices but a stable outlook due to seasonal demand and supply constraints [1][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of safety regulations and monitoring, especially with recent mining accidents, which may further tighten supply [1][3]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued new rules for the electricity market to adapt to changes in the energy system and market participants [7]. - New coal transportation infrastructure in Xinjiang aims to enhance efficiency and support green energy initiatives [7]. Price Trends - As of December 26, 2025, thermal coal prices at Qinhuangdao port were reported at 486, 576, and 672 CNY/ton for different grades, showing a week-on-week decline [1][8]. - Coking coal prices remained stable, with specific prices reported for various regions [1][11]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Daily coal consumption has increased, while power plant inventories have decreased, indicating a tightening supply situation [3][20]. - The report notes that the average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports decreased, while outflow increased, leading to a rise in port inventories [20]. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices increased slightly, which may influence coal pricing dynamics [15]. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, providing insights into their market performance and earnings projections [32].

Electronic and 2025 年 12 月 28 日 看好 相关研究 《保险公司资产负债管理即将迈入全新阶 -非银金融行业周报 (2025/12/15- EG --- 2025/12/19)》 2025/12/21 《头部非银机构监管红利有望释放 -- 非 银金融行业周报 (2025/12/8- 2025/12/12)》 2025/12/14 《券商板块信心提振，补涨逻辑有望逐步 兑现 -- 非银金融行业周报 (2025/12/1- 2025/12/5)》 2025/12/07 《高弹性标签助力板块"破圈"，看好资负 两端改善趋势 ——2026 年保险行业策略 报告》 2025/11/18 《证券行业 2026 年投资策略:权益浪潮 下的券商机遇：财富扩容,国际增效》 2025/11/17 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjg@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh ...

Group 1 - The market sentiment is positive, with the North Exchange 50 Index rising by 1.19% and a total of 76 stocks increasing in value, while 209 stocks declined, resulting in a rise-fall ratio of 0.36 [2][8][30] - Key market themes include commercial aerospace, Hainan's "closure" theme, liquid cooling, rising lithium battery material prices, and record copper prices, indicating active thematic investments in future industries such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, and nuclear fusion [8][9][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of timing in thematic investments, particularly in the context of the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" and suggests focusing on North Exchange stocks related to future industries [9][10] Group 2 - The North Exchange's new stock quality is expected to improve, with attention on changes in new stock allocation policies for 2026 and upcoming listings, including Wei Dongguang [10][21][27] - This week, one new stock, Jiangtian Technology, was listed with a first-day increase of 180.58%, bringing the total number of listed companies on the North Exchange to 287 [21][27] - The report highlights the potential for significant returns from low-valuation stocks such as Tongli Co., KAIT Co., and others, as new funds are expected to return in early 2026 [10][12][40]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - ByteDance's AI collaboration for the Spring Festival Gala is expected to significantly enhance user engagement, with Doubao's daily active users surpassing 100 million. This milestone is anticipated to drive commercialization in AI applications in 2026, prompting major internet companies to accelerate their investments and strategies [2]. - Key companies highlighted include Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu, with a focus on their AI product developments and market strategies. Tencent is restructuring its AI framework to enhance model development, while Alibaba is expanding its AI applications in consumer and enterprise sectors [2]. - The report emphasizes the upcoming peak consumption season in gaming and video content, with significant releases expected to drive user engagement and revenue growth [2]. Summary by Sections AI Developments - ByteDance's Doubao has achieved over 100 million daily active users, with plans for monetization through e-commerce and advertising [2]. - Tencent is reorganizing its AI departments to boost research and development, while Alibaba is focusing on AI applications in cloud services and consumer health [2]. Gaming and Entertainment - The report identifies key gaming titles for the upcoming Spring Festival, including Giant Network's "Supernatural Action Group" and Tencent's "Delta Force," which are expected to perform well during the peak season [2]. - The animation "Chinese Folktales 2" is set to premiere exclusively on Bilibili, highlighting the growing importance of video platforms in content distribution [2]. Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating projected revenue growth and profit margins for firms like Tencent, Alibaba, and Bilibili, with Tencent's market cap at approximately 49.895 billion RMB and expected revenue growth of 14% in 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" investment rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 3.874 billion and 4.649 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 25% to 50%. The fourth quarter of 2025 is projected to yield a net profit of 632 million to 1.406 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -20.8% to +76.4% [7]. - The company is expected to continue solidifying its leading position in the refrigeration and air conditioning components sector while leveraging its advanced technology and production scale to drive growth. Additionally, the company is expanding its automotive components business through its established market presence in the global electric vehicle thermal management sector [7]. - The report indicates an upward revision of profit forecasts, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 being 4.253 billion, 4.650 billion, and 5.099 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37%, 9%, and 10% [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 31.913 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.253 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 37.2% [6]. - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to improve slightly from 28.1% in 2024 to 28.6% in 2027, while the return on equity (ROE) is expected to stabilize around 12.9% to 13.3% over the same period [6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.84 yuan in 2024 to 1.21 yuan in 2027 [6].

债 券 策 略 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 联系人 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 12 月 28 日 债市行情或在一季度启动，固收资 产怎么选？ 债 券 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 近期基本面承压、资金面宽松的背景下，债市表现依然不强，或主因债市核心矛盾在于对 供需期限失衡压力的担忧。展望 2026 年一季度，供需期限失衡压力有望阶段性缓解。叠 加基本面修复节奏温和，资金面易松难紧，债券利率有望启动下行行情，或现年内低点。 ➢ 行情支撑一：强预期弱现实。基本面仍处在强预期弱现实的状态，经济表现与金融市场收 敛的可能性也给债市带来利好支撑。2025 年下半年以来，伴随"反内卷"发酵和权益市 场持续走强，市场对基本面改善的预期也持续抬升。但实际上，基本面表现仍然处在较低 水平 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the shipping sector, expecting a strong start in 2026, particularly for companies like ST Song, China Shipbuilding, and China Power [5]. Core Insights - The shipping industry has seen improvements in new ship orders and pricing since October, with expectations for a strong performance in 2026. The report highlights the potential for a seasonal price increase in January, particularly in the oil and bulk cargo sectors [5]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the railway and highway freight volumes, with steady growth observed. Data from the Ministry of Transport shows a slight decrease in railway freight but an increase in highway truck traffic [5][6]. - The airline industry is at a turning point, with expectations for significant improvements in airline profitability due to supply constraints and increasing passenger volumes [5]. - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined for future profitability and market dynamics [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - New ship orders and pricing have improved since October, with expectations for a strong performance in 2026. Companies like ST Song, China Shipbuilding, and China Power are highlighted as key players [5]. - The report notes a significant drop in VLCC rates, with a 34.4% decrease observed on December 24, while crude oil tanker rates showed a 7.6% increase due to supply constraints [5]. Railway and Highway - Railway freight volume was reported at 78.37 million tons, a 1.96% decrease week-on-week, while highway truck traffic increased by 2.02% to 55.44 million vehicles [5][6]. Airline Industry - The report suggests that the airline industry is poised for a golden era, with supply constraints and increased international travel expected to enhance profitability [5]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is undergoing a transformation, with three scenarios proposed for future market dynamics, focusing on price recovery and potential mergers [5]. Overall Transportation Index - The transportation sector index rose by 1.37%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.95% [6].

Group 1 - The market sentiment is positive, with the North Exchange 50 index rising by 1.19% and the trading volume decreasing by 11.69% compared to the previous week [2][12][16] - Key market themes include commercial aerospace, Hainan "closure" theme, liquid cooling, lithium battery material price increases, and rising copper prices, indicating active thematic investments in future industries such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communication [12][13][14] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the North Exchange thematic market during the spring rally, emphasizing the importance of timing in thematic investments and highlighting specific stocks to watch, including Fujida, Xingtou Measurement and Control, and others in emerging technology sectors [13][14] Group 2 - The North Exchange saw one new stock listed this week, Jiangtian Technology, which had a significant first-day increase of 180.58% [26][7] - The report notes that the quality of new stocks on the North Exchange is expected to continue improving, with attention on the upcoming listing of Hengtong Light [14][26] - The new three-board market saw 10 new listings and 42 delistings this week, with a total of 5,956 companies currently listed [47][49]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of Baidu Group to "Buy" [2][6] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that Baidu is advancing its AI full-stack construction, with significant growth in its intelligent cloud business, driven by the release of new AI models and chips [5][25] - Baidu's self-developed Kunlun chips are expected to enter a phase of mass production, enhancing its competitive edge in AI computing [5][45] - The Robotaxi business is experiencing substantial growth, with improved profitability and a comprehensive technology system in place [5][58] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for Baidu Group from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 1285 billion, 1331 billion, and 1410 billion RMB, with corresponding growth rates of -3%, 4%, and 6% [4][7] - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to be 176 billion, 203 billion, and 220 billion RMB for the same period, reflecting a decline in 2025 followed by recovery [4][7] - The adjusted earnings per share are expected to be 6.31, 7.27, and 7.87 RMB from 2025 to 2027 [4] Intelligent Cloud Business - Baidu's intelligent cloud revenue reached 62 billion RMB in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 31%, accounting for 37% of Baidu's core revenue [5][32] - The AI cloud infrastructure revenue grew by 33%, while the subscription revenue for AI accelerators surged by 128% [5][28] - Baidu's market share in the AI large model solution market is leading at 16.6%, with strong growth in its AI cloud services [5][37] Kunlun Chip Development - The Kunlun chip series has undergone significant development, with the third generation expected to meet the demands of large-scale AI models [5][45] - The Kunlun chips have been successfully integrated into various industries, including finance and energy, demonstrating their commercial viability [5][53] Robotaxi Business - The Robotaxi platform, "LuoBo Kuaipao," has seen a significant increase in order volume, with over 310 million orders in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 200% [5][58] - The business has achieved profitability at the unit level, indicating a successful transition from technology validation to sustainable commercialization [5][58]

证 券 研 究 报 告 沪深300隐含波动率低位回升 全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251219-20251226) 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 王胜 A0230511060001 2025.12.28 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 全球资本市场回顾：本周 (20251219-20251226) 美国市场核心矛盾聚焦政策分歧与经济结构性失衡，特朗普明确要求下任美联储主席推动大幅降息，同时白银逼仓背景下，贵金 属领涨全球资产，美股整体震荡收涨。1）固收方面，10Y美债收益率录得4.14%，本周下降2BPs，美元指数下跌0.69%，当前点位为98.0；2）权益方面，本周韩国、日本、新兴市 场股市上涨较多，A股指数全线收涨，创业板指、中证1000和科创50涨幅靠前，阿根廷、法国、英国股市有所下跌；3）商品方面，本周黄金上涨4.24%，并且白银逼仓背景下，贵 金属领涨全球资产，原油本周上涨0.55%。 ◼ 全球资金流向跟踪：截止到2025/12/24，过去一周来看，内外资均流入中国股市；海外 ...