E Vice I 2025 年 11 月 24 日 看好 相关研究 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 册 分歧污 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 期待"十五五"订单陆续落 大军工行业关注度 国防军工行业周报（2025年第 48 周） 本期投资提示: 上周申万国防军工指数下跌 1.72%，中证军工龙头指数下跌 2.87%，同期上证综指下 跌 3.9%, 沪深 300 下跌 3.77%, 创业板指下跌 6.15%, 申万国防军工指数跑赢创业 板指、跑赢沪深 300、跑赢上证综指、跑赢军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上周 国防军工板块 1.72%的跌幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 4 位。2、从我们构建的 军工集团指数变化来看，上周中证民参军涨跌幅排名 ...

行 业 及 产 业 国防军工 相关研究 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 2025 年 11 月 24 日 期待"十五五"订单陆续落地，加 大军工行业关注度 看好 ——国防军工行业周报（2025 年第 48 周） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 上周申万国防军工指数下跌 1.72%，中证军工龙头指数下跌 2.87%，同期上证综指下 跌 3.9%，沪深 300 下跌 3.77%，创业板指下跌 6.15%，申万国防军工指数跑赢创业 板指、跑赢沪深 300、跑赢上证综指、跑赢军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上周 国防军工板块 1.72%的跌幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 4 位。2、从我们构建的 军工集团指数变化来看，上周 ...

Group 1 - Market sentiment score has slightly decreased to 3.8 as of November 21, down from 3.9 the previous week, indicating a bearish outlook [7][11] - The consistency between price and volume has weakened significantly, showing a decline in market engagement and a drop in risk appetite, particularly reflected in the decreasing trading volume of the Sci-Tech 50 index [11][18] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market has decreased by 8.74% week-on-week, with an average daily trading volume of 18650.36 billion yuan [15][17] Group 2 - The banking, textile and apparel, defense, petrochemical, and comprehensive sectors have shown an upward trend in short-term scores, with the petrochemical sector leading at a score of 83.05 [40][41] - The correlation between sector crowding and weekly price changes is negative at -0.24, indicating that sectors with high crowding, such as electric power equipment and basic chemicals, have experienced significant declines [44][46] - The current model indicates a preference for small-cap and value styles, with strong signals for both, although the strength of these signals may need further observation [50][52]

Group 1: Economic Overview and Federal Reserve Insights - The U.S. September non-farm payroll data presents a mixed picture, with 119,000 jobs added, exceeding market expectations, but the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% [3][12] - Average hourly earnings increased by only 0.2% month-on-month in September, a significant slowdown from 0.4% in August, indicating potential wage pressures [3][12] - The Federal Reserve's internal views are divided, and the market's expectations for a December rate cut have fluctuated significantly, influenced by recent economic data [3][11] Group 2: Oil and Gas Industry Outlook - The oil and gas extraction sector is expected to see supply slow down, with Brent crude oil prices projected to range between $55 and $70 per barrel in 2026 [3][13] - OPEC+ is expected to slow its production increase, while non-OPEC supply growth is anticipated to decline significantly, particularly in shale oil production [3][13] - Global GDP growth is forecasted at approximately 3.1% in 2026, with a corresponding slowdown in oil demand growth [3][13] Group 3: Petrochemical Sector Analysis - The refining sector is anticipated to recover due to a contraction in global supply and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies in China, which may enhance the competitiveness of leading companies [3][21] - The polyester sector is expected to see a tightening supply-demand balance, with significant recovery potential, particularly for high-quality companies in the polyester filament and bottle-grade sectors [3][21] - Investment recommendations include focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, as well as high-dividend oil companies like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil [3][21]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - Recent adjustments in consumer spending on gaming, trendy toys, and music, along with significant fluctuations in Hong Kong's cloud computing and AI applications, are attributed to crowded trading, domestic demand concerns, and product cycle volatility. However, the report suggests that overly high expectations have been digested, and the upward trend in fundamentals remains intact [2]. - The report highlights advancements in AI, particularly with the release of Google's Gemini 3, which showcases significant performance improvements. In China, applications like Alibaba's Qianwen and Ant Group's Lingguang are evolving from chatbots to consumer-facing application ecosystems [2]. - The gaming sector has seen a substantial drop in valuations, now around a PE of 15x for 2026. Despite this, there are positive developments, including a stronger willingness to pay among younger users and potential growth from overseas markets. The report emphasizes the importance of differentiated competition based on user demographics and game categories [2]. - The music industry is experiencing a shift, with a notable adjustment in the past two months. The report discusses the stratification of music consumption and the challenges faced by platforms like Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music in monetizing their offerings effectively [2]. Summary by Sections AI Applications - The report notes the impressive capabilities of overseas AI models like Google's Gemini 3 and highlights the competitive landscape in China, where companies are vying for market share in AI applications [2]. - Key recommendations include Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, and Baidu, with a focus on their respective AI advancements and market strategies [2]. Gaming Sector - The gaming industry is projected to recover, with new product launches expected to drive revenue growth. The report identifies several companies with strong potential, including Giant Network and Tencent Holdings, emphasizing their innovative game offerings and market positioning [2][4]. - The report also mentions the increasing number of game licenses being issued, which could benefit companies that adapt to differentiated competition strategies [2]. Music Industry - The report discusses the recent adjustments in the music sector, particularly the impact of platforms like Soda Music, and the need for increased investment in copyright to enhance advertising ROI [2]. - Companies like Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music are highlighted for their core user communities and membership models, which are essential for their revenue generation [2]. Other Notable Companies - The report also mentions other companies of interest, including Pop Mart, Damai Entertainment, and Alibaba Health, indicating a broader focus on the entertainment and health sectors [2].

Industry Overview - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has shown stronger performance than the market, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining by 4.5% from November 14 to November 21, 2025, outperforming the Shenwan A Index by 1.9 percentage points [3][4] - The cosmetics sales are expected to gradually decline as the peak shopping season ends, with domestic brands actively preparing new products for the off-season [9][10] Key Insights - The 2026 cosmetics and medical beauty strategy report indicates that brand growth is crucial, with upstream and downstream margins improving. Domestic brands are expected to grow against the trend during the industry consolidation phase [10][11] - The National Medical Products Administration has introduced 24 reform measures aimed at enhancing the regulatory framework for cosmetics, promoting high-quality industry development [26] Company Focus - Qingmu Technology (301110) is highlighted as a full-domain operation service expert, leveraging data and technology to drive growth. The company has established a strong brand matrix across various sectors, including fashion and beauty [15][16] - Investment recommendations include brands with strong channel and brand matrices such as Maogeping, Shangmei Co., and Proya, as well as companies in the medical beauty sector like Aimeike [12][14] Market Trends - The retail sales of cosmetics in October 2025 grew by 9.6%, driven by the Double 11 shopping festival, with a total retail sales of 381.3 billion yuan for cosmetics in the first ten months of 2025, reflecting a 4.6% year-on-year increase [21][23] - The domestic market for skincare products is expected to see further growth, with domestic brands gaining market share due to their competitive pricing and localized strategies [31][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the Bank of China CSI All - Share Free Cash Flow ETF, a passive index fund under the Bank of China Fund. The CSI All - Share Free Cash Flow Index, the underlying index of the fund, is a SmartBeta index that combines value and profitability. The index has advantages in terms of industry distribution, dividend yield, valuation, profitability, and performance. The ETF has achieved excess returns while closely tracking the index, and the current fund manager has rich experience in index fund management [1]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1中证全指自由现金流指数：兼顾价值与盈利的SmartBeta指数 - **Index Introduction**: The CSI All - Share Free Cash Flow Index (932365.CSI) selects 100 listed company securities with high free cash flow rates to reflect the overall performance of securities of companies with strong cash - flow generation capabilities. It was based on December 31, 2013, with a base point of 1000 [6]. - **Component Stock Analysis**: The index has a balanced industry distribution, relatively concentrated in household appliances, non - ferrous metals, and transportation. Market capitalization is concentrated in small - and medium - cap stocks, with companies with a market cap of less than 100 billion accounting for 30% [11]. - **Dividend Yield Analysis**: The dividend yield of the index is between that of the CSI 300 and the CSI Dividend Index. As of November 14, 2025, it was about 3.83%, higher than the CSI 300's about 2.56% but lower than the CSI Dividend Index's about 4.22% [15]. - **Valuation Level**: The PE valuation has an advantage, and the high PB reflects high profitability. As of November 14, 2025, the PE - TTM was about 13.39 times, lower than the CSI 300's 14.24 times, and the PB - LF was about 1.94 times, higher than the CSI 300's 1.48 times [19]. - **Profitability Level**: The ROE of the index is expected to remain stable at around 14% from 2025 to 2027, higher than the CSI 300 (about 11%) and the CSI Dividend Index (about 9%). Net profit is expected to increase steadily from about 490 billion yuan in 2025 to over 560 billion yuan in 2027 [24]. - **Performance Analysis**: In the past nearly six years, the cumulative return of the index was 207.13%, with an annualized return of 21.98%, outperforming the CSI 300 and the CSI Dividend Index. It also had excess returns in multiple years and showed strong defensive capabilities in 2022. The Sharpe ratio was 1.02, indicating high risk - adjusted returns [28]. 3.2中银中证全指自由现金流ETF（563760）介绍 - **Product Introduction**: The Bank of China CSI All - Share Free Cash Flow ETF is a passive index fund under the Bank of China Fund. It was established on May 21, 2025, listed on June 6, 2025, with an issue size of 388 million yuan. It uses the full replication method for investment [33]. - **Excess Returns and Close Tracking**: Since its establishment on May 21, 2025, the ETF has achieved excess returns over its performance benchmark. The net value has been above the CSI Cash Flow Index. The average daily tracking deviation is under control, with the average absolute value of daily tracking deviation less than 0.05%, and the annualized tracking error in the statistical period was 1.23%, significantly lower than the control targets [35]. - **Introduction of the Current Fund Manager**: Mr. Zhao Jianzhong, a finance master, is the Assistant Vice - President of the Bank of China Fund. He has 10.45 years of investment management experience, has managed 19 funds in the past, and currently manages 13 funds, including various index products [42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, suggesting an "Overweight" rating for the sector, indicating expected performance above the market average [36]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the supply of coal is tightening due to stricter safety and environmental regulations, which is expected to support price increases in the future [3][8]. - It notes that the demand for thermal coal is anticipated to rise during the winter heating season, further driving prices upward after adjustments [3][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term contracts for coal supply, as mandated by the National Development and Reform Commission, to ensure stable energy supply [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines for signing long-term coal supply contracts, requiring power generation companies to secure at least 80% of their coal needs based on projected consumption [8]. - A new coal-to-natural gas project in Xinjiang has commenced, focusing on green development in the coal chemical sector [5]. 2. Domestic Thermal Coal Prices - As of November 21, thermal coal prices have shown stability with slight increases in certain regions, such as a rise of 5 CNY/ton in Datong [9]. - The overall thermal coal price index remains stable, with the Qinhuangdao port price holding steady at 710 CNY/ton [9]. 3. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices have decreased to 62.56 USD/barrel, reflecting a drop of 2.84% [16]. - The report notes a rising ratio of international oil prices to coal prices, indicating potential implications for coal pricing dynamics [16]. 4. Inventory Levels in the Bohai Rim - Coal inventory levels in the Bohai Rim have increased, with average daily coal inflow rising by 4.49% week-on-week [19]. - The total coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports reached 25.983 million tons, up 6.94% from the previous week [19]. 5. Domestic Coastal Freight Rates - Domestic coastal freight rates have decreased to 47.27 CNY/ton, a decline of 8.25% [27]. - In contrast, international freight rates have seen slight increases, with Indonesian coal freight rates rising by 0.4% [27]. 6. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting metrics such as EPS and PE ratios for companies like China Shenhua and Shanxi Coal [31].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the agricultural sector, particularly highlighting the need to focus on capacity reduction in the pig farming industry due to ongoing losses and low prices [1][2]. Core Insights - The agricultural index fell by 3.4% this week, with significant individual stock movements, including a notable increase in companies like Zhongshui Fishery (61.0%) and Quanyin High-Tech (27.4%) [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing losses in pig farming due to low prices, suggesting that the industry is entering a phase of accelerated capacity reduction, which may present left-side investment opportunities [1][2]. - The pet food sector showed strong sales performance during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, indicating growth potential for leading companies in this space [1][2]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The report notes a decline in pig prices, with the average price for external three yuan pigs at 11.61 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.43% but a decrease of 2.11% compared to the previous week [1]. - Losses for self-breeding sow enterprises have increased, with losses reported at 96.61 yuan per head, a week-on-week increase of 24.66 yuan [1]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on pig supply through Q4 2025 and into H1 2026, with prices likely to remain low [1]. Pet Food - October data shows a decline in China's pet food exports, with a total export value of 772 million yuan (approximately 109 million USD), down 15.8% year-on-year [1]. - Despite short-term challenges due to trade friction, the domestic pet food market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a focus on leading brands [1][2]. Chicken Farming - The report highlights stable prices for white feather broiler chicks and chicken meat, with the average price for chicks at 3.35 yuan each and for chicken meat at 3.50 yuan/kg [1]. - The supply of broilers is expected to remain ample, but improvements in demand due to economic recovery could lead to a rebound in industry profitability [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Views - The chemical sector is expected to experience a turning point with the establishment of synergies between the silicone and caprolactam industries, leading to an upward trend in market conditions and accelerated de-involution [1] - The report highlights the importance of voluntary emission reductions and carbon cuts, with companies planning to maintain a 70% operating rate and adjust production based on market conditions [1] - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Xingfa Group, Luxi Chemical, Dongyue Silicon Materials, and Xin'an Chemical for potential investment opportunities in the silicone sector [1] - In the caprolactam sector, the report recommends monitoring Luxi Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Juhua for their potential to drive profitability recovery [1] Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic judgments indicate that oil prices are expected to remain in a relatively loose range, with Brent crude projected between $55-70 per barrel due to delayed OPEC+ production increases and stable demand recovery [2][3] - The report notes that the PPI for all industrial products decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in October, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1%, marking the first rise of the year [3] - The manufacturing PMI recorded 49.0 in October, indicating a slowdown in production activities due to various factors, including pre-holiday demand release and a more complex international environment [3] Chemical Sector Configuration - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy across four main chains: textile and apparel, agricultural chemicals, export-related chemicals, and sectors benefiting from de-involution policies [1] - Specific recommendations include focusing on nylon and caprolactam with companies like Luxi Chemical, and on fertilizers with companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Yuntianhua [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring key materials for growth, particularly in semiconductor materials, OLED panel materials, and lithium battery materials [1]