证券研究报告 | 2025 年 05 月 09 日 $$\overline{{{\prod_{\mathrm{DE}}}}}\frac{\bigtriangleup}{\bigtriangleup}\frac{\bigtriangleup}{\bigtriangleup}\frac{\bigtriangleup\mathrm{bd}}{\bigtriangleup}$$ 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 3352 | 0.28 | | 沪深 300 | 3852.9 | 0.56 | | 中证 500 | 5773.81 | 0.41 | | 中小盘指 | 3764.49 | 0.42 | | 创业板指 | 2029.45 | 1.65 | 《策略|特朗普的美国"梦"与现实——"新秩序"研究系列二》 1、政策视角下，特朗普 2.0 时代的"百日新政"有什么特征？从权力的 行使方式看，特朗普大量使用行政命令；从施政领域上看，特朗普的大部 分行政命令都集中在移民与边境安全、能源和贸易三大核心方面；从施政 节奏上看，行政法令的 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 360.11 billion yuan and net profit of 122.43 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.79% and 17.29% respectively [1] - For 2025, the company is projected to generate revenue of 165.23 billion yuan and net profit of 66.48 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 7.72% and 6.15% respectively [1] - The company has seen a significant increase in high-priced liquor sales, with liquor revenue reaching 358.75 billion yuan in 2024, up 13% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin improved by 0.93 percentage points to 76.30% in 2024, with sales volume and price per ton increasing by 7.20% and 5.43% respectively [1] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue is forecasted to grow at rates of 8%, 9%, and 9% from 2025 to 2027, reaching 390 billion yuan, 425 billion yuan, and 463 billion yuan respectively [2] - The net profit is expected to grow by 6%, 9%, and 10% during the same period, reaching 130 billion yuan, 141 billion yuan, and 155 billion yuan respectively [2] - The company’s EBITDA is projected to increase from 16,891.10 million yuan in 2024 to 21,046.21 million yuan by 2027 [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 10.04 yuan in 2024 to 12.71 yuan in 2027 [3] Market and Sales Insights - The company’s sales in the domestic market for 2025 are expected to be 60.83 billion yuan, while sales outside the province are projected at 103.96 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 8.7% and 7.18% respectively [1] - The number of distributors increased by 743 to a total of 4,461, although the average scale per distributor decreased by 7.88% [1] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 is forecasted to be 78.80%, with a net profit margin of 40.23% [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 45.07 CNY, based on a current price of 33.36 CNY [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading supplier in the automotive hose industry, focusing on both traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, with a strong customer base and stable supply relationships [1][25]. - The growth in the new energy vehicle sector is expected to drive significant revenue increases, with projected revenues of 9.07 billion CNY in 2022, 11.09 billion CNY in 2023, and 13.63 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16.81%, 22.31%, and 22.88% respectively [1][44]. - The company is actively expanding into the AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) industry, particularly in liquid cooling systems, which is anticipated to become a new growth area [3][26]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 2002, the company specializes in automotive hose products, including those for fuel systems, cooling systems, and braking systems, and has established relationships with over 50 automotive manufacturers and 200 secondary suppliers [1][15][62]. Main Business Situation - The automotive industry is experiencing a resurgence, with a projected 35.42% year-on-year growth in new energy vehicle sales in 2024, reaching 12.858 million units [2][53][59]. - The company has a comprehensive product range and technical capabilities, covering both rubber and nylon products, and has a strong customer base across various automotive manufacturers [2][60]. Incremental Business - The company has begun to penetrate the AIDC market, with its liquid cooling products receiving UL certification and entering multiple supplier systems, indicating a positive outlook for future growth in this segment [3][26]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.80 billion CNY, 22.88 billion CNY, and 29.23 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.60 billion CNY, 3.71 billion CNY, and 4.60 billion CNY [4][44]. - The company is compared to peers in the automotive parts sector, with an average PE ratio of 37.55X, leading to a target price of 45.07 CNY for 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [6][16]. Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 506.01 billion, 268.47 billion, and 268.5 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 10.54%, 11.56%, and 11.64% [1]. - The revenue from liquor sales increased by 10.82% to 505.80 billion yuan, indicating robust demand [1]. - The series liquor revenue saw a significant increase of 18.30% to 70.22 billion yuan, with its proportion of total revenue rising to 13.88% [2]. - Direct sales channels performed exceptionally well, with direct sales revenue growing by 20.19% to 232.20 billion yuan, accounting for 45.91% of total revenue [2]. - The company maintained a stable profit margin, with a slight increase in net profit margin to 53.06% [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company's gross margin was 91.97%, and the net profit margin was 53.06%, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.64 and +0.48 percentage points respectively [3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 276.24 yuan per 10 shares, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of 75% for 2024 [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are expected to grow by 9%, 8%, and 8% respectively, reaching 1903 billion, 2059 billion, and 2224 billion yuan [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase by 9%, 8%, and 8% for the same period, reaching 943 billion, 1022 billion, and 1108 billion yuan [3]. Valuation Metrics - The company is expected to have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21X, 19X, and 18X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 75.03 yuan, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 21.03 [5]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 1,982.52 billion yuan, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 7.72 for 2025 [7][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The company has shown signs of effectiveness in its new retail strategy, with revenue and profit figures reflecting the current market challenges [1]. - The company is undergoing a transition phase with its new retail and international strategies, which are currently in the investment stage, leading to increased fixed costs [1][4]. - The company has diversified its product offerings, with resilient growth in the wardrobe segment despite overall revenue declines in other categories [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 587 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%, and a net profit of 35 million yuan, down 4.2% [1]. - For the full year 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.475 billion yuan, a decline of 4.7%, and a net profit of 199 million yuan, down 31.8% [1]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 28.68%, a decrease of 0.90 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 5.74%, down 2.28 percentage points [1]. Product Segment Performance - In 2024, the overall kitchen cabinet revenue was 2.025 billion yuan, down 9.3%, while the overall wardrobe revenue increased by 1.4% to 1.059 billion yuan [2]. - In Q1 2025, the kitchen cabinet revenue was 322 million yuan, a decrease of 17.2%, while the wardrobe revenue rose by 8.3% to 206 million yuan [2]. Channel and International Development - The company has implemented a new retail strategy, referred to as the "140 Strategy," focusing on enhancing dealer capabilities and expanding multi-channel marketing [4]. - The company has also accelerated its international development, establishing a manufacturing base in Thailand and satellite factories to enhance local service capabilities [4]. Financial Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 230 million yuan, 250 million yuan, and 270 million yuan respectively [5][7]. - The expected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 12.54, 11.41, and 10.45 respectively [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.1 billion with a year-on-year growth of 14% in Q1 2025, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 110 million, up 10.3% year-on-year [1]. - For 2024, the company expects a revenue of 8.1 billion, an increase of 34%, but a decrease in net profit attributable to the parent company by 19% to 330 million [1]. - The company is facing multiple external challenges in 2024, including geopolitical tensions, rising shipping costs, and increased tariffs, which pose significant risks to supply chain stability [1][3]. - Despite these challenges, the company is focusing on product diversification, channel expansion, and logistics optimization to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [1]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.1 billion, with a net profit of 110 million, and a non-recurring net profit of 120 million, reflecting a 25% increase year-on-year [1]. - The projected revenue for the furniture series in 2024 is 4.2 billion, up 37%, while the home series is expected to generate 3 billion, up 36% [1]. - The company anticipates a revenue of 4.9 billion from Europe, a 31% increase, and 3 billion from North America, a 39% increase in 2024 [1]. Adjusted Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 380 million, 550 million, and 700 million respectively, reflecting the impact of tariff uncertainties and supply chain transitions [5]. - The adjusted price-to-earnings ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 20X, 14X, and 11X respectively [5]. Market and Competitive Landscape - The company plans to transition its main shipping base to Southeast Asia by Q3 2025, with 40% of shipments currently originating from this region [3]. - The cost of furniture procurement in Southeast Asia is approximately 10% higher than domestic costs, with additional logistics costs leading to an overall increase of 25% in operational costs [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Zhaojin Mining, with a target price of 29.6 HKD, indicating a significant upside from the current price of 18.84 HKD [5]. Core Views - Zhaojin Mining is positioned as a high-potential gold enterprise with three main advantages: strong management capabilities through its partnership with Zijin Mining, an imminent increase in production from the Haiyu Gold Mine, and a cost advantage due to high-quality resources [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhaojin Mining, established in 2004, is a comprehensive gold producer and refiner based in Shandong, China, with over 20 gold mines and a resource reserve exceeding 1,300 tons, ranking third among domestic gold mining companies [1][12]. Management and Strategic Partnership - The acquisition of a 20% stake by Zijin Mining for 4.06 billion CNY in late 2022 has positioned Zijin as the second-largest shareholder, enhancing Zhaojin's operational management and resource acquisition capabilities [1][14][15]. Financial Analysis - The company's revenue has shown steady growth, with a projected net profit of 36.1 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a PE ratio of 18.5 [4][19]. The average profit per gram of gold is expected to rise from 116 CNY/g in 2018 to 355 CNY/g in 2024, driven by rising gold prices [2][39]. Resource Strength - Zhaojin Mining holds over 1,446 tons of gold resources, with 517 tons being extractable. The Haiyu Gold Mine, expected to start production in 2025, is projected to significantly boost the company's output [29][30][44]. Production Capacity - The company has maintained a stable gold production level of around 20 tons annually, with expectations for increased output following the commissioning of new mines [36][38]. Cost Structure - Zhaojin Mining benefits from a low-cost production structure, with an average cost of 214 CNY/g for gold, which is competitive within the industry [39][41]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that gold prices will continue to rise due to various factors, including inflation risks and a potential decline in the US dollar index, which could further enhance Zhaojin's profitability [3][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [7][17]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 891.75 billion CNY and a net profit of 318.53 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.09% and 5.44% respectively [1]. - The cash dividend payout ratio for 2024 is projected to be 70%, an increase of 10 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 369.40 billion CNY and a net profit of 148.60 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth of 6.05% and 5.80% respectively [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to generate 831.27 billion CNY in liquor revenue, with a gross margin of 82.21%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The revenue from Wuliangye liquor products is projected to be 678.75 billion CNY, with a gross margin of 87.02%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.38 percentage points [2]. - The overall liquor growth is primarily driven by price increases, with a volume growth of 1.81% and a price increase of 6.81% year-on-year [2]. Channel and Sales Insights - In 2024, the revenue from distribution and direct sales channels is expected to be 487.38 billion CNY and 343.89 billion CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth of 5.99% and 12.89% [2]. - The number of total distributors for Wuliangye has increased to 2,652, up by 82 from the previous year, indicating a growth in distributor scale by 2.71% [2]. Profitability Analysis - The gross margin and net profit margin for 2024 are projected to be 77.05% and 35.72% respectively, with a slight decrease in net profit margin by 0.56 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Operating cash flow is expected to decrease by 18.69% year-on-year to 339.40 billion CNY [3]. Future Projections - The company anticipates revenue growth of 5.3%, 6.0%, and 6.8% for the years 2025 to 2027, reaching 939 billion CNY, 995 billion CNY, and 1,062 billion CNY respectively [4]. - Net profit is projected to grow by 5.1%, 6.7%, and 7.6% for the same period, reaching 335 billion CNY, 357 billion CNY, and 384 billion CNY respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report gives China Ping An a "Buy" rating with a target price of 61.61 CNY per share, indicating a potential upside of 20.4% from the current price of 51.18 CNY as of May 7, 2025 [4]. Core Views - China Ping An is a leading insurance company in China with strong resilience in its business operations, being one of the most comprehensive financial groups with a complete range of financial licenses [1][12]. - The life insurance segment is expected to contribute over 70% of net profit by the end of 2024, driven by ongoing reforms and improvements in business quality [2]. - The property insurance segment shows resilience despite challenges, with a projected improvement in overall profitability due to better cost management [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - China Ping An was established in 1988 and is the first joint-stock insurance company in China, with a wide range of financial services including insurance, banking, and asset management [1][12]. - The company has a diversified ownership structure with no controlling shareholder, reflecting a market-oriented governance model [15][16]. 2. Life Insurance - The life insurance and health insurance business is experiencing steady growth, with premium income rebounding post-pandemic, showing a 10.85% increase in 2023 [28]. - The company is focusing on high-quality transformation and has seen significant improvements in new business value, with a new business value rate of 26% in 2024, up 7.3 percentage points year-on-year [38]. - The total premium income from life insurance products reached 2,099 billion CNY in 2024, a 28.4% increase, with traditional life insurance contributing the most [33]. 3. Property Insurance - The property insurance segment, particularly auto insurance, remains a key revenue driver, with total premium income reaching 3,218 billion CNY in 2024, a 6.5% increase [42]. - The auto insurance business has shown resilience, recovering from a decline in 2021, with premium income of 2,233 billion CNY in 2024, up 4.4% [47]. - Non-auto insurance business is also improving, with premium income growing by 11.6% to 985 billion CNY in 2024 [42]. 4. Financial Performance - As of Q1 2025, the total assets and net assets of China Ping An were 13.18 trillion CNY and 1.3 trillion CNY, respectively, maintaining the top position in the industry [21]. - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for 2024, benefiting from a recovery in capital markets, with a year-on-year growth of 47.8% to 126.6 billion CNY [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianli International Holdings (01773) with a target price not specified [4] Core Viewpoints - The company reported FY25H1 revenue of 1.9 billion RMB, a 14% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 390 million RMB, reflecting a 36% year-on-year growth. The earnings per share (EPS) reached 0.1928 RMB, up 39% [1] - Tianli has established a strong presence in Sichuan Province and operates schools across 36 cities in China, providing comprehensive educational services to students [1] - The company has seen significant success in student admissions, with 272 high school graduates receiving offers from the world's top 50 universities in 2024, an increase of 145 from 2023 [2] - The company aims to expand its profitable high school business and enhance its service offerings, including online campus shopping, logistics services, and international education consulting [2] - Adjusted revenue forecasts for FY25-27 are 4.32 billion RMB, 5.64 billion RMB, and 7.39 billion RMB, with net profits of 770 million RMB, 1.02 billion RMB, and 1.35 billion RMB respectively [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY25H1 revenue was 1.9 billion RMB, net profit was 390 million RMB, and EPS was 0.1928 RMB, showing significant growth compared to the previous year [1] Educational Achievements - Tianli students excelled in various academic competitions, with 17 students winning provincial first prizes and 272 high school graduates receiving offers from prestigious universities [2] Business Strategy - The company plans to strengthen its high school operations and diversify its service offerings to support student development [2] Revenue Projections - Revised revenue estimates for FY25-27 are 4.32 billion RMB, 5.64 billion RMB, and 7.39 billion RMB, with adjusted net profits of 770 million RMB, 1.02 billion RMB, and 1.35 billion RMB [3]