——策略周观点 升级为全面牛市可能的条件 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略周报 Table_ReportType] | ] [Table_A 樊继拓 uthor策略首席 分析师 | | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521060001 | | | 箱： fanjituo@cindasc.com | 邮 | [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 29 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 李畅 策略分析师 执业编号：S1500523070001 邮 箱： lichang@cindasc.com [升级为全面牛市 Table_Title] 可能的条件 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 29 日 核心结论：战略上，去年 10 月以来震荡市的特征有：估值位置偏低、 上市公司盈利偏弱、政策基调积极、各类主题机会活跃，与 2013-2014 年中和 2019 年的震荡市类似，后续有望迎来全面牛市。但战术层面， 对比之前震荡市升级为全面牛市临界点（2014 年 7 月和 2020 年 7 月） 的催化因素， ...

化债持续推进，部分环保企业应收问题改善 【】【】[Table_Industry] 环保周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 29 日 156.tcy 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 环保 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [左前明 Table_Author] 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 郭雪 环保联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525030002 邮 箱：guoxue @cindasc.com 吴柏莹 环保行业分析师 化工行业： 执业编号：S1500524100001 邮 箱：wuboying@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 化债持续推进，部分环保企业应收问题改善 2025 年 6 月 29 日 本期内容提要: ...

The provided content does not contain any quantitative models or factors, nor does it include any related construction processes, formulas, evaluations, or backtesting results. The documents primarily focus on industry analysis, company updates, and market trends across various sectors such as light manufacturing, exports, new tobacco products, home furnishings, and others. There is no mention of quantitative models or factors in the provided text.

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Momentum Model - Construction Idea: The momentum model is designed to capture the trend-following behavior in the market, particularly effective during the end-of-quarter period when funds tend to adjust their positions based on recent performance trends [13][37] - Detailed Construction Process: The model identifies stocks with strong recent performance and allocates more weight to them. The formula used is: $ \text{Momentum Score} = \frac{\text{Price}_{t} - \text{Price}_{t-1}}{\text{Price}_{t-1}} $ where $\text{Price}_{t}$ represents the current price and $\text{Price}_{t-1}$ represents the price at the previous time period [13][37] - Evaluation: The momentum model performs well during the end-of-quarter period, aligning with the characteristic fund allocation behavior [13][37] Model Backtesting Results Momentum Model - Information Ratio (IR): 1.75 [38] - Excess Return: 1.95% [38] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Value Factor - Construction Idea: The value factor aims to identify undervalued stocks by comparing their market price to fundamental metrics such as earnings, book value, and cash flow [13][29] - Detailed Construction Process: The factor is constructed using the following formula: $ \text{Value Score} = \frac{\text{Earnings}}{\text{Price}} + \frac{\text{Book Value}}{\text{Price}} + \frac{\text{Cash Flow}}{\text{Price}} $ where $\text{Earnings}$, $\text{Book Value}$, and $\text{Cash Flow}$ are fundamental metrics, and $\text{Price}$ is the current market price [13][29] - Evaluation: The value factor has shown a significant shift in fund allocation from growth to value stocks since April, indicating its effectiveness in capturing the market's structural adjustments [29][33] Factor Backtesting Results Value Factor - Information Ratio (IR): 1.38 [38] - Excess Return: 1.45% [38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - Oil prices have retracted from geopolitical premiums due to recent diplomatic developments, including a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, and a request from Trump for energy producers to lower prices. As of June 27, 2025, Brent and WTI prices were $66.80 and $65.52 per barrel, respectively [7][28]. - The report highlights a decrease in oil prices, with Brent down by 11.50% and WTI down by 11.27% compared to the previous week. Russian Urals prices remained stable, while ESPO prices fell by 11.13% [28]. - The report notes a slight increase in U.S. crude oil production to 13.435 million barrels per day, while the number of active drilling rigs decreased to 432 [48][49]. - U.S. refinery crude processing increased to 16.987 million barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 94.70%, up by 1.5 percentage points [59]. - The total U.S. crude oil inventory decreased by 5.599 million barrels to 818 million barrels, with commercial inventories down by 5.836 million barrels [69]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of June 27, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $66.80 per barrel, down by $8.68 per barrel (-11.50%) from the previous week. WTI crude futures settled at $65.52 per barrel, down by $8.32 per barrel (-11.27%) [28]. Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 378, an increase of 1 from the previous week. The number of floating drilling platforms decreased to 134, down by 2 [37]. U.S. Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.435 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.04 million barrels per day from the previous week. The number of active drilling rigs decreased by 6 to 432 [48]. U.S. Crude Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing increased by 125,000 barrels per day to 16.987 million barrels per day, with a utilization rate of 94.70% [59]. U.S. Crude Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventory was 818 million barrels, a decrease of 5.599 million barrels (-0.68%) from the previous week. Commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 5.836 million barrels (-1.39%) [69]. Related Stocks - Key stocks mentioned include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), PetroChina, Sinopec, and China Oilfield Services [1].

央行 Q2 例会新增信息有限 跨季后资金有望延续宽松 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 250629 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 6 月 29 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 3央行 Q2 例会新增信息有限 跨季后资金有望延续宽松 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 29 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [➢Table_Summary] 货币市场 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [123]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in costs, leading to an overall improvement in refining product margins. The domestic refining project margin reached 2575.82 CNY/ton, up by 190.23 CNY/ton (+7.97%), while the international margin was 1229.14 CNY/ton, increasing by 226.59 CNY/ton (+22.60%) [1][2]. - Brent crude oil's average price decreased to 69.25 USD/barrel, down by 8.31% [1]. - The report indicates that geopolitical tensions initially raised oil prices, but subsequent signals from the U.S. government and diplomatic efforts led to a price drop [1][12]. - The chemical sector saw improved profitability due to a notable drop in costs, with prices for polyethylene and polypropylene rising, while other chemical products experienced slight price declines but improved margins [1][49]. - The polyester sector also showed a rise in price levels, with PX prices following crude oil trends, leading to a significant expansion in price differentials [1][79]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The refining sector experienced a significant increase in product price differentials, with domestic and international margins improving due to falling crude oil prices [1][2]. - The report notes that the average prices for domestic diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel increased, with respective price differentials also rising [12]. Chemical Sector - The chemical sector's profitability improved as costs decreased, with notable price increases for polyethylene and polypropylene, while other products like EVA and pure benzene saw slight price drops but improved margins [1][49][62]. - The report indicates that the price of MMA decreased slightly, but the price differential improved [1][66]. Polyester Sector - The polyester industry saw an upward trend in price levels, with PX prices influenced by crude oil prices, leading to a significant expansion in price differentials [1][79]. - The report highlights that the average price for PTA increased slightly, while the industry faced challenges with profitability [1][91].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The electronic sub-industry index has seen significant growth, with the semiconductor sector increasing by 2.70% year-to-date and 4.55% this week [8] - NVIDIA's stock price has reached a new high, with a market capitalization of $3.85 trillion, making it the highest valued public company globally. The CEO indicated that the data center market is transitioning to a trillion-dollar market driven by AI infrastructure [2][8] - Micron's FY25Q3 revenue was $9.3 billion, exceeding guidance, with a year-over-year increase of 37% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 15%. The gross margin was reported at 39.0%, up 10.9 percentage points year-over-year [2][26] - The report suggests focusing on companies in the AI sector, including both overseas and domestic firms, as well as companies in the Apple supply chain [2] Summary by Sections Electronic Industry Performance - The electronic sub-industry index has generally risen, with notable increases in various sectors this week, including a 4.55% rise in semiconductors and a 7.88% rise in other electronics [8] - Key North American stocks have also shown positive performance, with NVIDIA increasing by 9.66% this week [11] NVIDIA Insights - NVIDIA's stock price reflects positive market expectations for the AI industry chain, with significant order growth driven by investments in cloud and sovereign AI infrastructure [2][8] Micron Financial Performance - Micron's FY25Q3 results showed a revenue of $9.3 billion, with a gross margin of 39.0%, indicating strong performance in the DRAM and NAND segments [26][27] - The company anticipates further growth in HBM market share, potentially matching DRAM levels by the second half of 2025 [2] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends monitoring various companies in the AI sector, including both international and domestic players, as well as those in the Apple supply chain [2]

电新周报：五月风电装机大幅增长，宇树年收入超 10 亿 [Table_Industry] 电力设备与新能源 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 29 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [行业周报 Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 电力设备与新能源 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 武浩 电新行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520090001 联系电话：010-83326711 邮 箱：wuhao@cindasc.com 孙然 电新行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524080003 联系电话：18721956681 邮 箱：sunran@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 五月风电装机大幅增长，宇树年收入超 10 亿 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 29 日 本期核心观点 [Tale_S 行业展望及配置建议： um ➢ 新能源汽车： 动力电池格局有望优化，板块 ...

铁水淡季不淡，钢铁板块再迎配置良机 【】【】 钢铁 [Table_Industry] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 29 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 钢铁 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 高 升 能源、钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮 箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 刘 波 能源、钢铁行业研究助理 邮 箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [铁水淡季不淡，钢铁板块再迎配置良机 Table_Title] 库存周环比增加 1.82%。本周原料价格整体下跌，日照港澳洲粉矿 （62%Fe）下跌 2.0 元/吨，京唐港 ...