非银的弹性有望逐步增加 | 李畅 | 策略分析师 | | --- | --- | | | 执业编号：S1500523070001 | | 邮 | 箱： lichang@cindasc.com | ——策略周观点 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略周报 Table_ReportType] 徐国铨 策略研究助理 邮 箱：xuguoquan@cindasc.com [非银的弹性有望逐步增加 Table_Title] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 核心结论：本周保险板块表现较强，直接影响因素是政策和风格。我们 认为金融板块的行情可能从银行轮动到非银。保险估值性价比更好，一 旦出现政策催化，率先表现出弹性。后续如果指数突破，券商也会有表 现。2021-2023 年非银 PB 下降速度远快于 ROE 下降速度，这一点和银行 较为类似，因此理论上也存在较大的估值修复空间。动态来看，由于非 银当前估值水平仍在长期趋势以下偏低位置。而非 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - International oil prices experienced fluctuations, with Brent and WTI prices recorded at $60.05 and $56.52 per barrel respectively as of December 19, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 1.75% and 1.60% from the previous week [2][9]. - The geopolitical situation, particularly discussions around the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, has influenced market dynamics, leading to a mixed impact on oil prices [2][9]. - The oil and petrochemical sector showed resilience, with a 1.60% increase in the sector's performance compared to a 0.28% decline in the broader market (CSI 300) [10]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of December 19, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $60.05 per barrel, down $1.07 (-1.75%), while WTI crude futures settled at $56.52 per barrel, down $0.92 (-1.60%) [2][17]. - The Urals crude price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while ESPO crude fell to $47.86 per barrel, down $1.77 (-3.57%) [2][17]. Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs increased to 375, with a net addition of 7 rigs, while floating drilling rigs rose to 131, with a net addition of 2 rigs [27]. U.S. Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.843 million barrels per day, a decrease of 10,000 barrels from the previous week [44]. - The active rig count in the U.S. decreased to 406, down by 8 rigs [44]. U.S. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing increased to 16.988 million barrels per day, with a utilization rate of 94.80%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous week [55]. U.S. Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventory stood at 837 million barrels, a decrease of 1.025 million barrels (-0.12%) from the previous week [62]. - Strategic oil reserves increased slightly to 412 million barrels, while commercial inventories decreased to 424 million barrels [62]. Related Companies - Key companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and PetroChina, among others [3].

A500 成跨年行情布局焦点 —— 量化市场追踪周报（2025W51） [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 8 证券研究报告 金工研究 [Table_ReportType] 金工点评报告 吴彦锦 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523090002 联系电话：+86 18616819227 邮 箱：wuyanjin@cindasc.com 周君睿 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523110005 联系电话：+86 19821223545 邮 箱：zhoujunrui@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 量化市场追踪周报(2025W51)：A500 成跨年行情 布局焦点 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 从整体仓位来看，截至 2025/12/19，主动权益型基金的平均仓位约为 86.92%。其中，普通股票型基金的平均仓位约为 90.44%（较上周下降 1.27pct），偏股混合型基金的平均仓位约为 87.89 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil processing industry Core Insights - The average global crude oil inventory change for 2026 is projected to be +204.90 thousand barrels per day according to IEA, EIA, and OPEC [2] - For Q4 2025, the average inventory change is expected to be +162.53 thousand barrels per day, showing a revision from previous forecasts [2] - Global crude oil supply for 2025 is forecasted at 10617.36, 10607.84, and 10470.71 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, indicating a year-on-year increase [2] - The global crude oil demand for 2025 is estimated at 10392.25, 10393.68, and 10513.66 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, reflecting a modest increase from 2024 [2] Summary by Sections Oil Supply - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global crude oil supply for 2026 to be 10865.02, 10742.59, and 10654.18 thousand barrels per day respectively, with increases from 2025 [2][35] - The Q4 2025 supply increase is projected at +414.30, +385.36, and +254.12 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively [35] Oil Demand - The demand for 2026 is forecasted at 10478.51, 10516.87, and 10651.70 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, indicating a growth from 2025 [2][35] - The demand increase for Q4 2025 is expected to be +108.72, +130.72, and +152.22 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively [4] Oil Prices - As of December 18, 2025, Brent crude, WTI, Russian ESPO, and Russian Urals prices are reported at 59.82, 56.00, 47.94, and 65.49 USD per barrel respectively, with significant declines observed over the year [9][10] - Year-to-date price changes show Brent down by -21.22%, WTI by -23.42%, and Russian ESPO by -33.37% [9][10] Oil Inventory - The global crude oil inventory change for 2025 is projected at +225.11, +214.16, and -42.95 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, with an average increase of +132.11 thousand barrels per day [26] - The U.S. total crude oil inventory as of December 12, 2025, stands at 83658.8 thousand barrels, reflecting a slight increase [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the petrochemical industry, but it provides insights into price trends and market conditions that could influence investment decisions. Core Insights - The report highlights that the downstream stocking demand for winter is nearing its end, with polyester filament experiencing slight inventory accumulation [1]. - Domestic key refining project price spread is reported at 2540.74 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 7.17 CNY/ton (0.28%), while the international price spread is at 1303.62 CNY/ton, showing a decrease of 27.50 CNY/ton (-2.07%) [2][3]. - Brent crude oil's average price for the week ending December 19, 2025, is noted at 60.08 USD/barrel, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 3.10% [2]. Refining Sector Summary - The report discusses geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, including negotiations between Ukraine and the U.S. and sanctions on Venezuelan oil, which have led to fluctuations in international oil prices [2]. - Domestic refined oil prices have slightly decreased, with improvements in price spreads. The average prices for diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene are reported as 6625.29 CNY/ton, 7641.71 CNY/ton, and 5800.48 CNY/ton, respectively [15]. - The report notes that the chemical sector has seen a general decline in chemical prices, with some products experiencing smaller declines relative to cost, leading to improved price spreads [2]. Chemical Sector Summary - In the polyester sector, the report indicates that the price of PX and MEG has slightly decreased, while PTA prices remain stable. The overall price trend in the polyester industry is downward due to weak demand and increased production capacity [2]. - The report mentions that the EVA market is seeing price declines as production resumes from maintenance, with the average price reported at 9778.57 CNY/ton [50]. - The report also highlights that the price of pure benzene remains stable, while styrene prices have decreased due to weak cost support, with the average price reported at 6614.29 CNY/ton [50].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The European Union announced a comprehensive plan for grid upgrades, expecting to invest €1.2 trillion by 2040, with €730 billion allocated for distribution networks and €240 billion for hydrogen networks. The plan anticipates an average annual investment of €80 billion, compared to the current annual investment of €50-60 billion. This investment will cover power interconnection, energy storage, and hydrogen sectors. The EU aims to reduce industrial electricity prices to enhance the export competitiveness of its industrial products [2][3] Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - Domestic manufacturers are well-positioned in high-voltage transmission, smart meters, and wind power, with advanced technologies. China's high-voltage technology enables large-scale, long-distance power transmission, effectively addressing energy distribution issues, making it highly competitive in overseas grid construction. The global power grid upgrade cycle is expected to significantly benefit these companies [4] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in power equipment exports and recommends companies such as Siyi Electric, Igor, Jinpan Technology, TBEA, China XD Electric, Huaming Equipment, Shunma Power, Mingyang Electric, and Samsung Medical [4]

行业点评：澳洲户储补贴加码，户储渗透率有望大幅提升 [Table_ReportDat] 2025 年 12 月 20 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [行业Tabl事项e_ReportType] 点评 [Table_StockAndRank] 电力设备与新能源 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 胡琎心 电新行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525080001 联系电话：010-83326711 邮 箱：hujinxin@cindasc.com 姚云峰 电力设备与新能源行业联系人 联系电话：18840829584 邮 箱：yaoyunfeng@cindasc.com 澳洲储能贡献国内供应商明显增量，需求具备持续性。据 CESA 储能应用分 会数据库统计，2025 年 1-9 月，中国企业在澳大利亚储能市场那些的订单 共计 43.21GWh，占比 20.13%，成为中国企业海外储能订单第二大来源地。 今年 9 月，特斯拉能源亚太区区域总监 Josef Tadich 透露，到 2026 年底， 特斯拉将在澳大利亚投入运营约 4.5GW/12GWh 的构网型储能系统（Grid Forming BESS），并预计这一数字未 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the express delivery industry is experiencing a structural optimization in peak season, with leading e-commerce express companies increasing their market share [3][4] - In November, the express delivery business volume grew by 5.0% year-on-year, with cumulative physical goods online retail sales reaching 11.82 trillion yuan, a 5.7% increase [4][15] - The report emphasizes the ongoing growth potential in the express delivery sector, driven by the rise of live e-commerce and increasing online shopping penetration [7][40] Summary by Sections Industry Situation - In November, the express delivery industry saw a business volume increase of 5.0% year-on-year, with a cumulative total of 1,807.4 billion packages delivered from January to November, reflecting a 14.9% year-on-year growth [4][15] - The average package value decreased by 12.9% year-on-year to approximately 65.4 yuan [15] Company Performance - In November, the business volume for major companies was as follows: YTO Express at 2.886 billion packages, Shentong Express at 2.502 billion packages, Yunda Express at 2.175 billion packages, and SF Express at 1.534 billion packages [5][28] - SF Express's business volume growth rate was 20.13%, while cumulative growth from January to November was 27.25% [5][28] Market Share - Cumulative market share from January to November showed YTO Express at 15.6%, Shentong Express at 13.1%, Yunda Express at 13.0%, and SF Express at 8.4% [5][29] - SF Express's market share increased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [29] Pricing Situation - The average price per package in the express delivery industry increased by 1.9% month-on-month in November, reaching 7.62 yuan, although it was down 8.3% year-on-year [6][26] - SF Express's average price per package was 13.47 yuan in November, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.29 yuan [6][29] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in SF Express as a leading comprehensive express logistics company, anticipating a turning point in operations and cash flow [8][41] - It also suggests looking at Zhongtong Express and YTO Express, while keeping an eye on Yunda Express and Shentong Express due to the ongoing recovery in the express delivery sector [8][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental sector [4]. Core Insights - The environmental sector has shown resilience, with a 0.3% increase in the sector's performance, outperforming the broader market [4][11]. - The report highlights the ongoing expansion of waste-to-energy companies in Southeast Asia, particularly in Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia, where waste management issues are significant [5][19][25]. - The Vietnamese government aims to increase waste recycling and processing, with a target of 95% by 2030, while currently, only 10% of waste is incinerated [21][22]. - Thailand's waste management is heavily reliant on landfills, with over 70% of waste sent to landfills, and the government plans to increase waste-to-energy capacity significantly by 2037 [25][26]. - Indonesia faces severe waste management challenges, with only 9-10% of waste processed properly, prompting government initiatives to expedite waste-to-energy project approvals [27][28]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of December 19, the environmental sector rose by 0.3%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which remained flat [4][11]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the release of the 2025 energy-saving and carbon reduction technology equipment directory, which includes over 350 technologies aimed at improving energy efficiency [32]. - The report notes the government's push for clean and efficient coal utilization, indicating a shift towards higher value products in the coal industry [33]. Waste-to-Energy Market in Southeast Asia - Vietnam generates significant waste, with 63% currently landfilled and only 10% incinerated. The government has set ambitious waste management goals [19][21]. - Thailand's waste generation is increasing rapidly, with a focus on enhancing waste-to-energy capacity as part of its renewable energy development plan [25][26]. - Indonesia's government is actively working to improve waste management, with plans to streamline project approvals for waste-to-energy facilities [27][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the environmental sector, particularly waste management and recycling, is expected to maintain high growth due to government policies and market reforms. Key companies to watch include Huanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment [5][51].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - In November, the industrial power generation in China increased by 2.7% year-on-year, while natural gas production rose by 5.7% year-on-year [4] - The report indicates a potential for profit improvement and value reassessment in the power sector due to previous supply-demand tensions [4] - The ongoing market reforms in electricity pricing are expected to lead to a slight increase in electricity prices, benefiting power operators [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of December 19, the utility sector declined by 0.6%, underperforming the broader market [11] - The electricity sector fell by 0.66%, while the gas sector saw a slight increase of 0.11% [12] Electricity Industry Data Tracking - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (Q5500) was 711 CNY/ton as of December 19, down 42 CNY/ton week-on-week [20] - Coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port decreased to 7.28 million tons, a decline of 20,000 tons week-on-week [26] - The average daily coal consumption for inland power plants was 3.758 million tons, down 166,000 tons/day week-on-week [29] Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking - The LNG ex-factory price index in China was 4,075 CNY/ton as of December 18, down 10.91% year-on-year [55] - Domestic natural gas apparent consumption in October was 34.77 billion cubic meters, a decrease of 1.6% year-on-year [4] - In November, LNG imports reached 6.94 million tons, an increase of 12.8% year-on-year [4] Key Industry News - The report highlights that the industrial power generation maintained growth, with November's output at 779.2 billion kWh, a 2.7% increase year-on-year [4] - The natural gas production in November was 21.9 billion cubic meters, reflecting a stable growth trend [4] Investment Recommendations - For the electricity sector, it is suggested to focus on leading coal power companies such as Guodian Power, Huaneng International, and Huadian International [4] - In the natural gas sector, companies with low-cost long-term gas sources and receiving station assets are recommended, such as Xin'ao Co. and Guanghui Energy [4]