市场波动加剧 VIX 普涨，尾部风险预期理性回落 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 5 月 17 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_FirstAuthor] 于明明 金融工程与金融产品首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 金工研究 [T金工ableReportType] 点评报告 于明明 金融工程与金融产品 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 崔诗笛 金融工程与金融产品 金融工程分析师 执业编号：S1500523080001 联系电话：+86 18516560686 邮 箱：cuishidi@cindasc.com 孙石 金融工程与金融产品 金融工程分析师 执业编号：S1500523080010 联系电话：+86 18817366228 邮 箱：sunshi@cindasc.com 信达证券股 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the light industry manufacturing sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - Overall consumer demand remains weak, but there are opportunities in specific segments where product and channel transformations can enhance market share, and brand recognition or performance recovery is expected [8] - The pet food segment shows high potential with strong consumer education barriers, brand loyalty, and significant single product effects [8] - The baby care market is fragmented, with strong brands rapidly increasing market share through cost-effectiveness and popular products, heavily relying on online sales [8] - Domestic second-tier brands in sanitary napkins and toothpaste are gaining market share, utilizing platforms like Douyin for marketing and channel empowerment [8] - The trend of innovative products and brand rejuvenation in the trendy toy sector is accelerating, with companies like Pop Mart and Blokus experiencing rapid revenue growth [8] Summary by Sections 1) Product & Channel Transformation - Baiya Co. reported a significant increase in revenue and is expected to see a gradual improvement in its profitability model [9] - Dengkang Oral Care's revenue growth exceeded expectations, with a sustainable improvement in profitability [9] - Runben Co. experienced strong revenue growth driven by new product launches, particularly in the sunscreen category [9] - Zhongchong Co. is successfully transforming its brand, with expectations of over 40% growth in its flagship product [9] - Companies in the trendy toy sector are well-positioned to benefit from consumer trends and new product launches [9] 2) High Competitive Barriers - Guibao Pet's revenue and profit growth exceeded expectations, driven by strong brand performance and successful high-end product launches [10] - The overall industry remains vibrant, with companies optimizing their product and channel structures [10] 3) Performance Recovery Expected - Chenguang Co. has underperformed due to a weak consumer environment, but recovery is anticipated if market conditions improve [10] - The company is focusing on enhancing its IP product strategy, which is expected to contribute to new growth points [10]

24&25Q1 包装板块综述：塑料包装&纸包装 延续稳健，金属包装或困境反转 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 16 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业专题研究（普通） [Table_StockAndRank] 轻工制造 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱： jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 24&25Q1 包装板块综述：塑料包装&纸包装 延续稳健，金属包装或困境反转 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 16 日 [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 塑料包装：收入保持稳健，盈利中枢抬升。永新股份 24Q4/25Q1 收入 +9.6%/+1.6%，归母净利润同比+41.7%/+2.9%，24Q4、25Q1 毛利率/ 净 利 率 分 别 为 25.9%/16.7% （ +1.6/+3.6pct ）、 21. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the light industry manufacturing sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - Overall consumer demand remains weak, but there are opportunities in specific segments where product and channel transformations can enhance market share, and brand recognition or performance recovery is expected [2][8] - The pet food sector shows high potential with strong consumer education barriers, brand loyalty, and significant single product effects [2][8] - The baby care market is fragmented, with leading brands rapidly increasing market share through cost-effectiveness and popular products, heavily relying on online sales [2][8] - Domestic second-tier brands in sanitary napkins and toothpaste are gaining market share, utilizing platforms like Douyin for traffic generation and empowering other platforms and offline markets [2][8] - The trend of innovative products and brand rejuvenation in the trendy toy sector is accelerating, with companies like Pop Mart and Blokus experiencing rapid revenue growth [2][8] Summary by Sections 1) Product & Channel Transformation - Baiya Co. reported a significant revenue increase of 39% in Q4 2024 and 30% in Q1 2025, with a strong performance in e-commerce and a positive outlook for its probiotic series [3][9] - Dengkang Oral Care also showed robust growth, with a 39% increase in Q4 2024 and 19% in Q1 2025, benefiting from an optimized product structure and strong online sales [3][9] - Runben Co. experienced a 34% revenue increase in Q4 2024 and 44% in Q1 2025, driven by the rapid launch of new products [4][9] - The trendy toy sector, represented by companies like Blokus and Pop Mart, saw revenue growth of 156% and 278% respectively, indicating a strong market presence [4][9] 2) High Competitive Barriers - Guibao Pet's revenue and profit exceeded expectations, driven by strong growth in its proprietary brand and successful high-end product launches [10] - The overall industry remains buoyant, with companies optimizing product and channel structures, leading to sustained revenue growth and improved profitability [10] 3) Performance Recovery Expected - Chenguang Co. reported lower-than-expected performance due to a weak consumer environment, but recovery is anticipated if market conditions improve [10] - The company is focusing on enhancing its IP product strategy, which is expected to contribute to new growth points [10]

24&25Q1 包装板块综述：塑料包装&纸包装 延续稳健，金属包装或困境反转 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 16 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业专题研究（普通） jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 24&25Q1 包装板块综述：塑料包装&纸包装 延续稳健，金属包装或困境反转 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 16 日 [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 塑料包装：收入保持稳健，盈利中枢抬升。永新股份 24Q4/25Q1 收入 +9.6%/+1.6%，归母净利润同比+41.7%/+2.9%，24Q4、25Q1 毛利率/ 净 利 率 分 别 为 25.9%/16.7% （ +1.6/+3.6pct ）、 21.3%/10.6% （-0.8/+0.1pct）。24Q4 表现靓丽主要系下游需求补库叠加成本下降，同时 规模效应释放。25Q1 原油价格持续下跌，彩印产品顺价，我们预计 25Q1 产品均价下跌中 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Horizon Robotics (9660.HK) [3] Core Insights - Horizon Robotics is positioned as a leader in the new generation of automotive intelligent chips and a world-class AI algorithm company, focusing on software-defined principles and exploring new boundaries in intelligent driving [5][14] - The intelligent driving market is expected to grow significantly, with the AD market projected to take over from ADAS as the main growth driver, achieving a market size of 407 billion yuan by 2030 [12][37] - The company has a leading market share in the intelligent driving computing solutions market, with a 28.65% share in the first half of 2024, and is expected to further increase its share in the OEM ADAS and AD markets [11][57] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Horizon Robotics focuses on intelligent driving chip platforms, full-scene intelligent driving solutions, and supporting toolchains, establishing itself as a comprehensive supplier in the industry [5][14] - The company has launched several intelligent driving chips, including J2, J3, J5, and J6, and has developed a self-adaptive BPU computing unit that maximizes computational efficiency [14] Market Growth - The AD+ADAS market in China has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 57.8% from 2019 to 2023, with the AD market growing at a CAGR of 144.2% [12][37] - By 2030, the AD market is expected to reach a size of 407 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 48.8% from 2025 to 2030 [12][37] Competitive Position - Horizon Robotics has a steadily increasing market share, with 41% in the ADAS market and over 30% in the AD market among Chinese OEMs by the end of 2024 [12][57] - The company has established partnerships with major OEMs, including BYD, Geely, and Chery, to support their intelligent driving strategies [61][69] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Horizon Robotics are expected to reach 36.10 billion yuan in 2025, 56.97 billion yuan in 2026, and 80.53 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 51%, 58%, and 41% respectively [6] - The company anticipates a return to profitability by 2027, with a projected net profit of 668 million yuan [6] Customer Base and Partnerships - Horizon Robotics has a broad customer base, covering major domestic automakers and new energy vehicle manufacturers, which positions it well for future growth as the demand for intelligent driving solutions increases [69]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" based on its strong performance and growth potential [10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 5.09 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 53.92%. The social business revenue reached 4.63 billion RMB, growing by 58.1%, while the innovative business revenue was 460 million RMB, up by 21.3% [1][2]. - The operating profit was 729 million RMB, an increase of 32.3%, and the adjusted EBITDA was 963 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 42.8% [1]. - The company expects to record a revenue of approximately 1.5 to 1.57 billion RMB in Q1 2025, which is a year-on-year increase of about 41.5% to 48.1% [2]. Summary by Sections Social Business Performance - The social business continues to show robust growth, with a revenue of 4.63 billion RMB in 2024, up 58.1%. Key products like MICO and YoHo are contributing significantly, while the new product SUGO has seen revenue growth exceeding 200% [3]. - The average monthly active users (MAU) for the social business reached 32.835 million in Q1 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.4% [3]. Innovative Business Development - The innovative business, particularly in premium games, has shown significant growth, with total revenue exceeding 705 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of over 80%. The flagship game "Alice's Dream: Merge Games" has also performed well [3]. - The social e-commerce segment has experienced revenue growth exceeding 200% and profit growth over 600% [3]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to maintain high growth in its social and gaming products, with new products in development. The acquisition of remaining shares in NBT Social Networking is anticipated to further enhance profits in 2025 [5]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 903 million, 1.12 billion, and 1.38 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 88.1%, 23.9%, and 23.3% respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Horizon Robotics (9660.HK) is "Buy" [3]. Core Insights - Horizon Robotics is positioned as a leader in the new generation of automotive intelligent chips and a world-class AI algorithm company, focusing on software-defined principles and exploring new boundaries in intelligent driving [5][14]. - The market for intelligent driving is expected to grow significantly, with the AD (Autonomous Driving) market projected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 144.2% from 2019 to 2023, and the overall AD+ADAS market expected to grow at a CAGR of 57.8% during the same period [5][12][37]. - Horizon Robotics has achieved a market share of 28.65% in the full-stage intelligent driving computing solutions market as of the first half of 2024, and is expected to further increase its share in the OEM ADAS and AD markets [5][57]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Horizon Robotics focuses on intelligent driving chip platforms, full-scene intelligent driving solutions, and supporting toolchains, establishing itself as a comprehensive supplier in the industry [5][14]. - The company has launched several intelligent driving chips, including J2, J3, J5, and J6, and has developed a self-adaptive BPU computing unit that maximizes computational efficiency [14]. Market Growth - The AD+ADAS market is projected to reach a scale of 407 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 48.8% from 2025 to 2030 [12][37]. - The domestic OEM market share has increased from 19.8% in 2019 to 39.8% in 2023, with expectations to exceed 60% by 2029 [61]. Competitive Position - Horizon Robotics has established a strong customer base, providing stable and reliable intelligent driving solutions to 27 OEMs, covering 42 brands [57][69]. - The company is recognized for its competitive advantages in cost-effectiveness, software capabilities, and customization, which have solidified its position in the industry [11][21]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Horizon Robotics are estimated at 36.10 billion yuan in 2025, 56.97 billion yuan in 2026, and 80.53 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 51%, 58%, and 41% respectively [6]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive by 2027, with a forecasted profit of 668 million yuan [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided content, but the report indicates a positive outlook on the company's strategic moves into the trendy toy market [1]. Core Insights - The company, Quantum Song (QSG), has announced a merger and investment cooperation with Shenzhen Yiqi Culture Co., Ltd. (Letsvan), marking its entry into the trendy toy market and broader consumer sectors [1]. - Letsvan focuses on IP incubation, operation, and commercialization, with popular IPs like "WAKUKU" and "ZIYULI" forming the core of its product matrix [1]. - The company plans to launch a new product, "WAKUKU Fox and Rabbit CP," on May 17, 2025, which is expected to enhance its IP business growth [1]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Quantum Song has made a strategic shift towards the trendy toy industry, with Letsvan becoming a subsidiary post-merger [1]. - The company has a strong product lineup, with the "WAKUKU" series gaining market recognition and achieving rapid sales [3]. Financial Performance - For the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, the company reported revenue of 727 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.3% [3]. - Net profit reached 127 million yuan, up 17.8% year-on-year and 57.1% quarter-on-quarter, with adjusted net profit at 132 million yuan [3]. - The company has a cash reserve of 1.213 billion yuan and a registered user base of 139.6 million [3]. Product Development - The "WAKUKU" series has seen successful product launches, with the latest "WAKUKU Panda" selling out within two hours of its offline release [3]. - The new product line includes various themed fox and rabbit figures, aimed at deepening consumer engagement and brand recognition [3].

超配价值和低位成长 ——行业配置主线探讨 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 15 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 ‹ 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略专题报告（深度 Table_ReportType] ） | ] [Table_A 樊继拓 uthor策略首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521060001 | | 联系电话：+86 13585643916 | | 邮 箱： fanjituo@cindasc.com | | 李畅 策略分析师 | 执业编号：S1500523070001 联系电话：+86 18817552575 邮 箱： lichang@cindasc.com [超配价值和低位成长 Table_Title] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 15 日 核心结论： ➢ 5 月之后，随着年报、一季报披露窗口期已过，中美关税谈判取得一定实 质性进展，市场风险偏好可能会有所回升，经验上部分投资者会重新关 注成长。部分国际科技巨头发布的一季度数据均显示资本开支显著增 加、鸿蒙 P ...