Profit Trends - In the first half of 2025, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 34,365.0 billion, a year-on-year decline of 1.8% compared to a previous decline of 1.1%[1] - Operating revenue reached CNY 66.78 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, slightly down from 2.7%[1] - In June, profits decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous decline of 9.1%[1] Production and Pricing - Industrial production accelerated, with June's industrial added value growing by 6.8% year-on-year, driven by strong export performance and domestic demand during the 618 shopping festival[1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% year-on-year in June, continuing to exert pressure on profit recovery[1] - Profit margins for the first half of 2025 recorded 5.15%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points year-on-year, despite a slight increase of 0.18 percentage points month-on-month[1] Inventory and Receivables - Finished goods inventory reached CNY 6.60 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1%, indicating a slowdown in nominal inventory growth[1] - The average accounts receivable collection period decreased to 69.8 days in June, the first drop below 70 days in 2025, although it still increased by 3.6 days year-on-year[1] Sector Performance - Equipment manufacturing profits grew by 9.6% in June, reversing a previous decline of 2.9% in May, contributing 3.8 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth[2] - The "two new" policies positively impacted profits in sectors like medical equipment and consumer goods, with significant profit increases of 160.0% for smart drones and 97.2% for computers[2] - However, downstream consumer goods manufacturing sectors such as furniture and textiles experienced negative profit growth[2]

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - As of July 24, 2023, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 978,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, but a month-on-month decrease of 15.2%[2] - Subway passenger volume growth in July was 0.36% year-on-year and 4.31% month-on-month, indicating sustained travel demand[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - By July 26, 2023, the average operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 0.27 percentage points to 83.38%, while the operating rate of coke ovens fell by 0.77 percentage points to 73.11%[3] - The operating rate of semi-steel tires dropped by 3.25 percentage points to 73.8% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of anti-involution policies[3] Price Performance - As of July 25, 2023, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.35% week-on-week, while the average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables rose by 0.27%[4] - The price of eggs surged by 5.56% week-on-week due to seasonal demand from summer tourism and early Mid-Autumn Festival preparations[4] International Macro - The U.S. employment market remains stable, with initial jobless claims dropping to 217,000, alleviating concerns about rising unemployment rates[9] - The U.S. PMI for manufacturing in July was 49.5, below the expected 52.7, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[9] Policy and Market Trends - The yield on 30-year government bonds rose to 1.95%, while the yield on 10-year bonds reached 1.7%, indicating a significant adjustment in the bond market[1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1763.8 in July, reflecting a 5.3% month-on-month increase but a 7.8% year-on-year decline, indicating fluctuating shipping demand[2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced a three-week consecutive rise, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 2.27% to 25,388.35 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 2.51%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 1.83% [2][4]. - Among the ten sectors in the Hong Kong stock market, all but the telecommunications services sector saw gains, with materials, industrials, and energy sectors leading the way with increases of 8.16%, 5.89%, and 5.13% respectively [7][11]. - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange rose to HKD 287.94 billion, an increase of HKD 41.215 billion from the previous week, while the average short-selling amount also increased [13][19]. Group 2 - As of July 25, the price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios for the Hang Seng Index were 11.32 times and 1.19 times, respectively, both at the 84th percentile since 2019 [17][24]. - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index was calculated at 4.44%, which is significantly below the three-year rolling average [19][24]. - The investment sentiment towards the Hong Kong market is expected to remain positive, with a focus on sectors benefiting from favorable policies, such as stablecoin concept stocks, innovative pharmaceuticals, AI industry chains, and sectors showing better-than-expected mid-year performance [39][36].

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - As of July 24, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 978,000 units in July, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, but a month-on-month decrease of 15.2%[2] - Subway passenger volume growth in July was 0.36% year-on-year and 4.31% month-on-month[2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1763.8 as of July 25, a month-on-month increase of 5.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - As of July 26, the average operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 0.27 percentage points to 83.38%[3] - The operating rate of coke ovens fell by 0.77 percentage points to 73.11%[3] - The operating rate of electric furnaces decreased by 1.45 percentage points to 51.59%[3] - The operating rate of asphalt plants dropped significantly by 4 percentage points to 28.8%[3] Price Performance - As of July 25, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.35% week-on-week, while the futures settlement price rose by 0.19%[4] - The average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables increased by 0.27%, while the average price of 6 monitored fruits decreased by 2.31%[4] - Egg prices rose by 5.56% week-on-week due to seasonal demand[4] International Macro - The U.S. and Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia reached a trade agreement, with tariffs on Japan set at 15%[7] - The EU has prepared a countermeasure list against the U.S. totaling €93 billion (approximately $110 billion) in trade[7] - The U.S. job market remains stable, but investment data continues to show weakness, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.5, below the expected 52.7[8]

Group 1: Market Performance - The average daily change for the North Exchange (北证) and A-shares (A股) shows significant fluctuations, with a peak of 30% for Tianrun Technology (天润科技) on July 25, 2025[8] - The trading volume for the North Exchange reached a total of 600 billion CNY, with an average turnover rate of 16% as of July 25, 2025[6] - The average price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for companies listed on the North Exchange varies significantly across industries, with some sectors showing a PE as high as 516.07[12] Group 2: Stock Performance - The top-performing stocks on July 25, 2025, include Tianrun Technology with a 30% increase and a market capitalization of 29.19 billion CNY[8] - Conversely, the worst-performing stock, Jikang Technology (基康技术), saw a decline of 12.56% with a market capitalization of 52.76 billion CNY[9] - The average daily change for the North Exchange was notably higher than that of the A-share market, indicating a more volatile trading environment[7] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The report highlights risks including lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, and increased market competition[13] - Market volatility remains a significant concern, impacting investor sentiment and stock performance across various sectors[13]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In the first half of 2025, total revenue growth for the fiscal accounts was -0.6%, an improvement from -1.3% previously, while total expenditure growth increased to 8.9% from 6.6%[2] - The revenue-expenditure gap reached a new high for 2023, indicating a proactive fiscal approach in the first half of the year[2] Structural Improvements in Revenue - General public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.8 percentage points compared to Q1[5] - Tax revenue showed signs of recovery, with a cumulative growth rate of -1.2%, improving from -1.6%[5] - Non-tax revenue growth fell to 3.7%, significantly below the five-year average of 10.8%[5] Land Revenue Recovery - Government fund revenue saw a cumulative growth rate of -2.4%, an improvement from -6.9% in the previous period, primarily driven by a rebound in land sales in June[19] - Local land revenue growth narrowed to -6.5%, compared to -11.9% previously, influenced by increased supply of quality land in core cities[19] Special Bonds and Expenditure Support - The issuance of special bonds accelerated, with a cumulative expenditure growth rate of 30% for the second fiscal account, up from 16% previously[23] - A total of 2.16 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds were issued in the first half of 2025, marking a 45% increase year-on-year[23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the liquor sector, specifically focusing on the white liquor segment [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant market value held by public funds in white liquor stocks, indicating strong investor confidence in this sector [3][4]. - It provides a detailed analysis of the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the white liquor sector, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to historical trends [5][11]. - The report also discusses the proportion of active and index funds invested in white liquor stocks, showcasing the growing interest from various types of investment funds [6][10][12]. Summary by Sections - **Public Fund Holdings**: The total market value of public funds holding white liquor stocks is reported at 5,000 million yuan, reflecting a robust investment landscape [4]. - **P/E Analysis**: The report includes a P/E-TTM analysis for the white liquor sector, indicating a current P/E ratio that is competitive within the market [5][11]. - **Investment Fund Composition**: The report details the percentage of active and index funds that are heavily invested in white liquor stocks, with active funds showing a notable increase in their holdings [6][10][12].

行业点评报告 · 化工行业 "反内卷"浪潮来袭,化工景气有望筑底回升 2025 年 07 月 24 日 核心观点 化工行业 | | | 分析师 霍启迪 ☎：010-8092-7677 网：zhaiqidi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060004 孙思源 网: sunsiyuan_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523070004 相对沪深 300 表现图 2024-07-24 沪深300 基础化工 50% -50% 资料来源：iFind，中国银河证券研究院 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 事件:7月24日,国家发展改革委、市场监管总局联合发布《中华人民共和 ● 国价格法修正草案（征求意见稿）》，向社会公开征求意见。 0 政策整治"内卷式"竞争,化工行业有望走出周期底部。近年来,受产能快 速扩张、需求增速放缓等因素影响,我国包括化工行业在内的部分领域供需失 衡问题愈发显著,企业为抢占份额低价无序竞争,盈利空间被大幅压缩。2024 年、25Q1 基础化工板块销售毛利率分别为 17.4%、17.6 ...

—— 2025Q2 白酒板块基金重仓持股分析 维持 刘来珍 图5:白酒板块 PE-TTM 资料来源：公募基金季报, Wind,中国银河证券研究院 图4：主动型和指数型基金重仓白酒股市值占其股票投资市值比（%） ① 。 ② ③ ① ② 银河证券|CGS 行业跟踪报告 · 食品饮料行业 图1:公募基金重仓持有白酒股市值(亿元) ■持股总市值(亿元) 5,000.00 4,000.00 3,000.00 2,000.00 1,000.00 0.00 资料来源：公募基金季报，Wind，中国银河证券研究院 行业跟踪报告 · 食品饮料行业 主动型基金 =提数型基金 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 资料来源：公募基金季报, Wind,中国银河证券研究院 图6:帝亚吉欧(美股)P/E-TTM 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 图3： 主动型基金和指数型基金重仓白酒股市值 ■ 主动型基金 ■指数型基金 4,000.00 3,000.00 2,000.00 1,000.00 0.00 资料来源：公募基金季报, Wind, 中国银河证券研究院 · 1STD pe_ttm 80.0000 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Hainan Mining [7][50]. Core Views - Hainan Mining is focusing on three main sectors: iron ore, oil and gas, and new energy, with a strong resource base and a stable shareholding structure [9][12][50]. - The company has shown resilience in its iron ore business, maintaining high profit margins and expanding its oil and gas operations globally [7][9][38]. - The new energy segment is being developed through lithium mining and hydroxide production, with significant projects underway [7][44]. Financial Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 45.18 billion, 54.61 billion, and 62.93 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.13%, 20.86%, and 15.25% [2][51]. - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 7.64 billion, 8.55 billion, and 9.64 billion yuan, with growth rates of 8.12%, 11.97%, and 12.67% [2][51]. - The company's PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 20.20x, 18.04x, and 16.01x, indicating a premium compared to peers [50][52]. Business Layout - Hainan Mining has a stable shareholding structure with Fosun Group as the controlling shareholder, focusing on strategic metal and energy mineral exploration, development, and sales [9][12]. - The company’s revenue composition for 2024 is expected to be 48.41% from oil and gas, 37% from self-extracted and processed iron ore, 10.50% from iron ore trading and processing, and 4.08% from other businesses [7][15]. - The iron ore segment has shown strong performance with a gross margin of 45.77% for self-extracted and processed iron ore, and 10.94% for trading and processing [7][15][37]. Growth Drivers - The iron ore business is the cornerstone of Hainan Mining, leveraging advanced mining technologies to maintain high efficiency and profitability [7][32]. - The oil and gas segment has seen continuous growth, with significant contributions from the Bajiao gas field and Malaysian oil fields [7][38]. - The company is actively investing in lithium mining and hydroxide production, with projects in Africa and plans for significant production targets in the coming years [7][44][45].