Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry [1] Core Insights - The stablecoin industry ecosystem is accelerating its construction, with significant opportunities for domestic alternatives. The recent passage of the "Stablecoin Regulation" in Hong Kong is expected to boost the adoption of stablecoins, with major e-commerce platforms like Shopify and retail giants like Amazon and Walmart exploring stablecoin issuance [2][3] - The AI sector is experiencing structural investment opportunities, particularly in domestic alternatives, financial IT, and cross-border payments. The AI sector index saw a 7.6% increase in June, outperforming major indices [2][6] - Huawei's recent developer conference showcased advancements in HarmonyOS and AI cloud services, indicating a strong potential for domestic AI computing infrastructure [2][3] Market Overview - The AI index closed at 9481.88 with a monthly increase of 7.6%, while the computer industry index rose by 7.11% [6] - The AI sector's total market capitalization reached 23666.38 billion, with 84 constituent stocks [8] AI Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the latest developments in data elements and data exchanges, emphasizing the importance of data asset development and high-quality growth in the sector [19][20] - Major AI models are being developed and released, with Huawei announcing the open-sourcing of its Pangu models, which is expected to enhance AI applications across various industries [25] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific segments and companies, including: 1. Domestic computing industry chain: Industrial Fulian, Zhongke Shuguang, etc. 2. IDC service providers and computing leasing: Runze Technology, Guanghuan New Network, etc. 3. Domestic software vendors: China Software, Softcom Power, etc. 4. AI applications: iFlytek, Kingsoft Office, etc. 5. Cloud computing vendors: Kingdee International, Kingsoft Cloud, etc. 6. Data element industry chain companies: Tuolisi, Shensanda A, etc. 7. Stablecoin and RWA: Hengsheng Electronics, Sifang Jichuang, etc. [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the photovoltaic industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need to break the "involution" style competition in the photovoltaic sector, advocating for supply-side reforms driven by policy, industry self-discipline, and corporate production cuts [2]. - It highlights a significant increase in domestic photovoltaic installations, with 197.85 GW added from January to May 2025, representing a 150% year-on-year growth [2]. - The report identifies new technologies, particularly BC (Bifacial Cell) and copper paste, as key drivers for future industry growth and cost reduction [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The solar energy index rose by 4.1%, with notable gains from companies like Daqo New Energy and Tongwei Co., Ltd., which saw increases exceeding 10% [2]. - The report discusses the government's increasing focus on addressing low-price disorderly competition, aiming to enhance product quality and facilitate the exit of outdated production capacity [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes a recovery in polysilicon prices, with the average transaction price for N-type polysilicon rising to 34,700 CNY/ton, a 0.87% increase week-on-week [2]. - It asserts that the main challenge in the photovoltaic industry is supply rather than demand, with expectations for improved supply conditions due to government guidance and industry self-regulation [2]. Technological Advancements - The report forecasts that leading companies will significantly expand their BC production capacity, with Longi Green Energy expected to reach 50 GW by the end of 2025 [2]. - It highlights the trend towards reducing silver usage in photovoltaic cells, with the silver consumption per watt decreasing from 6 mg/W to 0.5 mg/W, driven by advancements in technologies like XBC, TOPCon, and HJT [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong advantages in new technologies, recommending stocks such as Longi Green Energy, Aiko Solar Energy, and JinkoSolar [2]. - It also advises attention to auxiliary material sectors that benefit from policy improvements and have higher safety margins, recommending companies like GCL-Poly Energy and Sungrow Power Supply [2].

中国银河证券|CGS 全景东盟双周报（2025 年第 5 期） : "黄金签证"助力制度型开放实践 首席经济学家：章俊 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 "黄金签证"助力制度型开放实践 2025年7月4日 核心观点 分析师 章俊 首席经济学家 ☎：010-8092 8096 网: zhangjun_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523070003 研究助理 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 全景东盟双周报 刘小逸 网: liuxiaoyi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 田冀霖 网: tianjilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 风险提示 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 随着美国"对等关税"90天暂缓期进入最后倒计时(7月9日),东南亚地区 ● 超 30%的平均加征税率生效在即。区域内国家正采取"多线并进"的应对方 案:在贸易端加速"窗口期"出口冲刺,马来西亚单月对美出口额增长超四成; 在外交层面稳步推进对华经贸合作并密集开展对美游说与协商,争取在暂缓 期内签订关税协议,其中,越 ...

_ 136 _ 10 ___ 2 行业月报 · 公用事业行业 24Q4 行业月报 ·公用事业行业 中国银河证券|CGS 目录 Catalog | 一、 行业要闻 | | --- | | 二、 行业数据 … | | (一) 碳交易市场情况 | | (二） 电力行业相关数据………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 7 | | 三、 太阳能单月装机创新高，火电发电量由降转增 | | 四、 开展新型电力系统建设试点，助力新能源消纳……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………11 | | 五、 环保公用行业表现………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………１2 | | ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The U.S. Senate passed the modified "Big Beautiful Act" with a narrow margin, which will increase the deficit to 7% during Trump's term [2][3][4] - The updated version of the fiscal bill is projected to increase the deficit by $4 trillion over the next ten years, with long-term implications potentially raising it to $5.5 trillion if tax cuts are made permanent [3][4] - The long-term debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise to 126% by 2034, indicating increasing fiscal pressure [4][7] Group 2: Marine Economy and Communication - The Chinese government has prioritized the development of the marine economy, with policies aimed at enhancing marine industries such as marine electronic information and offshore wind power [9][10] - The domestic marine production value is projected to reach 10.54 trillion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 5.9%, indicating significant potential in the marine sector [10] - The global submarine cable market is expected to grow from $21 billion in 2024 to $68 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of approximately 15.8% [10] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Kangtai Biological's PCV13 vaccine has received GMP certification from Turkey, marking a significant step in its overseas expansion [15][16] - The company has established partnerships in over ten countries for the registration and commercialization of various vaccines, with overseas revenue expected to grow significantly [16][18] - Midea Group's revenue for Q1 2025 was 127.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, with expectations of maintaining steady growth despite industry headwinds [21][24] Group 4: Industry Trends and Challenges - The home appliance industry is facing a downturn, but Midea Group is expected to maintain growth due to its competitive advantages and high dividend yield [21][24] - The company is adapting to U.S. tariff policies, which have negatively impacted exports, but it is expected to gradually adjust its global production capacity [22][23] - The industrial business, particularly in HVAC and related fields, is showing strong growth potential, supported by strategic acquisitions [23][24]

Group 1: Strategic Importance of Marine Economy - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the marine economy's role in China's modernization, advocating for high-quality development along a "marine strong" path[5] - The meeting reiterated the importance of the marine economy following previous significant discussions, including the 20th Party Congress and the 2024 Central Economic Work Conference[7] - Five guiding principles were established to drive marine economic development: innovation, efficient collaboration, industrial upgrading, harmony between humans and the sea, and win-win cooperation[9] Group 2: Policy Framework and Focus Areas - Six key focus areas were identified for policy coordination: policy support, technological innovation, strengthening marine industries, planning for marine development, ecological protection, and global cooperation[10] - The marine economy's contribution to China's GDP is significant, with the marine service industry accounting for approximately 60% of the marine production value in 2024, which reached 10.54 trillion yuan, a 5.9% increase year-on-year[14][23] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Opportunities - The global marine economy is characterized by differentiated competition, with countries like the US, Japan, and the EU leading in various sectors such as marine fisheries and renewable energy[16] - China's marine economy shows strong momentum, with the marine second industry accounting for 35% of the marine production value, and the marine engineering equipment manufacturing sector maintaining a global market share for seven consecutive years[23][24] - Investment opportunities are identified in marine technology, renewable energy, marine biology and medicine, and marine cultural tourism, with a focus on deep-sea materials and equipment[27][29] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include inadequate understanding of domestic and international policies and potential shortcomings in policy implementation[30]

Market Performance - On July 3, 2025, the North Exchange 50 index rose by 0.21% to close at 1442.17 points, with a trading volume of 10.53 billion shares and a total transaction value of 239.19 billion yuan[3] - The average daily transaction value for the North Exchange decreased from 340.49 billion yuan last week to 239.19 billion yuan on this day[3] Industry Trends - The leading sectors in terms of growth included light industry manufacturing (+2.8%), electronics (+1.3%), environmental protection (+1.1%), and pharmaceuticals (+1.0%)[3] - The sectors with the largest declines were transportation (-3.1%), non-ferrous metals (-3.1%), petroleum and petrochemicals (-2.8%), and textiles and apparel (-1.8%)[3] Stock Performance - Among the 268 listed companies, 144 saw an increase in stock price, while 120 experienced a decline[3] - The top gainers included Jiahua Technology (+15.49%), Guangxin Technology (+13.12%), and Huayang Racing (+7.80%) while the largest losers were Kelaite (-12.36%), Kunbo Precision (-9.31%), and Xinweiling (-6.09%)[3][10] Valuation Metrics - The overall valuation of the North Exchange was reported at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 51.61 times, which is higher than the P/E ratios of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (52.68 times) and the Growth Enterprise Market (35.93 times)[3] - The electronics sector had the highest average P/E ratio at 208.0 times, followed by computers (144.6 times) and home appliances (121.8 times)[3][11] Risk Factors - Potential risks include lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, intensified market competition, and market volatility[3][14]

Key Insights - The report indicates that the A-share market is expected to experience a seasonal rebound in July, driven by policy and performance factors, with a stable upward trend anticipated [3][2][1] - The focus for July is on three main lines: consumption, technology, and dividends, with growth sectors like technology expected to have good development prospects and investment opportunities [3][2][1] - The construction industry is seeing a recovery in activity, with a business activity index of 52.8% in June, indicating expansion, while fixed asset investment growth is slowing [5][6] - Infrastructure investment remains high, with broad infrastructure investment growth at 10.44% year-on-year for the first five months of the year, although narrow infrastructure investment growth is at 5.6% [6][9] - The real estate sector is under pressure, with a 10.7% year-on-year decline in development investment for the first five months, but policy measures are expected to improve market confidence [7][9] - The floating rate bond market is developing, with a current market size of approximately 495.9 billion yuan, accounting for about 0.3% of the total bond market [13][12] - The banking sector is benefiting from a supportive monetary policy environment, with expectations of continued easing and structural policy tools to support key areas like technology and consumption [20][21][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Midea Group, indicating confidence in the company's ability to sustain growth despite industry challenges [4]. Core Views - Midea Group is expected to maintain steady growth and attractive dividend yields, even as the home appliance industry faces a downturn. The company has demonstrated strong competitive advantages and a commitment to shareholder returns [4][6]. - The report highlights that Midea's revenue and profit growth in Q1 2025 exceeded market expectations, with projected revenue growth of 7-9% and net profit growth of 10-15% for Q2 2025 [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of Midea's business model, particularly in the context of ongoing market adjustments and external pressures such as U.S. tariff policies [4][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, Midea Group reported revenue of 127.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, and a net profit of 12.4 billion yuan, up 38.0% year-on-year [4]. - The forecast for 2024 indicates total revenue of 409.1 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.5%, and a net profit of 38.5 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 14.3% [5]. Market Position - Midea Group's A-share price as of July 1, 2025, was 72.11 yuan, with a market capitalization of 497.9 billion yuan [2]. - The company's A-share price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 12.5x for 2025, which is below its historical average, suggesting a potentially undervalued position [6]. Dividend Policy - Midea Group's dividend payout ratio is expected to reach 69% in 2024, with a projected dividend yield of 5.5% for 2025, making it attractive for income-focused investors [4][10]. Industry Outlook - The home appliance industry is anticipated to experience a gradual decline in growth rates, but Midea is expected to leverage its competitive strengths to continue growing [4]. - The report notes that Midea's industrial business, particularly in HVAC and related sectors, is showing strong growth potential, with significant opportunities in international markets [4][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the characteristics, valuation methods, market status, and positive impacts of floating - rate bonds (FRBs). It points out that although FRBs in China are still a niche product, their development can enrich the bond market and bring benefits to both issuers and investors [3][5]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 What are Floating - Rate Bonds? 3.1.1 Definition of FRBs - FRBs are bonds whose interest rates float regularly with the market, with the formula "interest rate = benchmark rate + fixed spread". They are issued by entities with medium - to - long - term capital needs. The benchmark rates include LPR, DR007, SHIBOR, and one - year fixed - deposit rate, with DR007 and LPR being the main ones in China [3][6]. - Compared with fixed - rate bonds, FRBs have an interest rate adjustment mechanism. They can adjust the issuer's financing cost in different interest rate environments, and have lower interest rate risk and modified duration [7]. - The main benchmark rates for FRBs in China are DR007 (about 41% of the stock), LPR (about 35%), one - year deposit rate (about 6%), and SHIBOR (about 4%) as of June 2025 [8][11]. 3.1.2 Valuation Method of FRBs - Since the future cash flows of FRBs are uncertain, the market uses the present value of the benchmark rate plus or minus points as an approximation of future cash flows for daily valuation. The daily price fluctuation of FRBs is mainly determined by the current benchmark rate and the spread yield [11][12]. 3.1.3 Overview of Overseas FRB Markets - Overseas FRB markets have a larger proportion and scale. Examples include US Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS), which are popular during inflationary periods; US Floating - Rate Notes (FRN), which help investors hedge interest - rate fluctuations; and Hong Kong's Silver Bonds and iBond, which are designed for specific groups and inflation - hedging purposes [15][16][17]. 3.2 Development Stages and Current Situation of FRBs in China 3.2.1 Development Stages of FRBs - China's FRB market started in 1995. There were three periods of issuance scale growth from 1995 - 2000, 2002 - 2011, and 2014 - 2021, with the benchmark rate types constantly enriching. From 2022 - 2024, the issuance scale decreased due to low market interest rates [3]. - The issuance proportion of FRBs in the bond market has been declining. From 2011 - 2021, the average annual issuance scale accounted for 2.25% of the annual bond issuance, while from 2022 to June 2025, the annual average was only 0.25% [19]. - The benchmark rates for FRBs have evolved through four stages, and recently, newly - issued FRBs mainly use DR007 and 1Y LPR as benchmarks [23]. 3.2.2 Current Situation of the FRB Market - As of June 2025, the stock scale of China's FRB market is 4959 billion yuan, accounting for about 0.3% of the total bond market. Policy - based financial bonds linked to DR007 and 1 - year LPR are the main type, accounting for 78% of the FRB market, with a scale of 3890 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities account for 14% with a scale of 715 billion yuan [24]. - In terms of maturity, the remaining maturity of China's FRBs is mainly concentrated in 1 - 3 years, accounting for 61% of the market, with a scale of 3046 billion yuan. Medium - and long - term bonds with a remaining maturity of over 7 years account for only 7% of the market [27]. 3.3 Positive Impacts of FRB Issuance - For the bond market, the development of the FRB market meets the national requirement of "accelerating the development of a multi - tiered bond market", enriches market tools, and enhances market depth [30]. - For issuers, especially in a rate - cut cycle, issuing FRBs, especially credit FRBs, can reduce financing costs and avoid interest - rate risks. FRBs also help SMEs expand financing channels and reduce the risk premium required by investors for low - credit - rated enterprises [30][31]. - For investors, FRBs are effective tools to hedge against rising interest rates. They can buffer the decline in bond prices when interest rates rise. Additionally, FRBs can promote inclusive finance, such as through green bonds and Hong Kong's Silver Bonds [31].