Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 10% compared to the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The company is continuously optimizing its traditional core business layout, adjusting product structure, and enhancing channel efficiency. The retail large store business is steadily expanding, and the office direct sales business is deepening, which is expected to sustain growth in the future [7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.73, 1.95, and 2.19 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17X, 15X, and 14X [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024A: 24,228.25 million yuan - 2025E: 27,416.61 million yuan (growth of 13.16%) - 2026E: 30,666.37 million yuan (growth of 11.85%) - 2027E: 34,017.35 million yuan (growth of 10.93%) [7][9] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024A: 1,395.84 million yuan - 2025E: 1,599.00 million yuan (growth of 14.55%) - 2026E: 1,805.23 million yuan (growth of 12.90%) - 2027E: 2,024.20 million yuan (growth of 12.13%) [7][9] - **Gross Margin**: - 2024A: 18.90% - 2025E: 18.86% - 2026E: 18.67% - 2027E: 18.43% [7][9] - **Key Financial Ratios**: - Return on Equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 15.67% in 2024A to 18.40% in 2027E [9]. - The company's debt-to-equity ratio is expected to rise from 43.11% in 2024A to 45.23% in 2027E [9]. Market Data - The company's stock code is 603899.SH, with a closing price of 30.13 yuan and a market capitalization of 27.835 billion yuan as of March 26, 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China General Nuclear Power Corporation (003816.SZ) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 86.804 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.814 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.8% [3] - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming commissioning of the Huizhou Unit 1, which is anticipated to support performance in 2025 [3] - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 10.440 billion yuan, 11.126 billion yuan, and 12.259 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.09x, 16.98x, and 15.41x [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 24.534 billion yuan, up 8.1% year-on-year, but the net profit decreased by 19.0% to 830 million yuan [3] - The average on-grid electricity price for 2024 was 0.416 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 1.57% year-on-year [3] - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 was 38.016 billion yuan, an increase of 14.78% year-on-year [3] Operational Highlights - The total electricity generation for 2024 was 1,908.07 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.08%, primarily due to the commissioning of the Fangchenggang Unit 4 and the resumption of operations at Taishan Unit 1 [3] - The company plans to conduct 19 refueling overhauls in 2025, including two ten-year overhauls and one first-time overhaul [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to slightly decline to 86.782 billion yuan in 2025, followed by growth to 92.257 billion yuan in 2026 and 99.473 billion yuan in 2027 [4][6] - The gross margin is expected to decrease to 31.45% in 2025, with a gradual recovery to 31.80% by 2027 [6]

Profit Analysis - In January-February 2025, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 910.99 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% compared to the previous value of -3.3%[1] - Operating revenue increased by 2.8% year-on-year, up from the previous value of 2.1%[1] - Industrial added value grew by 5.9% year-on-year, driven by exports, new consumption policies, and AI[2] Price and Cost Dynamics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, a slight improvement from -2.3%[2] - The operating profit margin was 4.53%, down by 0.17 percentage points from the previous value of 0.37 percentage points[2] - The cost per CNY 100 of operating revenue was CNY 85.11, an increase of CNY 0.11 year-on-year[2] Inventory and Receivables - Finished goods inventory reached CNY 6.37 trillion, growing by 4.2% year-on-year, up from 3.3%[2] - Accounts receivable increased by 9.2% year-on-year, with an average collection period of 74.9 days, up by 4.5 days[2] Sector Performance - Equipment manufacturing saw significant growth, with railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace increasing by 88.8% and automotive manufacturing by 11.7%[2] - Consumer manufacturing sectors, such as computer electronics and electrical machinery, experienced profit declines of 9.4% and 2.4% respectively[2] Future Outlook - Industrial profit recovery faces challenges, including low production-sales ratios and insufficient final demand, particularly in export-oriented sectors[2] - The effectiveness of supply-side reforms and the implementation of demand policies remain uncertain[2]

2025 年 3 月 27 日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 布油五连涨,原油创本月内新高, 每日晨报 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 电子:行业温和复苏,关注 AI 与终端硬件融合。2025年第一季度,AI 终端 创新呈现高性能计算、轻量化设计、场景多元化三大特点。CES 2025 成为技 术落地的核心舞台,推动 AI 从云端向端侧渗透,同时加速具身智能、自动驾 驶等领域的商业化进程。未来,AI 与终端硬件的深度融合将重塑消费电子生 态,进一步拓展人机协作的边界。 比亚迪 (002594):24年业绩表现靓丽,25年有望迎量、价、利齐升。技术 ● 实力提升+高端化进度加速+出口景气度延续三轮驱动,2025年公司有望迎来 量、价、利齐升：我们认为 2025年公司业绩将迎来三重驱动："智驾平权" &超级快充技术提升全系产品综合竞争力;高端新品汉 L、唐 L、腾势 N9 上 市快速丰富高 ...

⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ | 市场数据 | 2025-3-26 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 603899.SH | | A 股收盘价(元) | 30.13 | | 上证指数 | 3,368.70 | | 总股本(万股) | 92,383 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 92,383 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 278.35 | -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2024-03 2024-04 2024-05 2024-06 2024-07 2024-08 2024-09 2024-10 2024-11 2024-12 2025-01 2025-02 晨光股份 沪深300 公司点评报告 · 轻工行业 国银河证券|CGS 金融客户方面,新入围华夏银行、泰康保险和阳光保险等项目,进一步扩大在 金融领域的优势。 MRO 工业品方面,对已合作项目做到持续深挖,在国家电投、三峡集团、中 国有色和电气装备等多个项目上拓宽新的业务边界。 主要财务指标预测 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 北证50 沪深300 ⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫ 国银河证券|CGS 北交所日报 资料来源：iFinD,中国银河证券研究院 图2：北证与 A 股各行业当日涨跌幅（算数平均/%/ 2025.03.26) ■A股算数平均涨跌幅 ■北交所算数平均涨跌幅 5 4 3 2 ** l 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 IC PH: July Cho 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 图1:北证成交额与换手率情况(截至2025.03.26) ■ 成交金额（合计/亿元) -换手率（算数平均/%） 600 16.0 14.0 500 12.0 400 10.0 300 8.0 6.0 200 4.0 100 2.0 0 0.0 02-18 02-20 02-24 02-26 02-28 03-04 03-12 03-14 02-10 02-14 03-06 03-10 )3-26 02-06 02-12 03-18 01-2 河证券|CGS 北交所日报 表1：涨幅前十股票的市场数据（2025.03.26/财务数 ...

请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 全景东盟月报 国银河证券|CGS 东风风行 2025 年第 1 期: CAFTA3.0 有望进一步深化中国东盟战略关系 首席经济学家：章俊 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 CAFTA3.0 有望进一步深化中国东盟战略关系 核心观点 2025 年《政府工作报告》提出深化多双边和区域经济合作,加快推动签署中 国-东盟自贸区 3.0 版升级协定(CAFTA 3.0),有助于促进区域协同高质量发 展。同时,中国企业通过投资、技术合作等方式,助力东盟产业升级与经济多 元化,产生了积极的外溢效应和示范效应。 2025年3月26日 分析师 章俊 首席经济学家 ☎：010-8092 8096 网: zhangjun_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523070003 研究助理 刘小逸 风险提示 1. 政策理解不到位的风险 2. 国内政策落实不及预期的风险 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 ● 中国-东盟自贸区 3.0升级,战略伙伴关系进一步深化:东盟长期以来是中国对外贸 易的重要伙伴。2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for BYD (stock code: 002594.SZ) [1][6]. Core Views - BYD's performance in 2024 was strong, with a revenue of 777.10 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 40.25 billion yuan, up 34.00% year-on-year [3][5]. - The company is expected to see simultaneous growth in volume, price, and profit in 2025, driven by advancements in technology, new high-end product launches, and continued expansion in overseas markets [4][6]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, BYD achieved a total vehicle sales volume of 4.27 million units, a year-on-year increase of 41.26%, with a single vehicle average price of 144,500 yuan, down 9.6% year-on-year [3][4]. - The gross margin for the automotive business improved to 22.31%, a year-on-year increase of 1.29 percentage points, primarily due to the growth in export sales and the increase in high-end brand sales [3][4]. - R&D expenses rose by 34.42% to 53.20 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting the company's commitment to enhancing its technological capabilities [3][4]. Financial Forecast Summary - For 2025, BYD is projected to achieve revenues of 991.21 billion yuan and a net profit of 54.56 billion yuan, with an EPS of 17.95 yuan [5][6]. - The revenue growth rate is expected to be 27.55%, with a net profit growth rate of 35.54% [5][8]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve to 20.15% in 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The industry is experiencing a mild recovery, with a focus on the integration of AI and terminal hardware. The first quarter of 2025 has seen innovations in AI terminals characterized by high-performance computing, lightweight design, and diverse applications. The CES 2025 has become a core stage for technology implementation, promoting the penetration of AI from the cloud to the edge, and accelerating the commercialization of embodied intelligence and autonomous driving [1][26] Industry Data Tracking - **Smartphones**: In 2024, global smartphone shipments are expected to reach approximately 1.22 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 7%, ending a two-year decline, driven by a recovery in demand from emerging markets and policy incentives [3] - **PCs**: Global PC shipments are projected to show a mild recovery in 2024, with total shipments of 256 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [3][9] - **Tablets**: Total tablet shipments in 2024 are expected to reach 147.6 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, indicating a robust recovery compared to 2023 [3][10] - **Wearable Devices**: Global shipments of wearable devices are anticipated to reach 193 million units in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 4%, continuing a recovery trend for two consecutive years [3] - **TWS Earbuds**: In 2024, global TWS earbud shipments are expected to reach 330 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13%, ending a previous slowdown in growth [3][11] - **AI Glasses**: Global sales of AI smart glasses are projected to reach 1.52 million units in 2024, a staggering year-on-year growth of 533%, with RayBan Meta accounting for 1.42 million units sold [3][13] Industry News - **Policy Support**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have proposed subsidies for consumers purchasing smartphones, tablets, and smartwatches, providing 15% of the product price as a subsidy, capped at 500 yuan per item [3][21] - **Product Launches**: The first quarter of 2025 has seen the launch of several new products in the consumer electronics sector driven by AI technology, including smart glasses, AI PCs, and AI headphones [3] Sector Tracking - **Recent Performance**: Over the past month, the consumer electronics index has underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.96 percentage points, while outperforming the electronics index by 0.04 percentage points. The consumer electronics index has seen a decline of 1.81%, while the electronics index has decreased by 1.85%, and the CSI 300 index has increased by 1.15% [3][24] - **Annual Performance**: Over the past year, the consumer electronics index has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 15.06 percentage points but underperformed the electronics index by 8.05 percentage points, with the consumer electronics index showing a growth of 26.06% [3][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are innovating in AI terminal technology, including Crystal Optoelectronics, Tengjing Technology, Weir Shares, Yidao Information, Tianjian Shares, Jiahe Intelligent, Goer Technology, Lingyi Zhi Zao, and Changying Precision [1][26]

Market Overview - The STAR Market index fell by 3.49% last week, underperforming compared to the ChiNext and Shanghai-Shenzhen main boards[5] - The average daily trading volume decreased to approximately CNY 1,094.89 billion, down from CNY 1,286.15 billion the previous week[5] - As of March 21, 2025, there are 585 listed companies on the STAR Market with a total market capitalization of CNY 79,236.57 billion[5] Valuation Metrics - The overall PE (TTM) of the STAR Market is approximately 49.70, which is higher than other major boards[5] - The PE of the STAR 50 index is about 55.12, indicating a valuation premium over the overall STAR Market[5] - The electronic industry has the highest average PE at 88.54, while the household appliances sector has the lowest at 15.35[5] Sector Performance - The black metal industry saw the largest weekly gain of +13.34%, while the computer industry experienced the largest decline of -6.46%[5] - Notable individual stock performances include Yunlu Co. (+26.11%) and Gai Lun Electronics (+24.96%), while Xun Jie Xing saw a significant drop of -16.76%[5] NVIDIA's AI Developments - NVIDIA announced the next-generation AI chip Rubin and the AI supercomputer DGX Station at the GTC 2025 conference[5] - The Rubin chip will have a bandwidth of 75TB and a performance that is 3.3 times greater than the previous generation, set to launch in the second half of 2026[5] - The DGX Station will feature a GB300 super chip with an AI computing power of 20,000 TFLOPS, aimed at laboratory and enterprise use[5] Investment Trends - The STAR Market thematic funds underperformed compared to index funds, with the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices declining by -3.72% and -4.41% respectively[5] - The overall trading activity in the STAR Market has decreased, with the average turnover rate at 12.83%, lower than other major boards[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected technological development, supply chain disruptions, and intensified industry competition[5]