Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Jinhe Biological (stock code: 002688.SZ) [2][44]. Core Views - Jinhe Biological is a leading enterprise in the veterinary antibiotic sector, focusing on a dual-driven strategy of chemical drugs and vaccines. The company has expanded its business boundaries from veterinary raw materials to animal vaccines and environmental technology, forming a new business pattern with organic interaction among various segments [4][6][11]. - The company achieved revenue of 2.174 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 2.42%, and 1.065 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, growing by 3.22% year-on-year [4][7]. - The veterinary chemical drug business remains the largest revenue contributor, while the vaccine business is expected to grow significantly as product penetration increases [44]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Jinhe Biological was established in 1988 and has become a global leader in animal health. The company went public in 2012 and has since expanded into animal vaccines and environmental technology, creating a comprehensive animal health ecosystem [6][8]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 2.174 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 2.289 billion yuan in 2024, representing a growth rate of 5.30% [5][45]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 864.6 million yuan in 2023 to 1.8691 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 45.47% [5][44]. Business Segments - The veterinary chemical drug segment generated 1.016 billion yuan in revenue in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 3.27%, maintaining stable growth [11][24]. - The veterinary biological products segment achieved revenue of 335 million yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 1.48% [35]. Growth Drivers - The company is enhancing its production capacity, with a new project expected to add 60,000 tons of chemical drug capacity by October 2024, increasing total production capacity to 115,000 tons [24][29]. - Jinhe Biological is actively expanding its pet business, establishing a subsidiary in Shanghai in 2024, with several products already on the market and more in development [19][24]. Research and Development - The company has invested in R&D, with 74 million yuan spent in 2023, focusing on innovation and product quality improvement [19][24]. - Jinhe Biological has a rich pipeline of over 20 vaccine products in development, including vaccines for pigs and pets, which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [40][42].

· 轻工行业 维持评级 AI+玩具,中国玩具的全球竞争力将明显提升:1) 2023-2024年伴随 AI 技 术逐步成熟，市场中 AI+玩具的结合越来越普遍。据 Gartner 预测, 2025 年 年 AI 驱动的玩具和娱乐设备将占据全球玩具市场 15%以上份额。一方面,购 物平台中玩具品类智能化能力相较十年前显著提升,千元以内价格带虽不能 实现具身智能,但语音陪伴、益智对话等功能的 AI 玩具已占据一定市场份额, 实丰文化"AI 魔法星"、奥飞娱乐"AI 喜羊羊"等产品销量表现较优。另一 方面,我们观察到2024年特斯拉/乐森等公司相继推出的机器人玩具,由于具 身智能表现优异,在市场上二手价格都远超发售价格。2) AI+玩具将突出玩 具的制造能力、AI 技术, 由于产品性能的提升,功能的增加,将以全新的产 品形态影响全球玩具市场,中国玩具的新兴品牌市场机会增多。例如在全球彩 电市场份额持续快速提升的 TCL 电子 H,在 2025 年 CES 展上也发布了自己 的智能家居陪伴机器人。TCL 是玩具的新进入者,但在 AI 和制造方面强于玩 具企业,且具有很强的全球化运营能力,在 AI 玩具时代有机会进入市场 ...

Group 1: Economic Cooperation and Trade - The CAFTA 3.0 upgrade is expected to deepen the strategic partnership between China and ASEAN, promoting high-quality regional development[4] - In February 2025, China and ASEAN are anticipated to complete legal reviews and domestic procedures for signing the CAFTA 3.0 upgrade protocol[7] - ASEAN's economic growth is showing divergence, with Singapore's GDP growth at 4.4% in 2024, Malaysia at 5.1%, and Thailand underperforming at 2.5%[7][17][21] Group 2: Market Trends and Policies - Southeast Asian currencies stabilized in February 2025, with some showing appreciation, while stock markets exhibited mixed performance[23] - Indonesia's GDP reached 22,138.96 trillion IDR in 2024, with a per capita GDP of approximately 4,960.3 USD[20] - Malaysia's GDP growth in 2024 was 5.1%, significantly higher than the 3.6% growth in 2023, driven by a 12% increase in investments[19] Group 3: Chinese Enterprises in ASEAN - Chinese companies are accelerating integration into ASEAN supply chains, contributing to industrial upgrades and economic diversification[7] - Notable investments include battery production bases by companies like Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. in Indonesia, aligning with local policies[31] - The cultural consumption sector is thriving, with Pop Mart's revenue in Southeast Asia increasing by 478% in the first half of 2024[30] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include potential misunderstandings of policies, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and international policy challenges[33]

Market Performance - The average daily change for the North Exchange (北证) was significantly positive, with a peak increase of 23.62% for the top-performing stock, Morning Light Cable (晨光电缆) on March 26, 2025[8] - The North Exchange's trading volume reached a total of 600 billion CNY, with an average turnover rate of 16% as of March 26, 2025[7] - The average daily change for the A-share market (沪深300) was also positive, but specific percentage values were not provided in the report[2] Stock Performance - The top ten stocks by increase on March 26, 2025, had market capitalizations ranging from 9.77 billion CNY to 82.22 billion CNY, with the highest PE ratio being 2,134.56 for Jilin Carbon Valley (吉林碳谷)[8][9] - Conversely, the top ten stocks by decrease included a significant drop of 24.86% for Guangdao Digital (广道数字), with a market cap of 9.58 billion CNY[9] Valuation Trends - The report indicates a valuation trend for the North Exchange compared to the Science and Technology Innovation Board (科创板) and the Growth Enterprise Market (创业板), with specific valuation multiples not detailed[10][11] - The PE ratios across various industries on the North Exchange were analyzed, showing a diverse range of valuations[12] Risks and Considerations - The report highlights several risks, including lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, intensified market competition, and market volatility[14]

Investment Rating - Maintain rating [1] Core Viewpoints - The integration of AI technology with toys is expected to enhance China's global competitiveness in the toy industry, with AI-driven toys projected to capture over 15% of the global toy market by 2025 according to Gartner [3] - The market for blind box toys is rapidly expanding, with China's blind box market reaching 17.25 billion yuan in 2023 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.2% from 2019 to 2023 [3][7] - The "谷子" (goods) economy is anticipated to grow significantly, with a market size projected to reach 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 41% [12][14] Summary by Sections Section 1:潮玩 (Trendy Toys) - The Z generation is becoming the main consumer force in China, accounting for 18.6% of the total population and 40% of total consumption, with a significant portion of spending directed towards trendy toys [7] - Trendy toys exhibit strong repurchase attributes, with approximately 70% of consumers purchasing specific blind box toys three times or more, and a reported repurchase rate of 43.9% for members of leading brands like 泡泡玛特 (Pop Mart) [7][9] Section 2:谷子 (Goods) - The "谷子" economy is rapidly growing, with a projected market size of 1.689 trillion yuan in 2024 and an expected increase to 3.089 trillion yuan by 2029, indicating a CAGR of 12.8% [12][14] - The opening of new "谷子" stores is driving growth, with significant increases in store numbers across various brands [16][17] Section 3: AI+玩具 (AI Toys) - The market for AI toys is expanding, with notable products like 乐森's (Robosen) transforming toys achieving significant sales and market interest, indicating a promising future for AI integration in the toy sector [21][27] - Companies like 特斯拉 (Tesla) are also entering the market with robot action figures, which sold out quickly, demonstrating the high demand for AI-driven toys [27][29] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies benefiting from the growth in trendy toys, "谷子," and AI toys, specifically highlighting 泡泡玛特, 布鲁可, 广博股份, 实丰文化, 名创优品, and TCL Electronics as key players to watch [3]

Macro Insights - The report indicates that the liquidity tightness has passed its peak, but substantial easing may not occur until the second quarter of 2025, with current monetary policy signals being relatively weak [3][4]. - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.7% and 1.85% in the short term, with a low probability of annual-level adjustments unless a strong economic recovery occurs [5]. Fiscal Analysis - In January-February 2025, fiscal revenue growth showed significant divergence, with tax revenue declining by 3.9%, which is considerably lower than the initial budget targets [7][8]. - The strong fiscal expenditure, with a growth rate that outpaces revenue growth, indicates a strong commitment to stabilizing economic growth [7][14]. Machinery Sector - The machinery sector is experiencing a positive trend, with a notable increase in excavator sales, which rose by 52.8% year-on-year in February 2025 [18]. - The report suggests focusing on infrastructure and real estate chains driven by policy support, as well as cyclical general equipment related to domestic demand recovery [20]. Beverage Industry - The high-end liquor market is stabilizing due to rational inventory control by major brands, with a notable rebound in demand expected during festive seasons [22][23]. - The report highlights a shift in consumer demand towards mid-range liquor, driven by increased wedding celebrations and strategic adjustments by companies to focus on regional markets [22][24]. Electronics Sector - The smart glasses market is rapidly growing, with AI functionality becoming a core competitive advantage, as evidenced by Xiaomi's recent launch of its new smart audio glasses [28][30]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in the global smart glasses market, projecting a 139.2% year-on-year growth in 2025, driven by technological advancements and market demand [30][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting its configuration value amidst supportive macroeconomic policies [29]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to benefit from a continuation of moderately loose monetary policy, which aims to lower the overall financing costs in society. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for timely adjustments in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates based on economic conditions [7][8]. - Financial supply-side reforms are deepening, with a focus on optimizing structural monetary policy tools for key sectors such as technology and consumption. This includes enhancing support for small and medium-sized enterprises and improving the financing environment for the real estate market [8][9]. - The PBOC plans to introduce specific financial support measures to boost consumption, which will likely lead to increased credit supply in consumer-related sectors and lower financing costs for consumers and businesses [9][10]. Summary by Sections Latest Research Insights - The PBOC's first-quarter monetary policy meeting highlighted the need for a continued loose monetary stance to guide down the comprehensive financing costs in society. The meeting also indicated a potential for further reserve requirement ratio cuts in the first half of the year [7][8]. Weekly Market Performance - The banking sector outperformed the market, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index declining by 2.29%, while the banking sector only fell by 0.18%. Notable individual bank performances included Chongqing Bank (+8.62%) and Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank (+3.36%) [5][11]. Valuation of the Sector and Listed Companies - As of March 21, 2025, the banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 0.65, indicating a 40.99% discount compared to the overall A-share market's PB ratio of 1.61. The sector's dividend yield is 6.49%, ranking second among all industries [21][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the banking sector will benefit from increased credit supply and improved asset quality due to supportive macroeconomic factors. Specific stock recommendations include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), China Construction Bank (601939), Postal Savings Bank of China (601658), Jiangsu Bank (600919), and Changshu Bank (601128) [29][30].

Macro Insights - The report indicates that the bond market is unlikely to experience significant annual adjustments, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.7% and 1.85% in the short term, unless a strong economic recovery occurs in China [5] - The report highlights three narratives that may be tested in 2025: the potential for special bond issuance to exceed expectations, better-than-expected consumer recovery driven by policy stimulus, and breakthroughs in Deepseek technology leading to a new round of capital expenditure [5] - The analysis of fiscal data for January-February 2025 reveals a significant divergence in revenue growth, particularly a -3.9% decline in tax revenue, contrasting with strong fiscal expenditure growth, indicating a strong desire for fiscal stability [7][8] Mechanical Industry - The mechanical equipment index rose by 5.46%, with excavator sales in February 2025 exceeding expectations, showing a 52.8% year-on-year increase [18] - The report suggests focusing on the infrastructure and real estate chain driven by policy support, recommending investments in engineering machinery and urban rail signaling systems [20] - The development of humanoid robots is highlighted, with government support for AI and robotics, indicating potential investment opportunities in this sector [19] Food and Beverage Industry - The report notes that high-end liquor companies have maintained stable pricing due to rational inventory control, with a rebound in demand expected for lower-priced liquor segments during holiday seasons [22][23] - The feedback from the spring sugar and liquor fair indicates a shift in operational strategies among mid-tier liquor companies, focusing on regional market penetration and product diversification [23][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of direct control over terminal sales for liquor manufacturers, with companies increasing resources for consumer engagement to boost sales performance [24] Electronics Industry - The launch of Xiaomi's new smart audio glasses marks a significant advancement in the smart eyewear market, with a focus on AI integration as a core competitive advantage [28][30] - The report predicts rapid growth in the smart eyewear market, with a projected 113.8% year-on-year increase in shipments in China for 2025, driven by the integration of AI functionalities [30][31] - The report suggests monitoring companies within the AR and AI eyewear supply chain as investment opportunities [31]

Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has shifted to a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price level bidding for Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations, marking a departure from its previous policy rate identity[3] - The MLF net injection of CNY 63 billion this month signifies a transition from net withdrawal to net injection, indicating a crucial policy signal for maintaining market liquidity[4] - The strength of the monetary easing signal is ranked as follows: open market operations buying government bonds > reserve requirement ratio cuts > MLF net injection[4] Market Conditions - Liquidity has passed its most tense moments, but substantial easing is expected to arrive in Q2 2025[7] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.7% and 1.85% in the short term, with a low probability of annual-level adjustments unless a strong economic recovery occurs[29] - The nominal GDP growth rate for China in 2025 is forecasted at 4.9%, with CPI and PPI expected to rise modestly to 0.9% and -0.2% respectively by year-end[40] Economic Narratives - Three narratives are anticipated to be tested in 2025: 1. The scale and effectiveness of special bonds for land reserves exceed expectations, leading to a strong rebound in real estate[33] 2. Policy stimuli drive consumer recovery better than expected, although consumer willingness remains a slow variable[34] 3. Breakthroughs in Deepseek technology spur a new round of capital expenditure, boosting economic growth[34] Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential misinterpretation of policies, unexpected central bank actions, and government bond issuance falling short of expectations[48] - The adjustment risks in the bond market have not been eliminated, and a shift in monetary policy priorities or market risk preferences is necessary for risk alleviation[43]

Market Performance - The average turnover rate for the North Exchange reached 16.0% as of March 25, 2025[7] - The average daily trading volume for the North Exchange was approximately 600 billion CNY[7] - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for companies listed on the North Exchange varies significantly by industry, with some sectors showing PE ratios above 90[12] Stock Performance - The top-performing stock, 常辅股份, saw a daily increase of 29.97% with a market capitalization of 17.64 billion CNY[8] - The worst-performing stock, 克莱特, experienced a decline of 14.39% with a market capitalization of 38.89 billion CNY[9] - The average daily price change for the North Exchange was 14% compared to the A-share market's average of 10%[6] Risks and Considerations - There are risks associated with lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, and increased market competition[15] - Market volatility remains a significant concern for investors, impacting overall market sentiment and investment strategies[15]