Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication industry [9] Core Insights - The communication sector saw a 4.80% increase in the 23rd week of 2025, ranking first among major industries in the Yangtze River region; year-to-date, the sector is up 1.88%, ranking 16th [2][4] - Broadcom's FY25Q2 AI chip revenue reached approximately $4.4 billion, a 46% year-on-year increase, marking a historical high; demand for inference continues to grow [5] - Major tech companies are accelerating investments in AI infrastructure and applications, driving demand for inference and terminal computing power [6] - The communication sector is benefiting from the global acceleration of AI infrastructure and explosive demand for inference, with low valuations offering high cost-performance ratios [2][5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 23rd week of 2025, the communication sector increased by 4.80%, leading the Yangtze River region; since the beginning of the year, it has risen by 1.88% [2][4] - Among companies with a market capitalization above 8 billion, the top three gainers this week were Taicheng Light (+30.3%), 263 (+24.4%), and Cambridge Technology (+23.7%); the top three losers were Ruijie Networks (-21.9%), Canqin Technology (-5.3%), and Haige Communication (-5.2%) [4] Company Performance - Broadcom's FY25Q2 revenue reached $15 billion, a 20.2% year-on-year increase, with net profit of $4.97 billion, up 134.1% [5] - Broadcom's AI-related chip revenue reached approximately $4.4 billion, a 46% year-on-year increase, contributing to a 17% growth in the semiconductor business [5] - The company has begun shipping its next-generation data center switch chip, Tomahawk 6, which significantly enhances AI workload network throughput [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on operators such as China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom; for optical modules, it suggests Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication [7] - For domestic computing, it highlights Fenghuo Communication, Huafeng Technology, and ZTE; for IoT, it recommends Heertai, Tuobang, and Meige Intelligent [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound in coking coal futures is attributed to rumors of increased resource taxes in Mongolia, heightened expectations of supply contraction, and technical corrections following previous declines. However, the overall supply-demand situation for coking coal has not materially improved, indicating that the current rebound may be temporary and driven by market sentiment [2][7] - Short-term fluctuations in coking coal futures may still have room for oscillation and rebound, but medium-term demand remains under pressure due to seasonal factors. Long-term focus should be on demand policies and the rebalancing of coking coal supply and demand [2][7] Summary by Sections Weekly Tracking Summary - The coal index (Yangtze) decreased by 0.35%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.23 percentage points. The thermal coal market price as of June 6 was 609 RMB/ton, down by 2 RMB/ton week-on-week. The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port remained stable at 1270 RMB/ton [6][20] - Coking coal futures saw a week-on-week increase of 7.2% to 779 RMB/ton, driven by supply contraction expectations and technical corrections [2][7] Coking Coal Supply and Demand - As of June 5, the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 485.4 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 7.5%. The total coal inventory was 118.26 million tons, up by 1.0% week-on-week [21][38] - The supply side showed a slight decrease in production capacity utilization in the "Three West" regions, indicating potential supply constraints [21][22] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks for marginal allocation include: 1. Long-term stable profit leaders: China Coal Energy (A+H), China Shenhua (A+H), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry 2. Transition growth: Electric Power Investment Energy, New Hope Energy 3. Elastic growth targets: Yanzhou Coal Mining (A+H), Huayang Co., Jin控煤业 4. Coking coal: Shanxi Coking Coal, Huaibei Mining, Pingmei Shenma Group [8]

Employment Data Summary - In May 2025, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the forecast of 126,000, while the previous month's figure was revised down to 147,000[4] - The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, with a slight increase of 0.06 percentage points month-over-month[6] - Job growth in the goods sector declined, with mining, construction, and manufacturing losing 3,000, 3,000, and 13,000 jobs respectively, while the service sector added 145,000 jobs[6] Wage and Inflation Insights - Private sector hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, and year-over-year growth remained at 3.9%, above the forecast of 3.7%[6] - Core service inflation pressures are rising, indicating potential inflation risks in the economy[27] Federal Reserve Outlook - The resilience in employment data suggests that the Federal Reserve can afford to maintain its current monetary policy stance without immediate rate cuts[6] - Market expectations indicate a low probability of interest rate cuts in June 2025, with the market pricing in a 99.9% chance of no rate change[26] Economic Risks - There is a risk of inflation exceeding expectations, particularly due to the impact of tariffs and the potential for a rebound in inflation rates, which could complicate future monetary policy decisions[27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The short - end interest rates in the bond market may open a downward space. The yield of 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit is expected to decline to around 1.6%, and the yield of 1 - year treasury bonds is expected to decline to 1.3%. The full decline of short - end interest rates will bring a downward space for long - end interest rates. The bond market may first experience a bullish steepening and then a bullish flattening. The strategy is to first use the "bullet" strategy and then the "dumbbell" strategy. If the central bank restarts the operation of buying and selling treasury bonds, it will directly benefit the bond market, especially short - end varieties. Even without considering the central bank's purchase of treasury bonds through primary dealers, large banks also have the motivation to buy short - term bonds. After the peak maturity period of inter - bank certificates of deposit in June, the yield is expected to decline, and the yields of corresponding treasury bonds and credit bonds will also decline [2][7][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Large Banks Buying Short - Term Bonds, Short - End Market Expected to Start - If the central bank restarts the operation of buying and selling treasury bonds, it will directly benefit the bond market, especially short - end varieties. The form may be similar to that in the fourth quarter of 2024, mainly manifested as the purchase of short - duration treasury bonds rather than "buying short and selling long" [5][13]. - Even without considering the central bank's purchase of treasury bonds through primary dealers, large banks have the motivation to buy short - term bonds: 1) Since this year, long - term bond trading has been difficult and the profit - making effect has been weak, so large banks have the motivation to adjust their strategies and buy short - term bonds. 2) Since this year, the average issuance term of government bonds has been higher than in previous years. After taking on more long - duration assets, large banks also have the motivation to buy short - term treasury bonds to balance the duration of the bond investment portfolio. 3) After the reduction of the listed deposit rate in mid - and late May, there is a possibility of "deposit transfer" in banks. This part of the funds mainly flows back to the banking system through non - banks' allocation of inter - bank certificates of deposit and inter - bank current deposits, which may bring pressure on the shortening of the liability duration of banks. Therefore, large banks also have the demand to buy short - duration treasury bonds to balance the asset - liability duration [5][17]. 2. Bank Liability Pressure is Controllable, and the Yield of Certificates of Deposit is Expected to Continue to Decline - The reduction of bank deposit rates theoretically has a negative impact on certificates of deposit and is beneficial to short - duration treasury bonds and credit bonds. Considering the uncertain recovery of real - economy financing and the central bank's recent care attitude, after the peak maturity period of inter - bank certificates of deposit in June, the yield is expected to decline to around 1.6%, and the yields of corresponding treasury bonds and credit bonds will also decline [6][21]. - The reduction of deposit rates and the financial disintermediation after the rectification of "manual interest compensation" have similarities and differences. The reduction of the listed deposit rate is a normal process of interest rate marketization transmission. Due to the stickiness of general deposits, the "deposit transfer" caused by the reduction of the listed deposit rate will be slower than that caused by the rectification of manual interest compensation. The final influencing factors of the price of inter - bank certificates of deposit are the central bank's liquidity injection and the consumption of banks' excess reserves by real - economy financing. Currently, the central bank has shown its care attitude towards liquidity, and the recovery of real - economy financing is still slow. It is currently judged that 1.7% is basically the upper limit of the yield of 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit, and it is expected to decline to 1.6% after the maturity pressure in June [6][22]. 3. Short - End Interest Rates Decline First, Then Driving Long - End Interest Rates Down - The short - end interest rates may decline first, and then open a downward space for the long - end. It is expected that the bond market may first experience a bullish steepening and then a bullish flattening. The yield of 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit is expected to decline to around 1.6%, and the yield of 1 - year treasury bonds is expected to decline to around 1.3%. If the central bank further reduces the funds price center, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds is expected to decline to around 1.6%, and the yield of 30 - year treasury bonds is expected to decline to around 1.8%. The strategy is to first use the "bullet" strategy and then the "dumbbell" strategy [7][28].

[Table_Title] 递推法下机构久期全解析 固定收益丨深度报告 ——走在债市曲线之前系列（四） %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 基于优化后的递推法，本文构建了六类金融机构久期测算体系，该方法相较于传统重仓加权法 和回归法在普适性、更新频率及敏感性方面更具优势，能够有效跟踪机构久期变化。研究发现 各机构久期分化显著，久期排序为：保险>券商自营>农商行>债基>理财>货基，久期分化背后 反映的是各机构配债思路和风格的显著区别。部分机构久期的变动与收益率走势密切相关，基 金和券商自营久期在提前 2 期时与 10Y 国债收益率的相关性最强，具有一定前瞻性，我们据此 构建了 10Y 国债择时策略，回测表明发出买入信号后 3 日的胜率达 62.87%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% %% research.955 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Lenovo Group is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - Lenovo Group reported FY2025 revenue of $69.077 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.48%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $1.384 billion, up 37.01% year-on-year. The gross margin was 16.07%, down 1.17 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 2.00%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points [2][5] - In Q4 FY2025, Lenovo achieved revenue of $16.984 billion, a year-on-year growth of 22.78%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell to $90 million, a decline of 63.71% [2][5] - The decline in GAAP net profit in Q4 FY2025 was primarily due to the accounting treatment of warrants, while the Non-GAAP net profit exceeded expectations, reaching $278 million, a year-on-year increase of 25.08% [8] Summary by Sections Business Performance - The IDG segment achieved revenue of $36.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with an operating profit margin of 7.2%. The PC business, a cornerstone for Lenovo, saw an 11% year-on-year revenue growth, increasing its market share to 23.7% [8] - Non-PC business revenue accounted for 47% of total revenue, growing by 5 percentage points year-on-year. The smartphone business revenue grew by 27%, with significant increases in the Asia-Pacific region (179% year-on-year) and Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (32% year-on-year) [8] - The ISG segment reported revenue of $10.48 billion, a year-on-year increase of 63%, achieving profitability for two consecutive quarters. The cloud infrastructure business revenue grew by 92% year-on-year [8] Strategic Outlook - Lenovo's AIPC initiative is positioned as a key growth driver, with the launch of advanced AI products enhancing its market presence. The company has a robust global distribution and production strategy to mitigate tariff and geopolitical risks [8] - Projections for net profit attributable to shareholders are $1.665 billion, $1.916 billion, and $2.214 billion for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [8]

丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% %% %% 行业研究丨专题报告丨房地产 [Table_Title] 现房销售的海南经验 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 海南 2020 年 3 月首推"现房销售"，至今已超过 5 年，是观察现房销售影响的一个参照系。得 益于库存充足和市场上行，现房制度对海南市场的短期影响相对可控；微观层面，执行现房销 售使得开盘周期延长一年甚至以上，明显降低资金周转效率；尽管现房销售拖累周转速度，但 通过地价让利和其他配套支持，项目在利润率层面获得补偿。边际角度，高地价、严预售的城 市受影响更小，以及具备融资和产品优势的房企更具备抵抗力。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 侯兆熔 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 现房销售的海南经验 [Table_Summary2] 海南执行现房销售已超过五年 海南 2018 年 4 月实施"全域限购"，2020 年 3 月首推"现房销售"。海南房地产市场在 2010 年 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [14]. Core Views - The company, Times New Materials, is a new materials platform under the state-owned enterprise China CRRC, showcasing strong competitiveness in recent years. The company has a solid foundation and is expected to continue growing across various sectors by 2025, particularly benefiting from the wind power segment, which is anticipated to contribute the most profit elasticity due to rising installation volumes and prices [3][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Times New Materials focuses on the research and engineering application of polymer materials, extending its products into rubber, plastics, composite materials, and functional materials. The company has achieved large-scale engineering applications in industries such as rail transportation, industrial engineering, wind power, automotive parts, new materials, and special equipment. In 2024, the company is projected to achieve sales of 20.055 billion yuan, with a total workforce of 6,341, including 1,184 R&D personnel [22][27]. Wind Power Blades - The wind power blade industry is characterized by high concentration, with Times New Materials and China National Materials forming a dual-leader structure, together holding nearly 60% of the market share. The company has been enhancing its competitive advantages through deep cooperation with quality clients and improving operational efficiency. Despite overall industry losses in recent years, the company has maintained stable profitability, with expectations for wind power installations to accelerate in 2025, reaching 111 GW, a nearly 40% year-on-year increase [9][50][32]. New Materials - The new materials division is focusing on high-end polyurethane damping products, wear-resistant products, HP-RTM composite materials, and advanced organic silicon materials. The new materials industrial park is gradually being put into operation, which will enhance the company's scale advantages and further industrialize its R&D achievements, indicating broad long-term growth potential [10][28]. Automotive Sector - The automotive sector has seen strategic adjustments leading to operational improvements, with the company expected to turn profitable in 2024 and further solidify its results in 2025. There is significant potential for increasing the value per vehicle, as the company currently mainly supplies damping products and injection-molded parts, which have relatively low value per vehicle [11][29]. Rail Transportation & Industrial Engineering - The company is actively expanding production capacity and pursuing overseas market opportunities. It has established close collaborations with major global locomotive manufacturers and is expected to leverage its global factory resources to further penetrate international markets [12][29].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [13]. Core Views - The company, Times New Materials, is a new materials platform under the state-owned enterprise China CNR, showcasing strong competitiveness in recent years. The company has a solid foundation and is expected to continue growing across various sectors by 2025, particularly benefiting from the wind power segment, which is anticipated to contribute the most profit elasticity due to rising installation demand [4][7][21]. Summary by Sections Wind Power Blades - The wind power blade industry is highly concentrated, with Times New Materials and China National Materials forming a dual-leader structure, holding nearly 60% of the market share. The company has been improving its operational efficiency and profitability, achieving stable profits even during industry downturns. By 2025, wind power installations are expected to accelerate, reaching approximately 111 GW, a nearly 40% year-on-year increase, which will enhance profit margins for the company [8][45][38]. New Materials - The new materials division is focusing on high-end polyurethane products and advanced composite materials, with significant breakthroughs in market development and production capacity. The new materials industrial park is gradually being put into operation, which will further industrialize the company's R&D achievements and provide substantial growth potential in the long term [9][21]. Automotive - The automotive segment has successfully turned losses into profits through strategic adjustments, with a focus on enhancing the value per vehicle. The company is shifting production capacity from high-cost regions to lower-cost areas, which is expected to solidify its profitability by 2024 and expand growth potential in the medium to long term [10][21]. Rail Transit & Industrial Engineering - The company is actively expanding production capacity and pursuing overseas market opportunities. It has established close collaborations with major global locomotive manufacturers, which will facilitate further international expansion [11][21].

Group 1 - The report suggests a shift in credit bond strategy towards a defensive coupon strategy, focusing on mid to high-grade varieties to avoid interest rate fluctuation risks while waiting for opportunities in ultra-long local government bonds and high-quality industrial bonds [3][5] - As of May 30, the credit spread for 3-year AA(2) urban investment bonds compared to the same maturity national development bonds was only 48 basis points, indicating limited room for further compression [5] - The report highlights that the recent decline in deposit rates is driving funds towards wealth management and insurance products, benefiting AA+ and above urban investment bonds, but warns of the differentiation risks in weaker regional urban investment and low-grade industrial bonds [6] Group 2 - The current interest rate bond market is in a "vacuum of expectations," with potential upward pressure on yields due to external events and the central bank's pause in bond purchases [7] - Investors are advised to slightly reduce duration exposure and avoid excessive downgrading of credit quality, while paying attention to special clauses in credit bonds to enhance safety margins [7] - The report emphasizes the need for institutional investors to prioritize stable mid to high-grade credit bonds with low valuation volatility and to use coupon income to offset potential capital loss [5][7]