Group 1: Report Highlights - The report is the first part of the "Local Government Bond Investment Guide" series, observing the investment value of local government bonds from the perspectives of primary market issuance characteristics and secondary market trading characteristics [4]. - In recent years, the issuance rhythm of local government bonds has shown a significant end - of - month rush, with a gradually market - oriented pricing mechanism, anchoring the Treasury bond yield and the interest rate being close to the bidding lower limit, but there are "flying" phenomena in a few regions. - Local government bonds show anti - decline attributes during the adjustment period, and their allocation value is prominent in the interest rate downward cycle. There are obvious floating profit differentiations among regions, with smaller arbitrage spaces in economically developed regions and higher probabilities of floating profits in special refinancing bonds and regions with low "flying" rates [4]. Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The issuance rhythm of local government bonds is highly coordinated with policy guidance. From 2018 - 2024, the completion rate of the Ministry of Finance's guidance on the issuance time of special bonds exceeded 95%, and in years with strong policy statements, the end - of - month issuance completion rate was close to 100%. There is a significant end - of - month concentrated issuance pattern, with the average issuance volume in the second half of each month from 2021 - 2024 accounting for 75%, and in most months, the issuance volume in the last five days accounts for over 25% of the monthly total [6]. - The pricing mechanism of local government bonds has evolved over four key stages in the past decade. Currently, 89.5% of the local government bonds issued in 2024 still use the Treasury bond yield as the sole pricing benchmark, and the "Treasury bond + local government bond yield curve" dual - anchor model piloted in Shenzhen provides a practical sample for regional innovation. Most local government bonds are issued at the lower limit of the bidding range, with only a few showing significant "flying" phenomena. The term spread structure is significant, with the issuance spread of bonds over 10 - year terms being 8bp higher on average than that of 2 - 7 - year varieties from December 2024 to January 15, 2025 [7]. - Different types of institutions have different allocation strategies. Commercial banks' comprehensive returns on general and special bonds are slightly lower due to capital occupation for credit risk weighting, while public funds are more competitive without such constraints and enjoying tax preferences. Institutions' operations during adjustment and non - adjustment periods are significantly different, and the post - listing valuations of general and special bonds are still differentiated [8]. - Local government bonds show unique risk - return characteristics in the interest rate cycle. Their defensive attributes were stronger than Treasury bonds from October 2022 to September 2023, but their offensive attributes increased and the volatility was higher than Treasury bonds since September 2023. In 2024, local government bonds had the smallest adjustment range and the strongest anti - decline ability during multiple adjustments, and there were significant differences in floating profits and losses among regions. In 2024, the proportion of coupon income of short - end bonds decreased, and the proportion of riding income increased significantly [9]. Group 4: Summaries by Directory Local Debt Issuance Rhythm Follows Guidance - The issuance progress of new special bonds each year generally meets the requirements of the guidance, and most of the issuance work is completed before the guiding month. In 2018 - 2021, the actual issuance completion rate was mostly higher than 95% by the end of the guiding month. In 2024, the issuance progress of about 290 billion yuan of special bonds was close to 100% by the end of October [18]. - There is a significant end - of - month rush in the issuance of new special bonds. From 2021 - 2024, the issuance volume in the second half of the month was significantly higher than that in the first half. In 2024, the second - half issuance accounted for 79% of the annual total, and for local government bonds in general, there was a peak supply at the end of the month, with the issuance proportion from the 26th to the 31st of each month in 2024 accounting for more than 25% of the monthly total [23]. Gradual Marketization of Local Debt Primary Pricing - The pricing of local government bond issuance has gradually moved away from the fixed spread model and towards a more market - oriented direction, going through four stages: the market exploration stage (2015 - 2018), the administrative spread constraint stage (2018 - 2021), the lower - limit breakthrough pilot stage (2021 - 2022), and the yield curve anchoring stage (2022 - present). Currently, the overall spread has gradually declined to below 10bp [7]. - Most bonds are still anchored to the Treasury bond yield curve, and only Shenzhen bonds use a dual - pricing mechanism. Among the 200 local government bond sub - samples issued in 2024, 89.5% are anchored to a single curve, and the upper - limit expression of most bonds shows a certain concentration, with the proportion of bonds with an upper limit of 30% above the Treasury bond yield average being the largest [30]. - In 2024, the range of the arithmetic mean of primary spreads among regions could exceed 7bp. The "flying" degree varies among regions, with some regions having a high average "flying" index and some economically developed regions having no "flying" phenomenon. There have also been cases of postponed bond issuances [40]. - China's local government bonds mainly use Dutch auctions. High - flying - index bonds generally have weak demand but may have extreme heat due to liquidity premiums, low - flying - index bonds have stable demand, and medium - flying - index bonds have highly volatile demand due to divided subscription expectations [45]. - From December 2024 to January 15, 2025, the issuance spreads of local government bonds over 10 - year terms increased significantly, while those of 2 - 7 - year bonds decreased slightly. The primary spread of local government bonds is related to the Treasury bond yield and its own liquidity premium [52]. Differentiated Institutional Behaviors and Market Liquidity Structure - Commercial banks need to account for capital occupation costs when investing in bonds, resulting in lower comprehensive returns on general and special bonds. Public funds are more competitive without such constraints and enjoying tax preferences [67]. - In the local government bond market, insurance companies continuously increase their holdings during non - adjustment periods and increase their holdings counter - cyclically during adjustment periods. Banks, funds, and securities companies have different trading behaviors during adjustment and non - adjustment periods, and the net purchases of each institution during adjustment periods are significantly differentiated [71]. - Theoretically, the yield of special bonds should be higher than that of general bonds. After listing, the valuations of general and special bonds are still differentiated, indicating that the market has implicit pricing differences for factors such as liquidity [79]. Evolution of Risk - Return Characteristics and Strategy Selection - From 2022 - 2023, local government bonds showed stronger defensive attributes than Treasury bonds in the first bull - bear market but stronger offensive attributes in the second one. In 2024, local government bonds had a smaller adjustment range and stronger anti - decline ability during multiple adjustments, and there were significant differences in floating profits and losses among regions [9]. - In 2024, the proportion of coupon income of short - end bonds decreased, and the proportion of riding income increased significantly, reflecting the decline in interest rates and the magnification of the duration effect [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Insights - In FY2025Q1 (January 1, 2025 - March 31, 2025), Adidas achieved revenue of €6.15 billion, slightly above expectations (Bloomberg consensus expected €6.10 billion), with a year-on-year growth of 13% at constant exchange rates. Excluding the impact of Yeezy, Adidas brand revenue grew by 17% year-on-year [2][4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was €430 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 151%. The gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 52.1%, primarily due to lower product costs and shipping expenses, as well as improved discounts [2][4] Revenue Breakdown - **By Region**: Excluding the Yeezy business, all regions showed strong growth. Latin America and emerging markets continued robust growth, with revenues increasing by 26% and 23% year-on-year to €700 million and €870 million, respectively. Europe, Greater China, and Japan/Korea regions grew by 14%, 13%, and 13% year-on-year, respectively. North America was impacted by the cessation of Yeezy business, with a revenue growth of only 3% year-on-year, but grew by 13% when excluding this factor [5] - **By Channel**: Both DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) and wholesale channels achieved quality growth. Wholesale channel revenue increased by 18% year-on-year to €4.0 billion, benefiting from high sell-through rates and product mix adjustments. E-commerce channel revenue decreased by 3% due to the impact of Yeezy business separation, but grew by 18% when excluding this factor. DTC channel revenue grew by 6% year-on-year to €2.16 billion, driven by double-digit same-store sales growth in owned stores [5] - **By Product**: Footwear products continued to lead growth, with revenue increasing by 17% year-on-year to €3.76 billion. Apparel and equipment also showed growth, with revenues increasing by 8% and 10% year-on-year to €1.97 billion and €424 million, respectively. In FY2025Q1, footwear, apparel, and equipment accounted for 61%, 32%, and 7% of total revenue, respectively, indicating a healthy product mix [6] Inventory and Tariff Impact - Inventory remained healthy, supporting continued growth, with FY2025Q1 inventory at €5.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15% [12] - The impact of tariffs was relatively small due to low procurement from China, with approximately 20% of revenue from the US market, which can be compensated by strong performance in other mature markets. The procurement ratio for footwear from China is around 3%, moving towards zero, and for apparel, it is less than 2% [12] Performance Guidance - The company maintains its full-year guidance, expecting FY2025 revenue to grow at a high single-digit rate at constant exchange rates (Bloomberg expects revenue of €26.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%). The expected operating profit for FY2025 is between €1.7 billion and €1.8 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.2% to 34.6% [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the photovoltaic industry [10]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic sector is currently at a dual bottom in both fundamentals and capital, presenting long-term allocation value and short-term valuation recovery opportunities due to low institutional holdings [2][8]. - The supply side is undergoing accelerated clearing, with significant differentiation among companies, as evidenced by financial reports for 2024 and Q1 2025 [6][18]. - The industry is expected to face increased operational pressure in 2025 compared to 2024, with a focus on supply-demand improvements, particularly in silicon material [34]. Summary by Sections Financial Reports - The photovoltaic supply side is clearing, with many companies facing significant short-term cash pressure. The industry’s asset-liability ratio reached 72.4% in Q1 2025, up 9.2 percentage points year-on-year [6][18]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for the main industry chain was -4.3 billion yuan in Q1 2025, an improvement from -20.4 billion yuan in the same period last year [24]. - The industry is experiencing a reduction in personnel, with over 129,000 jobs cut in 2024, and a significant decrease in R&D, management, and sales expenses [28][31]. Conclusion - The photovoltaic sector is at a clear bottom, with a low institutional holding ratio of 1.83% in Q1 2025, comparable to levels before the 2020 photovoltaic market rally. This suggests a favorable environment for bottom-fishing opportunities [8][35]. - Key areas to focus on include new technology lines, particularly in the BC supply chain, and segments with strong financial reserves or self-discipline mechanisms [2][35].

报告要点 [Table_Summary] 国际绿色电力消费倡议组织（RE100）宣布无条件认可中国绿证，明确企业使用中国绿证不需 要再提供额外证明。标志着我国绿证体系的制度完善与国际互认取得里程碑式突破，助推我国 绿证需求侧加速扩容。长期低位运行的市场需求和绿证价格将得到显著催化，为新能源项目实 现合理收益提供重要支撑。在新能源价格改革持续持续推进的背景下，我们认为各省配套细则 也将承接 136 号文保护存量项目、稳定增量项目收益预期的原则，有助于长远角度新能源发电 的合理健康发展，同时随着绿电消费的加速扩容，绿电公司有望迎来价值重估。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨公用事业 [Table_Title] 国际认可加速绿证消费扩容，价改推进重视绿电 长期价值 SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SAC：S0490523080003 SFC：BQT627 张韦华 司旗 宋尚骞 刘亚辉 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 公用 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that from May 12 to 13, 2025, southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 42.13 billion, primarily flowing into the banking, semiconductor, pharmaceutical, non-bank financial, and durable consumer goods sectors, with the top five industries collectively seeing a net inflow of HKD 45.32 billion [2][6][18] - During the same period, foreign institutional funds experienced a net outflow of HKD 21.71 billion, with significant inflows into non-bank financials, hardware equipment, automotive and parts, home appliances, and media, totaling a net inflow of HKD 32.74 billion across the top five industries [6][29] - The report notes that from May 7 to 13, 2025, southbound funds had a net inflow of HKD 6.25 billion, mainly into banking, discretionary retail, telecommunications services, coal, and pharmaceuticals, with the top five industries seeing a total net inflow of HKD 141.79 billion [7][36] Group 2 - The report indicates that over the past 30 days, the inflow of southbound funds has decreased, while the liquidity surplus in the Hong Kong banking market has significantly increased [5][14] - The report mentions that the "public offering new regulations" have notably enhanced the attractiveness of allocating to large financial sectors in A-shares [5][12] - The report also states that the premium of A-shares over H-shares is currently at a relatively high level, reflecting a divergence in valuation perceptions between investors in both markets [5][20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company reported FY2025A results (April 2024 to March 2025) with main revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders at HKD 16.903 billion and HKD 2.063 billion, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8% and 10% [2][5]. - In FY2025H2, the company experienced a revenue of HKD 8.597 billion and a net profit of HKD 0.924 billion, down 9% and 21% year-on-year [2][5]. - The revenue decline was primarily due to pressure on domestic sales, while external sales showed a slight slowdown [6]. - The company is focusing on internal transformation to enhance competitiveness through channel and marketing changes, with a strong emphasis on its long-term core competitive advantages despite short-term tariff disturbances in external sales [2][6]. Revenue Summary - Domestic sales faced significant pressure, with furniture sales in H2 down 17% (16% in RMB terms), and online and offline sales decreasing by 18% and 11%, respectively [6]. - The company reduced its brand specialty stores by 149 to 7,367 in H2, although there was a net increase of 131 stores for the full year [6]. - External sales grew by 4% in H2, with North America and Europe showing increases of 1% and 11%, respectively [6]. Profitability Analysis - The gross margin and operating profit margin improved in FY2025 due to raw material price reductions and cost control measures [6]. - The gross margin and net profit margin increased by 1.1 and -0.3 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [6]. - The average unit costs for various materials decreased, with significant reductions in advertising and management expenses by 30% and 22%, respectively [6]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued pressure from the real estate and consumer environment but expects marginal benefits from national subsidies for home furnishings [6]. - Plans include restructuring dealer and store layouts, enhancing online presence, and optimizing product series positioning to improve competitiveness [6]. - The company aims to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 51%, corresponding to a current dividend yield of 6.4% [6]. Earnings Forecast - Projected net profits for FY2026 to FY2028 are HKD 2.398 billion, HKD 2.590 billion, and HKD 2.849 billion, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 6.9, 6.3, and 5.8 [10].

行业研究丨深度报告丨医疗保健 创新药迎来政策、产业和业绩三因素共振 再论创新药估值体系 l 证券研究报告 l 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当前创新药行业迎来了政策、产业和业绩的三因素共振，有望进入价值重估的新周期。过去"熊 市思维"下的估值方法可能已经不适用于当前，可能需要我们对创新药公司的估值体系进行重 塑。结合当前创新药行业发生的实际变化，本篇报告重新构建了适合当前创新药行业的简易 P/Peak Sales 估值体系，从估值角度上回答了创新药行业上涨的核心逻辑。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 彭英骐 刘长洪 SAC：S0490524030005 SFC：BUZ392 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 28 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 医疗保健 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 创新药迎来政策、产业和业绩三因素共振 2] ——再论创新药估值体系 [Table_Summary2] 政策、产业和业绩三因素共振，创新药大有可为 政策端：医药行业属于强监管行业，呈现一定的"政策周期 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨消费者服务Ⅱ [Table_Title] 社会服务行业 2024A&2025Q1 业绩综述：青山 愈显处，韧行见新章 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2024 年，社会服务行业整体营业收入同比+0.97%，较 2019 年提升 13.71%，酒店、景区、餐 饮等出行链子行业受益于需求韧性、龙头扩张份额提升等，经营修复持续向好，2024 年营收分 别同比+1.4%/+0.9%/+3.2%，2025Q1 进一步改善。各板块利润层面表现分化，社服行业整体 归母净利润同比下降 43.61%，恢复至 2019 年的 50.08%，其中景区/人资/酒店/餐饮/免税/出境 游/教育分别同比+61.49%/+56.11%/-4.67%/-36.59%/-54.84%/-99.55%/减亏。2025Q1，行业整 体营收同比-1.58%，较 2019 年同期提升 23.45%；归母净利润同比-5.9%，系免税等板块拖累。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517020001 SAC：S0490520080013 SFC：BUX176 赵刚 杨会强 马健 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 40.36 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.86 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year [4][10]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 10.41 billion yuan, a 12.0% increase year-on-year, but the net profit turned to a loss of 0.07 billion yuan, a decline of 173.7% year-on-year due to product structure adjustments [2][4]. - The company is recognized as a rare full-network express enterprise, with expectations for continued market share growth and effective integration with JD Logistics' express business [2][10]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's revenue grew by 11.3% year-on-year, with express and other business revenues increasing by 13.0% and 34.6%, respectively, while the express delivery business saw a decline of 19.7% [2][10]. - The gross profit margin decreased by 0.9 percentage points due to a shift in business structure towards lower-margin operations and increased investment in transportation resources [10]. - The company maintained effective cost control, with total expenses decreasing by 7.1% year-on-year, leading to a net profit growth of 15.4% [10]. Quarterly Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, with a net profit of 0.34 billion yuan, up 25.2% year-on-year [4][10]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue increase of 12.0% year-on-year, but the net profit turned negative due to increased costs and structural adjustments [10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue increasing its market share and improve profitability through ongoing integration with JD Logistics and steady growth in cargo volume [10]. - Forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.90 billion yuan, 1.02 billion yuan, and 1.15 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14.7, 13.1, and 11.6 [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 8.124 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 34%, while net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 19% to 334 million yuan [2][5]. - The company is recognized as a pioneer in cross-border home goods, with a strong competitive edge, particularly in the North American market, where revenue growth reached 39% [12]. - The company is actively optimizing its supply chain and expanding its presence in Southeast Asia to mitigate tariff impacts, with 40% of shipments to the U.S. now coming from this region [12]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 8.124 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 2.815 billion yuan, resulting in a gross margin of 35% [15]. - The net profit for 2024 was 334 million yuan, with an estimated net profit of 439 million yuan for 2025 [15]. - The company expects to achieve net profits of 440 million yuan, 550 million yuan, and 660 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17.3, 13.8, and 11.5 [12][15]. Market Performance - The company has shown strong growth in new channels, with Amazon's basic advantages being reinforced and other channels like OTTO and independent sites showing significant growth of 40% and 58% respectively [12]. - The company has improved its logistics efficiency in Europe, reducing delivery times and increasing the proportion of self-fulfillment [12]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its brand strength, ranking first in home furniture categories on Amazon in Germany, France, the UK, and Italy [12]. - The company is diversifying its sales channels to reduce reliance on single platforms, thus activating new market opportunities [12].