证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 07 月 06 日 反内卷成效将影响资产风格 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每月 国内方面， 1）6 月末至 7 月初高频数据有三点重要变化：上游沥青开工相对 强劲，其余数据继续放缓；半钢胎开工率大幅回落，尚不确定是反内卷的成 效、还是国补退坡叠加出口放缓预期的结果；一线城市二手房挂牌量价看似有 所企稳。2）财政端基调仍然积极，若经济下行节奏过快，有能力随时进行逆 周期调节。 海外方面，1）6 月非农数据显示劳动力市场仍在温和放缓，就业数据基本打 消 7 月降息预期。2）7 月 4 日美国总统特朗普签署大漂亮法案，法案 10 年增 加 4.1 万亿美元总赤字，比此前众议院版本多增赤 1 万亿美元。其中，26-28 年财政赤字率在 7%左右（明显高于 24-25 年）。 资产端：重申"强美股+弱美元"提振非美风险偏好、改善非美流动性。1）减 税法案落地、AI 产业趋势向好、贸易谈判推进均有助于继续支撑美股。同时， 美联储即将开启降息、欧洲即将结束降息和日本延续加息周期的相对变化还是 会削弱美元指数走势。2）回到国内， "强美股+弱美元"组合下，继续看多 国内权益资产 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" investment rating, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance exceeding the benchmark index [2][39]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in stablecoins and RWA (Real World Assets) both domestically and internationally, with a focus on the integration of these innovations into traditional finance, suggesting a potential global financial innovation cycle [5][27]. - The report emphasizes the continuous progress in the unmanned logistics sector, particularly through JD Logistics' introduction of self-developed unmanned vehicles and drones, which are expected to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs significantly [19][21]. - The AI industry is witnessing ongoing developments, particularly in large model applications, with notable advancements from companies like Baidu and Microsoft, indicating a robust growth trajectory in AI-driven solutions across various sectors [23][24]. Summary by Sections RWA and Stablecoin Developments - The report details the launch of stock tokenization services by Robinhood and other platforms, allowing for trading of over 200 US stocks and ETFs with features like zero commission and low trading thresholds [9][11]. - Domestic interest in offshore RMB stablecoins is rising, with companies like JD and Ant Group advocating for regulatory approval to enhance RMB internationalization [14][15]. Unmanned Logistics Updates - JD Logistics has unveiled its self-developed unmanned light truck, capable of a 400 km range and L4 autonomous driving, which can reduce logistics costs by approximately 60% [19][21]. - The report also discusses the launch of JD's intelligent delivery vehicles and drones, designed for various logistics applications, showcasing significant technological advancements in the sector [21][22]. AI Industry Chain Updates - Baidu's release of the ERNIE 4.5 series models marks a significant step in AI model development, with open-source capabilities enhancing accessibility for developers [23]. - Microsoft's AI diagnostic tool demonstrates a fourfold improvement in disease diagnosis accuracy compared to human doctors, indicating the transformative potential of AI in healthcare [24]. Market Performance Review - The computer sector experienced a decline of 1.28% in the first week of July 2025, with notable stock performances from companies like Xuanji Information and ST Saiwei [29][30].

Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam, while Vietnam maintains zero tariffs on U.S. goods[9] - New unilateral tariffs may range from 10% to 70%, with implementation expected around August 1[6] - The U.S. is conducting a 232 investigation into sectors like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which began in April, indicating potential short-term tariff risks[15] Group 2: Political Developments - Trump's position within the Republican Party has strengthened following a series of political successes since June, including the signing of the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill[6] - The U.S. Supreme Court has supported Trump's executive powers, allowing him to pursue his policy agenda without significant judicial challenges[13] - The upcoming G20 finance ministers' meeting and the BRICS+ summit are critical events to monitor for international economic discussions[3] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions include the Israel-Palestine conflict and U.S.-Iran negotiations, with a focus on potential ceasefire outcomes and nuclear discussions[16] - The U.S. aims to rebalance its relations with major powers, particularly in the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which presents significant negotiation challenges[18] - The potential for a framework agreement in trade negotiations exists, but countries may shift conflicts to third parties to achieve short-term wins[12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the metal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment remains complex, with a strong US dollar putting pressure on metal prices. However, the second half of the year is expected to see a transition into a global easing phase, benefiting metal prices [1]. - Gold prices have recently adjusted, but the long-term bullish logic remains intact. Resource stocks are generally undervalued, and there is optimism for commodity prices in the long term [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on undervalued companies with good growth potential, as well as those related to self-sufficiency and emerging technologies such as robotics and controlled nuclear fusion [1]. Industry Overview - The metal industry has a total of 235 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 4,334.2 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 4,029.6 billion [2]. - The performance of the metal industry index shows a 10.0% increase over one month, 19.5% over six months, and 36.4% over twelve months, indicating strong growth [4]. Specific Metal Insights - Copper: As of July 3, copper inventory in major regions increased by 0.17 thousand tons to 131.8 thousand tons, which is significantly lower than the 409.8 thousand tons from the previous year. The report anticipates a strong copper market in the medium to long term, despite short-term volatility due to macroeconomic factors [6]. - Aluminum: The report notes weak demand for aluminum, with a significant increase in inventory. However, the long-term outlook for aluminum remains positive [7]. - Rare Earths: Prices for rare earth elements such as terbium and dysprosium have shown slight increases, with expectations for improved demand as traditional peak seasons approach [8]. Stock Performance - The report highlights the best-performing stock of the week as Fuda Alloy, which saw a 13.04% increase, while the worst performer was Xinbo Co., which experienced a 7.98% decline [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for structural growth opportunities [20][21]. Core Insights - The report highlights a stabilization in the price of Moutai, suggesting a potential improvement in sentiment within the liquor sector. It notes that while short-term demand fluctuations may lead to a slowdown in the liquor sector in Q2 2025, leading companies are working to maintain price stability, and smaller companies are adapting to consumer trends [20][21]. - The snack segment is experiencing stable performance in traditional channels, with rapid growth in membership supermarket channels. New products are expected to be launched in the second half of 2025, and the pet food sector is also showing good growth [20][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product quality enhancement, channel expansion, and innovative marketing strategies as key methods for companies to navigate current market challenges [20][21]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - Luzhou Laojiao is improving market inventory and plans to expand its distribution network to four million terminals over the next five years. The company is also developing lower-alcohol products [11][12]. - Yanghe Co. has appointed new leadership, which is expected to drive organizational adjustments and enhance operational dynamics. The company continues to innovate its product line [12]. - Jiugui Liquor is focusing on channel adjustments and has partnered with a retail chain to explore new growth avenues [13]. - New Dairy is benefiting from cost advantages, leading to stronger profit release capabilities, with a focus on low-temperature milk products [14]. - Jinzai Food is in a cautious operational phase, with stable performance in traditional and snack channels [15][16]. - Zhongchong Co. is seeing continued growth in its self-owned brands, despite some export challenges [17]. - Petty Co. is expanding its product offerings in both snacks and staple foods, with a focus on New Zealand's production capacity [18]. - Anji Food has successfully listed its H shares, raising approximately 2.302 billion HKD [19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on growth sectors influenced by changing consumer trends, with specific recommendations for companies like Zhongchong Co., Guobao Pet Food, and Nongfu Spring [21]. - It also highlights structural growth opportunities in the restaurant chain recovery, recommending companies such as Zhujiang Beer and Yanjing Beer [21]. - For traditional consumer goods, it advises investing in leading liquor companies and dairy products, with a focus on companies like Yili and New Dairy [21]. Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry is characterized by a total of 143 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 478.1 billion RMB [4]. - The industry has shown a mixed performance, with a 1-month absolute performance of -4.7% and a 12-month performance of 28.2% [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The automotive industry saw a slight increase of 0.2% from June 29 to July 5, with various new energy vehicle manufacturers reporting significant sales growth [1][22]. - Notable performances include Leap Motor's delivery of 48,000 units in June, a year-on-year increase of over 138%, and Xiaopeng Motors' delivery of 35,000 units, a year-on-year surge of 224% [22]. - Changan Automobile plans to establish a factory in Europe to support its sales strategy, aiming to expand into at least 10 European markets by the end of 2025 [27]. - BYD launched its flagship luxury MPV, the M9, in Mexico, marking a significant step in its high-end new energy market strategy [23]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's overall market performance was positive, with secondary segments like motorcycles and commercial vehicles showing notable increases of 5.1% and 1.5%, respectively [11]. - The report highlights that the automotive industry has a total of 259 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 4,051.4 billion [4]. Company-Specific Developments - Leap Motor's June deliveries reached 48,000 units, while Hongmeng Zhixing delivered 53,000 units, and the Wanjie brand delivered 45,000 units [22]. - The report emphasizes the strong sales potential of models like the Changan S800, which achieved over 6,500 pre-orders in its first month [23]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong sales performance or potential blockbuster vehicles, including BYD, Seres, Great Wall Motors, and Jianghuai Automobile [8]. Recent Vehicle Launches - Xiaopeng G7, a new AI smart family SUV, was launched with a price range of 195,800 to 225,800 yuan, featuring advanced AI capabilities [26]. - The report also notes the upcoming launches of new models from various manufacturers, including the i8 from Ideal Motors and the B01 from Leap Motor [21].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Short-term Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to provide short-term market timing signals based on various market indicators. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Fundamental Indicators**: - Manufacturing PMI: Current value is 49.70, at the 44.92% percentile over the past 5 years, giving a neutral signal[17] - RMB medium and long-term loan balance growth rate: Current value is 6.78%, at the 0.00% percentile over the past 5 years, giving a cautious signal[17] - M1 growth rate: Current value is 2.30%, at the 77.97% percentile over the past 5 years, giving an optimistic signal[17] - **Valuation Indicators**: - PE median: Current value is 40.16, at the 92.80% percentile over the past 5 years, giving a neutral signal[18] - PB median: Current value is 2.68, at the 71.05% percentile over the past 5 years, giving a neutral signal[18] - **Sentiment Indicators**: - Beta dispersion: Current value is -0.59%, at the 40.68% percentile over the past 5 years, giving a neutral signal[20] - Volume sentiment score: Current value is 0.30, at the 72.70% percentile over the past 5 years, giving an optimistic signal[20] - Volatility: Current value is 11.57% (annualized), at the 12.99% percentile over the past 5 years, giving a neutral signal[20] - **Liquidity Indicators**: - Monetary rate indicator: Current value is -0.10, at the 33.90% percentile over the past 5 years, giving an optimistic signal[20] - Exchange rate expectation indicator: Current value is -0.09%, at the 40.68% percentile over the past 5 years, giving a neutral signal[20] - Average new financing amount over 5 days: Current value is 23.20 billion, at the 80.81% percentile over the past 5 years, giving a neutral signal[20] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive view of short-term market conditions by integrating fundamental, valuation, sentiment, and liquidity indicators. 2. Model Name: Growth-Value Style Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to rotate between growth and value styles based on economic cycles and market conditions. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Fundamental Indicators**: - Profit cycle slope: High, favoring growth[32] - Interest rate cycle level: High, favoring value[32] - Credit cycle trend: Weak, favoring value[32] - **Valuation Indicators**: - PE valuation difference: 5-year percentile is 15.19%, favoring growth[32] - PB valuation difference: 5-year percentile is 34.08%, favoring growth[32] - **Sentiment Indicators**: - Turnover difference: 5-year percentile is 21.01%, favoring value[32] - Volatility difference: 5-year percentile is 20.58%, favoring balanced allocation[32] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the rotation between growth and value styles by considering fundamental, valuation, and sentiment factors. 3. Model Name: Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Style Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to rotate between small-cap and large-cap styles based on economic cycles and market conditions. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Fundamental Indicators**: - Profit cycle slope: High, favoring small-cap[36] - Interest rate cycle level: High, favoring large-cap[36] - Credit cycle trend: Weak, favoring large-cap[36] - **Valuation Indicators**: - PE valuation difference: 5-year percentile is 80.60%, favoring large-cap[36] - PB valuation difference: 5-year percentile is 99.59%, favoring large-cap[36] - **Sentiment Indicators**: - Turnover difference: 5-year percentile is 54.26%, neutral[36] - Volatility difference: 5-year percentile is 83.71%, favoring large-cap[36] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a balanced approach to rotating between small-cap and large-cap styles by integrating fundamental, valuation, and sentiment indicators. 4. Model Name: Four-Style Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model combines the growth-value and small-cap vs. large-cap rotation models to provide a comprehensive allocation across four styles. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Allocation Recommendation**: - Small-cap growth: 12.5%[41] - Small-cap value: 37.5%[41] - Large-cap growth: 12.5%[41] - Large-cap value: 37.5%[41] - **Model Evaluation**: The model offers a diversified approach to style rotation, leveraging insights from both growth-value and small-cap vs. large-cap models. Model Backtest Results Short-term Timing Model - Annualized Return: 16.58%[26] - Annualized Volatility: 14.57%[26] - Maximum Drawdown: 27.70%[26] - Sharpe Ratio: 0.9889[26] - Monthly Win Rate: 69.74%[26] - Quarterly Win Rate: 69.23%[26] - Annual Win Rate: 85.71%[26] Growth-Value Style Rotation Model - Annualized Return: 11.67%[35] - Annualized Volatility: 20.84%[35] - Maximum Drawdown: 43.07%[35] - Sharpe Ratio: 0.5387[35] - Monthly Win Rate: 58.28%[35] - Quarterly Win Rate: 60.78%[35] Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Style Rotation Model - Annualized Return: 12.21%[40] - Annualized Volatility: 22.73%[40] - Maximum Drawdown: 50.65%[40] - Sharpe Ratio: 0.5336[40] - Monthly Win Rate: 60.93%[40] - Quarterly Win Rate: 58.82%[40] Four-Style Rotation Model - Annualized Return: 13.17%[43] - Annualized Volatility: 21.58%[43] - Maximum Drawdown: 47.91%[43] - Sharpe Ratio: 0.5895[43] - Monthly Win Rate: 59.60%[43] - Quarterly Win Rate: 62.75%[43] - Annual Win Rate: 69.23%[43]

Group 1: OBBBA Overview - The OBBBA increases the baseline deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next 10 years, with total deficits reaching $4.1 trillion including $0.7 trillion in interest expenses[8] - The bill was passed by the House with a vote of 218 to 214 and signed by President Trump on July 4[4] - The overall debt ceiling is raised by $5 trillion, exceeding the House version by $1 trillion[8] Group 2: Economic Impact - OBBBA is expected to boost U.S. economic growth by 1.2% in 2026 and peak at 1.5% in 2028, but the long-term impact may be weaker than the 2017 tax cuts[22] - The projected deficit rate for the next three years is around 7%, significantly higher than the previous two years[14] - Short-term benefits from tax cuts favor middle-income earners, while long-term benefits are skewed towards high-income groups[28] Group 3: Tax and Spending Changes - The tax cuts include permanent provisions for individual income tax and corporate tax credits, with a total tax reduction of $4.5 trillion[18] - Significant spending cuts are planned, including $1.074 trillion from medical subsidies and $543 billion from clean energy subsidies over the next 10 years[22] - The bill also abolishes certain tax benefits from the Biden administration, including parts of the "Green New Deal" and some social welfare programs[19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Yutong Bus [3][5]. Core Views - Yutong Bus has shown significant growth in June sales, with a total of 5,919 vehicles sold, representing a 24.8% increase year-on-year. Cumulative sales for the first half of 2025 reached 21,321 vehicles, up 3.7% [1]. - The domestic market is benefiting from the "old-for-new" policy in the public transport sector, which has increased subsidies for replacing old electric buses to 80,000 yuan per vehicle, further driving demand [1]. - The company has made substantial inroads into overseas markets, with total sales exceeding 10,000 vehicles in Central Asia and nearly 6,000 units in Europe, supported by strong technological capabilities and after-sales service [2]. - Yutong Bus is optimizing its product layout in line with industry trends, focusing on electrification, intelligent connectivity, and high-end products, which positions the company well for future growth [2]. Financial Summary - The projected net profits for Yutong Bus from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 4.691 billion yuan, 5.274 billion yuan, and 6.069 billion yuan respectively, indicating a robust growth trajectory [3][4]. - The total revenue for 2025 is expected to reach 42.614 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15% [4]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 32.0% in 2025, reflecting strong profitability [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the performance and capital flow of the ETF fund market in the past week (from June 30th to July 4th), providing reference for investors [1]. - Most A - share - focused ETFs rose this week. Among them, pharmaceutical and biological ETFs had the largest increase, with an average increase of 3.11% for funds above a certain scale, while TMT ETFs declined, with an average decrease of 0.19% for funds above a certain scale [2][5]. - Capital continued to flow into bond ETFs significantly, with a net inflow of 11.299 billion yuan for the whole week. On the contrary, large - cap index ETFs experienced significant capital outflows, with a net outflow of 19.567 billion yuan for the whole week [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 ETF Market Overall Performance - Market performance: Most A - share - focused ETFs rose. Pharmaceutical and biological ETFs had the largest increase (3.11% on average for large - scale funds), and TMT ETFs declined (0.19% on average for large - scale funds) [2][5]. - Capital flow: Bond ETFs had a net capital inflow of 11.299 billion yuan, and large - cap index ETFs had a net capital outflow of 19.567 billion yuan [3][5]. - Top - performing funds: Some Hong Kong - listed innovative drug ETFs, such as Wanjia CSI Hong Kong - Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (520700), had high weekly returns, with a weekly increase of 7.55% [8]. - Top funds in terms of capital inflow: E Fund Shanghai Stock Exchange Benchmark Market - Making Corporate Bond ETF (511110) had a capital inflow of 1.982 billion yuan [9]. - Top funds in terms of capital outflow: Huatai - Peregrine CSI 300 ETF (510300) had a capital outflow of 6.626 billion yuan [10]. 3.2 Different Popular Sub - Type ETF Fund Market Performance - **Stock ETF - Broad - Based Index**: Different broad - based index ETFs had different performances. For example, in the super - large - cap index category, Huaxia SSE 50 ETF (510050) had a weekly increase of 1.47% [12]. - **Stock ETF - Industry Theme**: Each industry - themed ETF also showed different trends. For instance, in the TMT sector, some semiconductor - related ETFs declined, while in the pharmaceutical and biological sector, some innovative drug ETFs rose [18][21]. - **Bond ETF**: Various bond ETFs had capital inflows, such as Southern Shanghai Stock Exchange Benchmark Market - Making Corporate Bond ETF (511070) with a capital inflow of 1.32 billion yuan [26]. - **QDII ETF**: Some Hong Kong - related innovative drug QDII ETFs had high returns, like GF CSI Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (513120) with a weekly increase of 7.35% [27]. - **Commodity ETF**: Gold - related commodity ETFs, such as Huaan Gold ETF (518880), had a certain increase [28]. 3.3 Innovation Theme and Sub - Industry ETF Fund Market Performance - **TMT Innovation Theme**: The animation and game theme had a high weekly increase of 6.99%, and the representative fund, Huaxia Game ETF (159869), had a weekly increase of 6.77% [30]. - **Consumption Sub - Industry**: The livestock and poultry breeding sub - industry had a weekly increase of 2.31%, and the representative fund, Cathay Pacific Livestock and Poultry Breeding ETF (159865), had a weekly increase of 2.36% [31]. - **Pharmaceutical Sub - Industry**: The innovative drug sub - industry had a weekly increase of 4.56%, and the representative fund, Yin Hua Innovative Drug ETF (159992), had a weekly increase of 4.73% [32]. - **New Energy Theme**: The photovoltaic industry theme had a weekly increase of 4.44%, and the representative fund, Huatai - Peregrine Photovoltaic ETF (515790), had a weekly increase of 4.41% [33]. - **Central and State - Owned Enterprises Theme**: The central enterprise dividend theme had a weekly increase of 2.83%, and the representative fund, Huatai - Peregrine Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (561580), had a weekly increase of 2.73% [34]. - **Steady - Growth Theme**: The CSI Iron and Steel theme had a weekly increase of 5.62%, and the representative fund, Cathay Pacific Iron and Steel ETF (515210), had a weekly increase of 5.41% [35]. - **Hong Kong - related Sub - Industry**: The Hong Kong biotechnology sub - industry had a weekly increase of 5.94%, and the representative fund, Huaxia Hang Seng Biotechnology ETF (159892), had a weekly increase of 5.16% [36]. - **Dividend/Dividend Low - Volatility Index Family**: The CSI 300 Dividend Index had a weekly increase of 2.59%, and the representative fund, Jianxin CSI 300 Dividend ETF (512530), had a weekly increase of 2.66% [37]. - **Growth Enterprise Market Index Family**: The ChiNext 50 Index had a weekly increase of 1.93%, and the representative fund, Huaan ChiNext 50 ETF (159949), had a weekly increase of 1.79% [38].