半导体行业深度跟踪 TMT 及中小盘/电子 进入 25Q2 以来，海外对国内半导体先进制程代工、算力芯片等出口管制仍趋 严，但在此背景下国内先进制程产能和良率持续提升，国内沐曦和摩尔线程招 股书均强调国内先进代工、HBM 和 2.5D 封装等供应链自主可控提速，部分半 导体设备/材料等厂商 25Q2 签单和业绩增长趋势向好。同时，国内半导体其他 环节如存储/模拟/MCU 等细分领域景气度持续回暖，部分 SoC 厂商指引下游需 求依然旺盛。建议关注国内自主可控提速的半导体代工/设备/材料/零部件/算力 芯片等领域、景气周期边际复苏叠加创新加速的存储/SoC/模拟/材料等板块， 同时建议关注各科创指数和半导体指数核心成分股。 2、库存端：手机链相对稳定 PC 链环比仍有提升，功率类库存望达周期峰值。 全球手机链芯片大厂 25Q1 库存环比微降/库存周转天数环比提升，PC 链芯片 厂商 25Q1 库存环比微增/库存周转天数环比下降，英特尔表示整个行业都采 取了更为保守的库存策略，AMD 表示游戏厂商启动库存补货周期。全球模拟 芯片厂商库存 25Q1 环比仍有增长，TI 表示所有终端客户库存处于低位。功 率类芯片公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "strong buy" rating for key companies in the e-commerce and retail sectors, including Alibaba, JD Group, Pinduoduo, and Vipshop [19][21]. Core Insights - The restaurant and tourism sector index increased by 0.71%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index (up 1.54%) and the ChiNext Index (up 1.50%) [5][7]. - Taobao Flash Sale launched a subsidy program of 50 billion yuan, resulting in a 140% increase in business for small and medium-sized restaurant merchants [27]. - Meituan's daily order volume for instant retail surpassed 120 million, with restaurant orders exceeding 100 million [28]. - The upcoming summer travel season is expected to boost the tourism sector, with strong demand for short-distance self-driving and family trips [5][19]. Industry Overview Restaurant and Tourism Sector - The top five stocks in the restaurant and tourism sector this week were ST Zhangjiajie (+2.58%), Qujiang Cultural Tourism (+2.17%), and Quanjude (+1.80%) [10]. - The overall performance of the restaurant and tourism sector has shown a decline of 1.09% since the beginning of 2025 [7]. E-commerce Sector - The competitive landscape in the e-commerce sector is perceived to be overly pessimistic, with expectations for profit stability and valuation recovery [19]. - The report highlights the strong performance of Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD Group, and Vipshop, recommending them for investment [19][21]. Retail Sector - The report emphasizes the positive adjustments in Yonghui's strategy, focusing on quality retail trends and consumer trust [21]. - The retail sector is expected to see sustainable same-store growth due to improved service and product selection [21]. Key Company Recommendations - Meituan is expected to maintain its long-term competitiveness despite short-term competitive pressures in the food delivery market [21]. - Didi Chuxing is recommended due to its stable market share and significant profit growth potential [21]. - Ctrip Group's performance is projected to continue improving, particularly in international markets [22]. Major News - Luckin Coffee has re-entered the U.S. market with two new stores in Manhattan, targeting students and tourists [26]. - Taobao Flash Sale's subsidy program has significantly boosted sales across various food categories [27]. - Meituan has implemented a pilot program for rider pension insurance subsidies in several cities [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the continuous policy support has driven the expansion of the science - innovation bond market, and the science - innovation bond ETF has been quickly launched. The first batch of 10 science - innovation bond ETFs are scheduled to be issued on July 7, 2025 [1][2][11][13]. - The first - batch science - innovation bond ETFs track three major indices: the AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index, the Shanghai AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index, and the Shenzhen AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index. These indices have different characteristics in terms of return - risk, remaining maturity, weighted duration, bond rating, issuer industry, remaining face value, and collateral ratio [3]. - The expansion of science - innovation bond ETFs brings investment opportunities. Institutions have started to increase their allocation of science - innovation bond index constituent bonds. Three types of potentially beneficial targets can be pre - arranged: targets that are both science - innovation bond index constituent bonds and exchange benchmark market - making varieties, science - innovation bond targets with remaining excess spread protection, and targets with a remaining maturity of 3 - 4 years [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Science - Innovation Bond ETF Launch Background - In 2025, policies on science - innovation bonds were continuously strengthened. In March, the central bank governor proposed to build a "science and technology board" in the bond market. In May, relevant policies were introduced to support the issuance of science - innovation bonds, including expanding the issuer scope, encouraging the creation of science - innovation bond ETFs, and improving the risk - sharing mechanism [12][13]. - Since the new policy was issued, the issuance scale of science - innovation bonds has exceeded 620 billion yuan, and the outstanding scale has reached 2.5 trillion yuan, providing sufficient underlying assets for science - innovation bond ETFs [2]. - The issuers of new science - innovation bonds are mainly central and local state - owned enterprises, with a relatively high proportion of financial enterprises. In terms of industry, they are mainly concentrated in the banking and building decoration industries [17]. 3.2 Science - Innovation Bond ETF Issuance Overview and Index Comparison 3.2.1 First - Batch Science - Innovation Bond ETFs and Index Products - As of July 6, 2025, 10 fund companies plan to issue science - innovation bond ETFs on July 7, 2025. Six companies' ETFs track the AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index, three track the Shanghai AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index, and only Invesco Great Wall's ETF tracks the Shenzhen AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index [22]. - Thirteen fund companies have reported science - innovation bond index funds (non - ETFs), all of which are benchmarked against the Shanghai AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index [24]. 3.2.2 Science - Innovation Bond Index System - Currently, the China Securities Index Company and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange have issued science - innovation bond indices. The China Securities Index Company has issued two series: the CSI Science - Innovation Bond Index series and the Shanghai Science - Innovation Bond Index series. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has issued the Shenzhen Science - Innovation Bond Index [26]. 3.2.3 Main Index Comparison - In terms of index compilation methods, there are differences in the base period, sample space, sampling method, and weighting method among the three indices [30]. - In terms of cumulative returns from December 30, 2022, to July 3, 2025, the AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index and the Shanghai AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index had relatively high and similar returns, while the Shenzhen AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index had relatively lower returns [31]. - In different stages, the Shanghai AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index had better return performance, and the Shenzhen AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index had the lowest annualized volatility, the lowest maximum drawdown, and the highest return - risk ratio in the whole period [34]. - The remaining maturity distributions of the three indices are concentrated in 1 - 5 years, with a small amount of weight in 0 - 1 year and 7 - 10 years. The Shenzhen AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index has a relatively shorter remaining maturity [35]. - The Shanghai AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index has the highest weighted duration, and the Shenzhen AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index has the lowest, which may be part of the reason for the return differences among the indices [36]. - The AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index and the Shanghai AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index have a higher proportion of high - rated constituent bonds than the Shenzhen AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index [39]. - The constituents of the AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index and the Shanghai AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index are mainly distributed in the construction industry, while those of the Shenzhen AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index are mainly in the comprehensive and manufacturing industries [43]. - The issuers of the three indices' constituent bonds are mainly central and local state - owned enterprises. The Shenzhen AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index allocates nearly 5% of public enterprise bonds [46]. - The remaining face values of the three indices' constituent bonds are concentrated between 500 million yuan and 2 billion yuan, and the distribution of the Shenzhen AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index is more dispersed [48]. - The collateral ratios of the three indices' constituent bonds are generally distributed between 80% and 100%, and the Shenzhen AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index has a more concentrated weight in the 70% - 90% range [48]. 3.3 Investment Opportunities in Bonds Brought by Science - Innovation Bond ETFs - Since mid - June, the excess spread of science - innovation bond index constituent bonds has significantly compressed, and there has been a valuation deviation between constituent bonds and non - constituent bonds of the same issuer. The turnover rate of science - innovation bond index constituent bonds has significantly increased, indicating that institutions have started to increase their allocation [5][51][56][57]. - Considering the future expansion of science - innovation bond ETFs, three types of potentially beneficial targets can be pre - arranged: targets that are both science - innovation bond index constituent bonds and exchange benchmark market - making varieties, science - innovation bond targets with remaining positive excess spread, and targets with a remaining maturity of 3 - 4 years [5][61][62].

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 07 月 07 日 各国关税谈判进展如何？ ——政策专题（0707） 随着特朗普政府设定的关键期限临近，全球主要经济体正与美国进行高强度关 税谈判。从各国谈判情况来看，英国、越南已与美国达成协议；印度、柬埔寨、 欧盟预期将与美国达成框架协议/小型协议并在关键期限后进一步谈判；印尼、 泰国、马来西亚仍与美国积极谈判中；日本、韩国谈判进展相对缓慢。 专题报告 相关报告 1、《整治"内卷式"竞争政策 组合的回顾与展望———政策 专题（0701）》2025-07-02 2、《历史上，我国出台过哪些 促消费政策？———扩内需政 策研究专题（一）》2025-04-07 3、《历史上的财税体制改革回 顾——政策专题》2024-06-03 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 郭佳宜 S1090525040003 guojiayi@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 已达成协议：英国是最早与美国达成协议的国家。5 月 8 日，英国与美国宣 布达成贸易协议，即美英经济繁荣协议（EPD）。6 月 16 日，特朗 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases in isobutyraldehyde and TDI, suggesting potential high growth in Q2 performance for specific companies [4]. - The overall chemical sector saw a 0.80% increase in the first week of July, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.60 percentage points [13]. - The dynamic PE for the chemical sector is reported at 24.98 times, which is lower than the average PE of 33.31 times since 2015 [13]. Industry Performance - In the first week of July, 24 sub-industries within the chemical sector experienced growth, with the top five performers being fiberglass (+17%), compound fertilizers (+3.2%), other plastic products (+3.08%), fluorochemicals and refrigerants (+2.97%), and tires (+2.66%) [17]. - Conversely, seven sub-industries declined, with synthetic leather (-4%), petroleum trading (-2.19%), inorganic salts (-1.91%), petroleum processing (-0.57%), and textile chemicals (-0.54%) being the worst performers [17]. Price and Spread Trends - The report lists the top five products with the highest weekly price increases: dichloropropane-white (+8.82%), isobutyraldehyde (+7.2%), TDI (+7.02%), butanone (+6.39%), and sulfur iron ore (+3.82%) [23]. - The top five products with the largest price declines include liquid chlorine (-86.51%), aniline (-7.67%), acetone (-6.69%), propylene oxide (-6.53%), and niacinamide (-6.35%) [23]. - Among the 75 products analyzed for price spreads, the top five with the highest increases were DMF spread (+24.73%), soft foam polyether spread (+21.54%), acetone hydrogenation isopropanol spread (+17.26%), polybutadiene rubber spread (+16.69%), and hard foam polyether spread (+14.62%) [42]. Inventory Changes - Significant inventory changes were noted, with polyester filament increasing by 36.09%, while other notable changes included a decrease in the inventory of chlorpyrifos (-19.05%) and an increase in ethylene glycol (+15.61%) [60]. Recommended Companies - The report suggests focusing on companies expected to see substantial quarter-over-quarter growth in Q2, specifically mentioning Zhongchumai, Sully Co., and Haigong Coatings, as well as Guangxin Materials, which is anticipated to pass certification [4].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Recommended" indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expected outperformance of the industry index against the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the average land acquisition price in sample cities has increased year-on-year, with a notable expansion in the growth rate compared to previous months [1]. - The new housing and second-hand housing transaction areas have shown a year-on-year decline, with the decline in new housing transactions expanding significantly [9][15]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a recovery in demand for new and second-hand homes due to anticipated decreases in mortgage rates, which could narrow the gap between net rental returns and mortgage rates [5]. Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - As of July 3, the year-on-year decline in new housing transactions in sample cities is -34%, which is a worsening of 21 percentage points compared to June [3]. - The new housing transaction area in first-tier cities has seen a year-on-year decline of -41%, while second-tier cities have a decline of -19% [3]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transactions is -9%, with a worsening of 5 percentage points compared to June [3]. - First-tier cities have experienced a shift to negative growth in second-hand housing transactions, indicating a more challenging market environment [3]. Land Acquisition Trends - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative land transaction area in 300 cities has seen a year-on-year decline of -5%, while the average transaction price has increased by 33% [23]. - The report notes that the land premium rate has decreased by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a potential cooling in land market speculation [29]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the real estate market stability remains a key policy goal, with a focus on urban renewal and the optimization of existing policies [5]. - The anticipated recovery in the housing market is expected to be driven by a combination of supply reduction, improved quality of supply, and significant differentiation in buyer profiles [5].

Group 1 - The report highlights a focus on real estate companies such as China Merchants Shekou, China Resources Land, Poly Developments, China Overseas Land, and others, indicating potential investment opportunities in the sector [2] - The overall market capitalization of the real estate sector is noted to be 2712.5 billion, with a circulating market value of 2565.9 billion, reflecting a 3% increase [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the "credit bottom" and "business model bottom" as key indicators for future investment strategies in real estate [7][12] Group 2 - The report predicts a decline in new housing sales by 6.2% year-on-year for 2025, with expectations of a gradual recovery in subsequent years [21][25] - It is anticipated that the new housing price will stabilize first in core urban areas, with a projected average price decrease of 1% for 2025 [38][41] - The report suggests that the supply-demand relationship for new homes is improving, with a notable reduction in supply and an increase in quality, which is expected to lead to price stabilization [36][38] Group 3 - The report indicates that the rental yield and mortgage rate gap is narrowing, which is expected to support the overall housing demand [19][20] - It is projected that the total transaction area for new and second-hand homes will see a year-on-year change of -2% in 2025, followed by a slight increase in 2026 and 2027 [25][28] - The report highlights that the second-hand housing market is experiencing a healthy structure, with a 11% increase in the number of listings compared to the end of 2024 [43][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week of July 06, 2025. It points out that the net financing of local government bonds decreased in the primary market, with long - term issuance proportion declining, the issuance spread narrowing, and the proportion of land reserve investment increasing. In the secondary market, the secondary spreads of 3Y and 15Y local government bonds are advantageous, and the trading volume and turnover rate have slightly increased [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 721 billion yuan, with a repayment of 505 billion yuan and a net financing of 216 billion yuan. The issuance volume and net financing decreased [1]. - **Issuance Term**: The issuance proportion of 10Y local government bonds was the highest at 21%, and the proportion of 10Y and above decreased to 69% compared with last week. The issuance proportion of 20Y local government bonds decreased significantly by about 8 percentage points [1]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: No special refinancing bonds were issued this week. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing implicit debts, totaling 18,246 billion yuan. Among them, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, and Guizhou plan to issue 2,511 billion yuan, 1,148 billion yuan, 1,113 billion yuan, and 1,059 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Issuance Spread**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 8.6bp, narrowing compared with last week. The weighted average issuance spread of 30Y local government bonds was the highest at 12.9bp. Except for the 3Y and 5Y local government bonds, the issuance spreads of other terms narrowed [1]. - **Fund - Raising Direction**: As of the end of this week, the main investment directions of newly - added special bonds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (30%), transportation infrastructure (20%), affordable housing projects (13%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve investment increased by 11.3% compared with 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 7.2% [2]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 30 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, with a total of 2.62 trillion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance in July is 12,796 billion yuan. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the third quarter is 16,585 billion yuan and 9,623 billion yuan respectively. Next week, the planned issuance of local government bonds is 2,250 billion yuan, with a repayment of 1,216 billion yuan and a net financing of 1,034 billion yuan, an increase of 818 billion yuan compared with this week [3]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spread**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3Y and 15Y local government bonds are advantageous, and the secondary spreads of local government bonds over 10Y narrowed significantly. The secondary spreads of 3Y and 15Y local government bonds are relatively high, reaching 16.9bp and 15.8bp respectively. From the historical quantile of the past 3 years, the historical quantile of the secondary spread of 30Y local government bonds is relatively high at 68%. Regionally, the secondary spreads of local government bonds over 20Y and 3 - 5Y in various regions are relatively high [4][5]. - **Trading Situation**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased slightly compared with last week. The turnover rates of local government bonds in Sichuan, Jiangxi, and Fujian are relatively high. The trading volume of local government bonds this week reached 5,475 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.06%. Sichuan had the highest turnover rate at 7.0%, and the turnover rates in Jiangxi, Fujian, Guangdong, Hunan and other places were at relatively high levels, all above 1.0% [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the home appliance industry is "Strongly Recommended" for key companies such as Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Hisense Home Appliances, Supor, and others [2]. Core Insights - The recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam is expected to benefit companies with production capacity in Vietnam, as tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the US have significantly decreased from 46% to 20% [1]. - The US labor market data indicates a mixed outlook, with a decrease in ADP employment numbers and a slight drop in the unemployment rate, which may increase the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1]. Industry Scale - The home appliance industry consists of 88 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 1,835.5 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 1,748.9 billion [3]. Key Company Financials - Midea Group: Market Cap 563.3 billion, 2024 EPS 5.03, 2025 EPS 5.61, 2025 PE 13.1, PB 2.5, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [2]. - Gree Electric Appliances: Market Cap 261.8 billion, 2024 EPS 5.75, 2025 EPS 6.25, 2025 PE 7.5, PB 1.8, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [2]. - Hisense Home Appliances: Market Cap 36.5 billion, 2024 EPS 2.42, 2025 EPS 2.71, 2025 PE 9.7, PB 2.2, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [2]. - Supor: Market Cap 42.0 billion, 2024 EPS 2.80, 2025 EPS 3.03, 2025 PE 17.3, PB 6.1, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [2]. - Other companies such as Zhaochi Co., Juxing Technology, and Stone Technology also received a "Strongly Recommended" rating [2]. Market Performance - The absolute performance of the home appliance sector over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 4.9%, 10.1%, and 30.3% respectively, indicating a strong upward trend [5]. - The relative performance against the benchmark index (CSI 300) is 2.0%, 4.6%, and 14.8% for the same periods [5]. Supply Chain and Production Insights - Major appliance manufacturers like Hisense and TCL are primarily sourcing from Mexico and Vietnam, mitigating tariff impacts [6]. - The shift in TV imports to the US shows that Vietnam's share has increased to 36%, while China's has decreased to 5% [8]. - Companies in the smart home sector, such as Stone Technology, are also benefiting from reduced uncertainties in supply chains due to the Vietnam agreement [6]. Future Outlook - The anticipated rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to boost demand in the tools market, with a 66% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [9][10]. - Companies are advised to focus on production in Vietnam to meet local origin requirements and capitalize on the upcoming peak season for orders [6].

- The report introduces a multi-cycle timing strategy for interest rates, which is constructed using shape recognition algorithms to identify support and resistance lines in interest rate trends. The strategy combines signals from short, medium, and long cycles to form composite timing views. The switching frequency for these cycles is weekly, bi-weekly, and monthly, respectively[10][23][24] - The multi-cycle timing strategy is based on the principle that when at least two cycles show downward breakthroughs of support lines and the interest rate trend is not upward, the portfolio is fully allocated to long-duration bonds. Conversely, when at least two cycles show upward breakthroughs of resistance lines and the interest rate trend is not downward, the portfolio is fully allocated to short-duration bonds. Other configurations include mixed allocations depending on the direction of the interest rate trend[23] - The strategy employs a stop-loss mechanism where the portfolio is adjusted to equal-weighted allocation if the daily excess return falls below -0.5%[23] - The backtesting results of the multi-cycle timing strategy show a long-term annualized return of 6.17% since 2007, with a maximum drawdown of 1.52% and a return-to-drawdown ratio of 2.26. Short-term results since the end of 2023 indicate an annualized return of 7.24%, a maximum drawdown of 1.55%, and a return-to-drawdown ratio of 6.21[23][24] - The strategy has consistently outperformed its benchmark, which is an equal-weighted duration strategy, with a long-term excess return of 1.65% and a short-term excess return of 2.14% since the end of 2023. The excess return-to-drawdown ratio is 1.17 for the long term and 2.29 for the short term[23][24] - Historical performance analysis reveals that the strategy achieved a 100% success rate in generating positive absolute returns and excess returns annually over the past 18 years[24] - The report also tracks the behavior of public bond funds using an improved regression model to estimate the duration and divergence of medium- to long-term pure bond funds. The latest results show that the median duration of public bond funds, including leverage, is 3.51 years, with a 4-week moving average of 3.45 years. This represents an increase of 0.13 years and 0.04 years compared to the previous week, respectively, and places the duration level at the 96.53% percentile over the past five years[6][13][14] - The divergence in public bond fund duration, measured by the cross-sectional standard deviation, is 1.55 years, which is slightly lower than the previous week and is at the 59.07% percentile over the past five years[6][14] - The yield-to-maturity (YTM) data for public bond funds, calculated similarly, shows a median YTM of 1.7%, a 4-week moving average of 1.74%, and an average of 1.79%. Compared to the previous week, the unsmoothed median YTM decreased by 4 basis points, while the smoothed data decreased by 3 basis points, indicating that institutional holdings are near historical lows[18]