Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 13.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and a NON-GAAP net profit of 4.19 billion yuan, up 3.3%, both slightly exceeding market expectations. Domestic leisure travel demand has shown steady improvement, while outbound and international business continues to grow significantly, supported by optimized overseas marketing expenses [1][8]. - The long-term outlook remains positive due to the vast growth potential in overseas markets, with expectations of continued performance improvement as international operations mature and profitability enhances [1][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 44.51 billion yuan - 2024: 53.29 billion yuan (+20%) - 2025E: 61.81 billion yuan (+16%) - 2026E: 70.80 billion yuan (+15%) - 2027E: 80.91 billion yuan (+14%) [3][11]. - The company’s net profit is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 9.92 billion yuan in 2023, reaching 23.99 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 13% [3][11]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 19.11 yuan in 2023 to 37.56 yuan in 2027 [3][11]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 24.2 in 2023 to 12.3 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics over time [3][12]. Business Performance - The company’s revenue breakdown for Q1 2025 includes: - Accommodation bookings: 5.54 billion yuan (+23.2%) - Transportation ticketing: 5.42 billion yuan (+8.4%) - Travel vacation: 0.95 billion yuan (+7.2%) - Business travel management: 0.57 billion yuan (+12.1%) - Other businesses: 1.37 billion yuan (+33.0%) [8]. - The overall gross margin for the reporting period was 80.4%, slightly down by 0.8 percentage points, while the operating profit margin (OPM) was 29.2%, exceeding the expected 27.5% [8]. Market Outlook - The company’s outbound and international business continues to show high growth, with outbound hotel and flight bookings exceeding 120% of pre-pandemic levels, and international OTA platform bookings increasing by over 60% year-on-year [8]. - The report anticipates a 15%-20% growth in outbound business for 2025, driven by high-margin outbound operations [8].

中远海特（600428.SH） 业务量较快增长，关税缓解纸浆船去程运价有望受益 周期/交通运输 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 21 日 事件：1、中远海特发布 24 年报及 25 年一季报，业绩符合预期。2024 年公司 归母净利润 15.3 亿元，同比+44%；25Q1 归母净利润 3.5 亿元，同比+1.6%； 2、中美关税政策超预期缓解，短期集运舱位紧张，有望带动纸浆船市场去程业 务盈利提升。 ❑ 2024 年公司业绩处于前期预告上限，25Q1 业绩增速放缓。受益于红海绕行， 多用途及纸浆市场运价上行；同时汽车运输量价齐升，24 年毛利 36.6 亿元， 同比+73%；毛利率达 21.8%，同比+4.2pcts。因计提道达尔润滑油减值，影 响归母利润 2.7 亿，如剔除减值影响，Q4 归母利润将 5.9 亿，超预期。25Q1 各板块经营稳健，但纸浆运输去程运价环比回落，毛利 10.1 亿，同比+42%， 环比-14%。另外 Q1 管理+财务费用同比有所提升，因此盈利增速放缓。 ❑ 分部业务：24 年机械设备+汽车运输量价齐升,预计 25 年基本面稳健增长。 1）24 年多用途船 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the beauty and personal care industry, highlighting the continued growth of leading domestic brands [2]. Core Insights - The beauty and personal care sector has shown a divergence in performance, with leading domestic brands achieving good growth due to their competitive pricing, differentiated products, and effective online operations [1][10]. - The upcoming 618 shopping festival is expected to further catalyze growth for domestic brands, particularly in the cosmetics sector [1][6]. Summary by Sections Cosmetics - In 2024 and Q1 2025, leading domestic brands continued to show strong growth, with significant revenue increases reported: - Molybdenum Biological: +33% revenue, +32% net profit - Giant Biological: +57% revenue, +42% net profit - Upper Beauty: +62% revenue, +69% net profit [11][13]. - The overall performance of the cosmetics sector is characterized by a mix of growth and decline among various companies, with some like Proya showing resilience in profit despite revenue slowdowns [12][13]. - The report suggests focusing on brands with strong single-product strategies and innovative ingredients, such as Giant Biological and Molybdenum Biological, as well as those with strong brand positioning like Mao Geping [1][6]. Personal Care - The personal care segment has seen robust performance from leading domestic brands, with notable revenue growth in Q1 2025: - Baiya: +30% - Stable Medical: +36% - Hao Yue Care: +42% [6][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product upgrades and channel expansion for these brands, which have outperformed OEM companies [1][6]. - The ongoing trend of online expansion and the shift towards mid-to-high-end branding remains strong, with companies like Baiya and Stable Medical showing promising developments [6][12]. Market Trends - The overall market for cosmetics in early 2025 showed a slight increase in retail sales, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% in the first four months [23]. - Online platforms like Tmall and Douyin have seen varying performance, with Douyin showing higher growth rates in certain categories compared to Tmall [26][29]. Key Brand Performance - Key brands have demonstrated significant growth in both Tmall and Douyin platforms, with notable increases in GMV for brands like Mao Geping and Kefu Mei [33]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, with domestic brands increasingly capturing market share from international brands due to their pricing and innovative marketing strategies [1][6].

证券研究报告 | 基金研究（公募） 2025 年 5 月 20 日 群策群力，锚定绝对收益目标 天弘基金固收+基金分析 天弘基金旗下固收+业务追求绝对收益，以回撤作为产品定位目标，并以此设定资 产配置中枢。公司实行团队制管理，在资产配置、行业配置和个股选择等关键环节 倾向群策群力。稳健型和积极型固收+基金（详细划分标准参考全文）成立以来整 体实现了较好的收益风险性价比，大部分年份实现了平均正收益。本报告将针对天 弘基金固收+业务产品布局、业绩表现、团队建设、投资风格等方面展开分析。 ❑ 风险提示：本报告仅作为投资参考，基金过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，亦不构 成投资收益的保证或投资建议。 徐燕红 S1090524120003 xuyanhong@cmschina.com.cn 高艺 S1090524020001 gaoyi2@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 天弘含权债基发展概况：天弘基金布局含权债基时间较早，产品线在 2021 年 迎来规模大发展，主要为二级债基贡献。2021 年之前主要被机构持有，之后 个人增持相对较多，目前机构与个人持有份额各半。 ❑ 天弘固收+基金布局情况：天弘 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [3]. Core Insights - The banking sector has consistently outperformed the market in most years since the end of 2008, with a cumulative return significantly higher than that of the broader market indices [6][10]. - The report highlights that the banking sector benefits from a shift in institutional investment styles, favoring long-term performance and actual profitability, which is expected to lead to a valuation recovery for the sector [6][10]. - High-profit growth banks have shown exceptional performance, with a cumulative increase of 2322% and an annualized return of 21.5% since the end of 2008, indicating the potential for higher returns through selective investment within the banking sector [6][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Scale - The banking sector comprises 41 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 9875 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 9784.5 billion [3]. Performance Metrics - The absolute performance of the banking sector over different time frames is as follows: 1 month: 4.7%, 6 months: 11.8%, and 12 months: 24.3% [5]. - The banking index has outperformed the market indices, with the A-share banking index showing a cumulative increase of 404% and an annualized return of 10.4% since 2018 [6][10]. Historical Returns - From 2008 to the present, the banking sector has outperformed the CSI 300 Total Return Index in 10 out of 17 years, demonstrating a high success rate for investments in this sector [6][10]. - The report provides detailed cumulative return data, showing that the banking sector's returns have generally exceeded those of the broader market indices in most years since 2008 [12][14].

证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 05 月 20 日 业务策略和准则实施差异导致分化 保险行业 2025 年一季报综述 总量研究/非银行金融 主要上市险企 2025 年一季报均已披露，寿险 NBV 延续增长，财险 COR 明显 改善，投资表现各异，净利润和净资产分化加剧。随着市场风险偏好持续上行 和公募新规强化业绩比较基准的约束作用，大幅欠配的保险板块有望显著受益。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 92 | 1.8 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 5744.9 | 6.7 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 5494.6 | 7.0 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 5.6 -6.2 28.2 相对表现 2.8 -3.7 22.8 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 0 20 40 60 May/24 Sep/24 Dec/24 Apr/25 (%) 非银行金融 沪深300 相关报告 1、《证券行业 2025 年一季报综述— 市场底部牢固，业绩稳增无虞》 2025-05-05 2、《保险行业系列政策点评—渠道 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company is expected to overcome operational bottlenecks and improve profitability, moving towards becoming a comprehensive supplier of contrast agents [1][7]. - The management efficiency has improved significantly under the current chairman, with revenue per employee increasing from 550,000 RMB in 2015 to 1,340,000 RMB in 2025 [7][19]. - The company is entering a phase of increased production capacity for iodine contrast agents, with capital expenditures (CAPEX) peak passed and utilization rates expected to rise [7][19]. - The domestic and international demand for contrast agents is expanding, with the company positioned as a key supplier in the iodine contrast agent market [7][27]. Financial Data and Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 0.7 billion RMB in 2025, 2.3 billion RMB in 2026, and 3.5 billion RMB in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 58, 18, and 11 [8][75]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 2.196 billion RMB in 2023 to 3.516 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15% [8][85]. - The company’s operating profit is forecasted to recover from a loss of 0.054 billion RMB in 2024 to a profit of 0.277 billion RMB in 2026 [8][85]. Market Dynamics - The global market for contrast agents is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.8%, with iodine contrast agent demand expected to double in the next decade [7][31]. - The supply of iodine is constrained, with major producers unable to significantly increase output, maintaining a tight balance between supply and demand [22][27]. - The company is positioned as a leading supplier in the iodine contrast agent market, with a comprehensive product range and established customer relationships [7][34]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The company has completed the construction of over 2,400 tons of raw material capacity, with approximately 1,800 tons certified under major quality systems [7][37]. - The company plans to utilize funds from a recent capital increase to expand production capacity for non-ionic CT contrast agents and iodine compounds [37][38]. Competitive Position - The company has a significant market share in iodine contrast agents, with a focus on expanding its product offerings and enhancing its competitive edge through strategic investments [7][34]. - The domestic procurement policies are expected to benefit the company, as it has a strong cost and scale advantage in raw materials [7][57]. International Expansion - The company is leveraging its international platform, IMAX, to enhance its global presence, with sales revenue from overseas operations increasing by 60% year-on-year [72]. - The company anticipates completing EU-GMP certification for its Shanghai facility in 2025, facilitating further international market penetration [72][75].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 20 日 万科 A（000002.SZ） 25Q1 业绩受开发毛利率进一步下行拖累，大股东持续 支持帮助公司妥善化解到期债务 （1）25Q1 业绩受开发毛利率进一步下行拖累仍为亏损；（2）开发业务方面， 公司积极开展资源盘活，25Q1 实现盘活回款 24 笔，合计 40.9 亿；（3）经 营业务方面，维持稳健发展；（4）债务层面，积极通过资产交易及大股东借款 应对短期债券偿付压力。预计 25E/26E/27E EPS 分别为-1.35/-0.52/-0.14 元/ 股，当前股价对应 PE 分别为-5.0/-13.2/-49.2，综合考虑公司销售仍面临下行压 力以及公司截止目前积极处置及抵押资产以应对公开债务偿付的情况，维持"增 持"评级，投资人可关注公司后续债务化解进度 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 465739 | 343176 | 237689 | 169777 | ...

证券研究报告|行业简评报告 2025 年 05 月 19 日 NVLink Fusion 助力多体系融合，持续布局机器人等领域 英伟达 COMPUTEX 跟踪报告 TMT 及中小盘/电子 事件： 英伟达 CEO 黄仁勋 5 月 19 日在 COMPUTEX 2025 大会发表主题演讲，介绍 公司在 AI 基础设施和"物理 AI"领域最新进展，以及 Blackwell 等硬件平台与 机器人等技术前沿应用。综合演讲及材料信息，总结要点如下： 评论： 1、构建智能基础设施迈向物理 AI，5G/6G 以及量子计算持续推进。 英伟达表示未来智能基础设施建立在电力和互联网基础上，AI 从感知和推理向 自主决策演进，未来将实现物理 AI，AI 驱动的机器人执行现实世界任务，英伟 达发展历程从芯片公司到 AI 基础设施公司，ShonaAriel、Kulitho、DynamoQDF 等函数库，科学领域、物理领域加速应用，持续推进 AI 向 5G/6G、量子计算 领域迈进。 2、GB300 推理性能提升 1.5 倍，NV Link Fusion 提供半定制芯片平台。 1）GB300：英伟达 25Q3 将推出 GB300，在保持相 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 05 月 19 日 政策不会短视 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 18 期） 频率：每周 尽管中美阶段性互降关税，但国内政策执行进度不会就此放缓。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《四月金融数据怎么看》 2025-05-15 2、《中美阶段性互降关税有何 影响—显微镜下的中国经济 （2025 年第 17 期）》2025-05- 12 3、《谈判的底气——宏观与大 类资产周报》2025-05-11 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 从上周的市场表现看，投资者普遍预期由于中美阶段性互降关税的缘故，短 期基本面将好于预期，这意味着 2 季度内政策显著加码的可能性下降。今天 公布的 4 月经济数据也显示国内工业生产、消费和投资形势也并没受到此前 双方高额关税的影响，数据韧性较强，预计 2 季度经济增速有较大可能性稳 定在全年经济增长目标附近。尽管如此，我们认为 2 季度政策执行层面不会 受上述因素 ...