证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 28 日 齐鲁银行（601665.SH） 业绩高增，成长银行 总量研究/银行 齐鲁银行披露 2024 年度报告及 2025 年一季报，2024 全年营收、PPOP、归母 利润同比增速分别为 4.55%、3.05%、17.77%；2025Q1 营收、PPOP、归母 净利润同比分别增长 4.72%、4.36%、16.47%，归母净利润保持 16%以上的高 增长，业绩成长性较强。从累计业绩驱动看，24A 规模扩张、中收、其他非息、 拨备计提形成主要正贡献，净息差、成本收入比上升、有效税率上升形成拖累。 25Q1 净息差业绩拖累下降，其他非息业绩贡献转负，拨备计提依旧形成正贡献。 核心观点： 亮点：（1）资负扩表继续提速。资产端，24 年/25Q1 生息资产同比增速分别 为 13.65%/15.71%，其中，24 年/25Q1 贷款同比增速分别为 12.31%/12.60%， 贷款增速相对稳定，个人贷款增长偏弱，考虑到 24 年个人贷款不良率上升较多， 预计公司个人贷款结构有所调整，对公贷款 25Q1 末依旧保持 18%的高增长。 另外，公司投资类资产 25Q1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Great Wall Motors [3][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 40.02 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.75 billion yuan, down 45.7% [1][6]. - Despite short-term performance pressure, the company is launching competitive new models and enhancing its technological capabilities [6]. - The company is actively pursuing collaborations to create a new ecosystem for intelligent mobility [6]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Great Wall Motors achieved a gross margin of 17.8% and a net margin of 4.4% [6]. - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 173.21 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 26%, and expected to reach 340.64 billion yuan by 2027 [7][33]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 14.62 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 15% [7][33]. Sales and Market Position - The company sold 257,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, a decline of 6.7% year-on-year, while overseas sales decreased by 2.0% to 91,000 units [6]. - New energy vehicle sales increased by 5.7% year-on-year, reaching 63,000 units [6]. Product Development and Innovation - The company launched several new models in 2025, including the Tank 300 and the second-generation Haval Xiaolong MAX, which features advanced driving technology [6]. - Great Wall Motors is focusing on product upgrades and technological accumulation to enhance competitiveness [6]. Strategic Collaborations - The company has formed strategic partnerships with various technology firms to innovate in areas such as AI and intelligent vehicle manufacturing [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 159 CNY, while the current stock price is 125.36 CNY, indicating a potential upside of over 25% [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on high-quality development and has set a conservative growth target of 15% for 2024, prioritizing channel health over aggressive expansion. This strategy has led to a release of reporting pressures as expected [1][5]. - For 2025, the company aims for steady progress while increasing its dividend payout ratio to reward shareholders, with projected dividend yields of 5.3% and 6% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [1][5]. - The report highlights that the company’s cash flow quality is better than the apparent growth rate, with significant increases in sales cash receipts and a reduction in receivables [5]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue and net profit of 31.2 billion CNY and 13.47 billion CNY, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 3.2% and 1.7% [5]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a decline in revenue and net profit, down 16.9% and 29.9% year-on-year, attributed to year-end discounts and increased production costs [5]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 87.6%, slightly down from the previous year, with a net profit margin of 43.2% [5]. Product Performance - The company reported revenue of 27.59 billion CNY from mid-to-high-end liquor products in 2024, with a volume increase of 14.4% but a price decrease of 10.2% [5]. - The report notes that the company is focusing on inventory digestion and the expansion of mid-tier products, which has positively impacted sales [5]. Dividend Policy - The company has announced a dividend payout plan for 2024-2026, with a minimum payout ratio of 65%, 70%, and 75% for the respective years, ensuring a minimum cash dividend of 8.5 billion CNY (before tax) each year [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, highlighting their cost advantages and strong performance capabilities [3][58]. Core Insights - The pig farming industry is experiencing significant overselling, with seasonal price weakness in pig prices, but overall performance is better than market expectations. Factors such as frozen product inventory and secondary fattening still have room for improvement, indicating that the bottom of pig prices remains supported [1][58]. - In March 2025, the total number of pigs sold by 15 listed pig companies reached 17.69 million, a year-on-year increase of 40%, marking a historical high for monthly sales [40][58]. - The report emphasizes that the supply of breeding sows is expected to grow slowly in 2024, leading to limited growth in pig supply in 2025. The cost variance among different farming entities remains significant, allowing high-quality pig companies to achieve considerable profits and continue to repair their balance sheets [58]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Profitability and Production Capacity - Pig prices continue to be weak, while piglet prices remain strong. In March 2025, the average price of live pigs was 14.6 yuan/kg, showing a slight decrease year-on-year and month-on-month. The price of piglets was 610 yuan/head, reflecting a year-on-year increase [11][15]. - The profitability of pig farming continues to narrow, with the average profit for self-bred pigs at 42.4 yuan/head, down 39% month-on-month. The number of breeding sows decreased by 1.0% quarter-on-quarter [15][16]. - Sample companies showed significant overselling in March, with actual sales exceeding planned sales by 6.8%. The frozen product inventory has increased seasonally, indicating a rise in storage willingness among slaughter enterprises [23][58]. Section 2: Sales Growth and Piglet Volume - The total number of pigs sold by listed companies in March 2025 was 17.69 million, with a notable increase in piglet sales, which reached 2.62 million, a year-on-year increase of 196% [40][41]. - The average weight of pigs sold in March was 124 kg, reflecting a slight increase year-on-year and month-on-month, driven by the narrowing price gap [55][58]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the pig farming industry is expected to maintain support at the bottom price level, with a focus on companies with clear cost advantages and strong performance capabilities. The recommended companies include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional attention to Shennong Group and Dongrui Co [58].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the wind power and container coating industries, having achieved significant domestic market shares of first and second place respectively. It is currently focusing on expanding into the ship coating sector, having obtained certification for the most challenging and highest revenue-generating ship bottom paint, which is expected to elevate its operational performance [1][7]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 2,139 million yuan in 2024, reflecting an 88% year-on-year growth, followed by a slight decline to 1,924 million yuan in 2025, and then a recovery to 2,185 million yuan in 2026, with a further increase to 2,661 million yuan in 2027 [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 211 million yuan in 2024, with a growth of 26% compared to the previous year, and is projected to continue growing to 317 million yuan in 2026 and 424 million yuan in 2027 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.95 yuan in 2024, increasing to 2.16 yuan in 2025 and reaching 2.94 yuan in 2026 [3]. Company Overview - The company, established in 2002, has become a leading supplier in the domestic wind power blade and container coating sectors. It has been actively involved in the research and development of environmentally friendly coatings since 2010, achieving significant market share growth in the container coating industry [11][19]. - The company has a stable core team with extensive experience in the coating industry, emphasizing long-term research and development investments. As of the end of 2024, the company holds 100 patents, including 36 invention patents [29][30]. Industry Outlook - The wind power industry is expected to experience a resurgence, with significant increases in domestic wind power bidding data in 2024, laying the groundwork for intensive installations in 2025-2026. The demand and pricing for wind power coatings are anticipated to rise [7][29]. - The ship coating market is projected to grow steadily, driven by new ship construction and maintenance of existing vessels. The global market size for ship coatings is estimated to be around 6 billion USD in 2023, with strong growth potential in the coming years [7][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company experienced a loss in 2024 due to strategic adjustments and significant goodwill impairment. However, there is an expectation for performance recovery in 2025, supported by a proposed employee stock ownership plan aimed at achieving profitability and a net profit growth target of no less than 10% for 2026-2027 [7][8]. - The beauty division is showing promising online growth, which is expected to contribute positively to the company's performance in 2025 [7]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 56.79 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13.93%, and a net loss of 8.33 billion [7][8]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 17.04 billion, down 10.59% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.17 billion, reflecting a 15.25% decline [7]. - The company anticipates a recovery in net profit for 2025, projecting 3.30 billion, which represents a turnaround from losses, followed by 3.77 billion in 2026 and 4.24 billion in 2027, with respective growth rates of 14% and 12% [7][8]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows that the personal care division generated 23.79 billion, down 3.42%, while the beauty division saw a significant decline of 29.81% to 10.50 billion [7]. - Online sales for 2024 amounted to 25.39 billion, a decrease of 9.66%, while offline sales were 31.36 billion, down 16.97% [7]. Cash Flow and Financial Ratios - The operating cash flow improved significantly in 2024, reaching 2.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 164.86% [7]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio stood at 34.2%, indicating a stable financial position [3][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 9.093 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.008 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.38% and 0.81% respectively [7][14] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.147 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year growth of 63.83% [7][9] - The company has seen a strong growth in land cable business and a record high in submarine cable orders, indicating robust demand in the market [14][15] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 7.310 billion yuan in 2023 to 11.955 billion yuan in 2025E, with a CAGR of 31% [2][38] - The net profit is expected to increase from 1.000 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.656 billion yuan in 2025E, reflecting a growth rate of 64% [2][38] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to decrease from 34.9 in 2023 to 21.1 in 2025E, indicating improved valuation metrics [2][38] Business Performance - The land cable system revenue reached 5.416 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 41.52%, contributing 59.57% to total revenue [22] - The submarine cable system revenue was 2.778 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight increase of 0.41% year-on-year [14] - The company has a strong order backlog, with approximately 8.827 billion yuan in submarine cable orders as of March 21, 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of about 180% [15][16] Market Outlook - The domestic market for offshore wind power still has significant room for growth, with expectations of a surge in installations in the near term [15] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for offshore wind projects, with a comprehensive solution for marine engineering [16][22] - The company plans to enhance its product offerings in high-grade land cables, which could improve profit margins in the future [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 15.458 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.06%, with net profit increasing by 31.42% to 2.049 billion yuan [8] - The company reported a strong order growth of 21.41% in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 3.227 billion yuan [8] - The overseas business showed significant growth, with revenue increasing by 44.7% to 3.12 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 20.2% of total revenue [8] - Domestic business revenue grew by 20.7% to 12.34 billion yuan in 2024, with an improved gross margin [8] - The company added new orders worth 21.457 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29.94% [8] - The company has a strong cash position with approximately 2.7 billion yuan in net cash and a debt ratio of 46.09% [8] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 12.46 billion yuan in 2023 to 18.637 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 21% [3] - The net profit is expected to increase from 1.559 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.578 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a CAGR of 26% [3] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 36.3 in 2023 to 22.0 in 2025, indicating improving valuation [3] - The company’s ROE is expected to rise from 15.9% in 2023 to 19.1% in 2025, showcasing enhanced profitability [3] Business Performance - The company has successfully expanded its product offerings, moving from a single business model to a comprehensive product system that includes various electrical equipment [8] - The management has demonstrated strong capabilities in navigating through industry cycles and expanding overseas markets [8] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the global trend of increasing investments in power grid construction [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Alibaba, JD.com, Pinduoduo, and Vipshop in the e-commerce sector, as well as for Meituan in local life services, and for Didi Chuxing in shared mobility [17][19][20]. Core Insights - The e-commerce sector's competitive landscape is better than expected, with leading companies trading at low valuations, making them attractive investment opportunities [5][17]. - The OTA sector, represented by Trip.com, shows strong growth in outbound travel and overseas business, with a recommendation to focus on the recovery of outbound travel and market expansion [5][19]. - In local life services, Meituan demonstrates significant profit elasticity and growth potential, with a strong recommendation based on its core business performance [5][18]. - The shared mobility sector, particularly Didi Chuxing, is expected to stabilize its market share and has substantial profit growth potential, warranting a strong recommendation [5][19]. E-commerce Sector Summary - The e-commerce industry is experiencing a competitive recovery, with major players like Alibaba, JD.com, Pinduoduo, and Vipshop recommended for investment due to their low valuations and expected profit growth [5][17]. - Recent changes in refund policies across multiple platforms, including the cancellation of "refund only" options, are expected to impact merchant operations positively [5][28]. OTA Sector Summary - Trip.com reported a revenue increase of 23.4% year-on-year, with a focus on domestic and outbound business growth, projecting a revenue growth of 14%-15% for 2025 [19][21]. Local Life Services Summary - Meituan's core business profits exceeded expectations, with projections for continued growth in its core operations and international expansion [18]. Shared Mobility Summary - Didi Chuxing is positioned for stable growth with a focus on user retention and supply chain efficiency, with expectations for significant profit margins in the coming years [19]. Restaurant and Tourism Sector Summary - The restaurant and tourism index decreased by 1.34%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, while the retail sector index increased by 0.69%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite [5][6]. Key Company Performance - JD.com reported a significant increase in daily orders for its food delivery service, surpassing 10 million orders, indicating strong market demand [5][27]. - The report highlights the performance of various companies within the restaurant and tourism sector, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like Zhongxin Tourism and Jiuhua Tourism [8][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 4.75% in Q1, while profit improved by 0.24%, indicating pressure on revenue but an enhancement in profitability [1][6] - The acquisition of a 51% stake in Weizimei through a combination of equity and cash is expected to accelerate the company's diversification in product categories and channels [1][6] - The company has been strengthening its competitive advantages and improving channel management and internal efficiency, positioning itself for a recovery in 2025 amid a stable recovery in consumer spending [1][6] - Current market expectations are low, and the company's valuation is at a historical low, suggesting a potential opportunity for investment [1][6] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 total revenue was 713 million, down 4.75% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 272 million, up 0.24% year-on-year [6][8] - The gross margin improved to 56.0%, an increase of 3.85 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower costs of raw materials [6][8] - The company plans to enhance shareholder returns through increased dividends as it enters a mature phase [1][6] Financial Projections - Projected total revenue for 2023 is 2,450 million, with a year-on-year decline of 4%, followed by a slight recovery in 2024 with a projected revenue of 2,387 million [2][15] - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 827 million in 2023, with a projected decline of 8% year-on-year [7][15] - EPS is projected to be 0.72 in 2023, with a gradual increase to 0.79 by 2027 [15]