行业评级：看好 表：黄金行业上市公司的自产金产量预测 | | 表：黄金行业上市公司的自产金产量预测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司 | 黄金资源量 | 总市值（亿元） | | | | 全口径自产金（吨） | | | | 25E-27E | | 单吨产量市值（亿元/吨） | 单吨资源量市值（亿元） | | PE | | | （2024；吨） | 2025-06-16 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 产量CAGR | 2024 | 2027E | 2024A | 2025E | 2027E | | 山金国际 | 277 | 569 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 1 3 | 1 5 | 34% | 8 1 | 3 9 | 2.1 | 1 8 | 1 2 | | 招金矿业 | 1304 | 672 ...

Investment Highlights - Financial performance shows commercial expansion and profit improvement, with 2024 sales revenue for 17 commercialized innovative drug companies reaching 91.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 35% [4][25] - R&D investment for 32 sample innovative drug companies is projected to be 67.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.23%, indicating a sustained trend of local innovation investment [4][13] - The sales expense ratio and R&D expense ratio for 22 sample innovative drug companies have been continuously declining from 2021 to 2024, which is expected to drive profit improvement for companies like BeiGene and Innovent [4][15] MNC Strategies - The report highlights the prominent "Chinaization" of IO+ADC strategies, with multinational corporations (MNCs) having strong first-generation IO pipeline layouts, but second-generation IO has not seen significant breakthroughs [4][27] - MNCs are increasingly relying on local innovative drugs as key pipeline assets, with many future potential products being sourced from Chinese companies [4][30] - MNCs are well-capitalized, with ample cash flow supporting the continued enrichment of their pipelines, particularly in the context of the evolving IO+ADC landscape [4][39] Domestic Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the global innovation and valuation reshaping of Chinese drugs, driven by supportive domestic policies and increasing international competitiveness [4][45] - The value of BD transactions continues to validate the competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs, with 2024 projected BD transaction income reaching 5.7 billion USD, accounting for 20% of global cooperation authorization total upfront payments [4][45][47] - The commercialization of major products is accelerating, with a rich NDA reserve expected to drive further growth in domestic commercialization [4][50]

Market Overview - On June 17, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.04%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.09%, the STAR Market 50 dropped by 0.8%, the CSI 1000 declined by 0.1%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.36%, and the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.34% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on June 17 were coal (+0.89%), utilities (+0.82%), oil and petrochemicals (+0.72%), transportation (+0.52%), and retail (+0.51%). The worst-performing sectors were pharmaceuticals and biotechnology (-1.44%), beauty and personal care (-1.24%), media (-1.22%), textiles and apparel (-0.75%), and light industry manufacturing (-0.67%) [3][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on June 17 was 1,237.1 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 6.302 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Key Insights - The report emphasizes the selection of "the rose of time" in the current market, recommending improvement-oriented banks in economically developed regions of A-shares: Pudong Development Bank, Shanghai Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Jiangsu Bank. For Hong Kong stocks, it suggests focusing on value-oriented state-owned banks: Hong Kong state-owned banks, CITIC Bank, and China Everbright Bank [5] - The market sentiment indicates concerns that bank stocks may have entered the "second half" of their cycle, but the report argues that the current market is the beginning of a long cycle rather than its end. The underlying logic for this cycle is driven by a low interest rate environment and the revaluation of RMB assets [5][6] - The report highlights a shift in strategy, advocating for a bull market mindset when participating in the current significant bank stock market, with a focus on selecting individual stocks based on microeconomic factors [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The future growth of the film market's non-ticket revenue is expected to accelerate, with film derivatives being a significant component of this revenue [1] - Leading companies like Light Media are projected to have optimistic sales outlooks for film and other entertainment derivatives, with the "Nezha" series expected to generate substantial sales [1][2] - The potential market capitalization increase from film derivative sales is estimated to be between 75 billion to 200 billion yuan, based on various assumptions regarding sales and profit-sharing [2][3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the increasing importance of non-ticket revenue in the film market, particularly focusing on film derivatives as a key growth area [1] Company Analysis - Light Media's chairman revealed that the overseas box office for "Nezha" is expected to exceed 100 million USD, marking a significant achievement for Chinese films [1] - The "Nezha" series has already achieved hundreds of billions in sales from derivatives, with projections suggesting it could reach over a trillion yuan [1] Financial Projections - The report estimates that a sales figure of 100 billion yuan in film derivatives could correspond to a revenue of 50 billion yuan for related companies, with an assumed profit-sharing ratio of 5%-10% [2] - Valuation estimates for film derivative sales suggest a market capitalization increase of 75 billion to 200 billion yuan, with a neutral assumption placing it at approximately 131.3 billion yuan [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading film derivative companies such as Light Media, while also suggesting attention to other key players in the film and animation sectors, including Guomai Culture, Shanghai Film, and Wanda Film [3]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 17 日 浙商早知道 大势：6 月 16 日上证指数上涨 0.35%，沪深 300 上涨 0.25%，科创 50 下跌 0.21%，中证 1000 上涨 0.68%，创业板 指上涨 0.66%，恒生指数上涨 0.7%。 行业：6 月 16 日表现最好的行业分别是传媒（+2.7%)、通信（+2.11%)、计算机（+1.99%)、房地产（+1.85%)、综 合（+1.76%)，表现最差的行业分别是农林牧渔（-0.76%)、美容护理（-0.49%)、有色金属（-0.43%)、纺织服饰（-0.33%)、 医药生物（-0.28%)。 资金：6 月 16 日全 A 总成交额为 12436 亿元，南下资金净流入 57.43 亿港元。 2025 年 06 月 17 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 【浙商电子 王凌涛/厉秋迪】清溢光电（688138）公司深度：佛山基地扩产顺利，技术创新+国产替代有望驱动公 司快速成长——20250616 http:/ ...

Economic Performance - In May, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations[2] - The service industry production index rose by 6.2% year-on-year in May, indicating positive service sector performance[13] Consumer Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in May grew by 6.4% year-on-year, up from 5.1% in April, driven by the early "618" shopping festival[19] - Major categories such as home appliances and communication equipment saw significant growth, with home appliance sales increasing by 53.0% year-on-year[23] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.7% year-on-year from January to May, below the market expectation of 4.0%[4] - Infrastructure investment increased by 5.6% year-on-year, while real estate development investment declined by 10.7%[4] Employment and Labor Market - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in May was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a stable employment situation[6] - The job market remains sensitive to external economic conditions, with policies aimed at supporting key demographics such as graduates and migrant workers[6] Market Outlook - The second quarter is expected to see a slight economic slowdown compared to the first quarter, with potential non-linear characteristics due to external uncertainties[1] - A dual bull market in stocks and bonds is anticipated in the second half of the year, supported by easing U.S.-China trade relations and risk mitigation funds[1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.427 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, slightly exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations, driven by improvements in same-store sales domestically and continued rapid growth overseas [1] - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 587 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%, falling short of Bloomberg consensus expectations of 661 million yuan, primarily due to ongoing overseas store expansion and increased financial expenses [1] - Domestic revenue for MINISO reached 2.494 billion yuan in Q1 2025, up 9.1% year-on-year, with same-store sales showing improvement [2] - Overseas revenue for MINISO was 1.592 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.3%, although growth rates slowed due to high base effects [3] - TOP TOY achieved domestic revenue of 340 million yuan in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 58.9% [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 20.565 billion yuan, 24.425 billion yuan, and 28.915 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.0%, 18.8%, and 18.4% [5] - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period is projected to be 2.737 billion yuan, 3.332 billion yuan, and 4.152 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 4.6%, 21.8%, and 24.6% [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated to be 14.7x, 12.0x, and 9.7x, respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is set to expand its production capacity significantly with a total investment of 3.5 billion RMB, focusing on high-precision and high-end semiconductor photomasks, which is expected to drive rapid growth [2][68]. - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with projected revenues of 1.434 billion RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 29% [3][10]. - The domestic photomask market is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing demand for high-precision products and the trend of localization in the semiconductor industry [8][34]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the largest domestic photomask manufacturer, established in 1997, and has been rapidly expanding its operations, with revenues increasing from 487 million RMB in 2020 to an expected 1.112 billion RMB in 2024 [8][25]. - The company has established subsidiaries to independently operate its semiconductor business, indicating a strategic focus on this high-growth area [15][19]. Market Dynamics - The global photomask market is projected to reach 58 billion USD by 2025, with the domestic market expected to reach 100 billion RMB, driven by advancements in AI, new energy vehicles, and advanced packaging [2][59]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing shift of the panel industry to mainland China and the increasing demand for domestic alternatives in the photomask sector [34][42]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is forecasted to grow to 2.161 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 26% from 2025 to 2027 [3][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 402 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3][10]. Production Capacity Expansion - The company plans to add an annual production capacity of 2,665 high-precision photomasks and 25,120 high-end semiconductor photomasks following the completion of its new production base [2][68]. - The first phase of the production base construction has been completed, which will enhance the company's ability to meet the growing demand for high-precision photomasks [68]. Technological Advancements - The company is actively investing in high-end photomask technologies such as HTM and PSM, which are crucial for producing advanced photomasks [54][58]. - The development of photomasks for 130nm to 65nm processes is underway, indicating the company's commitment to advancing its technological capabilities [58][69].

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report recommends Li Auto-W (02015) due to the resilient performance of the L series and the launch of the i8 model, which is expected to initiate a new product cycle [4] - The sales of the i series models are anticipated to exceed expectations, driven by enhanced charging infrastructure and product design that alleviates range anxiety [4] - Revenue projections for Li Auto from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at RMB 1700.09 billion, RMB 2255.53 billion, and RMB 2907.42 billion respectively, with net profit forecasts of RMB 89.89 billion, RMB 149.26 billion, and RMB 195.33 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11.9%, 66.1%, and 30.9% [4] Group 2: Industry Insights - The traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) industry is characterized by high cash reserves and stable profit growth, similar to the banking sector, with minimal impact from overseas situations [6] - The report anticipates a significant improvement in revenue and profit growth for the TCM industry in Q2 2025 compared to Q1, with continued growth expected in H2 2025 [6] - The report highlights a shift in market perception towards TCM, emphasizing its value in a context of trade protection and economic slowdown, suggesting that TCM's configuration value deserves attention [6] Group 3: Consumer Sector Analysis - The consumer sector, particularly in dining and beverage, is expected to recover, with leading brands in fast food and tea drinks projected to see positive same-store sales growth in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 [7] - The report notes that despite ongoing pressure on domestic consumption, the restaurant sector remains a relatively safe investment, with opportunities for valuation increases [7] - The analysis indicates that the market's focus on growth rates, regardless of low base effects, reflects a willingness to invest in growth stories within the consumer sector [7]

Economic Overview - The GDP weekly high-frequency prosperity index as of June 14 is 5.6%, remaining stable compared to the previous week's revised value of 5.6%, indicating relative economic stability[1] - The historical tracking of the GDP weekly high-frequency prosperity index shows a good fit with monthly GDP trends, particularly in predicting turning points for 2024[1] Production Indicators - High-frequency indicators for both the service and industrial sectors are generally stable compared to the previous week[1] - The industrial weekly prosperity index remains unchanged at 8.0%, while the service sector index slightly decreased to 3.8%[10] Demand Indicators - Consumer demand shows signs of recovery, with the consumption high-frequency index rising significantly to 5.5% from 4.8%[10] - Infrastructure investment appears weak, with rebar apparent demand dropping to 220.3 thousand tons, down from 228.7 thousand tons[10] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities increased to 172.2 million square meters, a 24% week-on-week rise[54] Export Performance - Container throughput remains high, with 639.1 thousand standard containers reported, indicating stable export levels despite a slight decrease from the previous week[63] Price Trends - The agricultural wholesale price index decreased by 0.45% week-on-week, with pork prices dropping by 1.45%[71] - The overall price pressure continues, with production material prices also showing a slight decline of 0.2%[71] Risk Factors - Economic structural transformation may lead to a decline in the fitting degree of traditional economic indicators[2] - Geopolitical tensions may exceed expectations, posing additional risks to economic stability[2]