1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the next week, the main focus of the funding situation will shift to month - end liquidity. The net payment of government bonds will increase by over 70 billion yuan. Attention should be paid to the central bank's end - of - quarter OMO injection and the MLF roll - over operation on the 25th. The funding situation is expected to remain balanced and slightly loose [1]. - In the next week, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit (CDs) will exceed one trillion yuan, presenting significant supply pressure. However, the issuance pressure of CDs is expected to gradually ease. As the month - end approaches, the funding situation may fluctuate, and CD yields may continue to show a volatile trend [1]. - Funds remain the main buyers of interest - rate bonds. In the past week, the net purchase scale was approximately 141.2 billion yuan, showing a significant increase in volume [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Liquidity Tracking 3.1.1 Fund Review - From June 16 to June 20, 2025, 858.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase funds and 182 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF matured. The central bank injected 960.3 billion yuan of 7 - day funds, resulting in a net weekly fund withdrawal of 7.99 billion yuan. The OMO stock decreased to 960.3 billion yuan. The central bank conducted a 400 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation this week [10]. - During the statistical period, the RMB/USD spot exchange rate depreciated by 1.86 basis points due to the uncertainty of US tariffs and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut [10]. - In terms of government bond progress, based on the issuance start - date, the net financing of treasury bonds in the past week was 135.07 billion yuan, and the net financing since the beginning of the year was 3.23916 trillion yuan, completing 48.6% of the annual plan. The issuance of new local bonds (new general bonds + new special bonds) in the past week was 69.722 billion yuan, and the issuance since the beginning of the year was 2.07865 trillion yuan, completing 40.0% of the annual plan. As of June 20, the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts had reached 1.74 trillion yuan, completing 86.8% of the annual plan [14]. - In terms of fund structure, during the statistical period, the lending scale of state - owned and joint - stock banks increased, while that of money market funds and wealth management products decreased. The overall borrowing scale of non - banking institutions decreased slightly. Thanks to the central bank's injection of medium - and long - term liquidity, the DR series declined, with the overnight rate running below the policy rate. The spread between the 7 - day rate and the policy rate narrowed to less than 10bp. Due to quarter - end needs, the 14 - day funding rate increased marginally. The R series showed a similar trend to the DR series, and the liquidity stratification remained at a low level. Overall, the funding situation showed a pattern of "increasing volume and decreasing price" this week, with a marginal tightening feeling on Thursday and Friday. After the central bank's intervention, the overall feeling was balanced [17]. 3.1.2 CD Review - In the primary market, during the statistical period, the net financing scale of inter - bank CDs was 8.068 billion yuan, with a total issuance of 110.232 billion yuan and a maturity of 102.164 billion yuan. In the next three weeks, 113.781 billion, 24.579 billion, and 51.052 billion yuan of inter - bank CDs will mature respectively. The primary issuance rate decreased slightly, with an average issuance rate of 1.6556% (previous value: 1.6744%) [20]. - In the secondary market, during the statistical period, the core buyers such as money market funds, wealth management products, and funds continued to increase their holdings. Large - scale banks changed from selling to buying, and insurance companies and other product accounts continued to increase their holdings. City commercial banks, rural commercial banks were the main counterparties. The secondary - market yield of CDs fluctuated and decreased slightly during the week, and the yield curve steepened slightly. The yields of 1M/3M/6M/9M/1Y CDs changed by - 0.02BP/ - 2.25BP/ - 2.50BP/ - 2.70BP/ - 3.34BP respectively [21]. 3.1.3 Next Week's Focus - In terms of the funding situation, in the past week, the funding situation fluctuated due to quarter - end liquidity needs. On Thursday, the funding situation tightened marginally, and the intraday interest rate started to rise. However, the central bank immediately switched to net injection to support the funding situation. On Friday, the 7 - day funding rate returned to a low level, and DR007 dropped below 1.50%. Recently, thanks to the central bank's injection of medium - and long - term liquidity, the lending scale of large - scale banks increased significantly. The overnight rate has been running below the policy rate, and the spread between the 7 - day rate and the policy rate has narrowed to less than 10bp. The funding situation smoothly passed the tax - payment period. In the next week, the main focus of the funding situation will shift to month - end liquidity, and the net payment scale of government bonds will increase by over 70 billion yuan. Attention should be paid to the central bank's end - of - quarter OMO injection and the MLF roll - over operation on the 25th. The funding situation is expected to remain balanced [26]. - In terms of CDs, on the supply side, in the past week, the net financing of CDs remained negative. The central bank's injection of medium - and long - term liquidity alleviated the liability pressure of banks, and the primary CD rate decreased slightly. On the demand side, the demand from core buyers increased marginally, and the secondary - market yield of CDs fluctuated and decreased slightly during the week. In the next week, the maturity scale of CDs will exceed one trillion yuan, presenting significant supply pressure. However, the issuance pressure of CDs is expected to gradually ease. As the month - end approaches, the funding situation may fluctuate, and CD yields may continue to show a volatile trend [27]. 3.2 Weekly Institutional Behavior Tracking 3.2.1 General Credit Bonds Show an Obvious Trend of Extending Duration - Under the assumption of long - term narrow - range fluctuations in the risk - free rate, the market has further explored credit - spread strategies. Since mid - May, the trading duration of industrial bonds has rapidly increased, with the latest trading duration approaching 4 years. The liquidity of long - duration credit bonds has indeed improved. The trading duration of urban investment bonds has remained relatively stable, currently at around 2.5 years [3][29]. - Driven by the long - duration credit - sinking strategy, the remaining space may be quickly exhausted. In terms of spreads, the 3 - year - 1 - year AAA medium - and short - term note term spread is 9 - 10bp away from the previous low, and the 5 - year - 3 - year AAA medium - and short - term note term spread is 7 - 8bp away from the previous low. The credit - bond duration - sinking situation has reached an extreme level. In terms of yield distribution, currently, the yields of most general credit bond assets with a maturity of over 3 years are concentrated below 2.1%, indicating limited high - yield assets available for exploration [3][30]. 3.2.2 Review of Key Secondary - Market Transactions by Institutions - Large - scale banks: In the past week, the trend of large - scale banks' net buying of treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years continued, with a buying scale of approximately 51.7 billion yuan [35]. - Interest - rate bond buyers: Funds remain the main buyers of interest - rate bonds. In the past week, the net purchase scale was approximately 141.2 billion yuan, showing a significant increase in volume. Rural commercial banks were one of the main sellers, with a net selling scale of approximately 127.2 billion yuan. In the case of 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds, funds also maintained strong buying power, while rural commercial banks and insurance companies were the main bond suppliers [35]. - Inter - bank CD buyers: The main buyers of CDs are wealth management products and other products, while the main sellers are city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, and securities firms [35]. - Credit - bond buyers: The net purchase scale of major non - banking buyers continued to increase significantly. Funds, wealth management products, and other products were the main net buyers, with funds having the largest incremental purchase. In the past week, the net purchase scale of funds reached 46.8 billion yuan. The net purchase scales of credit bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years and ultra - long - term credit bonds with a maturity of over 5 years remained relatively stable, and the non - banking buyers showed a significant increase in volume [35]. - Subordinated - bond buyers: Funds continued to net sell subordinated bonds with a maturity of less than 2 years, with a net selling scale of approximately 5.1 billion yuan in the past week. Wealth management products and other products net bought 4.5 billion yuan. For subordinated bonds with a maturity of 2 - 5 years, the main buyers slightly reduced their purchases. Funds and other products had the largest net purchase scales, at 14.5 billion yuan and 12.2 billion yuan respectively. For subordinated bonds with a maturity of 5 - 10 years, the net purchase scale of funds increased slightly, reaching 4.5 billion yuan in the past week [35]. 3.2.3 High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Bond - Market Microstructure - On June 20, the median of the 10 - day rolling average duration of medium - and long - term bond funds was 3.87 years, showing a significant increase compared to the previous period [36]. - In the past week, the bond - market leverage ratio was 107.83%, continuing to rise compared to the previous period [38]. - On June 20, the 10Y China Development Bank bond - 10Y treasury bond term spread was 3.74bp, showing a volatile narrowing trend. The 1Y China Development Bank bond - R001 spread was 4.87BP, and the spread between short - term bond yields and funding prices slightly widened [41].

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 22 日 风偏下行，待时而动 ——可转债周度跟踪 核心观点 本周市场走势偏弱，地缘冲突影响下市场风偏下行。权益市场层面，阶段性调整权益 市场或将迎来做多窗口。虽然近期中东地缘局势再次扰动全球风险偏好，A 股短期跟 随震荡调整。不过地缘事件对国内而言更多是情绪上的短期冲击，影响 A 股的核心因 素仍为自身结构性问题。可转债市场同权益市场共振，市场矛盾集中于政策与业绩兑 现的时滞，结构性机会仍主导交易节奏，后期有望维持中性偏强格局。在供需支撑与 波段操作博弈下，估值中枢有望保持高位、条款与期权价值博弈交织。 ❑ 风险提示 经济基本面改善不足；国内流动性收紧；海外风险事件超预期；历史经验不代表 未来 分析师：陈婷婷 执业证书号：S1230525050001 chentingting01@stocke.com.cn 研究助理：章恒豪 zhanghenghao@stocke.com.cn 相关报告 1 《待到资产尽荒时，此差压尽 更无差》 2025.06.21 2 《"6 月布局"转为"6 月抢 跑"，把握泛超长债机会 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the steel industry is expected to enter a peak season, suggesting a favorable outlook for investments in this sector [1] Price Data Summary - The SW Steel Index is at 2,077, with a year-to-date change of +1.2% [3] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,070 CNY/ton, showing a year-to-date change of +10% [3] - Hot-rolled coil is priced at 3,210 CNY/ton, with a year-to-date change of +6% [3] - Iron ore price index is at 93 USD/ton, with a year-to-date change of +7% [3] Inventory Summary - Total social inventory of five major steel products is 9,120,000 tons, with a year-to-date change of +3% [5] - Total inventory at steel mills is 4,260,000 tons, with a year-to-date change of +6% [5] - Port inventory of iron ore is 13,897,000 tons, with a year-to-date change of +5% [5] Supply and Demand Summary - Weekly production of five major steel products is projected to be around 1,000,000 tons [9] - Daily molten iron production is expected to reach approximately 230,000 tons [9] - The report highlights the operational rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces, indicating a stable production environment [12][14]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.8%, while the CSI 300 also decreased by 0.8%. The STAR Market 50 dropped by 0.5%, the CSI 1000 declined by 1.4%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.4%. The Hang Seng Index experienced a decline of 2.0% [5][7]. - The best-performing sectors included oil and petrochemicals (+0.9%), while the worst-performing sectors were textiles and apparel (-2.4%), beauty and personal care (-2.3%), light industry manufacturing (-2.0%), non-ferrous metals (-2.0%), and pharmaceuticals and biology (-1.9%) [5][7]. - The total trading volume across the A-share market was 12,809 billion, with a net inflow of 1.43 billion HKD from southbound funds [5][7]. Key Recommendations - The report highlights Yingliu Co., Ltd. (603308) as a leading high-end casting company benefiting from trends in AIDC, aerospace technology, and nuclear fusion industries. The growth potential is significant due to the expected surge in demand for AIDC, aerospace engines, and nuclear power [8]. - The company is increasing its investment in blade casing processing coating projects and advanced nuclear materials, which is expected to significantly enhance its production capacity and product value [8]. - Revenue projections for Yingliu Co., Ltd. are estimated at 3,132 million, 3,858 million, and 4,694 million from 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of 25%, 23%, and 22% respectively. Net profit is projected to be 406 million, 555 million, and 742 million, with growth rates of 42%, 37%, and 34% respectively [8]. Important Insights - The macroeconomic research indicates that the Ministry of Finance's actions in Q3 to replenish fiscal deposit accounts may be a key observation window for the Federal Reserve's decision to halt balance sheet reduction. The adjustment of the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) in the second half of the year is also crucial [9]. - The mechanical equipment sector report emphasizes a focus on engineering machinery, humanoid robots, and overseas expansion. The global market for engineering machinery is expected to grow as international market share increases and domestic demand improves due to favorable macro policies [10][11]. - The report notes that AI and automation will drive growth in the next decade, with a focus on global supply chains and the emergence of competitive overseas enterprises [11].

Group 1: Swine Industry - The supply pressure for swine in 2025 is expected to be significant, with the breeding sow inventory projected to peak at 40.8 million heads in November 2024 before gradually declining [11][14] - The average weight of swine at market is increasing, with the industry average reaching 130 kg as of May 2023, up from 126 kg in the previous year, indicating a trend towards heavier market weights [11] - Recommendations for investment include companies such as Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuffs, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions and price recovery [18] Group 2: Poultry Industry - The white feather chicken supply is anticipated to remain robust, with breeding stock levels expected to reach historical highs, ensuring sufficient capacity for 2025-2026 [25] - Enhancing consumer demand for white feather chicken is crucial, with a focus on developing new consumption scenarios such as frozen foods and prepared dishes [35] - The yellow feather chicken sector is currently facing significant losses, with cost control being a critical factor for profitability, particularly for companies like Lihua Agricultural [36][39] Group 3: Feed Industry - The demand for pig feed is expected to gradually improve in 2025, driven by the recovery of breeding sow inventory and favorable profit margins in the breeding sector [42] - Companies like Bangji Technology and Hefeng Co. are highlighted as key players in the pig feed market, with potential for profitability recovery [42] Group 4: Animal Health Industry - The traditional animal health market is recovering slowly, with increased demand for vaccines and medications as breeding enterprises return to profitability [56] - The pet healthcare market is emerging as a new growth area, with domestic brands expected to gain market share as consumer awareness increases [62] Group 5: Seed Industry - The traditional seed market is facing intense competition, with oversupply leading to price declines and a potential shakeout of smaller companies [72] - The focus on genetically modified crops is expected to accelerate, with significant growth opportunities for leading companies in this space, such as Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [77]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of supply shocks and is optimistic about the import substitution of new materials in the basic chemical industry [1][4] - The chemical raw materials and products industry achieved revenue and profit of 2.95 trillion and 115 billion respectively in the first four months of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1% and a profit decline of 4.4% [12][19] - The chemical industry profit margin has dropped to a historical low of 3.9% as of mid-2025 [12][52] Group 2 - The report indicates that external demand may slow down in 2025, with oil prices under downward pressure due to OPEC+ increasing production [35][39] - Domestic demand is expected to stabilize and recover due to a series of incremental policies, with GDP growth projected at around 5% for the year [43][44] - The report highlights that the chemical raw materials and products industry fixed asset investment growth has significantly slowed, with the operating rate dropping to 73.5% in Q1 2025 [24][26] Group 3 - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in the chemical industry, particularly in supply-restricted sectors such as phosphate and potassium fertilizers, and in high-concentration sub-industries like viscose staple fiber and vitamins [48][49] - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in new materials, especially those related to import substitution, such as AI high-speed resins and fluorinated liquids [48][49] - The report suggests that the valuation of the basic chemical sector is at a historical low, with the overall PE and PB ratios at 22.29 times and 1.82 times respectively as of June 16, 2025 [52][53] Group 4 - The viscose staple fiber industry has not seen new capacity additions for several years, leading to a high concentration and potential for profit recovery [60][67] - The polyester industrial yarn sector is expected to see a reversal in supply and demand dynamics, with no new capacity planned and increasing demand from the automotive sector [69][79] - The modified plastics sector is projected to grow due to the ongoing replacement policies in domestic appliances and the rise of new demands from robotics and low-altitude applications [81][90] Group 5 - The refrigerant market is expected to grow steadily, supported by the ongoing replacement policies and increasing demand from the automotive sector [92][93] - The report highlights the potential for the civil explosives industry to see demand exceed expectations due to high resource prices and ongoing large-scale infrastructure projects [95][96] - The phosphate chemical sector is projected to maintain high profitability due to sustained high prices and tight supply-demand conditions [99][100]

Investment Rating - The report rates the new tobacco industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The core consumer group for HNB (Heated Not Burned) products consists of traditional smokers aged 25-40 with a demand for smoking cessation or harm reduction, indicating a larger market expansion potential compared to vaping and oral nicotine products [3][19] - Glo Hilo is expected to gain rapid traction in Japan and Europe, benefiting core supplier Smoore [4] - The report highlights Smoore International and Yingqu Technology as core recommended stocks [5][146][151] Market Overview - According to the World Tobacco Development Report and Euromonitor, the HNB market is projected to reach a value of $38.9 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 13%, and a global penetration rate of 6% (excluding China) [6] - In Japan, the HNB penetration rate reached 48% in March 2025, while Italy's rate was 31%, indicating significant growth potential in the U.S. and low-to-middle-income markets [6][34] - The report notes that the HNB market has a stable double-digit growth rate and a concentrated competitive landscape, unlike the more fragmented vaping and oral nicotine markets [23] Competitive Landscape - The report details the competitive dynamics in key markets such as Japan and Italy, where Philip Morris holds a dominant market share of 69.8% in Japan and 82.8% in Italy, with British American Tobacco having significant room to catch up [35] - The U.S. market is highlighted as having potential for HNB growth, with a projected decline in traditional cigarette sales and an increasing acceptance of new smoking methods [42] Product Development and Innovation - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements in HNB products, focusing on heating technology, temperature control, and flavor preservation to enhance user experience [6][144] - Major tobacco companies are investing in R&D to improve product performance and user experience, which is expected to facilitate the transition from traditional to new tobacco consumption [6][144] Financial Projections - Smoore International is projected to achieve revenues of 12.89 billion, 15.11 billion, and 17.35 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 1.32 billion, 1.92 billion, and 2.48 billion RMB [146] - Yingqu Technology's IQOS business is expected to show quarterly improvement in 2025, with new products anticipated to drive growth in 2026 [151]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [5] Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading manufacturer of high-end casting components, benefiting from trends in AIDC, aerospace technology, and nuclear fusion industries [1][9] - The company has established a complete high-end component production system and is a key member of the high-end equipment manufacturing industry chain in China [18][19] - The company plans to issue 1.5 billion convertible bonds to enhance its production capabilities in turbine blade processing and advanced nuclear materials [9][33] Summary by Relevant Sections Business Overview - The company focuses on aviation engines and gas turbine products, benefiting from the demand for domestic large aircraft and AIDC [18] - The company has a strong presence in the high-end parts, aerospace technology, and advanced materials sectors, serving various high-end equipment fields [18][22] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company expects revenue of 2,513 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and a net profit of 286 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6% [4][25] - The company's sales gross margin is projected to be 34.2%, with a net margin of 10% for 2024 [27][28] Gas Turbine Sector - The global gas turbine market is estimated to be 28.14 billion USD in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.4% from 2025 to 2034 [46] - The company is recognized as a domestic leader in gas turbine blades, with a significant increase in orders, achieving a 102.8% year-on-year growth in 2024 [2][61] Aerospace Sector - The global aerospace engine market was approximately 113.97 billion USD in 2023, expected to reach 151.20 billion USD by 2030, with a CAGR of 4.12% [67] - The company is positioned to benefit from the doubling of global aircraft numbers over the next 20 years, as predicted by Airbus [68] Nuclear Power Sector - The nuclear power industry is expected to grow, with a projected CAGR of 8.4% for installed capacity from 2023 to 2035 [3] - The company has established joint ventures to engage in nuclear fusion materials and components, enhancing its position in the nuclear energy sector [3][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the IMU sector, with significant growth potential in the fields of unmanned logistics, intelligent driving, and humanoid robotics [1][4] - The launch of the E6 unmanned logistics vehicle by Jiushi at a price of 20,000 yuan is expected to accelerate the growth of the unmanned logistics market [2] - The company has received multiple certifications, including the German TÜV Rheinland ISO 26262 for automotive functional safety, and is in mass production of high-precision inertial navigation products, indicating a strong position in the passenger vehicle market [3] - The humanoid robotics sector is anticipated to see substantial growth in 2025, with the company already achieving small-scale supply of IMU for humanoid robots [4] - The company reported a revenue of 142 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.02%, and a net profit of 3 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 636 million, 816 million, and 1,003 million yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 50.19%, 28.35%, and 22.89%, respectively [6] - The forecasted net profit for the same period is 56.86 million, 78.44 million, and 94.62 million yuan, with growth rates of - and 37.95%, 20.62% [6] - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33% from 2025 to 2027 [6]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve remains on hold, maintaining the federal funds target rate at 4.25%-4.50%[1] - The dot plot indicates expectations for 2 rate cuts this year, but there is significant division among officials regarding the timing[3] - Economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 1.7% to 1.4%, reflecting uncertainties from tariff impacts[3] Group 2: Balance Sheet and Regulatory Adjustments - The current pace of balance sheet reduction is $50 billion for Treasury securities and $350 billion for MBS[2] - The Treasury's replenishment of the TGA account in Q3 may be a key observation window for the Fed to halt balance sheet reduction[7] - Adjustments to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) are anticipated, which could enhance banks' capacity to hold U.S. Treasuries[8] Group 3: Market Conditions and Risks - U.S. equity and bond market liquidity is at historical lows, with foreign investors facing potential redemption pressures[6] - The unemployment rate forecast for the end of 2025 is adjusted to 4.5%, up from 4.4%[3] - The year-end PCE inflation forecast has been raised to 3.0%, up from 2.7%, primarily due to tariff impacts[3]