Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report highlights the strong growth potential of Baolingbao (002286) driven by product structure optimization and benefits from anti-dumping measures, with a projected revenue of 2,581 million CNY in 2025, growing at a rate of 7.46% [6] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 181 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a significant growth rate of 62.89% [6] - The report suggests that the impact of trade conflicts on the company is minimal due to its low overseas revenue contribution, with 76% of revenue coming from the domestic market [6] Group 2: Industry Insights - The A-share market is anticipated to undergo a phase of "active adjustment," with a focus on structural changes in holdings and waiting for external news, particularly regarding tariff negotiations [8] - The macroeconomic outlook indicates a potential U-shaped trajectory for the economy, with slower price recovery expected in the second quarter compared to the first [10] - The bond market is expected to see opportunities for long-term bonds as the market gradually returns to fundamental trading, following recent monetary policy adjustments [12] Group 3: Company Performance - Taotao Automotive (301345) reported a remarkable 69% year-on-year growth in Q1, indicating a strong market position and potential for continued market share expansion [14] - The company is benefiting from accelerated production capacity in Southeast Asia and the U.S., along with exceeding expectations in golf cart orders [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring trade dynamics as a catalyst for future performance [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The medical device sector is currently at a valuation bottom, with a significant acceleration in domestic substitution expected. The recovery of hospital procurement and the completion of centralized procurement are anticipated to enhance the performance of domestic companies [3][41] - The report highlights the potential for substantial growth in high-value consumables, particularly in areas such as electrophysiology, orthopedics, coronary intervention, and artificial lenses, as companies emerge from the impacts of centralized procurement and inventory adjustments [3][41] - The medical equipment segment is expected to see a recovery in performance in the second half of 2025, driven by the resumption of hospital procurement and overseas expansion [3][44] - The home medical device market is projected to regain growth due to a recovering consumer environment and ongoing new product investments [3][54] Summary by Sections Valuation - The medical device sector is currently at historical low valuations, with medical equipment at a PE of 32x, medical consumables at 30x, and in vitro diagnostics (IVD) at 24x as of April 30, 2025 [9] Growth Potential - Demand for low-value and high-value consumables remains stable, with expected positive revenue growth in 2024. However, other segments like medical equipment and IVD are experiencing revenue and profit declines due to procurement impacts [12][13] Profitability - Profitability has declined across most segments except for low-value consumables, with net profit margins decreasing in 2024. The report notes that the recovery of net profit margins is expected in 2025 as expense ratios decrease [25][31] Operational Efficiency - High-value consumables have achieved the highest accounts receivable turnover since 2020, indicating improved operational efficiency as companies adjust to the impacts of centralized procurement [32] Domestic Substitution - The report emphasizes the acceleration of domestic substitution in high-end medical devices due to increased tariffs and competitive product capabilities. Companies with low domestic production rates and significant import substitution potential are recommended [39][41] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in high-value consumables companies that are entering a growth phase post-centralized procurement, as well as medical equipment and home medical device companies that are expected to see steady revenue growth [54]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is undergoing a clearing process, with leading companies recovering profitability [2][3] - The overall performance of the chain pharmacy sector is expected to improve in 2025, with a recovery in valuations observed in Q1 2025 [11] - The market is witnessing a shift towards a higher proportion of franchise stores, indicating a trend towards asset-light expansion models [24][29] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The chain pharmacy sector is experiencing accelerated store closures and slowed openings, with a significant increase in the proportion of franchise stores from 9% in 2020 to 28% in Q1 2025 [24][29] - The market is expected to see a continued increase in the market share of leading companies due to industry consolidation [30] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, leading companies are expected to see a significant recovery in net profit margins, following a period of adjustment in 2024 [35] - The overall revenue growth rate for the pharmacy sector has declined significantly in 2024, but a recovery in profit growth is anticipated in 2025 due to improved consumer spending and the implementation of coordinated healthcare policies [42] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading pharmacy companies with superior management capabilities and quick category adjustments to mitigate the downward pressure on industry profitability. Specific recommendations include Dazhenglin, Yifeng Pharmacy, and Laobaixing, with a focus on Yixin Hall, Jianzhijia, and Shuyupingmin [4][58]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 11 日 哑铃策略占优 核心观点 我们认为在短期市场弹性上升的背景下，考虑到转债市场相关的潜在风险释放压力， 继续投资者继续采取稳健与成长兼具的哑铃配置策略，具体关注内需刺激受益与新质 生产力板块。 ❑ 可转债市场观察 过去一周（5 月 6 日至 5 月 9 日，下同）大部分转债指数上涨，其中可转债可选 消费行业指数，AA-及以下评级转债、可转债高价指数、小盘转债指数领涨。估 值方面，平衡性、股性估值压缩。可转债市场的价格中位数小幅上升到 120.60 元，处在 2017 年以来的 81.26%水平。 虽然近期市场整体弹性上升，但是未来一个月左右的时间我们认为市场或许更加 关注基本面，其原因主要在于；首先，基于 2024 年财报，有关国九条新规将要 落地实行，市场风格也将更加关注基本面而非成长预期；其次，评级公司也将会 在年报披露完毕后，集中对转债进行评级展望，届时或将继续有相关转债的评级 有被下调的可能性；最后，海外关税风险冲击国内风险偏好与基本面。以上几个 方面将对市场风格带来影响，市场大概率将会倾向于基 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's annual and quarterly performance met expectations, with continuous growth driven by its main business in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 [1] - The company is focusing on fan economy and deepening its engagement in vertical markets such as celebrity copyright books [1] - The "Publishing + Internet" strategy is showing initial success, with significant growth in user numbers and internet product accounts [1] - The company is actively developing its second growth curve through the animated film "The Three Kingdoms: The Starry Sky," expected to be released in 2025 [7] - The company is making notable progress in AI applications, particularly with its AI proofreading product [7] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 582.15 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.76%, and a net profit of 40.83 million yuan, a decrease of 23.87% [9] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 806.14 million yuan, 974.98 million yuan, and 1.25 billion yuan, representing growth rates of 38.48%, 20.94%, and 28.06% respectively [9] - The company anticipates net profits of 138.35 million yuan in 2025, 135.64 million yuan in 2026, and 200.68 million yuan in 2027 [9] - The estimated P/E ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 25.33, 25.84, and 17.47 respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's annual and quarterly performance met expectations, with continuous growth driven by its main business in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 [1] - The company is focusing on fan economy and deepening its engagement in vertical markets such as celebrity copyright books [1] - The "Publishing + Internet" strategy is showing initial success, with significant growth in user numbers and internet product accounts [1] - The company is actively developing its second growth curve through the animated film "The Three Kingdoms: The Starry Sky," expected to be released in 2025 [7] - The company is making notable progress in AI applications, particularly with its AI proofreading product [7] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 582.15 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.76%, and a net profit of 40.83 million yuan, a decrease of 23.87% [9] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 806.14 million yuan, 974.98 million yuan, and 1.25 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 38.48%, 20.94%, and 28.06% [9] - The company anticipates net profits of 138.35 million yuan in 2025, 135.64 million yuan in 2026, and 200.68 million yuan in 2027 [9] - The estimated P/E ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 25.33, 25.84, and 17.47, respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the anticipation of supply-side constraints being implemented, which is expected to impact the steel industry positively [1] Price Data Summary - The SW Steel Index is at 2,169, with a weekly increase of 1.8% and a year-to-date increase of 3.2% [3] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,150 CNY/ton, showing a weekly decrease of 1.6% and a year-to-date decrease of 7.6% [3] - The price of hot-rolled coil is 3,200 CNY/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.2% and a year-to-date decrease of 6.4% [3] - The iron ore price index is at 98 USD/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.1% and a year-to-date decrease of 2.0% [3] Inventory Summary - The total social inventory of five major steel products is 1,032 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 4.7% and a year-to-date increase of 1.36% [5] - The total inventory at steel mills is 443 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 1.6% and a year-to-date increase of 26.5% [5] - The port inventory of iron ore is 14,235 million tons, with no weekly change and a year-to-date increase of 4.2% [5] Supply and Demand Summary - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be 1,000 million tons [9] - The average daily molten iron production is expected to be around 230 million tons [9]

5 月，观望期：出口链修复，不宜过度乐观 ——主动量化周报 核心观点 关税缓和预期持续定价，风险偏好回升短期有较强的天花板效应。下一阶段，最大的 隐含风险在于美国通胀压力飙升，美联储降息预期落空对权益资产形成二次冲击。 ❑ 过去一周市场交易主线是什么？ 关税缓和，美降息预期下修。市场过去一周核心交易关税预期缓和下的风险偏好 回暖，对于降息等政策也提前有所定价。其中，出口链对应的机械、汽车、家电 持续走强，TMT 板块也有所修复。需要注意的是，降息落地后行情上行动力明 显减弱，短期无利好催化预期，且在逆全球化大框架下，风险偏好天花板较低。 此外，对美出口持续下行，义乌小商品出口价格指数大幅飙升，美国输入性通胀 逻辑持续演绎，5 月美国通胀数据超预期飙升仍将是接下来最大风险点。 ❑ 如何理解公募新规对行情的事件性冲击？ 3 万亿公募持仓再平衡不容小觑。公募新规后，由于监管对业绩比较基准较为看 重，未来主动权益基金可能逐步变为类指数增强产品，不会相对基准有过大偏 移。那么，目前公募相较市场超配较多的行业面临持续卖出压力，而低配较多的 行业则有资金回补需求。截至 5 月 8 日，目前市场低配较多的行业包括非银、银 行 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The second quarter is recommended for the traditional Chinese medicine sector, with expectations for a performance turning point despite significant pressure in the first quarter [3][10] - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is anticipated to see a recovery in performance due to improved inventory levels and profitability, alongside favorable conditions from U.S. tariff policies [5][21] Summary by Sections 1. Quarterly Report Overview - The first quarter faced substantial pressure, but nearly half of the companies (31) achieved positive growth in net profit attributable to shareholders after excluding non-recurring items, with 18 companies reporting revenue growth [13][14] - Companies such as Jia Ying Pharmaceutical and Te Yi Pharmaceutical reported significant revenue growth of 28.8% and 79.3%, respectively, driven by channel expansion and marketing reforms [14] 2. Core Indicator Tracking - Inventory levels have decreased, leading to sustained improvements in profitability [18] - The traditional Chinese medicine sector's valuation is currently below the average since 2021, indicating potential for recovery [24] 3. Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong brand power and potential for margin improvement are recommended for aggressive investment, including Dong E E Jiao, Tong Ren Tang, and Pian Zai Huang [10][18] - Defensive investments are suggested in stable dividend-paying assets such as Yunnan Baiyao and Ling Rui Pharmaceutical [10][18] - The sector's overall valuation is low, with a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 27.00x as of May 9, 2025, which is below the average since 2021 [24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4] Core Views - The company has shown impressive revenue and profit growth in Q1 2025, driven by the strong performance of its vintage raw liquor series, which has seen both volume and price increases [2][3] - The company aims to continue its "nationalization and mid-to-high-end" strategy, focusing on expanding its market presence and enhancing product offerings [2][3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 235.78 billion (up 16.41%) and a net profit of 55.17 billion (up 20.22%). Q1 2025 revenue was 91.46 billion (up 10.38%) with a net profit of 23.30 billion (up 12.78%) [8] - The vintage raw liquor series contributed significantly to revenue growth, with sales volume increasing by 11.99% and average price per ton rising by 4.75% [2] Product and Market Strategy - The company operates multiple brands and flavor types, including ancient well tribute liquor, Yellow Crane Tower, and others, with a focus on both local and national markets [2] - The company plans to implement a "three-channel project" to enhance sales, reduce inventory, and stabilize prices [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company’s revenue growth is projected to be 12% in 2025 and 11% in 2026, with net profit growth also adjusted to 12% for both years. The EPS for 2025-2027 is forecasted at 11.71, 13.13, and 14.87 respectively [3][4] - The company maintains a PE ratio of 14 times for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation compared to its earnings growth [4]