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智翔金泰(688443):赛立奇商业化,多管线兑现期
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-08 12:54
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the commercialization prospects of the company's products, including the monoclonal antibody "Sailiqi" and the bispecific antibody for rabies [1] - The company achieved significant revenue growth in 2024, with total revenue reaching 30.10 million yuan, and a slight narrowing of net losses compared to the previous year [1] - The company is advancing its pipeline with a focus on differentiated indications, with key products expected to enter commercialization phases [1][2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 30.10 million yuan, a substantial increase from the previous year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 797.27 million yuan [4][6] - For Q1 2025, the company generated revenue of 20.16 million yuan, with a net loss of 121 million yuan [1] - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 199 million yuan, 533 million yuan, and 1.07 billion yuan respectively, indicating strong growth potential [4][6] Pipeline Development - The "Sailiqi" monoclonal antibody has received approvals for two indications, with expectations for significant sales growth in 2025 and 2026 [1] - The bispecific antibody GR1803 has entered a collaboration agreement with Cullinan Therapeutics, with a total transaction value of 712 million USD, currently in Phase II clinical trials [3] - Other pipeline products, including GR1802 and GR1801, are progressing through clinical trials, with GR1802 targeting multiple indications and GR1801 being a promising rabies treatment [2][3]
主动量化周报:6月中旬:边际乐观,逢低建仓-20250608
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-08 10:58
6 月中旬:边际乐观,逢低建仓 ——主动量化周报 核心观点 期指贴水、成交缩量等维度皆指向市场悲观预期足够充分,无论从历史胜率还是定价 逻辑,当下都是一个建仓较好的时点。未来增量资金大头更看好游资、个人回流,小 盘有望更强。 ❑ 为什么 6 月中旬可以更乐观一些? 外围风险压制松动,风险偏好中枢上移。从 3 月中旬开始,A 股进入缩量阶段, 全 A 成交额由 2 月 21 日的 2.23 万亿缩至 6 月 6 日的 1.18 万亿。历史上,当多 空筹码结构严重失衡,大多数人偏悲观的时候,是一个较好的建仓时点。从 2017 年以来的统计结果来看,以中证 500 股指期货次月合约为例,若在年化贴 水超过 15%时买入中证 500 指数,虽然初期仍将有所震荡,但持有超过 12 个交 易日后,平均累计收益就将震荡走高,而持有超过 33 个交易日后,累计收益为 正的胜率就将持续高于 50%,持有超过 50 个交易日后的胜率则基本能达到 60% 以上。本轮周期中,期货贴水于 4 月 7 日首次超过 15%,距今已有 41 个交易 日,历史经验表明,未来市场或有望进一步走高。从本次贴水逻辑来看,美债信 用裂痕、美国财政资金 ...
可转债周度跟踪:仓位中性,择券为主-20250608
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-08 08:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market fluctuated upward this week, with major broad - based indices and convertible bond indices showing a mild recovery. The market's main line is still unclear, and it is waiting for incremental information. The convertible bond market resonated with the equity market, with increased trading activity and a continued differentiation in the valuation structure. The focus of capital allocation has shifted from extreme elasticity to high certainty, and a "stable allocation + selective elasticity" dual - wheel drive strategy is maintained. In the bond market, the pressure of maturing inter - bank certificates of deposit in the next three weeks is still large, and the pressure on cross - quarter liquidity cannot be ignored. It is difficult to see a smooth decline in interest rates in June [1][2]. - In the equity market, under the dual background of the adjustment of the public fund assessment mechanism and the phased easing of Sino - US tariffs, the main line is still unclear, and the style is differentiated. The dividend style has attracted wide attention, and the growth style is gradually recovering. The market value structure is biased towards small - cap growth. In terms of strategy, it is necessary to optimize strategies by combining new productive forces, institutional dividends, and the dynamic evolution of the valuation system. In terms of allocation, attention should be paid to the dividend, technology growth, and large - consumption sectors [8]. - For the convertible bond market, it is recommended to use a framework of "neutral position, bond selection as the foundation". The dumbbell strategy will still be dominant. In terms of allocation, focus on three directions: concentrating positions on high - rating, low - premium blue - chip convertible bonds; selecting medium - and high - priced thematic growth bonds; and conducting refined management in combination with clause events and credit marginal changes [2][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Observation - In the past week (from June 2nd to June 6th), major broad - based indices and convertible bond indices fluctuated upward, but the market style was still differentiated. The convertible bond information technology index, AA - and below index, convertible bond high - price index, and small - cap convertible bond index led the gains. In the bond market, the pressure of maturing inter - bank certificates of deposit in the next three weeks is large, and it is difficult to see a smooth decline in interest rates in June [7]. - In the equity market, the main line is unclear, and the style is differentiated. The dividend style is popular, and the growth style is recovering. The market value structure is biased towards small - cap growth. Attention should be paid to the dividend, technology growth, and large - consumption sectors [8]. - The convertible bond market resonated with the equity market, showing a mild recovery, with increased trading activity and a continued differentiation in the valuation structure. A "stable allocation + selective elasticity" strategy is maintained, and a "neutral position, bond selection as the foundation" framework is recommended [9]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Market Tracking 3.2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions - The report provides the performance data of various convertible bond indices in different time periods, such as the one - week, two - week, 3 - month - since, one - month, two - month, half - year, and one - year changes of the Wind Convertible Bond Energy Index, Wind Convertible Bond Materials Index, etc. [10] 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Bonds - The report shows the top five and bottom five individual bonds in terms of weekly price changes and the top five and bottom five underlying stocks of individual bonds in terms of weekly price changes, but specific bond names are not provided [13][25] 3.2.3 Convertible Bond Valuation - The report presents the valuation trends of bond - type, balanced, and equity - type convertible bonds, as well as the conversion premium rate valuation trends of convertible bonds with par values in different ranges (90 - 100, 100 - 110, 110 - 120) [19][21][31] 3.2.4 Convertible Bond Prices - The report shows the trends of the proportion of high - price bonds, low - price bonds, the proportion of bonds falling below the bond floor, and the median price of the convertible bond market [29][33]
食饮行业周报(2025年6月第1期):新消费关注催化,白酒探底茶饮入通
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-07 13:25
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The new consumption trend continues, focusing on low-priced/undervalued stocks with potential catalysts, particularly in the food and beverage sector. Key areas of focus include "category dividends in the food sector," "new channel drivers like membership supermarkets," and "new hotspots in health products" [2][16] - The traditional consumption represented by liquor may face pressure, with current recommendations for leading brands in the fragrance category [12][16] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is expected to face pressure in Q2, with current valuations remaining low. Recommended stocks include leading brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu for medium-term positioning [12][16] - Recent performance shows a decline of 0.84% in the liquor sector, with notable increases in stocks like Jinhui Liquor (+6.25%) and Huangtai Liquor (+5.03%) [3][22] - Guizhou Moutai has launched new products at the 2025 Osaka World Expo, indicating ongoing brand expansion efforts [4] Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector continues to show potential, with a focus on stocks like New Dairy, Jin Zai Food, and Aijia Food. The sector saw a rise in non-dairy beverages (+1.33%) and meat products (+1.30%) [2][22] - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with a recommendation for leading stocks in the retail transformation and cost cycle opportunities [16] Market Performance - From June 3 to June 6, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.88%, with the non-dairy beverage and meat product sectors leading the gains. In contrast, other liquor categories saw declines [22] - The valuation levels in the food and beverage industry have adjusted, with the industry trading at 21.64 times earnings, while specific segments like liquor are trading at varying multiples [28]
上海沿浦:下游客户放量、财务压力减小,25Q2公司有望出现业绩拐点-20250607
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-07 13:25
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company is expected to see a performance inflection point in Q2 2025 due to increased downstream customer demand and reduced financial pressure [1][9] - The company has introduced its "automotive seat business" in its annual report, indicating a significant market opportunity with low domestic replacement rates [3] - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 show strong growth, with expected revenues of 33 billion, 43 billion, and 48 billion respectively, and net profits of 2.5 billion, 3.5 billion, and 4.5 billion [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue decreased by approximately 24% due to weak downstream customer sales, particularly the significant drop in sales of the Wanjie M7 model [2] - The company's gross margin improved to 19%, a year-on-year increase of 6 percentage points, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin front-row products [2] - The company anticipates a total reduction of 455 million in cash outflows from financing from 2025 to 2028, along with a decrease in financial expenses by 72 million over the same period [2] Future Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the upcoming launches of the upgraded Wanjie M7 and the new M8 model, which are expected to significantly boost revenue in Q2 2025 [9] - The company is also exploring opportunities to become a supplier for rising automotive brands like Leap Motor, which is experiencing rapid sales growth [9] - The release of production capacity in Huizhou and Zhengzhou is expected to alleviate capacity constraints and enhance the company's core business performance [10]
债券市场专题研究:近期焦煤上涨对债市是否有影响?
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-06 05:19
债券市场专题研究 报告日期:2025 年 06 月 06 日 近期焦煤上涨对债市是否有影响? ——债券市场专题研究 核心观点 本轮黑色系商品期货价格走强在技术面及基本面上均以消息面驱动的反弹为主,不构 成趋势性反转,因此对债市影响有限。 证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 ❑ 从基本面及技术面如何理解焦煤主力合约价格异动上涨? 本轮黑色系商品期货价格走强更多或为下行趋势中的反弹而非反转,基本面来看 黑色系商品多数仍然供需格局偏弱,现货价格处于中期下行趋势中。从技术面来 看,领涨的焦煤品种主力合约在本轮反弹中出现的信号强于钢铁、铁矿石等品种, 但总体来看趋势仍旧偏弱,做多仍需谨慎入场。 ❑ 本轮焦煤主力合约价格异动上涨对债市影响如何? 对应债券市场,由于黑色系商品期货总体周期性价格走势较为一致,而黑色系商 品期货价格走强多数情形下同样会对债市形成压制。但综合前述分析,本轮黑色 系商品期货价格走强在技术面及基本面上均以消息面驱动的反弹为主,不构成趋 势性反转,因此对债市影响有限,对债市的关注点仍然应该落脚在资金面、央行 操作、中美谈判进展等方面。 ❑ 风险提示 技术分析具有一定局限性;宏观经济政策出 ...
浙商早知道-20250606
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-06 01:06
证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期:2025 年 06 月 06 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 06 月 06 日 :王禾 执业证书编号:S1230512110001 :021-80105901 :wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要观点 【浙商宏观 李超/林成炜/廖博/费瑾】宏观深度报告:稳定币详解——20250605 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势:6 月 5 日上证指数上涨 0.23%,沪深 300 上涨 0.23%,科创 50 上涨 1.04%,中证 1000 上涨 0.72%,创业板 指上涨 1.17%,恒生指数上涨 1.07%。 行业:6 月 5 日表现最好的行业分别是通信(+2.62%)、电子(+2.31%)、计算机(+2.12%)、传媒(+1.27%)、机 械设备(+0.98%),表现最差的行业分别是美容护理(-3.07%)、纺织服饰(-1.81%)、农林牧渔(-1.79%)、综合 (-1.3%)、医药生物(-1.01%)。 资金:6 月 5 日全 A 总成交额为 13169.62 亿元,南下资金净流入 ...
优刻得深度报告:从响应DeepSeek看优刻得,云计算价值重估进行时
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-06 00:23
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is a leading third-party cloud computing service provider in China, focusing on IaaS and PaaS, while expanding into high-value products like big data and AI [1][17] - The launch of DeepSeek models significantly lowers deployment barriers and costs, benefiting cloud computing vendors as demand for inference increases [2][45] - The company's quick response to DeepSeek model releases showcases its industry insight and execution capabilities, positioning it as a preferred choice for data-sensitive clients [3][48] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1,849 million, 2,156 million, and 2,459 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +23.03%, +16.58%, and +14.08% respectively [4][63] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of -105 million, 5 million, and 100 million yuan in the same period [4][63] - The report employs a PS valuation method, with a 2026 projected PS of 4 times compared to a peer average of 6 times [4][63] Business Model and Product Matrix - The company offers a comprehensive cloud product matrix, including public, private, and hybrid cloud services, with public cloud revenue expected to grow significantly due to lower deployment costs for models [1][17][65] - The hybrid cloud model allows seamless integration of local infrastructure with public cloud resources, catering to industries with strict regulatory requirements [23][65] - The company has developed various products for AI applications, including a smart computing platform and a model service platform, enhancing its service offerings [25][63] Management and Team - The management team has a strong technical background, with the chairman having over 20 years of experience in the industry and recognition for his contributions [41][44] - The company has a stable employee structure, with high revenue generation per employee, indicating operational efficiency [36][37]
ESG体系下的AI研究(一):多维投资增效,防范伦理风险
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-05 14:23
Group 1: AI and ESG Investment Infrastructure - AI is expected to significantly enhance ESG investment infrastructure by addressing challenges such as high compliance costs and difficulties in data acquisition and analysis[2] - AI can help regulatory bodies reduce tracking costs and improve the implementation of ESG policies through dynamic monitoring and cross-validation systems[2] - Companies can utilize AI tools like knowledge graphs to analyze policies and automate compliance reporting, thereby lowering compliance costs and encouraging ESG practices[2] Group 2: AI's Role in Investment Strategy and Marketing - Traditional ESG data faces issues like low update frequency and high processing costs; AI can streamline data collection and analysis, providing timely insights for investors[3] - Machine learning algorithms can assist in constructing and selecting factor strategies, optimizing risk-return profiles for investors[3] - Generative AI can significantly reduce marketing costs by generating marketing strategies and content, enhancing investor engagement[3] Group 3: Responsible AI and Ethical Risk Management - The integration of responsible AI principles with ESG frameworks can help identify companies with ethical risks associated with AI, aiding investors in risk management[4] - AI's dual impact on environmental, social, and governance aspects necessitates a robust ethical risk analysis framework to mitigate potential negative consequences[4] - Investors can leverage communication with companies to gather information on AI governance measures, enhancing their understanding of associated risks[4] Group 4: Risk Considerations - Potential risks include slower-than-expected economic recovery, instability of AI models, and fluctuations in market sentiment and preferences[5]
美团-W:美团25Q1业绩点评:无惧外卖竞争,坚定生态投入-20250605
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-05 00:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Views - Meituan, as a leader in local lifestyle services, is expected to maintain its core competitive advantages despite short-term competition in the food delivery sector. The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 390.41 billion, CNY 445.04 billion, and CNY 507.46 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.65%, 13.99%, and 14.03% [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, Meituan's revenue increased by 18.1% year-on-year to CNY 86.557 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 1.3%. Non-IFRS net profit rose by 46.2% to CNY 10.948 billion, also above expectations by 12.56% [6]. - The core local business revenue grew by 17.8% to CNY 64.325 billion, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus by 1.49%. Operating profit increased by 39.1% to CNY 13.491 billion, exceeding expectations by 10.21% [6]. - New business revenue rose by 19.2% to CNY 22.232 billion, also above consensus by 1.54%, with operating losses reduced by 17.54% to CNY -2.273 billion [6]. Expense Management - Sales expenses increased by 11.96% to CNY 15.55 billion, primarily due to promotional and advertising costs. The sales expense ratio decreased by 1 percentage point to 18% due to improved operational efficiency [6]. - R&D expenses rose by 15.44% to CNY 5.772 billion, reflecting increased investment in AI, while the R&D expense ratio slightly decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 6.67% [6]. Business Segments - The food delivery segment is expected to see healthy growth with significant investments planned for the next three years, totaling over CNY 100 billion to support various merchants [6]. - The flash purchase segment continues to show strong growth, particularly in low-tier markets, with a significant increase in order volume during key promotional periods [6]. - The in-store travel segment is experiencing robust growth in lower-tier markets, with the launch of a membership program aimed at increasing transaction frequency and cross-selling efficiency [6]. Future Outlook - For Q2 2025, the company is expected to maintain its core advantages and solidify its platform ecosystem, despite potential short-term profit fluctuations due to intensified competition in the food delivery sector [6].