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美团-W(03690):25Q1业绩点评:无惧外卖竞争,坚定生态投入
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-05 00:13
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Views - Meituan, as a leader in local lifestyle services, is expected to maintain its core competitive advantages despite short-term competition in the food delivery sector. The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 390.41 billion, CNY 445.04 billion, and CNY 507.46 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.65%, 13.99%, and 14.03% [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, Meituan's revenue increased by 18.1% year-on-year to CNY 86.557 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 1.3%. Non-IFRS net profit rose by 46.2% to CNY 10.948 billion, also surpassing expectations by 12.56% [6]. - The core local business revenue grew by 17.8% year-on-year to CNY 64.325 billion, with operating profit increasing by 39.1% to CNY 13.491 billion, both exceeding consensus estimates [6]. - New business revenue increased by 19.2% year-on-year to CNY 22.232 billion, with operating losses reduced by 17.54% to CNY -2.273 billion, outperforming expectations [6]. Expense Management - Sales expenses rose by 11.96% year-on-year to CNY 15.55 billion, primarily due to increased promotional and advertising costs. The sales expense ratio decreased by 1 percentage point to 18% due to improved operational efficiency [6]. - R&D expenses increased by 15.44% year-on-year to CNY 5.772 billion, driven by increased investments in AI. The R&D expense ratio slightly decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 6.67% [6]. Business Segments - The food delivery segment is expected to see healthy growth with a focus on refined operations, supported by a planned investment of CNY 100 billion over the next three years [6]. - The flash purchase segment continues to show strong growth, particularly in low-tier markets, with significant increases in order volume during promotional periods [6]. - The in-store travel segment is experiencing robust growth in lower-tier markets, with the launch of the "Meituan Membership" program aimed at enhancing transaction frequency and cross-selling efficiency [6]. Future Outlook - For Q2 2025, the company is expected to maintain its core advantages and solidify its platform ecosystem, despite potential short-term profit fluctuations due to intensified competition in the food delivery sector [6].
浙商早知道-20250605
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-04 23:30
证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期:2025 年 06 月 05 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 06 月 05 日 : 张延兵 执业证书编号:S1230511010020 : 021-80106048 : zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要点评 ❑ 大势:周三上证指数上涨 0.4%,沪深 300 上涨 0.4%,科创 50 上涨 0.5%,中证 1000 上涨 0.9%,创业板指上涨 1.1%,恒生指数上涨 0.6%。 ❑ 行业:周三表现最好的行业分别是美容护理(+2.6%)、综合(+2.5%)、纺织服饰(+2.4%)、通信(+1.8%)、轻工 制造(+1.6%),表现最差的行业分别是交通运输(-0.6%)、国防军工(-0.2%)、公用事业(-0.1%)、银行 (+0.0%)、石油石化(+0.4%)。 ❑ 资金:周三沪深两市总成交额为 11530 亿元,南下资金净流入 35.2 亿港元。 ❑ 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王华君/何家恺】中力股份(603194)公司点评:拟建设泰国工厂推进全球化产能布局,智能 搬运机器人打开空间——20250603 ❑ 【浙商金属新材料 王南清/沈 ...
2025年6月大类资产配置月报:新一轮不确定性上行周期或开启-20250604
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-04 12:18
证券研究报告 | 金融工程月报 金融工程月报 报告日期:2025 年 06 月 04 日 新一轮不确定性上行周期或开启 ——2025 年 6 月大类资产配置月报 核心观点 关税风险+美债利率上行风险,新一轮不确定性上行周期或将开启,风险资产或将面临 一定调整压力,建议逢低配置黄金以提高组合防御性。 ❑ 关税风险+美债利率上行风险,新一轮不确定性上行周期或将开启。 4 月初美国对等关税政策宣布后,全球风险资产巨震,而后随着关税的部分暂停 及谈判的推进,A 股、美股、铜等主要大类资产均已基本修复对等关税以来的跌 幅,并于 5 月 15 日前后开始窄幅震荡,等待进一步的催化。短暂平静后,我们认 为新一轮不确定性上行周期或将开启:一方面,90 天的关税暂停窗口期即将于 7 月初结束,而目前美国尚未与除英国外的主要经济体达成贸易协定,由于关税暂 停窗口是否会继续延长仍存不确定性,随着时间推进,市场可能将逐步开始交易 关税不确定性的新一轮走高。另一方面,美债利率的上行风险似乎更加迫在眉睫。 5 月 28 日,美国国际贸易法院裁定暂停特朗普政府于 4 月 2 日宣布的对等关税政 策,虽然后续迅速反转,但美债市场的初期表现隐 ...
2025年中期策略展望:震中带韧,应对为王
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-04 09:45
证券研究报告 震中带韧,应对为王 ——2025年中期策略展望 2025年6月 浙商固收 | 分析师 | 覃汉 | 沈聂萍 | 崔正阳 | 郑莎 | 陈婷婷 | 章恒豪 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | qinhan@stocke.com. | shennieping@stocke. | cuizhengyang@stocke.c | zhengsha@stocke.co | chentinting01@stocke.c | zhanghenghao@stoc | | | cn | com.cn | om.cn | m.cn | om.cn | ke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080005 | S1230524020005 | S1230524020004 | S1230524080012 | S1230525050001 | S1230123090052 | 目 录 03 机构行为:曲线熊平,超额难寻 04 权益市场:生态重构,韧性向上 01 宏观叙事:关税博弈,东稳西荡 02 货币政策:中性偏松,精准调控 05 ...
浙商早知道-20250604
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-03 23:33
证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期:2025 年 06 月 04 日 浙商早知道 市场总览 重要推荐 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2025 年 06 月 04 日 :王禾 执业证书编号:S1230512110001 :021-80105901 :wanghe@stocke.com.cn 大势:6 月 3 日上证指数上涨 0.43%,沪深 300 上涨 0.31%,科创 50 上涨 0.48%,中证 1000 上涨 0.72%,创业板 指上涨 0.48%,恒生指数上涨 1.53%。 行业:6 月 3 日表现最好的行业分别是美容护理(+3.86%)、纺织服饰(+2.53%)、综合(+2.02%)、银行 (+1.98%)、农林牧渔(+1.8%),表现最差的行业分别是家用电器(-2.1%)、钢铁(-1.37%)、煤炭(-0.84%)、建 筑材料(-0.52%)、环保(-0.4%)。 资金:6 月 3 日全 A 总成交额为 11638.3 亿元,南下资金净流入 39.05 亿港元。 【浙商银行 梁凤洁/邱冠华/徐安妮】南京银行(601009)公司深度: ...
浙商早知道-20250603
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-02 23:50
证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期:2025 年 06 月 03 日 2025 年 06 月 03 日 :王禾 执业证书编号:S1230512110001 :021-80105901 :wanghe@stocke.com.cn 重要观点 【浙商宏观 李超/林成炜/廖博/潘高远/费瑾/陈冀】宏观深度报告:5 月经济前瞻:供需缺口待弥合,关注实物工作 量落地——20250602 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 浙商早知道 宏观 2、核心观点 5 月基本面呈现修复态势,抢出口或带动供需同步改善,但物价水平暂未反弹,量价两个维度或延续背离。 后期走势仍需观察基本面的波动性,特别是外贸修复的斜率与可持续性。 1)市场看法 市场预期财政政策有望加码。 2)观点变化 浙商早报 1 重要观点 1.1 【浙商宏观 李超/林成炜/廖博/潘高远/费瑾/陈冀】宏观深度报告:5 月经济前瞻:供需缺口待 弥合,关注实物工作量落地——20250602 1、所在领域 持平 3)驱动因素 国家统计局发布 5 月官方 PMI 数据。 4)与市场差异 我们认为宏观政策兼具逆周期与跨周 ...
钢铁周报:重视淡季的底部布局
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-02 10:23
证券研究报告 钢铁周报:重视淡季的底部布局 行业评级:看好 2025 年 06 月 02 日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 价格 | | 【浙商金属 沈皓俊】 | | | 钢铁周度数据 | | (2025年6月1日) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格 | | | | 周涨跌幅 | | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | | | | 上证指数 | | 3 , | 347 | 0 . | 0% | | -0 . | 1% | | | 沪深300 | | 3 , | 840 | -1 . | 1% | | -2 . | 4% | | 板 | SW钢铁指数 | | 2 , | 124 | -0 . | 7% | | 1 . | 0% | | 块 | ...
钢铁周报:重视淡季的底部布局-20250602
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-02 10:03
行业评级:看好 2025 年 06 月 02 日 证券研究报告 钢铁周报:重视淡季的底部布局 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 价格 | | 【浙商金属 沈皓俊】 | | | 钢铁周度数据 | | (2025年6月1日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格 | | | | 周涨跌幅 | | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | | | 上证指数 | | 3 , | 347 | 0 . | 0% | -0 . | 1% | | | 沪深300 | | 3 , | 840 | -1 . | 1% | -2 . | 4% | | 板 | SW钢铁指数 | | 2 , | 124 | -0 . | 7% | 1 . | 0% | | 块 | | SW普钢指数 | 2 , ...
可转债周度跟踪:风偏下行,稳健优先-20250602
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-02 09:09
证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期:2025 年 06 月 02 日 风偏下行,稳健优先 ——可转债周度跟踪 核心观点 本周权益与转债市场胜率相对不足,各宽基和转债指数涨跌各异,短期或因关税扰动 而承压。5 月以来市场上涨更多呈现超跌反弹特征,投资者基于赔率考量在市场调整 时积极入场,叠加中央汇金等机构对权益市场的持续看好,驱动市场行情持续走高。 考虑到目前转债市场潜在的风险释放压力,哑铃配置策略或继续占优。 ❑ 风险提示 经济基本面改善不足;国内流动性收紧;海外风险事件超预期;历史经验不代表 未来 分析师:沈聂萍 执业证书号:S1230524020005 shennieping@stocke.com.cn 研究助理:章恒豪 zhanghenghao@stocke.com.cn 相关报告 1 《脉冲式交易策略或仍适用》 2025.06.01 2 《央行持续净投放,呵护跨月 资金面》 2025.06.01 3 《波澜不惊,择机配置》 2025.05.31 正文目录 | 1 市场观察 … | | --- | | 2 转债市场跟踪 … | | 2.1 转债行情方面…………… ...
食饮行业周报(2025年5月第4期):新消费掘金低位股,白酒待筑底拐点
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-02 02:20
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The new consumption trend continues, focusing on low-priced/undervalued stocks with potential catalysts, particularly in the food sector, new retail channels, and health products [2][29]. - The report highlights the need to pay attention to the white liquor sector, which may face pressure in the second quarter, suggesting a focus on leading brands with strong market positions [16][29]. Summary by Sections White Liquor Sector - The white liquor sector is currently under pressure, with a recommendation to prioritize leading brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu for mid-term investments [16][29]. - Recent policies regarding public receptions may impact white liquor consumption, but the overall effect is expected to be limited due to a shift from government to business consumption since 2016 [7][16]. - The report notes that the white liquor sector is still in a bottoming phase, with opportunities for mid-term positioning in leading brands [4][16]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector shows a continuation of the new consumption trend, with a focus on potential catalysts in food categories, new retail channels, and health products [2][29]. - Recommended stocks in this sector include Jin Zai Foods, New Dairy, Anji Foods, and others, with a focus on companies that can leverage new retail opportunities [2][29]. Market Performance - From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.08%, while non-dairy beverages and other liquor categories saw gains of 8.96% and 7.93%, respectively, with white liquor declining by 2.80% [2][35]. - Specific stocks such as Tianyoude Liquor and Huazhi Liquor showed positive performance, while others like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu experienced declines [3][39]. Price Trends - The report provides insights into the pricing trends of key white liquor brands, indicating stable prices for Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, with slight fluctuations noted [15][55].