Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to experience a period of initial stagnation followed by growth, with March anticipated to bring absolute returns for bank stocks due to reduced market pressure on the banking sector and decreased uncertainty regarding large state-owned banks' capital increases [4][5] - The forecast for 2025 indicates that listed banks will face negative growth pressures in Q1, but overall profit growth is expected to recover throughout the year, with a projected revenue decline of 5.1% and a profit decline of 0.2% in Q1, improving to -2.9% and +0.9% for the full year [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation of capital increases for large banks, which could alleviate uncertainties and support stock performance [5] Summary by Sections Driving Factors - **Scale**: Asset growth for listed banks is expected to remain stable, with a projected growth rate of 8.2% for 2025, similar to 2024 [2] - **Interest Margin**: A decline in interest margins is anticipated, with an expected year-on-year decrease of 13 basis points for 2025 [2] - **Non-Interest Income**: Non-interest income growth is expected to slow, with a projected decline of 4.2% in Q1 2025 [2] - **Impairment**: Credit costs are expected to stabilize at 0.71% in Q1 2025, with pressure primarily from small and micro loans [3] Performance Forecast - **Listed Banks**: The forecast for Q1 2025 shows a negative profit growth of 0.2%, with a recovery expected throughout the year [4] - **Types of Banks**: City commercial banks are expected to lead in performance, with projected profit growth of 4.3% in Q1 2025, while state-owned and joint-stock banks are expected to see declines [4] Key Focus Areas - **Capital Increases**: The issuance of 500 billion yuan in special government bonds to support large banks' capital replenishment is a key focus, which could reduce uncertainty [5] - **Competition Landscape**: Regulatory measures are improving the competitive landscape in the banking sector, potentially leading to a recovery in interest margins for corporate loans [7][8] Investment Strategy - The strategy suggests a focus on high-dividend stable bank stocks and quality banks with improvement potential, with specific recommendations for stocks such as CITIC Bank, China Merchants Bank, and others [10]

证券研究报告 从红利收割，到价值重塑 —代运营行业报告 行业评级：看好 2025年03月3日 | 分析师 | 汤秀洁 | 分析师 | 吴安琪 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证书编号 | S1230522070001 | 证书编号 | S1230524120004 | | 邮箱 | tangxiujie@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | wuanqi@stocke.com.cn | 摘要 1、电商化早期，代运营企业凭借股东、区位等资源信息壁垒，具备极强的不可替代性。2016-2019年行业规模迅速扩张，CAGR达23.6%。 1）网络零售规模快速提升，2015-2020年CAGR达25%，代运营解决品牌电商化痛点。早期淘系流量玩法复杂，而品牌普遍缺乏线上运营经验。头 部代运营企业凭借阿里系资源优势，叠加对淘系等中心化平台搜索优化、活动排期等规则理解的信息化优势，成为品牌快速触网的唯一选择。通过 一站式服务满足品牌线上开店、流量运营、售后客服等全链条需求。 2）头部代运营企业升维：从服务商到赋能者，轻资产模式下形成高议价能力。行业初期阶段丽人丽妆等企业通过覆盖运营/营销/供应 ...

Economic Overview - February's economic fundamentals show signs of recovery, with both supply and demand improving due to the impact of the Spring Festival, although production recovery outpaces demand[1] - The manufacturing PMI for February is recorded at 50.2%, a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points, indicating a quicker recovery for large enterprises compared to small and medium-sized enterprises[1] - The GDP growth target for 2025 is expected to be around 5%, with Q1 GDP growth potentially reaching 5.1%[1] Industrial Production - The industrial production growth rate for January-February is projected at 5.4% year-on-year, supported by stable recovery policies[2] - The manufacturing investment growth is anticipated at 9.3%, while real estate development investment is expected to decline by 7.4%[4] Consumer Trends - The retail sales growth rate for January-February is estimated at 4.3%, up from 3.7% previously, driven by festive consumption[3] - However, passenger vehicle sales are expected to decline year-on-year, indicating a slower start to the automotive market compared to previous years[3] Investment and Exports - Fixed asset investment growth (excluding rural households) is projected at 4.4%, with infrastructure investment growing by 5.3%[4] - Exports are expected to increase by 6.4% year-on-year, while imports are projected to grow by 1.9%, highlighting structural opportunities in exports due to competitive pricing[5] Inflation and Employment - February's CPI is expected to show a slight decline of -0.4% year-on-year, while PPI is projected to decrease by -2.4%[8] - The urban unemployment rate for February is estimated at 5.3%, reflecting seasonal frictional unemployment as workers return to cities post-holiday[9] Monetary Policy Outlook - February's new RMB loans are expected to be around 1 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 450 billion yuan year-on-year, with M2 growth slowing to 6.8%[10] - A potential reserve requirement ratio cut is anticipated in March, with an overall expectation of 100 basis points reduction in reserve requirements throughout 2025[11]

证券研究报告 | 市场评论 | 中国策略 俄乌冲突若平息，如何掘金？ ——与俄乌停战相关的投资线索 核心观点 三周年之际，俄乌冲突有望迎来平息曙光，近期部分资产或已定价冲突缓和。我们基 于俄乌冲突平息的情景假设梳理出三条核心投资线索：第一，市场风险偏好有望提升、 全球资金再配置，对 A 股而言既利于小盘成长、又利于部分价值。第二，行业维度， 关注重建需求、成本减负、新能源、稀土等相关投资机会。第三，商品维度，黄金、 原油短期或均面临一定的调整压力，但金价中长期仍有支撑，可关注阶段性回调机会。 ❑ 俄乌冲突三周年之际或迎平息曙光 2 月 18 日，俄美沙特会谈达成四点共识，其中包括"尽快结束乌克兰冲突"；2 月 24 日，乌总统泽连斯基明确表示"希望在 2025 年结束俄乌冲突"; 2 月 25 日，联 合国大会通过了《推进实现乌克兰全面、公正和持久和平》的决议草案。近期一 系列事件均指向持续三年的俄乌冲突有望迎来停战曙光，我们基于俄乌冲突平息 的情景假设梳理出如下投资线索供投资者参考。 ❑ 短期市场反应：欧股、欧元回暖，部分资产或已定价冲突缓和 部分欧洲权益市场资产正在定价俄乌冲突缓和。截至 2 月 27 日 ...

证券研究报告 | 深度研究 | ESG 及绿色金融 深度研究 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 04 日 ESG 投资框架与工具·产品与战略篇：震荡已过，奋楫者先 ——ESG 系列深度研究报告 核心观点 全球 ESG 投资市场有望在 2025 年迎来"以实为基"的稳步复苏，这种复苏不仅体现 在规模和产品数量上，更体现在策略应用深度、信息披露质量和实际投资收益上；在 海外发达市场出现政策调整的大背景下，今年将会是中国更加积极参与全球可持续金 融监管体系、提升政策话语权的关键一年。 ❑ 风险提示 经济修复不及预期；ESG 相关政策推行不及预期；市场情绪与偏好波动风险 分析师：祁星 执业证书号：S1230524120002 qixing@stocke.com.cn 研究助理：施文燊 shiwenshen@stocke.com.cn 相关报告 1 《ESG 投资框架与工具·固收 篇：避险增利，守正出新》 2025.03.04 2 《ESG 投资框架与工具·权益 篇：脱虚向实，行稳致远》 2025.03.04 3 《ESG 投资框架与工具·风险 篇：海纳百川，化险为机》 2025.03.04 http://www.st ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company demonstrated stable performance with a revenue increase of 9% year-on-year, reaching 1.67 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 19%, amounting to 450 million yuan [2][5] - The AI-driven initiatives and scale effects contributed to an improvement in gross margin, with the gross margin for the core business, China Manufacturing Network, reaching 80% [3][5] - The number of members for the China Manufacturing Network and AI Makai has significantly increased, with AI Makai reaching nearly 9,000 users by the end of 2024 [4][5] - Buyer traffic has surged, particularly in Southeast Asia, with a 59% increase in traffic and a 33% increase in business opportunities [5] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 1.67 billion yuan, with projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 1.88 billion yuan, 2.08 billion yuan, and 2.25 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 13%, 10%, and 8% [5][12] - The forecasted net profit for 2024 is 450 million yuan, with expected increases to 536 million yuan in 2025, 621 million yuan in 2026, and 714 million yuan in 2027, indicating growth rates of 19%, 16%, and 15% respectively [5][12] - The company maintains a projected P/E ratio of 24, 21, and 18 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5][12]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HK$48.81 based on a 35x PE for 2025 [6][8]. Core Insights - The company is a leading provider of online investment solutions in China, benefiting from a strong correlation with capital market conditions, with a revenue CAGR of 64% from 2019 to 2023 [1][16]. - The online investment decision-making solutions market in China is expected to reach RMB 87.2 billion by 2026, growing at a CAGR of approximately 20.7% from 2021 to 2026 [2][29]. - The company has significant channel advantages and a rich product matrix, leveraging a comprehensive media flow channel strategy [3][43]. Summary by Sections 1. Leading Company in Online Investment Solutions - The company adheres to a "technology + research" dual-driven strategy, focusing on online investment consulting and educational services [1][16]. - The management team has extensive experience in the financial and investment advisory sectors, providing a solid foundation for the company's growth [17][19]. - The company's performance is closely tied to market conditions, with a revenue CAGR of 64% from 2019 to 2023, and a shift from negative to positive net profit [1][24]. 2. Expanding Online Investment Solutions Market - The online investment decision-making solutions market is projected to grow significantly, driven by rising disposable income and increased awareness of personal wealth management [2][29]. - The company ranks first in market share for online high-end investment education services as of 2021 [2][34]. 3. Significant Channel Advantages and Diverse Product Matrix - The company utilizes a variety of media channels, including traditional and social media, to enhance brand exposure and customer acquisition [3][46]. - The product offerings are designed to meet diverse customer needs, with a focus on high-end investment education and financial information services [4][56]. - The company has initiated a product line integration to enhance service offerings, including the introduction of small-scale products to attract new users [4][59]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to see significant profit growth, with projected net profit increases of 37% and 125% for 2024 and 2025, respectively [6][13]. - The financial performance is closely linked to market activity, with a forecasted EPS of 0.58 and 1.31 for 2024 and 2025 [6][13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that while all conditions are in place for market recovery, the lack of liquidity remains a significant barrier [5][6] - The report notes that the bond market has experienced a notable decline, with 22 out of the last 30 working days seeing the R007 rate exceed 2%, indicating a persistent tight liquidity environment [5][6] - It highlights that the credit spread for medium to high-grade 1-2 year perpetual bonds has risen to the 40%-60% percentile level over the past three years, reflecting increased risk perception [5][6] Group 2 - The report suggests that most short-term bonds have adjusted to attractive price points, but any strategy remains speculative until liquidity pressures ease [6] - For low-risk preferences, it recommends focusing on large bank certificates of deposit and short-duration perpetual bonds, as the current yield curve shows inversion, enhancing defensive attributes [6][7] - For medium-risk preferences, it points out that 3-5 year perpetual bonds are at historically high levels, providing sufficient yield protection [6][7] Group 3 - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in short-duration real estate bonds, particularly those from state-owned enterprises, which can offer yields of 2.5%-2.7% for one-year maturities [7] - It emphasizes that the current market conditions present a high value for one-year AA- rated urban investment bonds, with spreads at historically elevated levels [7] - The report also discusses various factors influencing the bond market, including liquidity shifts, economic data, and credit risk perceptions, which could impact future investment strategies [8]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 公用事业 公用事业 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 02 日 24 年风光装机显著增长，清洁能源消费占比持续提升 ——环保与公用事业行业周报 投资要点 ❑ 行情回顾 本周，公用事业板块指数下跌 1.09%，涨跌幅在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第 19， 跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.13%；本周，环保板块指数下跌 0.67%，涨跌幅在 32 个申万 一级行业中排名第 15，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.55%。 ❑ 公用事业行业，本周重点关注个股组合：佛燃能源+东方电子+中国核电。 A.绿电运营板块。去年以来政策推动典型高耗能行业参与绿证绿电交易，绿电环 境价值有望进一步兑现；此外新能源全面入市有望带动电价下行，叠加电网发债 持续推进下绿电企业国补欠补问题有望改善。考虑到当前绿电估值已处价值洼地， 尤其是港股绿电普遍处于破净状态，后续可进一步关注新能源大基地项目落地， 标的包括受益于福建海风竞配落地的中闽能源（纯海风标的）和福能股份（火电 +海风），以及新天绿能、嘉泽新能、云南能投、金开新能、中绿电、晶科科技， 此外建议关注估值较低的港股龙源电力（H）、大唐新能源（H）、新天绿色 ...

证券研究报告 家电+AI，拥抱智能化时代 ——家电标的AI布局梳理 2025年3月2日 行业评级：看好 分析师 张云添 分析师 文煊 邮箱 zhangyuntian@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 wenxuan@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230524020006 证书编号 S1230523120003 核心观点 2 ◆ 家电领域正加速拥抱AI技术，头部企业纷纷通过多元化的战略布局，推动产品智能化升级与业务拓展，本篇报告主要对家电标的在AI领域的布 局进行梳理。 • 科沃斯在智能传感器、人机交互和医疗服务等多领域深入布局，其全资子公司氪见（南京）科技有限公司专注智能传感器产品，同时投资多家 企业，探索AI情感交互技术及拓展医疗服务应用场景，人形机器人领域布局包括投资睿尔曼智能（超轻量仿人机械臂）和仙工智能（控制器）。 • 石头科技暂无相关股权布局，近期石头科技的APP接入Deepseek-R1，并推出行业首款机械手臂产品G30 Space，搭载多项先进技术，提升品 牌影响力及高端市场份额，为家用服务机器人发展提供新思路。 • 德昌股份通过与五家企业战略合作，共同建设创新中心，推动人形机器人产 ...