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携程集团-S(09961)25Q1点评报告:利润略超预期,海外投放加大
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-27 10:10
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company slightly exceeded profit expectations in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 138.30 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and operating profit (Non-GAAP) at 40.43 billion, up 7.4% year-on-year [6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 624.84 billion, 705.27 billion, and 793.32 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.24%, 12.87%, and 12.48% [2] - The company is expanding its overseas investments, which has led to a slight decline in profit margins, with a gross margin of 80.4% in Q1 2025, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The international OTA platform bookings grew over 60% year-on-year, and inbound tourism increased by over 100% [6] - The company is accelerating its AI strategy, which is expected to enhance customer service efficiency significantly [6] Financial Summary - The projected net profit for the company is 169.59 billion, 199.39 billion, and 226.82 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a year-on-year change of -0.63%, +17.57%, and +13.75% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 23.77, 27.94, and 31.79 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2] - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 275.05 billion, 297.69 billion, and 329.00 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7]
携程集团-S(09961):25Q1点评报告:利润略超预期,海外投放加大
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-27 09:17
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 profit slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 138.30 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and operating profit (Non-GAAP) at 40.43 billion, up 7.4% year-on-year [6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 624.84 billion, 705.27 billion, and 793.32 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.24%, 12.87%, and 12.48% [2] - The company is expanding its overseas investments, contributing to revenue growth, with international OTA platform bookings increasing over 60% year-on-year [6] - The company is accelerating its AI strategy, which is expected to enhance customer service efficiency significantly [6] Financial Summary - The forecasted revenue and net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 are as follows: - Revenue: 624.84 billion (2025), 705.27 billion (2026), 793.32 billion (2027) - Net Profit: 169.59 billion (2025), 199.39 billion (2026), 226.82 billion (2027) [2][7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 23.77 yuan in 2025, 27.94 yuan in 2026, and 31.79 yuan in 2027 [2][7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 19X in 2025, 16X in 2026, and 14X in 2027 [2]
浙商证券浙商早知道-20250527
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-26 23:45
证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期:2025 年 05 月 27 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 05 月 27 日 :王禾 执业证书编号:S1230512110001 :021-80105901 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势:5 月 26 日上证指数下跌 0.05%,沪深 300 下跌 0.57%,科创 50 上涨 0.17%,中证 1000 上涨 0.65%,创业板 指下跌 0.8%,恒生指数下跌 1.35%。 行业:5 月 26 日表现最好的行业分别是传媒(+2.14%)、计算机(+1.39%)、环保(+1.22%)、通信(+1.1%)、轻工 制造(+1.04%),表现最差的行业分别是汽车(-1.78%)、医药生物(-1.08%)、综合(-0.86%)、银行(-0.75%)、家 用电器(-0.71%)。 资金:5 月 26 日全 A 总成交额为 10339 亿元,南下资金净流出 15.07 亿港元。 浙商早报 1 市场总览 :wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要观点 【浙商宏观 李超/林成炜/廖博/潘高远/费瑾】宏 ...
苑东生物(688513):2024&2025Q1业绩点评:麻醉管线持续迭代,创新+国际化驱动增长
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-26 14:22
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth driven by new product launches, international expansion, and innovation in drug development. The anesthetic pipeline continues to evolve, with several high-barrier products approved for market entry, which is anticipated to enhance the company's competitive edge in the anesthetic and analgesic sectors [10][12] Summary by Relevant Sections Growth Capability - In 2024, the company's chemical preparations generated revenue of 1.077 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 22.25%. Chemical raw materials achieved revenue of 121 million yuan, up 28.65%. CMO/CDMO services saw revenue of 65 million yuan, a significant increase of 111.59%. The company has undertaken 23 CMO/CDMO projects, indicating strong growth potential from new product launches and international business expansion [2] - The company plans to launch at least 10 generic drug products and submit at least 10 new product applications in 2025, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth in the coming years [2] Internationalization of Formulations - The company received FDA approval for its Nicardipine Hydrochloride Injection in September 2024, marking its first shipment to the U.S. market. The company is gradually expanding its international product offerings, with several ANDA applications submitted for various products [3] Competitive Position in Anesthesia - As of 2024, the company has launched 16 products in the anesthetic and analgesic fields, with over 20 in development. The market share for key products is strong, with the company's Nalmefene Hydrochloride Injection holding a 61.73% market share. Newly approved high-barrier products are expected to drive revenue growth [4] - The company is advancing its high-end generic drugs, improved new drugs, and innovative drugs in the anesthetic and analgesic sectors, which will help establish its brand and enhance core competitiveness [4] Innovation and R&D Acceleration - The company is accelerating its transition from generic to innovative drug development, with R&D expenditures exceeding 20% of revenue in 2024. Investment in innovative drugs accounts for nearly 30% of R&D spending, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [5] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.35 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 20.82%, with a net profit of 238 million yuan, up 5.15%. The net profit margin after excluding stock incentive expenses showed a stable growth trend [10][12] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 74.93%, a decrease of 5.08 percentage points, primarily due to declines in the gross margins of technical services, CMO/CDMO, and raw materials [11] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve EPS of 1.56, 1.83, and 2.19 yuan per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The current closing price corresponds to a PE ratio of 22 times for 2025 [12]
迈瑞医疗更新报告:2025年拐点已现,看好业绩修复
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-26 10:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to see a turning point in its domestic business in 2025 due to the anticipated recovery in local special bonds and monthly bidding for various medical devices. The international market is projected to grow significantly, driven by the company's high-end customer base and balanced revenue distribution across major regions, particularly in developing countries and Europe [1][2] - The company’s revenue from the life information and support segment decreased by 11.1% in 2024, while the minimally invasive surgery business grew over 30%. The international life information and support business achieved double-digit growth [2] - The in-vitro diagnostics segment saw a revenue increase of 10.8% in 2024, with international business growing over 30%. The company ranked third in the domestic market for chemiluminescence and surpassed 15% market share in biochemical business [3] - The medical imaging segment's revenue grew by 6.6% in 2024, with international business growing over 15%. The high-end ultrasound system Resona A20 generated over 400 million yuan in its first year [3] - The company's gross margin was 63.1% in 2024, a decrease of 3.0 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 32.0%, down 1.2 percentage points [4] - The company is expected to maintain stable growth from 2025 to 2027, driven by the global medical infrastructure wave and expansion in high-end markets [5] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 36,726 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.14%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 52,497 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 14.72% [12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is estimated at 11,668 million yuan, with a slight increase of 0.74% year-on-year. By 2027, it is projected to reach 16,943 million yuan, growing at 15.53% [12] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 9.62 yuan, increasing to 13.97 yuan by 2027 [12]
金属大典(2025年版)
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-26 08:23
证券研究报告 金属大典(2025年版) 行业评级:看好 2025年5月26日 n 邮箱 shenhaojun@stocke.com.c 证书编号 S1230523080011 证书编号 S1230523100001 邮箱 wangnanqing@stocke.com.cn 分析师 沈皓俊 分析师 王南清 研究助理 何玉静 沈家悦 张轩 01 铜业弹性表 | 添加标题 | | --- | 资料来源:公司年报,公司公告,公司公众号,浙商证券研究所。注: 2 2025-2027年产量数据为预测值,存在预测偏差风险。江西铜业 统计公司自有矿数据;云南铜业统计并表产量口径;金诚信2024-2026年产量中未统计Lubambe铜矿(因公告矿山处于技改阶段)。 电解铝股弹性表(2025年5月) 02 我们梳理了电解铝企业2025年产量弹性以及利润弹性: (1)从吨铝市值来看:目前云铝/宏桥最低,约为21000元/吨,中铝次之,电解铝资产较纯粹,资产价值亟待重估。 (2)从PE来看:由于产能基本固定,盈利能力成为电解铝公司比拼的核心要点,目前宏桥港股/神火/中铝港股PE 偏低。2025年氧化铝价格波动性走低,带动云铝/神火/ ...
钢铁周报:铁水顶部信号明显,但行业基本面仍健康-20250526
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-26 05:26
证券研究报告 钢铁周报:铁水顶部信号明显,但行业基本面仍健康 行业评级:看好 2025 年 05 月 26 日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 价格 | | 【浙商金属 沈皓俊】 | | 钢铁周度数据 | | | (2025年5月25日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格 | | | | 周涨跌幅 | | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | | | 上证指数 | | 3 , | 348 | -0 . | 6% | -0 . | 1% | | | 沪深300 | | 3 , | 882 | -0 . | 2% | -1 . | 3% | | 板 | SW钢铁指数 | | 2 , | 139 | -0 . | 9% | 1 . | 8% | | 块 | | SW ...
人形机器人行业报告:重视杭州新剑产业链
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-26 01:25
Investment Rating - The report rates the humanoid robot industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is accelerating towards mass production, with an estimated demand of approximately 2.1 million units in the manufacturing and domestic service sectors in China and the US by 2030, representing a market space of about 314.6 billion RMB [3][10] - Key components such as dexterous hands, planetary roller screws, and harmonic reducers are critical to the humanoid robot industry, with a projected market space of 102.2 billion RMB by 2030, and a CAGR of 141% from 2025 to 2030 [3][10] - Hangzhou Xinjian is a specialized enterprise focusing on precision transmission, actively investing in core components for humanoid robots, including dexterous hands and planetary roller screws [3][28] Summary by Sections Hangzhou Xinjian - Hangzhou Xinjian specializes in precision transmission components, including planetary roller screws and harmonic reducers, with a leading production capacity in the industry [3][28] - The company has shown steady growth from 2015 to 2022, with a revenue CAGR of 18% and a net profit CAGR of 32% [52][53] - The company has established partnerships with well-known manufacturers, providing components for various automotive models and achieving competitive pricing [60][62] Recommended Companies - Wuzhou Xinchun is collaborating with Hangzhou Xinjian to invest in planetary roller screws and harmonic reducers, with a total planned investment of approximately 1.5 billion RMB [3][73] - Jinwo Co., a leading domestic bearing manufacturer, is entering the robot sector, with plans to start screw business by the end of 2023 [3][74] Industry Progress - The humanoid robot industry is witnessing rapid industrialization, with major players entering the market and significant advancements in technology [4][6] - The report highlights the increasing penetration rates of humanoid robots in both manufacturing and domestic service sectors, with projections indicating substantial growth in demand [49]
浙商早知道-20250526
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-26 00:21
Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report recommends Junsheng Electronics (均胜电子, 600699) due to the recovery of automotive safety profitability, the arrival of new automotive electronic technologies, and the company's investment in humanoid robots, which is expected to accelerate performance release [5] - The report highlights Bubugao (步步高, 002251) as a strong candidate for investment, citing its successful restructuring and significant sales growth post-adjustment, with expectations for rapid profit improvement [6] - The report identifies AsiaInfo Technology (亚信科技, 01675) as a key player in the AI sector, benefiting from its partnership with Alibaba in large model delivery, which is expected to drive revenue growth [7][9] - The report recommends Boke Technology (步科股份, 688160) for its leadership in frameless torque motors and the growth potential in humanoid robotics [10] - Gree Electric Appliances (格力电器, 000651) is noted for its recovery in management and channel reforms, which are expected to drive performance beyond expectations [11] Group 2: Financial Projections and Valuations - For Junsheng Electronics, projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 64.53 billion, 66.45 billion, and 71.02 billion CNY, with net profits expected to grow at rates of 59.7%, 19.5%, and 17.9% respectively [5] - Bubugao's revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 7.75 billion, 9.55 billion, and 12.10 billion CNY, with a remarkable revenue growth rate of 126.01% in 2025 [6] - AsiaInfo Technology's revenue is forecasted to reach 6.915 billion, 7.461 billion, and 8.269 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 4.84%, 17.99%, and 15.25% [9] - Boke Technology's revenue is expected to be 684 million, 859 million, and 1.069 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with net profit growth rates of 76.0%, 26.2%, and 24.2% [10] - Gree Electric's projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 200.12 billion, 208.32 billion, and 216.82 billion CNY, with net profit growth rates of 10.32%, 7.99%, and 6.85% [12] Group 3: Market Insights and Trends - The report indicates that the automotive safety sector is stabilizing, with Junsheng Electronics expected to benefit from the recovery in profitability and the new technology production cycle [5] - Bubugao's restructuring has led to a significant increase in daily sales, with expectations for further improvements in profit margins as the company completes its store adjustments [6] - The AI industry is experiencing rapid growth, with AsiaInfo Technology positioned to capitalize on this trend through its comprehensive digital solutions [9] - The demand for frameless torque motors is expected to rise, driven by advancements in robotics and automation, benefiting Boke Technology [10] - Gree Electric is anticipated to see improved operational efficiency and profitability as it navigates through its channel reform phase [11]
特朗普核能复兴令点评:核电发展再强化,天然铀长牛可期,底部修复区间积极布局
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-25 13:52
证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 小金属 小金属 报告日期:2025 年 05 月 25 日 核电发展再强化,天然铀长牛可期,底部修复区间积极布局 ——特朗普核能复兴令点评 投资要点 ❑ 5 月 23 日,美国总统特朗普签署 4 项行政命令推动美国核能产业改革,包括扩 大美国核能规模、核能产业链、缩短核电项目审批周期等;此举或吹响美国核 电复兴号角,受政策影响,周五美股核能股普遍大涨。 我们认为,特朗普新政将进一步强化全球核电发展叙事蓝图,带动产业资本开支 强度提升,作为核电燃料,天然铀将显著受益此次远期核电需求预期增长,且天 然铀供需偏紧格局或将进一步强化,天然铀长牛可期。 ❑ 特朗普核能复兴令要点:加快审批、加快部署、扩展产业链 此次特朗普连续签署的 4 项行政令内容涵盖振兴美国核工业基础的多个方面,其 中重要内容主要包括: ❑ 核电发展叙事再强化,长坡厚雪未来可期 自 2019 年中国复批核电机组、2021 年全球主要国家陆续表态支持核电重启以 来,本轮核电复苏周期已持续深入多年,以中国为代表的发展中国家持续推动新 机组批准、建设、并网,核电发展趋势已极为明确。 "核电复兴令"意在重塑美国核工业与增强核电 ...