Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company demonstrated robust performance with a revenue of 43.03 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 791 million yuan, up 44% [1] - The company is focusing on professional development in outsourcing services, having added 30 large clients in 2024, with 14 being private enterprises [2] - The company is expected to benefit from close cooperation with leading technology firms, with optimistic trends in subsidies and strong performance certainty for 2025 [3] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from various services was as follows: outsourcing services 36.05 billion yuan (+14%), personnel management services 990 million yuan (-9%), compensation and benefits services 1.2 billion yuan (+5%), and recruitment and flexible employment 4.34 billion yuan (+13%) [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is expected to be 1.154 billion yuan, 983 million yuan, and 1.086 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.2X, 11.9X, and 10.8X [4] - Adjusted net profits excluding one-time gains from asset disposals are projected to be 870 million yuan, 980 million yuan, and 1.09 billion yuan for 2025-2027, indicating growth rates of 10.4%, 12.5%, and 10.5% respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a positive cycle driven by both domestic and overseas demand, with significant revenue growth and improved profitability expected in 2024 and Q1 2025 [3][4] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is expected to boost exports, with a notable increase in overseas market share and a recovery in the domestic cycle anticipated [4][5] Revenue Growth - In 2024, the total revenue of the five major engineering machinery manufacturers reached 259.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3% [6][11] - In Q1 2025, the total revenue reached 72.6 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 12% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11% [6][11] Profitability Improvement - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the five major manufacturers in 2024 was 17.9 billion, up 19% year-on-year [24] - In Q1 2025, the net profit reached 6.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 164% [24] Export Growth - In April 2025, export sales reached 9,595 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, with the "Belt and Road" region accounting for 64% of the total export value in Q1 2025, up 15% year-on-year [4][5] Domestic Market Recovery - Domestic sales in April 2025 reached 12,547 units, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, indicating a recovery in the domestic cycle [4][5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industry leaders such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Shantui, and others, while also paying attention to companies like Noli [5] Cash Flow and Financial Health - Operating cash flow for the five major manufacturers increased by 75% in 2024 and by 16% in Q1 2025, indicating improved operational quality [59][62] - The asset-liability ratio for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 57%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.7 percentage points and 1.1 percentage points, respectively [65]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company has demonstrated robust performance with a revenue of 43.03 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 791 million yuan, up 44% [1] - The company is focusing on the professional development of its outsourcing business, having added 30 large clients in 2024, with 14 being private enterprises [2] - The company is expected to benefit from close cooperation with leading technology firms, with optimistic trends in subsidies and strong performance certainty for the year [3] Revenue Overview - In 2024, the revenue breakdown by business segment shows outsourcing services at 36.05 billion yuan (up 14%), personnel management services at 990 million yuan (down 9%), compensation and benefits services at 1.2 billion yuan (up 5%), and recruitment and flexible employment at 4.34 billion yuan (up 13%) [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is expected to be 1.15 billion yuan, 983 million yuan, and 1.09 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 45.8%, -14.8%, and +10.5% [4] - The adjusted net profit excluding one-time gains from asset disposals is projected to be 870 million yuan, 980 million yuan, and 1.09 billion yuan for the same period, indicating a steady growth trajectory [4]

证券研究报告 工程机械：反转逻辑持续验证， 内外需共振盈利周期上行 ——工程机械行业2024年与2025Q1业绩综述 行业评级：看好（维持） 2025年5月16日 分析师 邱世梁 分析师 王华君 分析师 胡飘 邮箱 qiushiliang@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 wanghuajun@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 hupiao@stocke.com.cn 电话 18516256639 电话 18610723118 电话 13886125652 证书编号 S1230520050001 证书编号 S1230520080005 证书编号 S1230524040006 分析师 邱世梁 分析师 王华君 分析师 何家恺 研究助理 徐琛奇 邮箱 qiushiliang@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 wanghuajun@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 hejiakai@stocke.com.cn 研究助理 蒋逸 证书编号 S1230520050001 证书编号 S1230520080005 证书编号 S1230523080007 工程机械：反转逻辑持续验证中，海外与国内有望共振 1、回顾2024年&20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $3.6 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, primarily due to weakened demand in Asia and North America [1] - Adjusted EBITDA profit was $130 million, down 20.8% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was $48.2 million, down 41.9% year-on-year, indicating profit pressure under negative operating leverage [1] - The company anticipates revenues of $3.6 billion, $3.7 billion, and $3.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of $300 million, $347.8 million, and $397.2 million, reflecting a temporary performance pressure due to tariff policies and macroeconomic fluctuations [5] Regional Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue from Asia was $310 million, down 9.7% year-on-year, while North America generated $260 million, down 8.3% year-on-year. Europe, however, showed resilience with revenue of $180 million, flat year-on-year, and a 4.4% increase in fixed exchange rates [2] - The Indian market benefited from strategic adjustments, showing a fixed exchange rate revenue increase of 2.6%, while South Korea and China faced declines due to overall demand weakness [2] Brand Performance - Revenue by brand in Q1 2025 was $410 million for Samsonite, $190 million for TUMI, and $130 million for American Tourister, with TUMI showing relative resilience with a year-on-year decline of only 3.7% [3] - The company opened 9 new stores, bringing the total to 1,128, demonstrating confidence in growth despite a weakening retail environment [3] Profitability and Cost Structure - Gross margin for Q1 2025 was 59.4%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a lower proportion of high-margin sales from Asia [4] - The adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability due to rising expense ratios [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a P/E ratio of 9, 8, and 7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting the company's valuation amidst current market conditions [5] - The anticipated net profit for 2025 is $300 million, representing a 13.1% decline from the previous year, but expected to recover with a 15.8% increase in 2026 [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $3.6 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, and a decrease of 4.5% on a constant currency basis, primarily due to weakened demand in Asia and North America [1] - The adjusted EBITDA profit was $130 million, down 20.8% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was $48.2 million, down 41.9% year-on-year, indicating profit pressure under negative operating leverage [1] - Despite the short-term performance pressure due to tariff policies and macroeconomic fluctuations, the company maintains confidence in its three premium brand assets and anticipates a successful listing in the US to enhance liquidity [5] Regional Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, revenue by region showed: - Asia: $310 million, down 9.7% year-on-year, with India showing a constant currency growth of 2.6% due to strategic adjustments, while South Korea and China experienced declines [2] - North America: $260 million, down 8.3% year-on-year, with a 5.2% decline after excluding the impact of wholesalers' early purchases in Q4 2024 [2] - Europe: $180 million, flat year-on-year, with a 4.4% increase on a constant currency basis, driven by increasing brand penetration [2] - Latin America: $50 million, down 10.3% year-on-year, flat on a constant currency basis [2] Brand Performance Summary - Revenue by brand in Q1 2025: - Samsonite: $410 million, down 7.4% year-on-year - TUMI: $190 million, down 3.7% year-on-year, showing relative resilience with constant currency growth in Asia, Europe, and Latin America [3] - American Tourister: $130 million, down 14.0% year-on-year [3] Channel Performance Summary - Revenue by channel in Q1 2025: - Wholesale: $490 million, down 8.9% year-on-year - DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) retail: $220 million, down 5.5% year-on-year - DTC e-commerce: $80 million, down 2.5% year-on-year [3] - The company opened 9 new stores (19 opened, 10 closed) to reach a total of 1,128 stores, demonstrating confidence in development despite weak retail conditions [3] Profitability and Cost Structure - Q1 2025 gross margin was 59.4%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in the proportion of higher-margin Asia sales [4] - Adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, and net profit margin was 6.1%, down 3.6 percentage points, reflecting performance pressure from macroeconomic fluctuations [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $3.6 billion, $3.7 billion, and $3.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of $300 million, $350 million, and $400 million [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 9, 8, and 7 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to experience significant growth in 2024, despite a challenging external environment and high base effects from the previous year. The launch of new products, including the MagNeuro ONE series and shockwave therapy devices, is anticipated to enhance the company's competitive edge in the rehabilitation and aesthetic medicine sectors [2][4] - The company's revenue and profit showed a notable improvement in Q1 2025, indicating a positive trend that is likely to continue throughout the year, driven by the increasing sales of aesthetic products [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 400 million yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 13.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 101.97 million yuan, down 25.2%. The non-recurring net profit was 80 million yuan, reflecting a 31.7% decline [1][10] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 95.91 million yuan, marking a year-over-year increase of 9.4%, and a net profit of 33.22 million yuan, up 52.7%. The non-recurring net profit was 30.54 million yuan, representing a 59.0% increase [1][10] Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 was 65.5%, a decrease of 6.3 percentage points year-over-year, while the net profit margin was 25.5%, down 4.0 percentage points. The decline in gross margin is attributed to increased competition in the rehabilitation sector and the initial phase of new product launches [3] - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 120 million yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 11.9%, with the cash flow net amount accounting for 160.1% of net operating income, showing significant improvement [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in its core rehabilitation business and substantial contributions from new products in the aesthetic sector from 2025 to 2027. The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.37 yuan, 1.65 yuan, and 2.02 yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33.80 for 2025 [4][10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The introduction of the current housing sales system in Xinyang is seen as a signal that the local real estate market has reached a bottoming out phase [4] - The implementation of the current housing sales policy is expected to boost buyer confidence and aid in inventory digestion, despite the long inventory turnover period and declining new construction area [3][4] - The real estate market in Xinyang is characterized by a significant decline in new housing sales, with a peak in 2021 followed by an 80% drop by 2024 [2] Summary by Relevant Sections New Housing Sales - In 2021, new housing sales in Xinyang peaked at 1,097,000 square meters, but by 2024, the sales area had dropped to 218,000 square meters, reflecting an 80% decline from the peak [2] - The sales area of pre-sold housing in 2024 is estimated at approximately 130,000 square meters, down 82% from 2022 [2] Land Market - In 2022, the area of land purchased in Xinyang was 15,280 square meters, a 75.8% year-on-year decrease, leading to a low contribution of land revenue to government funds [2] - Only one residential land transaction occurred in the first four months of 2025, with a total area of 157,000 square meters, indicating a sluggish land market [2] New Construction - New construction area in Xinyang has been declining since 2022, with a 29.7% drop in 2022 and a projected 40.5% decrease in 2024 [2] - The estimated new construction area for 2024 is around 130,000 square meters, an 87% drop from 2021 [2] Inventory - The inventory of unsold housing in Xinyang was 2,967,000 square meters in 2021, decreasing by 8.6% in 2022 and by 12.2% in 2024 [2] - By the end of 2024, the unsold housing inventory is expected to be 2,089,000 square meters, with residential unsold inventory around 1,460,000 square meters and a turnover period of 20 months [2] Population - The resident population of Xinyang in 2024 is projected to be 6.05 million, a 1.9% decrease year-on-year, and a reduction of 430,000 compared to 2018, marking five consecutive years of population decline [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [8] Core Views - The company achieved steady growth in 2024, with revenue of 10.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, and a net profit of 1.04 billion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year, driven by a focus on distributed energy market expansion and customer demand [1][12] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.56 billion yuan, a 2.7% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 250 million yuan, up 5.6% year-on-year, attributed to cost reduction and market expansion efforts [1] - The company is positioned as a leader in axial flow compressors, benefiting from the commercialization and rapid development of compressed air energy storage [3] Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 22.5%, an increase of 1 percentage point year-on-year, while the net margin was 11.1%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][17] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin decreased to 20.5%, down 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, but the net margin increased to 10.9%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s operating expenses ratio for 2024 was 9.2%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with R&D expenses rising due to increased investment in the distributed energy market [2][17] Market Outlook - The industrial gas market in China is projected to grow from 212.9 billion yuan in 2023 to 284.2 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 10% [5] - The company’s subsidiary, Qin Feng Gas, achieved a market share of 1.6% in 2023, establishing itself as a leader in the domestic industrial gas sector [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit is expected to reach 1.13 billion yuan in 2025, 1.24 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.36 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 10%, and 10% respectively [6] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 13.2, 12.0, and 11.0 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [8] Core Views - The company is expected to recover its performance in 2025 driven by new products and overseas expansion [1][2] - Despite a decline in revenue and profit in Q1 2025 due to high base effects, there is optimism for growth throughout the year as demand recovers and channels expand [1][2] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company's revenue was 7.566 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.09%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.806 billion yuan, down 24.63% [1] - Q4 2024 showed a revenue of 1.538 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.51%, and a net profit of 274 million yuan, up 33.60% [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 2.436 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.17%, while net profit was 625 million yuan, down 5.26% [1] Product and Channel Growth - The blood glucose and AED new products are expected to drive high growth in revenue [3] - The blood glucose management segment saw a 40% year-on-year revenue increase in 2024, with CGM products experiencing over 100% growth [3] - The overseas revenue for 2024 was 949 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30%, indicating significant growth potential in international markets [4] Profitability Outlook - The gross margin for 2024 was 50.14%, a slight decrease of 1.35 percentage points year-on-year, but is expected to maintain a relatively high level in 2025 [5] - The net margin for 2024 was 23.85%, down 5.96 percentage points year-on-year, but is projected to remain high due to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [5] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 8.688 billion, 10.056 billion, and 11.543 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 14.83%, 15.75%, and 14.78% respectively [6] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 2.094 billion, 2.423 billion, and 2.798 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 15.95%, 15.75%, and 15.46% [6]