Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The raw milk price is fundamentally influenced by supply and demand, with supply factors including domestic production and import levels, while demand factors consider macroeconomic conditions, population structure, and substitutes [3] - The industry is undergoing a transition from "incremental" supply to "quality improvement," with enhanced production efficiency driven by breed quality, production performance, and scale [4] - Short-term demand is weak due to macroeconomic conditions and competition from substitutes, but there is significant growth potential in the medium to long term due to low per capita consumption and increasing health awareness among residents [4] Summary by Sections Supply Side Quality Improvement - The industry is experiencing a dual pressure of price and cost, leading to accelerated elimination of outdated production capacity [4] - The production efficiency of dairy cows is improving across various metrics, including breed quality and scale [4][14] Demand Side Potential - Recent years have seen weak dairy consumption, with a decline in both sales and imports of dairy products [56] - The overall sales of dairy products decreased by 11% year-on-year in 2024, and imports fell by 6% [60] - Factors contributing to weak demand include macroeconomic conditions, declining birth rates, and a mismatch between supply structure and consumer preferences [61][66] Historical Development of the Dairy Industry - The dairy industry in China has evolved through several phases, from initial development to a period of quality improvement and now to a revitalization and transformation phase [21] - The current distribution of milk sources is concentrated in northern regions, with significant production in provinces like Inner Mongolia and Hebei [22] Production Capacity and Trends - The number of dairy cows has decreased by 4.5% year-on-year in 2024, indicating a trend of capacity reduction [53] - The total milk production in China for 2024 is projected to be 40.79 million tons, a decrease of 2.8% compared to the previous year [53] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The per capita consumption of dairy products in China remains low compared to developed countries, with significant room for growth as health awareness increases [66][70] - Urban-rural consumption disparities persist, with urban residents consuming significantly more dairy than their rural counterparts [74]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is expected to see an upward turning point in operations and performance driven by innovation, particularly with the ongoing global clinical data readouts for SKB264, which may enhance valuation opportunities [1][5] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a significant decline in revenue and profit, primarily due to high base effects from the previous year and price fluctuations [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 21.812 billion yuan (YOY +1.67%) and a net profit of 2.936 billion yuan (YOY +19.53%) [1][13] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.390 billion yuan (YOY -29.42%) and a net profit of 0.584 billion yuan (YOY -43.07%) [1][13] Business Segmentation Summary - The infusion segment experienced a revenue decline to 8.912 billion yuan in 2024 (YOY -11.85%), while the sales volume was 4.347 billion bags/bottles (YOY -0.70%) [2] - Non-infusion pharmaceuticals saw a revenue increase to 4.169 billion yuan in 2024 (YOY +5.41%), driven by the sales of innovative drugs [3] - The intermediates and raw materials segment achieved revenue of 5.856 billion yuan in 2024 (YOY +20.90%), with significant contributions from various antibiotic intermediates [4] Innovation and Commercialization - The company has a robust pipeline with over 30 projects, focusing on oncology, and several innovative drugs have been approved for market entry [5] - The internationalization efforts are highlighted by the overseas licensing of SKB264, with a total development and sales milestone exceeding 1.2 billion USD [5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The projected EPS for 2025-2027 is 1.88, 2.11, and 2.54 yuan respectively, with a PE ratio of 19 times based on the closing price on May 15, 2025 [11][13] - The company is expected to benefit from its innovative drug technology platform and cost reduction strategies in the intermediates and raw materials segment [11]

Core Insights - From a technical analysis perspective, TS has dropped to the annual moving average (MA250) level, indicating potential support for current TS prices [9] - From a fundamental standpoint, the probability of continued tightening in monetary policy is low amid the US-China geopolitical context, suggesting significant downward elasticity for short-term interest rates and structural opportunities for bonds with maturities of up to 7 years [9][26] - The recent "double reduction" in monetary policy has led to a rapid decline in short-term interest rates, but short-term government bond yields have only decreased by 1-2 basis points, indicating room for further decline [26] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The banking system's low excess reserve ratio and the role of large banks in monetary policy transmission and market-making will lead to increased external influences on funding fluctuations, reducing predictability [12][16] - The supply of government bonds is expected to increase significantly in mid to late May, creating pressure on internal funding [12] - The "duration hugging" strategy has caused long-term bond yields to exhibit rapid fluctuations, with the market's sensitivity to various factors significantly reduced [27] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The current market environment favors a rotation between coupon income and capital gains, with short-term credit bonds showing potential for better performance [29] - Since March, there has been a notable decline in credit spreads for various credit ratings, indicating a shift in institutional buying behavior towards short-term credit bonds [29] - The expectation of a potential resumption of government bond purchases by the central bank in May to June could lead to a further decline in short-term bond yields [26][27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is expected to see a recovery in net profit margin in 2025, following a significant adjustment phase in its store operations [1][3] - The company achieved a revenue of 24.062 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.53%, and a net profit of 1.529 billion yuan, up 8.26% year-on-year [1][4] - The company has a robust store expansion strategy, with 2,512 new stores added in 2024, which is anticipated to drive long-term revenue growth [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 6.843 billion yuan, a 2.14% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 418 million yuan, up 1.28% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded revenue of 6.009 billion yuan, a 0.64% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 449 million yuan, up 10.51% year-on-year [1] Growth Potential - The company added 94 new stores in Q1 2025, with a net increase of 10 stores compared to the end of 2024, indicating a potential slowdown in store closures [2] - The company has a wide coverage of medical insurance qualifications, with 10,300 out of 10,872 direct chain stores qualified, which is expected to enhance its ability to capture market opportunities from prescription outflow [2] Profitability - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 40.12%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, with specific margins for traditional Chinese medicine and non-drug products also showing improvements [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 6.87%, a slight decrease, but it is projected to recover to 8.21% in Q1 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [3] Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 26.920 billion yuan, 30.834 billion yuan, and 34.079 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 11.88%, 14.54%, and 10.53% [4][10] - The expected net profit for the same period is 1.758 billion yuan, 2.092 billion yuan, and 2.333 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15.00%, 19.00%, and 11.53% respectively [4][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company demonstrated robust performance with a revenue of 43.03 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 791 million yuan, up 44% [1] - The company is focusing on professional development in outsourcing services, having added 30 large clients in 2024, with 14 being private enterprises [2] - The company is expected to benefit from close cooperation with leading technology firms, with optimistic trends in subsidies and strong performance certainty for 2025 [3] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from various services was as follows: outsourcing services 36.05 billion yuan (+14%), personnel management services 990 million yuan (-9%), compensation and benefits services 1.2 billion yuan (+5%), and recruitment and flexible employment 4.34 billion yuan (+13%) [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is expected to be 1.154 billion yuan, 983 million yuan, and 1.086 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.2X, 11.9X, and 10.8X [4] - Adjusted net profits excluding one-time gains from asset disposals are projected to be 870 million yuan, 980 million yuan, and 1.09 billion yuan for 2025-2027, indicating growth rates of 10.4%, 12.5%, and 10.5% respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a positive cycle driven by both domestic and overseas demand, with significant revenue growth and improved profitability expected in 2024 and Q1 2025 [3][4] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is expected to boost exports, with a notable increase in overseas market share and a recovery in the domestic cycle anticipated [4][5] Revenue Growth - In 2024, the total revenue of the five major engineering machinery manufacturers reached 259.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3% [6][11] - In Q1 2025, the total revenue reached 72.6 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 12% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11% [6][11] Profitability Improvement - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the five major manufacturers in 2024 was 17.9 billion, up 19% year-on-year [24] - In Q1 2025, the net profit reached 6.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 164% [24] Export Growth - In April 2025, export sales reached 9,595 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, with the "Belt and Road" region accounting for 64% of the total export value in Q1 2025, up 15% year-on-year [4][5] Domestic Market Recovery - Domestic sales in April 2025 reached 12,547 units, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, indicating a recovery in the domestic cycle [4][5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industry leaders such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Shantui, and others, while also paying attention to companies like Noli [5] Cash Flow and Financial Health - Operating cash flow for the five major manufacturers increased by 75% in 2024 and by 16% in Q1 2025, indicating improved operational quality [59][62] - The asset-liability ratio for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 57%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.7 percentage points and 1.1 percentage points, respectively [65]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company has demonstrated robust performance with a revenue of 43.03 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 791 million yuan, up 44% [1] - The company is focusing on the professional development of its outsourcing business, having added 30 large clients in 2024, with 14 being private enterprises [2] - The company is expected to benefit from close cooperation with leading technology firms, with optimistic trends in subsidies and strong performance certainty for the year [3] Revenue Overview - In 2024, the revenue breakdown by business segment shows outsourcing services at 36.05 billion yuan (up 14%), personnel management services at 990 million yuan (down 9%), compensation and benefits services at 1.2 billion yuan (up 5%), and recruitment and flexible employment at 4.34 billion yuan (up 13%) [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is expected to be 1.15 billion yuan, 983 million yuan, and 1.09 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 45.8%, -14.8%, and +10.5% [4] - The adjusted net profit excluding one-time gains from asset disposals is projected to be 870 million yuan, 980 million yuan, and 1.09 billion yuan for the same period, indicating a steady growth trajectory [4]

证券研究报告 工程机械：反转逻辑持续验证， 内外需共振盈利周期上行 ——工程机械行业2024年与2025Q1业绩综述 行业评级：看好（维持） 2025年5月16日 分析师 邱世梁 分析师 王华君 分析师 胡飘 邮箱 qiushiliang@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 wanghuajun@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 hupiao@stocke.com.cn 电话 18516256639 电话 18610723118 电话 13886125652 证书编号 S1230520050001 证书编号 S1230520080005 证书编号 S1230524040006 分析师 邱世梁 分析师 王华君 分析师 何家恺 研究助理 徐琛奇 邮箱 qiushiliang@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 wanghuajun@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 hejiakai@stocke.com.cn 研究助理 蒋逸 证书编号 S1230520050001 证书编号 S1230520080005 证书编号 S1230523080007 工程机械：反转逻辑持续验证中，海外与国内有望共振 1、回顾2024年&20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $3.6 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, primarily due to weakened demand in Asia and North America [1] - Adjusted EBITDA profit was $130 million, down 20.8% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was $48.2 million, down 41.9% year-on-year, indicating profit pressure under negative operating leverage [1] - The company anticipates revenues of $3.6 billion, $3.7 billion, and $3.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of $300 million, $347.8 million, and $397.2 million, reflecting a temporary performance pressure due to tariff policies and macroeconomic fluctuations [5] Regional Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue from Asia was $310 million, down 9.7% year-on-year, while North America generated $260 million, down 8.3% year-on-year. Europe, however, showed resilience with revenue of $180 million, flat year-on-year, and a 4.4% increase in fixed exchange rates [2] - The Indian market benefited from strategic adjustments, showing a fixed exchange rate revenue increase of 2.6%, while South Korea and China faced declines due to overall demand weakness [2] Brand Performance - Revenue by brand in Q1 2025 was $410 million for Samsonite, $190 million for TUMI, and $130 million for American Tourister, with TUMI showing relative resilience with a year-on-year decline of only 3.7% [3] - The company opened 9 new stores, bringing the total to 1,128, demonstrating confidence in growth despite a weakening retail environment [3] Profitability and Cost Structure - Gross margin for Q1 2025 was 59.4%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a lower proportion of high-margin sales from Asia [4] - The adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability due to rising expense ratios [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a P/E ratio of 9, 8, and 7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting the company's valuation amidst current market conditions [5] - The anticipated net profit for 2025 is $300 million, representing a 13.1% decline from the previous year, but expected to recover with a 15.8% increase in 2026 [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $3.6 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, and a decrease of 4.5% on a constant currency basis, primarily due to weakened demand in Asia and North America [1] - The adjusted EBITDA profit was $130 million, down 20.8% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was $48.2 million, down 41.9% year-on-year, indicating profit pressure under negative operating leverage [1] - Despite the short-term performance pressure due to tariff policies and macroeconomic fluctuations, the company maintains confidence in its three premium brand assets and anticipates a successful listing in the US to enhance liquidity [5] Regional Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, revenue by region showed: - Asia: $310 million, down 9.7% year-on-year, with India showing a constant currency growth of 2.6% due to strategic adjustments, while South Korea and China experienced declines [2] - North America: $260 million, down 8.3% year-on-year, with a 5.2% decline after excluding the impact of wholesalers' early purchases in Q4 2024 [2] - Europe: $180 million, flat year-on-year, with a 4.4% increase on a constant currency basis, driven by increasing brand penetration [2] - Latin America: $50 million, down 10.3% year-on-year, flat on a constant currency basis [2] Brand Performance Summary - Revenue by brand in Q1 2025: - Samsonite: $410 million, down 7.4% year-on-year - TUMI: $190 million, down 3.7% year-on-year, showing relative resilience with constant currency growth in Asia, Europe, and Latin America [3] - American Tourister: $130 million, down 14.0% year-on-year [3] Channel Performance Summary - Revenue by channel in Q1 2025: - Wholesale: $490 million, down 8.9% year-on-year - DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) retail: $220 million, down 5.5% year-on-year - DTC e-commerce: $80 million, down 2.5% year-on-year [3] - The company opened 9 new stores (19 opened, 10 closed) to reach a total of 1,128 stores, demonstrating confidence in development despite weak retail conditions [3] Profitability and Cost Structure - Q1 2025 gross margin was 59.4%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in the proportion of higher-margin Asia sales [4] - Adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, and net profit margin was 6.1%, down 3.6 percentage points, reflecting performance pressure from macroeconomic fluctuations [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $3.6 billion, $3.7 billion, and $3.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of $300 million, $350 million, and $400 million [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 9, 8, and 7 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]