证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 03 日 交易性择时每日一图版本更新说明 ——债市专题报告 核心观点 本报告在原有交易性择时体系基础上进行多资产扩展。自 9 月以来，交易性择时策略 在趋势阶段对利率下行行情形成了较高覆盖度，在回调与震荡时期则主动收敛暴露， 体现出右侧确认与趋势跟随框架下的稳健性。本次迭代进一步引入权益、黄金与商品 择时信号，实现多市场间的交叉验证，有望提升利率交易方向识别的有效性、降低择 时失真与回撤水平，并在复杂宏观环境下增强策略执行与风险管理能力。未来策略优 化将增强空头过滤功能，并加强复合信号在震荡阶段的稳定性。 ❑ 9 月以来交易性择时信号回顾 交易性择时模型在利率下行周期保持了对趋势行情的高敏感度，各类信号在关键 阶段呈现出较强一致性，并在多个交易窗口连续触发复合信号，在捕捉利率主升 段方面表现突出。近期随着利率企稳回调，模型信号明显收敛甚至短暂消失。该 现象并非策略失效，而是由于策略本身逻辑并不承担主动做空判断，而是基于右 侧确认选择降低暴露度，以避免震荡期的无效交易和频繁换手，更好地体现了策 略在复杂行情中的 ...

Market Overview - On December 2, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.42%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.48%, the STAR 50 dropped by 1.24%, the CSI 1000 declined by 1%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.69%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.24% [4] - The best-performing industries on December 2 were Oil & Petrochemicals (+0.71%), Light Industry Manufacturing (+0.55%), Home Appliances (+0.43%), Building Materials (+0.32%), and Communications (+0.27%). The worst-performing industries were Media (-1.75%), Nonferrous Metals (-1.36%), Computers (-1.34%), Pharmaceuticals & Biology (-1.23%), and Electric Equipment (-1.18%) [4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on December 2 was 1,607.3 billion yuan, with net inflow of southbound funds amounting to 4.101 billion HKD [4] Important Recommendations Silver Wheel Co., Ltd. (002126) - The company is a leader in automotive thermal management, expanding into AI liquid cooling and robotics, which presents new growth opportunities. The company is expected to benefit from increased penetration of new energy vehicles and recovery in commercial vehicles [5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 15,210.97 million yuan, 17,951.52 million yuan, and 20,977.59 million yuan, with growth rates of 19.75%, 18.02%, and 16.86% respectively. Net profit forecasts are 973.05 million yuan, 1,254.89 million yuan, and 1,577.07 million yuan, with growth rates of 24.19%, 28.97%, and 25.67% respectively [5] Hangyang Co., Ltd. (002430) - The company is a leading player in the industrial gas sector in China, positioned for both cyclical and growth opportunities. The gas industry is at a cyclical low, with potential for upward performance in the future [6] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 15,053 million yuan, 17,137 million yuan, and 19,561 million yuan, with growth rates of 10%, 14%, and 14% respectively. Net profit forecasts are 1,067 million yuan, 1,298 million yuan, and 1,513 million yuan, with growth rates of 16%, 22%, and 17% respectively [8] Key Insights Energy Metals Industry - The lithium industry is expected to enter a supply-demand tight state after 2026, with lithium prices likely to rise significantly, potentially exceeding 100,000 yuan. Investment opportunities in the lithium sector are recommended [9] Green Computing - The report emphasizes the importance of green computing from three dimensions: hardware efficiency, energy efficiency, and application synergy. Short-term focus should be on liquid cooling technology and high-density servers, while long-term attention should be on integrated systems and collaborative platforms [10][11] - The demand for AI model training is driving the need for green transformation, with significant cost pressures on data center operations due to high electricity costs [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company's gaming business is expected to grow robustly driven by a new product cycle, while the video account advertising business remains highly prosperous, likely becoming a major source of revenue growth [1][2] - In Q3 2025, Tencent's online gaming revenue (excluding social) reached 636 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%. Domestic market revenue was 428 billion yuan, up 15%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 423 billion yuan, primarily due to the contribution from "Delta Operation" and continued revenue growth from existing games [1] - International market revenue was 208 billion yuan, a 43% year-on-year increase, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 181 billion yuan, driven by record highs in daily active users and revenue for "Clash Royale" and growth from "PUBG: MOBILE" [1] - The introduction of a 15% commission agreement between Apple and Tencent regarding WeChat mini-game payments is expected to open up payment opportunities in the long term, despite short-term challenges in commission avoidance methods [3] - The company's marketing services revenue in Q3 2025 was 362 billion yuan, a 20.8% year-on-year increase, driven by improvements in eCPM and expansion of advertising inventory [4] Financial Forecasts - Projected revenues for Tencent from 2025 to 2027 are 748.76 billion yuan, 835.25 billion yuan, and 921.90 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 13%, 12%, and 10% respectively [5] - Adjusted net profits for the same period are forecasted to be 266.16 billion yuan, 293.21 billion yuan, and 321.51 billion yuan, with growth rates of 20%, 10%, and 10% respectively [5] - The valuation method applied suggests a target price of 794.73 HKD per share for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 30% [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the Chinese industrial gas sector, characterized by both "cyclical and growth" attributes, with a potential upward inflection in performance as the gas industry is at the bottom of the cycle. The acceleration into controllable nuclear fusion opens a second growth curve [1] - The market perceives uncertainty in the company's performance growth due to macroeconomic pressures, but the report anticipates a recovery in gas prices by 2025, with significant potential for performance elasticity if the macro economy rebounds [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from stable growth in pipeline gas, which is less affected by macroeconomic fluctuations, and has a solid foundation for future growth with a projected cumulative signing volume of 3.5 million Nm³/h in 2024, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year [2] - Retail gas is viewed as an offensive attribute, with current gas prices at historical lows, and potential for significant performance elasticity if the economy recovers. The company is also developing new growth points in electronic specialty gases [3] - The controllable nuclear fusion equipment market presents a large future market space, with the company already winning bids for low-temperature nitrogen systems, showcasing its technical strength [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Pipeline Gas - The company's pipeline gas segment is characterized by its defensive nature, showing stable growth with minimal impact from macroeconomic fluctuations. The projected signing volume for 2024 is 3.5 million Nm³/h, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year increase, ensuring steady growth in pipeline gas volume [2] Retail Gas - The retail gas segment is seen as an aggressive growth area, with current gas prices at 469 RMB/ton, a 1.5% year-on-year increase, but down 76% from the peak in 2021. If the macro economy recovers, retail gas could provide substantial performance elasticity [3] Controllable Nuclear Fusion Equipment - The controllable nuclear fusion equipment sector is expected to open a second growth avenue for the company, with significant market potential. The company has already secured contracts for low-temperature nitrogen systems, indicating strong technical capabilities [3][17] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.067 billion RMB, 1.298 billion RMB, and 1.513 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 22%, and 17% [10][12]

Production - November industrial production is expected to improve, with the industrial added value growth rate projected at 5.3% year-on-year[15] - The recovery in industrial production is supported by policies focusing on equipment manufacturing and new growth drivers, while external demand recovers faster than internal demand[15] - Service sector activity is expected to slow down due to the fading holiday effect, with the business activity index dropping to 49.5[17] Consumption - The year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales in November is projected to be 2.7%, a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value of 2.9%[18] - The weakening of the "old-for-new" policy and reduced fiscal support are expected to pressure consumption, particularly in categories like home appliances and automobiles[18] - Anticipated declines in automobile sales are expected to further impact consumer spending, with a projected year-on-year drop of 8.7% in the narrow passenger car retail market[19] Investment - Fixed asset investment from January to November is expected to decline by 2.3% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment growing by 1.7% and real estate investment dropping by 15.3%[20] - The construction sector remains under pressure, with the narrow infrastructure investment expected to decline by 0.8% year-on-year[38] - The issuance of new local government special bonds has reached 4.46 trillion yuan, exceeding the initial target for the year[38] Financial Data - New RMB loans in November are expected to be 300 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.4%[9] - The total social financing in November is projected to be 2.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 342 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.4%[9] - M2 growth is expected to decline to 8.0% from the previous 8.2%, while M1 growth is projected to drop to 5.3% from 6.2%[9]

Market Overview - On December 1, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.65%, the CSI 300 increased by 1.1%, the STAR 50 gained 0.72%, the CSI 1000 was up by 0.72%, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 1.31%. The Hang Seng Index also saw an increase of 0.67% [3]. Coal Industry Insights - The core viewpoint for the coal industry is that the price center is expected to rise, prioritizing value. The forecast for 2026 indicates stable domestic economic conditions with anticipated demand growth, while supply will balance between production limits and supply guarantees. The average price for thermal coal is projected to be between 800-850 RMB/ton, and for coking coal, it is expected to be between 1500-1700 RMB/ton [4]. - Key driving factors include growth in coal demand, weather changes, and fluctuations in coal inventory [4]. Textile and Apparel Industry Insights - The textile and apparel sector is optimistic about the recovery of the export chain and stable growth in domestic demand. The market lacks significant upward catalysts, but there is a strong belief in the recovery of export demand due to low inventory levels and stable overseas demand. Additionally, there are growth opportunities in niche domestic markets such as running, outdoor activities, and home textiles [5]. - The analysis includes a review of the textile industry's performance over the past three years and insights into the inventory situation of leading companies in the export chain [5]. Media and Entertainment Sector Insights - The film "Zootopia 2" has exceeded expectations with a cumulative box office of over 1.94 billion RMB within five days of its release as of December 1, 2025. This performance is seen as beneficial for film distribution, cinema chains, IP derivatives, and co-branded products [6]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in key distributors such as China Film and Huaxia Film, as well as cinema investment firms like Wanda Film and Hengdian Film. Additionally, IP derivative companies like Pop Mart and Miniso are noted as potential investment targets [7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the green computing industry Core Insights - The green computing industry is analyzed from three dimensions: computing side (hardware and software), energy side, and application side, with a focus on liquid cooling technology, efficient algorithms, high-density servers, and long-term attention on integrated systems and green electricity [1][2][12] - The transition from energy efficiency optimization to a collaborative system of "computing power, electricity, and carbon power" is highlighted as a core trend in the intersection of technology and energy [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Research Framework - The demand for computing power is rapidly increasing due to global digitalization and intelligent transformation, with AI data center IT energy consumption projected to grow significantly from 55.1 TWh in 2024 to 146.2 TWh by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 44.8% [11][12] 2. Computing Side: Role of Algorithms, Devices, and Carriers - Green algorithms are essential for optimizing AI computing efficiency, focusing on reducing computational and storage costs while maintaining performance [2][30] - Data center hardware is identified as a major source of energy consumption, with significant advancements in chip architecture and high-density integration driving energy efficiency [2][12] - Efficient cooling technologies, such as liquid cooling, can significantly reduce Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) to below 1.3, with AI-driven management systems enhancing operational efficiency [2][12] 3. Energy Side: The End of Computing Lies in Electricity - The report emphasizes the need for energy structure transformation, with approximately 70% of China's data center energy coming from coal [2][12] - Innovations in energy management, such as integrated microgrids and direct connections to green electricity, are crucial for optimizing energy allocation [2][12] 4. Application Side: AI+ Achieving Green Empowerment Across Industries - AI computing is driving decarbonization across various sectors, with significant reductions in carbon emissions projected for energy (12%-22%), industry (13%-22%), transportation (10%-33%), and buildings (23%-40%) [2][3] - The development of edge computing and large models is expected to transform consumption patterns and production methods, leading to a comprehensive green and intelligent transition in the economy [3][12] 5. Summary and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key areas such as liquid cooling technology, efficient algorithms, and integrated energy systems as potential investment opportunities in the green computing sector [2][12]

Core Insights - The lithium industry has experienced significant oversupply since 2023, with supply growth outpacing demand growth, leading to a decline in lithium prices from a peak of 590,000 to 60,000, resulting in some high-cost projects in Australia being shut down and major companies incurring losses [4] - Starting in 2025, energy storage demand is expected to exceed expectations, becoming the second growth curve for lithium demand, with projected demand for lithium carbonate reaching 345,000 tons in 2025 and potentially exceeding 500,000 tons next year, a tenfold increase compared to 50,000 tons in 2021 [4] - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a watershed year for supply-demand reversal in the industry, with new applications in electric heavy trucks and ships, as well as technological advancements, likely to drive growth in power battery shipments [4] - The nickel industry has seen a continuous increase in supply due to investments by several Chinese companies in Indonesia, with supply expected to reach 2.2 million tons in 2024, accounting for 59% of global supply, while demand remains primarily driven by stainless steel [4] - The cobalt industry is experiencing a tightening supply due to the Democratic Republic of Congo's quota system, which has effectively raised cobalt prices [4] Lithium Industry - The lithium industry is currently in a state of supply-demand balance, with inventory levels decreasing [12] - The production of lithium iron phosphate batteries has seen significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 65% in output [21] - The demand for lithium is projected to reach 195,000 tons in 2026, with supply at approximately 197,700 tons, indicating a narrowing surplus [37] - Major companies to watch include Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and Yahua Group, which are expected to see rapid growth in their own mining operations [47] Nickel Industry - Nickel prices have been fluctuating since 2025, with LME and domestic inventories at high levels, indicating a supply surplus [50][56] - The overall supply of refined nickel in China is expected to be in surplus in 2025, with a projected supply of 379,000 tons against a demand of 361,000 tons [59] - Companies with a competitive edge in Indonesia, such as Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources, are recommended for investment [67] Cobalt Industry - Cobalt prices have been gradually increasing since the Democratic Republic of Congo's ban on mining exports, with the price of electrolytic cobalt reaching 405,000 yuan per ton [75] - Domestic cobalt salt production has increased, while imports of cobalt intermediate products have declined [78] - Investment opportunities in the cobalt sector include companies like Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum [72]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, emphasizing a preference for value investments as the price center is expected to rise in 2026 [1]. Group 1: 2025 Review - Coal production in China showed a trend of high output in the first half of 2025, followed by a decline, with a total of 397.3 million tons produced from January to October, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [2][16]. - Coal imports decreased significantly, with a total of 38.8 million tons imported from January to October, representing an 11% year-on-year decline [2][24]. - The overall coal consumption remained resilient, with a total of approximately 4.24 billion tons consumed from January to October, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% [3][44]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The coal price experienced a V-shaped recovery, with prices for thermal coal, coking coal, and anthracite rebounding to 816, 1670, and 930 CNY per ton respectively by November 28, 2025 [4]. - The report highlights that the supply-demand balance is maintained through policies that regulate production while ensuring supply stability [5]. Group 3: 2026 Outlook - The report forecasts coal consumption to reach 4.95 billion tons in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 1%, driven primarily by demand from the power and chemical sectors [5]. - It is anticipated that coal production will slightly increase to 4.87 billion tons in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.6% [5]. - The investment strategy suggests focusing on high-dividend coal companies and those showing signs of recovery from financial distress, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - "Zootopia 2" has exceeded box office expectations, with a total box office forecast of 42.5 billion, driven by strong performance during a weak release period [2] - The film's high screen share of 76.8% and a weekend box office of 7.3 billion indicate strong audience interest, surpassing the first installment of "Zootopia" [2] - The overall film market in 2025 shows a recovery trend, with significant contributions from key holiday periods, particularly the Spring Festival and summer seasons [4][11] Summary by Sections - **Box Office Performance**: As of December 1, 2025, "Zootopia 2" has grossed over 19.4 billion in its first five days, with projections indicating a total of 42.5 billion. The film's performance is compared favorably to previous hits like "Nezha" [2] - **Market Trends**: The film industry has seen a 16.20% year-on-year increase in total box office revenue from January to October 2025, with the Spring Festival box office reaching a record high of 95.14 billion, up 18.69% [4] - **Future Outlook**: The 2026 film market is expected to continue its recovery, with box office predictions ranging from 481 to 580 billion, driven by a strong lineup of films for the New Year and Spring Festival [11][12]