Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The capacity replacement policy is a core tool for supply-side structural reform, aiming to "control total volume and optimize stock" through "reduction replacement" or "equal replacement" principles, ensuring that new advanced capacity is built while eliminating outdated capacity [3][8] - During the supply-side structural reform period (2016-2020), coal production exceeded demand, leading to tighter capacity allocation policies and the implementation of reduction replacement policies [3][21] - In the production increase and supply guarantee period (2021-2025), the policy continues to adhere to reduction replacement principles while implementing a commitment system for capacity indicators [3][23] - The capacity replacement commitment system is crucial for optimizing coal capacity management and ensuring national energy security [3][30] - The coal industry's supply and demand are expected to gradually balance, with coal prices steadily rising under the current policy framework [3][40] Summary by Sections Capacity Replacement Policy - The capacity replacement policy is essential for addressing overcapacity in industries like coal, steel, and cement, focusing on controlling new capacity while phasing out outdated capacity [8][10] - Specific policies were introduced from 2016 to 2018, mandating "reduction replacement" for the coal industry [15][16] Supply-Side Structural Reform Period (2016-2020) - The coal industry faced a situation of oversupply, prompting the implementation of tighter capacity allocation policies and reduction replacement measures [21][24] - Policies during this period included incentives for exiting coal mines to reduce capacity indicators [24][25] Production Increase and Supply Guarantee Period (2021-2025) - The commitment system allows coal mines to promise capacity increases without immediate compliance with replacement indicators, aiming to expedite the release of quality capacity [30][31] - The policy encourages the establishment of a coal capacity reserve system to enhance supply flexibility and resilience [39] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others in the thermal coal sector, as well as companies in the coking coal sector like Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [3][40]

Market Overview - On September 16, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.04%, while the CSI 300 fell by 0.21%. The STAR Market 50 increased by 1.32%, the CSI 1000 rose by 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index went up by 0.68%. The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.03% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on September 16 were comprehensive (+3.63%), machinery and equipment (+2.06%), computer (+2.06%), retail (+1.96%), and automotive (+1.82%). The worst-performing sectors included agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.29%), banking (-1.15%), non-ferrous metals (-0.99%), defense and military industry (-0.5%), and food and beverage (-0.38%) [3][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on September 16 was 23,670.69 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 3.188 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Key Insights Consumption Strategy - In the medium to long term, the first "systematic 'slow' bull" is expected to release a wealth effect, potentially slowly boosting consumption. Insurance funds and foreign capital entering the market are favorable for consumer blue chips, with positive signals from central Huijin increasing holdings in liquor ETFs. A top-down perspective suggests that the broad consumption sector is likely to benefit [5] - The market perceives that the wealth effect of the bull market is not significant. However, it is believed that the bull market can indirectly drive the wealth effect through a specific transmission path: A-share bull market → stabilization of second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities → stabilization of second-hand housing prices in other cities → recovery of real estate wealth effect. Investment opportunities in the consumption sector are worth noting, particularly in blue-chip leaders and emerging growth areas [5] - The driving factors include support from policies, funds, and sentiment, indicating that the first "systematic 'slow' bull" has quietly arrived, which may enhance the Sharpe ratio of the A-share market and indirectly boost consumption [5] Bond Market Insights - The current bond market adjustment differs significantly from historical bear markets, as the fundamentals, monetary policy, and curve shapes do not resemble past bear markets. Instead, it is more akin to an emotional adjustment under continuous risk preference shocks, anti-involution, and fund fee reduction [7][8] - There is a need to gradually break the mindset of a one-sided decline in yields and adapt to a fluctuating market pattern. However, based on the economic fundamentals and the core tone of moderate policy easing, a major bull-bear reversal has not yet been established [7][8] - The three core signals for a bull-to-bear transition include: 1. Policy bottom: Signs of marginal tightening in macro policies or expressions of tightening monetary policy 2. Fundamental bottom: Consistent and positive surprises in high-frequency and economic data 3. Sentiment bottom: A fragile and crowded trading structure triggered by the above two signals, leading to self-reinforcing sell-offs and deleveraging [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.659 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.203 billion yuan, up 7.4% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to see revenue and profit growth in the second half of 2025 due to demand recovery and channel expansion [1] - The overseas revenue for H1 2025 reached 607 million yuan, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 26.6% [1] Summary by Sections Growth Potential - The company anticipates continued high growth in new products such as blood glucose monitors and AEDs. In H1 2025, revenue from the blood glucose and POCT segment grew by 20%, while the AED segment saw a 31% increase [2] - The overseas channel is expanding rapidly, with H1 2025 overseas revenue growing by 26.6%, indicating significant growth potential in international markets [3] - The company is developing an integrated health management ecosystem leveraging AI, big data, and IoT technologies, which is expected to enhance user engagement and generate additional revenue [3] Profitability - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 50.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, with expectations to maintain a high gross margin due to ongoing new product launches [4] - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 25.8%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, but the company is expected to maintain a high net profit margin due to government subsidies and cost efficiency measures [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts total revenue of 8.399 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.02%, and a net profit of 2.001 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.81% [5] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 2.00 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19 times [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The definition of a bond bear market is a 40BP adjustment in the 10-year Treasury bond and an adjustment time of more than 3 months. Historically, bond bear markets were caused by fundamental improvement, monetary policy tightening, liquidity tightening leading to a bear-flattening curve, and persistent pessimism in sentiment leading to further adjustments. This round's verification differs significantly from history; it is more like an emotional adjustment under continuous risk preference shocks, anti-involution, and fund fee reduction [1]. - The bond market has experienced a 7-year bull market, with yields dropping from a high of 4.0% in early 2018 to a low of 1.6% in early 2025, a cumulative compression of 240bp. The current situation makes people wonder whether to buy on every dip or enter the bull-bear conversion thinking [2]. - The consensus resistance level for the 10Y Treasury bond this year is 1.80% (OMO + 40BP). If it cannot hold, the new market resistance level is approximately last year's central level, corresponding to 1.85% - 1.90% [3]. - Through historical review, the three core signal inflection points for a bull-to-bear transition are the policy bottom, the fundamental bottom, and the sentiment bottom [6]. - After cross-verifying the policy, fundamental, and sentiment aspects, it is believed that the inflection point for the bond market's bull-bear switch has not appeared, and the market still follows the buy-on-dip logic [48]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Worries about Bull-Bear Conversion in the Market Background - The bond market has had a 7-year bull market, with yields dropping from 4.0% in early 2018 to 1.6% in early 2025, a 240bp compression. Although there was an 80bp adjustment in 2020, the long-term bull market foundation remained intact. The extreme market in 2024 shaped a strong consensus. The long bull market, strong one-sided expectations, low current levels, and large recent fluctuations have led to concerns about bull-bear conversion [2][15]. - A bond bear market is defined as a single adjustment of more than 40bp and a decline lasting over 3 months. The current market adjustment started on July 7th, lasting 2 months with a maximum amplitude of 19bp, not yet a bond bear market, but there are concerns about the continuation of this trend [15]. - In the past decade, the bond market has experienced eight significant adjustments. The adjustments in October 2016 and May 2020 had an upward amplitude of over 80bp and lasted more than 6 months, which are used as research samples for bond bear markets [16]. - The 10-year Treasury bond and OMO spread reached a new high this year. The consensus resistance level for the 10Y Treasury bond this year is 1.80% (OMO + 40BP). If it cannot hold, the new resistance level is around last year's central level, 1.85% - 1.90% (OMO + 45 - 50BP). The current 30-year and 10-year Treasury bond spread is 30bp, significantly wider than last year's average of 20.75bp [3][19]. 3.2 Historical Review: Where Were the Inflection Points of the Past Two Bull-Bear Cycles? - **2016 - 2017: The Long Bear Market under Financial Deleveraging** - The bear market was catalyzed by factors such as economic fundamental recovery, monetary policy tightening, financial deleveraging, and strengthened policy supervision. The supply-side structural reform led to a commodity bull market, PPI turning positive and rising sharply, inflation expectations, and then monetary policy tightening and "financial deleveraging" [23]. - Three signals indicated the start of a new economic cycle: PMI returning to the boom-bust line, soaring commodity prices, and PPI turning positive for the first time. Policy-wise, "financial deleveraging" dominated the regulatory tone, triggering the end of the bond bull market. The central bank raised policy rates multiple times, MPA assessment became stricter, and the interbank liquidity was under pressure, leading to a bear-flattening and then a bear-steepening curve [23][24]. - **2020: The "V-shaped" Reversal after the Pandemic Recovery** - The bear market was catalyzed by post-pandemic economic recovery, marginal tightening of monetary policy, and a shift in risk preference. The "V-shaped" economic recovery brought a "V-shaped" interest rate adjustment, with PMI achieving a V-shaped reversal and PPI rebounding from the bottom [30]. - The core of this adjustment was the policy expectation gap. The market was immersed in the central bank's loose narrative, but the policy had already shifted based on economic recovery, leading to a significant correction in expectations. The central bank began to recover excess liquidity in May, and the stock market recovered, causing funds to flow from the bond market to the stock market, accelerating the rise in interest rates [31]. - **Three Core Signal Inflection Points for Bull-to-Bear Transition** - Policy bottom: Signs or statements of marginal tightening in macro policies, including tightening of monetary policy (central bank's open market operations reducing liquidity, tightening of the money market) and stricter regulatory policies (such as MPA assessment and financial deleveraging). This is a left-side signal that requires keen insight [6]. - Fundamental bottom: High-frequency and economic data continuously and consistently exceed expectations (especially PPI, PMI, M1, and social financing credit). Economic indicators lead, with PMI usually bottoming out and rebounding 2 - 3 months before the inflection point and PPI turning positive or rebounding from the bottom about 1 month before the inflection point. These are confirmation signals for a trend reversal to a bear market [6]. - Sentiment bottom: A fragile and crowded trading structure is triggered by the above two signals, leading to self-reinforcing selling and deleveraging in the market, sensitive market sentiment, and the fastest rise in yields [6]. 3.3 Current Verification: Does the Market Currently Have the Conditions to Turn Bearish? - **Policy Aspect**: Monetary policy remains within the framework of "precise and effective" and "moderately loose." There has been no significant shift to tightening. The possibility of policy tightening this year is low due to the weak economic recovery momentum [42]. - **Fundamental Aspect**: Given the pressure on income and employment expectations, the deep bottoming of the real estate market, the tightening of generalized urban investment finance, and the weak bank credit supply, the probability of a significant and unexpected economic boost in the short term is still low. PPI, PMI, and credit indicators show that the economic endogenous动力 needs further strengthening [43]. - **Sentiment Aspect**: The duration risk remains at a historically high level, but the leverage level is generally controllable and at a historical low. The trading congestion has significantly cooled down from the recent overheated state, but market sentiment remains sensitive due to continuous risk preference disturbances [44]. - Overall, the bond market still lacks the macroeconomic and policy basis for a significant reversal to a bear market. The current situation is more of an interval shock caused by asset linkage, high bond market congestion, and the digestion of previous over - rises, rather than a trend decline. The inflection point for the bond market's bull - bear switch has not appeared, and the market still follows the buy - on - dip logic [48].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with revenue of 1.833 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 326 million yuan, up 29.94% year-on-year [1][2] - The company is experiencing growth across multiple segments, with significant contributions from emerging businesses and a strong focus on product innovation [2][3][4] - The company maintains high research and development investment, with R&D expenses of 267 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.13% [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 58.13%, with a net profit margin of 18.71%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.21 percentage points [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 1.044 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.42%, and a net profit of 184 million yuan, up 23.99% year-on-year [1] Business Segments - The Resources and Public Utilities segment generated revenue of 702 million yuan, up 3.09% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 61.69% [2] - The Construction and Infrastructure segment reported revenue of 659 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.67%, with a gross margin of 61.07% [2] - The Geospatial Information segment experienced significant growth, with revenue of 359 million yuan, up 87.61% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 50.57% [2] - The Robotics and Autonomous Driving segment generated revenue of 114 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.8%, with a gross margin of 43.08% [2] Research and Development - The company emphasizes R&D, focusing on high-precision positioning technology, and has established multiple R&D bases domestically and internationally [5] - The company has developed core algorithm capabilities in high-precision GNSS, 3D point cloud, and autonomous driving perception [5] International Expansion - The company's overseas business revenue reached 602 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35%, accounting for 32.82% of total revenue [11] - The overseas business has a gross margin of 71%, significantly higher than the company's average [11] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 733 million yuan, 942 million yuan, and 1.223 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The current macro - economic supply - demand imbalance persists, and the transmission of anti - involution policy effects is asymmetric. - Fundamental trading has two sides, usually more focused on long - term logic, and attention should be paid to the expectation gap. Although the current fundamentals are not the core contradiction of stock - bond trading, their anchoring effect on the bond market cannot be ignored. There is still a certain investment cost - effectiveness for 10 - year treasury bonds with a yield above 1.80% [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs How to View the Current Economic Fundamentals - In recent years, the problem of supply exceeding demand in the domestic economy has been prominent. External demand led by exports in the first half of the year was an important factor driving economic growth. In the second half of the year, the demand side declined overall, and the growth rate of the production side also showed signs of decline. The asymmetry of policy effects may be the main cause of short - term economic fluctuations. - On one hand, anti - involution has a direct impact on the production side, similar to capacity reduction through administrative means during the supply - side reform, which may be the main reason for the decline in the growth rate of fixed - asset investment in July and August, and industrial production may also be affected. On the other hand, against the background of relatively weak demand, the effect of anti - involution on boosting prices still needs further transmission. The short - term PPI growth rate may bottom out, but the CPI growth rate unexpectedly declined in August [2]. How to Understand Fundamental Trading - Fundamental trading has two sides, and the same data may have completely opposite interpretations. For example, after the release of economic data on March 17 and April 16, 2025, although the economic data was better than expected, the TL contract showed different intraday trends, which makes it difficult to grasp the market's mainstream expectations for fundamental data and its impact [3]. - Fundamental trading is more of a long - term rather than a short - term logic, and its role is more to support rather than drive. Economic fundamental variables are mostly slow - changing variables with relatively low update frequencies. Investors usually need to form fundamental expectations based on multi - month data, which determines that fundamental trading is more long - term. The impact of fundamentals on bond prices is more of a support, and the relationship between positive economic data for the bond market and bond market rallies is "necessary but not sufficient" [3]. - The long - term logical nature of fundamental trading determines that the expectation gap may be the main factor affecting fundamental trading. Data that conforms to the long - term market fundamental expectations may cause a relatively flat market reaction, while data that deviates from the long - term expectations may catalyze short - term trading in the market [3]. Understanding Stock - Bond Market Trends from the Perspective of Fundamental Trading - Apparently, fundamentals are not the core contradiction of current stock - bond trading. Factors such as investors' risk appetite, market liquidity, incremental funds, and potential policies have a greater impact on the equity market. The relatively fragile sentiment in the bond market is the main reason for the recent more - decline - less - rise situation in the bond market. The commodity market pays more attention to the introduction and implementation of anti - involution policies [4]. - Deeply, the anchoring effect of fundamentals cannot be ignored, especially for the bond market. Relatively weak fundamental data can frame the approximate upward range of treasury bond yields. 10 - year treasury bonds with a yield above 1.80% still have a certain investment cost - effectiveness. - The impact of current fundamentals on the bond market is asymmetric. Relatively weak fundamental data in line with expectations may not effectively boost bond market sentiment and catalyze a bond market rally, while unexpectedly strong data may hit the already fragile bond market sentiment. Attention should be paid to demand - side data such as consumption and price indices such as CPI [4].

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 16 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 09 月 16 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 大势：9 月 15 日上证指数下跌 0.26%，沪深 300 上涨 0.24%，科创 50 上涨 0.18%，中证 1000 下跌 0.1%，创业板 指上涨 1.51%，恒生指数上涨 0.22%。 行业：9 月 15 日表现最好的行业分别是电力设备（+2.22%)、传媒（+1.94%)、农林牧渔（+1.79%)、汽车（+1.44%)、 煤炭（+1.32%)，表现最差的行业分别是综合（-1.8%)、通信（-1.52%)、国防军工（-1.05%)、银行（-0.9%)、有色 金属（-0.81%)。 资金：9 月 15 日全 A 总成交额为 23032 亿元，南下资金净流入 144.73 亿港元。 市场总览 重要观点 【浙商食饮 杨骥/杜宛泽/孙天一/张家祯】食品饮料 季度行业策略报告：紧握新消费趋势，重视龙头个股—— 20250914 http://www.stocke.co ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [3] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the agricultural sector is experiencing a recovery, with specific segments such as the pig and beef industries showing signs of improvement. Cost reduction and efficiency enhancement are key drivers for performance improvement in the pig sector, while the beef sector is witnessing a rebound from a cyclical low [6][7][47]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - The pig sector has shown significant improvement in performance, with 15 listed pig companies achieving a revenue of 196.98 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 16.33 billion yuan, up 625% year-on-year [9]. - The average pig price has been under pressure, dropping to a low of 13.96 yuan/kg in June 2025. However, leading companies like Muyuan and Wens continue to maintain high profitability per head due to their efficiency advantages [15][42]. - Recommendations include focusing on low-cost, high-certainty leaders such as Muyuan and Wens, as well as high-growth small pig companies like Shennong Group and Juxing Agriculture [7][43]. 2. Beef Industry - The beef sector is experiencing a cyclical recovery, with live cattle prices increasing significantly since mid-February 2025. As of September 8, 2025, the prices for fattened bulls, calves, and cull cows have risen by 2.39, 8.33, and 3.18 yuan/kg respectively [47]. - The report notes that the overall beef market is supported by a trend towards protein upgrading, which is expected to continue despite economic fluctuations [57]. 3. Animal Health Sector - The animal health sector is stabilizing, with a focus on the development of pet business. The rapid release of pet vaccines is anticipated to enhance valuations across companies [7]. 4. Seed Industry - The seed market is shifting from quantity to quality competition, with a focus on superior varieties as the core competitiveness of seed companies. The report emphasizes the importance of resource integration and mergers in the seed industry [7]. Companies with strong variety reserves, such as Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech, are expected to benefit [7].

- The report discusses the construction of an out-of-sample effective index allocation portfolio, focusing on three key aspects: price judgment, tool expression, and risk control. Price judgment involves forming predictions on the price trends of major assets, industries, or individual stocks using macro, meso, and micro-level information through qualitative, quantitative, or mixed methods. Tool expression refers to selecting investable tools for portfolio implementation, while risk control manages potential losses in the portfolio[9] - The primary goal of the strategy is to reduce overfitting risks to enhance out-of-sample effectiveness. This is achieved through three measures: expanding the pool of targets, neutralizing factors to reduce style impact, and managing portfolio risks to mitigate the impact of tail risks on excess returns. Signal sustainability outside the sample is emphasized as a critical factor[2] - The report highlights the advantages of using equity indices as allocation tools. Indices, being a basket of stocks, can hedge individual stock-specific risks to some extent. They also serve as better tools for expressing investment views due to their distinct target attributes. Additionally, risk models at the index level are more effective, providing better risk management outcomes[11][12] - The construction of the index risk control model follows a process similar to stock risk control models but requires additional steps to synthesize index-level data. The process includes selecting indices published before the given trading day, ensuring all index components are A-shares, obtaining index component lists and weights, and calculating weighted scores for industry/style exposures based on real-time weights. The model's effectiveness is significantly higher than individual stock models, with industry contributions surpassing style contributions[22][23] - The report categorizes factors into four main types: fundamental, analyst, price-volume, and high-frequency. Each type is further divided into subcategories, such as growth, profitability, valuation, momentum reversal, volatility, liquidity, and fund flows. The factor library includes a total of 275 factors, with specific counts for each subcategory[26][27][30] - Historical performance analysis of sub-strategies shows varying correlations among them, emphasizing the necessity of multi-strategy approaches. For the period of January to August 2025, fundamental factors like profitability and growth, as well as price-volume sub-strategies, performed well. However, individual sub-strategies experienced periodic drawdowns, highlighting the importance of diversification[27][30] - Based on selected sub-strategies, the report constructs a composite index scoring signal for portfolio allocation. Anchored to the CSI All Share Index, the portfolio controls deviations in industry and major style exposures. The out-of-sample performance, including returns, drawdowns, and tracking errors, aligns closely with backtest results[32][33] - The report evaluates the use of existing products, including active and passive types, for tracking the target index portfolio. Combining active and passive products yields better out-of-sample tracking results compared to using ETFs alone. While ETFs perform well in certain months, the combined approach demonstrates superior consistency[37][38] - The report identifies the overall performance of factors in 2025, with fundamental factors like growth and profitability, as well as price-volume factors such as momentum reversal, volatility, and liquidity, showing strong results[36]

- The report introduces a "Market Concentration Indicator" to quantify the phenomenon of stock price concentration during major market trends[1][11] - The Market Concentration Indicator is constructed by calculating the average price increase of the top 30% of stocks and subtracting the median price increase of the entire market[16][17] - The indicator has shown significant predictive power for short-term market returns (1-6 weeks) but negative predictive power for medium-term returns (8-12 weeks)[2][18] - The "Event-Driven Strategy" identifies lagging stocks within a leading industry/theme and buys them, holding for 60 trading days[28][29] - The strategy is tested using two classification standards: industry-based and theme-based, with industry-based classification showing higher returns and win rates[29][37][44] Model Backtest Results - Market Concentration Indicator: Positive correlation with future market returns for 1-6 weeks (2.60%, 4.20%, 4.90%, 1.60%)[21] - Event-Driven Strategy (Industry-based): 60-day return of 5.42%, highest return of 8.65% at T+24, win rate of 65% at T+14[29] - Event-Driven Strategy (Theme-based): 60-day return of 4.18%, highest return of 6.11% at T+24, win rate of 61% at T+11[37]