★ 数据速递 非农就业人数：美国1月新增非农就业人数为14.3万人，前值为30.7万人。 数据总体：美国1月新增非农就业人数明显回落但前值上调，且失业率有所下降。劳动力参与率小幅增长， 薪资环比增速也有所提升。 分项表现：医疗保健、零售贸易和政府部门是1月非农就业增长的主要来源，不过或受冬季严寒天气影响， 采矿业、油气开采业等行业就业有所下降，临时雇佣服务、休闲和酒店业等行业就业表现欠佳。 综合分析：在加州山火及冬季寒冷天气的背景下，因天气原因未能工作的人数升至57.3万人，为2011年1月 以来的最高水平，或受此影响2025年1月美国新增非农就业人数较前月明显回落。不过另一方面2024年12 月、11月的新增非农就业人数有所上修，2025年1月失业率也下降0.1个百分点至4.0%，且平均时薪环比增 速也有所提升，或反映美国就业市场整体仍相对稳健，在此背景下美联储可能更有底气暂停降息以相机应对 美国政府后续政策的不确定性。 ★ 核心要点 数据总体:美国1月新增非农就业人数明显回落但失业率有所下降。劳动力参与率小幅增 长,而薪资环比增速也有所提升。 失业率：美国1月失业率为4.0%，前值为4.1%。 劳动力参与 ...

Positive Factors - In December 2024, the year-on-year (YoY) growth rate of industrial enterprise profits turned positive at 11%, compared to a previous decline of -7.3%[1][6] - The YoY growth in operating income showed marginal improvement, contributing to the overall profit increase[2][7] - Profit margins remained high, with limited impact from the narrowing YoY decline in both the PPI purchasing price index and factory prices[3][8] - Finished goods inventory pressure was low, and the turnover speed accelerated, indicating improved operational efficiency[2][7] Negative Factors - The YoY growth in operating costs has increased, which could pressure profit margins moving forward[2][7] - The upcoming Spring Festival holiday may disrupt industrial production due to its timing compared to the previous year[4][11] - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies on China may also constrain the recovery of corporate profits[4][11] Industry Insights - Increased demand for winter heating has positively impacted the profit growth rate in the electric heating and water industry[5][9] - High-end equipment, intelligent manufacturing, and green manufacturing sectors are experiencing faster profit growth due to ongoing industrial transformation[5][9] - The effectiveness of consumption promotion policies is expected to continue supporting industrial profit recovery, particularly in consumer goods sectors like home appliances and food[4][10]

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The Manufacturing PMI for January is 49.1%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous value of 50.1%[1] - The Non-manufacturing PMI for January is 50.2%, down by 2 percentage points from the previous value of 52.2%[1] - The Composite PMI for January is 50.1%, a decline of 2.1 percentage points from the previous value of 52.2%[1] Group 2: Positive Factors - The manufacturing PMI's factory price and raw material purchase sub-items have shown improvement, while raw material and finished product inventories continue to decrease[3] - The Non-manufacturing PMI and Composite PMI remain in the expansion range, indicating ongoing growth in certain sectors[3] Group 3: Negative Factors - The Manufacturing PMI has fallen back into the contraction range, with new orders, new export orders, production, and imports all showing marginal weakness[3] - The construction industry PMI has significantly declined, reflecting seasonal impacts[3] Group 4: Sector Analysis - In manufacturing, industries such as food and beverage, textiles, and non-ferrous metal processing have seen production and new order indices enter the contraction range, contributing to the overall PMI decline[4] - In non-manufacturing, despite a decline in construction PMI, sectors related to travel and consumption have improved, driven by the Spring Festival effect, keeping the Composite PMI in the expansion range[4] Group 5: Future Outlook - Fiscal financing processes are expected to accelerate post-holiday, alongside policies promoting equipment updates and consumer goods exchanges, which may support demand recovery[4] - Improved construction conditions may lead to increased production activity, providing support for future PMI readings[4]

Market Performance - The public REITs market continued its downward trend, with the consumption sector experiencing the smallest decline and the municipal environmental sector facing the largest drop[1] - Total trading volume for public REITs today was 562 million CNY, up 0.97% from the previous trading day, indicating moderate trading activity[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.54% to close at 3240.94 points, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 3.77% and the ChiNext Index surged by 4.71%[1] Sector Analysis - Among individual REITs, Chongqing Liangjiang and Shen International REITs led the gains, rising by 0.44% and 0.29% respectively[1] - Conversely, Nanjing Expressway and He Da Gaoke REITs were the biggest losers, falling by 2.15% and 2.08% respectively[1] - The overall A-share market saw a trading volume of 1.37 trillion CNY, significantly higher than the previous day's 976.2 billion CNY[1] Bond Market Insights - In the bond market, most government bonds and futures strengthened, while real estate bonds generally declined[1] - The yield on the 10-year government bond was 1.615%, down by 3 basis points from the previous close, indicating a slight widening of the yield spread between 10-year and 1-year bonds[1]

Credit Analysis - Total new RMB loans in December amounted to 990 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 180 billion CNY[2] - Medium- and long-term loans for enterprises saw a significant decrease, contributing to a total credit growth rate of 7.6% in December[1] - Resident short-term loans slightly decreased, while medium- and long-term loans for residents continued to increase due to improved real estate sales[2] Social Financing Insights - Social financing scale reached 2.8575 trillion CNY in December, an increase of 924.9 billion CNY year-on-year[3] - Government and corporate bond financing showed significant growth, with government bonds notably increasing due to the issuance of refinancing special bonds[3] - The year-on-year decrease in non-bank deposits was influenced by reduced interbank deposit interest rates following new initiatives[3] Deposit Trends - Total deposits decreased by 1.4 trillion CNY year-on-year, primarily due to significant reductions in fiscal and non-bank deposits[8] - Both corporate and resident deposits increased year-on-year, with M1's decline narrowing to -1.4% and M2's growth rate rebounding to 7.3%[8] Future Outlook - The central bank plans to enhance counter-cyclical regulation and increase monetary and credit supply, aiming to lower social financing costs[4] - The mismatch of the Spring Festival holiday this year compared to last year may disrupt future financial data recovery[4] - Continuous monitoring of M1 trends is necessary due to adjustments in statistical criteria[4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or company Core Insights - The report highlights the transition from traditional real-time data warehouses to a more efficient solution based on SelectDB, addressing the limitations of existing architectures [21][56] - SelectDB offers significant improvements in query performance, operational costs, and real-time data analysis capabilities, enabling businesses to respond swiftly to market changes [57] Summary by Sections 1. Old Real-Time Data Warehouse Based on CDP - The existing architecture has limitations in data writing capacity, scalability, and data management, which hinder its ability to meet growing business demands [15][17] - The operational complexity and high costs associated with maintaining the CDP cluster are significant challenges [20] 2. Challenges Faced - The value of data diminishes over time, necessitating efficient data cleaning, transformation, and analysis to provide timely insights for decision-making [10][11] - There is a need for both high-efficiency offline processing and real-time data processing capabilities [11] 3. Solution Based on SelectDB - SelectDB simplifies the architecture with a core structure consisting of FrontEnd (FE) and BackEnd (BE), allowing for linear scalability and efficient maintenance [20] - It supports various data models and is highly compatible with MySQL syntax, facilitating seamless integration with BI tools [26] 4. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the internationalization capabilities and the potential for future diverse demands, supported by a strong development team and open-source ecosystem [60][61]

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The U.S. economy showed a strong-to-weak trend in the first three quarters of 2024, leading to a decrease in U.S. Treasury yields after an initial rise[1] - The Federal Reserve initiated a rate cut cycle in September 2024, with a total reduction of 100 basis points (Bps) expected by December 2024[1] - Concerns over potential inflation risks from Trump's policies may limit the Fed's ability to cut rates further, causing a rise in 10-year Treasury yields[1] Group 2: Trump's Policy Impact - Trump's administration is expected to prioritize spending cuts and inflation control policies, potentially leading to lower-than-expected inflation pressures[4] - The market has already priced in the risks of re-inflation due to Trump's policies, which could lead to a significant rise in Treasury yields[5] - Trump's proposed tax cuts and tariffs could increase inflation, but other policies aimed at reducing government spending may counteract this effect[6] Group 3: Consumer and Employment Trends - U.S. GDP growth is projected to slow down in 2025, with consumer spending becoming increasingly reliant on wage income due to diminishing support from savings and government transfers[13] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise, with structural risks accumulating in the job market, particularly among small and medium-sized enterprises[17] - Consumer spending growth may face challenges as government transfer payments are likely to decrease under Trump's administration[16] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The Fed's forecast for rate cuts in 2025 was reduced from 100 Bps to 50 Bps due to uncertainties surrounding Trump's policies[21] - If inflation pressures do not materialize as expected, the Fed may have more room to cut rates beyond the current forecast[23] - The potential for a return of the "Trump trade" could create upward pressure on Treasury yields later in 2025, depending on the economic landscape[33]

引言 回顾2024年，宏观经济弱修复伴随着有效需求不足特征延续，在此背景下一季度央行实施降准 +定向降息+5年期LPR调降，货币政策取向积极呵护资金价格持稳，同时财政支出较快但融资 偏慢推动"资产荒"进一步深化，债市呈现快速走牛。二季度以来央行多次提示长端利率风险且地 产政策预期升温带来债市的短暂回调，不过受收入端和融资端制约财政政策力度边际放缓，叠加 监管禁止"手工补息"使得存款流向非银，货基、债基和银行理财等规模明显扩容，机构欠配压力 仍较大，整体呈现资金面自发性宽松、债市区间震荡的格局。进入下半年，7月政治局会议后专 项债发行明显提速，且11月人大常委会明确本轮化债额度和具体方案，年末政府债供给进一步 增加，不过央行在三季度集中落地30Bps降息和50Bps降准，并随着货币政策调控框架升级加 大公开市场国债买卖和买断式逆回购力度，DR007资金利率整体稳定在略高于政策利率的水平 上波动，资金分层现象也较往年明显缓解。随着12月政治局会议在2011年来首次重提"适度宽 松的货币政策"，债市热情被进一步引燃，债市收益率持续下破历史低位。 展望2025年，既是"十四五"规划的收官之年，又是"十五五"的谋划之年 ...

如 有 问 题 敬 请 联 系 我 部 客 户 经 理 或 直 接 在 本 公 众 号 后 台 留 言 ★ 核心要点 会议结果：1、基准利率下调25Bps至4.25%-4.50%，IOER和ONRRP下调至4.4%和4.25%；2、缩表规模上 限维持600亿美元（250亿美元国债+350亿美元MBS）。 经济前景：1、经济描述维持"经济活动稳健扩张"，并将2024年与2025年的GDP增速预测分别由9月的2.0% 和2.0%上调至2.5%和2.1%。2、维持"失业率有所上行但仍然较低"的表述，并将2024年与2025年失业率预 测分别由4.4%和4.4%下调至4.2%和4.3%。3、维持"通胀率在实现2%的目标方面取得了进展"的表述，但将 2024-2026年末核心PCE预测分别由2.6%、2.2%和2.0%上调至2.8%、2.5%和2.2%。4、在有关后续降息 的表述方面，将"在考虑对联邦基金利率目标区间进行进一步调整时"改为"在考虑进一步调整联邦基金利率目标 区间的程度和时机时"。 利率预测：点阵图显示美联储对2025年末联邦基金利率预期中值由9月的3.4%提升至3.9%，暗示明年可能仅 有50Bps的降 ...