电子 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 7 月 21 日 002938.SZ 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 47.46 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 33.3 54.7 67.9 26.3 相对深圳成指 25.1 47.4 56.4 3.4 发行股数 (百万) 2,318.05 流通股 (百万) 2,306.78 总市值 (人民币 百万) 110,014.70 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) 1,004.54 主要股东 美港实业有限公司 66.17% (30%) (18%) (6%) 7% 19% 31% Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 鹏鼎控股 深圳成指 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 7 月 18 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《鹏鼎控股》20250411 《鹏鼎控股》20241031 《鹏鼎控股》20240815 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨 ...

Consumption Insights - China's final consumption expenditure accounted for 56.6% of GDP in 2024, with household consumption at 70.6% and government consumption at 29.4%[9] - The nominal growth of final consumption expenditure in 2024 was only 3.9%, the second-lowest since 1995, while actual growth was 3.7%[26] - Government consumption expenditure growth was particularly weak, with a nominal increase of just 0.7% in 2024, compared to a 5.0% increase in household consumption[26] Economic Factors - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth was 44.5% in 2024, down from over 50% in most years since 2011[25] - The decline in household consumption growth is attributed to slowing income growth, particularly in property and transfer income, which saw declines of 5.44% and 5.00% respectively[36] - The wealth effect has weakened due to a downturn in the real estate market, impacting consumer spending[46] Policy Recommendations - Short-term strategies to boost consumption include enhancing government fiscal capacity, increasing transfer income for residents, and improving the nominal growth environment[57] - Long-term strategies focus on reforming income distribution systems and promoting urbanization as key drivers for consumption growth[57] - Strengthening fiscal policy is essential, as local government leverage reached a historical high of 36.8% by early 2025, indicating a need for central government intervention[58] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence remains low, with the consumer confidence index at 88% and the consumer expectation index at 89.5% as of May 2025, both below the neutral level of 100%[47] - The Engel coefficient for urban residents was 28.8% in 2024, indicating a rise in basic consumption needs relative to total consumption[49]

Group 1: Key Insights on Macro Economy - The "urban renewal" is highlighted as a significant focus for future urban work, with infrastructure and real estate investment expected to be boosted [5][6] - The central urban work conference emphasized transitioning urbanization from rapid growth to stable development, focusing on quality and efficiency [5][6] - The meeting underscored the importance of "innovation" as a key theme, aiming to stimulate high-tech industry investment through urban renewal initiatives [7] Group 2: Insights on Intelligent Driving Industry - Intelligent driving is positioned as a leading application of physical AI, with the potential to drive investment opportunities across the industry chain [8][10] - The report identifies a shift in competitive focus among domestic automakers from merely increasing the number of operational cities to achieving nationwide functionality of intelligent driving features [9][10] - The technological paradigm shift towards data-driven and knowledge-driven approaches is enhancing the generalization performance of intelligent driving systems, paving the way for faster deployment of high-level intelligent driving [9] Group 3: Insights on Defense and Aerospace Industry - The company, 菲利华, is positioning its quartz fiber electronic cloth as a core material for M9 PCBs in the computing era, benefiting from the trend of domestic substitution [12][13] - The semiconductor and optical materials sectors are expected to gain from the increasing demand for high-purity, high-temperature resistant quartz products, with the global semiconductor quartz product market projected to grow from $3.226 billion in 2024 to $7.321 billion by 2031 [13] - 菲利华 is actively expanding its production capacity in the quartz fiber electronic cloth market, aiming to capture early advantages in this emerging sector [12][14]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic environment shows a strong performance in the first half of the year, with actual GDP growth of 5.3%, laying a solid foundation for the annual target of 5.0% [2][22] - Industrial added value and retail sales both maintained strong growth, with industrial added value increasing by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half of the year [2][22] - Fixed asset investment grew by 2.8%, although real estate development investment saw a decline of 11.2% [22][33] Group 2 - The report maintains a preference for asset allocation in the order of stocks, commodities, bonds, and currency, indicating a bullish outlook on stocks [3][4] - The stock market showed positive performance, with the ChiNext Index rising by 3.17% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.04% [37] - The bond market remains under pressure, with a recommendation for lower allocation due to potential short-term impacts from stock market fluctuations [4][43] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of fiscal policy in stimulating domestic demand, especially in light of uncertainties in external demand due to U.S. tariff policies [2][22] - The central urban work conference emphasized the need for a new model of real estate development, focusing on quality improvement rather than quantity expansion [20][33] - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from policies supporting consumption, with significant year-on-year growth in wholesale and retail sales of passenger vehicles [33][40]

Group 1 - The report highlights the expectation of a "de-involution" trend, which may lead to a temporary rise in market sentiment, particularly focusing on domestic computing power, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals as key investment opportunities [1][2][10] - The humanoid robotics industry is experiencing significant catalysts, with Yuzhu Technology set to debut on the A-share market, marking a critical milestone for the industry and enhancing resource integration and supply chain optimization [2][30][32] - The computing power industry is also seeing renewed catalysts, with the introduction of the H20 chip, which is expected to alleviate supply pressures and stimulate demand across the AI industry chain [2][36][40] Group 2 - The report indicates that the luxury car market will benefit from a reduction in tax thresholds for super luxury vehicles, which may disrupt the current market dynamics and provide competitive advantages for electric luxury cars [2][47] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is poised for growth due to recent policy adjustments that expand payment options for innovative drugs, enhancing their market potential [2][40][43] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of key sectors, with the automotive, pharmaceutical, and communication industries receiving significant capital inflows recently [2][43][44]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariffs' impact on US inflation has partially emerged, with varying effects on different commodities, and further inflation effects will depend on the domestic production process [3][12] - The US still needs restrictive monetary policy to curb inflation from the demand side, and the relatively normal wage growth helps suppress inflation [3][15] - Replacing the Fed Chair alone may not change the policy direction and could damage monetary policy credibility. The Fed's rate - cut rhythm depends on tariffs' impact on inflation, and currently, a rate cut restart in October is expected [3][16] - If the Fed "changes leadership" soon, it may benefit the precious metals market and steepen the US Treasury yield curve [3][16] Summary by Relevant Catalogs High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - Tariffs' impact on US inflation is partially reflected in terminal goods. Different products are affected differently, and the impact on inflation will further manifest with the domestic production process [3][12] - The US needs restrictive monetary policy to control inflation from the demand side. In June, the core commodity CPI expanded, and retail data showed resilience [3][15] - Replacing the Fed Chair may not change the overall FOMC attitude. The probability of Powell being replaced soon is low, and the Fed's rate - cut decision depends on tariff - inflation effects [3][16] - A list of high - frequency data's weekly环比 changes is provided, including data on food, other consumer goods, energy, metals, real estate, and shipping [19] High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators' Trend Comparison - Multiple charts show the comparison between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators such as PPI, CPI, and export amounts [24][26][29] Important High - frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Charts display US weekly economic indicators, employment data, sales data, financial conditions, and the implied interest - rate adjustment prospects of the Fed and ECB [84][86][91] Seasonal Trends of High - frequency Data - Charts present the seasonal trends of various high - frequency data, including production data, price indices, and real - estate - related data [95][99][109] High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - Charts show the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in these four cities [152][154]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [1] Core Insights - The State Council meeting emphasized the need for high-quality development in the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, addressing irrational competition and promoting a regulated competitive environment, which is beneficial for the NEV sector [1] - According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, NEV production and sales are expected to reach 6.968 million and 6.937 million units respectively in the first half of 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 41.4% and 40.3%, with NEV sales accounting for 44.3% of total new car sales [1] - The report highlights the clear trend towards the industrialization of solid-state batteries, suggesting a focus on related materials and equipment companies [1] - In the photovoltaic sector, the central economic work conference called for a comprehensive rectification of "involution" competition, leading to price increases in the upstream photovoltaic supply chain [1] - The hydrogen energy sector is seeing continuous policy support for industrialization, with recommendations to focus on electrolyzer manufacturers and companies benefiting from hydrogen infrastructure [1] Industry Dynamics - The electric equipment and new energy sector saw a 0.57% increase this week, with power generation equipment rising by 3.86% and the NEV index increasing by 2.62% [10] - The report notes that the photovoltaic sector experienced a decline of 2.53%, while the wind power sector fell by 0.27% [10] - The report indicates that the price of silicon materials has been supported by cost factors, with recent price adjustments reflecting a positive response to the "anti-involution" policy [1][15] - The report also mentions that the domestic lithium battery market is experiencing price fluctuations, with certain materials showing varying trends [14] Company Updates - Longi Green Energy is expected to report a net loss of 2.4 to 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of the year, while Tongwei Co. anticipates a net loss of 4.9 to 5.2 billion yuan [29] - Zhongke Electric is projected to achieve a net profit of 232 to 301 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 235% to 335% [29] - The report highlights that Tianqi Lithium is expected to report a net profit of 0 to 155 million yuan for the first half of the year [29] - The report also notes that Tianqi Materials has signed a procurement agreement to supply at least 550,000 tons of electrolyte products by the end of 2030 [29]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The chemical industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices. Key areas of focus for July include safety regulations, supply changes in the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance volatility due to export dynamics, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies [2][9] - The report suggests a medium to long-term investment strategy focusing on high oil prices, robust performance in the oil and gas extraction sector, and the growth potential in new materials, particularly in electronic and renewable energy materials [2][9] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - As of July 20, the SW basic chemical sector's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM excluding negative values) is 23.36, at the 69.37 percentile historically; the price-to-book ratio is 1.90, at the 18.24 percentile historically. The SW oil and petrochemical sector's price-to-earnings ratio is 11.20, at the 18.91 percentile historically; the price-to-book ratio is 1.22, at the 4.85 percentile historically [2][9] - In the week of July 14-20, 22 out of 100 tracked chemical products saw price increases, while 53 experienced declines, and 25 remained stable. The products with the highest weekly price increases included TDI, urea, and R22, while those with the largest declines included polyester FDY and acetic acid [8][30] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with stable dividend policies in the energy sector, as well as leading companies in high-growth sub-sectors such as fluorochemicals and vitamins, which are expected to maintain high demand and supply concentration [2][9] - Specific companies recommended for investment include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation, and several others in the electronic materials and new energy sectors [2][9] Price Trends - TDI prices increased by 18.83% week-on-week, reaching an average of 14,913 CNY/ton, while glyphosate prices rose by 1.57% to 25,901 CNY/ton. The report indicates that supply-side constraints and strong demand are likely to support these price trends in the near term [3][30]

Core Insights - The report highlights the current industry allocation positions of the Bank of China multi-strategy system, with the highest allocations in Computer (9.7%), Power Equipment and New Energy (8.0%), and Non-ferrous Metals (7.9) [1] - The average weekly return for the CITIC primary industries is 0.8%, with the best-performing sectors being Communication (7.1%), Pharmaceuticals (4.3%), and Computers (4.0%) [3][11] - The report indicates that the composite strategy has achieved a cumulative return of 12.6% year-to-date, outperforming the CITIC primary industry equal-weight benchmark by 1.9% [3] Industry Performance Review - The best-performing sectors this week are Communication (7.1%), Pharmaceuticals (4.3%), and Computers (4.0%), while the worst-performing sectors are Banks (-2.8%), Real Estate (-2.3%), and Coal (-2.2%) [3][11] - The average monthly return over the past month for the CITIC primary industries is 7.0% [3][11] Valuation Risk Warning - The report employs a valuation warning system based on the PB ratio over the past six years, identifying sectors with high valuation risks. Currently, the sectors of Retail, Automotive, and Media are flagged for high valuation warnings as their PB ratios exceed the 95th percentile [13][14] Single Strategy Performance - The top three industries based on the high prosperity industry rotation strategy (S1) are Computer, Non-ferrous Metals, and Power Equipment and New Energy [16][17] - The implied sentiment momentum tracking strategy (S2) ranks the top three industries as Computer, Communication, and Machinery [20][22] - The macro style rotation strategy (S3) identifies the top six industries as Comprehensive Finance, Computer, Media, National Defense Industry, Electronics, and Comprehensive [24][25] Strategy Adjustments - The report notes that only two weekly strategies made adjustments this week, with an overall slight change in positions. The composite strategy increased exposure to midstream non-cyclical sectors while reducing exposure to financial sectors [3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that advanced intelligent driving is expected to be the first application of physical AI, driven by rapid technological iterations, competitive strategies from Chinese automakers, and supportive regulatory policies [1][5][35] - The report identifies that the current focus of competition among automakers has shifted from the number of cities where autonomous driving is available to achieving nationwide coverage and from basic functionalities to more advanced features like parking assistance [1][20] - The report highlights that the penetration of L2+ intelligent driving functions is increasing, with expectations for significant growth in urban NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) capabilities in the coming years [1][23][35] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Intelligent driving is positioned as the first scenario for physical AI implementation, with the potential to provide significant societal benefits such as reducing accidents and improving traffic efficiency [18][19] - The report notes that the penetration rate of L2+ intelligent driving functions in China is projected to reach 57.4% by 2024, with L3 level vehicles expected to be commercially available soon [13][35] Technological Developments - The report discusses a paradigm shift in intelligent driving technology from rule-based to data-driven and knowledge-driven approaches, enhancing the performance and safety of autonomous systems [36][37] - It highlights the transition from modular architectures to end-to-end architectures, which optimize data flow and reduce information loss, thus improving the overall efficiency of intelligent driving systems [36][46] Competitive Landscape - The report indicates that competition among automakers is intensifying, with companies like BYD pushing advanced driving features down to lower-priced models, thereby accelerating the adoption of high-level intelligent driving [1][35] - It also mentions that regulatory support is crucial for the commercial rollout of L3 and L4 level autonomous vehicles, with various regions in China expanding pilot programs for these technologies [35][36] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that companies involved in the supply chain for automotive components, particularly those focusing on SoC (System on Chip), sensors, and communication technologies, are likely to benefit from the increasing penetration of advanced intelligent driving [1][5][35] - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Horizon Robotics, Black Sesame Technologies, Rockchip, and others involved in the intelligent driving ecosystem [1][5]