Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The short - term price of soybean meal futures is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, while the medium - term view is volatile. The price of palm oil futures shows a high - level volatility, and the short - term high - level volatility does not change the overall strong pattern [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Views**: Intraday view is volatile and slightly stronger, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile and slightly stronger [5]. - **Core Logic**: The supply pressure of new US soybeans has decreased, and the support for US soybean futures prices has increased. The sowing weather of new crops in South America and the harvesting weather of US soybeans have attracted market attention. The weak domestic situation persists, with some oil mills experiencing inventory overstock and urging提货. The market's expectation of a supply gap in the fourth quarter still supports the far - month soybean meal prices [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Views**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all volatile and slightly stronger [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The upward trend of palm oil futures prices has slowed down, and the oil market has entered a high - level volatility. The fluctuation of international oil prices has highlighted the bio - fuel attribute of palm oil. Currently, the production growth rate of the palm oil industry chain has slowed down, exports remain strong, and the favorable supply - demand environment continues to support the international palm oil prices. The short - term high - level volatility of palm oil futures prices does not change the overall strong pattern [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 8 月 20 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 产业矛盾累积，钢价偏弱运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 市场情绪趋弱，黑色金属集体下行，且螺纹钢供需格局表现不佳，建筑钢厂生产趋稳，螺纹钢 产量环比微降，但依旧处于年内高位，且品种吨钢利润尚可，生产积极性未退，供应压力有所增 加。与此同时，螺纹钢需求表现疲弱，高频指标再度下行，且下游行业未见好转，淡季需求弱势格 局未变，继续 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore market is expected to continue its oscillatory adjustment due to a weakening supply - demand pattern. The price of iron ore is likely to be under pressure, and investors should pay attention to the MA5 line pressure and the steel mills' production situation [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory and weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is also oscillatory and weak. The suggestion is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the weakening supply - demand pattern and the continuation of price adjustment [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. Steel mills' production is stabilizing, and the terminal consumption of ore has slightly increased from a high level, showing some demand resilience which supports the ore price. However, the profit of steel mills is shrinking, limiting the incremental space and weakening the positive effect. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has rebounded, and the shipments from miners have increased significantly to a yearly high. Overseas ore supply has recovered as expected, and domestic ore production has also resumed. Ore supply has returned to a high level. - Overall, although the demand shows some resilience, the supply is at a high level and the positive effect of demand is weakening. The fundamentals of the ore market are weak, and combined with poor market sentiment, the over - valued ore price will continue to adjust oscillatory [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bearish outlook on the fuel oil industry [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the expected oversupply in the oil market, the international and domestic crude oil futures prices have been declining, dragging down the high - sulfur fuel oil futures 2510 contract. With the cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the poor supply - demand structure of fuel oil, the contract is expected to remain weak [2][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Impact of Geopolitical Events on Oil Prices - After the US - Russia summit, although no agreement was reached on issues such as a cease - fire in Ukraine, both sides considered the meeting constructive. With more leaders planning to meet, the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to cool down, leading to a shrinkage of the international crude oil futures premium. As fuel oil prices are 91.5% correlated with crude oil prices, the cost support for high - sulfur fuel oil futures has weakened [3] Asian Fuel Oil Supply Situation - Since late July, the Asian fuel oil market has been in a state of continuous oversupply. More fuel oil, including that from the Middle East and Russia, is flowing into Asia. The spot spread of Asian high - sulfur fuel oil has fallen to a three - year low, with ample supply and weak downstream demand. The fuel oil arbitrage cargo has been steadily flowing into the Asian market, and the seasonal power generation demand in South Asian countries has not improved the market fundamentals [4] Domestic Fuel Oil Demand Situation - Since mid - August, the weekly wholesale and ex - warehouse volume of domestic marine heavy - fuel oil has decreased by 2.09% (0.15 tons) to 7.04 tons. The overall market demand is weak, with cautious procurement and sales by downstream enterprises, sparse orders, and insufficient market buying sentiment. Only in Shandong, due to the small - scale rigid - demand purchases by some ship suppliers, the ex - warehouse volume has increased [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil 2510 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a bullish bias" respectively, and it is expected to run with a bullish bias [1]. - After the release of the previous bearish sentiment, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract stopped falling and stabilized on the night session of Monday this week. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and stabilizing trend on Tuesday [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Time - cycle Explanation**: Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. The distinction of "oscillation with a bullish/ bearish bias" only applies to the intraday view [1][4]. - **Price Calculation Rule**: For varieties with night sessions, the starting price is the night - session closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - session closing price of the current day to calculate the price change [2]. - **Fluctuation Classification**: A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is "oscillation with a bearish bias", an increase of 0 - 1% is "oscillation with a bullish bias", and an increase greater than 1% is a rise [3]. - **Driving Logic of Crude Oil Price**: The IEA's energy outlook report shows that due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, the global crude oil market will face a record supply glut next year. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined. Crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. With the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium has been given back [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data from Baocheng Futures on August 19, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of multiple futures varieties including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][21][27][40][51]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Power Coal - The basis data from August 12 to August 18, 2025, shows that the basis on August 18 was - 100.4 yuan/ton, compared to - 113.4 yuan/ton on August 12. The 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 inter - period spreads were all 0.0 during this period [2]. Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on August 18 was 163.63 yuan/ton [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP are provided from August 12 to August 18, 2025. For instance, the basis of rubber on August 18 was - 920 yuan/ton [9]. - Inter - period data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given, such as the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rubber being 85 yuan/ton. Inter - variety data for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are also presented. For example, the LLDPE - PVC value on August 18 was 2269 yuan/ton [11]. Black Metals - Inter - period data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rebar was 46.0 yuan/ton. Inter - variety data for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on August 18 was 4.09 [20]. - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on August 18 was 145.0 yuan/ton [21]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are given. For example, the basis of copper on August 18 was 220 yuan/ton [28]. - **London Market**: LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on August 18, 2025, are presented. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper was (96.75) [35]. Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on August 18 was - 4 yuan/ton [41]. - Inter - period data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc., are given. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of soybeans No.1 was 41 yuan/ton. Inter - variety data for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are also presented. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on August 18 was 1.86 [41]. Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on August 18 was 1.61 [52]. - Inter - period data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts and the next - quarter and current - quarter contracts, are presented. For example, the next - month minus current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 39.8 [54].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic rubber and synthetic rubber futures markets are expected to maintain a moderately strong and volatile trend. The 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures and the 2510 contract of synthetic rubber futures are both likely to show a moderately strong performance on August 20, 2025 [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Trends**: In the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, the market shows a volatile trend, with an intraday moderately strong bias. The overall view is a moderately strong operation [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The market is driven by supply - demand fundamentals. Currently, the Southeast Asian rubber - tapping season and continuous new rubber output in domestic production areas lead to high supply pressure. However, the heavy - truck sales and new - car production and sales data in August are better than expected, showing a significant year - on - year increase. On the night of August 18, 2025, the 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures closed slightly up 0.06% at 15,835 yuan/ton, and is expected to continue the moderately strong trend on August 19 [5]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Trends**: In the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, the market shows a volatile trend, with an intraday moderately strong bias. The overall view is a moderately strong operation [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The market is also driven by supply - demand fundamentals. The domestic synthetic rubber plant load is stable, resulting in continuous supply pressure. The heavy - truck sales and new - car production and sales data in August are better than expected, showing a significant year - on - year increase. On the night of August 18, 2025, the 2510 contract of synthetic rubber futures closed slightly up 0.17% at 11,830 yuan/ton, and is expected to continue the moderately strong trend on August 19 [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, showing a volatile trend in the short and medium - term and a volatile and weak trend intraday [1][5]. - With the weakening of the previous macro - driving force, methanol has returned to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, and downstream demand is in the off - season, leading to a downward shift in the price center [5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - The short - term view of methanol 2601 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is volatile and weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1]. - On the night session of Monday this week, the price of the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract closed slightly lower by 1.04% to 2375 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend on Tuesday [5]. Driving Logic - The weakening of coal prices and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol are the main reasons for the weak operation of methanol prices. The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is large, and downstream demand is in the off - season [1][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For the 2601 contract of coking coal, in the short - term, it is in the range of oscillation; in the medium - term, it is oscillating and showing a slightly stronger trend; and on the intraday basis, it is also oscillating and slightly stronger. The overall view is oscillation due to the divergence between bulls and bears [1]. - For the 2601 contract of coke, in the short - term, it is in the range of oscillation; in the medium - term, it is oscillating and slightly stronger; and on the intraday basis, it is also oscillating and slightly stronger. The overall view is oscillation as multiple factors are intertwined and coke is operating at a high level [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Conditions - On August 18, the main contract of coking coal dropped from a high level, closing at 1187.5 yuan/ton with a decline of 2.94%. The main contract of coke also dropped from a high level, closing at 1702 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.56% [5][6]. 3.2 Core Logic - For coking coal, there is an increase in the divergence between bulls and bears, and the futures have entered a high - level oscillation pattern. After the "anti - involution" rectification starting from July 1, the coking coal market may continue to improve gradually. Through mild and orderly capacity optimization and industrial upgrading, the oversupply situation in the industry is expected to gradually ease, and the market supply - demand relationship will move towards a more balanced direction. Although there may be short - term adjustments, the medium - and long - term price center still has an upward basis [5]. - For coke, since August, there have been continuous disturbances in the news of the supply side of coking coal, the raw material of coke. Although the actual domestic coking coal supply has not been significantly affected so far, market expectations have improved. After the phased adjustment, the futures price of coke may still show a characteristic of being more likely to rise than to fall [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Report's Core View - The overall view on stock index futures is bullish. For the IH2509 contract, the short - term view is consolidation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is consolidation with a slight upward bias, with an overall upward outlook due to strong support from positive policy expectations [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is consolidation with a slight upward bias, and the medium - term view is upward. The stock index is expected to be mainly consolidation with a slight upward bias in the short term as the risk appetite in the stock market continues to recover [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 - For the IH2509 contract, short - term: consolidation; medium - term: upward; intraday: consolidation with a slight upward bias; overall view: upward. The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 - Yesterday, all stock indexes showed a trend of rising and then falling, closing higher after a volatile day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2809.1 billion yuan, an increase of 536.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The trading volume has been above 2 trillion yuan for many days, and the margin trading balance has also risen above 2 trillion yuan, indicating optimistic market sentiment and a continuous increase in investors' risk appetite [5]. - From the policy perspective, positive policy expectations strongly support the stock index. Anti - involution and consumption - promotion policies promote a moderate recovery of the price index from both supply and demand sides, repair corporate profits, and drive a positive cycle in the "residential consumption - corporate profit - employee salary" chain, increasing the expectation of an improving macro - economic fundamentals [5]. - From the industry perspective, the booming development of AI technology strengthens the logic of "domestic substitution" in technology. The phased easing of tariff issues is beneficial to enhancing the competitiveness of China's industrial chain, promoting scientific and technological innovation and technological progress [5]. - From the capital perspective, patient capital such as social security and insurance funds continues to enter the market, margin trading funds enter the market more quickly, and the non - bank deposit data in July increased significantly year - on - year, indicating a loose capital situation and continuous capital inflow into the stock market [5].