投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 8 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2510 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 短线看弱 | 美乌及俄乌趋于缓和，金价承压 | | 铜 | 2509 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 宏观氛围回暖，铜价企稳回升 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 策略参考 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 8 月 19 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：巴西大豆高升水的格局难有改变，这为豆粕提供了坚实的原料成本支撑，远月合约仍有供应和 成本的双重支撑。短期豆粕期价震荡偏强，内外价差修复。 策略参考 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：原油跟涨为棕榈油带来提振，此外东南亚棕榈油出口需求强劲，产量增幅不大，也对棕榈油期 价带来支撑。国内棕榈油缺乏自身驱动，整体跟随国际棕榈油期价波动，短期仍是易涨难跌走势。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive overview of macro - economic data, commodity investment trends, financial news, and stock market developments. It indicates that the government is taking measures to boost the economy, and various markets are influenced by factors such as geopolitical events, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics. For the bond market, different research institutions have different outlooks, with some expecting a downward trend in interest rates, while others are cautious about short - term fluctuations [1][2][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Macro Data** - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter. Manufacturing PMI in July 2025 was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month. Non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in July was 50.1%, also a decline from the previous month. Social financing scale in July was lower than the previous month and the same period last year. M1 and M2 growth rates increased in July compared to the previous month and the same period last year, while M0 growth decreased slightly. Financial institution RMB loans decreased in July. CPI was flat in July, and PPI remained negative. Fixed - asset investment growth slowed down, while social consumption and export and import growth showed positive trends [1]. **Commodity Investment** **Comprehensive** - The government aims to enhance macro - policy effectiveness, stimulate consumption, expand investment, and stabilize the real estate market. The central bank will boost the development of the movable - property financing market to support small and medium - sized enterprises. New futures and options contracts have been launched by the Shanghai Futures Exchange [2][3]. **Metals** - Geopolitical developments may ease tensions and reduce safe - haven demand. A company agreed to acquire gold and copper assets from BHP for $465 million. Peru's copper production increased by 7.1% in June. Some institutions raised the gold price target. Metal inventories at the London Metal Exchange generally decreased [4][5][6]. **Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals** - Some regions in Shandong plan to raise coke prices. The prices of coking coal and coke in the circulation field increased in early August. Glencore applied to include two copper projects worth over $13 billion in Argentina's investment incentive program [7]. **Energy and Chemicals** - Oil prices rose due to geopolitical tensions and supply concerns. Citi expects Russian pipeline gas supply to Europe to potentially resume by the end of 2025, which affects its gas price forecast. Indonesia anticipates an increase in oil and gas production in 2026 [9]. **Agricultural Products** - The price of soybean meal increased in early August. The anti - subsidy investigation on EU dairy products was extended. There are developments in corn, wheat, and ethanol production, and Brazil's competition authority is investigating the "soybean suspension plan" [10]. **Financial News** **Open Market** - The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 154.5 billion yuan on August 18. The Ministry of Finance and the central bank carried out treasury cash management operations with a winning bid of 120 billion yuan and an interest rate of 1.78% [12]. **Important News** - The government is committed to economic stability and market confidence. The trading association is investigating the misappropriation of debt - financing funds. There are various government bond operations, and the central bank signed a currency swap agreement with Thailand. There are international political developments and corporate bond - related events [13][14][15]. **Bond Market Review** - Bond yields generally rose, and bond futures prices fell. Different bond - related interest rates showed various trends, and overseas bond yields also had different movements. Some institutions have different outlooks on the bond market [17][18][22]. **Foreign Exchange Market** - The on - shore and offshore RMB showed different trends against the US dollar, and the US dollar index rose, affecting other major currencies [21]. **Research Report Highlights** - Different institutions have different views on the bond market, including expectations of interest - rate decline, focus on structural policies, and suggestions on convertible bond investment [22][23][24]. **Today's Reminders** - Many bonds are scheduled to be listed, issued, and have payments on August 19 [25][26]. **Stock Market News** - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3700 points, driven by various types of funds. The number of new accounts at securities brokerages increased, and there is an expected inflow of more funds into the A - share market. The Hong Kong stock market had mixed performance, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange is researching the feasibility of adding a special voting channel for margin - trading accounts [27][28].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View The report predicts that the price of thermal coal will remain strong. The domestic thermal coal price has been running strongly this week, and it is expected to continue this trend due to factors such as high - temperature - driven demand, limited supply growth, and inventory reduction [5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Market Performance - As of August 14, the price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 692 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week, approaching the 700 - yuan mark [5]. - The overall atmosphere in the coal market is still optimistic, and coal prices are expected to remain strong in the middle and late August due to high temperatures [5]. Supply Side - In July, the national raw coal output was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, with a daily average output of 1.229 million tons; from January to July, the cumulative national raw coal output was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [5]. - Since August, affected by rainfall in major production areas, over - production inspections, and coal mine maintenance, thermal coal production has not recovered significantly, and supply growth in production areas is slow [5]. Demand Side - As of August 7, the daily coal consumption of 17 inland provinces was 409,200 tons, an increase of 24,700 tons week - on - week; the daily coal consumption of 8 coastal provinces was 251,800 tons, an increase of 28,500 tons week - on - week [5]. - The National Climate Center predicts that from late August to early September, temperatures in most parts of East China, Central China, and the northeast of Southwest China will be significantly higher, and the hydropower substitution effect may still be limited [5]. Inventory - As of August 14, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.3636 million tons, with a significant inventory reduction of 118,300 tons during the week, and the inventory was 118,200 tons lower than the same period last year [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall view on Treasury bond futures is "oscillation". In the short - term, Treasury bond futures are expected to operate in an oscillatory and weakly downward manner. The reasons are that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased, and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased, leading to a shift of funds from bonds to stocks and suppressing the demand for buying Treasury bonds [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillatory and weakly downward", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased, and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased [1] 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillatory and weakly downward", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that on August 16, 2025, the central bank released the second - quarter monetary policy implementation report, emphasizing "refinement" and "structure", which weakened the expectation of a comprehensive interest rate cut. Also, the risk appetite in the stock market has been rising recently, and funds have shifted from bonds to stocks, suppressing the demand for buying Treasury bonds. Overall, Treasury bond futures are expected to operate in an oscillatory and weakly downward manner in the short term [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The iron ore market shows a trend of increasing supply and demand, but the profit of steel mills is shrinking, and the fundamentals of iron ore are expected to weaken. The iron ore price is expected to continue the volatile adjustment, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2]. 3) Summary According to the Catalog Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the significant increase in supply and the volatile adjustment of ore prices [1]. Market Driving Logic - Both the supply and demand sides of iron ore have increased. The production of steel mills has stabilized, and the terminal consumption of ore has rebounded to a high level this year, showing good demand resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the profit of steel mills is shrinking, and the positive effect is weakening. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased, the shipments of miners have risen significantly to a high level this year, the overseas ore supply has increased, and domestic ore production has also recovered, resulting in an increase in ore supply. - Currently, the demand for iron ore has good resilience, which supports the ore price. But the supply has increased, and the incremental space for demand is limited. The fundamentals of ore are expected to weaken, and considering the relatively high valuation, the ore price is expected to continue the volatile adjustment [2].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 8 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面表现偏弱，钢价承压下行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 关税扰动再现，市场情绪趋弱，黑色金属集体承压走弱，相应的螺纹钢基本面表现偏弱，建筑 钢厂生产趋稳，螺纹钢周产量环比微降，但品种吨钢利润尚可，生产积极性未退，后续存有增量空 间。与此同时，螺纹钢需求如期走弱，高频指标环比下行，且下游行业并未好转，需求弱势格局未 变，继续 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend due to strong demand factors [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 is likely to continue in a weaker pattern under the influence of a sharp decline in domestic coal futures prices and a weak supply - demand fundamental [4]. - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend as the demand growth rate has declined and the OPEC+ is increasing production, which may lead to a record supply surplus in the global crude oil market next year [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 10, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 61.99 million tons, a decrease of 1.19 million tons or 1.89% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.24%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 2.11%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 0.81 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.93 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.25 percentage points [8]. - As of August 15, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points month - on - month and 10.55 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, an increase of 2.56 percentage points month - on - month and 3.69 percentage points year - on - year [8]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. The production and sales growth rates increased by 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared with January - June [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [9]. - In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.00%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.35%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.16%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8633 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 18,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,500 tons, and a significant increase of 79,000 tons compared with the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.47%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 9.17%, a week - on - week increase of 2.90%. The acetic acid operating rate was 86.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.11%. The MTBE operating rate was 55.12%, a week - on - week increase of 1.21% [10]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.18 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.61%. As of August 15, 2025, the futures contract profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 172 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 162 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 29 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 891,100 tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 87,800 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 295,100 tons, and a significant increase of 102,100 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of August 14, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 295,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,900 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 56,700 tons, and a significant decrease of 142,700 tons compared with 438,400 tons in the same period last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 411, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 74 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.327 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 43,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 27,000 barrels per day [11]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 427 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 3.036 million barrels and a significant decrease of 3.98 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 23.051 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 45,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 403 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 226,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 96.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 1.7 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 4.9 percentage points [12]. - As of August 12, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 116,742 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 25,087 contracts and a significant decrease of 66,428 contracts or 36.27% compared with the July average of 183,170 contracts. As of August 12, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 199,820 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 30,594 contracts and a significant decrease of 20,256 contracts or 9.20% compared with the July average of 220,076 contracts [12]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,750 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 15,820 yuan/ton | - 85 yuan/ton | - 1,070 yuan/ton | + 85 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,340 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 2,396 yuan/ton | - 16 yuan/ton | - 56 yuan/ton | + 16 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 459.6 yuan/barrel | - 0.3 yuan/barrel | 486.5 yuan/barrel | - 1.6 yuan/barrel | - 26.9 yuan/barrel | + 1.3 yuan/barrel | [13] 3. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to rubber (such as rubber basis, 9 - 1 spread, etc.), methanol (such as methanol basis, 9 - 1 spread, etc.), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, WTI and Brent net - position changes, etc.) [14][26][39]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Copper**: Today, copper prices oscillated weakly, with the main contract closing below 79,000. The 9 - 10 spread increased. Domestically, the atmosphere is positive with rising stock indices, while overseas, the improving US - Russia relations maintain high market risk appetite. It's the off - season in China, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased by 11,800 tons on Monday compared to last Thursday. With macro - level benefits and weak industrial reality, the futures price will oscillate [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum dropped sharply in the morning and rebounded slightly in the afternoon, showing overall weak performance with decreasing positions. The non - ferrous sector oscillated weakly. Upstream bauxite port inventory, mid - stream electrolytic aluminum social inventory, and downstream aluminum rod inventory all decreased, which is beneficial for aluminum prices. As the peak season approaches, the futures price is expected to strengthen [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel decreased with increasing positions, and the main contract price approached the 120,000 mark. The non - ferrous sector oscillated weakly, and nickel prices were weaker than the sector. Nickel ore port inventory and SHFE inventory both increased, which is negative for nickel prices. The short - term commodity market atmosphere has cooled, and weak industrial support has led to a significant decline in nickel prices. Attention should be paid to the technical support at the 120,000 mark [7]. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 18, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 144,200 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons compared to the 11th and 11,800 tons compared to the 14th [9]. - **Aluminum**: From August 11 - 17, the domestic aluminum rod delivery volume was 49,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the previous period [10]. - **Nickel**: On August 18, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,300 - 123,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,650 yuan/ton, a 150 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel was 2,100 - 2,300 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowinning nickel was - 50 - 300 yuan/ton [11]. Relevant Charts Copper - **Base difference, inventory, and other related charts**: Include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [12][14][15] Aluminum - **Base difference, inventory, and other related charts**: Include aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, alumina inventory, etc [25][27][29] Nickel - **Base difference, inventory, and other related charts**: Include nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc [37][40][41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated downward with a daily decline of 0.88%, showing a pattern of increasing volume and decreasing positions. In the current situation of stable supply and weak demand growth, the fundamentals of rebar continue to weaken. During the off - season, steel prices are still prone to pressure. The relative positives are the significant increase in costs and the limited real - world contradictions under low inventory, which limit the downward space. In the short term, the price will continue to show a weakly oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4][37]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly with a daily decline of 0.20%, also showing increasing volume and decreasing positions. At present, the supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coil has improved, but demand concerns remain, and supply is expected to increase. The fundamentals have not improved substantially. The relative positives are cost increases and production restrictions. With the game of multiple and short factors, the price of hot - rolled coil is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4][38]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated downward with a daily decline of 0.64%, showing an increase in both volume and positions. Currently, the demand for iron ore has good resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the supply of ore has increased, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the valuation is relatively high, so the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the ore price will continue to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - The Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products in the tariff list. The expanded tariff list took effect on August 18, 2025 [6]. - In July 2025, the wholesale sales of national passenger vehicle manufacturers reached 2.22 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. From January to July, the wholesale sales were 15.5 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.4%. The wholesale growth rate of independent car companies was 20% year - on - year, while that of luxury cars decreased by 16% year - on - year [7]. - In July 2025, China exported 6.13 million tons of steel plates, a year - on - year increase of 19.0%. From January to July, the cumulative export was 42.45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. In July, the export of steel bars was 1.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 77.2%, and the cumulative export from January to July was 10.62 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.4% [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,280 and 3,320 respectively, with the national average price at 3,374, showing a decrease of 10 and 0 respectively compared to the previous period, and the national average decreased by 10. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,450 and 3,410 respectively, with the national average price at 3,501, showing a decrease of 10 and 10 respectively compared to the previous period, and the national average increased by 3 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 770, a decrease of 2 compared to the previous period, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 778, remaining unchanged [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures main contract was 3,155, a decrease of 0.88%, with a trading volume of 1,316,477 and an open interest of 1,609,893, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in positions [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures main contract was 3,419, a decrease of 0.20%, with a trading volume of 503,900 and an open interest of 1,202,731, also showing an increase in volume and a decrease in positions [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract was 772.0, a decrease of 0.64%, with a trading volume of 281,507 and an open interest of 448,903, showing an increase in both volume and positions [11]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, iron ore inventories at 45 ports, and inventories of 247 steel mills [13][18][20]. - It also includes charts related to steel mill production, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [30][32][36]. 3.5 Market Outlook - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. The production of construction steel mills is stable, with a slight decrease in weekly output. Demand has weakened, and during the off - season, prices are still under pressure. However, cost increases and low inventory limit the downward space, so the short - term trend will continue to be weakly oscillating [37]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern has improved, but demand concerns remain, and supply is expected to increase. With the game of multiple and short factors, the price is expected to continue to oscillate [38]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has weakened. Although demand resilience supports the price, supply has increased, and the upward driving force is not strong, so the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level [38].