投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 12 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡偏弱 | 现实格局偏弱，上行驱动不强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局变化不大，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗持续下行，且盈利状况不佳，弱势格局 难改，继续承压矿价。与此同时，国内港口到货有所回落，而海外矿商发运环比增加，两者继续位于 年内高位，海外矿石供应表现积极，而内矿供应趋稳，矿石供应维持高位。总之，短期利多因素发酵 支撑矿价重 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures are expected to run in a moderately bullish pattern on Wednesday. The market is influenced by a combination of factors, with the weakening of geopolitical premiums due to the potential cooling - off of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the improvement of demand expectations as the northern hemisphere enters the winter consumption peak season [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Time - cycle Views on Crude Oil 2601 - Short - term: The short - term view (within one week) is that the crude oil 2601 will be in a sideways pattern [1]. - Medium - term: The medium - term view (two weeks to one month) is that the crude oil 2601 will be in a sideways pattern [1]. - Intraday: The intraday view is that the crude oil 2601 will be moderately bullish [1]. 3.2. Price Movement Calculation Rules - For varieties with night trading sessions, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price, and the price change is calculated based on these [2]. 3.3. Strength Classification Rules - A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline between 0 - 1% is considered moderately weak, a rise between 0 - 1% is considered moderately strong, and a rise of more than 1% is considered strong. The moderately strong/moderately weak classification only applies to intraday views [3][4]. 3.4. Driving Logic of Crude Oil (SC) Price Movement - The potential cooling - off of the Russia - Ukraine conflict with US mediation is weakening the geopolitical premium for international oil prices, thus reducing the impetus for further price rebounds. However, the approaching winter consumption peak season in the northern hemisphere is improving the demand outlook, and the future supply - demand structure of the oil market is expected to improve. On Tuesday night, domestic crude oil futures showed a slightly bearish sideways movement with a slight decline, but are expected to continue the moderately bullish trend on Wednesday [5].

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-12-03 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 供需预期改善，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期国内甲醇期货供需预期改善，驱动甲醇期价反弹主要有四方面原因：其一，伊朗限 气政策落地。11 月下旬伊朗进入冬季采暖季，天然气供应受限导致甲醇装置减产，12 月进口量大幅 减少，1 月或进一步回落，供应缺口预期升温。其二，地缘制裁持续干扰。美国对伊朗化工物流制裁 未放松，部分航运中断加剧进口不确定性，支撑市场乐观情绪。其三，我国北方采暖季刚需释放。 "煤改醇"民用采暖需求稳定增长 ，11 月甲醇燃料消耗量预估达 140-160 万吨，12 月或攀升至 150- ...

宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策利好预期发酵 VS 资金了结意 愿上升 | 备注： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡小幅回调。沪深京三市全天成交额 16073 亿元，较上日缩量 2822 亿元。 目前股市成交金额有所回落，融资买入资金以及 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The soybean meal market shows a differentiated trend of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with funds shifting to the 2605 contract. The soybean meal price will continue to fluctuate weakly in the range under the dual influence of cost support and ample supply. The palm oil market is relatively strong under the support of the external market and the weakening of the ringgit. The oil and fat sector will maintain a range - bound and slightly stronger operation, and key factors such as domestic de - stocking rhythm, South American weather changes, and international biodiesel policy trends need to be focused on [5][6][7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **Short - term View**: Oscillating [5] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [5] - **Intraday View**: Oscillating weakly [5] - **Reference View**: Oscillating weakly [5] - **Core Logic**: The market shows a differentiated trend of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with obvious signs of funds shifting to the 2605 contract. The US soybean futures price fluctuates between China's procurement expectations and South American weather changes. The reduction of rainfall in southern Brazil and Argentina provides a weather theme, but the actual implementation of US soybean exports is still uncertain. Domestically, high soybean meal inventories and sufficient spot supply put pressure on the soybean meal basis. However, the logic of the forward market is different, and the strengthening of the M2605 contract reflects the market's concerns about the expected increase in future import costs and potential South American weather risks. In the short term, the soybean futures price will continue to oscillate weakly in the range under the dual influence of cost support and ample supply [5][6]. 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - **Short - term View**: Oscillating strongly [5] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [5] - **Intraday View**: Oscillating strongly [5] - **Reference View**: Oscillating strongly [5] - **Core Logic**: Palm oil is relatively strong under the support of the external market and the weakening of the ringgit. Currently, the total inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats has continued to climb to 2445400 tons, and the palm oil inventory is at a historically high level in the same period, highlighting the pressure of spot supply. The overall demand side provides limited support for prices. The short - term market is caught in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Overall, the oil and fat sector maintains a range - bound and slightly stronger operation, and key factors such as domestic de - stocking rhythm, South American weather changes, and international biodiesel policy trends need to be focused on [7].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content [1] Group 2: Core Views - For gold, the short - term view is "偏强", the medium - term view is "震荡", the intraday view is "震荡偏强", and the reference view is "观望". The core logic is the升温 of interest - rate cut expectations and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation [1] - For copper, the short - term view is "震荡", the medium - term view is "强势", the intraday view is "强势", and the reference view is "长线看强". The core logic is macro - economic easing and mine - end production cuts [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - Yesterday in the domestic night session, the gold price weakened continuously, with New York gold dropping to 4200 US dollars and Shanghai gold falling below the 950 - yuan mark, then it stabilized and rebounded [3] - Since late November, the upward momentum of the gold price has come from the continuous increase in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the decline of the US dollar index. The current market expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in December is close to 90%, with limited upside space. The weak gold trend is due to the recovery of market risk appetite. Technically, attention should be paid to the 4200 - dollar support, corresponding to the 950 - yuan mark of Shanghai gold [3] Copper - Yesterday, the copper price rose and then fell again, with little change in the open interest. In the short term, the open interest of Shanghai copper increased from 510,000 contracts to 580,000 contracts, showing obvious upward movement with increased positions, strong upward momentum. But there is strong technical pressure above, facing the high - level pressure of the past five years, the long - short game intensifies, and the intraday fluctuation is large [4]

2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-03 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多因素支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多因素支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着国内云南和海南天胶产区逐渐临近停割季，未来国产全乳胶供应预期逐渐下降 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on December 3, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data for power coal from November 26 to December 2, 2025, is presented, but specific numerical values in the table are incomplete [1][2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - Basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are provided, including specific numerical values such as basis and ratio [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are given [9] - Inter - period spreads data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented, including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads [10] - Inter - variety spreads data of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are provided [10] 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are presented [20] - Inter - period spreads data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given, including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month (10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month (10) minus 5 - month spreads [19] - Inter - variety spreads data of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are provided [19] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are presented [29] 3.4.2 London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on December 2, 2025, are provided [34] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are presented [42] - Inter - period spreads data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given, including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads [42] - Inter - variety spreads data of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are provided [41] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are presented [53] - Inter - period spreads data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including next - month minus current - month and next - quarter minus current - quarter spreads, are given [53]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-12-03 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.20 | 49.00 | 50.30 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 49.50 | 50.10 | 50.00 | | 20251114 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 202511 ...

姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 2 日 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 甲醇 期货研究报告 | 专题报告 2025 年 12 月 2 日 甲醇 专业研究·创造价值 供应收缩周期到来 甲醇估值迎来修复 核心观点 甲醇：在全球甲醇贸易版图中，伊朗占据着不可替代的核心地位。作 为全球第二大甲醇生产国，伊朗甲醇总产能约 1715 万吨/年，占全球总产能 的 10%左右，且 90%以上的产量用于出口，其中大部分流向中国市场，月均 对华出口量达 70-80 万吨，是中国甲醇进口的第一大来源国。伊朗甲醇产业 的核心竞争优势源于其丰富且廉价的天然气资源——国内天然气占基础燃料 能源比重达 70%，甲醇生产中天然气制路线占比超 90%，低廉的原料成本使 其在国际市场长期保持价格竞争力。 甲醇-MA 宝城期货研究所 期货研究报告 本轮国内甲醇期货价格上 ...