1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic coal price started to stabilize and decline in late November after the replenishment demand of terminal enterprises was fulfilled. The year - end production of thermal coal is expected to maintain a negative growth pattern, while the demand will seasonally strengthen in December. Overall, the supply - demand of thermal coal will be balanced in December, and the price of 5500K coal is expected to oscillate strongly above 800 yuan, supported by the replenishment demand of downstream terminals in the peak season [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Market Analysis of Thermal Coal - **Supply**: The production bases in November and December 2024 were relatively high. The weekly production data of thermal coal from the first two weeks of November did not improve significantly compared to October, and the year - end production is expected to maintain negative growth [5] - **Demand**: As December approaches, the southern regions of China will enter the peak winter heating season, which will drive up the coal consumption of coastal power plants and support the coal price [5] - **Price Forecast**: In December, the supply - demand of thermal coal is expected to be balanced, with a year - on - year decline in production, stable imports, and seasonally strengthening demand. The price of 5500K coal is expected to oscillate strongly above 800 yuan [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 4 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 核心逻辑：近期豆类市场呈现近弱远强的分化走势，资金继续向远期 2605 合约移仓。美豆期价受中 国采购预期支撑高位运行，但巴西大豆创纪录的丰产预期及美豆较巴西大豆的升水限制了上行空间。 国内豆粕高库存与油厂高压榨量对价格形成压制，而下游生猪养殖存栏高位支撑饲料需求，使得市场 在"弱现实"与"强预期"间反复博弈。短期豆粕 2605 合约仍将维持区间内震荡偏弱运行，需关注 南美天气变化及中国采购美豆的实际进展。 时间周期说 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 12 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局偏弱，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗持续下行，且盈利状况不佳，需求延续弱势 局面。与此同时，国内港口到货虽有所回落，但海外矿商发运环比增加，且两者仍处年内高位，海外 矿石供应表现积极，而内矿供应相对平稳，铁矿石供应维持高位。总之，短期利多发酵支撑矿价重回 高位，但铁矿石需求弱势运行，而供应维持高位，矿市基本面表现偏弱，高估值矿价继续承压，上行 驱动不强，多空因素博弈下矿价延续高位震荡运行态势，关注钢材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Rubber - On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The intraday price center slightly moved down to around 15,210 yuan/ton, closing down 0.46% to 15,210 yuan/ton. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread widened to 20 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices remain volatile within a range [6]. Methanol - On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The price reached a maximum of 2,140 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,115 yuan/ton, closing down 0.79% to 2,128 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread converged to 86 yuan/ton. As the supply - demand outlook for methanol shows an improving trend, methanol futures prices are expected to see a valuation repair in the future [7]. Crude Oil - On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The price rose to a maximum of 452.8 yuan/barrel and fell to a minimum of 444.6 yuan/barrel, closing down 1.15% to 448.1 yuan/barrel. The oversupply situation is pitted against the seasonal recovery in demand. Coupled with the weakening of macro - sentiment and the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium of crude oil is weakening [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 481,600 tons, an increase of 12,700 tons or 2.71% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 72,400 tons with a growth rate of 0.69%, and the general trade inventory was 409,200 tons with a growth rate of 3.07%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 6.55 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.43 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.23 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.66 percentage points [10]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points week - on - week and 10.40 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points week - on - week but an increase of 1.56 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased this week due to maintenance in some semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises, mainly because of insufficient orders, slow shipments, and equipment upgrades in some sample enterprises. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will recover next week, but the overall demand growth is limited, and production control by enterprises will restrict the increase in capacity utilization [11]. - In November 2025, China's auto dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year - on - year and 3.0 percentage points month - on - month. The inventory warning index is above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the auto circulation industry [11]. - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a decrease of about 6% from October this year but a significant increase of about 46% from 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. As of now, the heavy - truck market has achieved eight consecutive months of growth from April to November, with an average growth rate of up to 42%. Cumulatively, from January to November this year, the total sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [12]. Methanol - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 83.77%, a slight decrease of 0.17% week - on - week, a small increase of 1.06% month - on - month, and a small increase of 4.08% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0142 million tons, a small increase of 38,100 tons week - on - week, a small increase of 70,700 tons month - on - month, and a significant increase of 134,000 tons compared with 1.8802 million tons in the same period last year [13]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.28%, a slight increase of 0.05% week - on - week. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 5.31%, a slight decrease of 0.96% week - on - week. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 66.53%, a small increase of 2.89% week - on - week. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.91%, a small increase of 0.01% week - on - week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.67%, a slight increase of 0.85 percentage points week - on - week but a small decrease of 3.78% month - on - month. As of November 21, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was 316 yuan/ton, a slight recovery of 7 yuan/ton week - on - week and a significant rebound of 537 yuan/ton month - on - month [13]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the methanol inventory at ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.2439 million tons, a small decrease of 35,100 tons week - on - week, a small decrease of 25,900 tons month - on - month, but a significant increase of 184,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of November 27, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 373,700 tons, a small increase of 15,000 tons week - on - week, a small increase of 13,300 tons month - on - month, and a slight increase of 4,500 tons compared with 369,200 tons in the same period last year [14]. Crude Oil - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 419, a small increase of 2 rigs week - on - week but a decrease of 60 rigs compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.814 million barrels, a small decrease of 20,000 barrels per day week - on - week but a significant increase of 321,000 barrels per day year - on - year, remaining at a historical high [14]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 426.9 million barrels, a significant increase of 2.774 million barrels week - on - week but a significant decrease of 1.519 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 21.753 million barrels, a small decrease of 68,000 barrels week - on - week. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 411 million barrels, a small increase of 498,000 barrels week - on - week. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 92.3%, a small increase of 2.3 percentage points week - on - week, a small recovery of 5.7 percentage points month - on - month, and a small increase of 1.8 percentage points year - on - year [15]. - As of October 14, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 60,991 contracts, a significant decrease of 13,318 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 36,857 contracts or 37.67% compared with the average in September. As of November 25, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 125,587 contracts, a significant decrease of 52,240 contracts week - on - week but a significant increase of 6,176 contracts or 5.17% compared with the average in October [15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,850 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,210 yuan/ton | -150 yuan/ton | -360 yuan/ton | +150 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,135 yuan/ton | -5 yuan/ton | 2,128 yuan/ton | -4 yuan/ton | +7 yuan/ton | -1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 417.1 yuan/barrel | -0.2 yuan/barrel | 448.1 yuan/barrel | -5.7 yuan/barrel | -31.0 yuan/barrel | +5.5 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to rubber (including rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend), methanol (including methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting), and crude oil (including crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change) [17][30][43].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report, taking CSI 1000 index options as an example, analyzes the suitability of option spread strategies in a market scenario where the market is expected to rise in the medium to long - term and fluctuate within a range in the short - term. It introduces various option spread strategies, including vertical spread, ratio spread, horizontal spread, diagonal spread, and butterfly spread, and studies their application scenarios through historical data backtesting [3][52]. Summary by Directory 1. Option Portfolio Strategy Construction Ideas - **Non - linear Profit and Loss Structure of Options**: Options have a non - linear profit and loss structure, which provides diverse strategy choices for investors. When constructing option portfolio strategies, multi - dimensional factors such as option position PCR, implied volatility, and the direction of the underlying index should be comprehensively considered [8]. - **Option Position PCR**: As of November 28, the position PCR of CSI 1000 index options was 97.48%, at the 84.9% quantile level since 2023. The decline in position PCR since mid - November indicates a weakening of market sentiment, and the market sentiment remains unclear as the position PCR has not risen above 100% [9]. - **Implied Volatility**: As of November 28, the at - the - money implied volatility of CSI 1000 index options was 17.32%, at the 33.7% quantile level since 2023. Since the implied volatility is at a low level, there is limited room for further decline. When constructing option portfolio strategies, investors should consider holding a positive vega risk exposure [11]. - **Index Fundamental Analysis**: Policy stability of macro - demand, policy support for technological innovation, and continuous inflow of funds into the stock market form the core logic for the medium - to - long - term upward movement of the index. However, due to the risk of the AI asset investment bubble overseas and the increase in the willingness of funds to take short - term profits, the index may fluctuate within a range in the short - term [15]. 2. Introduction to Option Spread Strategies - **Vertical Spread**: It can be divided into bull spread and bear spread. Bull spread is suitable for a moderately bullish market, and bear spread is suitable for a moderately bearish market. This strategy can reduce the cost of premiums and control potential large losses [26][27]. - **Ratio Spread**: It is an asymmetric spread strategy, including bullish ratio spread and bearish ratio spread. It is suitable for investors with specific expectations for market direction or volatility, with the core logic of using option premium income and time - value decay characteristics to pursue profits while controlling risks [30]. - **Horizontal Spread**: Also known as calendar spread, it takes advantage of the asymmetry of time - value decay. It is suitable for a market environment of "price consolidation + rising volatility" and is a time - arbitrage tool in a neutral market [35]. - **Diagonal Spread**: It combines the characteristics of vertical spread and horizontal spread, aiming to profit from the difference in time - value decay and price fluctuations. It can be constructed using call or put options and is suitable for investors with a clear directional judgment on the market but who also want to control risks [37]. - **Butterfly Spread**: A three - leg combination suitable for a range - bound market. It allows investors to lock in a price range and profit when the price of the underlying asset fluctuates within a narrow range, with strictly limited risks [39]. 3. Empirical Comparison of Option Spread Strategies - For the CSI 1000 index in the range of 7000 - 7600, different spread strategies can be selected to control the risk exposure of "bottom - fishing". Through backtesting, the overall performance ranking of strategies is ratio spread > butterfly spread > bull put spread > bull call spread > horizontal spread > diagonal spread, with the diagonal spread being the only losing strategy [45][47]. - The returns of vertical spread strategies are mainly affected by delta, while those of horizontal spread strategies are mainly affected by vega and theta. During the index's rebound, vertical spread strategies perform well, while during the index's decline, horizontal spread strategies may stop losses and repair, and the butterfly spread strategy maintains a relatively stable growth [50][51]. 4. Summary The report concludes that option spread strategies are suitable for a market scenario where the market is expected to rise in the medium to long - term and fluctuate within a range in the short - term. Different strategies have different profit and loss characteristics and application scenarios. For different Delta, theta, and vega scenarios, the optimal spread strategies also vary [52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On December 3rd, the coke main contract closed at 1,624.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.40%. The spot price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke decreased week - on - week, while that of Qingdao Port remained flat. Coke production increased, but steel mill demand was under pressure due to reduced iron water output and low profitability. In December, there is still uncertainty in coking coal supply, and there is resistance to further decline in coke futures [6][38]. - On December 3rd, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,070.5 points, with an intraday decline of 2.19%. The spot price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port decreased week - on - week. The supply side is the core factor affecting the market. Recent policies and stable production have weakened the supply - side support for coal prices, but considering the December Politburo economic meeting and year - end coal mine production reduction expectations, there is resistance to further decline in coking coal futures [7][39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation released that the China Logistics Prosperity Index in November was 50.9%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The central and western regions had higher business volume indices than the national average, and the fixed - asset investment completion index remained in a high - prosperity range [9]. - On December 3rd, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market dropped by 80 yuan/ton, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking coal being 1,500 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Spot Market - The table shows the price changes of coke and coking coal in different markets (Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Ganqimaodu Port, Jingtang Port, etc.) on a weekly, monthly, annual, and year - on - year basis. For example, the quasi - first - grade coke price at Rizhao Port decreased by 2.99% week - on - week, and the Mongolian coal price at Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 6.25% week - on - week [11]. 3.3 Futures Market - The table presents the trading information of coke and coking coal main contracts, including closing price, price change, highest price, lowest price, trading volume, volume difference, open interest, and open interest difference. The coke main contract had an intraday increase of 0.40%, while the coking coal main contract had an intraday decline of 2.19% [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - There are multiple charts showing the inventory of coke (230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, ports, etc.) and coking coal (mine mouth, ports, 247 sample steel mills, etc.), as well as other related production and market data such as steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [15][20][21]. 3.5后市研判 - The analysis of coke and coking coal is consistent with the core views, emphasizing the current market situation, price trends, supply - demand relationships, and future focus on coal mine production [38][39].

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Futures Research Report - Non-ferrous Metals Daily Report - **Report Date**: December 3, 2025 - **Author**: Long Aoming 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Macro Level**: The expectation of interest rate cuts is rising, which is beneficial for non-ferrous metals. The probability of an interest rate cut in December is close to 90%, and the US dollar index is continuously weakening, approaching the 99 mark [6][7][8]. - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices rose and then fell, and today they maintained a slightly stronger oscillation with a narrowing amplitude. The trading volume of Shanghai copper continued to increase. Domestically, the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased, the downstream acceptance increased, and the spot premium strengthened. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 90,000 mark [6]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly, with the trading volume continuing to increase, and approaching the 22,000 mark at the end of the session. The inventories of electrolytic aluminum at home and abroad remained stable at a low level. As the aluminum price rose, downstream buyers were hesitant due to high prices and made purchases as needed, and the spot discount remained weak. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 22,000 mark [7]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, Shanghai nickel decreased in volume, and today it rebounded with a decrease in volume, showing a V-shaped trend as a whole. The spot premium continued to strengthen, providing support for the futures price. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 120,000 mark [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: The copper market is facing a supply shortage, and the gap may reach 30% by 2035. The expected supply shortage is due to factors such as declining ore grades, rising capital costs, and long project development cycles [10]. - **Nickel**: On December 3, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 117,300 - 122,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 120,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 4,700 - 5,000 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper inventory and cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][13][16][20][21]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, Shanghai-London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [25][27][29][31][33][35]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41][43][45][47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a 0% daily increase, and the shift of positions was completed. With an upcoming major meeting, optimistic expectations provided support for steel prices. However, the fundamentals of rebar did not improve under the situation of weak supply and demand. Steel prices were prone to pressure in the off - season. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated with a 0.18% daily decline, and the shift of positions was almost completed. Benefiting from the warming market sentiment, the futures price of hot - rolled coil rose oscillatingly. However, the supply pressure remained, demand weakened, the fundamentals did not improve, and the upward driving force was not strong. It is expected that the trend will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated with a 0.19% daily decline. Short - term positive factors supported the ore price to return to a high level. However, the demand for iron ore continued to decline while the supply remained high. The fundamentals of the ore market were weak, and the upward driving force was not strong. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - The OECD predicted that the global economic growth rates for this year and next year would be 3.2% and 2.9% respectively. The US economic growth rate would decline from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2025 and further to 1.7% in 2026. The eurozone economy was expected to grow by 1.3% and 1.2% in 2025 and 2026 respectively. The impact of US tariffs on the global economy was becoming more apparent [7]. - As of December 3, among 14 car companies that released their new - energy vehicle sales data for November 2025, BYD, SAIC Group, and Geely Auto ranked in the top three in terms of monthly sales, with 480,200, 209,400, and 187,800 vehicles respectively. 11 car companies achieved year - on - year growth, and 11 also achieved month - on - month growth [8]. - On December 3, the first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project, carrying 200,000 tons of high - grade iron ore, set sail for China. The project would gradually reach a total production capacity of 120 million tons per year [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,270, 3,220, and 3,331 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,310, 3,240, and 3,333 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,990, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,080. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 40, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,190 [10]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 797, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 803. The sea freight from Australia was 12.24, and from Brazil was 25.30. The SGX swap price was 107.40, and the Platts index was 107.80 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,169 with a 0.00% change, the highest price was 3,174, the lowest was 3,154, the trading volume was 750,667, the volume difference was 246,495, the open interest was 1,297,106, and the open - interest difference was 516,952 [12]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,319 with a - 0.18% change, the highest price was 3,329, the lowest was 3,311, the trading volume was 234,619, the volume difference was - 14,970, the open interest was 542,502, and the open - interest difference was - 87,895 [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 799.5 with a - 0.19% change, the highest price was 803.5, the lowest was 794.0, the trading volume was 169,490, the volume difference was 25,635, the open interest was 334,841, and the open - interest difference was - 23,770 [12]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report presented various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, total rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories (steel mills + social inventory), national 45 - port iron ore inventories, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventories, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventories [14][19][21]. - Charts about steel mill production were also included, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit - loss situation of 75 building materials independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29][32]. 3.5 Market Outlook - For rebar, supply and demand weakened. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 18,800 tons, but the profit of short - process steel mills improved. Demand also weakened, with weekly apparent demand slightly decreasing. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [38]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern was weak, and inventory reduction was limited. The weekly output increased by 30,000 tons, and the inventory level was high. Demand weakened, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 42,000 tons. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [38]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern remained weak. The terminal consumption of ore continued to decline, and the profitability of steel mills did not improve. Domestic port arrivals decreased, while overseas shipments increased. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [39].

Group 1: Core View - Manganese silicon prices rebounded from a low level due to improved market sentiment, but the supply contraction at a high level is limited while the demand continues to weaken. The supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve, the industrial contradictions accumulate, and the fundamental weakness remains unchanged. The upward driving force of manganese silicon prices is not strong, and once the market logic returns to the industrial side, the prices will be under pressure again. A breakthrough requires the introduction of industrial clearance policies [5][58] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Price Movement - Since December, the futures and spot prices of manganese silicon have rebounded from a low level, especially the futures price. As of December 3, the futures price of the main manganese silicon contract reached a maximum of 5,786 yuan/ton, up nearly 200 yuan from the previous low. The spot price also increased, with a range of 20 - 90 yuan in the mainstream areas, and the basis weakened again [9] - The recent rapid rise in manganese silicon prices is a catch - up increase, mainly due to the low - level rebound of steel futures prices boosting the sentiment in the ferrous metal market. Since mid - November, the rebar futures price has been rising, and the 2601 contract has been relatively strong, with a cumulative increase of over 130 yuan from the low level [12] Group 3: Supply Situation - Manganese silicon production decreased in November 2025. The output was 848,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 66,900 tons or 7.31%, but still higher than the same period last year. Most regions saw a decline in production, with Yunnan having the largest reduction [17] - As of the week of November 28, the operating rate of 187 independent manganese silicon enterprises was 38.09%, and the daily output was 27,825 tons, down 4.90% and 1,850 tons respectively from the end of last month. Although the operating rate is significantly lower than last year, the output is similar to the same period last year [19] - The factory inventory of manganese silicon has been rising at a high level. As of the week of November 28, the total factory inventory was 368,000 tons, an increase of 53,500 tons from the end of last month, hitting a new high. All regions saw inventory accumulation, with the main production areas having the largest increase [27] - In 2025, the planned production projects of manganese silicon totaled more than 3.5 million tons. After removing the replacement capacity, the actual new capacity was as high as 6.665 million tons, and the oversupply pattern remained unchanged [33] Group 4: Demand Situation - Steel mill production weakened, and the demand for manganese silicon decreased. The blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills were 81.09% and 87.98% respectively, down 0.66% and 0.63% from the end of last month. The output of the five major steel products decreased by 2.24%, and the demand for manganese silicon decreased by 2.22% [36] - The profitability of steel mills continued to deteriorate. As of the week of November 28, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 sample steel mills was 35.06%, a continuous decline since mid - August. The demand for raw materials such as manganese silicon was affected [37] - Steel mills' willingness to replenish inventory actively at the end of the year was not strong. The number of days of available manganese silicon inventory in November was 15.84 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.14 days. Most regions' inventory levels were higher than the same period last year [43] Group 5: Cost Situation - Due to the weak downward trend of manganese silicon prices, the losses of production enterprises increased. As of December 2, the production costs of manganese silicon in the northern and southern regions were 5,838 yuan/ton and 6,208 yuan/ton respectively. The losses per ton in the northern and southern regions were 312 yuan and 678 yuan respectively [46] - The cost support effect is weakening. Coke prices have increased, while port manganese ore prices have been stable. If production enterprises reduce production, the prices of related raw materials will be affected, and the cost will decline, which may drag down the manganese silicon price [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is weakening. The futures market shows a downward trend, while the spot market has an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. The supply expectation is strengthening [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Summary of the Abstract - The closing price of the main futures contract LC2605.GFE was 93,660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,900 yuan/ton (-3.00%) from the previous day, showing a downward trend in the past 10 trading days [5]. - The spot price of lithium carbonate was 94,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [5]. - The current basis was -610 points, indicating a negative basis (spot discount), strengthening by 1,310 points from the previous day, and overall strengthening in the past 10 trading days [5]. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of lithium carbonate was 9,652 lots, an increase of 660 lots (+7.34%) from the previous day, showing an overall decrease in the past 10 trading days [5]. - The supply expectation is strengthening [5]. 3.2 Summary of the Industry Dynamics - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main futures contract was 93,660 yuan/ton, down 2,900 yuan/ton from the previous day and 2,680 yuan/ton from the previous week. The settlement price was 94,900 yuan/ton, down 1,480 yuan/ton from the previous day and 2,560 yuan/ton from the previous week [7]. - **Lithium Concentrate**: Australian CIF6 China lithium concentrate was priced at 1,190 - 1,230 US dollars/ton, with a price change of 0 - 10 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day and 10 - 10 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. Brazilian CIF6 China lithium concentrate was priced at 1,170 - 1,210 US dollars/ton, with a price change of -10 - 10 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day and 10 - 10 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. Zimbabwe CIF6 China lithium concentrate was priced at 1,160 - 1,190 US dollars/ton, with a price change of 0 - 10 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day and 10 - 10 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. Malian CIF6 China lithium concentrate was priced at 880 - 940 US dollars/ton, with no price change compared to the previous day and a change of 30 - 30 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week [7]. - **Lithium Mica**: The average price of lithium mica in the Chinese market varied depending on the Li2O content, with no price change for most grades compared to the previous day and different increases compared to the previous week [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric lithium carbonate was 94,290 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 1,470 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide was 82,620 yuan/ton, with no price change from the previous day and an increase of 1,270 yuan/ton from the previous week [7]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of some downstream products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and electrolyte showed different trends, with some remaining stable and some having small price changes [7]. 3.3 Summary of the Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: The charts show the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium carbonate spot, lithium hydroxide, basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate [9]. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: The charts present the price changes of manganese - acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [11][12][14]. - **Trading Volume, Open Interest, and Warehouse Receipts**: The charts display the changes in the trading volume, open interest of the main lithium carbonate futures contract, and the registered warehouse receipt volume of lithium carbonate [16][17].