Bao Cheng Qi Huo
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宝城期货橡胶早报-20250820
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 02:17
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures market and synthetic rubber futures market are dominated by supply and demand fundamentals, and both are expected to run weakly. The 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures and the 2510 contract of synthetic rubber futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend on Wednesday [5][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Short - term: Volatile; Medium - term: Volatile; Intraday: Volatile and weak; Reference view: Weak operation [1] - Core logic: Currently, the Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also continuously releasing new rubber output, with high supply pressure. At the same time, the inventory of the domestic tire industry has declined, the operating load has decreased, and export sales have been blocked with a slowdown in growth. On Tuesday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a weak downward trend, with the futures price dropping 2.27% to 15,520 yuan/ton [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Short - term: Volatile; Medium - term: Volatile; Intraday: Volatile and weak; Reference view: Weak operation [1] - Core logic: Currently, the operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, and the supply pressure has increased slightly. The inventory of the domestic tire industry has declined, the operating load has decreased, and export sales have been blocked with a slowdown in growth. On Tuesday night, the 2510 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures showed a weak downward trend, with the futures price dropping 3.92% to 11,400 yuan/ton [7]
宝城期货资讯早班车-20250820
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 02:16
1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7% [1] - The manufacturing PMI in July 2025 was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month and slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI business activity index in July 2025 was 50.1%, slightly down from 50.5% in the previous month but similar to the same period last year [1] - Social financing scale increment in July 2025 was not provided, with the previous month at 1132 billion yuan and the same period last year at 770.7 billion yuan [1] - The year-on-year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 in July 2025 were 11.8%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively. M1 and M2 growth rates increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - Financial institution RMB loans had a net decrease of 5 billion yuan in July 2025, compared to an increase of 224 billion yuan in the previous month and 26 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - CPI in July 2025 was flat year-on-year, down from 0.1% in the previous month and 0.5% in the same period last year [1] - PPI in July 2025 was -3.6% year-on-year, the same as the previous month but lower than -0.8% in the same period last year [1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) cumulative growth rate in July 2025 was 1.6% year-on-year, down from 2.8% in the previous month and 3.6% in the same period last year [1] - The cumulative growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in July 2025 was 4.8% year-on-year, slightly down from 5.0% in the previous month but higher than 3.5% in the same period last year [1] - Export and import values in July 2025 increased by 7.2% and 4.1% year-on-year respectively, both higher than the previous month [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - From January to July 2025, stamp duty was 255.9 billion yuan, a 20.7% year-on-year increase. Securities trading stamp duty was 93.6 billion yuan, a 62.5% increase. In July alone, it was 15.1 billion yuan, a 125% increase from July 2024 [2] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is promoting the research and development of innovative products like the BPI index futures and the opening up of polyester sector products [2] - Futures prices of many products such as cotton and urea have become important references for national macro - policy making. Many enterprises in different industries use the futures market to manage risks [2] - China's futures market has improved its internationalization level. As of July 2025, there were 24 specific open - ended futures varieties, and some futures companies have achieved 100% foreign ownership [3] - The London Metal Exchange's Hong Kong delivery warehouse was inaugurated, which is significant for Hong Kong's development as an international financial center and for promoting RMB use in commodity trading [3][4] Metals - The Chinese Foreign Ministry was unaware of reports about lifting rare - earth export controls to India [5] - Gold has had low volatility since June 2025. Global gold ETFs added 397 tons in the first half of the year. Gold prices may be supported by an over 80% probability of a September interest - rate cut [5] - The world's largest silver ETF reduced its holdings by 16.95 tons [5] - The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate [5] - UBS expects global gold demand to reach a new high since 2011 and forecasts gold prices to reach $3600 by the end of March 2026 and $3700 by the end of June and September 2026 [6] - On August 18, lead inventory reached a new high in over a month, while zinc, tin, nickel, copper, and aluminum inventories decreased [6] Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Shandong plans to raise coke prices, with different increases for different types of coke starting from August 19 [8] - Mexico proposes to restore the North American Steel Committee to improve trade relations with the US and reduce Asian steel imports [8] Energy and Chemicals - On August 19, US crude oil futures fell 1.12%. The decline was affected by the expected US - Russia - Ukraine talks, weak demand from India, and increasing supply pressure [9] - Six government departments held a photovoltaic industry symposium to regulate the industry's competition order [9] - US API crude oil inventory decreased by 24.17 million barrels in the week ending August 15 [9][10] - India's imports of Russian crude oil decreased in July, and state - owned refineries will seek alternative sources in August and September [10] Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized efforts to ensure a good autumn harvest, regulate the agricultural product market, promote farmers' income, and prevent risks [12] - The Ministry of Agriculture organized a meeting on preventing and controlling major pests and diseases in autumn crops [12] - New York Arabica coffee futures reached a two - month high due to concerns about Brazil's coffee production [12] - US exporters sold 228,606 tons of soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [13] - Corn yields in Nebraska, US, are expected to be lower than in 2024 [14] - Indonesia opened its market to Brazilian beef and offal [14] - India will exempt cotton import tariffs from August 19 to September 30 [14] 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On August 19, the central bank conducted 580.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan after 114.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [15] Key News - In July 2025, national general public budget revenue increased by 2.6% year - on - year. The cumulative revenue in the first seven months increased by 0.1% year - on - year [16] - Government - funded budget expenditures increased by 31.7% in the first seven months due to the expenditure of 2.89 trillion yuan from special bonds and special treasury bonds [16] - Some provinces' audit reports pointed out problems in the use and management of special bonds, including data inaccuracies, project delays, and misappropriation [17] - From September 1, three new conditions for withdrawing personal pensions were added [17] - The central bank increased the re - loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 100 billion yuan to support disaster - affected areas [18] - Guangdong plans to issue 2.5 billion yuan of offshore RMB local government bonds in Macau in late August [19] - The second batch of science and technology innovation bond ETFs is about to be submitted, with 14 fund companies involved [19] - There were uncertainties in the principal and interest payment of some bonds, and some companies faced major events such as being presented with a winding - up petition [19] - International credit rating agencies made ratings and outlook adjustments for some countries and companies [19] Bond Market Summary - Bond prices stabilized due to the stock market decline and the central bank's reverse repurchase operations. Most yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds decreased, and treasury bond futures rose [20] - In the exchange - traded bond market, some bonds rose while others fell [20] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.16%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 0.37% [20][21] - Most money - market interest rates increased on August 19 [21] - Shibor short - term rates mostly increased [21] - The winning yields of some agricultural and national development bank financial bonds were announced, along with their subscription multiples [22] - Most inter - bank and silver - bank repurchase fixed - rate bonds increased [22] - Most European and US bond yields decreased [23] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1820 on August 20, down 28 points from the previous day. The central parity rate was 7.1359, down 37 points [25] - The US dollar index rose 0.12% in New York trading, and most non - US currencies fell [25] Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Fixed Income believes that from May, the bond market has been driven by asset allocation. In August - October, the bond market may face pressure from capital diversion and crowded trading structures [26] - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that the bond market should focus on defense. Insurance funds may start to accept 10 - year treasury bonds at a yield of 1.8%, while trading funds should wait for opportunities [26] - Yangtze River Fixed Income expects that the central bank's mention of preventing capital idling will not lead to a tightening of the capital market. Liquidity will remain reasonably abundant [26] - CITIC Securities reports that the bank wealth - management scale exceeded 32.67 trillion yuan in late July, and it is expected to reach over 33.5 trillion yuan this year [27] - Shenwan Fixed Income expects local bond issuance and net financing to increase significantly in the next period [27][28] - Xingzheng Fixed Income points out that bond ETFs may face redemption and selling pressure during market adjustments. Investors can choose more resilient ETFs and take advantage of price discounts [28] - Yangtze River Fixed Income believes that the central bank may restart open - market treasury bond trading in the fourth quarter when the 10 - year treasury bond yield is in a certain range [28] - CICC Research Report states that the market's pricing of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased, but the Fed will be cautious due to the risk of "stagflation - like" conditions [29] Today's Bond Market Reminders - On August 20, 142 bonds were listed, 171 bonds were issued, 117 bonds were due for payment, and 112 bonds were due for principal and interest repayment [30][31] 4. Stock Market News - On August 20, the A - share market had a narrow - range shock, with the three major indices falling and the North Exchange 50 hitting a new high. Consumer electronics, CPO, and liquor sectors led the gains [32] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.21%. Oriental甄选's stock price fluctuated greatly. South - bound funds had a large net purchase [32] - Brokers are competing for customers by offering low commission rates [32] - As of August 18, the margin trading balance exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, reaching a 10 - year high [33] - Foreign institutions are increasing their positions in Chinese stocks. Many foreign institutions are optimistic about the Chinese stock market [34] - As of August 19, social security funds appeared in the top ten tradable shareholders of 89 stocks, with 20 new heavy - position stocks [34] - As of August 19, 666 A - share companies released their semi - annual reports, and over 60% achieved year - on - year profit growth [34]
宝城期货:动静结合
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 02:13
Report Core View - The "Immovable as a Mountain" concept from "The Art of War" provides guidance for futures traders, suggesting they should combine stillness and movement, and maintain a balance in trading [2][3] - Traders should not be swayed by short - term market fluctuations, but adhere to trading strategies based on in - depth market analysis and clear trading plans [2] - Traders need to rest appropriately, avoid over - trading and emotional operations, and find a balance in trading [3] - The concept also emphasizes risk control, including setting reasonable stop - loss and take - profit points, and strengthening fund management [3] - The example of the Battle of Changping warns against hasty decisions and over - trading, highlighting the importance of strategic stability and flexibility [2][3] Historical Event Analysis - In the Battle of Changping, General Lian Po of the Zhao State adopted a strategy of坚守不出 and waiting for the right opportunity, but King Zhao was deceived by the Qin State's counter - espionage and replaced Lian Po with Zhao Kuo [2] - Zhao Kuo was eager for victory and launched an offensive. Qin's famous general Bai Qi lured the Zhao army deep and cut off their retreat and supply lines, resulting in a major defeat for the Zhao army [2]
宝城期货甲醇早报-20250820
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 02:12
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to show a weakening trend. In the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, it will be in a state of shock, with an intraday weakening shock. The core reason is that the coal price is weakening, and the methanol supply - demand structure is weak [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is shock and weakening, and the reference view is weakening operation. The core logic is that the coal price is weakening, causing the methanol to shock and weaken [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - The intraday view of methanol is shock and weakening, and the medium - term view is shock. The reference view is weakening operation. As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the supply pressure of domestic and foreign methanol is still high, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift. Although the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract had an oversold rebound on Tuesday night, with the price rising slightly by 0.50% to 2398 yuan/ton, it lacks the power to continue rising. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract will maintain a shock and weakening trend on Wednesday [5].
宝城期货原油早报-20250820
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 02:12
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of crude oil 2510 is weak, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is oscillating and weak, and it is expected to run weakly with a dominant bearish atmosphere [1] - For crude oil (SC), the intraday view is oscillating and strong, the medium - term view is oscillating, and it is expected to run strongly. However, considering the supply - demand situation, it is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract may maintain an oscillating and weak trend on Wednesday [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Crude Oil 2510 - Short - term: Oscillating and weak [1] - Medium - term: Oscillating [1] - Intraday: Oscillating and weak [1] - View reference: Weak operation [1] - Core logic: The bearish atmosphere is dominant [1] Crude Oil (SC) - Intraday view: Oscillating and strong [5] - Medium - term view: Oscillating [5] - View reference: Strong operation [5] - Core logic: The IEA reports that due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, with OPEC + increasing production, the global crude oil market will face a record supply glut next year. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. Crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. As the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to end, the geopolitical premium will be reversed. After the previous bearish sentiment was released, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract maintained an oscillating and weak trend on Tuesday night, with the futures price slightly down 0.87% to 480.9 yuan/barrel [5]
宝城期货品种套利数据日报-20250820
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 01:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on August 20, 2025, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][21][27][39][50] 3. Summary by Category Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From August 13 to August 19, 2025, the basis of power coal was - 108.4, - 106.4, - 103.4, - 100.4, - 99.4 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0.0 yuan/ton [2] Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - **Basis and Ratio Data**: For fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, data such as basis and ratio from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on August 19 was - 1.87 yuan/ton [7] Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: For rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP, basis data from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on August 19 was - 1025 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber was 80 yuan/ton [11] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on August 19 was 2301 yuan/ton [11] Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: For rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, the 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month inter - period spreads are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar was 49.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The ratios of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and the spread of rebar - hot rolled coil from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are given. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on August 19 was 4.08 [20] - **Basis Data**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on August 19 was 144.0 yuan/ton [21] Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: For copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin, the basis data from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of copper on August 19 was 170 yuan/ton [28] London Market - **LME Data**: Data such as LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on August 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was (96.85) [35] Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: For soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn, the basis data from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on August 19 was - 6 yuan/ton [39] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 was 42 yuan/ton [39] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The ratios of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, and the spreads of soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the ratio of soybeans No.1/corn on August 19 was 1.86 [39] Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: For CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, the basis data from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on August 19 was 7.17 [51] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 42.6 [53]
宝城期货国债期货早报-20250820
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 01:50
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term view of treasury bond futures is weak - side oscillation, and the medium - term view is oscillation. The overall view is oscillation. The reason is that the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased, and the risk appetite of the stock market has risen [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are oscillation, and the intraday view is weak - side oscillation. The core logic is that the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased, and the risk appetite of the stock market has risen [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is weak - side oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures rebounded slightly in oscillation yesterday. On one hand, future policy will focus on structural easing, and the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased. The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy implementation report emphasizes "refinement" and "structure", indicating that future monetary policy will introduce structural easing policies in areas such as inclusive small and micro financial services, financial support for scientific and technological innovation, and financial support for consumption promotion. On the other hand, the risk appetite of the stock market has been rising recently, and the money - making effect of the stock market has attracted funds into the stock market, suppressing the demand for buying treasury bonds. However, due to the continuous recovery of market interest rates, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates is gradually emerging, and the room for further increase in market interest rates is limited. In general, treasury bond futures will operate in a weak - side oscillation in the short term [5].
宝城期货股指期货早报-20250820
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 01:50
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term outlook is oscillatory, the medium - term outlook is upward, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, and the overall view is upward, supported by positive policy expectations [1]. - For the IF, IH, IC, and IM varieties, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, the medium - term view is upward. The stock market trading volume remains at a high level, and investor sentiment is positive. Although there is a need for profit - taking and technical consolidation, policy support is strong, and continuous capital inflows are beneficial for valuation repair. In the short term, the stock index is mainly oscillatory and bullish [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is upward, the intraday is oscillatory and bullish, and the overall view is upward, with the core logic being strong support from positive policy expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillatory and bullish, and the medium - term view is upward. The trading volume of the three major stock markets (Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing) was 2640.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 168.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The trading volume is still high, and investor sentiment is positive. There is a need for profit - taking and technical consolidation. Policy support is strong, and continuous capital inflows are conducive to valuation repair. In the short term, the stock index is mainly oscillatory and bullish [5].
宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250820
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 01:50
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to decline in the short term, oscillate in the medium term, and show a weak oscillation intraday, with a short - term bearish view. Copper is expected to oscillate in the short and medium terms, show a weak oscillation intraday, and the recommended approach is to wait and see [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - Short - term view: Decline; Medium - term view: Oscillation; Intraday view: Weak oscillation; Reference view: Short - term bearish. The core logic is that the improvement in the Russia - Ukraine situation and the rebound of the US dollar index put pressure on the gold price, while the callback of the Nasdaq and the Jackson Hole meeting may provide some support. Attention should be paid to the technical support at the $3300 level of London gold [1][3]. Copper - Short - term view: Oscillation; Medium - term view: Oscillation; Intraday view: Weak oscillation; Reference view: Wait and see. The core logic is that the domestic macro situation has cooled, the US - Russia relationship has improved, the US dollar index has rebounded, and the copper price may continue to be under pressure. The main contract price of Shanghai copper fell to the 78,500 level [1][4].
宝城期货煤焦早报-20250820
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 01:44
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content available Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For both Jiao Coal 2601 and Coke 2601, the short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are all "oscillation", with Jiao Coal 2601 having a short - term "interval oscillation", mid - term "oscillatory and bullish", and intraday "oscillatory and bearish", and Coke 2601 having similar characteristics [1] - The Jiao Coal market may enter a high - level oscillation pattern, with short - term adjustments possible, but the medium - to - long - term price center has an upward basis. The Coke futures price may show a characteristic of being easy to rise and hard to fall after a phased adjustment [5][6] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Jiao Coal (JM) - Intraday view: Oscillatory and bearish; Mid - term view: Oscillatory and bullish; Reference view: Oscillation [5] - On August 19, the main Jiao Coal contract closed at 1194.5 points, down 1.89% intraday. The main contract's open interest was 713,900 lots, a decrease of 2,226 lots from the previous trading day [5] - In the spot market, the latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1190.0 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week, with the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost about 1167 yuan/ton [5] - After the "anti - involution" rectification, the Jiao Coal market may gradually improve, and the oversupply situation is expected to ease [5] Coke (J) - Intraday view: Oscillatory and bearish; Mid - term view: Oscillatory and bullish; Reference view: Oscillation [6] - In the spot market, the latest quotation of the Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke flat - price index was 1520 yuan/ton, up 3.40% week - on - week; the ex - warehouse price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke was 1470 yuan/ton, down 0.68% week - on - week [6] - Since August, there have been continuous news disturbances on the supply side of Jiao Coal, the raw material of Coke. Although the actual supply of domestic Jiao Coal has not been significantly affected, market expectations have improved. The subsequent environmental protection production restrictions for the 9.3 military parade will support the fundamentals of Coke [6]