Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On December 3rd, the coke main contract closed at 1,624.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.40%. The spot price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke decreased week - on - week, while that of Qingdao Port remained flat. Coke production increased, but steel mill demand was under pressure due to reduced iron water output and low profitability. In December, there is still uncertainty in coking coal supply, and there is resistance to further decline in coke futures [6][38]. - On December 3rd, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,070.5 points, with an intraday decline of 2.19%. The spot price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port decreased week - on - week. The supply side is the core factor affecting the market. Recent policies and stable production have weakened the supply - side support for coal prices, but considering the December Politburo economic meeting and year - end coal mine production reduction expectations, there is resistance to further decline in coking coal futures [7][39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation released that the China Logistics Prosperity Index in November was 50.9%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The central and western regions had higher business volume indices than the national average, and the fixed - asset investment completion index remained in a high - prosperity range [9]. - On December 3rd, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market dropped by 80 yuan/ton, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking coal being 1,500 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Spot Market - The table shows the price changes of coke and coking coal in different markets (Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Ganqimaodu Port, Jingtang Port, etc.) on a weekly, monthly, annual, and year - on - year basis. For example, the quasi - first - grade coke price at Rizhao Port decreased by 2.99% week - on - week, and the Mongolian coal price at Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 6.25% week - on - week [11]. 3.3 Futures Market - The table presents the trading information of coke and coking coal main contracts, including closing price, price change, highest price, lowest price, trading volume, volume difference, open interest, and open interest difference. The coke main contract had an intraday increase of 0.40%, while the coking coal main contract had an intraday decline of 2.19% [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - There are multiple charts showing the inventory of coke (230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, ports, etc.) and coking coal (mine mouth, ports, 247 sample steel mills, etc.), as well as other related production and market data such as steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [15][20][21]. 3.5后市研判 - The analysis of coke and coking coal is consistent with the core views, emphasizing the current market situation, price trends, supply - demand relationships, and future focus on coal mine production [38][39].

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Futures Research Report - Non-ferrous Metals Daily Report - **Report Date**: December 3, 2025 - **Author**: Long Aoming 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Macro Level**: The expectation of interest rate cuts is rising, which is beneficial for non-ferrous metals. The probability of an interest rate cut in December is close to 90%, and the US dollar index is continuously weakening, approaching the 99 mark [6][7][8]. - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices rose and then fell, and today they maintained a slightly stronger oscillation with a narrowing amplitude. The trading volume of Shanghai copper continued to increase. Domestically, the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased, the downstream acceptance increased, and the spot premium strengthened. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 90,000 mark [6]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly, with the trading volume continuing to increase, and approaching the 22,000 mark at the end of the session. The inventories of electrolytic aluminum at home and abroad remained stable at a low level. As the aluminum price rose, downstream buyers were hesitant due to high prices and made purchases as needed, and the spot discount remained weak. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 22,000 mark [7]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, Shanghai nickel decreased in volume, and today it rebounded with a decrease in volume, showing a V-shaped trend as a whole. The spot premium continued to strengthen, providing support for the futures price. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 120,000 mark [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: The copper market is facing a supply shortage, and the gap may reach 30% by 2035. The expected supply shortage is due to factors such as declining ore grades, rising capital costs, and long project development cycles [10]. - **Nickel**: On December 3, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 117,300 - 122,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 120,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 4,700 - 5,000 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper inventory and cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][13][16][20][21]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, Shanghai-London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [25][27][29][31][33][35]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41][43][45][47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a 0% daily increase, and the shift of positions was completed. With an upcoming major meeting, optimistic expectations provided support for steel prices. However, the fundamentals of rebar did not improve under the situation of weak supply and demand. Steel prices were prone to pressure in the off - season. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated with a 0.18% daily decline, and the shift of positions was almost completed. Benefiting from the warming market sentiment, the futures price of hot - rolled coil rose oscillatingly. However, the supply pressure remained, demand weakened, the fundamentals did not improve, and the upward driving force was not strong. It is expected that the trend will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated with a 0.19% daily decline. Short - term positive factors supported the ore price to return to a high level. However, the demand for iron ore continued to decline while the supply remained high. The fundamentals of the ore market were weak, and the upward driving force was not strong. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - The OECD predicted that the global economic growth rates for this year and next year would be 3.2% and 2.9% respectively. The US economic growth rate would decline from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2025 and further to 1.7% in 2026. The eurozone economy was expected to grow by 1.3% and 1.2% in 2025 and 2026 respectively. The impact of US tariffs on the global economy was becoming more apparent [7]. - As of December 3, among 14 car companies that released their new - energy vehicle sales data for November 2025, BYD, SAIC Group, and Geely Auto ranked in the top three in terms of monthly sales, with 480,200, 209,400, and 187,800 vehicles respectively. 11 car companies achieved year - on - year growth, and 11 also achieved month - on - month growth [8]. - On December 3, the first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project, carrying 200,000 tons of high - grade iron ore, set sail for China. The project would gradually reach a total production capacity of 120 million tons per year [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,270, 3,220, and 3,331 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,310, 3,240, and 3,333 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,990, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,080. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 40, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,190 [10]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 797, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 803. The sea freight from Australia was 12.24, and from Brazil was 25.30. The SGX swap price was 107.40, and the Platts index was 107.80 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,169 with a 0.00% change, the highest price was 3,174, the lowest was 3,154, the trading volume was 750,667, the volume difference was 246,495, the open interest was 1,297,106, and the open - interest difference was 516,952 [12]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,319 with a - 0.18% change, the highest price was 3,329, the lowest was 3,311, the trading volume was 234,619, the volume difference was - 14,970, the open interest was 542,502, and the open - interest difference was - 87,895 [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 799.5 with a - 0.19% change, the highest price was 803.5, the lowest was 794.0, the trading volume was 169,490, the volume difference was 25,635, the open interest was 334,841, and the open - interest difference was - 23,770 [12]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report presented various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, total rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories (steel mills + social inventory), national 45 - port iron ore inventories, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventories, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventories [14][19][21]. - Charts about steel mill production were also included, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit - loss situation of 75 building materials independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29][32]. 3.5 Market Outlook - For rebar, supply and demand weakened. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 18,800 tons, but the profit of short - process steel mills improved. Demand also weakened, with weekly apparent demand slightly decreasing. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [38]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern was weak, and inventory reduction was limited. The weekly output increased by 30,000 tons, and the inventory level was high. Demand weakened, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 42,000 tons. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [38]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern remained weak. The terminal consumption of ore continued to decline, and the profitability of steel mills did not improve. Domestic port arrivals decreased, while overseas shipments increased. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [39].

Group 1: Core View - Manganese silicon prices rebounded from a low level due to improved market sentiment, but the supply contraction at a high level is limited while the demand continues to weaken. The supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve, the industrial contradictions accumulate, and the fundamental weakness remains unchanged. The upward driving force of manganese silicon prices is not strong, and once the market logic returns to the industrial side, the prices will be under pressure again. A breakthrough requires the introduction of industrial clearance policies [5][58] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Price Movement - Since December, the futures and spot prices of manganese silicon have rebounded from a low level, especially the futures price. As of December 3, the futures price of the main manganese silicon contract reached a maximum of 5,786 yuan/ton, up nearly 200 yuan from the previous low. The spot price also increased, with a range of 20 - 90 yuan in the mainstream areas, and the basis weakened again [9] - The recent rapid rise in manganese silicon prices is a catch - up increase, mainly due to the low - level rebound of steel futures prices boosting the sentiment in the ferrous metal market. Since mid - November, the rebar futures price has been rising, and the 2601 contract has been relatively strong, with a cumulative increase of over 130 yuan from the low level [12] Group 3: Supply Situation - Manganese silicon production decreased in November 2025. The output was 848,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 66,900 tons or 7.31%, but still higher than the same period last year. Most regions saw a decline in production, with Yunnan having the largest reduction [17] - As of the week of November 28, the operating rate of 187 independent manganese silicon enterprises was 38.09%, and the daily output was 27,825 tons, down 4.90% and 1,850 tons respectively from the end of last month. Although the operating rate is significantly lower than last year, the output is similar to the same period last year [19] - The factory inventory of manganese silicon has been rising at a high level. As of the week of November 28, the total factory inventory was 368,000 tons, an increase of 53,500 tons from the end of last month, hitting a new high. All regions saw inventory accumulation, with the main production areas having the largest increase [27] - In 2025, the planned production projects of manganese silicon totaled more than 3.5 million tons. After removing the replacement capacity, the actual new capacity was as high as 6.665 million tons, and the oversupply pattern remained unchanged [33] Group 4: Demand Situation - Steel mill production weakened, and the demand for manganese silicon decreased. The blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills were 81.09% and 87.98% respectively, down 0.66% and 0.63% from the end of last month. The output of the five major steel products decreased by 2.24%, and the demand for manganese silicon decreased by 2.22% [36] - The profitability of steel mills continued to deteriorate. As of the week of November 28, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 sample steel mills was 35.06%, a continuous decline since mid - August. The demand for raw materials such as manganese silicon was affected [37] - Steel mills' willingness to replenish inventory actively at the end of the year was not strong. The number of days of available manganese silicon inventory in November was 15.84 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.14 days. Most regions' inventory levels were higher than the same period last year [43] Group 5: Cost Situation - Due to the weak downward trend of manganese silicon prices, the losses of production enterprises increased. As of December 2, the production costs of manganese silicon in the northern and southern regions were 5,838 yuan/ton and 6,208 yuan/ton respectively. The losses per ton in the northern and southern regions were 312 yuan and 678 yuan respectively [46] - The cost support effect is weakening. Coke prices have increased, while port manganese ore prices have been stable. If production enterprises reduce production, the prices of related raw materials will be affected, and the cost will decline, which may drag down the manganese silicon price [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is weakening. The futures market shows a downward trend, while the spot market has an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. The supply expectation is strengthening [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Summary of the Abstract - The closing price of the main futures contract LC2605.GFE was 93,660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,900 yuan/ton (-3.00%) from the previous day, showing a downward trend in the past 10 trading days [5]. - The spot price of lithium carbonate was 94,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [5]. - The current basis was -610 points, indicating a negative basis (spot discount), strengthening by 1,310 points from the previous day, and overall strengthening in the past 10 trading days [5]. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of lithium carbonate was 9,652 lots, an increase of 660 lots (+7.34%) from the previous day, showing an overall decrease in the past 10 trading days [5]. - The supply expectation is strengthening [5]. 3.2 Summary of the Industry Dynamics - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main futures contract was 93,660 yuan/ton, down 2,900 yuan/ton from the previous day and 2,680 yuan/ton from the previous week. The settlement price was 94,900 yuan/ton, down 1,480 yuan/ton from the previous day and 2,560 yuan/ton from the previous week [7]. - **Lithium Concentrate**: Australian CIF6 China lithium concentrate was priced at 1,190 - 1,230 US dollars/ton, with a price change of 0 - 10 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day and 10 - 10 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. Brazilian CIF6 China lithium concentrate was priced at 1,170 - 1,210 US dollars/ton, with a price change of -10 - 10 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day and 10 - 10 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. Zimbabwe CIF6 China lithium concentrate was priced at 1,160 - 1,190 US dollars/ton, with a price change of 0 - 10 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day and 10 - 10 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. Malian CIF6 China lithium concentrate was priced at 880 - 940 US dollars/ton, with no price change compared to the previous day and a change of 30 - 30 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week [7]. - **Lithium Mica**: The average price of lithium mica in the Chinese market varied depending on the Li2O content, with no price change for most grades compared to the previous day and different increases compared to the previous week [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric lithium carbonate was 94,290 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 1,470 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide was 82,620 yuan/ton, with no price change from the previous day and an increase of 1,270 yuan/ton from the previous week [7]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of some downstream products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and electrolyte showed different trends, with some remaining stable and some having small price changes [7]. 3.3 Summary of the Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: The charts show the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium carbonate spot, lithium hydroxide, basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate [9]. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: The charts present the price changes of manganese - acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [11][12][14]. - **Trading Volume, Open Interest, and Warehouse Receipts**: The charts display the changes in the trading volume, open interest of the main lithium carbonate futures contract, and the registered warehouse receipt volume of lithium carbonate [16][17].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report believes that the steel price of rebar 2605 will show a weak and fluctuating trend in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods, and the overall view is weak and fluctuating due to the game between expectations and reality [2]. - The rebar market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, but the profit of short - process steel mills is improving, so the sustainability of production reduction is questionable. The demand is weakly stable and will seasonally decline. The approaching major meeting brings optimistic expectations, but the fundamentals have not improved, so the steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and the demand performance should be focused on [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively fluctuating, fluctuating, and weakly fluctuating, with an overall view of weak fluctuation. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, causing the steel price to fluctuate [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar have both weakened. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, but the profit of short - process steel mills is improving, and the sustainability of production reduction is uncertain. The demand is weakly stable and at a low level in the same period in recent years, and will seasonally decline. The approaching major meeting brings optimistic expectations, but the fundamentals have not improved, so the steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the expectation of interest rate cuts has declined, while the long - term expectation of a loose monetary policy remains. Overall, treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has declined, while the long - term loose expectation remains [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures fluctuated and slightly retraced. The manufacturing PMI in November showed strong resilience, so there is no strong need for a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. However, in the long run, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists. From the perspective of the monetary policy to stabilize demand, the future monetary policy environment tends to be loose, which strongly supports treasury bond futures. In general, treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both coking coal and coke, the short - term and medium - term views are “oscillation”, and the intraday view is “oscillation on the strong side”. The overall reference view is an “oscillation mindset” [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Trend and View**: The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are “oscillation”, “oscillation”, and “oscillation on the strong side” respectively, with an overall “oscillation mindset” [1][5]. - **Driving Logic**: The supply side is the core factor driving the market. The National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on energy supply during the heating season and stable domestic production and increased imports have weakened the supply - side support for coal prices. However, due to the December Politburo economic meeting and the expected year - end coal mine production cuts, there is resistance to further price drops, and the main contract has rebounded at the lower edge of the previous oscillation range [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Trend and View**: The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are “oscillation”, “oscillation”, and “oscillation on the strong side” respectively, with an overall “oscillation mindset” [1][6]. - **Driving Logic**: On December 1st, the first round of price cuts for coke was implemented. The supply is increasing, with the daily coke output increasing by 1.19 million tons to 110.08 million tons. The demand is under pressure, as the daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 million tons to 234.68 million tons, and the steel mill profitability rate dropped to 35.06%. Due to the uncertainty in coking coal supply in December, there is resistance to further price drops for coke futures, and the main contract has rebounded at the lower edge of the oscillation range [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 12 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡偏弱 | 现实格局偏弱，上行驱动不强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局变化不大，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗持续下行，且盈利状况不佳，弱势格局 难改，继续承压矿价。与此同时，国内港口到货有所回落，而海外矿商发运环比增加，两者继续位于 年内高位，海外矿石供应表现积极，而内矿供应趋稳，矿石供应维持高位。总之，短期利多因素发酵 支撑矿价重 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures are expected to run in a moderately bullish pattern on Wednesday. The market is influenced by a combination of factors, with the weakening of geopolitical premiums due to the potential cooling - off of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the improvement of demand expectations as the northern hemisphere enters the winter consumption peak season [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Time - cycle Views on Crude Oil 2601 - Short - term: The short - term view (within one week) is that the crude oil 2601 will be in a sideways pattern [1]. - Medium - term: The medium - term view (two weeks to one month) is that the crude oil 2601 will be in a sideways pattern [1]. - Intraday: The intraday view is that the crude oil 2601 will be moderately bullish [1]. 3.2. Price Movement Calculation Rules - For varieties with night trading sessions, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price, and the price change is calculated based on these [2]. 3.3. Strength Classification Rules - A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline between 0 - 1% is considered moderately weak, a rise between 0 - 1% is considered moderately strong, and a rise of more than 1% is considered strong. The moderately strong/moderately weak classification only applies to intraday views [3][4]. 3.4. Driving Logic of Crude Oil (SC) Price Movement - The potential cooling - off of the Russia - Ukraine conflict with US mediation is weakening the geopolitical premium for international oil prices, thus reducing the impetus for further price rebounds. However, the approaching winter consumption peak season in the northern hemisphere is improving the demand outlook, and the future supply - demand structure of the oil market is expected to improve. On Tuesday night, domestic crude oil futures showed a slightly bearish sideways movement with a slight decline, but are expected to continue the moderately bullish trend on Wednesday [5].