1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on the stock index futures is that they are expected to rise, with a short - term outlook of being mainly oscillating strongly and a medium - term outlook of rising. The upward drive mainly comes from the positive policy expectations in the future, and the current market sentiment is still positive and optimistic, with investors' risk appetite at a relatively high level [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is rising. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is rising, and the reference view is rising. Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and consolidated narrowly. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 176.61 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.93 billion yuan from the previous day. Resource sectors such as coal and steel led the decline because after being driven by the "anti - involution" policy, the stocks in related industries had risen considerably, and as commodity futures prices adjusted, the valuations of related stocks declined. Technically, since late June, some stocks have risen significantly, and some profit - taking funds need to take profits, so the stock index needs time to oscillate and consolidate [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soybean meal (M) futures, the intraday view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile. The uncertainty of Sino - US trade affects market sentiment and US soybean export prospects, and the weak fundamentals of domestic soybean meal remain unchanged. The futures price is more affected by market sentiment, with funds shifting positions, reduced price fluctuations, and a growing short - term wait - and - see sentiment [5]. - For the palm oil (P) futures, the intraday view is strongly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is strongly volatile. After the trade agreement between the US and the EU, international oil prices stopped falling and rebounded. Palm oil, with strong bio - energy attributes, is greatly affected by oil price fluctuations and will maintain high - level volatility in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Movement Logic**: In the short - term, the price movement is affected by import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand. In the medium - term, it is also affected by these factors. The current intraday view is weakly volatile, and the medium - term view is volatile. The reference view is weakly volatile. The core logic is that Sino - US trade uncertainty impacts market sentiment and US soybean exports, and domestic fundamentals are weak, with price fluctuations reduced due to fund position - shifting [5][7]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Price Movement Logic**: In the short - term, the price movement is affected by its bio - diesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand. In the medium - term, it is also affected by these factors. The current intraday view is strongly volatile, and the medium - term view is volatile. The reference view is strongly volatile. The core logic is that after the US - EU trade agreement, international oil prices rebounded, and palm oil, with strong bio - energy attributes, will maintain high - level volatility in the short term [7][8]. 3.3 Soybean Oil - **Price Movement Logic**: In the short - term and medium - term, the price movement is affected by US bio - fuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory. The intraday view is strongly volatile, and the reference view is strongly volatile [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 7 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 产业逻辑回归，钢价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局弱稳运行，螺纹周产量有所回升，且品种吨钢利润良好，后续仍有增量空间， 供应料将回升。与此同时，螺纹需求迎来改善，高频需求指标环比回升，多为投机需求放量所致， 持续性不强，而下游并无实质性变化，淡季需求弱势未变，继续承压钢价 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to continue the high - level oscillatory adjustment, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [2] - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term trend is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, and the intraday is strongly oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, and the intraday is strongly oscillatory. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being that the demand has good resilience and the ore price oscillates at a high level [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed. During the off - season, steel mill production is stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has slightly declined from a high level. Steel mills' profitability is good, and the demand for ore has resilience, supporting the ore price. The arrival at domestic ports has been decreasing, but the reduction space is limited. Overseas miners' shipments are increasing, and they are more active in shipping at high prices. Coupled with the recovery of domestic ore production, the supply of ore is expected to increase. The demand resilience can support the ore price, but the expected increase in supply, the changing fundamentals of the ore market, and the weakening market sentiment will lead to the high - level oscillatory adjustment of the ore price [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market atmosphere is continuously optimistic due to the resonance of favorable factors such as the peak season and the "anti - involution" news. The coal price is expected to maintain strong operation in August [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Content Market Situation - The domestic thermal coal demand has a seasonal rebound as it enters the critical period of peak - summer coal consumption. Some positive news such as "anti - involution" has fermented, spreading an optimistic market atmosphere and driving up coal prices [4]. Supply Side - As of the period ending on July 18, the daily average output of raw coal from 462 sample mines nationwide was 5.697 million tons, a slight increase of 10,300 tons per day compared to the end of June [4]. - Steel Union data shows that in the first two weeks of July, the seaborne coal arrival volume in China was 10.864 million tons, equivalent to a daily arrival of 776,000 tons, a significant improvement from 608,000 tons per day in June [4]. Demand Side - In July, the coal consumption of power plants increased seasonally. As of July 17, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 2.419 million tons, a weekly increase of 271,000 tons; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.911 million tons, a weekly increase of 360,000 tons [4]. Inventory Side - iFind data shows that as of July 24, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 27.097 million tons, a weekly increase of 112,000 tons [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view for both焦煤 and焦炭 is a decline, while the medium - term view is oscillating strongly. The reference view for both is oscillating adjustment. For焦煤, after the release of optimistic sentiment, it experiences a short - term high - level correction, but the long - term fundamentals are expected to improve. For焦炭, after a continuous rise, it has a phased correction [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1品种观点参考 - For焦煤 2509, the short - term is a decline, the medium - term is oscillating strongly, the intraday is a decline, and the reference view is oscillating adjustment due to the phased release of sentiment and subsequent callback [1]. - For焦炭 2509, the short - term is a decline, the medium - term is oscillating strongly, the intraday is a decline, and the reference view is oscillating adjustment because of the cooling of market sentiment and high - level decline [1]. 3.2主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 - **焦煤（JM）**: In July, with the release of positive news, the long - term supply - demand pattern of焦煤 has an expectation of improvement, driving the main contract up. But after the rapid price increase, the market fluctuates greatly, and the main contract has a significant callback on Friday night. The "anti - involution rectification" and "over - production rectification" are the main reasons for the rise, but the actual impact of policies needs verification. After the release of optimistic sentiment, the short - term high - level correction occurs. In the long - run, the coal price center is expected to gradually rise [5]. - **焦炭（J）**: On the night of July 28, the main contract of焦炭 continued to correct, with a 3.79% decline. After a continuous rise, it has a phased correction. As of July 25, the total daily output of independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants increased by 0.46 tons week - on - week. The profit per ton of 30 independent sample coking plants is - 54 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton. The daily output of hot metal of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.21 tons week - on - week, but is 2.62 tons higher than the same period last year. After the strong - expectation - driven rise in July, the short - term correction occurs [6].

运筹帷幄决胜千里 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2025 年第 30 周） 一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 2319.70 万吨，环比减 192.10 万吨，持续减量；其中巴西矿环比降 207.80 万 吨，而澳矿到货则是增 57.10 万吨，低位有所回升；其他矿到货环比降 41.40 万吨，维持高位。 2、海外矿石发运持续回升，全球 19 港矿石发运总量为 3200.90 万吨，环比增 91.80 万吨。增量来源 主要源于澳洲主流矿商，三家合计增 198.19 万吨，为此澳矿发运环比增 230.20 万吨，低位回升；巴西矿 发运则是减 26.20 万吨，维持年内高位；非澳巴矿环比减 112.20 万吨，再度回落。 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量将触底回升，但短期增幅有限，海外矿石供应趋稳运行。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 网址：www.bcqhgs.com 1 地址：杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 运筹帷幄决胜千里 2、全球 19 港发运量 3、四大矿商发运量 网址：www.bcqhgs.com 2 地址：杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern due to profit - taking by long positions and a collective decline in the black - chain commodity futures on Monday [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is likely to continue its weak and volatile trend, affected by the sharp decline in domestic coal futures and the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [4]. - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to remain in a volatile consolidation pattern, as the bearish impact of production increases has been digested, and it is currently the peak oil - consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of July 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 634,600 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons (0.28%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.39%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.13%. The inbound and outbound rates of both types of warehouses decreased [8]. - As of July 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, a week - on - week increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.06 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.98 percentage points. Production in some enterprises returned to normal, but overall shipments were flat, and inventory increased slightly [8]. - In June 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.9 percentage points. From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.5% and 11.4%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3%, accounting for 44.3% of total new vehicle sales [9]. Methanol - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 81.66%, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.35%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 15.35%. The weekly average methanol output was 1.8989 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 158,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 376,500 tons [10]. - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the operating rates of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE were 29.96% (a week - on - week decrease of 0.72%), 5.31% (unchanged), 92.95% (a week - on - week increase of 0.18%), and 57.16% (a week - on - week increase of 2.32%) respectively. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.39 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.15%. The futures profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was - 307 yuan/ton, a significant week - on - week decrease of 225 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month decrease of 218 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 587,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53,000 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 254,100 tons. The inventory in East China ports was 416,700 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 29,300 tons), and in South China ports was 170,400 tons (a week - on - week increase of 20,400 tons) [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 422, a week - on - week decrease of 2 and a year - on - year decrease of 55. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.273 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 102,000 barrels/day and a year - on - year decrease of 27,000 barrels/day [13]. - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 419 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 3.169 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 17.492 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 21.863 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 455,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 402.5 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 200,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 95.5%, a week - on - week increase of 1.6 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 0.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 3.9 percentage points [13]. - As of July 22, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 153,331 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 9,096 contracts and a significant decrease of 52,648 contracts compared to the June average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 227,245 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 11,576 contracts and a significant increase of 40,622 contracts compared to the June average [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,350 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 15,065 yuan/ton | - 520 yuan/ton | +285 yuan/ton | +520 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,530 yuan/ton | +30 yuan/ton | 2,404 yuan/ton | - 115 yuan/ton | +126 yuan/ton | +115 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 483.6 yuan/barrel | +0.3 yuan/barrel | 505.9 yuan/barrel | - 7.0 yuan/barrel | - 22.4 yuan/barrel | +7.3 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 9 - 1 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, etc. [17][19][21] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, 9 - 1 spread, domestic port methanol inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, etc. [29][31][33] - Crude Oil: Charts cover crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI and Brent crude oil net position changes, etc. [42][44][46]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: On Friday night, the copper price opened low and moved lower, with the main contract of Shanghai copper breaking below the 79,000 yuan mark. The market sentiment turned cold rapidly, and most previously rising commodities saw a downward trend with reduced positions. The social inventory of electrolytic copper on Monday was 125,000 tons, up 3,200 tons from last Thursday. Although the short - term commodity market is weak, Shanghai copper is relatively resistant to decline. Continued attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 79,000 yuan mark [5]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price declined on Friday night and fluctuated on Monday, with the position volume continuously decreasing. Affected by the weak market, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum on Monday was 514,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from last Thursday. With the short - term market weakening and inventory accumulation in the aluminum industry, the aluminum price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the support of the 40 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price soared and then dived on Friday night, remaining weak on Monday with a continuous decline in position volume. Affected by the market, attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 122,000 yuan level [7]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: First Quantum's copper production in Q2 2025 was 91,000 tons, a quarterly decline of 8.7% and a year - on - year decline of 11.3%, mainly due to the production decline at Kansanshi. The company's 2025 copper production guidance is 380,000 - 440,000 tons. On July 28, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 125,000 tons, up 3,200 tons from July 24 and down 500 tons from July 21 [9]. - **Aluminum**: On July 28, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 514,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from July 24 and up 34,000 tons from July 21 [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 28, Mysteel reported that for the Shanghai nickel market, the mainstream reference contract was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2,100 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,210 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was + 550 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,660 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was + 3,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,710 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,210 yuan/ton [11]. 4. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The charts involve aluminum basis, monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The charts include nickel basis, monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The coke futures had been rising driven by strong expectations, but after the short - term market sentiment was released, they faced a periodic correction as the actual impact of coal mine over - production rectification remained to be verified. The daily average coke output of independent and steel - mill coking plants increased week - on - week, while the ton - coke profit of independent sample coking plants decreased. The daily average iron - water output of steel mills decreased slightly week - on - week but was higher than the same period last year [3][27]. - The coal industry's anti - involution policy expectations were gradually realized. After the optimistic sentiment about coking coal was released, its price started a periodic adjustment as the actual impact of over - production rectification remained to be verified. The daily average coking coal output of mines increased week - on - week, imports from Mongolia recovered, and the demand for coking coal, reflected by coke output, also increased week - on - week [4][27]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry News - Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the trading limit for the coking coal futures JM2509 contract. From the trading time on July 29, 2025 (i.e., the night trading session on July 28), non - futures company members or clients' single - day opening volume on the JM2509 contract should not exceed 500 lots, and on other contracts, it should not exceed 2,000 lots. Hedging and market - making trading are not subject to these limits [5]. - In the first half of this year, China completed transportation fixed - asset investment of 1647.4 billion yuan, with railway, highway, waterway, and civil aviation investments of 355.9 billion yuan, 1129.1 billion yuan, 109.3 billion yuan, and 53.1 billion yuan respectively [6]. Spot Market - Coke: The current price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke at the flat - position was 1,320 yuan, with a week - on - week increase of 8.20%, a month - on - month increase of 8.20%, a year - on - year decrease of 21.89%, and a decrease of 35.29% compared to the same period last year. The current price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke at the ex - warehouse was 1,420 yuan, with corresponding changes of 11.81%, 22.41%, - 12.35%, and - 24.47% [7]. - Coking coal: The current price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,100 yuan, with a week - on - week increase of 15.79%, a month - on - month increase of 27.17%, a year - on - year decrease of 6.78%, and a decrease of 29.49% compared to the same period last year. The prices of Australian - produced and Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port also had different degrees of price changes [7]. Futures Market - The closing price of the active coke futures contract was 1,608.5 yuan, with a decline of 7.98%, a highest price of 1,749.0 yuan, a lowest price of 1,608.5 yuan, a trading volume of 62,942 lots (a decrease of 2,788 lots), and an open interest of 33,534 lots (a decrease of 3,861 lots) [10]. - The closing price of the active coking coal futures contract was 1,100.5 yuan, with a decline of 11.00%, a highest price of 1,288.5 yuan, a lowest price of 1,100.5 yuan, a trading volume of 3,461,352 lots (an increase of 1,272,139 lots), and an open interest of 393,117 lots (a decrease of 126,188 lots) [10]. Related Charts - A series of charts showed the inventory of coke and coking coal in different entities (such as independent coking plants, steel - mill coking plants, ports, and mines) over different time periods from 2019 - 2025 [11][16][22]. - Other charts presented the production situation of domestic steel mills, Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, the production situation of coal - washing plants, and the operation situation of coking plants, including indicators such as blast - furnace operating rate, steel - mill profitability, ton - coke profit, and coke - oven capacity utilization [23][24][26]. 后市研判 (Future Market Judgment) - Coke: The situation of production, profit, and demand was similar to that in the core viewpoints. After the short - term market sentiment was released, coke futures faced a periodic correction [27]. - Coking coal: The situation of production, imports, and demand was similar to that in the core viewpoints. After the optimistic sentiment was released, coking coal prices started a periodic adjustment [27].