Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **螺纹钢**: The main contract price of rebar showed a weak and volatile trend, with a daily decline of 0.33%, and both trading volume and open interest remained stable. In the current situation, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved under the situation of weak supply and demand. The pressure of inventory reduction is relatively large, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is that the cost still provides support. In the short - term, the price will continue to oscillate and seek the bottom. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - **热轧卷板**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.03%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. At present, the industrial contradictions of hot - rolled coil remain unresolved, inventory has increased again, and prices continue to be under pressure. However, the cost side still provides support. In the short - term, the price will continue to show a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - **铁矿石**: The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.20%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the demand for iron ore is weakening, while the supply remains at a high level. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak. Under the dominance of the real - world logic, the iron ore price will continue to be under pressure and show a weak operation trend. Attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Energy Supply for Heating Season**: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply for the 2025 - 2026 heating season, requiring all regions and relevant enterprises to ensure stable energy production and supply, and improve the performance of medium - and long - term energy contracts, especially focusing on coal supply for northern heating areas [7]. - **New Energy Vehicle Sales**: From January to October 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 27.692 million and 27.687 million vehicles respectively, with a year - on - year increase of over 10%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 13.015 million and 12.943 million vehicles respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively. In October, the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 51.6% of the total vehicle sales for the first time [8]. - **Anti - Dumping Ruling**: On November 10, 2025, Thailand's anti - dumping and counter - subsidy sub - committee decided to continue to impose a 5 - year anti - dumping duty on cold - rolled stainless steel products from China. The anti - dumping duty for Ningbo Baoxin Stainless Steel Co., Ltd. is 8.5%, and for other Chinese producers/ exporters is 33.32%. Some producers/ exporters are exempted from the duty [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) was 3,228 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the national average price of hot - rolled coil (4.75mm) was 3,308 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the price of Tangshan billet (Q235) was 2,940 yuan/ton, unchanged; and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2,140 yuan/ton, unchanged [10]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 773 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 798 yuan/ton, unchanged. The sea freight from Australia was 10.36 yuan/ton, down 0.09 yuan/ton, and from Brazil was 23.41 yuan/ton, down 0.12 yuan/ton. The SGX swap (current month) was 103.29, up 0.70, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 103.00, up 0.95 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change (%) | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,025 | - 0.33 | 753,110 | - 296,403 | 1,923,701 | - 32 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | 3,242 | 0.03 | 324,368 | - 50,997 | 1,326,892 | - 19,179 | | Iron Ore | 763.0 | 0.20 | 262,391 | - 65,052 | 530,352 | - 11,250 | 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: The report provides charts on the weekly changes and total inventory (including steel mills and social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil, which can be used to analyze the inventory trends of steel products [16][17][19]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts on the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines are provided, which are helpful for analyzing the supply and demand situation of iron ore [21][22][27]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts on the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, and the operating rate of independent electric furnaces are provided, which can be used to understand the production and operation status of steel mills [29][30][31]. 3.5后市研判 - **Rebar**: Both supply and demand are weakening. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 4.05 tons, and demand decreased by 13.66 tons. The fundamentals have not improved, and inventory reduction pressure is large. Although the cost provides support, the price will continue to oscillate and seek the bottom in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the production of steel mills [38]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand are weakening. The weekly output decreased by 5.40 tons, and demand decreased by 17.59 tons. Industrial contradictions remain unresolved, inventory has increased again, and prices are under pressure. The cost provides support, and the price will continue to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production restrictions [38]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and inventory has increased significantly. Ore demand continues to decline, while supply remains at a high level. The price will continue to be under pressure and show a weak trend. Attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market [39].

姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 焦炭：11 月 11 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1685 元/吨，日内录得 3.60%的 跌幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 3.85 万手，较前一交易日仓差为 +1280 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1620 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1530 元/吨，周 环比下跌 2.55%。本周产业博弈加剧，焦炭现货第四轮提涨存有一定阻 力。整体来看，焦炭原材料供应端分歧仍存，焦煤在震荡区间上沿再迎回 调，拖累焦炭期货走势，后续重点关注年底焦煤实际供应情况。 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on November 11, 2025, including basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for multiple sectors such as thermal coal, energy and chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][4][19][25][36][47]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The basis data of thermal coal from November 4 to November 10, 2025, are - 13.4, - 2.4, 6.6, 15.6, and 24.6 yuan/ton respectively, while the spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month are all 0.0 [2]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from November 4 to November 10, 2025, are presented, with the basis of INE crude oil being - 32.27, - 30.27, etc., and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt showing different values [6]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from November 4 to November 10, 2025, are provided, such as the basis of rubber being - 275, - 500, etc. [8]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given, like the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber being 75 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from November 4 to November 10, 2025, are shown, for example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on November 10 is 2182 yuan/ton [9]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 4 to November 10, 2025, are presented, such as the basis of rebar being 146, 146, etc. [19]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given, for instance, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar is 59.0 yuan/ton [18]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from November 4 to November 10, 2025, are shown, like the rebar/iron ore ratio on November 10 is 3.99 [18]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: - **Basis**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 4 to November 10, 2025, are provided, such as the basis of copper being 650, - 350, etc. [26]. - **London Market**: The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on November 10, 2025, are presented, for example, the LME spread of copper is (14.85) [31]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from November 4 to November 10, 2025, are shown, such as the basis of soybeans No.1 being - 35, - 103, etc. [37]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are given, like the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 is 42 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, etc. from November 4 to November 10, 2025, are presented, for example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on November 10 is 1.91 [37]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 4 to November 10, 2025, are provided, such as the basis of CSI 300 being 29.70, 30.66, etc. [48]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of next month - current month and next quarter - current quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given, for instance, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 is - 15.0 [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current economic recovery has many setbacks, with slow balance - sheet repair in the real economy. Super - conventional monetary and fiscal policies to manage inflation expectations may promote balance - sheet repair [29]. - In the bond market, credit spread compression is in the second half, and the year - end market may shift to medium - and long - term credit bonds. Credit bonds should focus on structural opportunities [29]. - In the bond market's oscillations, it's necessary to balance credit bond coupons and individual bond liquidity, and pay attention to the possibility of further overall easing [29]. - After the slowdown of gold price increase and the weakening of low - base and fiscal subsidy factors, core inflation may gradually decline, and the low - inflation pattern in China may continue. Monetary policy may push down nominal interest rates, and the domestic bond market is expected to perform well [30]. - The price of goods is bottoming out and recovering, which is positive for the stock market in the long - term, but the impact on the bond market needs further observation [31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - In Q3 2025, GDP growth was 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter. The manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, down from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, slightly up [1]. - In September 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.5%, 7.2%, and 8.4% respectively. The new RMB loans in September were 1290 billion yuan [1]. - In October 2025, CPI was 0.2% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year. The year - on - year growth rate of exports was - 1.1%, and that of imports was 1.0% [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The US suspended the 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding and other industries for one year. China suspended relevant fees and anti - countermeasures and adjusted the export management of precursor chemicals [2]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange waived trading fees for certain international board contracts from November 11, 2025, to the end of 2026 [2]. - On November 10, 2025, 38 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 31 had negative basis [2]. - The CSRC approved the registration of platinum and palladium futures and options, which will increase the number of market varieties to 164 [3]. - After a 40 - day government shutdown, the US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill, and the government shutdown may end this weekend [3]. - Fed's Daly believes that inflation in commodity prices is under control, and the current policy is in a good state [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - On November 10, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose by 430 yuan to 80,800 yuan/ton, and that of battery - grade lithium hydroxide rose by 130 yuan to 75,700 yuan/ton [4]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's gold consumption was 682,730 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.95%. Gold ETFs increased their positions by 79,015 tons, a year - on - year increase of 164.03% [5]. - Ganfeng Lithium's project in Argentina made key progress, with proven + controlled lithium resources of about 15.07 million tons of LCE [5]. - After Trump supported the government shutdown agreement, aluminum and copper prices rose. Chile's copper production in September decreased by 7.2% year - on - year [6][7]. - J.P. Morgan Private Bank believes that gold prices may exceed $5000 per ounce next year, driven by central bank purchases in emerging economies [7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Multiple provinces and cities issued pollution prevention plans for the autumn and winter, involving steel production regulation [9]. - Affected by factors such as the continuous decline of steel enterprises' purchase prices of molybdenum iron, the prices of molybdenum products decreased, but market trading volume increased [10]. - In late October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 19.99 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.817 million tons, a 9.8% decrease from the previous month [11]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Domestic refined oil prices were raised for the seventh time this year, with gasoline and diesel prices increasing by 125 yuan and 120 yuan per ton respectively [12]. - Two departments issued a guidance on promoting new energy consumption and regulation, aiming to build a new - energy consumption and regulation system by 2030 and 2035 [12]. - From November 8 - 10, 2025, Sinopec's Tianjin LNG receiving terminal unloaded about 160,000 tons of LNG, ensuring heating supply in North China [13]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In Shanxi, autumn grain harvesting is almost finished, and wheat sowing is progressing. As of November 7, over 70% of the wheat has been sown [14]. - The market is stable macro - economically, and the resumption of the soybean export qualification of three US enterprises has improved the export prospects of US soybeans, but future imports are still uncertain [14]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On November 10, 2025, the central bank conducted 119.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 41.6 billion yuan [15]. 3.3.2 Important News - The US suspended the 301 investigation on China for one year, and China made corresponding adjustments [16]. - The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill to end the government shutdown, which still needs House approval [17]. - The State Council issued measures to promote private investment, and ten departments released a plan to promote logistics data sharing [17]. - The 8th China International Import Expo closed with a record - high intended transaction volume of $83.49 billion, a 4.4% increase from the previous session [18]. - Central enterprises increased investment in key areas in the first three quarters, with fixed - asset investment exceeding 3 trillion yuan, a growth of over 3% [18]. - The Ministry of Finance will continue to issue local government debt quotas in advance, and many places have started project reserve work for 2026 [18]. - In October 2025, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 0.8% year - on - year, while the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger cars increased by 18.5% [18]. - In Shenzhen, the number of second - hand housing transactions has remained above 5000 for 8 consecutive months [19]. - The Ministry of Finance will issue up to 47.71 billion yuan of electronic savings bonds from November 10 - 19, 2025 [19]. - Hong Kong plans to issue multi - currency digital bonds for the third time [19]. - Some small and medium - sized banks have adjusted long - term deposit products due to the downward trend of net interest margins [20]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that Trump's proposed $2000 tariff dividend could be achieved through tax cuts [20]. - Japan's new government asked the central bank to postpone interest rate hikes, but the central bank may raise rates in December [20]. - There are bond - related events such as self - discipline punishments, full redemptions, and senior management investigations [21][22]. - Some overseas companies received credit rating confirmations or new ratings [22]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market strengthened with long - term bonds performing better. Bond futures mostly rose, and the money market tightened [23]. - In the exchange bond market, Vanke's bonds generally fell, while some other bonds rose [23]. - The convertible bond index rose, and the money market interest rates mostly went up [24]. - Bond issuance and trading data showed different trends, and overseas bond yields also changed [26]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 50 basis points at the 16:30 close, and the central parity rate was depreciated by 20 basis points [27]. - The US dollar index rose 0.07%, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance [27]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that super - conventional policies may promote balance - sheet repair in the real economy [29]. - Guosheng Fixed - Income expects the bond market to decline further from November - December, and credit bonds should focus on structural opportunities [29]. - Xingzheng Fixed - Income emphasizes balancing credit bond coupons and individual bond liquidity [29]. - CICC Fixed - Income expects core inflation to gradually weaken, and is optimistic about the domestic bond market [30]. - CITIC Securities is optimistic about the central bank's future bond - buying scale [30]. - Huatai Fixed - Income believes that prices are bottoming out, which is positive for stocks and needs further observation for bonds [31]. 3.4 Stock Market News - The Asset Management Association of China solicited opinions on the management guidelines for the thematic investment styles of public funds [33]. - On Monday, the A - share market showed a divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.53%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index falling 0.92% [33]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.55%, and southbound funds' cumulative net purchases exceeded HK$5 trillion [34]. - The China Securities Index Company will release two new indices on November 11, 2025 [34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak. The overall view is oscillation and consolidation. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation and consolidation. In the short term, due to the strong resilience of macro - economic data, the necessity of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased, and the upward space of Treasury bond futures is limited. In the long term, due to the insufficient effective domestic demand, the monetary policy is generally loose, and Treasury bond futures have strong support. Overall, Treasury bond futures will maintain an oscillatory and consolidatory state in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term is oscillation, the medium - term is oscillation, the intraday is weak, with an overall view of oscillation and consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, and the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation and consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated in a narrow range yesterday. As market interest rates declined, the upward space of Treasury bond futures was limited. In the short term, the strong resilience of macro - economic data reduced the necessity of comprehensive interest rate cuts. In the long term, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the monetary policy is generally loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures in the medium and long term [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is interval oscillation, with the mid - term view being strong and the intraday view being bullish. The core logic is the game between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits. In the short term, the incremental policy signals weaken, and the profit - taking intention of profitable funds rises with the increase in stock valuations, so the stock index needs to consolidate through oscillation. In the long run, the expectation of policy benefits and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market support the stock index [1][5] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the mid - term view is strong, the intraday view is bullish, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is the game between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is bullish, the mid - term view is strong, and the reference view is interval oscillation. Yesterday, each stock index oscillated slightly. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.1944 trillion yuan, an increase of 174.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The stock market is in an oscillating market with mixed long and short factors. The fermentation rhythm of policy benefit expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of funds are in a game, limiting both the upward and downward momentum of the stock index. In the long run, policy benefit expectations and capital inflow trends support the stock index, especially as next year is the beginning of the "14th Five - Year Plan". However, in the short term, the stock index needs to consolidate through oscillation due to the weakening of incremental policy signals and the rise in profit - taking intention [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2601 are expected to be oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA10 line. The industrial contradictions remain unresolved, and steel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - Market sentiment has warmed up, and steel prices have stabilized in oscillation. However, under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the trend will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - For rebar 2601, short - term trend is oscillatory, medium - term is oscillatory, and intraday is weakly oscillatory. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, with the core logic being that industrial contradictions are unresolved and steel prices oscillate at a low level [1]. Market Driving Logic - Commodity sentiment has warmed up, and combined with production restriction disturbances, steel prices have stabilized in oscillation. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed little. Supply has shrunk but remains at a relatively high level this year, and inventory reduction is limited. Demand indicators have declined and are at a low level in the same period in recent years. With the approaching of the off - season, demand is likely to weaken, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and the upward driving force is weak, so it is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term and show a short - line upward trend. Copper is predicted to be strong in the long - run [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Outlook**: Short - term is strong, medium - term is volatile, and intraday is slightly strong. The reference view is to be bullish in the short - line [1]. - **Driving Logic**: The end of the US government shutdown made the market focus on the underlying economic risks exposed by the shutdown, such as economic data interruption, weakened consumer confidence, and increased planned lay - offs. This led to expectations of a Fed rate cut, causing gold prices to rise. In the short - term, the price stabilizes and rebounds, and attention should be paid to the long - short game at the $4100 level [3]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term is slightly strong, medium - term is strong, and intraday is slightly strong. The reference view is to be bullish in the long - line [1]. - **Driving Logic**: The recent decline of the US dollar index is beneficial to non - ferrous metals. At the industrial level, as copper prices dropped from high levels, downstream purchasing willingness recovered, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased on Monday, strengthening industrial support. In the long - term, macro - level easing and supply contraction expectations will continue to support copper prices. In the short - term, the price stabilizes and rebounds, and attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 87,000 level [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) 2601 and synthetic rubber (BR) 2601 are expected to run strongly, with a short - term weak trend, a medium - term oscillatory trend, and a strong intraday trend [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On the night session of Monday this week, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.76% to 15,160 yuan/ton [5] - **Driving Logic**: The Senate of the US Congress has reached an agreement to end the federal government "shutdown", which has improved market optimism and boosted investors' risk appetite. After the enhancement of macro factors, combined with the acceptable supply - demand structure of the rubber market, it is expected that the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract may maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Tuesday this week [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On the night session of Monday this week, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2601 contract showed an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.83% to 10,285 yuan/ton [7] - **Driving Logic**: The Senate of the US Congress has reached an agreement to end the federal government "shutdown", which has improved market optimism and boosted investors' risk appetite. After the enhancement of macro factors, combined with the acceptable supply - demand structure of the rubber market. The market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated", and investors' sentiment has become more cautious. It is expected that the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2601 contract may maintain a strong trend on Tuesday this week [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on several commodity futures in the agricultural products sector, including soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil. It analyzes the driving factors and market conditions for each variety [5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and reference view is "oscillating strongly", medium - term view is "oscillating" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Market expects China to resume purchasing US soybeans, and there is uncertainty in Brazilian production area weather, driving up US soybean futures prices. China's soybean arrivals are expected to decrease monthly, alleviating long - term supply pressure. However, current soybean meal inventory is high, and downstream feed enterprises are cautious in purchasing, with demand not expected to increase significantly. The market is waiting for the USDA report and China's actual purchase of US soybeans to determine the price breakthrough direction, leading to increased short - term price volatility at high levels [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and reference view is "oscillating strongly", medium - term view is "oscillating" [7]. - **Core Logic**: The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil end - of - month inventory increased by 4.44% month - on - month to 2.4645 million tons, slightly higher than expected, indicating supply pressure. But exports increased by 18.58% month - on - month to 1.6929 million tons, exceeding expectations, which alleviated market pessimism. However, high - frequency data showed that exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.3% month - on - month, casting a shadow on future demand. Overall, the fundamental situation of palm oil has not changed, and short - term rebound space is limited [7]. Soybean Oil 2601 - **Viewpoints**: Short - term, medium - term, intraday, and reference view is "oscillating strongly" [6]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by Sino - US relations, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]. Palm 2601 - **Viewpoints**: Short - term is "weak", medium - term is "oscillating", intraday and reference view is "oscillating strongly" [6]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by its biodiesel attribute, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6].