Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Rebar**: The main contract price rebounded from the bottom, with a daily increase of 1.98%. Although the steel market sentiment improved due to production - restriction disturbances, the fundamentals of rebar did not improve substantially under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. The upward driving force is questionable, but the low - inventory situation means the current contradictions are not significant. It is expected that the rebar price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to domestic and foreign macro - policies [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price strengthened again, with a daily increase of 2.01%. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both weakened, the fundamentals deteriorated slightly, and the inventory increased slightly. However, the overall contradictions are not large, and the cost has increased significantly. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will maintain a high - level oscillating operation. Attention should be paid to overseas risks [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price oscillated upward, with a daily increase of 0.63%. The demand for iron ore has good resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the supply is expected to increase, the fundamentals of the iron ore market will change, and the market sentiment is weakening. It is expected that the iron ore price will continue to adjust in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **CMI Index**: In July 2025, the CMI index was 100.73, a year - on - year increase of 5.54% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.20%. The domestic construction machinery market continued to improve year - on - year, but the sales in the terminal market in July were slightly weaker than in June. The construction situation improved, and the regional markets were further differentiated [6]. - **Three Major White Goods Production Scheduling**: In August 2025, the total production scheduling of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 26.97 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. Among them, the production scheduling of household air conditioners decreased by 2.8%, refrigerators by 9.5%, and washing machines by 3.0% compared with the actual production in the same period last year [7]. - **Brazilian Investment in Iron Ore Project**: Brazil's J&F Group plans to invest more than $700 million in its iron ore subsidiary LHG Mining to expand production capacity, improve the logistics system, and promote a greener supply layout of steel raw materials. The annual production capacity of the Urucum mine is planned to increase from 12 million tons to 25 million tons [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and Tangshan billet are provided, along with price changes. For example, the national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) is 3,437 yuan, with a change of 16 yuan; the national average price of hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) is 3,504 yuan, with a change of 24 yuan [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate, and relevant indices such as the SGX swap and the Platts index are presented, along with their price changes. For instance, the price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 780 yuan, with a change of 10 yuan [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar active contract is 3,347 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.98%. The trading volume is 2,711,612 lots, a decrease of 703,101 lots, and the open interest is 2,175,237 lots, an increase of 239,356 lots [13]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil active contract is 3,503 yuan, with a daily increase of 2.01%. The trading volume is 1,006,596 lots, a decrease of 249,080 lots, and the open interest is 1,612,699 lots, an increase of 131,532 lots [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore active contract is 798.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.63%. The trading volume is 330,523 lots, a decrease of 200,933 lots, and the open interest is 482,200 lots, a decrease of 7,237 lots [13]. 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil, providing historical data from 2021 - 2025 [16][18][22][23]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mine iron concentrate, including inventory changes and seasonal data [21][25][26][28]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29][31][32][34]. 3.5后市研判 - **Rebar**: The supply of rebar has increased slightly, and the demand has improved. However, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is questionable. It is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to macro - policies [37]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have both weakened. The fundamentals have deteriorated slightly, and the inventory has increased slightly. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to overseas risks [38]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore has good resilience, but the supply is expected to increase. The fundamentals of the iron ore market will change, and it is expected to continue to adjust in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [39].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Coke**: On July 29, the main coke contract closed at 1,633 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.62%. The trading volume was 47,227 lots, and the open interest was 31,181 lots, a decrease of 2,353 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.79%; the ex - warehouse price at Qingdao Port was 1,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.45%. Positive news supported the low - level rebound of coke futures, but after the short - term release of optimistic sentiment, coke futures entered a phased correction due to the unverified impact of coal mine over - production rectification on coking coal output [5][30]. - **Coking Coal**: On July 29, the main coking coal contract closed at 1,120.5 points, with an intraday decline of 6.63%. The trading volume was 1,590,877 lots, and the open interest was 337,690 lots, a decrease of 55,427 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.50%, and the cost of futures warehouse receipts was about 1,177 yuan/ton. The price increase was mainly due to "anti - involution rectification" and "over - production rectification", but the actual impact of these policies remains to be verified. In the short term, there is still a risk of correction, but in the long term, the coal price center is expected to gradually rise after the capacity optimization and upgrading of the coal industry [6][31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - **Real Estate**: From July 21 to July 27, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.4137 million square meters, a week - on - week increase of 34.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.6%. The total transaction area of second - hand housing was 2.1341 million square meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 4% [8]. - **Coking Coal Auction**: On July 29, Mongolia's small TT company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of Meng 4 raw coal was 78 US dollars/ton, and all 1.0048 million tons were sold at a price of 78.5 US dollars/ton, excluding tax. The supply location is the supervision area of Ganqimaodu Port in China, and the supply time is within 360 days after payment, with the final supply date being July 29, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Coke**: The quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port had a current price of 1,370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.79%, a month - on - month increase of 12.30%, and a year - on - year decrease of 18.93%. At Qingdao Port, the price was 1,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.45%, a month - on - month increase of 20.69%, and a year - on - year decrease of 13.58% [10]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.50%, a month - on - month increase of 38.73%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.69%. The Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,480 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.68%, a month - on - month increase of 22.31%, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.67%. The Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.00%, a month - on - month increase of 32.00%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.84% [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Coke**: The closing price of the main contract was 1,633 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.62%. The highest price was 1,639 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,573.5 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 47,227 lots, a decrease of 15,715 lots, and the open interest was 31,181 lots, a decrease of 2,353 lots [13]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the main contract was 1,120.5 points, with a decline of 6.63%. The highest price was 1,129.5 points, the lowest was 1,050 points, the trading volume was 1,590,877 lots, and the open interest was 337,690 lots, a decrease of 55,427 lots [13]. 3.4 Related Charts The report provides multiple charts showing the inventory of coke and coking coal (including independent coking plants, steel mills' coking plants, ports), domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and rod procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [14][26][29]. 3.5 Future Outlook The views on coke and coking coal are consistent with the core views, emphasizing the short - term correction risk and long - term improvement in the fundamentals of the coal industry [30][31].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall non - ferrous sector continued its weak and volatile trend due to the rebound of the overseas US dollar index and the cooling domestic market sentiment [4][5][6]. - For Shanghai copper, the main contract price fluctuated weakly below 79,000 yuan. After the end of long - term order delivery near the end of the month, the market's sales sentiment weakened, and the spot premium increased. Technically, the price broke below 79,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average [4]. - For Shanghai aluminum, the main contract price dropped slightly in the morning and then oscillated narrowly around 20,600 yuan. The position decreased continuously, and the 8 - 9 month spread rebounded. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the support of the 40 - day moving average [5]. - For Shanghai nickel, the main contract price oscillated downward, breaking below 122,000 yuan, and the position decreased continuously. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 122,000 - yuan level [6]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - For copper, heavy rainfall in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region had little impact on the main distribution areas of refined copper rod factories. Currently, factories in North China are operating stably, and logistics and transportation are not affected [8]. - For aluminum, heavy rainfall in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region damaged some roads and hindered traffic. However, the areas where aluminum profile manufacturers are located received less rainfall, and overall production remained stable. Only a few enterprises reported that raw material transportation was affected [9]. - For nickel, on July 29, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,100 - 123,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel was 2,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel were in the range of - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [10]. Group 4: Relevant Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper month spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][19]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum month spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][26][28]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, nickel month spread, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][39][40].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract will maintain a volatile and slightly bullish trend. The geopolitical risks and improved macro - factors have led to a recovery in risk appetite in the commodity market, causing the oil price to jump. The domestic crude oil closed up 2.06% to 515.9 yuan/barrel on the night session of Monday this week, and it is expected to remain volatile and slightly bullish on Tuesday [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs A. Time - based Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile, and the medium - term view of crude oil (SC) is also volatile [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2509 is volatile and slightly bullish, and the intraday view of crude oil (SC) is also volatile and slightly bullish [1][5]. B. Core Logic - Geopolitical risks have emerged, and the geopolitical factor is that the US President Trump's remarks about being disappointed with Russian President Putin and shortening the deadline became the focus of the crude oil futures market, causing the oil price to jump [1][5]. - Macro - factors have improved. The US and Europe reached a trade agreement last weekend, and China and the US will hold an economic and trade meeting in Sweden at the end of this month, which led to a recovery in risk appetite in the commodity market [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) futures are expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend on Tuesday, July 29, 2025, despite an initial improvement in market sentiment due to macro - factors [5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Monday, the 2509 contract of Shanghai rubber futures closed slightly lower by 1.15% to 15,065 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term view is fluctuating, the medium - term view is fluctuating strongly, and the intraday view is fluctuating weakly. It is expected to run weakly [1][5]. - **Driving Logic**: Although macro - factors such as trade agreements between the US, Europe, and China improved market risk appetite, the sharp decline in domestic coal futures prices since last Friday night weakened the bullish sentiment in the commodity futures market, leading to a weakening of Shanghai rubber [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Monday, the 2509 contract of synthetic rubber futures closed slightly lower by 1.57% to 11,935 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term view is fluctuating, the medium - term view is fluctuating strongly, and the intraday view is fluctuating weakly. It is expected to run weakly [1][7]. - **Driving Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, the improvement in macro - factors was offset by the decline in coal futures. Additionally, the weakness of crude oil and Shanghai rubber also contributed to the decline of synthetic rubber [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity futures market is an important part of the financial market, providing functions such as price discovery, risk management, and resource allocation to help real - enterprises operate stably, optimize resource allocation, and enhance competitiveness. Studying how to improve the service quality of the commodity futures market to the real economy is of great significance for promoting high - quality development of the real economy [2] - Although the commodity futures market has achieved remarkable results in serving the real economy, there are still short - boards. To improve its service quality, a systematic plan should be constructed from aspects such as function improvement, mechanism innovation, and ecological optimization [4][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Value of the Commodity Futures Market to the Real Economy - Provide risk management tools to ensure stable production and operation of enterprises. Through hedging, it helps enterprises lock in costs and prices and hedge price risks [2] - Form public and transparent price signals to optimize resource allocation. Futures prices can guide enterprises in production planning and inventory adjustment [2] - Promote industrial chain collaboration and upgrading. Standardized contracts and delivery rules can unify quality standards and promote industrial integration [3] - Serve national macro - regulation and help the economy operate smoothly. Transaction data in the futures market can provide references for government policy - making [3] Current Situation of the Commodity Futures Market Serving the Real Economy - The market has developed rapidly, with an expanding scale, rich varieties, and improved mechanisms, providing diverse risk management tools for enterprises. More enterprises are participating in the market [3] - However, there are still problems, including an incomplete variety system, low enterprise participation ability and willingness, blockages in the linkage between futures and spot markets, and high market risk - prevention pressure [4][5] Paths to Improve the Service Quality of the Commodity Futures Market to the Real Economy Optimize the Variety and Tool System - Accelerate the R & D and listing of new varieties, such as platinum, palladium, lithium hydroxide, photovoltaic component, and power futures, to meet the diversified risk management needs of the real economy [6] - Enrich trading tools, promote the R & D of derivatives like options and swaps, and optimize futures - spot combined trading tools [7] Strengthen Subject Cultivation - For institutional investors, increase cultivation efforts to optimize the investor structure, encourage the establishment of commodity futures theme investment funds, and guide them to adopt scientific investment strategies [7] - For industrial enterprises, strengthen the service system, conduct training to improve their understanding and application ability of futures tools, and optimize trading rules to reduce the participation cost of small and medium - sized enterprises [8] - For futures companies, strengthen professional capacity building, encourage R & D investment, and establish an evaluation system to improve service levels [8] Deepen Futures - Spot Linkage - Promote futures companies' risk management subsidiaries to carry out relevant businesses, develop intelligent research platforms, and strengthen the connection with the spot logistics system [9] Improve the Regulatory System - Use advanced technologies to monitor trading data, strengthen compliance supervision of relevant institutions, educate investors, and establish a complaint - handling mechanism [9] Promote Opening - up - Support qualified futures companies to set up overseas branches, strengthen cooperation with overseas exchanges, and promote the international recognition of RMB - denominated futures varieties [10] Strengthen Promotion and Talent Cultivation - Promote the functions and operation practices of the futures market to enterprises through various activities, and build a multi - level talent system [10]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The methanol 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. In the short - term, it is slightly stronger in a volatile manner, in the medium - term it is volatile, and on the day it is slightly weaker in a volatile manner, with an overall view of weak operation [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For the methanol 2509 contract, the short - term view is slightly stronger in a volatile manner, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is slightly weaker in a volatile manner, and the overall view is weak operation. The core logic is that the cost drive has weakened, leading to a weak and volatile trend of methanol [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemicals Sector - In the context of improved macro factors, the risk appetite in the commodity market has recovered. However, since the night session on Friday, the domestic coal futures prices have corrected from high levels, dragging the methanol futures 2509 contract to stop rising and turn down. With the weakening of the cost - drive logic, the weak supply - demand structure of methanol has once again dominated the futures price. On Monday night, the 2509 contract closed down 1.23% to 2412 yuan/ton. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain a weak and volatile trend on Tuesday [5].

Report Overview - **Report Name**: Baocheng Futures Treasury Bond Futures Morning Report (July 29, 2025) - **Report Type**: Futures Research Report - **Report Author**: Long Aoming - **Author Department**: Baocheng Futures Investment Consulting Department - **Author Qualification**: F3035632 (从业资格证号), Z0014648 (投资咨询证号) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2509 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias". The overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is biased towards looseness, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Previously, due to the easing of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid rise in stock market risk appetite, the demand for treasury bonds was weak, and treasury bond futures were in an oscillatory adjustment. As market interest rates rose rapidly, the anchoring effect of policy rates emerged, and the upward space for treasury bond yields was limited. In the long - term, a loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, so the long - term upward basis for treasury bond futures is relatively solid. In the short - term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and treasury bond futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **TL2509**: Short - term: oscillation; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillation with a weak bias; Overall view: oscillation. Core logic: The monetary policy environment is biased towards looseness, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS. - **Intraday view**: Oscillation with a weak bias; **Medium - term view**: Oscillation; **Reference view**: Oscillation. - **Core logic**: Treasury bond futures oscillated and rose yesterday. Previously, due to the easing of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid rise in stock market risk appetite, the demand for treasury bonds was weak, and treasury bond futures were in an oscillatory adjustment. As market interest rates rose rapidly, the anchoring effect of policy rates emerged, and the upward space for treasury bond yields was limited. In the long - term, a loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, so the long - term upward basis for treasury bond futures is relatively solid. In the short - term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and treasury bond futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation trend [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to decline in the short - term, trade sideways in the medium - term, and trade sideways with a downward bias intraday, with a short - term bearish view [1][3]. - Copper is expected to rise in the short - term and medium - term, and trade sideways with an upward bias intraday, with a short - term bullish view [1][4]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - **Price Performance**: In the overnight session, New York gold dropped to the $3300 level and then rebounded slightly, while Shanghai gold briefly fell below the 770 - yuan level [3]. - **Core Logic**: Positive trade signals between the US and Japan, the US and Europe, and the US and China at the end of July reduced trade policy uncertainty, increased market risk appetite, and put pressure on gold prices. Keep an eye on the China - US economic and trade talks in Sweden [3]. - **Suggestion**: As gold prices are at the lowest level since the second quarter, pay attention to the long - short battle at the $3300 level [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: After the market sentiment turned cold on Friday night, copper prices declined. The main contract of Shanghai copper stabilized at around 79,000 yuan in the overnight session [4]. - **Core Logic**: Although the short - term commodity market weakened and copper prices followed, the fluctuations of domestic - priced black and chemical products had little impact on Shanghai copper. Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory on Monday was 125,000 tons, up 3200 tons from last Thursday [4]. - **Suggestion**: Keep an eye on the long - short battle of the main contract of Shanghai copper at the 79,000 - yuan level [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 多空分歧 原油震荡整理 宝城期货 闾振兴 尽管 OPEC+延续加速扩产的趋势，但随着前期削减的产能逐步得到修复，未来进一步扩产的空间有限。 与此同时，全球三大能源机构纷纷下调今年的原油需求预期。不过，当前正处于北半球的消费旺季，油市 供需基本面多空分歧较大。受此影响，近期国内外原油期货价格呈现震荡整理走势，其中，国内原油期货 2509 合约价格维持 500~520 元/桶区间波动，上下运行空间均受限。 宏观因素推动原油金融属性增强 上周五，美国稳定币法案在众议院投票中顺利通过，距离正式生效仅差美国总统特朗普签字。该法案 规定稳定币需以美元或美国短期国债作为储备资产，这不仅强化了美元在全球金融体系中的主导地位，还 极有可能在很大程度上化解年内的美债危机，增强美债市场的购买力量，进而降低潜在系统性风险发生的 概率。 与此同时，近期国内"反内卷"政策释放出积极信号。在"蝴蝶效应"的作用下，乐观情绪传导至其他商 品期货领域。在新一轮供给侧结构性改革预期的推动下，近期国内黑色系商品板块与建材系商品板块联袂 大幅上涨，这无疑激发了能化商品多头的热情。 ...