Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the fluctuating market of the CSI 1000 Index, it is advisable to construct a bull spread strategy using CSI 1000 index options. The market sentiment is generally positive, the implied volatility is at a low level, and the index is likely to fluctuate in the short - term while having an upward trend in the medium - to - long - term [1][11] - The policies during the 15th Five - Year Plan period will continue to boost consumption, stabilize macro - economic aggregate demand, and promote a positive economic cycle [8][9] - The trend of incremental funds flowing into the stock market remains unchanged, which strongly supports the stock index [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions of CSI 1000 Index - Since September, the CSI 1000 Index has entered a range - bound market. Due to the intertwined bullish and bearish factors, it is difficult for investors to time the market, and using linear profit - loss tools for asset allocation bears high volatility risks [1] - The CSI 1000 Index is likely to fluctuate in the short term because although there are positive policy expectations and continuous capital inflows, there is still a need for short - term technical consolidation due to the significant increase in stock valuations [5] Option Indicators - As of November 6, the position PCR of CSI 1000 index options was 108.90%, at the 96.0% quantile level since 2023, indicating that the proportion of non - bearish investors in the market is at a relatively high historical quantile, and the market sentiment is generally positive [3] - Since late October, the at - the - money implied volatility of CSI 1000 index options has continued to decline. As of November 6, it was 18.15%, at the 37.5% quantile level since 2023. It is advisable to hold a positive vega risk exposure when constructing option portfolio strategies [4][5] Policy Factors - In October, the manufacturing PMI showed a seasonal decline, indicating that the problem of insufficient domestic demand still exists, and subsequent policies may continue to work on stabilizing demand and restoring corporate profit expectations [6] - The consumption - boosting policies during the 15th Five - Year Plan period will create new markets, reduce the living burden of residents, and promote a positive economic cycle [8][9] Capital Factors - As of November 6, the margin trading balance was 2.47 trillion yuan, significantly higher than that in September last year and June this year. The active margin trading funds can attract more investors to enter the market [10] - Resident wealth management funds, institutional medium - and long - term funds, and foreign capital are continuously flowing into the stock market. The long - term funds entering the market have enhanced the internal stability of the A - share market, and the trend of foreign capital inflows remains unchanged [10] Strategy Suggestions - A bull spread strategy can be constructed using CSI 1000 index options. Taking the call bull spread as an example, this strategy is suitable for a moderately bullish market, with limited maximum losses and the potential to accumulate floating profits when the index rises [11][13]

7 月下旬至今，焦炭期货继续维持区间震荡格局。J2601 合约主要运行区间为 1553.0 元/ 吨至 1864.5 元/吨，期间多次尝试向上突破未果。截至 11 月 7 日夜盘，焦炭主力合约报收于 1740.0 元/吨，录得 1.39%的跌幅。从基本面看，近几周焦炭供需结构未有明显改善，最新一 期钢联数据显示其仍呈现供需双降态势。当前焦企与钢厂利润普遍承压，市场对焦炭需求偏 弱的预期较为一致，主要分歧集中在 11 月焦煤供应是否会出现进一步收缩。若主产区安监与 产能核查影响持续释放，导致焦煤供应实质性收缩，焦炭成本支撑有望强化，并推动期货偏 强运行；反之，若焦炭成本端驱动减弱，在现实基本面拖累下，焦炭期货或继续维持区间震 荡运行。 成本强支撑，焦炭三轮涨价落地 现货市场方面，11 月首周，原材料焦煤价格偏强运行，线下竞拍涨多跌少，焦炭经营压 力较重，促成焦炭现货第三轮提涨落地。截至 11 月 7 日，甘其毛都口岸蒙 5 精煤库提价 1435 元/吨，周环比上涨 45 元/吨。提涨落地后，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价 1620 元/吨，环比上 涨 50 元，较去年同期价格偏低 270 元/吨，折合期货仓单成本约 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices declined from a high level, with strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions. Last week, Shanghai copper showed a trend of declining with reduced positions. The main contract price of Shanghai copper stabilized at around 85,000 yuan, and the decline in open interest also slowed down. Affected by the Fed's hawkish stance, the market sentiment turned cold, and the strong US dollar index pressured copper prices. Additionally, LME copper was at a near - 5 - year high, leading to strong short - term profit - taking intentions among long - position holders. In the second half of the week, the US dollar index retreated after reaching a high, facing some pressure at the 100 mark, corresponding to a sign of copper price stabilization and recovery. On the industrial level, as copper prices declined, downstream purchasing willingness recovered, and the spot premium strengthened. The domestic upstream electrolytic copper production has decreased significantly for two consecutive months. In the medium - to - long - term, macro - easing and supply contraction expectations may continue to support copper prices. In the short term, the support at the 85,000 - yuan mark can be continuously monitored [5][54]. - **Aluminum**: With positive domestic macro - economic conditions and the resurgence of the "anti - involution" expectation, aluminum prices showed strong performance. Last week, Shanghai aluminum showed a trend of rising with increased positions. The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum reached above 20,600 yuan, approaching the high in November 2024. At the macro level, the domestic "anti - involution" expectation was strong, and the relatively strong varieties in the third quarter all strengthened again. Industrially, global electrolytic aluminum inventories were at a low level, and the market expected that overseas electrolytic aluminum supply might be restricted by electricity. As aluminum prices strengthened, domestic downstream purchasing willingness declined, and the destocking of electrolytic aluminum social inventories slowed down. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the November 2024 high above and the support of the 10 - day moving average below [6][54]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors After the Fed's interest - rate meeting at the end of October, the overall US dollar index showed a strong performance, putting pressure on non - ferrous metals. Last week, the US dollar index retreated after reaching a high, showing some pressure at the 100 mark, corresponding to the stabilization and recovery of copper prices. The trend of the US dollar index can be continuously monitored [10]. 3.2 Copper - **Volume and Price Trends**: Shanghai copper declined with reduced positions last week, and the main contract price stabilized at around 85,000 yuan. The decline in open interest also slowed down. The US dollar index and market sentiment affected copper prices, and there was a sign of price recovery in the second half of the week [5][54]. - **Copper Ore Shortage**: No specific shortage - related analysis was provided in the text, but only relevant data charts such as copper concentrate port inventory and TC processing fees were presented [26]. - **Electrolytic Copper Stockpiling**: There were data on domestic and overseas electrolytic copper inventories, but no in - depth analysis of stockpiling was provided [28]. - **Downstream Initial - stage**: There was a chart of copper downstream monthly capacity utilization, but no detailed analysis [32]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Volume and Price Trends**: Shanghai aluminum rose with increased positions last week, and the main contract price reached above 20,600 yuan, approaching the high in November 2024. The macro - economic situation and market expectations affected aluminum prices [6][54]. - **Upstream Industry Chain**: There were data on bauxite port inventory and alumina price, but no in - depth analysis [42][46]. - **Slowed Destocking of Electrolytic Aluminum**: Global electrolytic aluminum inventories were at a low level, and the market expected overseas supply to be restricted by electricity. As aluminum prices strengthened, domestic downstream purchasing willingness declined, and the destocking of electrolytic aluminum social inventories slowed down [6][54]. - **Downstream Initial - stage**: There were data on aluminum rod capacity utilization, 6063 aluminum rod processing fees, and 6063 aluminum rod inventory, but no detailed analysis [48][50][53]. 3.4 Conclusion The conclusion is consistent with the core views, emphasizing the short - term and long - term trends of copper and aluminum prices, as well as the influencing factors from both macro and industrial levels [54].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Recently, the gold price has shown a volatile consolidation pattern. New York gold fluctuates around the $4,000 mark, and the corresponding Shanghai gold fluctuates around 915 yuan [6][23]. - Factors influencing the gold price recently include: Fed policy divergence leading market sentiment, with multiple officials making hawkish statements, reducing the expectation of a December interest rate cut and pressuring the gold price; the risk of a US government shutdown and the delay in key economic data release weakening the US dollar's fundamentals and providing some safe - haven support for the gold price; the US dollar index hitting a three - month high, suppressing the gold price, but a short - term pullback in the US dollar index and pressure at the 100 mark corresponding to a recovery sign in the gold price [6][23]. - In the short term, the gold price is under pressure. Continuously monitor the long - short game of New York gold at $4,000. In the medium - to - long term, the safe - haven allocation demand for gold still exists. If it declines, pay attention to the support at $3,900 and the 60 - day moving average [6][23]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report presents a chart of the US dollar index linkage, but no specific content about the weekly trend is described [10]. 1.2 Indicator Changes | Indicator | November 7 | October 31 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $4,007.80 | $4,013.40 | - 0.14% | | COMEX Silver | $48.23 | $48.25 | - 0.05% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 921.26 yuan | 921.92 yuan | - 0.07% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 11,484.00 yuan | 11,441.00 yuan | 0.38% | | US Dollar Index | 99.55 | 99.73 | - 0.18% | | US Dollar against Off - shore RMB | 7.12 | 7.12 | 0.03% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.83 | 1.81 | + 0.02 | | S&P 500 | 6,728.80 | 6,840.20 | - 1.63% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $59.84 | $60.88 | - 1.71% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 83.11 | 83.18 | - 0.09% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 80.22 | 80.58 | - 0.45% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,042.06 tons | 1,039.20 tons | + 2.86 tons | | iShare Gold ETF | 481.84 tons | 483.00 tons | - 1.16 tons | [11] 2. Gold Price Volatility - Last week, the US dollar index rose and then fell, once breaking through the 100 mark and the high in late July. As the US dollar pulled back, the gold price gradually strengthened in the short term [13]. - Last week, market risk appetite declined, and the US stock market declined and then stabilized [15]. 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - Last week, the gold price stabilized with fluctuations, and the outflow from ETFs slowed down [17]. - Last week, precious metals stabilized with fluctuations, and the gold - silver ratio fluctuated weakly [19]. 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, stating the current consolidation pattern of the gold price, influencing factors, short - term pressure, and medium - to - long - term safe - haven demand [23].

国债期货区间震荡为主 核心观点 国债期货：国债期货区间震荡为主 上周国债期货均震荡回落。。短期内国债期货上行驱动与下行 驱动均有限。由于短期内全面降息的必要性不强，加上市场利率逐 渐向政策利率靠拢，国债期货继续上行的动能有限。而中长期来看 内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，未来货币环境整体偏宽松，国债期 货具有较强支撑。总的来说，短期内国债期货以区间震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 周报 2025 年 11 月 10 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 投资咨询号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 从业资格号：F3035632 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 9 请务必阅读 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, stock indices will maintain range - bound oscillations. Currently, the market is in a stage where the rhythm of policy - driven positive expectations and the rhythm of profit - taking by funds are in a tug - of - war. In the medium to long term, policy - driven positive expectations and the trend of net capital inflows into the stock market provide strong support for stock indices. However, in November, the incremental signals from the policy side have weakened, and although external risk factors have eased, uncertainties still remain, limiting the upward driving force of stock indices. With the significant increase in the valuation of stocks, the demand for profit - taking by profitable funds has risen, and there is still a need for technical consolidation of stock indices [3][9][84]. - The implied volatility of ETF options and stock index options is at a relatively low level. Considering that the stock indices are expected to rise in the medium to long term, it is advisable to maintain a mild bullish stance through bull spreads or ratio spreads [4][85]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Stock Index Trends Last week, all stock indices showed a trend of hitting bottom and then rebounding. The market is in a stage of game between the fermentation of policy - driven positive expectations and profit - taking by funds, with multiple long and short factors intertwined, leading to repeated oscillations of stock indices. In the medium to long term, policy - driven positive expectations and the trend of net capital inflows into the stock market provide strong support for stock indices. However, in November, the incremental signals from the policy side have weakened, and although external risk factors have eased, uncertainties still remain, limiting the upward driving force of stock indices. With the significant increase in the valuation of stocks, the demand for profit - taking by profitable funds has risen, and there is still a need for technical consolidation of stock indices [9]. 3.1.2 Option Price Trends This week, the 50ETF had a weekly increase of 0.82%, closing at 3.186; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) had a weekly increase of 0.82%, closing at 4.795; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) had a weekly increase of 0.71%, closing at 4.941; the CSI 300 Index had a weekly increase of 0.82%, closing at 4678.79; the CSI 1000 Index had a weekly increase of 0.47%, closing at 7541.88; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) had a weekly increase of 0.05%, closing at 7.440; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) had a weekly decrease of 0.03%, closing at 2.968; the GEM ETF had a weekly increase of 0.60%, closing at 3.185; the Shenzhen 100ETF had a weekly increase of 0.03%, closing at 3.567; the SSE 50 Index had a weekly increase of 0.89%, closing at 3038.35; the STAR 50ETF had a weekly decrease of 0.07%, closing at 1.49; the E Fund STAR 50ETF had a weekly increase of 0.00%, closing at 1.44 [16]. 3.1.3 Futures Basis and Monthly Spreads of Stock Index Futures The basis of the four stock index futures varieties: The basis of IF and IH is at a normal quantile level, while IM and IC show a state of significant backwardation in the far - month futures. The inter - period spreads between the current quarter and the next quarter of IC and IM futures have rebounded, indicating that the market's short - term risk appetite for IC and IM has increased [22]. 3.2 Option Indicators 3.2.1 PCR Indicators The trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 121.96, and the previous trading day's trading volume PCR was 102.40; the open - interest PCR was 93.44, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 94.38. Similar data for other ETF and index options are also provided in the report [36]. 3.2.2 Implied Volatility The implied volatility of at - the - money options of SSE 50ETF options in November 2025 was 12.35%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 12.16%. Similar data for other ETF and index options are also provided in the report [56]. 3.3 Conclusion - Stock index futures: Short - term, stock indices will maintain range - bound oscillations. The current market situation and influencing factors are the same as described in the core viewpoints [84]. - ETF options and stock index options: The implied volatility is at a relatively low level. Considering the medium - to - long - term upward trend of stock indices, maintain a mild bullish stance through bull spreads or ratio spreads [85].

Report Overview - This is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for November 10, 2025, providing data on various futures products including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] 1. Power Coal - The report presents the basis and spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of power coal from November 3 to November 7, 2025 [2] 2. Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are provided [7] Chemical Commodities - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are presented [9] - Inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given [10] - Inter - commodity spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3 * methanol) from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are provided [10] 3. Black Metals Inter - period Spreads - Inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. The main contracts for rebar are in January, May, and October [19] Inter - commodity Spreads - Inter - commodity spreads (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, rebar - hot rolled coil) from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are provided [19] Basis - The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are given [20] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are presented [28] London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on November 7, 2025, are provided [34] 5. Agricultural Products Basis - The basis data of soybeans (first - grade, second - grade), soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are given [42] Inter - period Spreads - Inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) for soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are presented [42] Inter - commodity Spreads - Inter - commodity spreads (soybeans (first - grade)/corn, soybeans (second - grade)/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, corn - corn starch) from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are provided [41] 6. Stock Index Futures Basis - The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are presented [53] Inter - period Spreads - Inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given [53]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term view of Treasury bond futures is mainly for consolidation, with limited upward and downward drivers in the short - term. In the long - term, due to the insufficient effective domestic demand, the monetary environment will be overall loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures [5] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Content 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak. The reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the long - term expectation of easing still exists [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated last Friday. In the short - term, the necessity of a comprehensive interest rate cut is not strong, and market interest rates are gradually approaching policy rates, so the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. In the long - term, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the future monetary environment will be overall loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 11 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 供需格局偏弱，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 周末钢材现货价格弱稳运行，成交表现偏弱，而螺纹钢供需格局未好转，产量虽有所回落，但 仍处年内相对高位，且库存去化有限，供应压力未缓解。与此同时，螺纹需求再度转弱，高频指标 下行且位于近年来同期低位，而下游行业未改善，需求表现偏弱，继续承压钢价。目前来看，供需 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core Views - The short - term and intraday views of both沪胶 (RU) 2601 and合成胶 (BR) 2601 are偏弱, and the medium - term view is震荡. The reference view for both is偏弱运行 [1][5][7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content 沪胶 (RU) - Core Logic: Recent hawkish remarks from some Fed officials, the potential delay of October CPI data due to the US government shutdown, and the impact on US economic resilience have led to a weaker macro - atmosphere, offsetting the positive demand support in the rubber market. On the night of last Friday, the domestic沪胶 futures 2601 contract showed a slightly weaker trend, with the price closing 0.20% lower at 14,995 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a weaker trend on Monday [5]. 合成胶 (BR) - Core Logic: Similar to沪胶, recent hawkish remarks from Fed officials, the potential delay of October CPI data, and the impact on US economic resilience have made the market shift from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated", and investors have become more cautious. On the night of last Friday, the domestic合成胶 futures 2601 contract showed a weaker trend, with the price closing 0.73% lower at 10,160 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a weaker trend on Monday [7].