Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price of rebar declined weakly with a daily drop of 2.05%, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. In the current situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially. Under the dominance of industrial logic, steel prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factor is that the real - world contradictions are not significant under the low - inventory situation. It is expected that the rebar price will shift to a volatile downward trend, and domestic policies should be monitored [4]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil weakened and declined, recording a daily drop of 2.30%, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have weakened, the fundamentals have deteriorated slightly, inventory has increased slightly, but overall contradictions are not significant, and costs have risen significantly. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will maintain a high - level volatile operation, and overseas risks should be monitored [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price of iron ore continued to decline, with a daily drop of 1.75%, and both volume and positions decreased. Currently, the optimistic sentiment has weakened, and the over - valued ore price is oscillating downward. The relatively positive factor is that the fundamentals of iron ore are still acceptable under the current situation of weak supply and strong demand, and the downward space is limited. Under the dominance of industrial logic, it is expected that the ore price will continue the high - level adjustment trend, and the performance of finished products should be monitored [4]. 3) Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - **Industrial Profits**: In June, the year - on - year decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size narrowed compared with May. The new kinetic energy industries represented by the equipment industry had relatively fast profit growth. The operating income continued to grow, and the decline in enterprise profits narrowed. In June, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.0% year - on - year, with the same growth rate as in May. The total profit reached 715.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3%, and the decline narrowed by 4.8 percentage points compared with May. From January to June, the operating income increased by 2.5%, and the profit decreased by 1.8% [6]. - **Transportation Investment**: In the first half of this year, China completed transportation fixed - asset investment of 1.6474 trillion yuan. Investment in railways, highways, waterways, and civil aviation was 355.9 billion yuan, 1.1291 trillion yuan, 109.3 billion yuan, and 53.1 billion yuan respectively [7]. - **Anglo American's Iron Ore Production and Sales**: In the second quarter of 2025, Anglo American's iron ore production was 15.94 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous quarter and a 2% increase year - on - year. The production in the first half of the year was 31.38 million tons, a 2% year - on - year increase. The sales volume in the second quarter was 16.41 million tons, a 13% increase from the previous quarter and a 1% decrease year - on - year. The sales volume in the first half of the year was 30.97 million tons, a 5% year - on - year increase. The annual production target remains at 57 - 61 million tons, and the company has completed 55% of the lower - limit target in the first half of the year. The annual unit cash cost target remains at $36 per ton [8]. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and Tangshan billet all decreased. The national average price of rebar dropped by 41 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil dropped by 34 yuan/ton [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports decreased by 14 yuan/ton, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate decreased by 5 yuan/ton [9]. Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3,248 yuan/ton, a 2.05% decline, with a trading volume of 3,414,713 lots and a decrease in positions of 62,771 lots [11]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3,397 yuan/ton, a 2.30% decline, with a trading volume of 1,255,676 lots and a decrease in positions of 73,396 lots [11]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the main iron ore contract was 786.0 yuan/ton, a 1.75% decline, with a trading volume of 531,456 lots and a decrease in positions of 39,554 lots [11]. Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil, as well as the inventory of iron ore in 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines [13][18]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [27][29][32]. 后市研判 - **Rebar**: Supply has increased slightly, and demand has improved, but both are still at low levels in recent years. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and it is expected that the price will shift to a volatile downward trend [35]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand have weakened, the fundamentals have deteriorated slightly, inventory has increased slightly, and it is expected that the price will maintain a high - level volatile operation [36]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand is still resilient, but the supply pattern is changing. The over - valued ore price is oscillating downward, and it is expected to continue the high - level adjustment trend [37].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term view of being moderately strong, a medium - term view of being volatile, and an intraday view of being moderately weak. The main reason is that the cost driver has weakened, and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol is re - dominating the futures price [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Contents Price and Performance - Last Friday night, the domestic coal futures prices had a high - level correction and a sharp decline, which dragged the methanol futures 2509 contract down 2.80% to 2430 yuan/ton [5] Market Environment - Over the weekend, the US and Europe reached a trade agreement, and China and the US will hold an economic and trade meeting in Sweden at the end of this month. Against the backdrop of improved macro factors, the risk appetite in the commodity market has rebounded [5] Outlook - It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain a moderately weak volatile trend on Monday [5] Definition of Price Movements - For commodities with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the daily - session closing price. A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is moderately weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is moderately strong, and a rise greater than 1% is a rise. Moderately strong/weak only applies to intraday views, not short - term and medium - term views [2][3][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) futures contracts 2509 are expected to run weakly, with an intraday view of being weakly volatile and a medium - term view of being strongly volatile [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Movement**: On the night session of last Friday, the Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract closed 1.59% lower at 15,210 yuan/ton [5]. - **Driving Logic**: Although the macro - factors have improved with the US - Europe trade agreement and the upcoming China - US economic and trade meeting, the sharp decline of domestic coal futures on the night session of last Friday weakened the bullish atmosphere in the commodity futures market. As a result, the Shanghai rubber futures are expected to be weakly volatile on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Movement**: On the night session of last Friday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract closed 1.87% lower at 12,090 yuan/ton [7]. - **Driving Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, the improvement of macro - factors was counteracted by the decline of domestic coal futures, and combined with the weakening of crude oil and Shanghai rubber, the synthetic rubber futures are expected to be weakly volatile on Monday [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation - weak respectively [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Situation - The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed slightly lower by 1.32% to 501.9 yuan/ton on the night session of last Friday [5]. Driving Factors - Macro factors improved as the US and Europe reached a trade agreement last weekend, and China and the US will hold an economic and trade meeting in Sweden at the end of this month, leading to a recovery in the risk appetite of the commodity market [5]. - The sharp decline of black commodities on last Friday weakened the bullish atmosphere in the commodity futures market and increased the bearish sentiment. Currently, the supply - demand structure of the crude oil market is strong on both sides, and macro sentiment is dominant [5]. Forecast - It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract will maintain an oscillation - weak trend on Monday this week [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price rose first and then fell, showing an inverted V-shaped trend. The upward movement was due to market concerns about the US tariff node on August 1st and the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of July. However, positive trade signals from the US, Japan, Europe, and China reduced trade policy uncertainty, increasing market risk appetite and pressuring the gold price. Currently, the gold price is at a low level of oscillation since the second quarter, and the battle between bulls and bears at the $3300 mark can be observed [5][27]. - In the long term, since the second quarter, the gold price has been oscillating at a high level. Even the tense situation in the Middle East has not pushed the gold price to break through, indicating significant upward pressure. In the medium to long term, after the relaxation of US tariff policies and the easing of Sino-US relations, the market risk appetite has increased, the equity market has performed well, and the gold price has been under pressure, with the gold-silver ratio continuing to weaken. It is expected that the gold price will maintain an oscillating trend, and a straddle option combination can be considered. In the short term, attention can be paid to the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of July and the latest US tariff policy on August 1st, which may impact the short-term market [5][27]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report presents a graph of the linkage between the US dollar index and the COMEX gold futures closing price [8]. 1.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | July 25 | July 18 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $3,338.50 | $3,355.50 | -0.51% | | COMEX Silver | $38.33 | $38.43 | -0.26% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 777.32 | 777.02 | 0.04% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 9,392.00 | 9,273.00 | 1.28% | | US Dollar Index | 97.67 | 98.47 | -0.82% | | US Dollar against Offshore RMB | 7.17 | 7.18 | -0.18% | | 10-Year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.96 | 2.03 | -0.07 | | S&P 500 | 6,388.64 | 6,296.79 | 1.46% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $65.07 | $67.30 | -3.31% | | COMEX Gold-Silver Ratio | 87.11 | 87.33 | -0.25% | | SHFE Gold-Silver Ratio | 82.76 | 83.79 | -1.23% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 957.09 | 943.63 | 13.46 | | iShare Gold ETF | 449.60 | 446.96 | 2.64 | [9] 2. Gold Price Maintains Oscillating Trend - Last week, the gold price rose first and then fell, corresponding to a bottoming-out and rebound of the US dollar index, while the US Treasury yield remained weak. Positive trade policy signals from the US, Japan, and Europe reduced the short-term safe-haven demand for gold [11]. - The US stock market remained strong last week, with high market risk appetite, which pressured the gold price [13]. 3. Other Indicator Tracking - Since late May, the net long position of non-commercial traders on COMEX has been rising. As of July 22, compared with the previous week, the long position changed by 41,722 contracts, the short position by 1,799 contracts, and the net long position by 39,923 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the precious metal price trend than the gold ETF, but its update frequency is low and timeliness is poor [15]. - Since late May, the gold ETF has been climbing. In early June, the silver price rose significantly, with obvious ETF inflows, showing a combination of rising volume and price. After silver broke through the high in May 2024, capital attention increased rapidly, and it is expected to maintain its strength [17]. - Last week, the silver price rose first and then fell. In the first half of the week, the New York silver price approached $40 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver price reached 9,500 yuan per kilogram. As the gold price fell, the silver price also declined, and the gold-silver ratio rebounded slightly [20]. 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the short - and long - term trends of the gold price and suggesting attention to relevant events and investment strategies [5][27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Copper: Last week, copper prices rose and then fell, with strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions. The inventory of electrolytic copper is low in China and high overseas, and the pattern of stronger domestic prices may continue. With the domestic downstream in the off - season and slower inventory depletion, and continuously improving macro - expectations, the futures prices may maintain a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. In the short term, focus on the long - short game at the 79,000 RMB mark of SHFE copper. In the third quarter, with reduced uncertainty in US trade policies and continuously rising global macro - expectations, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [2]. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices also rose and then fell, with strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions. In the industrial aspect, it is the off - season for downstream industries, the operating rate has declined, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased. Against the backdrop of favorable domestic and overseas macro - conditions and high market risk appetite, the macro - environment strongly supports non - ferrous metals. With positive macro - factors and negative industrial factors, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, and the futures prices will also show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - Overseas: Gold prices continued to fall in the second half of the week, and silver and copper may have also been significantly affected and declined. - Domestic: The domestic market atmosphere was good last week, with commodities generally rising. In the first half of the week, the non - ferrous metal sector rose across the board, but in the second half, the long - short game intensified, the market showed obvious differentiation, and the non - ferrous metal sector showed a downward trend with reduced positions [7]. 3.2 Copper - **Quantity and Price Trends**: Copper prices rose and then fell last week. SHFE copper once touched the 80,000 RMB mark, and LME copper once approached the 10,000 US - dollar mark. There was a strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions, and the futures prices may maintain a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [2]. - **Continuous Decline in Copper Ore Processing Fees**: Since January, copper ore processing fees have been continuously decreasing, reflecting both the tight supply of copper ore and the over - capacity of smelting. The port inventory of domestic copper ore is similar to that of the same period last year, indicating an expected tight supply at the domestic mine end, and the low TC is mainly due to over - capacity in smelting [21]. - **Slower Depletion of Electrolytic Copper Inventory**: The depletion of domestic electrolytic copper inventory has slowed down, and the inventory is low in China and high overseas [2]. - **Downstream Initial Stage**: The monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream industries is provided in the report, but no specific analysis is given [29]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Quantity and Price Trends**: Aluminum prices rose and then fell last week, and the main contract price of SHFE aluminum once touched the 21,000 RMB mark. There was a strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions after the price approached 21,000 RMB [3]. - **Upstream Industrial Chain**: Information on the port inventory of bauxite and the price of alumina is provided, but no specific analysis is given [39]. - **Accumulation of Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased, and the overseas inventory is also shown in the report [3]. - **Downstream Initial Stage**: The capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods and the processing fees and inventory of 6063 aluminum rods are provided, but no specific analysis is given [47]. 3.4 Conclusion - Copper: In the short term, focus on the long - short game at the 79,000 RMB mark of SHFE copper. In the third quarter, with reduced uncertainty in US trade policies and continuously rising global macro - expectations, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. - Aluminum: With positive macro - factors and negative industrial factors, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, and the futures prices will show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [54].

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 下跌 | 震荡 偏强 | 下跌 | 震荡调整 | 乐观情绪释放，焦煤向下调整 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 下跌 | 震荡 偏强 | 下跌 | 震荡调整 | 市场波动加大，焦炭短线回调 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 7 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：震荡偏强 参考观点：震荡调整 核心逻辑：据钢联统计，截至 7 月 25 日当周，全国 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that the iron ore price will continue to adjust at a high level. The short - term and intraday view of iron ore 2509 is "oscillating weakly", and the medium - term view is "oscillating". It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is changing, which leads to the continuous adjustment of the ore price [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Variety View Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term view is "oscillating weakly", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday view is also "oscillating weakly". It is advisable to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the changing supply - demand pattern and the continuous adjustment of the ore price [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The market sentiment has changed as coking coal and coke, the leading varieties on the night session last Friday, started to adjust, causing the high - priced iron ore to continue to decline. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is changing. Steel mill production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has declined but remains at a high level. Steel mills have good profitability, and the ore demand has strong resilience, which provides some support for the ore price. - Although the arrival of ore at domestic ports has declined as expected and there will be no short - term increase, the shipments of overseas miners have started to rise, and there is a strong expectation of an increase due to the high ore price. Coupled with the recovery of domestic ore production, the ore supply will increase from a low level. - Currently, the optimistic sentiment is weakening, and the high - valued ore price is oscillating downward. The relatively positive factor is that the ore fundamentals are still good under the current situation of weak supply and strong demand, so the downward space is limited. Under the guidance of industrial logic, the ore price is expected to continue the high - level adjustment trend, and the performance of finished steel should be monitored [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of IF, IH, IC, IM is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is rising, and the reference view is rising. The short - term of IH2509 is oscillating, the medium - term is rising, the intraday is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is rising [1][5] - The rebound of the stock index is mainly driven by positive policy expectations, and the market sentiment is generally optimistic. The stock index needs a short - term oscillating consolidation period, and in the short term, it is mainly oscillating strongly [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, in the short - term (within a week), it is oscillating; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it is rising; intraday, it is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is rising. The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Quotes Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, IM is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is rising, and the reference view is rising. Last Friday, each stock index mainly oscillated narrowly. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1815.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.4 billion yuan from the previous day. Some stocks have risen significantly since late June, so some profit - taking funds need to stop profits. The rebound of the stock index is driven by positive policy expectations. The domestic policy has boosted the price and profit repair expectations of related industries, and the official start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project has driven the expectation of policy - based support. The current trading volume in the stock market is high, indicating high risk preference of investors [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The market sentiment for thermal coal remains optimistic, and port coal prices are operating strongly. It is expected that coal prices will maintain a strong trend in August [1][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For thermal coal spot, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillation". The core logic is that the market sentiment is optimistic and port coal prices are operating strongly [1]. 3.2 Price Market Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Supply**: As of the period of July 18, the daily average output of raw coal from 462 sample mines nationwide was 5.697 million tons, a slight increase of 10,300 tons per day compared with the end of June. In terms of imports, from July 1 - 14, the seaborne coal arrival volume in China was 10.864 million tons, with an average daily arrival of 776,000 tons, a significant improvement from 608,000 tons per day in June [4]. - **Demand**: In July, the coal consumption of power plants increased seasonally. As of July 17, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 2.419 million tons, a weekly increase of 271,000 tons; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.911 million tons, a weekly increase of 360,000 tons [4]. - **Inventory**: As of July 24, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 27.097 million tons, a weekly increase of 112,000 tons [4]. - **Conclusion**: The peak season and positive news such as "anti - involution" have resonated, driving coal prices to continue rising. With the start of the construction of the super hydropower station on the Yarlung Zangbo River, the market sentiment remains optimistic [4].