投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-02-06 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.3 | 49.0 | 49.1 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 49.4 | 50.1 | 50.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M1:同比 | % | 3.8 | 7.2 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2603 is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of shock consolidation due to the decreased possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the overall view is shock consolidation. Although the latest macroeconomic indicators are weak, there is a need for a loose monetary and credit environment and the expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, and the demand for bond investment is boosted by risk - aversion. However, due to the structural interest rate cut in January and the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, the short - term possibility of the central bank's comprehensive interest rate cut is low, so the bond futures will mainly fluctuate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the variety TL2603, the short - term is shock, the medium - term is shock, the intraday is weak, and the view reference is shock consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that bond futures rebounded yesterday. The weakening of macroeconomic indicators implies concerns in the demand side, so there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts and strong support for bond futures. The intensified disturbance of the Fed's monetary policy expectation and the volatility of silver also boost the demand for bond investment. But due to the structural interest rate cut in January and the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, the short - term possibility of the central bank's comprehensive interest rate cut is low, and the upward momentum of bond futures is insufficient [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 2 月 6 日） 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局变化不大，钢厂生产趋稳，矿石终端消耗小幅回升，但钢市产业矛盾不断累积， 需求弱势格局延续，矿价继续承压。与此同时，国内港口到货量低位回升，且矿商发运量持续增加， 海外矿石供应开始企稳，而内矿供应表现平稳，叠加矿石库存高企，供应压力偏大。总之，高库存叠 加矿商发运企稳回升，矿石供应压力未退，而需求表现弱稳，铁矿石基本面依然偏弱，现实逻辑主导 下预计矿价继续承压偏弱运行，关注矿商发运情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | - ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 2 月 6 日） 品种观点参考 期货研究报告 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：市场对中国采购美豆的预期以及美国生物柴油税收抵免政策落地提振了美豆油需求，为市场注 入乐观情绪，支撑美豆价格。但全球大豆供应充裕的基本面压力更为沉重，成为压制价格的核心力量。巴 西大豆丰产预期持续强化，且收割进度快于往年，意味着未来数月进口大豆到港量将维持高位。国内港口 及油厂大豆、豆粕库存同比近乎翻倍，处于历史高位，而下游养殖业普遍亏损，且春节前备货已近尾声， 需求疲软。短期来看，市场缺乏 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 2 月 6 日） 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端均走弱，假期临近建筑钢厂有所减产，螺纹周产量环比下降，供应如期收缩， 但库存水平高位去年农历同期，压力缓解有限，关注后续变化。与此同时，螺纹钢需求持续走弱， 高频需求指标均下降且继续位于近年来农历同期最低，而下游行业未见好转，弱势格局未变，仍将 拖累钢价。目前来看，螺纹钢供需两端均走弱，基本面弱势格局未变，淡季钢价继续承压，相对利 好则是成本支撑，预计走势延续低位震荡运行为主，关注假期累库情况。 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating of the Industry - No information provided about the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock market risk preference is cautious, and the stock index will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. In the long - run, the logic of the stock index's upward movement is relatively reliable due to favorable policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market. However, in the short - term, the "weak reality" pressure of the macro - economy and the weakening of risk preference caused by silver have led to a cautious turn in the stock market sentiment [5] Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2603 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "relatively strong", the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation", and the core logic is that the risk preference of the stock market is cautiously optimistic [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is "relatively strong", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". Yesterday, the stock indexes fluctuated and pulled back. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2194.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 309 billion yuan from the previous day. The sharp decline of silver weakened the market risk preference, making stock market funds more cautious and increasing the willingness of funds to take profits and leave the market, resulting in continuous shrinkage of trading volume. In the long - run, the positive policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market remain unchanged. But in the short - term, the "weak reality" pressure of the macro - economy and the weakening of risk preference caused by silver have led to a cautious turn in the stock market sentiment. Future attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of policy benefits and the flow of funds [5]

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 弱势 | 观望 | 短期恐慌抛售暂缓，去美元化长 期趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2603 | 强势 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 缩 | 短期恐慌抛售暂缓，国内供应收 | 说明： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：弱势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨日白银再度走弱，跌破本周二低点，黄金也跟随下挫，纽约 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 甲醇供应压力较大 宝城期货 陈栋 受益于中东地缘风险升温，外部进口预期下降，国内港口高库存缓解，去化节奏有所加快。同时下游 烯烃需求维持弱复苏，供需结构略有改善。在偏多因素驱动下，1 月下旬以来，国内甲醇期货 2605 合约呈 现震荡上行的走势，期价摆脱 2200-2300 元/吨箱体区间束缚，一度走高至 2394 元/吨一线。不过随着地缘 风险弱化，甲醇期货开始回吐溢价，预计后市甲醇期货走势或由供需基本面所主导。 地缘风险弱化 甲醇回吐溢价 伊朗作为全球甲醇出口核心国，其局势紧张通过供应收缩、物流受阻、成本抬升、情绪溢价四大路径 传导至国内市场，成为今年 1 月下旬以来国内甲醇期货波动的核心变量。首先，伊朗甲醇产能超 1500 万 吨/年，2026 年 1 月受冬季限气叠加地缘局势双重影响，90%以上装置停车检修，8 条生产线全面停运，涉 及产能 1300 万吨/年，日均产量降至 6000 吨以下，产量和出口能力大幅萎缩。叠加美国对伊朗甲醇运输船 实施制裁，海运物流受阻，船期延迟，致使伊朗甲醇到港成本进一步抬升，供应紧张预期增强。其次， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On February 5, 2026, all stock indices fluctuated and pulled back. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.1943 trillion yuan, a decrease of 309 billion yuan from the previous day. The sharp decline in silver led to a weakening of market risk appetite, making stock market funds more cautious and increasing the willingness of funds to take profits and leave the market. The trading volume of the stock market continued to shrink. In the long - term, the positive policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market remain unchanged, and the logic of the long - term upward movement of stock indices is relatively solid. However, in the short - term, macroeconomic indicators have weakened, and the "weak reality" pressure has emerged. Coupled with the weakening of risk appetite caused by silver, the sentiment of the stock market has turned cautious in the short term. In the future, as the sentiment in the commodity market recovers, the risk appetite of the stock market will return to its own fundamental logic. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of policy benefits and the flow of funds. In general, the risk appetite of the stock market is cautious in the short term, and stock indices will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. For options, since the long - term upward logic of stock indices is relatively solid, a bull spread strategy can be considered [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1 Option Indicators - On February 5, 2026, 50ETF fell 0.32% to close at 3.137; 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.59% to close at 4.679; 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.49% to close at 4.877; CSI 300 Index fell 0.60% to close at 4670.42; CSI 1000 Index fell 1.69% to close at 8068.08; 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 2.04% to close at 8.217; 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 1.92% to close at 3.267; GEM ETF fell 1.79% to close at 3.238; Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.58% to close at 3.450; SSE 50 Index fell 0.33% to close at 3059.01; STAR 50ETF fell 1.50% to close at 1.51; E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 1.55% to close at 1.46 [5]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on February 5, 2026, and their changes compared with the previous trading day are provided. For example, the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 96.08 (previous trading day: 86.73), and the position PCR was 73.59 (previous trading day: 74.46) [6]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in February 2026 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are given. For instance, the implied volatility of at - the - money options of SSE 50ETF options in February 2026 was 13.47%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 14.38% [7]. 2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Include charts of the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [9][11][13][15][17]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Include charts of the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [19][21][20][20][21]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Include charts of the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [22][24][26][30][28][31]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Include charts of the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [34][35][36][40][38][42]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Include charts of the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [44][45][48][50][53][56]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [58][64][60][66][62][68]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [71][77][73][79][75][82]. - **GEM ETF Options**: Include charts of the GEM ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [84][92][86][90][88][91]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Include charts of the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [94][100][96][102][98][105]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Include charts of the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [107][113][109][115][111][118]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [120][129][123][125][127][128]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [130][133][131][131][132][132].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 5 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货震荡调整为主 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡反弹。由于最新的宏观经济指标有所走弱，说明需 求端仍存隐忧，未来需要偏宽松的货币信用环境，降息预期仍存，国债期货 具有较强支撑。叠加近期海外美联储货币政策预期扰动加剧，白银波动剧 烈，避险情绪提振国债投资需求。不过央行 1 月份实施了结构性降息，加上 美联储降息预期放缓，短期内央行全面降息的可能性不高，国债期货的上行 动能有所不足。总的来说，短期内国债期货震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到 ...