期货研究报告 股指延续震荡整理 核心观点 今日各股指均震荡整理。全市场成交额 30547 亿元，较上日成交额 放量 1163 亿元。股市成交金额回落至 3 万亿附近，说明股市乐观情绪有 所降温，监管层降杠杆、控风险的政策信号被市场吸收。年初以来，股 市涨幅主要来自于流动性宽松下估值端的抬升，从宏观经济指标来看业 绩端修复预期并不强烈，市场分歧导致多空博弈加剧，因此本轮大幅反 弹之后股指存在震荡整固的需求，短线上股指波动将有所加剧。中长期 来看，政策面利好预期以及增量资金持续净流入股市的趋势不变，股指中长 期上行的主要逻辑不变。总的来说，预计短期内股指延续震荡整理。 期权方面，由于股指中长期上行的逻辑较为牢靠，可以牛市价差的思 路对待。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 金融期权 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 16 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业 ...

Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar rose 0.06% after hitting a high and falling back, with increasing volume and open interest. Given the weak demand, stable supply, and weakening commodity sentiment, rebar prices are expected to face pressure and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil oscillated, rising 0.33% with increasing volume and open interest. Although the demand for hot-rolled coil is resilient and the fundamentals are stable, the supply is at a high level and there are concerns about demand. If demand weakens, industrial contradictions may accumulate, and prices may face pressure. In the short term, prices will maintain an oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated weakly, falling 0.49% with increasing volume and decreasing open interest. Despite positive commodity sentiment and lingering bullish factors, the supply of iron ore is high while demand is weakly stable. The fundamentals are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. Ore prices will oscillate at a high level, and there is a risk of prices weakening if the trading logic switches to the industrial side. Attention should be paid to steel mill restocking [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - The Financial Regulatory Administration aims to promote the regular operation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, resolve risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions, and prevent and resolve risks in related fields [7]. - In December 2025, the sales of various excavators reached 23,095 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%. In 2025, a total of 235,257 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 17% [8]. - The government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is restarting a $29 billion iron ore export development plan, aiming to build a comprehensive mining and infrastructure project in the northern region, with an initial planned annual export capacity of about 50 million tons [9]. 2. Spot Market - In the spot market, prices and price changes are provided for rebar, hot-rolled coil, Tangshan billet, Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, PB fines, Tangshan iron concentrate, freight rates, SGX swaps, and iron ore price indexes [10]. 3. Futures Market - In the futures market, the relevant information of the main contracts of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore, including closing price, price change percentage, high and low price, trading volume, change in trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest, is presented [12]. 4. Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil [14][15][20]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, including inventory changes, seasonal patterns, inventory of 247 steel mills, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [22][23][26]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, proportion of profitable steel mills, independent electric furnace operating rate, and profit and loss situation of steel mills [29][31][32]. 5. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply is weakly stable, and there is a possibility of increased production. Demand has improved but remains at a low level, and prices are expected to face pressure and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [37]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Supply is at a high level, and there are concerns about demand. The short-term trend will be oscillating, and attention should be paid to demand performance [37]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is high, and demand is weakly stable. Ore prices will oscillate at a high level, and there is a risk of prices weakening if the trading logic switches to the industrial side. Attention should be paid to steel mill restocking [38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is in a weak operation. The closing price of the main contract LC2605.GFE is 146,200 yuan/ton, down 17,020 yuan/ton from the previous day, showing an overall upward trend in the past 10 trading days. The spot price of lithium carbonate is 157,850 yuan/ton, down 0.67% from the previous day, also showing an overall upward trend in the past 10 trading days. The current basis is 4,730 points, a positive basis (spot premium), which has strengthened by 6,450 points from the previous day, and the basis has strengthened overall in the past 10 trading days. The registered warehouse receipt volume of lithium carbonate is 27,458 lots, an increase of 253 lots (+0.93%) from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts have increased overall in the past 10 trading days. The production of energy storage cells remains resilient [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract is 146,200 yuan/ton, down 17,020 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 2,780 yuan/ton from the previous week; the settlement price of the main contract is 153,120 yuan/ton, down 7,520 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 9,940 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The prices of Australian, Brazilian, Zimbabwean, and Malian lithium spodumene concentrates imported into China have different degrees of decline or increase compared with the previous week. The average price of South African lithium spodumene raw ore and the average prices of lithium mica with different Li₂O contents in China also have corresponding price changes [6]. - **Lithium Salt Prices**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric-grade lithium carbonate is 157,850 yuan/ton, down 1,070 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 17,810 yuan/ton from the previous week. The prices of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide and related products also have different degrees of decline or increase compared with the previous day and the previous week [6]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of some ternary precursors, ternary materials, and other products have increased, while the prices of some products such as electrolyte and lithium hexafluorophosphate have remained unchanged or decreased [6]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: Include lithium mica price change chart, lithium carbonate futures main price chart, lithium carbonate price chart, lithium hydroxide price chart, lithium carbonate basis chart, and lithium hydroxide - lithium carbonate price difference chart [8]. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: Include the price charts of manganese - acid lithium, domestic iron - phosphate lithium, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [11]. - **Other Related Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures**: Include the change charts of the main trading volume, main open interest, and registered warehouse receipt volume of lithium carbonate futures [19][20].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Today, Shanghai copper's main contract price approached the 100,000 RMB mark at the end of the session. The commodity market sentiment weakened, and the non - ferrous sector declined across the board. The traditional downstream is resistant to high copper prices. It is expected that the purchasing demand may recover next week. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 100,000 RMB mark [5]. - Today, Shanghai aluminum's main contract price fell below the 24,000 RMB mark at the end of the session. The commodity market sentiment weakened, and the non - ferrous sector declined across the board. The downstream is cautious about aluminum prices above 24,000 RMB. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues to rise, and the monthly spread continues to weaken. There is strong technical pressure, and attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 24,000 RMB mark [6]. - Today, the nickel price showed a downward trend, and the main contract price fell to the 140,000 RMB mark. The short - term macro - environment cooled, and non - ferrous metals declined across the board. The expectation of supply contraction in Indonesian mines continues to support the price, but the pattern of strong expectation and weak reality in the industry remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 140,000 RMB mark [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Copper - On January 16, the raw material inventory of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises increased by 2.02% week - on - week, and the finished product inventory increased by 5.77% week - on - week. The downstream market is cautious, and the new order volume is still at a low level. The copper cable operating rate decreased by 0.59 percentage points to 55.99% week - on - week, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [9]. Aluminum - On January 16, the total inventory of bauxite in 10 domestic ports decreased by 390,000 tons compared with the previous week [10]. Nickel - On January 16, the upstream quotation of high - nickel pig iron was maintained at 1050 - 1100 RMB/nickel point, and the downstream steel mills' procurement was cautious. The significant price increase does not match the actual demand, and there is little trading in the market [11]. 2. Related Charts Copper - The report provides charts of copper basis, copper monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][16]. Aluminum - The report provides charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum rod inventory [25][27][29]. Nickel - The report provides charts of nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 16 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 向上驱动不足，煤焦低位运行 核心观点 焦炭：截至 1 月 16 日当周，样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量 合计 110.17 万吨，周环比下降 0.28 万吨；247 家钢厂日均铁水产量 228.01 万吨，周环比下降 1.49 万吨。整体来看，焦炭基本面无明显支 撑，原材料焦煤在上周受预期驱动低位反弹过后，本周重回偏弱运行，并 未给焦炭带来持续的成本支撑，在无政策干预的情况下，焦炭期货预计维 持低位震荡格局。 焦煤：截至 1 月 16 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 76.9 万 吨，周环比增 3.5 万吨（本期新增一个调研样本，数据增幅明显）；样本 独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量合计 110.17 万吨，周环比下降 0.28 万吨。整体来看，焦煤维持供需两增局面，基本面无明显好转，且 冬储补库和春节煤矿停产预期已有所发酵，未来煤价上行动能或需依靠政 策驱动。在无政策干预的情况下，春节前煤价或受基本面压制而维持低位 运行。 （仅供参考，不 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In the context of the warming sentiment in the commodity market and the rising cost side, the price of manganese - silicon has recently shown a volatile upward trend. However, due to the lack of substantial improvement in its supply - demand pattern, the upward momentum of the price is limited, and the subsequent trend is likely to turn into a volatile one. Attention should be paid to the price and supply changes in the manganese ore segment [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Performance - Since December last year, the manganese - silicon futures price has shown a volatile upward trend. The price of the main contract once exceeded the 6,000 yuan/ton mark, with a cumulative increase of nearly 5.6% from the low. The spot price also rose synchronously, with the increase range in the mainstream areas being 120 - 300 yuan/ton [2] Cost Factor - The recent continuous strengthening of the manganese - silicon price is driven by two factors: the warm sentiment in the overall commodity market and the significant upward movement of upstream costs. Since October last year, the prices of related resource products have continued to rise strongly. Against this backdrop, the price of manganese ore has also increased. Overseas mainstream manganese ore suppliers have raised their export quotes. The increase in the cost side has directly pushed up the production cost of manganese - silicon. It is expected that the iron ore price will remain firm, and the cost side's support for the manganese - silicon price will continue [3][4] Supply Situation - The supply - demand pattern of manganese - silicon has not improved substantially, as evidenced by the high inventory in enterprises and the slow de - stocking process. As of the week of January 9, the total inventory of domestic manganese - silicon enterprises was 382,500 tons, still at a historical high. The production loss of manganese - silicon enterprises has been narrowing, and the production enthusiasm has gradually stabilized. The new production capacity of the manganese - silicon industry has continued to be put into operation. In 2025, the average monthly production capacity of manganese - silicon was 1.9082 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.23%. In 2026, the to - be - invested production capacity of manganese - silicon is 3.0865 million tons. If this batch of production capacity is put into operation, the industry's over - supply situation will intensify [5][6] Demand Situation - Since 2026, the resumption of work and production in domestic steel mills has continued to advance, and the demand for manganese - silicon has improved marginally. As of the week of January 9, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 domestic steel mills have rebounded, and the production enthusiasm of short - process steel mills has also increased. Driven by this, the domestic steel output has rebounded from the low level, and the demand for manganese - silicon has also improved. However, the subsequent growth space of manganese - silicon demand is worrying due to limited profit - repair of steel mills and the traditional off - season in the steel market [8]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 支撑 | 供需矛盾累积，矿价高位调整 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局持续走弱，库存大幅增加，钢厂生产弱稳，矿石终端消耗小幅回落，且钢厂盈利 状况改善有限，叠加淡季钢市矛盾累积，矿石需求表现偏弱，相对利好的则是节前钢厂有所补库。与 此同时，国内港口到货持续回升，而矿商发运小幅减量，继续位于相对高位，海外矿石供应相对积极 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for hot-rolled coils shows some resilience, and the fundamentals are operating smoothly. However, the supply is still at a high level, and there are concerns about demand. Once the demand weakens, industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate, and prices are likely to come under pressure. In the short term, the price trend will maintain a volatile state, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils is 303.36 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.15 tons. The supply has shrunk again but is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory is significantly higher than in previous years, resulting in large supply pressure and potential downward pressure on steel prices [2]. - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.48%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.56 percentage points [2]. Demand - The apparent weekly demand for hot-rolled coils is 309.38 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.04 tons. The demand shows some resilience. The high output of downstream cold-rolled products provides support for the demand for hot-rolled coils, but there are concerns as contradictions in the cold-rolled market are accumulating and exports are average [2][3]. - The weekly output of cold-rolled coils is 88.67 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.17 tons, but still at a high level [2]. Inventory - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils is 362.11 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 6.02 tons, and the inventory reduction has expanded [2]. - The in-plant inventory is 76.53 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.79 tons [2]. - The social inventory is 285.58 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.23 tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly with an oscillatory pattern in the short - term and medium - term, and show a weak trend intraday on January 16, 2026 [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of running weakly [1][5] - **Core Logic**: After Thailand and Cambodia declared a cease - fire, the expected decline in Southeast Asian rubber supply due to geopolitical risks disappeared, weakening the bullish drive. Domestic Yunnan and Hainan rubber - producing areas are in the off - season, reducing domestic supply pressure, while Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the December heavy - truck sales data are better than expected. With the weakening of the rally in the energy and chemical sector, Shanghai rubber futures maintained a weak oscillatory pattern on Thursday night and are expected to continue this way on Friday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of running weakly [1][7] - **Core Logic**: Due to the tight supply of northern goods and downstream replenishment demand, the spot price of butadiene has risen significantly. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, leading to some production cuts or shutdowns, reducing the supply expectation. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the December heavy - truck sales data are better than expected. Coupled with the oscillatory and strong pattern of crude oil futures, the cost support has been enhanced. With the weakening of the rally in the energy and chemical sector, synthetic rubber futures showed a high - level correction on Thursday night and are expected to maintain a weak oscillatory pattern on Friday [7]

3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 1 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期全面降息可能性下降 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡整理。消息面，央行公布了 12 月新增信贷数据，居民部门新增信贷 表现仍偏弱，企业部门新增信贷有所改善；且央行决定下调再贷款、再贴现利率，引导金融机构加大 ...