1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken, with a significant increase in inventory, weak and stable steel mill production, and a decline in terminal ore consumption. This week, the average daily hot - metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly month - on - month, and the improvement in steel mill profitability is limited. Coupled with the accumulation of contradictions in the steel market during the off - season, ore demand will remain weak, although steel mills will replenish stocks before the festival. Meanwhile, port arrivals continue to increase, while miner shipments decline slightly. Both are at relatively high levels, overseas ore supply is relatively active, and domestic ore supply has recovered, so ore supply remains high. With a warm commodity sentiment and lingering positive factors, the ore price is operating in a high - level range. However, due to the high supply and weak and stable demand, the fundamentals are weak and the upward driving force is not strong. The ore price shows a high - level oscillation pattern under the game of multiple and short factors. Be cautious of the trading logic switching to the industrial end, when the ore price is likely to be under pressure again. Pay attention to the stock - replenishing situation of steel mills [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 16,555.10, with a week - on - week increase of 279.84, a month - to - date increase of 584.21, and a year - on - year increase of 1,692.04 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar. The 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 9,262.22, with a week - on - week increase of 272.63, a month - to - date increase of 315.68, and a year - on - year decrease of 381.90 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar [1] Supply - The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 domestic ports is 2,920.40, with a week - on - week increase of 164.00, a month - to - date increase of 319.00, and a year - on - year increase of 781.90 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar. The global iron ore shipment volume is 3,180.90, with a week - on - week decrease of 32.80, a month - to - date decrease of 496.22, and a year - on - year increase of 189.30 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar [1] Demand - The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is 228.01, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.49, a month - to - date increase of 0.58, and a year - on - year increase of 0.14 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar. The 45 - port average daily ore removal volume is 319.89, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.38, a month - to - date decrease of 5.32, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.32 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar. The 247 steel mills' imported ore daily consumption is 281.84, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.44, a month - to - date increase of 1.17, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.74 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar. The weekly average of iron ore transactions at major ports is 95.13, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.21, a month - to - date increase of 14.45, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.09 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar [1]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly data analysis of rebar futures, covering the period up to January 16, 2026 [1] Core Viewpoint - Rebar demand has improved slightly, but the weak demand pattern remains unchanged due to the lack of improvement in downstream industries The supply is weakly stable, and the fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness The steel price is under pressure in the off - season, and is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, with attention paid to the production situation of steel mills [11] Data Summary Supply - Weekly production is 190.30, with a week - on - week change of - 0.74, a month - on - month change of 2.08, and a year - on - year change of - 26.00 compared to the same period last year The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.48%, with a week - on - week change of - 0.56, a month - on - month change of 0.22, and a year - on - year change of - 0.07 [12] Demand - Apparent demand is 190.34, with a week - on - week increase of 15.38, a month - on - month decrease of - 10.10, and a year - on - year decrease of - 29.24 The weekly average of steel union building materials transactions is 9.11, with a week - on - week change of - 0.53, a month - on - month change of - 0.51, and a year - on - year change of - 1.79 [12] Inventory - Total inventory is 438.07, with a week - on - week change of - 0.04, a month - on - month change of 16.04, and a year - on - year change of 38.33 Factory inventory is 142.66, with a week - on - week change of - 5.27, a month - on - month change of 3.29, and a year - on - year change of 21.13 Social inventory is 295.41, with a week - on - week change of 5.23, a month - on - month change of 12.75, and a year - on - year change of 17.20 [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the MA10 support level. The fundamental situation is weak, and steel prices are under pressure in the off - season [2]. - Rebar prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at low levels, and it is necessary to pay attention to the production situation of steel mills [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, short - term, medium - term trends are "volatile", and the intraday trend is "weakly volatile". The reference view is to pay attention to the MA10 support, with the core logic being the weak fundamental operation and the pressure on steel prices in the off - season [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand sides of rebar have changed. The production of construction steel mills has stabilized, and rebar supply has slightly declined. However, the profit per ton of the product is acceptable, so the supply contraction is unlikely to continue. Meanwhile, rebar demand has improved, with the weekly apparent demand increasing month - on - month, but the high - frequency daily trading volume is sluggish. Both supply and demand are still at the low levels of the same period in recent years. Considering the unchanged situation in downstream industries, demand will continue to decline seasonally, dragging down steel prices. The overall fundamental situation continues the seasonal weakness, and steel prices in the off - season are under pressure [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to be strong in the long - term, with short - term shocks and a medium - term strong trend, and an intraday slightly strong trend. Copper is also expected to be strong in the long - term, with short - term shocks, a medium - term strong trend, and an intraday slightly weak trend [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, New York gold oscillated narrowly around $4,600, and Shanghai gold oscillated above 1,030 yuan. Since this week, New York silver has risen by about 14%, while New York gold has only risen by about 2%, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly to around 50, a 14 - year low [3]. - **Core Logic**: The significant decline in the gold - silver ratio will likely prompt arbitrage funds to flow into gold. The short - term sentiment in the precious metal market is high, especially in the silver market, which can be used as a wind vane. The short - term capital liquidation intention is strong, and attention should be paid to the long - short game at the $4,600 mark of New York gold [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Last night, the copper price rebounded after reaching the bottom, and the trading volume decreased slightly. Since this week, with the continuous rise in silver prices, the rise in copper prices has slowed down significantly, and the trading volume of Shanghai copper has hovered around 700,000 contracts [4]. - **Core Logic**: The cooling of the macro - atmosphere and the decline in silver prices have led to a decline in copper prices, and the short - term long - position liquidation intention is strong. At the industrial level, after the expiration of the 01 contract, the near - month spread has weakened significantly, electrolytic copper has continued to accumulate inventory, and the downstream industry is watching [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-01-16 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 弱势 | 弱势运行 | 地缘风险弱化，原油震荡走弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普频繁释放地缘风险信号，格陵兰岛墨西哥或成为美国下一个夺取和 打击的目标。同时美国威胁或对伊朗展开新一轮军事打击，中东地缘风险再度加剧。随着美国总统 特朗普释放可能暂缓打击伊朗的信号， ...

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The supply and demand pattern of thermal coal has improved, and the expected shutdown of coal mines during the Spring Festival provides supply support, leading to a small upward trend in thermal coal prices after a decline [4] Group 3 Main varieties price market driving logic - Commodity futures black sector - **Variety**: Thermal coal spot - **Intraday view**: Not provided - **Medium - term view**: Oscillation - **Core logic**: In the first week of 2026, domestic thermal coal prices maintained a slight upward trend. At the beginning of the new year, coal mines that had stopped production to meet annual targets resumed production, but the improvement in domestic thermal coal production was limited. With the Spring Festival approaching, the expectation of a phased contraction in thermal coal supply has increased. Recently, the drop in domestic temperatures has accelerated the improvement in coal demand in coastal cities, which is an important factor supporting the port coal market. As of January 8th, the total coal inventory at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 26.713 million tons, a weekly decrease of 1.614 million tons, and 1.781 million tons higher than the same period last year [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term trends of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil futures contracts in 2026 are all expected to be in a state of shock, with an intraday view of shock - weakening [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all shock - weakening, with a reference view of shock - weakening [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The US soybean market is weighing the bearish supply data from the USDA report, potential Chinese procurement demand, and the prospect of a bumper harvest in South American crops. In the domestic market, rapeseed meal is weaker due to improved prospects of rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports. Although pre - holiday stocking has increased soybean meal transactions and the firm Brazilian soybean premium provides some support, the overall supply is loose with high inventory and the resumption of reserve soybean auctions. So, the short - term soybean meal futures price will maintain a shock - weakening trend [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all shock - weakening, with a reference view of shock - weakening [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The core driver is that Indonesia's biofuel policy is less than expected. The cancellation of the B50 plan and maintaining B40 have disappointed the market's optimistic expectations for biodiesel demand. Despite the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and improved exports, the high inventory pressure is difficult to solve in the short term. The large number of new February purchases by China and India to avoid the export tax increase in Indonesia in March have increased the expected domestic arrival, further suppressing prices. Although pre - holiday stocking and structural inventory differences provide some local support, the short - term palm oil will maintain a shock - weakening pattern [7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all shock - weakening, with a reference view of shock - weakening [6]. - **Core Logic**: Factors influencing soybean oil include US soybean cost support, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].

wwo 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 向上驱动不足，焦煤低位运行 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 观望情绪仍存，焦炭低位调整 | 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：1 月 15 日，焦煤主力合约报收 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall view of the stock index is oscillating with a slightly upward trend in the short - term. For IH2603, the short - term and medium - term are both oscillating, and the intraday view is slightly upward, with an overall view of oscillating and slightly upward due to the unchanged policy favorable expectations and the trend of net capital inflow [1][5]. - Although the stock market showed an oscillating consolidation trend with a significant shrinkage in trading volume today, in the long run, the continuous fermentation of policy - side favorable expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market make the logic of the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock index relatively reliable, but the short - term rhythm is uncertain and the intraday fluctuations will intensify [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is slightly upward, and the overall view is oscillating and slightly upward. The core logic is the unchanged policy favorable expectations and the trend of net capital inflow [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is slightly upward, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating and slightly upward. - Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and consolidated. The total market turnover was 291.13 billion yuan, a decrease of 107.54 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The significant shrinkage in trading volume today indicates that investors have realized the policy intention of the regulatory authorities to reduce leverage and control risks, and the risk preference of investors has decreased. - Due to the obvious increase in the valuation of some stocks since this year while the performance repair is not strong, the profit - making funds have the need for "high - low switching", showing an oscillating consolidation market. - In the long run, the continuous fermentation of policy - side favorable expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market make the logic of the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock index relatively reliable, but the short - term rhythm is uncertain and the intraday fluctuations will intensify [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-01-16 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-10-20 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.8 | 5.2 | 4.6 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 50.2 | 50.0 | 52.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M1:同比 | % | 3.8 | 7.2 ...