产业矛盾累积，钢矿承压走弱 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 5 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.29%日跌幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 螺纹钢供需两端均走弱，基本面弱势格局未变，淡季钢价继续承压，相 对利好则是成本支撑，预计走势延续低位震荡运行为主，关注假期累库 情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.40%日跌幅，量缩仓增。目前来 看，热卷供应高位，而需求有所走弱，基本面表现偏弱，热卷价格仍将 承压低位震荡运行，且需谨防需求走弱矛盾激化带来压力，关 ...

宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 5 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空交织，煤焦窄幅震荡 作者声明 核心观点 焦炭：2 月 05 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1738 元/吨，日内录得 0.77%的跌 幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 3.65 万手，较前一交易日仓差为-3251 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1520 元/吨，周环比上涨 3.40%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1480 元/吨， 周环比上涨 2.07%。当前，焦炭基本面无明显向上驱动，需求端中长期担 忧依然存在，压制焦炭期货低位运行，但 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 5 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色减仓下行 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜持续减仓下行，主力期价一度逼近 10 万关口，午后震荡 企稳。从盘面来看，白银日内再度大幅下挫，导致整体盘面情绪走 差，有色普跌。产业层面，SMM 报道：铜价走弱下游备货情绪得到一 定提振，且由于北方地区电解铜货源持续南下，同时春节将至物流 趋于紧张，持货商挺价情绪渐强，现货升贴水逐步抬升。短期关注 10 万关口多空博弈。 沪铝 今日沪铝持续减仓下行。从盘面来看，白银日内再度大幅下挫， 导 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 5 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂弱势运行 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 132780 元/吨，较前日 下跌 14440 元/吨，近 10 个交易日整体呈现下降走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 143880 元/吨，较前日下跌 5.91%，近 10 个交易日整体呈现下降走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为 7160 点，正基差（现货升水），较前日 走强 2900 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走强。 【仓单情况】碳酸锂注册仓单量为 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-05 品种晨会纪要 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险升温，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普频繁释放地缘风险信号，格陵兰岛、加拿大或成为美国下一个夺取 和打击的目标。经历短期大幅回调以后，油市利空情绪得到释放。由于中东地缘风险依然存在，且 北半球处在冬季用油旺季阶段，偏多氛 ...

宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2026 年 2 月 5 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | | （元/吨） | | 动力煤 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | | | 9月-1月 9月-5月 | | | 5月-1月 | | 2026/02/04 | -109 | 4 . | | 0 0 0 0 0 . . | 0 . | | | | 2026/02/03 | -109 | 4 . | | 0 0 0 0 0 . . | 0 . | | | | 2026/02/02 | -109 | 4 . | | 0 0 0 0 0 . . | 0 . | | | | 2026/01/30 | -109 | 4 . | | 0 0 0 0 0 . . | 0 . | | | | 2026/01/29 | -109 | 4 . | 0 | 0 0 0 0 0 . . | | | . | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 期货研 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-02-05 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.3 | 49.0 | 49.1 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 49.4 | 50.1 | 50.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M1:同比 | % | 3.8 | 7.2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the TL2603 variety is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday view is "weakening". The overall view is "oscillation and consolidation" because the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". Due to the central bank's structural interest rate cut in January and the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut by the central bank is low, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for Treasury bond futures. However, the latest macroeconomic indicators have weakened, indicating potential problems on the demand side, and there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term is "oscillating", the medium - term is "oscillating", the intraday is "weakening", and the view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back yesterday. The central bank's structural interest rate cut in January and the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations reduce the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut, resulting in insufficient upward momentum. But the weakening of macroeconomic indicators implies potential problems on the demand side, so the expectation of an interest rate cut still exists, providing support. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5].

品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏空情绪消化，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏空情绪消化，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-02-05 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：目前国内云南和海南天胶产区已进入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，而东 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk preference of the stock market is cautiously optimistic, and the stock index will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. In the long - term, the logic of the upward movement of the stock index is relatively solid due to favorable policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds. In the short - term, due to the weakening of macro - economic indicators, the "weak reality" pressure appears, and the willingness of the capital side to take profits and leave the market has increased, resulting in a decrease in trading volume. [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "bullish", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the risk preference of the stock market is cautiously optimistic. [1] 2. Price and Market Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is "bullish", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the stock indexes oscillated and consolidated yesterday. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2503.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 62.4 billion yuan from the previous day. In the long - term, the upward logic of the stock index is solid. In the short - term, there is "weak reality" pressure, and the capital side has a stronger willingness to take profits and leave the market. As the sentiment in the commodity market recovers, the risk preference of the stock market returns to its fundamental logic. [5]