Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Financial Options Daily Report Group 2: Core Views - Today, all stock indices fluctuated and rose. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets throughout the day was 2.1781 trillion yuan, an increase of 12 billion yuan from the previous day [3]. - The Politburo of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on September 29 to study major issues in formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. The expectation of policy benefits continued to ferment. The market focused on short - term stable demand policies and medium - to - long - term strategic industrial layout [3]. - In the medium - to - long term, the expectation of policy benefits and the long - term net inflow trend of funds constitute the medium - to - long - term driving force for the upward movement of stock indices. In the short term, due to the significant increase in the stock valuation, especially when the index rebounded near the previous high, the profit - taking demand of profitable funds increased. Considering the uncertainty during the National Day holiday, the upward momentum of the stock index before the holiday was relatively limited [3]. - In the future, the key factor is the game between the profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations. In general, due to the index approaching the previous high and the approaching of the long holiday, the stock index is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [3]. - Currently, the implied volatility of options has declined. Considering the medium - to - long - term upward trend of the stock index, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads [3]. Group 3: Option Indicators Index and ETF Performance - On September 29, 2025, the 50ETF rose 1.04% to close at 3.109; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 1.66% to close at 4.728; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.67% to close at 4.880; the CSI 300 Index rose 1.54% to close at 4620.05; the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.36% to close at 7497.83; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 1.72% to close at 7.462; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.57% to close at 2.980; the ChiNext ETF rose 2.68% to close at 3.213; the SZSE 100ETF rose 2.24% to close at 3.608; the SSE 50 Index rose 1.09% to close at 2973.04; the STAR 50ETF rose 1.25% to close at 1.54; the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 1.14% to close at 1.51 [5]. Volume PCR and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open interest PCR data of various options on September 29, 2025, and the previous trading day are provided, including data for 50ETF options, 300ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen), CSI 300 index options, CSI 1000 index options, 500ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen), ChiNext ETF options, SZSE 100ETF options, SSE 50 index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [6]. Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility - The implied volatility of the at - the - money options in October 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets for various options are presented, such as the 50ETF options, 300ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen), CSI 300 index options, CSI 1000 index options, 500ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen), ChiNext ETF options, SZSE 100ETF options, SSE 50 index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [7][8]. Group 4: Related Charts 50ETF Options - Charts include the 50ETF trend, 50ETF option volatility, 50ETF option volume PCR, 50ETF option open interest PCR, 50ETF option implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied implied 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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Coke**: As of the week ending September 26, the combined daily average coke output of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1127,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 590 tons. The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton, with the loss widening by 17 yuan/ton, suppressing coking enterprises' production enthusiasm. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2,423,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1340 tons. Coke inventory shifted downstream this week, with inventory at upstream independent coking plants and intermediate ports decreasing, while the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased significantly by 166,400 tons to 6,613,100 tons, and the total industrial chain coke inventory increased by 52,300 tons to 9,204,100 tons. Overall, the fundamental driving force for coke is limited, policy uncertainty has decreased, market wait - and - see sentiment has increased, and pre - holiday capital outflows have led to the weak operation of coke futures [5][34]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending September 26, the daily average clean coal output of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 772,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,000 tons, but 25,000 tons lower than the same period last year. At the import end, the number of Mongolian coal trucks passing through the 288 port continued to rise, approaching 8000 trucks per week. On the demand side, the combined daily average coke output of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1127,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 590 tons. In terms of inventory, the coking coal inventory of independent coking plants rebounded significantly by 586,600 tons to 9,990,700 tons, and the coking coal inventory of steel mills increased by 57,300 tons to 7,960,700 tons, indicating that the downstream's pre - holiday restocking demand was fulfilled. Overall, the upward driving force for coking coal futures is limited. With the approaching National Day holiday, market wait - and - see sentiment has increased, and pre - holiday capital outflows have led to the weak operation of coking coal futures [6][35]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs **I. Industry News** - Three coal mines in Xiangning, Linfen are planned to stop production from October 1, for 3 - 7 days with a total production capacity of 11.7 million tons, mainly producing low - sulfur lean coal. The total impact on raw coal production during this period is about 206,000 tons [8]. - On September 29, the price of coking coal in the Anze market of Linfen remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) being 1590 yuan/ton, cash inclusive of tax [9]. **II. Spot Market** | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Standard First - Grade FOB) | 1470 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 6.37% | - 13.02% | - 15.52% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Standard First - Grade Ex - Warehouse) | 1490 yuan/ton | - 0.67% | 0.68% | - 8.02% | - 14.37% | | Coking Coal (Ganjimiao Port Mongolian Coal) | 1280 yuan/ton | 5.79% | 8.47% | 8.47% | - 7.25% | | Coking Coal (Australian - Produced in Jingtang Port) | 1620 yuan/ton | 0.62% | 2.53% | 8.72% | - 2.41% | | Coking Coal (Shanxi - Produced in Jingtang Port) | 1710 yuan/ton | 6.21% | 4.91% | 11.76% | - 2.84% | [10] **III. Futures Market** | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1647.0 | - 4.16 | 1701.0 | 1642.5 | 27,979 | - 1584 | 43,467 | - 1561 | | Coking Coal | - | 1154.0 | - 4.98 | 1194.5 | 1152.5 | 855,255 | 22,510 | 623,075 | - 65,471 | [13] **IV. Relevant Charts** There are various charts showing the inventory of coke and coking coal (such as independent coking plants, steel - mill coking plants, ports, etc.), as well as other related production and consumption data, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [14][20][26] **V. Market Outlook** The analysis of coke and coking coal is the same as the core viewpoints, emphasizing the supply, demand, inventory situation and market trends of coke and coking coal [34][35]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend as the positive impact of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation fades and the rubber market enters a phase dominated by a weak supply - demand structure [5]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 is likely to keep a weak and volatile trend due to the pressure from the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 may maintain a strong and volatile trend considering the enhanced geopolitical risks, such as the continuous attacks on Russian oil facilities by Ukraine and the threat of strong tariff sanctions on Russia by the US [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 46.12 tons, a decrease of 0.36 tons (0.76%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 5.07% and the general trade inventory increased by 0.04% [9]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises was slightly adjusted. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points week - on - week and 6.95 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points week - on - week and 6.27 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - In August 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 57.0%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year - on - year and a decrease of 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The logistics industry prosperity index in August 2025 was 50.9%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [10]. - In August 2025, about 84,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold, a 1% decrease from July and a 35% increase from the same period last year. The cumulative sales volume in the first eight months of 2025 reached 710,000, a 13% increase year - on - year [10]. Methanol - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.51%, a 0.12% increase week - on - week, a 2.80% decrease month - on - month, and a 1.43% decrease compared to the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output was 1.8727 million tons, a significant increase of 59,500 tons week - on - week, a slight decrease of 45,600 tons month - on - month, and an increase of 32,400 tons compared to the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.41%, a 0.13% decrease week - on - week; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 8.20%, a 1.52% increase week - on - week; the acetic acid operating rate was 76.62%, a 0.90% increase week - on - week; the MTBE operating rate was 58.35%, a 0.69% increase week - on - week [11]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 83.03%, a 0.15 - percentage - point increase week - on - week and a 0.70 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. As of September 29, 2025, the futures盘面 profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 180 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan/ton decrease week - on - week and a 71 - yuan/ton decrease month - on - month [11]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.3298 million tons, a significant increase of 62,500 tons week - on - week, 395,600 tons month - on - month, and 487,200 tons compared to the same period last year. As of the week of September 25, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 320,000 tons, a slight decrease of 20,500 tons week - on - week and 13,500 tons month - on - month, and a significant decrease of 116,900 tons compared to the same period last year [12][13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 418, an increase of 2 week - on - week and a decrease of 70 compared to the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.501 million barrels, an increase of 19,000 barrels per day week - on - week and 301,000 barrels per day year - on - year [13]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 415 million barrels, a significant decrease of 9.285 million barrels week - on - week and 2.152 million barrels compared to the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.561 million barrels, a slight decrease of 296,000 barrels week - on - week. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 405.7 million barrels, a slight increase of 504,000 barrels week - on - week [14]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, a significant increase of 4,249 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts (15.65% decrease) compared to the August average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 212,383 contracts, a significant decrease of 8,027 contracts week - on - week and a 4.97% increase compared to the August average [15]. 2. Spot Price Table - The spot price of Shanghai rubber was 14,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The futures price of the main contract was 15,375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis was - 725 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton [17]. - The spot price of methanol was 2,277 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The futures price of the main contract was 2,359 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis was - 82 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [17]. - The spot price of crude oil was 474.3 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/barrel from the previous day. The futures price of the main contract was 490.5 yuan/barrel, an increase of 0.2 yuan/barrel from the previous day. The basis was - 16.2 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/barrel [17]. 3. Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, methanol basis, methanol domestic port inventory, inland methanol social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, coal - to - methanol cost accounting, crude oil basis, US crude oil commercial inventory, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [18][20][22][31][43]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and sorted out, with a slight decline. The central bank's third - quarter regular meeting signaled flexible monetary policy, reducing the possibility of an overall interest rate cut in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the synergy of monetary and fiscal policies. Due to the weak economic data in August and the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the pressure on the RMB exchange rate has been greatly reduced. There is a high possibility of a loose monetary policy in the future, and Treasury bond futures have strong support below. In general, both the upward momentum and the downward space are limited in the short term, and it is expected that Treasury bond futures will mainly be in a low - level shock consolidation in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News and Related Charts - On September 29, the People's Bank of China carried out 288.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations through a fixed - rate and quantity - tendering method. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee held its 2025 third - quarter regular meeting, emphasizing the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthening counter - cyclical adjustment, better leveraging the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, and increasing the coordinated cooperation of monetary and fiscal policies to promote stable economic growth and keep prices at a reasonable level [4] 3.2 Related Charts - The report includes charts such as the trends of TL2512, T2512, TF2512, TS2512, the Treasury bond maturity yield curve, and the central bank's open - market operations, with data sources from iFinD and Baocheng Futures Research Institute [5][7][10]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Opened higher in the morning and fluctuated throughout the day with little change in open interest. After Freeport's copper mine production cut announcement on September 24, copper prices rose with increasing positions and market attention. Downstream industries showed low acceptance of the sharp price increase, and domestic pre - holiday stockpiling ended, leading to a weaker spot premium, which suppressed copper prices. With the upcoming National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays in China, overseas market volatility risks should be noted [4]. - **沪铝**: Traded strongly with a slight decline in open interest. Affected by the sharp rise in copper prices last week, aluminum prices stabilized and rebounded but with weak momentum. Before the domestic holiday, there were signs of inventory reduction in electrolytic aluminum, providing support. With a loose macro - environment and an improved supply - demand balance in the peak season, aluminum prices are expected to continue to stabilize and rise [5]. - **沪镍**: Traded in a range with a decline in open interest. The sector effect driven by copper prices faded, and nickel prices dropped back to the level at the beginning of last week. The long - term oversupply of nickel elements continued to suppress nickel prices, but in the short term, the slowdown in port nickel ore inventory accumulation and the reduction of SHFE nickel inventory provided support. With the overall decline of non - ferrous metals in the short term, technical support at the late - September low should be monitored [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On September 28, eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Non - Ferrous Metals Industry (2025 - 2026)". The plan aims to promote project construction in an orderly manner, avoid low - level redundant construction, and improve investment efficiency. It also emphasizes strengthening resource exploration and utilization, including implementing a new round of ore - finding breakthrough strategies, improving resource recovery and utilization rates, and promoting the comprehensive utilization of recycled resources [8][9]. - **Nickel**: Reuters analysis pointed out a serious disconnect in the key minerals market. Despite the expected surge in long - term demand for energy transition, the current situation is one of oversupply and weak prices. New capacity investments, especially in Indonesia, have led to a significant oversupply of nickel. As of September 29, the SMM1 electrolytic nickel price was 120,700 - 123,300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,000 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report presents charts on copper basis, monthly spreads, domestic and overseas exchange inventories, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, monthly spreads, domestic social inventory, overseas exchange inventory, alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel price trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][37][40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index futures is wide - range oscillation, with short - term funds having a profit - taking intention, while the medium - and long - term view is upward due to policy - driven expectations and long - term capital inflow trends [1][5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, and the overall reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between short - term profit - taking intention of funds and the fermentation of medium - and long - term policy - driven expectations [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. Last Friday, all stock indices oscillated and corrected. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 216.61 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.57 billion yuan from the previous day. News of Trump's new high - tariff policy on imported products increased market risk - aversion sentiment. As the valuation rises and the index approaches the previous high, coupled with the approaching National Day holiday, profit - taking demand of investors increases. However, in the long run, policy - driven expectations and long - term capital inflow trends are the driving forces for the upward movement of the stock index. The future market mainly focuses on the game between profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2601 is weak and volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak and volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are weakening and the ore price is under pressure [1]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakening, with increasing inventory. Although the terminal consumption of ore remains high, restocking is coming to an end, and the contradictions in the steel market are accumulating. The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the high - valued ore price is under pressure to decline. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, short - term (within a week): weak and volatile; medium - term (two weeks to one month): volatile; intraday: weak and volatile. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weakening fundamentals and the pressure on the ore price [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakening. Inventory is continuously increasing. Terminal consumption of ore remains high, but restocking is ending. The contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and the positive effects are weakening. The arrival volume of iron ore at domestic ports is increasing, and the overseas miners' shipments have declined from the high level. The supply of iron ore is increasing. Although the pre - holiday ore demand provides support for the ore price, the supply is rising, and the demand is weakening due to concerns about negative feedback. The fundamental contradictions will accumulate, and the high - valued ore price is under pressure to decline. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of Rebar 2601 is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also weakly oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that industrial concerns are fermenting, leading to a weak downward trend in steel prices [2]. - The black metals continued their weak downward trend in the night session last Friday, and the steel spot prices also declined over the weekend. Although the supply of rebar is stable and the pre - holiday downstream restocking has improved demand, the downstream industries are still sluggish, and the basic situation is difficult to improve continuously. The concern of production - cut negative feedback has fermented again, and steel prices are under pressure to run weakly before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the changes in open interest on the futures market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Rebar 2601, the short - term is weakly oscillating, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday is weakly oscillating. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the fermentation of industrial concerns and the weak downward trend of steel prices [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Industrial concerns are fermenting, leading to a weak downward trend in black metals in the night session last Friday and a decline in steel spot prices over the weekend. The supply of rebar is stable, and pre - holiday downstream restocking has improved demand, but the downstream industries are still sluggish, and the fundamentals are difficult to improve continuously. The concern of production - cut negative feedback has fermented again, and steel prices are under pressure to run weakly before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the changes in open interest on the futures market [3]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Weekly Report on Precious Metals - Author: Long Aoming from Baocheng Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price showed a high - level oscillation after surging. The price of New York gold rose from $3,700 to $3,800, and the corresponding main contract price of Shanghai gold futures rose from 830 yuan to 860 yuan. In the short term, the simultaneous rise of the gold price, U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar index was likely due to geopolitical tensions. The U.S. continuously pressuring Russia accelerated the upward movement of the gold price. Since the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, the gold price has been on an upward trend, breaking through the oscillation range since the second quarter with an accelerating upward momentum. After a short - term correction around the Fed's interest - rate meeting on September 18, the gold price reached a new high, and the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged. With China approaching the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, attention should be paid to overseas market fluctuations [3][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Weekly Trend - The report provides a graph showing the relationship between the COMEX gold futures closing price and the U.S. dollar index, but no specific textual description of the weekly trend other than the price changes of gold is given [7]. 3.1.2 Index Percentage Changes | Index | September 26 | September 19 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $3,789.80 | $3,719.40 | 1.89% | | COMEX Silver | $46.37 | $43.37 | 6.92% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 856.06 yuan | 830.56 yuan | 3.07% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 10,632.00 yuan | 9,971.00 yuan | 6.63% | | U.S. Dollar Index | 98.20 | 97.65 | 0.56% | | U.S. Dollar against Off - shore RMB | 7.14 | 7.12 | 0.32% | | 10 - year U.S. Treasury Real Yield | 1.82 | 1.75 | 0.07 | | S&P 500 | 6,643.70 | 6,664.36 | - 0.31% | | U.S. Crude Oil Continuous | $65.19 | $62.72 | 3.94% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 81.74 | 85.77 | - 4.70% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 80.52 | 83.30 | - 3.34% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,005.72 | 994.56 | 11.16 | | iShare Gold ETF | 478.90 | 474.47 | 4.43 | [8] 3.2 Accelerated Upward Movement of Gold Price - Last week, the gold price showed a high - level oscillation after surging. In the short term, the simultaneous rise of the gold price, U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar index was likely due to the intensification of geopolitical situations, which increased market risk - aversion demand. The decline of the U.S. stock market last week reduced market risk appetite, increased risk - aversion demand, and was favorable for the gold price [10][12]. 3.3 Tracking of Other Indicators - According to September 23 data, compared with the previous week, long positions changed by 6,030 contracts, short positions changed by 5,691 contracts, and net long positions changed by 339 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to precious - metal price trends than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness. Last week, the gold ETF holdings increased significantly. Both gold and silver rose significantly last week, with silver rising sharply, and the gold - silver ratio declined rapidly. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rebounded significantly last week, and the 10 - 2 yield spread widened. With the start of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, the market's expectation for the U.S. economy improved [14][16][19] 3.4 Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, emphasizing the short - term and medium - to - long - term trends of the gold price and reminding of overseas market fluctuations during the holiday [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper: The copper price increased with rising positions due to renewed disturbances at the mine end, but investors should be wary of overseas fluctuations. The Grasberg mine accident will lead to a 35% decline in copper and gold production in 2026, and it may not return to pre - accident production levels until 2027. Short - term copper prices have strong upward momentum, but downstream industries' low acceptance of high prices and the end of pre - holiday stockpiling in China may suppress the price. With the upcoming National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday in China, attention should be paid to overseas risks [3]. - Aluminum: With a macro - level easing environment and a supply - demand balance improvement in the industry, the aluminum price may oscillate and stabilize. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity utilization rate remains above 95%. Although the demand in some sectors is weak, the demand for industrial profiles in photovoltaic and automotive industries is relatively resilient. Low inventory levels support the aluminum price, and it is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend, with attention on the pressure at the 21,000 - yuan mark [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - The US dollar index rebounded last week, putting pressure on the copper price. The Grasberg mine accident has led to the suspension of production at the world's second - largest copper mine. Freeport expects the mine to resume pre - accident production levels earliest in 2027, with a 35% decline in copper and gold production in 2026. In 2024, its output was 816,000 tons, accounting for 3.5% of the global output [8]. 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, the copper price first rose and then fell. The main contract price of Shanghai copper once reached the 83,000 - yuan mark. Short - term London copper broke through the annual high, and Shanghai copper approached the annual high, with rapidly increasing capital attention and strong upward momentum [3]. 2.2 Copper Ore Processing Fees Rebounded Slightly at a Low Level - The copper ore processing fees showed a slight upward trend at a low level, and relevant data on copper concentrate port inventory and TC processing fees were presented in the report [23]. 2.3 Electrolytic Copper De - stocking Slowed Down - The de - stocking of electrolytic copper slowed down, and the report showed data on domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and overseas futures inventory [26]. 2.4 Downstream Initial - stage Industries - The report presented data on the monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream industries, including data on refined copper rods, copper tubes, copper rods, and copper strips [29]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, the aluminum price oscillated. Driven by the copper price during the week, it once rebounded but showed weakness. The report presented data on aluminum price trends, Shanghai - London ratio, London aluminum premium/discount, and Shanghai aluminum spot premium/discount [4][30]. 3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - The report showed data on bauxite port inventory and alumina price, reflecting the situation of the aluminum upstream industrial chain [38]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Stockpiling Slowed Down - The stockpiling of electrolytic aluminum slowed down, and the report presented data on overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory [42]. 3.4 Downstream Initial - stage Industries - The report presented data on aluminum rod capacity utilization, 6063 aluminum rod processing fees (average price), and 6063 aluminum rod inventory, reflecting the situation of the aluminum downstream initial - stage industries [45]. 4. Conclusion - Copper: The Grasberg mine accident affects production, and short - term copper prices have upward momentum but are also subject to downward pressure from downstream acceptance and pre - holiday factors. Attention should be paid to overseas risks during the holiday. - Aluminum: With macro - level easing and improved supply - demand balance in the industry, the aluminum price is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend, with attention on the pressure at the 21,000 - yuan mark [52][53].