Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the overall industry investment rating. Report's Core View - The report is optimistic about the short - term and medium - term trends of certain agricultural products in the commodity futures market, including soymeal and palm oil, with an expectation of a continued upward trend [5][6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Soymeal (M) - **Views**: The intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is strong. The reference view is oscillating strongly [5]. - **Core Logic**: Although rainfall in US soybean - producing areas has slowed the rebound of US soybean futures prices, the US soybean market remains in a weather - driven cycle with a tendency to rise easily and fall hard. US soybean futures prices are supported by biofuel policies, which in turn support domestic soybeans. The inflow of funds into the meal market has strengthened the overall trend, and soybean futures prices are expected to continue the upward trend [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Views**: The intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is strong. The reference view is oscillating strongly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The overall oil market is strong. The rise in international oil prices has had a spill - over effect on the oil sector. The bio - diesel attribute of palm oil has become prominent, market sentiment has improved, and funds have flowed back into the palm oil market. The increase in palm oil import costs has also boosted futures prices. With the support of funds, the price elasticity of domestic palm oil has emerged, leading the rebound of the oil sector [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：近期全国安全生产月以及环保要求短期对煤矿生产造成一定影响。据悉，5 月底以来， 山西、内蒙煤矿事故有所增多，主产区安监边际收紧，但对整体产量影响较为有限。进口方面， 2025 年 5 月，全国进口煤及褐煤 3604.01 万吨，环比下降 4.7%。动力煤产量、进口量均开始边 际收紧。需求端，数据显示，截至 6 月 5 日，沿海 8 省电厂煤炭日耗为 171.8 万吨，周环比增 0.7 万吨/天；内陆 17 省电厂煤炭日耗为 313.6 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to face downward pressure, with the price likely to be weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line and the change in hot metal [1][2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly volatile. The core logic is that the fundamentals are weakening and the ore price is under pressure [1] Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore continue to weaken. During the off - season, steel mills increase maintenance, leading to a continuous decline in ore terminal consumption with further decline potential. Although port arrivals and miners' shipments have decreased, overseas ore is still at a high level due to miners' end - of - fiscal - year volume rush. Based on shipping schedules, subsequent arrivals are expected to increase, and domestic ore supply is weakly stable. The supply of ore has remained high recently. The supply - demand pattern has not improved, and the futures price discount is being repaired. Therefore, the ore price is expected to be under pressure and run weakly [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-06-18 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘因素增强，甲醇震荡偏强 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：本周以来，伊朗和以色列冲突持续升级，双方导弹空袭目标转向能源设施，导致能化商 品溢价提升。作为全 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the report. It mainly provides a daily report of arbitrage data for various futures products, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. Summary by Catalog 1. Power Coal - The table shows the basis and spreads of different contract months for power coal from June 11 to June 17, 2025. The basis remains at - 192.4 yuan/ton during this period, and the spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) are all 0.0 [2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - The table presents the basis and ratio data of INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from June 11 to June 17, 2025. For example, on June 17, the basis of INE crude oil is - 18.97 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt is 0.1450 [6] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of various chemical products (natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PP etc.) are provided from June 11 to June 17, 2025. For instance, on June 17, the basis of natural rubber is - 20 yuan/ton, and that of methanol is 200 yuan/ton [11] - **Inter - period spreads**: The spreads between different contract months (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) for various chemical products are given. For example, for natural rubber, the 5 - 1 spread is 60 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread is - 850 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 5 spread is - 910 yuan/ton [11] - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The spreads between different chemical products (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3*methanol) are presented from June 11 to June 17, 2025. On June 17, the LLDPE - PVC spread is 2456 yuan/ton [11] 3. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from June 11 to June 17, 2025 are shown. On June 17, the basis of rebar is 119.0 yuan/ton, and that of iron ore is 92.6 yuan/ton [16] - **Inter - period spreads**: The spreads between different contract months for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, for rebar, the 10 - 1 spread is 7.0 yuan/ton [16] - **Inter - commodity ratios and spreads**: The ratios (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal) and spreads (rebar - hot - rolled coil) are presented from June 11 to June 17, 2025. On June 17, the rebar/iron ore ratio is 4.26, and the rebar - hot - rolled coil spread is - 112.0 yuan/ton [16] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Domestic basis**: The basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the domestic market from June 11 to June 17, 2025 are given. On June 17, the basis of copper is 270 yuan/ton, and that of aluminum is 100 yuan/ton [24] - **LME market data**: Data including LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on June 17, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper is 122.77, and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.11 [30] (2) London Market - Relevant charts show the LME basis, Shanghai - London ratio, and import profit and loss trends for non - ferrous metals [32][33][34] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans (No. 1 and No. 2), soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton from June 11 to June 17, 2025 are presented. On June 17, the basis of soybean No. 1 is - 167 yuan/ton, and that of soybean oil is 298 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - period spreads**: The spreads between different contract months for various agricultural products are given. For example, for soybean No. 1, the 5 - 1 spread is 8 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread is 119 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 5 spread is 111 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - commodity spreads and ratios**: The spreads (soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, corn - corn starch) and ratios (soybean No. 1/corn, soybean No. 2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal) from June 11 to June 17, 2025 are presented. On June 17, the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread is 392 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio is 2.59 [38] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from June 11 to June 17, 2025 are shown. On June 17, the basis of CSI 300 is 1.78, and that of SSE 50 is 3.15 [48] - **Inter - period spreads**: The spreads between different contract months (next month - current month, current quarter - current month, next quarter - current month etc.) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, for CSI 300, the next month - current month spread is - 41.6 [48]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 短线看弱 | 中东局势紧张，避险需求推升金 价 | | 镍 | 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 短线看弱 | 市场预期菲律宾将解除禁矿，上 游矿端承压 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 核心逻辑：市场消化中东局势紧张的消息后，昨日纽约金屡次跌破 34 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局偏弱，建筑钢厂转产，螺纹产量环比下降并降至低位，供应压力有所缓解；而 螺纹需求延续季节性走弱，周度表需走弱，高频成交低迷，弱势需求承压钢价。总之，螺纹供需格 局表现不佳，淡季钢价承压运行，相对利好则是现实 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall view is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the strong side", due to weak macro - economic indicators and rising expectations of monetary easing [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall view is "oscillation". The bottom support for treasury bond futures is strong, and they will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term, as the financing demand of the real sector is still weak, the market's expectation of future monetary policy easing has increased, the central bank has injected liquidity, and there are expectations of policy benefits from the Lujiazui Forum [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The time - cycle definitions are: short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month. For the TL2509 variety, short - term, medium - term, and overall view is "oscillation", intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", and the core logic is weak macro - economic indicators and rising expectations of monetary easing [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and rose yesterday. May's credit data shows weak financing demand in the real sector, leading to rising expectations of monetary policy easing. The central bank's issuance of repurchase agreements has increased the expectation of a decline in market interest rates. The expected policy benefits from the Lujiazui Forum on the 18th will drive up the price of treasury bond futures. So, in the short term, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate with strong bottom support [4].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content Group 2: Core Views - The short - term and medium - term views of both coking coal and coke are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with a reference view of "low - level oscillation" [1] - For coking coal, the market sentiment change is due to supply - side disturbances and macro - positive expectations from international events. It has stopped falling and rebounded, but the supply - easing pattern may return, and the impact of geopolitics on coal prices needs further assessment [5] - For coke, it maintains a pattern of both supply and demand decline in the off - season. The cost support from coking coal has strengthened, driving the price to stop falling and rebound slightly [7] Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal - **Price**: On the night of June 17, the main coking coal contract oscillated around 790 yuan/ton. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 865.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8%, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 834 yuan/ton [5] - **Core Logic**: Supply - side disturbances and macro - positive expectations have led to a short - and medium - term adjustment. But it will take time to reverse the supply - easing pattern, and the supply pressure may return after July. The impact of geopolitics on coal prices needs further assessment [5] Coke - **Price**: On the night of June 17, the main coke contract oscillated narrowly. After three rounds of price cuts, the price has been stable this week. The latest quotation of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is 1270 yuan/ton, week - on - week unchanged, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1401 yuan/ton [7] - **Core Logic**: It maintains a pattern of both supply and demand decline in the off - season. The marginal decline in coking coal production and international events have strengthened the cost support, driving the price to stop falling and rebound slightly [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly upward, and closing slightly higher. The price center of the contract during the session slightly shifted up to 13,870 yuan/ton, closing with a slight increase of 0.29% at 13,870 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread discount narrowed to 845 yuan/ton. With Southeast Asian and domestic natural rubber producing areas in full tapping, and the Sino - Thai consultation on zero - tariff for natural rubber imports, along with the improved macro - expectations after the leaders of China and the US communicated, it is expected that the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures may maintain an oscillating and stable trend in the future [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly upward, and closing slightly higher. The contract price reached a maximum of 2,466 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,397 yuan/ton, closing with a slight increase of 0.37% at 2,455 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread discount narrowed to 0 yuan/ton. Due to the potential breakdown of the US - Iran nuclear negotiations, the Israeli attack on Iran, and the subsequent military retaliation from Iran, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has escalated, which may lead to the shutdown of Iranian methanol plants and disrupt overseas supply. It is expected that the 2509 contract of domestic methanol futures may maintain an oscillating and upward - biased pattern [4]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, adding positions, oscillating weakly downward at a high level, and closing slightly lower. The contract price reached a maximum of 531.8 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 508.3 yuan/barrel, closing with a slight decrease of 0.81% at 524.9 yuan/barrel. After the breakdown of the US - Iran nuclear negotiations and the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the crude oil supply may face a shortage risk. After the short - term positive factors are digested, differences between bulls and bears in the oil market have emerged. It is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a high - level oscillating trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber** - As of June 15, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,400 tons or 0.23%. The bonded area inventory was 83,900 tons, a decrease of 1.87%, and the general trade inventory was 522,900 tons, an increase of 0.58%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 1.14 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.44 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.82 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.29 percentage points [8]. - As of June 13, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a week - on - week increase of 5.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.42 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 58.70%, a week - on - week increase of 3.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.60 percentage points [8]. - In May 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 52.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 7.1 percentage points. The index was above the boom - bust line, indicating an improvement in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity [8]. - In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9% [9]. - In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [9]. - **Methanol** - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 82.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.16%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.93%. The average weekly methanol production in China was 1.9827 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 320 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 840 tons, and a significant increase of 241,500 tons compared with the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.77%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 4.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.69%. The acetic acid operating rate was 98.81%, a week - on - week increase of 10.99%. The MTBE operating rate was 49.33%, a week - on - week increase of 4.24%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.91 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.42% [10]. - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 211 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 278 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 514,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 55,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 123,900 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 19,000 tons. The methanol inventory in East China ports was 336,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,700 tons, and the inventory in South China ports was 177,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,900 tons. As of the week of June 12, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 379,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43,200 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 29,600 tons [11][12]. - **Crude Oil** - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 442, a week - on - week decrease of 19 and a year - on - year decrease of 50. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.428 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 228,000 barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 432 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.644 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 27.237 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.683 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 403,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 402 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 237,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 94.3%, a week - on - week increase of 0.9 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 4.1 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.60 percentage points [13]. - Since June 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown an oscillating and stable trend, and the market's bullish power has increased. As of June 10, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 191,941 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 23,984 contracts and a significant increase of 13,730 contracts or 7.70% compared with the May average. As of June 10, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 182,440 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 26,921 contracts and a significant increase of 46,905 contracts or 34.41% compared with the May average [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rubber | 13,850 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 13,870 yuan/ton | - 40 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,625 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | 2,455 yuan/ton | - 9 yuan/ton | + 170 yuan/ton | + 4 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 508.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 524.9 yuan/barrel | - 8.0 yuan/barrel | - 16.5 yuan/barrel | + 7.8 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - to - month spreads, inventory, and net position changes, but no specific analysis of these charts is provided in the text [17][30][43]