Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory with a slight upward trend, with an overall oscillatory outlook due to weak macro - economic indicators and rising expectations of monetary easing [1]. - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is oscillatory with a slight upward trend, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the overall reference view is oscillatory. In the short term, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate with strong downward support [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory with a slight upward trend. The core logic is that macro - economic indicators are weak and the expectation of monetary easing is rising [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly yesterday. At the Lujiazui Forum, the central bank announced 8 major policies, including issuing offshore bonds, which will increase the demand for treasury bonds in the future and benefit treasury bond prices in the long - term. The latest macro - economic indicators are weakening marginally, and the market's expectation of future monetary policy easing is rising. So, treasury bond futures have strong downward support and low downward risk, and will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 6 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 现实矛盾不大，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局变化不大，建筑钢厂有所转产，螺纹产量持续下降并降至相对低位，供应压力 在缓解；不过，螺纹需求同样季节性走弱，周度表需环比减量，而高频成交表现低迷，继续抑制淡 季钢价。目前来看，螺纹钢供需双弱局面未 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, fluctuating strongly, and slightly rising on Wednesday. It is expected to maintain a fluctuating and stable trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating upwards, and significantly rising on Wednesday. It is expected to maintain a fluctuating and strong pattern in the future [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, maintaining strength, and significantly rising on Wednesday. It is expected that the prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures will maintain a fluctuating and strong trend in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of June 15, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,400 tons or 0.23%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.87%, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.58% [8]. - As of June 13, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a week - on - week increase of 5.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.42 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 58.70%, a week - on - week increase of 3.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.60 percentage points [8]. - In May 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 52.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 7.1 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, and the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry improved [8]. - In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9% [9]. - In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 82.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.16%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.93%. The average weekly methanol output in China was 1.9827 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 320 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 840 tons, and a significant increase of 241,500 tons compared with the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.77%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 4.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.69%. The acetic acid operating rate was 98.81%, a week - on - week increase of 10.99%. The MTBE operating rate was 49.33%, a week - on - week increase of 4.24% [10]. - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.91 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.42%. As of June 13, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 211 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 278 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 514,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 55,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 123,900 tons, and a slight increase of 19,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The inland methanol inventory in China was 379,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43,200 tons, and a slight decrease of 29,600 tons compared with the same period last year [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 442, a week - on - week decrease of 19 and a decrease of 50 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.428 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 barrels/day and a year - on - year increase of 228,000 barrels/day [12]. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 432 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.644 million barrels and a significant decrease of 27.237 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, decreased by 403,000 barrels week - on - week, and the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 237,000 barrels week - on - week [13]. - The U.S. refinery operating rate was 94.3%, a week - on - week increase of 0.9 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 4.1 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.60 percentage points [13]. - Since June 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a fluctuating and stable trend, and the market's bullish power has increased. As of June 10, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 191,941 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 23,984 contracts and a significant increase of 13,730 contracts or 7.70% compared with the May average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 182,440 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 26,921 contracts and a significant increase of 46,905 contracts or 34.41% compared with the May average [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Price Change Compared to the Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Price Change Compared to the Previous Day | Basis | Basis Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,000 yuan/ton | +150 yuan/ton | 14,010 yuan/ton | +140 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,695 yuan/ton | +40 yuan/ton | 2,517 yuan/ton | +62 yuan/ton | +178 yuan/ton | - 22 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 511.0 yuan/barrel | +0.2 yuan/barrel | 552.7 yuan/barrel | +27.8 yuan/barrel | - 41.8 yuan/barrel | - 27.7 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - to - month spreads, inventory, and net position changes [17][30][43]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The valuation of soda ash is related to basis, price structure changes, fuel prices, production costs/profits, related products, by - products of production processes, and prices of upstream and downstream products. The report explores soda ash valuation from these aspects [4][39]. - The basis of soda ash mostly depends on the premium of futures prices, but at the beginning of a large - scale rising market, the spot has better initiative. In the middle and late stages of the market and during the decline, the futures' initiative is more obvious. When the basis is relatively stable, market contradictions are clear and not intense, which is the current situation [4][39]. - The price structure of soda ash is very sensitive to supply - demand relationships (or inventory). Currently, it is flattening from a steep contango structure, which is due to bearish sentiment in the far - month contracts, indicating weakness [4][39]. - The transmission of fuel prices to soda ash prices requires significant price fluctuations, such as in 2021. Currently, fuel price fluctuations are small, so the impact on soda ash prices is limited [4][39]. - From the cost/profit perspective, soda ash is currently in a low - profit state, and there have been losses in the past six months, but it has not significantly affected cash - flow costs, and enterprise开工 has not changed much. In this state of low profit and high production, it is difficult to see a reversal in soda ash [4][39]. - From the prices of light and heavy soda ash, ammonium chloride, and glass, the price of soda ash is at a relatively low level in history. Whether it will turn around in the future depends on supply - demand [4][39]. - Valuation ultimately affects supply - demand. Only when there is a transmission from valuation to production and then to inventory can the significance of valuation be reflected. If soda ash maintains high production under low prices and low profits, the valuation has not reached the point of "quantitative change leading to qualitative change" [5][40] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1 Valuation 1.1 Definition - The valuation of commodities is the process of assessing their intrinsic value in a specific market environment and economic conditions. It is a complex evaluation system based on current information and future expectations. For stocks, different types of price - earnings ratios are used for valuation, and for commodities, valuation is more "practical" as high or low valuations will be corrected by the market through trade, etc. [10] 1.2 Soda Ash Valuation - The valuation of soda ash is related to basis, price structure changes, production costs, production profits, substitutes, complements, by - products of production processes, and prices of upstream and downstream products. The report focuses on basis, price structure, raw material prices of different processes, production costs and profits, price differences between heavy and light soda ash, ammonium chloride prices, and glass prices [11] 2 Soda Ash Valuation Analysis 2.1 Basis - The basis of soda ash has high elasticity, which is related to the increasing concentration of the soda ash industry. During large price fluctuations, the spot price is rigid, and the basis expands. In the rising process, the spot follows the price increase actively, and at the beginning of the rise, the spot is stronger than the futures. In the decline, the spot is more resistant to price drops, and the futures decline more than the spot. With more spot - futures traders in the industry, the basis fluctuation is expected to converge. When the basis fluctuates within a narrow range, the fundamentals of soda ash are more transparent [12][13] 2.2 Price Structure - The price structure of soda ash is very sensitive to supply - demand and inventory changes. In the past year and a half, it has changed from a backwardation structure to a contango structure. Recently, the monthly spread has been in a positive - carry situation, with the near - month contracts showing some resistance to price drops, and the market's bearish sentiment mainly reflected in the far - month contracts [17][20] 2.3 Raw Material Prices - Soda ash has three production processes: the combined soda process, the ammonia - soda process, and the natural - soda process. In the ammonia - soda and combined soda processes, raw material and fuel costs account for a relatively high proportion. The price of soda ash is highly correlated with raw salt and fuel prices, but it is more sensitive to fuel price fluctuations. Only in extreme market conditions will soda ash prices react synchronously to raw material or fuel price changes [23] 2.4 Cost and Profit - The total cost of soda ash provides a "floor" for the price. Enterprises may adjust production according to cost/profit, but it is not always the case. Using profit to estimate the price of soda ash is more effective, and the combination of "profit + production" is more meaningful for price judgment [24] 2.5 Related Products - Light and heavy soda ash, as two physical forms of soda ash, have a high degree of price linkage and a reasonable price difference. The price difference is mainly due to processing and logistics costs. Price transmission is a two - way dynamic balance, and in special cases, the price difference may break through the reasonable range [27] 2.6 By - products - The combined soda process produces ammonium chloride as a by - product. There is a certain correlation between the prices of soda ash and ammonium chloride. When the price of soda ash is high, the price of ammonium chloride has more room for fluctuation, and when the price of soda ash is low, the cost of soda ash is more dependent on the price of ammonium chloride. If the demand for ammonium chloride is suppressed, it may increase the cost pressure of soda ash [30][31][34] 2.7 Upstream and Downstream Products - The downstream of soda ash is relatively concentrated, with glass demand accounting for about 73%. There is a price correlation between soda ash and glass. The price fluctuation of soda ash will be transmitted to glass through cost - push, but there are constraints. The reverse transmission is also significant, and in special situations, the price relationship between the two may decouple [35][37] 3 Main Conclusions - The conclusions are the same as the core viewpoints, emphasizing the relationship between soda ash valuation and various factors, the current situation of basis, price structure, the impact of fuel prices, cost/profit status, and the role of supply - demand in future price trends [39][40]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 18 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业格局弱稳，钢矿低位震荡 核心观点 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 8 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.13%日涨幅，量增仓缩。现阶段， 螺纹供需格局表现不佳，淡季钢价承压运行，相对利好则是现实矛盾不 大，库存维持低位，基本面弱稳局面下预计钢价延续低位震荡运行态 势，关注需求变化情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价低位震荡，录得 0.32%日涨幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，热卷供需格局未好 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Coke**: On June 18, the main coke contract closed at 1,375 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.62%. The position of the main contract was 51,886 lots, a net increase of 743 lots from the previous trading day. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the cost of futures warehouse receipts was about 1,401 yuan/ton. Coke maintains a pattern of both supply and demand decline, affected by the off - season. However, the recent marginal decline in coking coal production, combined with events such as the Israel - Iran conflict and political turmoil in Mongolia, has strengthened the cost support for coke futures, driving the price to stop falling and stabilize. In general, the fundamentals of coke have not changed much. The off - season still suppresses the decline of both supply and demand, but the cost - side support from coking coal has increased marginally, driving the coke price to stop falling and rebound slightly. Continued attention should be paid to the raw material situation [5][32]. - **Coking Coal**: On June 18, the main coking coal contract closed at 790.5 points, down 0.57% intraday. The position of the main contract was 549,735 lots, a net decrease of 13,032 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 865 yuan/ton, down 2.8% week - on - week, and the cost of futures warehouse receipts was about 834 yuan/ton. The change in the coking coal market sentiment mainly stems from supply - side disturbances and macro - positive expectations brought by international themes such as geopolitics and Sino - US relations. The short - and medium - term adjustment of coking coal, which has been hitting new lows this year, is reasonable. However, it will still take some time to completely reverse the current situation of loose supply. Without policy intervention, the supply pressure of coking coal may return after July. The marginal positive effect of the first meeting of the Sino - US London Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism on the terminal demand for ferrous metals is limited, and the more critical factor may be whether the Israel - Iran conflict will trigger a new round of international energy price increases. In general, the coking coal futures have stopped falling and stabilized and gradually moved up, but the sustainability of coking coal production cuts and the impact of geopolitics on coal prices need further evaluation. It is recommended to view it as a phased rebound, but be vigilant against the falsification of the upward logic [6][33]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - **Automobile Trade**: In May 2025, China exported 690,000 automobiles, a year - on - year increase of 22.2%; from January to May, the cumulative export was 2.85 million, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%. In May, China imported 50,000 automobiles, a year - on - year decrease of 25.5%; from January to May, the cumulative import was 180,000, a year - on - year decrease of 32.8% [8]. - **Coking Coal Market**: On June 18, the price of coking coal in Linfen Yaodu District remained stable. The ex - factory price of high - sulfur strong coking coal (A10.5, S4.1, V31, G100, Y40, CSR75, Mt10) was 780 yuan/ton, cash - inclusive of tax [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi - first - grade Ex - warehouse) | 1,270 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 5.22% | - 24.85% | - 36.18% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Ex - warehouse) | 1,170 yuan/ton | - 0.85% | - 4.10% | - 27.78% | - 40.00% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 865 yuan/ton | - 2.81% | - 5.98% | - 26.69% | - 45.94% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1,210 yuan/ton | 0.83% | - 4.72% | - 18.79% | - 43.46% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1,250 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.10% | - 18.30% | - 39.02% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,375.0 yuan/ton | + 0.62% | 1,390.0 yuan/ton | 1,361.5 yuan/ton | 26,667 lots | + 5,677 lots | 51,886 lots | + 743 lots | | Coking Coal | - | 790.5 points | - 0.57% | 801.0 points | 782.0 points | 834,209 lots | - 185,328 lots | 549,735 lots | - 13,032 lots | [13] Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory data of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory on a weekly basis from 2019 - 2025 [14][15][17]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts show the inventory data of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal on a weekly basis from 2019 - 2025 [20][23][25]. - **Other Charts**: Include Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production situation, coal washing plant production situation, and coking plant operation situation [27][29][31]. Market Outlook The outlook for coke and coking coal is consistent with the core views, emphasizing the current market situation, influencing factors, and the need to continue monitoring relevant factors [32][33].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 核心观点 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 沪铜 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 18 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 今日沪铜增仓上行，主力期价逼近 7.9 万关口。本周市场消化中 东局势消息，风险偏好回升，金价持续回落，今日白银再创新高。 产业层面，国内处于供需双强，电解铜社库淡季去化放缓。宏观氛 围回暖或持续推升铜价，关注 7.9 万一线多空博弈。 铜铝日内上行 沪铝 今日铝价整体呈现增仓上行趋势，主力期价拉升至 2.07 万关口。 本周市场消化中东局势消息，风险偏好回升。产业层面，国内需求较 好，电解铝库存持续去化。随着期价上行，下游需求或受 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 宝城期货原油早报-2025-06-18 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 原油 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 强势运行 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 偏强 | 中期 | 日内 偏强 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 地缘因素增强，原油强势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run in a relatively strong pattern. Shanghai rubber 2509 and synthetic rubber 2508 are expected to maintain a volatile and relatively strong trend on Wednesday, June 19, 2025 [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile and relatively strong; Overall view: relatively strong operation [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Since this week, the conflict between Iran and Israel has continued to escalate, with missile attacks on energy facilities, increasing the premium of energy - chemical commodities. The resonance factor in the strong energy - chemical sector supports the Shanghai rubber futures to maintain a relatively strong pattern. The negative impact of the weak supply - demand structure in the rubber market is covered by the bullish atmosphere. On Tuesday night, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures rose slightly, with the futures price up 1.37% to 14,045 yuan/ton [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile and relatively strong; Overall view: relatively strong operation [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: Since this week, due to the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel and attacks on energy facilities, the premium of energy - chemical commodities has increased. The cost factor and resonance factor in the strong performance of crude oil futures and energy - chemical commodities support the synthetic rubber futures to maintain a relatively strong pattern. The negative impact of the weak supply - demand structure of synthetic rubber is covered by the bullish atmosphere. On Tuesday night, the 2508 contract of synthetic rubber futures rose slightly, with the futures price up 1.33% to 11,470 yuan/ton [7].

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2 - Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is interval oscillation, the medium - term view is going up, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly. The policy - side positive expectations form strong support, but there are uncertainties from external factors such as the evolution after the end of the Sino - US tariff war suspension period and the Middle East geopolitical crisis [1][5] Group 3 - Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term trend is oscillation, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is that the latest May credit data shows weak real - economy financing demand, so policy - side support is expected. The positive policy expectations strengthen the bottom support of the stock index. Also, there are high uncertainties from external factors, and the stock market risk preference is defensive. In the short term, the stock index will mainly oscillate in an interval, waiting for new driving forces [5]