投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 2 月 3 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：豆类市场在宏观情绪转弱与基本面影响下整体承压。基本面核心矛盾在于全球供应充裕与国内 节前备货平淡的对抗。随着春节临近油厂开机率下降，豆粕库存有望继续减少，或对价格及基差形成支撑， 但全球丰产压力与宏观偏空氛围将限制上行空间，预计短期豆粕价格维持震荡偏弱格局，关注南美天气最 终定产及国内节后补库需求的实际强度。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 2, 2026, all stock indices declined unilaterally. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2,606.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 255.8 billion yuan from the previous day [3]. - Due to the significant sell - off of commodities in the Asia - Pacific session, resource - cycle sectors such as metals, oil and gas, chemicals, coal, and steel tumbled, dragging down the index [3]. - The manufacturing PMI in January returned to the contraction range, showing "weak reality" pressure. Since the recent stock price rebound was mainly driven by valuation, the short - term upward drive for stock indices has weakened, and there is a need for shock consolidation [3]. - The sharp correction in the commodity market led to a weakening of market sentiment, which spread to the stock market. The willingness of funds to take profits and leave the market increased, resulting in a contraction in trading volume [3]. - In the long - term, the positive policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market still form the main logical basis for the upward movement of stock indices. In general, stock indices will mainly experience shock consolidation in the short term [3]. - For options, since the long - term upward logic of stock indices is relatively solid, a bull spread strategy can be considered [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On February 2, 2026, the 50ETF fell 2.13% to 3.080; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 2.36% to 4.600; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 2.20% to 4.804; the CSI 300 Index fell 2.13% to 4,605.98; the CSI 1000 Index fell 3.39% to 7,975.43; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 4.63% to 8.049; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 3.73% to 3.225; the ChiNext ETF fell 2.49% to 3.252; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 1.81% to 3.415; the SSE 50 Index fell 2.07% to 3,003.14; the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF fell 3.78% to 1.53; and the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF fell 3.71% to 1.48 [5]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options changed compared to the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 104.47 (previous day: 88.74), and the position PCR was 72.76 (previous day: 74.46) [6]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are provided. For instance, the implied volatility of at - the - money options of SSE 50ETF options in February 2026 was 15.36%, and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 12.27% [7]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - Multiple charts are presented for different types of options, including the trend of the underlying assets, volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors for each option, such as SSE 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, etc. [9][18][21]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2026 年第 5 周） 一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 2669.20 万吨，环比增 43.70 万吨，低位有所回升；增量主要源于巴西矿，环 比增 341.90 万吨，澳矿、非澳巴矿环比分别减 123.10、176.10 万吨。 2、海外矿石发运持续回升，全球矿石发运总量为 3094.60 万吨，环比增 116.26 万吨，其中主流矿商 发运多数延续回升，四大矿商发运环比增 71.90 万吨；细分地区看巴西矿环比增 143.77 万吨，低位开始回 升；澳矿、非澳巴矿发运则是分别微降 17.04 万吨、10.47 万吨。 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量将回升，海外供应开始企稳，关注后续变化。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 本期值 | 上期值 | 周度变化 | 周度变化 | 上 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is operating weakly. The closing price of the main contract LC2605.GFE in the futures market is 132,440 yuan/ton, down 15,760 yuan/ton from the previous day, showing a downward trend in the past 10 trading days. The spot price of lithium carbonate is 155,380 yuan/ton, down 3.14% from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. The current basis is 13,840 points, a positive basis (spot premium), strengthening by 7,410 points from the previous day, and the basis has strengthened overall in the past 10 trading days. The registered warehouse receipt volume of lithium carbonate is 32,241 lots, an increase of 1,610 lots (+5.26%) from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts have increased overall in the past 10 trading days. Pre - holiday stocking is basically completed [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the main futures contract is 132,440 yuan/ton, down 15,760 yuan/ton from the previous day and 33,240 yuan/ton from the previous week. The settlement price is 141,540 yuan/ton, down 12,440 yuan/ton from the previous day and 35,400 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of Australian CIF6 China lithium spodumene concentrate is in the range of 2,070 - 2,130 US dollars/ton, with a decrease compared to the previous week. The price of Brazilian CIF6 China lithium spodumene concentrate is in the range of 2,060 - 2,120 US dollars/ton, also with a decrease compared to the previous week. The price of Zimbabwe CIF6 China lithium spodumene concentrate is in the range of 2,040 - 2,120 US dollars/ton, with a decrease compared to the previous week. The price of Mali CIF6 China lithium spodumene concentrate is in the range of 2,100 - 2,200 US dollars/ton, with little change from the previous day and a decrease compared to the previous week. The price of South African CIF China lithium spodumene raw ore is in the range of 330 - 390 US dollars/ton, with little change from the previous day and a decrease compared to the previous week. The price of domestic 99.5% electric - grade lithium carbonate is 155,380 yuan/ton, down 5,030 yuan/ton from the previous day and 26,240 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide is 151,920 yuan/ton, down 5,960 yuan/ton from the previous day and 17,200 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The price of ternary precursor (523) is 110,500 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day and the previous week. The price of ternary precursor (622) is 111,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day and the previous week. The price of ternary precursor (111) is 129,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The price of domestic 111 - type ternary material for power is 191,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan/ton from the previous day and 6,000 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of domestic 5 - series (523) ternary material for power is 189,500 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan/ton from the previous day and 6,000 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of electrolyte (lithium manganate) is 55,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 2,500 yuan/ton from the previous week. The average price of domestic cobalt - acid lithium (≥60%) is 400,500 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day and the previous week. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 132,500 yuan/ton, down 5,500 yuan/ton from the previous day and the previous week [6]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: The report provides charts on the price changes of lithium mica, the main futures price of lithium carbonate, the price of domestic 99.5% electric - grade lithium carbonate, the price of lithium hydroxide, the basis of lithium carbonate, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate [8]. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: Charts show the prices of manganese - acid lithium (low - capacity type, domestic), domestic lithium iron phosphate, domestic cobalt - acid lithium (≥60%), ternary precursor, and ternary materials [10][12]. - **Other Related Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures**: Charts display the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipt volume of the main lithium carbonate futures contract [16][17].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 2 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 商品情绪弱势，钢矿承压下行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价弱势下行，录得 1.56%日跌幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应高位平稳运行，而需求表现偏弱，基本面延续弱势格局，叠 加商品情绪偏弱，淡季钢价承压偏弱运行，关注库存变化情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价偏弱运行，录得 1.24%日跌幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，热卷供需两端均维持高位，基本面弱势运行，叠加商品情绪不佳， 热卷承压偏弱运行，且需谨防需求走弱引发产业矛盾激化，关注需求表 现情 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Coke**: As of the week ending January 30, the combined daily average coke output of coking plants and steel mills was 1.1021 million tons, a slight weekly increase of 400 tons. Coking enterprises suffered heavy losses, with the profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants monitored by Steelhome being -55 yuan/ton, a weekly improvement of 11 yuan/ton but still in the red. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2.2798 million tons, a slight weekly decrease of 1200 tons. Overall, there were few changes in the coke fundamentals, and with no continuous support from raw material coking coal, coke futures were expected to remain in a low - level range [5][31]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending January 30, the daily average output of clean coking coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 771,000 tons, basically flat week - on - week with a slight increase of 1000 tons and 37,000 tons higher than the same period last year. On the demand side, as of the same week, the combined daily output of coke from coking plants and steel mills was 1.1021 million tons, also basically flat week - on - week with a slight increase of 400 tons. Overall, there were no obvious changes in the coking coal fundamentals. There were three potential positive factors: downstream winter storage was still ongoing, providing some support for coking coal spot prices; with the Spring Festival approaching, there were expectations of early mine shutdowns; and the tense situation in the Middle East led to a geopolitical premium in crude oil, driving up energy - related commodities. However, lacking domestic policy support and strong fundamentals, coking coal futures still lacked the momentum for continuous growth, and prices were expected to remain range - bound in the near term [5][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - **Steel Enterprise Emission Reform**: As of February 2, 276 steel enterprises had completed the public announcement of ultra - low emission transformation, with Sichuan Dazhou Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. being the latest one to announce its progress on that day [7]. - **Coking Coal Price**: On February 2, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory cash - inclusive price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) at 1630 yuan/ton [8]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi - first - grade FOB) | 1470 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.29% | - 13.02% | - 7.55% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Ex - warehouse) | 1450 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 10.49% | - 5.23% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1240 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 9.73% | 5.08% | 7.83% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian Coal) | 1590 yuan/ton | 2.58% | 5.30% | 6.71% | 6.71% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi Coal) | 1780 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 4.71% | 16.34% | 19.46% | [9] Futures Market | Futures Market | Active Contract | Closing Price | High Price | Low Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Coke | 1680.5 yuan/ton | 1750.0 yuan/ton | 1356.74 yuan/ton | - 3.42% | 23,708 | - 29,542 | | - 19,903 | | | Coking Coal | | | | | | | 36,086 | | [12] Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts showed the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, port total coke inventory, 247 steel mills' coking plants, and total coke inventory from 2021 to 2026 [13][15][16]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts presented the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, all - sample independent coking plants, port coking coal, and 247 sample steel mills' coking coal from 2021 to 2026 [18][20][21]. - **Other Charts**: Included domestic steel mill production (blast furnace operating rate and steel mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, coal washery production (clean coal inventory and operating rate), and coking plant operation (coke profit per ton and coke oven capacity utilization rate) [26][28][31]. 后市研判 (Outlook) - **Coke**: The fundamentals remained stable, and futures were expected to stay in a low - level range due to lack of continuous support from coking coal [31]. - **Coking Coal**: Despite some positive factors, futures lacked the momentum for continuous growth and were expected to trade in a range [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - On Monday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weak downward movement, and a significant decline. The price center dropped significantly to below 16,000 yuan/ton during the session, closing down 3.73% at 15,980 yuan/ton. The premium of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 130 yuan/ton. Affected by the overall decline of the energy - chemical sector, it is expected that the rubber price will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [6]. - On Monday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weak downward movement, and a significant decline. The highest price reached 2,343 yuan/ton, and the lowest dropped to 2,243 yuan/ton, closing down 3.92% at 2,252 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 month spread narrowed to 26 yuan/ton. Supported by the bearish atmosphere, methanol futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend [6]. - On Monday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2603 showed a trend of weak volume, reducing positions, weak downward movement, and a significant decline. The highest price reached 485.6 yuan/barrel, and the lowest dropped to 449.0 yuan/barrel, closing down 7.02% at 449.0 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risks in the Middle East weakened and the hawkish expectations of the Federal Reserve increased, the crude oil premium significantly retracted, and the oil price started a short - term correction [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons or 0.07% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decrease of 5.03%; the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse of the Qingdao natural rubber sample decreased by 6.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.65 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.41 percentage points [8]. - As of January 30, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.86 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 50.96 percentage points. During the period, some semi - steel tire sample enterprises were supported by foreign trade orders, and the device production schedule increased slightly, supporting the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises; the shipment of all - steel tires was mediocre, and some enterprises still had production control, dragging down the capacity utilization rate to decline slightly [8]. - In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The production and sales volume reached a new high, and the scale of production and sales has remained above 30 million for three consecutive years, ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years. Among them, the cumulative production and sales of passenger cars reached 30.27 million and 30.103 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and 9.2%. The cumulative production and sales of Chinese commercial vehicles reached 4.261 million and 4.296 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12% and 10.9%. The production and sales returned to more than 4 million. In 2025, the annual automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% [9]. - In December 2025, about 95,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and an increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 in the same period last year. In total, in 2025, the total sales volume of the Chinese heavy - duty truck market reached a new high in the past four years, 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate remained at 87.03%, a week - on - week increase of 1.35%, a month - on - month increase of 0.45%, and a significant increase of 10.22% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0378 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,300 tons, and a significant increase of 112,100 tons compared with 1.9257 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate remained at 29.98%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5%. Meanwhile, the dimethyl ether operating rate remained at 7.24%, a week - on - week increase of 1.45%. The acetic acid operating rate remained at 83.37%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%. The MTBE operating rate remained at 58.15%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.47 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 4.79%. As of January 30, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 136 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 102 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the port methanol inventory in East and South China remained at 993,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 174,800 tons, and a significant increase of 229,500 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of January 29, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 454,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50,100 tons, and a significant decrease of 119,200 tons compared with 573,400 tons in the same period last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the number of active oil rigs in the United States was 409, a week - on - week decrease of 1 and a decrease of 63 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.696 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 36,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 456,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [11]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 423.8 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.295 million barrels and a significant increase of 8.628 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 24.785 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 278,000 barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 515,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States remained at 90.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 7.4 percentage points [12]. - As of January 27, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 96,982 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 18,190 contracts and a significant increase of 38,211 contracts or 65.02% compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts. On the other hand, as of January 27, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 217,962 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 12,191 contracts and a significant increase of 112,503 contracts or 106.68% compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts [12]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,900 yuan/ton | - 350 yuan/ton | 15,980 yuan/ton | - 380 yuan/ton | - 80 yuan/ton | + 30 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,255 yuan/ton | - 27 yuan/ton | 2,252 yuan/ton | - 68 yuan/ton | + 3 yuan/ton | - 41 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 453.0 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 449.0 yuan/barrel | - 21.8 yuan/barrel | + 4.0 yuan/barrel | + 21.9 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, SHFE rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][19] - Methanol: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [27][29][31] - Crude Oil: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, SHFE crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [39][40][42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp decline in gold and silver prices last Friday night, with silver hitting the跌停, was the result of a combination of short - term news - based shocks and market self - correction pressure. The rumored nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair by President Trump was the direct trigger. Warsh is considered a "hawk," and his potential tenure may lead to a tightening of dollar liquidity, pressuring the prices of non - interest - bearing safe - haven assets like gold and silver. [6][24] - Gold and silver also faced significant correction pressure due to factors such as the CME's multiple increases in margin ratios for gold and silver futures, the approaching Chinese Spring Festival with overseas volatility and margin call risks, the expiration of the January COMEX silver futures contracts leading to large - scale long - position liquidation, and the large profit - taking potential after the "epic" rise in silver prices since January. [7][25] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows a chart of the linkage between the US dollar index and the COMEX gold futures closing price, but no detailed written description of the weekly trend is provided other than the chart. [11] 3.1.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | January 30 | January 23 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | 4,907.50 | 4,983.10 | - 1.52% | | COMEX Silver | 85.25 | 103.26 | - 17.44% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 1,161.42 | 1,115.64 | 4.10% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 27,941.00 | 24,965.00 | 11.92% | | US Dollar Index | 97.12 | 97.50 | - 0.40% | | USD/Offshore RMB | 6.96 | 6.95 | 0.13% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.90 | 1.92 | - 0.02 | | S&P 500 | 6,939.03 | 6,915.61 | 0.34% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | 65.74 | 61.28 | 7.28% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 57.57 | 48.26 | 19.29% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 41.57 | 44.69 | - 6.98% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,087.10 | 1,086.53 | 0.57 | | iShare Gold ETF | 497.99 | 494.56 | 3.43 | [12] 3.2 Gold Price Reached a High and Then Declined - In the first half of the week, the continuous weakening of the US dollar index, which fell below the lowest level since the second half of 2025, reflected the accelerating global de - dollarization, and the gold price showed an accelerating upward trend. [14] - In the second half of the week, the market rumor about Kevin Warsh's potential nomination as the next Fed Chair led to concerns about tightened dollar liquidity, which directly pressured gold and silver prices. Additionally, after the short - term sharp rise in gold prices, the strong willingness of long - position holders to take profits exacerbated the sharp decline. [14] 3.3 Tracking of Other Indicators - On January 30, the combined holdings of SPDR and iShares gold ETFs reached 1,581.09 tons, an increase of 4.00 tons from the previous week. [18] - As precious metals declined last week, the decline in silver was more significant, and the gold - silver ratio rebounded from its low. Since January, the gold - silver ratio has been falling with the rise of precious metals, reaching the lowest level since 2011, which may indicate that silver was overvalued in the short term. [21] 3.4 Conclusion - The sharp decline in gold and silver prices last Friday night was due to short - term news shocks and market self - correction pressure. The rumored nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair was the direct trigger. [24] - Gold and silver also faced significant self - correction pressure, including increased margin ratios, the approaching Spring Festival in the domestic market, the expiration of the January COMEX silver futures contracts, and the large profit - taking potential after the sharp rise in silver prices. [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Overseas macro - atmosphere weakened, and copper prices fell from high levels. The recent copper price trend was a typical market driven by macro - sentiment and transmitted through the precious metal market. The sentiment reversed in the second half of last week, likely due to Trump's nomination of "hawkish" Kevin Warsh as a candidate for Fed Chairman, leading to a stronger dollar and a sharp drop in copper prices. In the future, the copper market will present a complex pattern of short - term sentiment fluctuations and medium - to long - term fundamental support [4][58]. - **Aluminum**: Overseas macro - atmosphere weakened, and aluminum prices also fell from high levels. Last week, aluminum prices first rose and then fell. The financial attribute of aluminum is relatively weaker than that of copper, resulting in less price fluctuation. High aluminum prices made downstream buyers generally wait - and - see, and the industrial support may increase as prices drop. Technically, the 24,000 level can be monitored [5][59]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - In the first half of the week, the US dollar index dropped significantly, benefiting the non - ferrous sector. The drop in the US dollar index and the sharp rise in gold reflected the intention of global asset allocation, i.e., "de - dollarization". In the second half of the week, Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh led to a stronger dollar, which first caused a sharp sell - off in the silver market and then affected the base metal market, causing copper prices to fall from high levels [9]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - The copper price trend was affected by macro - sentiment. The market was initially optimistic due to the rise of precious metals, but sentiment reversed later, causing copper prices to fall [4]. 3.2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - On January 30, the copper ore port inventory was 523,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 46,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 187,000 tons [25]. 3.2.3 Continuous Accumulation of Electrolytic Copper Inventory - On January 29, the Mysteel electrolytic copper social inventory was 335,800 tons, a weekly increase of 600 tons; the COMEX + LME inventory was 751,200 tons, a weekly increase of 23,600 tons. Overseas electrolytic copper inventory continued to accumulate, while the accumulation in China slowed down [27]. 3.2.4 Downstream Initial Processing - According to SMM on January 29, the operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises from January 23 to January 29 was 69.54%, a month - on - month increase of 1.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 54.9 percentage points [29]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, aluminum prices first rose and then fell. The main contract once reached the 26,000 level but then dropped rapidly due to the weakening of the commodity market and profit - taking [5][59]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - On January 30, the bauxite port inventory was 2,419.07 million tons, a decrease of 309,300 tons from last week and an increase of 649,070 tons compared with the same period in 2025 [42]. 3.3.3 Low Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - On January 29, the Mysteel electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 800,000 tons, an increase of 32,000 tons from last week; the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 501,900 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons from last week [46]. 3.3.4 Downstream Initial Processing - Last week, aluminum prices rose, and the processing fees in most regions decreased significantly, reflecting the increasing wait - and - see sentiment of downstream buyers. On January 29, the aluminum rod inventory was 140,500 tons, an increase of 17,200 tons from last week. High aluminum prices may suppress downstream demand, and the inventory accumulation speed can be continuously monitored [52][54].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 2 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色多数跌停 沪铜 今日铜价低开低走，沪铜持续减仓下行，午后主力期价跌破 10 万 关口并触及跌停。从盘面来看，继上周五夜盘沪银跌停，今日宏观 的悲观情绪持续蔓延，前期资金了结意愿持续上升，有色和贵金属 板块内的多数品种相继跌停。技术上，短期铜价跌破 1 月以来震荡区 间下沿，可持续关注夜盘该位置多空博弈。 沪铝 今日铝价低开低走，沪铝持续减仓下行，午后主力期价跌至 2.3 万一线，并触及跌停。从盘面来看，继上周五夜盘沪银跌停 ...