投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 19 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2605 震荡 偏弱 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 进口大豆成本，进口到港节 奏，油厂开工节奏，库存压力 豆油 2605 震荡 偏弱 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 美豆成本支撑，美国生物燃 料政策，美豆油库存，国内 大豆成本支撑，供应节奏， 油厂库存 棕榈 2605 震荡 偏弱 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 马棕产量和出口，印尼生 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡思路 | 市场氛围改善，焦煤继续上行 | | | | 偏强 | | 偏强 | | | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡思路 | 成本支撑走强，焦炭低位反弹 | | | | 偏强 | | 偏强 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点： ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weak. At the end of the year, steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously declining. The average daily hot metal production and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased again this week, both reaching relatively low levels. The profit situation of steel mills has not improved, and the weak demand pattern remains unchanged, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. Attention should be paid to whether the pre - Spring Festival stockpiling can bring about demand improvement. - Domestic port arrivals have increased significantly, and overseas miners' shipments have continued to increase, hitting a new high for the single - week within the year. They are actively ramping up production at the end of the year. Even though domestic mine production is weakening, the overall ore supply remains at a high level. - In general, iron ore demand continues to weaken, and supply remains high. The supply - strong and demand - weak situation leads to poor fundamentals of the ore. The ore price is under pressure at a high level, but the structural contradiction in the spot market is unresolved, providing support for the ore price. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillating trend, and caution should be exercised regarding the shift of the trading logic to the real - world situation [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 15,512.63, with a week - on - week increase of 81.21, an increase of 302.51 compared to the end of last month, and an increase of 465.74 compared to the same period (lunar calendar). - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 8,723.95, with a week - on - week decrease of 107.25, a decrease of 218.53 compared to the end of last month, and a decrease of 561.59 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]. Supply - Domestic 45 - port iron ore arrivals are 2,723.40, with a week - on - week increase of 242.90, a decrease of 93.70 compared to last month, and an increase of 426.20 compared to the same period (lunar calendar). - Global iron ore shipments are 3,592.50, with a week - on - week increase of 223.94, an increase of 314.08 compared to last month, and an increase of 498.90 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]. Demand - The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills is 226.55, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.65, a decrease of 8.13 compared to last month, and a decrease of 7.32 compared to the same period (lunar calendar). - 45 - port average daily ore removal volume is 313.45, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.74, a decrease of 18.13 compared to last month, and a decrease of 22.42 compared to the same period (lunar calendar). - 247 steel mills' imported ore daily consumption is 280.56, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.71, a decrease of 8.87 compared to last month, and a decrease of 9.21 compared to the same period (lunar calendar). - The weekly average of main - port iron ore transactions is 92.13, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.71, a decrease of 11.59 compared to last month, and a decrease of 22.03 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The steel price of rebar 2605 will maintain a low - level oscillation in the short, medium, and intraday periods, with an intraday tendency of slightly weak oscillation, mainly due to the game between expectations and reality [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all oscillatory, with the intraday being slightly weak, presenting a low - level oscillation state. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, causing the steel price to continue oscillating [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar have stabilized. Rebar production has slightly increased but remains at an annual low, providing support for steel prices, though the sustainability needs to be monitored. Meanwhile, rebar demand is running steadily, with high - frequency demand indicators increasing but still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the downstream industries have not improved. Demand will continue to decline seasonally, putting pressure on steel prices. Currently, the supply and demand of rebar are running steadily, the off - season fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factor is the policy expectation. Under the game between expectations and reality, rebar will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The overall situation of treasury bond futures is that there is pressure above and support below, and they will mainly be in oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is weak, and the view reference is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated and rebounded. In the long - term, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the monetary policy environment next year is expected to be loose, with interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts still anticipated. After continuous corrections, the current market interest rate implies a weak expectation of interest rate cuts, and the support for treasury bond futures is strong. In the short - term, the current market risk - aversion sentiment is weak, the urgency of interest rate cuts in the short - term is not strong, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is also insufficient. Overall, treasury bond futures have pressure above and support below, and will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlook of oscillation, oscillation, and weak oscillation respectively. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakening, and the upward driving force is not strong [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak oscillation. The overall view is wide - range oscillation, and the core logic is the weakening supply - demand pattern and lack of upward driving force [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved. Steel mill production is weakening, and their profitability has not improved, leading to weak ore demand and downward pressure on prices. At the same time, domestic port arrivals have increased significantly, and miners' shipments have reached a new high for the year. Overall ore supply remains high despite a contraction in domestic ore supply. Although there are short - term positive factors supporting the price to return to a high level, the continuous weakening of demand and high - level supply result in a poor fundamental situation. The price will continue to oscillate under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3]

宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-19 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着国内云南和海南天胶产区陆续进入停割季，未来国产全乳胶供应预期逐渐下降 ...

降13.69万吨，高频成交同样低位运行，均降至近年来同期低位， 且主要下游冷轧产量在回落，外需表现一般，热卷需求韧性趋弱。 目前来看，热轧卷板供需两端均大幅走弱，产业格局并未好转，库 存高位去化有限，价格继续承压，相对利好的是政策利好预期，预 计热卷价格延续震荡寻底态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 数据来源：我的钢铁网 宝城期货金融研究所 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议，请务必阅读文末免责条款。 150 200 250 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙1-5楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 热轧卷板周度数据（20251219） 期货研究报告 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 周度产量 291.91 -16.80 319.01 -27.10 306.09 -14.18 高炉产能利用率（%） 84.93 -0.99 87.98 -3.05 87.80 -2.87 表观需求量 298.28 -13.69 320.22 -21.94 315.60 -17.32 冷轧卷板周产量 86.09 -0.22 84.76 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][5] 2) Report's Core View The report suggests that the methanol 2605 contract is expected to run in a relatively strong manner in the short - term and intraday, while remaining in a range - bound pattern in the medium - term. The core logic is that after the digestion of previous positive factors, methanol futures faced supply pressure and the drag of coal futures price decline, but with the stabilization and rebound of coal futures prices, it may stabilize and consolidate [1][5] 3) Summary by Relevant Content - **Time - frame Views** - Short - term (within one week): The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be in a range - bound state [1] - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be in a range - bound state [1] - Intraday: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be relatively strong [1][5] - **Driving Logic** - Positive factors are digested, and methanol supply pressure in China is increasing. The sharp decline in domestic coal futures prices has dragged down methanol futures, causing them to fall back. Although port and inland inventories have slightly decreased, they are still at high levels, and downstream demand improvement is insufficient, with olefin disk profits weakening [5] - The stabilization and rebound of domestic coal futures prices have driven methanol futures to maintain a range - bound pattern on Thursday night, and it is expected to stabilize and consolidate on Friday [5]

300 550 春 节 前 15 周 春 节 前 12 周 春 节 前 9 周 春 节 前 6 周 前 3 后 3 后 6 后 9 后 12 后 15 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 螺纹钢社会库存（农历） 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 螺纹钢周度数据（20251219） 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778号 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 周度产量 181.68 2.90 206.08 -24.40 227.88 -46.20 高炉产能利用率（%） 84.93 -0.99 87.98 -3.05 87.80 -2.87 表观需求量 208.64 5.55 227.94 -19.30 225.35 -16.71 钢联建材成交周均值 10.05 0.23 10.46 -0.41 11.38 -1.33 总库存 452.54 -26.96 531.48 -78.94 447.64 4.90 厂内库存 139.54 -1.26 146.73 -7.19 145.25 -5.71 社会库存 313.00 -25.70 384 ...