1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Today, Treasury bond futures oscillated with a slight decline. The inflation data in December showed that CPI rose moderately and PPI's decline narrowed, indicating positive repair of price indices under the continuous promotion of consumption - boosting and anti - involution policies. Considering the strong resilience of the December manufacturing PMI data, the short - term possibility of interest rate cuts continued to decline, putting pressure on Treasury bond futures prices. However, as the prices of Treasury bond cash bonds fell, the implied interest rate cut expectations in the Treasury bond yields faded, and the anchoring effect of policy interest rates emerged, limiting the downside space of Treasury bond futures. In the medium - to - long term, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still requires a relatively loose monetary and credit environment on the policy side, so there is still support for Treasury bond futures. Overall, it is expected to be mainly in an oscillatory consolidation in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry News - On January 9, the People's Bank of China conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered manner, with an operating rate of 1.4%. Since there were no 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities on this day, a net investment of 34 billion yuan was achieved. - On January 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in December 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.8% year - on - year, with the increase expanding to a new high since March 2023; month - on - month, it turned from a decline to an increase, rising 0.2%. The national industrial producer price decreased 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared with the previous month; month - on - month, it rose 0.2%, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month [5] Related Charts - The report includes charts such as the trends of TL2603, T2603, TF2603, TS2603, the Treasury bond yield - to - maturity curve, and the central bank's open - market operations, with data sources from iFinD and the Baocheng Futures Research Institute [6][8][10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Opened lower and then rebounded during the day, with increased positions and a recovery that almost offset the previous night's decline. Short - term, the game between long and short positions intensified, and the profit - taking intention of funds rose. The weak industrial reality also pressured the futures price. The macro atmosphere dominated the price trend, and with the warming of the atmosphere during the day, commodities generally rebounded. It is advisable to continuously monitor the support of the 10 - day moving average in the short term [6]. - **沪铝**: Significantly increased positions and rose, approaching the previous high. Since Wednesday, the macro atmosphere cooled and non - ferrous metals generally declined, but the aluminum price was relatively strong. This is because its macro attribute is relatively weaker than copper, and the expectation of aluminum replacing copper has been fermenting since December, with strong industrial expectations. However, the industrial side is still in a weak reality stage, and the electrolytic aluminum inventory has increased significantly. Technically, the aluminum price faces pressure at the 2021 high. It is necessary to continuously monitor the game between long and short positions [7]. - **沪镍**: Declined significantly with increased positions yesterday and rebounded after hitting the bottom today. Since the end of December, the nickel price has rebounded significantly, so the recent correction has also been relatively large. At present, the industry is still in a situation of over - supply, which puts pressure on the futures price, but news from Indonesia has reversed the industry's expectations. Technically, it is necessary to continuously monitor the game between long and short positions at the 140,000 mark [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: SMM predicts that the operating rate of the copper strip industry will continue to decline to 67.2% in January. In January, the copper price continued to hit new highs, and the terminal market's carrying capacity was on the verge of the limit. Some downstream enterprises even planned to start the Spring Festival holiday in advance, and the industry as a whole showed a "lying flat" state. The production and operation pressure of copper strip enterprises has increased significantly. The high - level operation of the copper price has continuously suppressed the release of new orders, and the order volume at the beginning of the month has dropped significantly. In addition, the adjustment of the recycled copper - related policy has led to double dilemmas of difficult raw material procurement and a significant increase in costs for tin - phosphorus bronze strip enterprises, and they have started to reduce production. Some enterprises plan to carry out year - end equipment overhauls, which also have an impact on the actual output in January. In December 2025, the overall operating rate of copper strip enterprises was 68.21%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.09 percentage points. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises was 76.95%, that of medium - sized enterprises was 54.21%, and that of small enterprises was 59.02% [10]. - **Aluminum**: On January 8th, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 718,000 tons, with a cumulative inventory increase of 80,000 tons before the New Year's Day [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, global copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, and copper month - spread [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, aluminum month - spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, aluminum rod inventory, and Shanghai - London ratio [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: The report offers charts on nickel basis, nickel month - spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39].

姓名：涂伟华 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 9 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 核心观点 焦炭：截至 1 月 9 日当周，样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量合 计 110.45 万吨，周环比增 0.9 万吨；下游 247 家钢厂铁水日均产量 229.5 万吨，周环比增 2.07 万吨。本周，下游钢厂逐渐复产，但复产速 度偏缓，焦炭基本面改善幅度有限，相对利好仍在于上游焦煤的供应端强 预期。综上，焦炭自身基本面支撑仍较为乏力，不过进入新一年度后，经 济政策预期、"反内卷"政策预期，以及下游冬储补库预期的向上驱动渐 显，带动焦炭期货低位反弹。 焦煤：截至 1 月 9 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 73.4 万 吨，周环比增 4.4 万吨，较去年同期产量偏低 6.9 万吨。需求方面，截至 1 月 9 日当周，样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量合计 110.45 万吨，周环比增 0.9 万吨。整体来看，元旦过后，焦煤预计进入供需两增 格局，短期基本面难言明显改善，但经济政策预期、"反内卷"政策预 期、下游冬储补库预 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar showed a weak oscillation, with a daily decline of 1.10%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Supported by the positive sentiment in the commodity market, the rebar price rebounded from a low level. However, with continuous supply increase and weak demand, fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and the price in the off - season remains under pressure. The cost support is a relative positive factor. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated, with a daily decline of 1.02%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the positive commodity sentiment and the strong performance of raw materials have led to a rebound of the hot - rolled coil price from a low level. But the fundamentals have not improved under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the trend will maintain an oscillating state. Be cautious of the trading logic returning to the industrial side, and pay attention to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily decline of 0.73%, trading volume decreased, and open interest increased. At present, the supply of iron ore is high, while the improvement of demand is limited, and the fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, so the ore price continues to be under pressure. The positive factors are the positive commodity sentiment and the pre - holiday restocking expectation. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price maintains a high - level oscillating state. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In December 2025, China's PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared with the previous month; it increased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month. The purchasing price of industrial producers decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points compared with the previous month; it increased by 0.4% month - on - month, with the increase expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared with the previous month. In 2025, the PPI decreased by 2.6% for the whole year, and the purchasing price of industrial producers decreased by 3.0% [7]. - The Ministry of Water Resources aims to maintain large - scale and high - level water infrastructure construction and investment in 2026, ensuring a good start for water - related work during the 15th Five - Year Plan period [8]. - The iron ore project in Amapá, Brazil, owned 35.7% by British company Cadence Minerals, has obtained a preliminary environmental permit. The project is working on restarting production, with the initial restart time expected to be in 2026. The plant is expected to produce 380,000 - 400,000 tons of iron ore concentrate annually, and the production may gradually increase to 5.5 million tons per year [9]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,260, 3,200, and 3,340 respectively, with price changes of - 30, - 10, and - 10. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,270, 3,190, and 3,306 respectively, with price changes of - 20, - 20, and - 13. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,980 with no change, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,090 with no change. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 10, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,170 [10]. - The price of PB fines at Shandong ports was 817 with a change of 2, the price of Tangshan iron ore concentrate was 782 with no change. The ocean freight from Australia was 7.92 (down 0.26) and from Brazil was 21.59 (down 0.46). The SGX swap price (current month) was 107.85 (down 1.00), and the Platts index (CFR) was 108.20 (down 1.05) [10]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures main contract was 3,144, with a decline of 1.10%, the highest price was 3,174, the lowest was 3,128, the trading volume was 1,169,507 (down 181,095), and the open interest was 1,714,863 (down 66,939) [12]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures main contract was 3,294, with a decline of 1.02%, the highest price was 3,317, the lowest was 3,274, the trading volume was 515,603 (down 181,277), and the open interest was 1,417,090 (down 23,805) [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract was 814.5, with a decline of 0.73%, the highest price was 819.0, the lowest was 809.5, the trading volume was 270,327 (down 172,278), and the open interest was 639,884 (up 3,210) [12]. 4. Related Charts - The section includes charts related to steel inventory (rebar inventory, hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (port inventory, steel mill inventory, domestic mine inventory), and steel mill production (blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization, proportion of profitable steel mills, etc.) [14][22][29]. 5. Future Outlook - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern has weakened, inventory has increased significantly, and construction steel mills are resuming production. The weekly output of rebar increased by 28,200 tons month - on - month, and supply continues to rise with room for further increase. Demand continues to weaken seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 254,800 tons month - on - month. Although high - frequency trading volume has rebounded due to holiday factors, both are still at low levels in recent years. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [39]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern has changed little. Plate steel mills' production has stabilized, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil increased by 10,000 tons month - on - month. Supply continues to rise and remains at a relatively high level, and inventory is also high, so supply pressure persists. Demand has weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 24,300 tons month - on - month, and daily high - frequency trading volume is at a low level. Although the high output of downstream cold - rolled products provides some support for hot - rolled coil demand, industrial contradictions are accumulating. It is expected that the price will maintain an oscillating state, and attention should be paid to demand performance [40]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and inventory continues to rise. Steel mills are resuming production, and the terminal consumption of ore has rebounded from a low level, but the overall increase is small. The improvement space of ore demand is limited, and the positive effect is not strong. Port arrivals have increased, and miner shipments have declined from a high level. Overseas ore supply is high, and domestic ore supply is shrinking, so the overall supply pressure remains. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillating state under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an explicit industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of coking coal have not improved substantially, with supply increasing steadily and demand remaining weak. The upside potential of futures prices may be limited, and short - term chasing of high prices requires caution [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Performance - At the beginning of the new year, coking coal futures prices rose strongly, with the main contract hitting the daily limit on Wednesday and closing up 3% at Thursday's mid - session. Spot prices in the main production areas only increased slightly, but the transaction volume improved and the auction failure rate decreased significantly. The rise in futures prices was mainly due to the warming sentiment in the commodity market [2]. Supply Situation - Domestically, the supply of coking coal is increasing steadily. From January 1st to 5th, 49 coal mines resumed production, involving a production capacity of 75.05 million tons, and the January output is expected to increase compared to December last year, with the peak production expected in March. As of the week of January 8th, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 85.3%, and the daily average output of raw coal was 1.899 million tons, with week - on - week increases of 5.7% and 127,000 tons respectively. In December last year, Mongolian coal imports were high, with the average daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port reaching 191,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.14% and a year - on - year increase of 130%. After the New Year's Day holiday, the customs clearance volume decreased but remained at a relatively high level [3]. Demand Situation - The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills increased by 8,500 tons week - on - week to 2.2743 million tons, showing a slight recovery. However, the incremental space for raw material demand is questionable. The profitability of steel mills has not improved, with the loss - making proportion of long - process steel mills still large, and the profit - making proportion of 247 steel mills being 38.10%. The downstream steel market is in the traditional off - season, and industrial contradictions are accumulating, with the inventory of some varieties significantly higher than in previous years, which restricts the steel mills' motivation to increase production. Therefore, the recovery space for pig iron output in the off - season is limited, and coking coal demand is unlikely to improve. Attention should be paid to the winter storage and replenishment rhythm and intensity of downstream steel mills and coking plants [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term view is to wait and see with an upward trend, as the short - term safe - haven demand rises due to the cooling macro - atmosphere. For copper, the long - term view is bullish, but short - term多头了结意愿强 due to the cooling macro - atmosphere [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Short - term: The market is in a state of oscillation. The short - term safe - haven demand for gold increases as the macro - atmosphere cools, providing support for the gold price. The price of Shanghai gold reached above the 1000 - yuan mark in the night session, and New York gold is near the 4500 - dollar mark. Technically, attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 1000 - yuan mark [1][3] - Medium - term: The market is strong [1] - Intraday: The market is oscillating with a slightly upward trend [1][3] - Reference view: Wait and see [1][3] Copper - Short - term: The market is in a state of oscillation. The short - term macro - atmosphere cools, causing the non - ferrous sector to decline generally, increasing the willingness of 多头 to settle, and the futures price drops from a high level. The intraday market is oscillating with a slightly downward trend, and the open interest decreases significantly. The main futures price once fell below the 100,000 - yuan mark and then recovered. Technically, attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 100,000 - yuan mark [1][4] - Medium - term: The market is strong [1] - Intraday: The market is oscillating with a slightly downward trend [1][4] - Reference view: Bullish in the long run [1][4]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the short - term and intraday, and oscillating in the medium - term. Investors are advised to pay attention to the support level at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the iron ore price fluctuates at a high level under the game between bulls and bears [2]. - The iron ore supply is relatively high, and the improvement in demand is limited. The fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, and the price continues to face pressure. The relatively positive factors are the warm commodity sentiment and the pre - holiday restocking expectation. The iron ore price maintains a high - level oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking situation [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - The short - term view of iron ore 2605 is oscillating and slightly bullish, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and slightly bullish. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic of high - level oscillation of ore prices under the game between bulls and bears [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakly stable. Port inventories are rising at a high level. Steel mills are continuously resuming production, and the terminal consumption of ore is rising from a low level, but the profit situation has not improved, and the off - season steel market cannot bear a large - scale increase in production, so the demand improvement space is limited. At the same time, the arrival of goods at domestic ports has increased, and there is room for further increase. Even if the shipments of miners and domestic ore production shrink, the supply pressure of ore remains. The ore fundamentals have not improved, and the price is under pressure. The positive factors are the warm commodity sentiment and the pre - holiday restocking expectation, resulting in a high - level oscillating trend of ore prices [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly and maintain a volatile and weak trend on Friday, January 9, 2026, as the previous bullish factors have gradually been digested [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Trends**: Short - term and medium - term trends are volatile, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The end of the war between Thailand and Cambodia weakens geopolitical risks, dispelling the expectation of a decline in Southeast Asian rubber supply and reducing bullish drivers. Domestic Yunnan and Hainan natural rubber production areas are in the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex, while Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. After the previous bullish factors were digested, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures fell from a high on Thursday night [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Trends**: Short - term and medium - term trends are volatile, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: Due to the tight circulation of northern goods and downstream replenishment demand, the spot price of butadiene has risen sharply. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, leading to some device load reductions or shutdowns and a decline in supply expectations. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. The Shanghai rubber futures maintain a volatile and strong pattern, indirectly supporting synthetic rubber futures. After the previous bullish factors were digested, the domestic synthetic rubber futures fell from a high on Thursday night [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of methanol 2605 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak. It is expected to run weakly [1][5] - The pre - holiday overseas supply "hard contraction" was the key factor supporting the upward movement of methanol prices. The supply in Iran, a major import source, is severely disrupted. The reduction of domestic port methanol inventory led to the recovery of port spot prices, strengthening the basis and boosting bullish sentiment. After the previous positive factors were digested, and with the high - level correction of domestic coal futures prices, methanol futures showed an oscillatory and weak trend on Thursday night and may maintain this pattern on Friday [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol 2605 Analysis - Short - term: oscillatory [1] - Medium - term: oscillatory [1] - Intraday: weak [1] - View reference: weak operation [1] - Core logic: coal price decline leads to the oscillatory and weak trend of methanol [1] Methanol (MA) Price and Market Analysis - Intraday view: weak [5] - Medium - term view: oscillatory [5] - Reference view: weak operation [5] - Core logic: pre - holiday overseas supply contraction, supply disruption in Iran, inventory reduction at domestic ports, and then the digestion of positive factors and coal price correction [5]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 偏强 震荡 | 震荡 | 强势 | 偏强震荡 | 供应扰动支撑，焦煤低位反弹 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 偏强 震荡 | 震荡 | 强势 | 偏强震荡 | 原料支撑显现，焦炭偏强运行 | 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1110.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 0.9%。整 体来看，元旦过后，焦煤预计进入供需两增格局，短期基本面难言明显改善，但经济政策预 期、"反内卷"政策预期、下游冬储补库预期，以及春节煤矿减产预期等利好驱动渐显，带动 焦煤期货低位反弹。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌 ...