1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Friday. With the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation fulfilled, the short - term positive factors are exhausted. The rubber market has shifted to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. It is expected that the contract may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the future [5]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly closing higher on Friday. Suppressed by the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected that the contract may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the future [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating downward, and slightly closing lower on Friday. After the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was fulfilled, the short - term positive factors are exhausted, and the market has shifted to a weak supply - demand fundamental. It is expected that the contract may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the future [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 58.66 million tons, a decrease of 0.56 million tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.95%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 8.32%, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.07%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 3.44 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.96 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.27 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.65 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.70%, a week - on - week increase of 1.09 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.40 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.70%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.61 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.30 percentage points [9]. - In the terminal retail segment, in August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the automobile circulation industry's prosperity. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released that the China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index in August 2025 was 50.9%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [10]. - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 1% month - on - month decrease from July and a 35% increase from the same period last year. In the first 8 months of 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market reached 710,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [10]. Methanol - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.39%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26%, and a 1.53% decrease compared to the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.8132 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 106,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 84,200 tons, and a decrease of 30,200 tons compared to the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11%. The acetic acid operating rate was 75.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.84%. The MTBE operating rate was 57.66%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.33 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.58 percentage points [11]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 183 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 41 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 26 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.3298 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 62,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 395,600 tons, and an increase of 487,200 tons compared to the same period last year. As of the week of September 17, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 340,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,600 tons, and a decrease of 94,200 tons compared to the same period last year [12][13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 416, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a decrease of 72 compared to the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.482 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 282,000 barrels per day [14]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 415 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 9.285 million barrels and a decrease of 2.152 million barrels compared to the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 23.561 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 296,000 barrels. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 405.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 504,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 93.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.60 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.2 percentage points [14]. - As of September 9, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 81,844 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 20,584 contracts and a 32.95% decrease compared to the August average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 205,775 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 34,954 contracts and a 1.71% increase compared to the August average. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week, and those in the Brent crude oil futures market also decreased significantly [15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,800 yuan/ton | - 250 yuan/ton | 15,535 yuan/ton | - 35 yuan/ton | - 735 yuan/ton | + 35 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,270 yuan/ton | - 32 yuan/ton | 2,361 yuan/ton | + 19 yuan/ton | - 91 yuan/ton | - 19 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 465.1 yuan/barrel | + 0.3 yuan/barrel | 487.0 yuan/barrel | - 4.8 yuan/barrel | - 21.9 yuan/barrel | + 5.1 yuan/barrel | [17] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, methanol basis, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, crude oil basis, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, etc. [18][20][26]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 19 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 预计国债期货低位震荡为主 核心观点 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 4 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 今日国债期货均震荡下跌。随着国债期货从前期底部持续反弹，隐含降 息预期已经有所体现，而短期内全面降息的必要性不强，国债期货上方存在 较大阻力。从国内外经济金融环境来看，8 月信贷数据表现偏弱，消费增速 边际减弱，通胀数据表现偏弱，四季度宏观政策稳需求的预期升温。加上海 外美联储 9 月降息，年内预计还有 2 次降息，未来货币宽松 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.73%, and the volume and open interest contracted. The supply - demand pattern has improved, but downstream demand concerns remain. With cost increases and policy expectations as positives, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated with a daily increase of 0.18%, volume decreased and open interest increased. Demand resilience is weakening, supply remains high, the supply - demand pattern has weakened, inventory has increased again, and coil prices are under pressure. With cost increases and production restrictions as positives, the subsequent trend is expected to be weakly fluctuating. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore was strongly fluctuating with a daily increase of 0.81%, and the volume and open interest expanded. Pre - holiday ore demand is okay, supporting high - level prices, but demand resilience will weaken, supply is rising, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken. High - valued ore prices have limited upward momentum, and the trend is expected to continue high - level fluctuations. Be wary of intensified industrial contradictions [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce hopes that the EU will not weaponize tariffs, eliminate market barriers, and encourage fair competition, and jointly create a fair market environment for the industry [6]. - Shanghai has optimized and adjusted policies on the pilot personal housing property tax. Eligible homebuyers for the first - set home are exempt from property tax [7]. - Ningxia has released a draft plan for air pollution prevention and control in the winter - spring of 2025 - 2026, requiring 3 steel enterprises to complete key project renovations by the end of December 2025 [8]. Spot Market - Rebar: Shanghai price is 3,230, Tianjin price is 3,210, and the national average is 3,298 [9]. - Hot - rolled coil: Shanghai price is 3,420, Tianjin price is 3,320, and the national average is 3,444 [9]. - Other: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 799, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 798 [9]. Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease (%) | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,172 | 0.73 | 1,250,591 | 1,970,510 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3,374 | 0.18 | 459,672 | 1,413,153 | | Iron ore | 807.5 | 0.81 | 379,811 | 574,521 | [13] Related Charts - Include charts on steel and iron ore inventories (rebar, hot - rolled coil, national 45 - port iron ore, etc.), production conditions (247 - sample steel mill blast furnace start - up rate, etc.) [15][20][30]. 后市研判 - Rebar: Supply has decreased due to losses, demand has improved but is still at a low level in recent years. With cost and policy as positives, steel prices are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to demand [39]. - Hot - rolled coil: Supply has increased, demand has weakened, and the supply - demand pattern has deteriorated. With cost and production restrictions as positives, the price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. Attention should be paid to demand [39]. - Iron ore: Demand is okay before the holiday but will weaken, supply is rising, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken. High - valued ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. Be wary of contradictions [40].

邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 19 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 强预期支撑，煤焦高位震荡 核心观点 焦炭：截至 9 月 19 日当周，样本焦化厂和钢厂焦炭日均产量合计 113.37 万吨，周环比基本持平；全国 247 家钢厂铁水日均产量 241.02 万吨，周 环比小幅增加 0.47 万吨。库存方面，周内焦炭库存向下游转移，独立焦 化厂库存 66.41 万吨，周环比降 1.43 万吨；钢厂焦化厂焦炭库存 644.67 万吨，周环比增 11.38 万吨；总库存 915.18 万吨，周环比 8.94 万吨。 随着国庆长 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices stabilized and rebounded today, with the decline in open interest slowing. The Fed's interest rate cut has reduced short - term disturbances from long - position liquidation. The industry is entering the peak season, and the decline in copper prices may increase downstream replenishment willingness. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 80,000 level [5]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rose slightly in the morning but fell continuously during the day, with open interest continuously decreasing. After the Fed's interest rate cut, previous long - positions were continuously liquidated. Downstream replenishment willingness is weak, and electrolytic aluminum social inventory has been accumulating this week. Technically, Shanghai aluminum faced significant technical pressure after hitting a high in March and then falling back [6]. - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel rose in the morning, with the main contract price approaching the 122,000 level, and fluctuated during the day, with open interest continuously decreasing. The Fed's interest rate cut has reduced short - term disturbances from long - position liquidation. Domestically, nickel ore port inventory and SHFE nickel inventory are continuously rising, which is negative for nickel prices. Technically, nickel prices rebounded with a reduction in positions, indicating strong short - covering willingness. As macro disturbances decline, the futures price is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On September 16, 2025, the construction mobilization meeting of the ±800 kV UHV DC transmission project from Southeast Tibet to the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area was held. The project, with a total investment of about 53.2 billion yuan, will be fully operational in 2029, and will directly boost copper cable demand. This week, copper cable downstream industries' demand was weak due to high copper prices. State Grid orders remained flat, automotive wiring harness orders were stable, and construction and two - grid orders are expected to be released in October. High copper prices have also weakened enterprises' procurement willingness, leading to a decrease in raw material inventory and an increase in sample enterprises' finished - product inventory ratio. The enameled wire industry showed a slight increase in the operating rate but faced pressure on new orders, with new orders decreasing by 1.07 percentage points month - on - month [9][10]. - **Nickel**: On September 19, the price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 121,400 - 124,100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,750 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,350 yuan/ton, a 150 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was in the range of - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report presents charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, electrolytic copper domestic explicit inventory, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: There are charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The domestic asphalt futures 2511 contract is expected to maintain a stable and fluctuating trend, benefiting from the rebound of crude oil futures prices and the improvement of the domestic asphalt industry factors under the background of increasing supply and demand [2][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Crude Oil Impact on Asphalt - The trading logic of the crude oil futures market comes from three aspects: macro - factor drive, supply factors, and increased geopolitical premium in the oil market. After the game between the bearish expectation of increased supply and the enhanced geopolitical risk, the domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a stable and fluctuating trend, providing cost support for asphalt futures [3]. Domestic Asphalt Supply - Since September, the processing profit of domestic asphalt manufacturers has recovered, and the refinery production enthusiasm has increased. The capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt has rebounded, and the supply pressure has increased. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 92 domestic asphalt refineries was 36.4%, a week - on - week increase of 5.9%. The total domestic asphalt production last week was 60.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.9 tons [4]. Domestic Asphalt Demand and Inventory - Since September, the downstream consumption capacity has increased. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic sample modified asphalt enterprises was 18.5% at the beginning of September, a week - on - week increase of 2.6%. The asphalt social inventory rate has decreased slightly, showing signs of destocking. As of the week of September 11, 2025, the domestic asphalt sample factory inventory decreased by 24.6% year - on - year, and the sample social inventory decreased by 21.5% year - on - year [5].

Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures' morning report on thermal coal dated September 19, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The domestic thermal coal price maintained a weak and stable trend this week. The market is in a bearish sentiment, and the opportunity for the coal price to stop falling and stabilize may lie in the winter storage replenishment of terminal power plants [4] Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Market Conditions - As of September 11, the quotation of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 676 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 6 yuan/ton [4] Supply Side - The impact of the September 3 parade on coal mine production has basically faded. After entering the new natural month, the thermal coal output has gradually returned to the pre - parade level, and the main producing area coal mines maintained normal production [4] Demand Side - As of the week of September 4, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 245.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.7 million tons; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 355.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.3 million tons. The domestic thermal coal demand has significantly declined from the summer peak [4]

Report Overview - The report provides investment analysis and market insights for coking coal and coke futures on September 19, 2025 [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Coking coal and coke futures are expected to oscillate in the short - and medium - term, with an intraday bias towards a slightly stronger oscillation [1][5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - For coking coal (JM2601), the short - term, medium - term, and reference views are all "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation, slightly stronger". The core logic is that there is insufficient upward driving force, and the futures will oscillate [1]. - For coke (J2601), the short - term, medium - term, and reference views are all "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation, slightly stronger". The core logic is the game between bulls and bears, leading to high - level oscillation [1]. 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic Coking Coal (JM) - **Spot Market**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1140.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat [5]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: After the September 3rd parade, coking coal production gradually recovered but remained at a low level. Mongolian coal imports returned to the annual high, and there is no obvious contradiction on the supply side. On the demand side, there is no significant change from the previous period. In the context of the sluggish real estate and infrastructure, the building materials demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" season shows the characteristic of "no peak season" [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Coking coal is in a stalemate between bulls and bears. The upward momentum depends on the "anti - involution" drive. In the short term, the main contract is expected to maintain range - bound oscillation. Follow - up attention should be paid to whether there are relevant measures in the coal industry [5]. Coke (J) - **Spot Market**: The latest quotation of the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.29%. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1480 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 6.47% [6]. - **Futures Market**: Recently, there are again disturbances related to "anti - involution", but the real - world fundamentals have not improved significantly. The market is in a stalemate between bulls and bears, and the J2601 contract maintains range - bound oscillation. Under the background of the domestic "anti - involution" rectification, coke futures are expected to be more likely to rise than to fall. Follow - up attention should be paid to whether there are specific measures for "anti - involution" in the coal industry [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile, with an overall view of volatility. The core logic is that there is still a long - term expectation of interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile. The overall situation of treasury bond futures is that there is pressure above and support below, and they will mainly be in a volatile consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile. The core logic is that the long - term expectation of interest rate cuts remains, while the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures were all volatile and declined. According to the macro - economic data in August, credit data was weak, the marginal consumption growth rate decreased, and inflation data was weak, increasing the expectation of stable demand from macro - policies in the fourth quarter. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, shifting its focus from "controlling inflation" to "stabilizing employment". The external monetary environment turning loose weakens the constraints on the RMB exchange rate, and the expectation of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the fourth quarter still exists. However, the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low. As treasury bond futures have rebounded from the previous bottom, the implied expectation of interest rate cuts has been reflected, and the short - term rebound space is limited [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-09-19 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250715 | 2025/06 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.20 | 5.40 | 4.70 | | 20250831 | 2025/08 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.40 | 49.30 | 49.10 | | 20250831 | 2025/08 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.30 | 50.10 | 50.30 | | 20250915 | 2025/08 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 25668.00 11307.00 | 30323.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250912 | 2025/08 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 11.70 | 11.80 | 12.20 | | 202509 ...