1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Thanks to short - term favorable factors, iron ore prices are at a high level, but supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, the iron ore fundamentals are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend will maintain high - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the pre - holiday restocking situation of steel mills [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Short - term Favorable Factors Supporting Iron Ore Prices - The structural contradiction in the spot market remains unsolved. Although the inventory at 47 domestic ports has exceeded 167 million tons, the inventory of available varieties has dropped to a very low level, so the total inventory contradiction has not affected the market [3] - Recently, the prices of resource - related varieties have been strong, especially copper and silver. Iron ore, with the strongest financial attributes among ferrous metals, has been boosted by the rise in resource prices [3] - The variety arbitrage logic provides support. The current black - metal positions still favor iron ore long positions and short positions in other varieties, which is also beneficial to the iron ore price trend [3] - The restocking expectation of steel mills is being realized. The inventory in steel mills has increased for two consecutive weeks, and the spot trading volume at ports has also increased, leading to an improvement in iron ore demand [3] Limited Improvement Space in Demand - At the beginning of the new year, steel mills started to resume production, and iron ore demand improved. The latest daily average hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills and the daily consumption of imported ore were 2.2743 million tons and 2.8067 million tons respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 0.0085 million tons and 0.0063 million tons [4] - However, the improvement space of iron ore demand is limited. On one hand, the profitability of steel mills has not improved, and the loss - making proportion of long - process steel mills is still large. The profit - making ratio among 247 steel mills is 38.10%. On the other hand, the downstream steel market is in the traditional off - season, and industrial contradictions are accumulating, which restricts the production - increasing motivation of steel mills [4] - The relatively positive aspect is that as the Spring Festival approaches, steel mills have the motivation to restock. In the past five years, the average inventory in steel mills before the festival increased by about 16.3 million tons, and restocking was mostly concentrated in the four weeks before the festival, which will form short - term support for iron ore demand and prices [4] High Supply Pressure - The arrival volume at domestic ports has recovered as expected. The latest value at 47 domestic ports is 28.247 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.969 million tons, remaining at a high level this year [5] - After the year - end shipment rush, the overseas miners' shipments have declined from the high, but the global iron ore shipment volume is still higher than the same period last year. The cumulative global iron ore shipments in December increased by 13.74 million tons and 19.55 million tons respectively compared with the previous month and the same period last year, and the floating inventory is high, so the arrival volume at ports will remain relatively high [5] - The port iron ore inventory has continuously reached new highs. The latest inventory at 47 domestic ports and the number of ships at ports are 167.2179 million tons and 109 respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 11.1135 million tons and 14 respectively. The total inventory contradiction has not been alleviated, and the de - stocking pressure is still significant [5] - In the long term, more new production capacity will be put into use in 2026. Under a relatively neutral expectation, the supply increment may exceed 60 million tons, which will exacerbate the loose supply pattern and put pressure on iron ore prices [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期降息概率较低，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡小幅回调。最新公布的 12 月制造业 PMI 重回扩张区间，宏观数据表 现较强韧性，货币政策宽松的紧迫性下降，叠加一季度国债密集发行带来的供给端压力，国债期货价 格承压。不过内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，货币政策中长期仍偏向宽松，2026 年政策利率仍存下 调预期，目前国债价格隐含的降息预期较弱，国债期货支撑力量仍存。总的来说，国债期货上有压力 下有 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives specific ratings for gold and copper futures: - **Gold**: Short - term:震荡 (fluctuating); Medium - term: 强势 (strong); Intraday: 震荡偏强 (slightly bullish in intraday trading) [1] - **Copper**: Short - term: 震荡 (fluctuating); Medium - term: 强势 (strong); Intraday: 震荡偏弱 (slightly bearish in intraday trading) [1] 2. Core Views - **Gold**: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The recovery of liquidity and geopolitical conflicts are favorable for the gold price. Although the market panic did not spread, the high post - holiday risk appetite and liquidity in the market are the main reasons for pushing up the gold price. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the high position in late December [1][3] - **Copper**: It is recommended to take a long - term bullish view. The recovery of liquidity and strong industrial expectations push up the copper price. The core drivers of the copper price increase since December are macro - liquidity easing, mine - end disturbances, and the long - term AI narrative [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the gold price fluctuated upwards, and it maintained a strong operation at night. New York gold reached above the $4500 mark, and Shanghai gold was approaching the 1010 - yuan mark [3] - **Driving Factors**: On January 3, the US military carried out an air strike on Venezuela and captured the Venezuelan president, which increased the market's risk - aversion sentiment and led to a higher opening of the gold price. The high post - holiday risk appetite and liquidity in the market are the main reasons for pushing up the gold price [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, Shanghai copper continued to increase positions and rise, standing above the 105,000 - yuan mark during the day, and LME copper stood above the $13,300 mark. After the Asian session, LME copper once erased the intraday gain of more than $200, while the copper price recovered again before the domestic night session. There was a large divergence in short - term internal and external funds [4] - **Driving Factors**: Since December, the core drivers of the copper price increase are macro - liquidity easing, mine - end disturbances, and the long - term AI narrative. The easing of US and Japanese central bank monetary policies has restored market liquidity, and the market expects the Fed to continue to cut interest rates in 2026. The delay in the commissioning of the second - phase project of Tongling Nonferrous' Mirador Copper Mine in Ecuador due to political instability and administrative issues has led to the expectation of lower - than - expected new global copper mine supply [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 商品情绪偏暖，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 商品情绪偏暖，铁矿石期价高位偏强运行，但供需格局持续走弱，港存高位攀升，钢厂开始复产， 矿石终端消耗迎来回升，但盈利状况改善有限，且淡季钢市难以承接大幅提产，需求改善空间受限。 与此同时，国内港口到货如期回升，且后续存有增量空间，而年末冲量结束后矿商发运开始回落，相 应的 ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - The price of rebar is expected to continue to fluctuate. Traders should focus on the support level of MA5 and the production situation of steel mills. The current situation is a game between expectations and reality, and the steel price is stabilizing in a fluctuating manner [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Directory Variety View Reference - For the rebar 2605 contract, the short - term (within one week) and medium - term (two weeks to one month) trends are expected to be fluctuating, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly fluctuating. Traders are advised to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, leading to the steel price stabilizing in a fluctuating manner [2]. Market Driving Logic - The sentiment in the commodity market is positive, leading to a collective rebound of ferrous metals. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. Construction steel mills are continuously resuming production, increasing rebar output and weakening the positive effect of low supply. Meanwhile, rebar demand is weak, with high - frequency demand indicators remaining at low levels in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved and will continue to weaken seasonally, dragging down the steel price. In summary, although the positive commodity sentiment has led to a rebound of rebar futures prices from low levels, the rebar fundamentals are weakly stable under the situation of increasing supply and weakening demand. The steel price in the off - season is still under pressure, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run in a moderately strong manner on January 7, 2026, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile and an intraday view of being moderately strong [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: moderately strong; Overall: moderately strong operation [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: With the cease - fire between Thailand and Cambodia, the expected decline in Southeast Asian rubber supply due to geopolitical risks has dissipated, weakening the bullish drive. Currently, domestic natural rubber production areas in Yunnan and Hainan are in the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex, while Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. Supported by a bullish atmosphere, Shanghai rubber futures rose slightly on the night of Tuesday, and are expected to maintain a moderately strong volatile trend on Wednesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: moderately strong; Overall: moderately strong operation [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. Coupled with the moderately strong volatile pattern of Shanghai rubber futures, it indirectly supports synthetic rubber futures. The supply - demand expectation of synthetic rubber has improved, and the bullish atmosphere has gradually dominated. Synthetic rubber futures rose slightly on the night of Tuesday and are expected to maintain a moderately strong volatile trend on Wednesday [7].

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 基本面支撑有限，焦煤震荡整理 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空交织，焦炭低位震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-01-07 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 煤炭价格反弹，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：节前海外供应"硬收缩"带来最强支撑，这是节前支撑甲醇价格上行的最关键因素。作 为主要进口来源地的伊朗，目前正面临严重的供应干扰。同时国内港口甲醇库存去化，带动了港口 现货价格的修复，基差走强。这种现货 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillating". The short - term and medium - term core logic is that downstream demand provides support, leading to a slight increase in port coal prices. The intraday view's core logic is that the domestic thermal coal fundamentals may recover in January, driving coal prices to stabilize and rebound [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Price and Market Conditions - As of December 31, the FOB price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 676 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan, continuing to weaken after falling below 700 yuan/ton and gradually stabilizing this week [4]. Driving Factors for Price Changes - Before the New Year's Day holiday, thermal coal prices were weakening. The decline was due to high supply and unexpectedly weak demand. With the arrival of the New Year, although some suspended coal mines on the supply side will resume production, coal mines will have concentrated holidays during the Spring Festival, and downstream replenishment demand will be realized. On the demand side, the heating demand of residents in southern coastal cities will further increase in January, driving the coal consumption of power plants to reach the peak of the year [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of IH2603 is "shock", the medium - term view is "shock", the intraday view is "bullish", and the overall view is "bullish with shocks". The core logic is that the expectations of policy benefits and the trend of net capital inflows remain unchanged [1]. - For the IF, IH, IC, and IM varieties, the intraday view is "bullish", the medium - term view is "shock", and the reference view is "bullish with shocks". The short - term stock index is expected to run bullishly with shocks. The main reasons are the continuous increase in market liquidity and policy benefit expectations after the holiday, and the strong willingness of leveraged funds to enter the market [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **IH2603**: - Short - term: Shock [1] - Medium - term: Shock [1] - Intraday: Bullish [1] - Viewpoint reference: Bullish with shocks [1] - Core logic: Expectations of policy benefits and the trend of net capital inflows remain unchanged [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM [5] - **Intraday view**: Bullish [5] - **Medium - term view**: Shock [5] - **Reference view**: Bullish with shocks [5] - **Core logic**: The stock market has risen sharply and continuously after the holiday. The trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets reached 2832.2 billion yuan, an increase of 265 billion yuan from the previous day. The reasons are the return of market liquidity and the continuous increase in policy benefit expectations. The policy emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system, and related industrial chain stocks have risen significantly. The margin trading balance has exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan, and the margin trading purchase amount is close to 300 billion yuan, indicating strong willingness of leveraged funds to enter the market and optimistic market sentiment. In the long - run, policy benefits and net capital inflows are the main drivers for the upward movement of the stock index. With the implementation of policy benefits in 2026 and continuous net capital inflows, the risk appetite of the stock market will continue to rise [5]