1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, all stock indices fluctuated and rebounded. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets throughout the day was 2402.9 billion yuan, showing an increase of 35.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments recently issued the "Several Policy Measures for Expanding Service Consumption," proposing 19 specific measures in five aspects to boost consumption demand. Promoting the development of service consumption can create new service - related jobs and stimulate household consumption, thus promoting a positive economic cycle on both the supply and demand sides [3]. - In August, credit and inflation data were weak, and the consumption growth rate slowed down, indicating weak demand from the real - sector. There is a strong expectation for the introduction of policies to stabilize demand in the future, with the key window period for policy introduction expected to be in October [3]. - In July and August, non - bank deposits increased significantly, and the margin trading balance remained at a high level, indicating that the stock market has continuously attracted incremental capital inflows. However, due to the significant increase in the valuations of some stocks previously, there is still a willingness among profit - taking funds to lock in profits, which also leads to short - term technical adjustment pressure on the stock indices. In the future, attention should be paid to the game between the profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations [3]. - In general, the stock indices are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term [3]. - Currently, the implied volatility of options is within the normal range. Considering the long - and medium - term upward trend of the stock indices, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On September 17, 2025, the 50ETF rose 0.19% to close at 3.088; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.71% to close at 4.653; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.73% to close at 4.800; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.61% to close at 4551.02; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.95% to close at 7554.81; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 1.03% to close at 7.357; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.27% to close at 2.944; the ChiNext ETF rose 1.96% to close at 3.119; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 1.36% to close at 3.497; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.17% to close at 2952.78; the STAR 50ETF rose 0.98% to close at 1.44; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 0.86% to close at 1.41 [5]. - For option volume PCR and position PCR, specific values for different options on September 17, 2025, and the previous trading day are provided, such as the 50ETF option volume PCR being 87.34 (previous day: 98.00) and position PCR being 79.25 (previous day: 78.16) [6]. - For the implied volatility of at - the - money options and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying assets, specific values for different options are provided, such as the 50ETF option's 2025 September at - the - money option implied volatility being 18.05% and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset being 15.12% [7]. 3.2 Related Charts - The report provides various charts for different options, including the price trends, volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms for options such as the 50ETF option, 300ETF option (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), CSI 1000 index option, 500ETF option (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), ChiNext ETF option, Shenzhen 100ETF option, SSE 50 index option, STAR 50ETF option, and E Fund STAR 50ETF option [9][21][34]

Group 1: Report Core View - Copper prices decreased with reduced positions. Due to the upcoming Fed's interest - rate decision, short - term long - position holders were eager to close positions. In the industrial aspect, downstream buyers were hesitant as copper prices rose in September. Technically, LME copper reached the upper limit of the previous trading range, also prompting long - position closing. Copper prices have been rising with increasing positions since last week, breaking through the 80,000 mark, and are expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to the Fed's September interest - rate decision [3]. - Aluminum prices decreased with reduced positions, and the main contract price fell below the 21,000 mark. Due to the upcoming Fed's interest - rate decision, short - term long - position holders were eager to close positions. Technically, Shanghai aluminum faced resistance at the March high. Continued attention should be paid to the long - short battle at the 21,000 mark and the Fed's September interest - rate decision [4]. - Shanghai nickel decreased with reduced positions in the morning and stabilized and rebounded in the afternoon, with the position volume continuously declining. Due to the upcoming Fed's interest - rate decision, short - term long - position holders were eager to close positions. In the industrial aspect, the port inventory of domestic nickel ore and the inventory of nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise, which was negative for nickel prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the long - short battle at 122,000 and the Fed's September interest - rate decision [5]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Anglo American and Codelco signed an agreement to jointly operate their adjacent mines in central Chile. The Los Bronces copper mine of Anglo American and the Andina copper mine of Codelco will be integrated to create a new mining area. Once approved (expected before 2030), the project is expected to produce an additional 2.7 million tons of copper in 21 years [7]. - The research department of Commerzbank stated that affected by the interweaving of long and short factors, aluminum prices may show a sideways - oscillating trend in the short term. Last week, aluminum prices broke through the $2,700 per ton mark but are currently under downward pressure. To curb over - capacity, investment in the aluminum industry is regulated, which may also ease the decline in aluminum prices. Aluminum production may stagnate or even decline slightly in the next few months [8]. - On September 17, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,400 - 124,200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,100 - 2,300 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [8]. Group 3: Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [9][11][12]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [21][23][25]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [33][35][37].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.06%. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and industrial contradictions continue to accumulate, pressuring steel prices. However, cost increases and production restrictions are relatively favorable. With the game of long and short factors, steel prices are expected to continue the fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil fluctuated and declined, with a daily decrease of 0.38%. Currently, the fundamentals of hot-rolled coil are stable under the situation of increasing supply and demand. Coupled with production restrictions, it continues to support the relatively strong operation of coil prices. However, the sustainability of demand improvement needs to be tracked. Once demand weakens, industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate under high supply, and prices will be pressured. Key attention should be paid to demand changes [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated at a high level, with a daily decrease of 0.12%. Currently, benefiting from pre-holiday replenishment and policy favorable expectations, ore prices continue to operate at a high level. However, the resilience of ore demand is weakening, and supply is increasing. There is an expectation of weakening fundamentals, and high-valued ore prices are still likely to be pressured. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In August 2025, China's air conditioner production was 16.819 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%; from January to August, the cumulative production was 199.646 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%. Refrigerator production was 9.453 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%; from January to August, the cumulative production was 70.189 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%. Washing machine production was 10.132 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%; from January to August, the cumulative production was 78.263 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%. Color TV production was 18.016 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%; from January to August, the cumulative production was 125.821 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1% [6]. - From September 1 - 14, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 732,000 units, a 4% year-on-year decrease compared to the same period in September last year and a 6% increase compared to the previous month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 15.497 million units, a 9% year-on-year increase. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 774,000 units, a 3% year-on-year decrease compared to the same period in September last year and an 18% increase compared to the previous month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 18.816 million units, a 12% year-on-year increase. The retail sales of the national new energy passenger car market were 438,000 units, a 6% year-on-year increase compared to the same period in September last year and a 10% increase compared to the previous month. The retail penetration rate of the new energy passenger car market was 59.8%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 8.008 million units, a 25% year-on-year increase [7]. - In August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 65.71 million tons of crude steel, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, with a daily output of 2.1196 million tons, a 1.5% month-on-month decrease; produced 60.8 million tons of pig iron, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, with a daily output of 1.9614 million tons, a 1.5% month-on-month decrease; produced 68.73 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, with a daily output of 2.2172 million tons, a 0.4% month-on-month decrease. From January to August, key steel enterprises cumulatively produced 555 million tons of crude steel, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.9%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.2852 million tons; cumulatively produced 498 million tons of pig iron, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.0505 million tons; cumulatively produced 562 million tons of steel, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.3%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.3131 million tons [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,230 yuan, 3,220 yuan, and 3,306 yuan respectively, all down 10 yuan. The spot price of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,420 yuan, 3,340 yuan, and 3,457 yuan respectively, all down 10 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,060 yuan, unchanged, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,130 yuan, unchanged. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 795 yuan, unchanged, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 798 yuan, unchanged. The sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 10.60 yuan and 23.86 yuan respectively, up 0.13 yuan and 0.17 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 105.72 yuan, up 0.22 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 105.90 yuan, up 0.40 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,168 yuan, up 0.06%, with a trading volume of 1,242,094 lots, a decrease of 723,262 lots, and an open interest of 1,963,371 lots, an increase of 7,123 lots. The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract was 3,390 yuan, down 0.38%, with a trading volume of 500,938 lots, a decrease of 136,665 lots, and an open interest of 1,391,462 lots, an increase of 523 lots. The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 804.5 yuan, down 0.12%, with a trading volume of 254,268 lots, a decrease of 143,342 lots, and an open interest of 534,465 lots, an increase of 2,092 lots [13]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot-rolled coil), iron ore inventory (including national 45-port and 247 steel mills), and steel mill production (including blast furnace and electric furnace) [15][22][29]. Future Market Outlook - Rebar: The pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, with the weekly output of rebar decreasing by 67,500 tons month-on-month, continuing the high-level decline. However, the production reduction space during the peak season is questionable, and the inventory continues to accumulate to a high level, so the supply pressure relief is limited. At the same time, the demand for rebar continues to be weak, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 40,000 tons month-on-month, and the high-frequency transactions running at a low level. Both are at the low levels in the same period in recent years, and there are no signs of marginal improvement. Due to the poor performance of downstream industries, the weak demand is likely to pressure steel prices. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and industrial contradictions continue to accumulate, pressuring steel prices. Relatively favorable factors are cost increases and production restrictions. With the game of long and short factors, steel prices are expected to continue the fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to demand performance [37]. - Hot-rolled coil: There are changes at both supply and demand ends. After the end of production restrictions, steel mills are actively resuming production, and the weekly output of hot-rolled coil has increased by 109,000 tons month-on-month, returning to the high level of the year, increasing the pressure. At the same time, the demand for hot-rolled coil has improved, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 208,000 tons month-on-month, and the high-frequency transactions have also rebounded. However, the output of cold-rolled products, the main downstream product, continues to decline, and industrial contradictions are accumulating, which may drag down the demand for hot-rolled coil. The relatively favorable factor is the low-price advantage, and exports may improve marginally. The improvement strength of hot-rolled coil under the different situations of domestic and foreign demand needs to be tracked. In general, the fundamentals of hot-rolled coil are stable under the situation of increasing supply and demand. Coupled with production restrictions, it continues to support the relatively strong operation of coil prices. However, the sustainability of demand improvement needs to be tracked. Once demand weakens, industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate under high supply, and prices will be pressured. Key attention should be paid to demand changes [38]. - Iron ore: There are changes at both supply and demand ends. After the end of production restrictions, the terminal consumption of ore has increased significantly. Last week, the daily average pig iron output and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills both rebounded, returning to the previous high levels. And with the approaching holiday, the expectation of replenishment has fermented, and the demand for ore is performing well, continuing to support the ore price. However, it should be noted that the industrial contradictions in the steel market are constantly accumulating, and profits are continuously shrinking, so the room for demand recovery is limited. At the same time, the arrival of goods at domestic ports continues to decline, but the overseas ore shipments have increased significantly. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrival of goods will bottom out and rebound. Coupled with the rapid recovery of domestic ore supply, the ore supply is expected to increase. In general, benefiting from pre-holiday replenishment and policy favorable expectations, ore prices continue to operate at a high level. However, the resilience of ore demand is weakening, and supply is increasing. There is an expectation of weakening fundamentals, and high-valued ore prices are still likely to be pressured. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [39].

Report Core View - The highest level of cognition and ability in futures trading is to understand the essence, follow the trend, and obtain the maximum results at the minimum cost, transforming from a "fighter" to a "strategist" [2] - Traders should learn continuously, keep an open mind, and draw wisdom, not being confined to their own opinions or superstitious about a single technical indicator or trading system [3] - The core of "subduing the enemy without fighting" is the establishment and application of "momentum", which means following the market trend in futures trading and making decisions based on risk - return assessment [4][5] Summary by Related Content Comparison between Ordinary Traders and High - level Traders - Ordinary traders are like inexperienced generals, believing in the power of "fighting", frequently trading, and facing high costs and risks. Some even go all - out to recover losses and end up with total failure [3] - High - level traders are like Han Xin, willing to learn from others, waiting for the right "momentum" in the market, and making trades based on sufficient research and strict discipline [3][4] Establishment and Application of "Momentum" in Trading - In futures trading, when the long - term trend is established, the moving average system diverges upward, the fundamentals are strong, and market sentiment is optimistic, traders should follow the trend and let profits run [4] - When the trend is unclear or in a short - term pattern, forcing a long position is against the "momentum" and will be punished by the market. Traders should wait for the right opportunity [4] Risk - Return Assessment in Trading - Before each trade, traders should assess the upside potential, downside risk, and probability of success. If the risk - return ratio is not good, they can choose not to trade [5] - When there is a floating profit in the account, traders should decide whether to hold or close the position based on the trend, fundamentals, and market sentiment [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The plastic futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend, driven by the cost support from stable crude oil prices, reduced polyethylene supply due to plant maintenance, and improved downstream demand during the peak season [2][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Price and Cost Support - The trading logic in the crude oil futures market comes from three aspects: macro - factor drive with a "tight - to - loose" macro - environment, increased supply as OPEC+ continues to expand production, and rising geopolitical premiums in the oil market. After the game between supply increase and enhanced geopolitical risks, the domestic and international crude oil prices are expected to be volatile and stable, providing cost support for plastic futures [3] 3.2 Domestic Polyethylene Supply - Since September, the weekly output of domestic polyethylene has declined slightly due to the maintenance of devices such as Yulong Petrochemical, Liaoyang Petrochemical, and Yangzi Petrochemical. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the domestic polyethylene enterprise maintenance loss was 14.62 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.28 tons. However, considering the planned restarts and new maintenance in the second half of the month, the supply decline momentum is expected to weaken, and the weekly output may stabilize and rebound [4] 3.3 Downstream Demand - With the arrival of the "Golden September" peak season, the profits of films and packaging films have improved. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the domestic film profit rose to - 220 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 24.14%, and the packaging film profit was 148 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 39.62%. The overall operating rate of downstream polyethylene industries reached 42.17%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11%. The demand side is expected to continue growing [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of being volatile, volatile, and volatile - bullish respectively [1][5] - Although the supply - demand structure of methanol is weak, the decline of the methanol 2601 contract is limited due to improved macro - sentiment, and it may maintain a volatile - bullish trend on Wednesday [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Time - cycle Viewpoints - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is volatile - bullish, with a reference view of running strongly [1] Price and Market Analysis - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract closed slightly lower by 0.46% to 2,383 yuan/ton on Tuesday night, but the downward space is limited [5] Core Logic - The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, downstream demand is in the off - season, port inventory has increased significantly, resulting in a weak supply - demand structure and a downward price center [5] - The improvement of macro - sentiment has boosted the market, making the methanol 2601 contract likely to maintain a volatile - bullish trend on Wednesday [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 偏多因素主导，焦煤向上反弹 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 成本支撑增强，焦炭高位运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 9 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1140.0 元/吨，周环比持平。9 月 15 日，习近平总书记在《求是》杂志发表题 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract and synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract are expected to run strongly, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs For Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a weakly volatile trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.28% to 15,955 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in the September meeting is high, and the Sino - US economic and trade talks have achieved positive results, improving the macro - sentiment. The Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and the supply recovery expectation in the rubber market is increasing [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that on Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract may maintain a strongly volatile trend [5]. For Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Tuesday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract maintained a stable and volatile trend, with the futures price slightly up 0.09% to 11,680 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in the September meeting is high, and the Sino - US economic and trade talks have achieved positive results, improving the macro - sentiment. Although the domestic auto market production and sales in August were better than expected, the positive factors were overdrawn [7]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that on Wednesday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract may maintain a strongly volatile trend [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on September 17, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, aiming to provide data reference for investors [1][5][21][27][40][51]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Power Coal - **Base Difference**: On September 16, 2025, the base difference was - 113.4 yuan/ton, showing a narrowing trend compared with previous days [2]. - **Spread**: The spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0.0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: The base differences of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and other energy commodities on different dates are presented, such as the base difference of INE crude oil being 16.04 yuan/ton on September 16, 2025 [7]. - **Chemical Commodities** - **Base Difference**: The base differences of rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. on different dates are provided, for example, the base difference of rubber was - 890 yuan/ton on September 16, 2025 [9]. - **Spread**: The spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month for various chemical products were mostly 0.0. The cross - variety spreads like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. on different dates are also given, e.g., the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2296 yuan/ton on September 16, 2025 [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Spread** - **Cross - Period**: The cross - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, etc. are shown, for example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar was 68.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Cross - Variety**: The cross - variety spreads such as screw/ore, screw/coke on different dates are presented, e.g., the screw/ore ratio was 3.93 on September 16, 2025 [20]. - **Base Difference**: The base differences of rebar, iron ore, etc. on different dates are provided, like the base difference of rebar was 114.0 yuan/ton on September 16, 2025 [21]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic base differences of copper, aluminum, etc. on different dates are given, for example, the base difference of copper was - 80 yuan/ton on September 16, 2025 [28]. - **London Market**: The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of LME non - ferrous metals on September 16, 2025 are presented, such as the LME spread of copper being (59.26) [34]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Base Difference**: The base differences of soybeans, soybean meal, etc. on different dates are provided, for example, the base difference of soybeans was 136 yuan/ton on September 16, 2025 [40]. - **Spread** - **Cross - Period**: The cross - period spreads of various agricultural products are shown, e.g., the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans was 47 [40]. - **Cross - Variety**: The cross - variety spreads such as soybean/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal on different dates are presented, like the soybean/corn ratio was 1.81 on September 16, 2025 [40]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Base Difference**: On September 16, 2025, the base differences of CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 6.54, - 2.78, etc. respectively [52]. - **Spread**: The cross - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. are given, for example, the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 10.0 [52].

1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity futures market has seen significant capital inflows due to positive domestic fundamentals and increased trading themes, with the total capital amount reaching a record high of 4736.5 billion yuan on September 16 [2]. - The precious metals market is in a bull - run, potentially accelerating due to factors such as expectations of a Fed policy shift, increased避险 demand, and supply - demand imbalances [4][5]. - The bond market is affected by multiple factors, with short - term fluctuations and a possible gradual recovery in an oscillatory manner. Long - term bond yields may decline more smoothly in the latter half of the fourth quarter [25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in the second quarter of 2025 had a year - on - year growth rate of 5.2%, slightly lower than the previous quarter but higher than the same period last year [1]. - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, slightly up from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3%, also slightly up [1]. - In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.7%, 6.0%, and 8.8% respectively. The financial institution's RMB loan increased by 590 billion yuan in the month [1]. - In August 2025, CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year [1]. - In August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 0.5%, and that of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.64% [1]. - In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of export and import values were 4.4% and 1.3% respectively [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued policies to expand service consumption, proposing 19 measures in five aspects [2]. - On September 16, the total capital in the commodity futures market reached a record high of 4736.5 billion yuan, with 11 varieties having over 10 billion yuan in capital, and the capital in Shanghai gold futures reaching 106 billion yuan [2]. 3.2.2 Metals - On September 16, COMEX gold futures reached a new high, and Shanghai gold futures had a cumulative increase of 7.37% since September. Silver prices also continued to rise [4][5]. - On September 15, zinc, copper, and aluminum inventories decreased, while lead and nickel inventories increased. Tin, aluminum alloy, and cobalt inventories remained stable [5]. - As of September 16, the position of SPDR Gold Trust increased by 0.32% (3.15 tons) to 979.95 tons [5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The US government is discussing setting up a $5 billion mining investment fund, and plans to expand the strategic uranium reserve [6]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On September 16, international oil prices rose due to geopolitical conflicts and a larger - than - expected decline in US crude oil inventories [7]. - Two wells in Sinopec's Ziyang shale gas field in the Sichuan Basin set a new record for shale gas production, with one well having a daily output of 1.407 million cubic meters [7]. - OPEC + representatives will discuss production capacity this week, and the EU is about to propose the 19th round of sanctions targeting cryptocurrencies, banks, and energy [7][8]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - On September 18, 15,000 tons of central reserve frozen pork will be put up for auction [9]. - During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, China's grain output exceeded 1.4 trillion catties in 2024, and the high - standard farmland area exceeded 1 billion mu. The agricultural science and technology progress contribution rate reached 63.2% [9]. - Coffee futures prices rose due to concerns about drought in Brazil, and the price of Arabica coffee beans reached $4.21 per pound [9]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On September 16, the central bank conducted 287 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 40 billion yuan [11]. 3.3.2 Important News - Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued policies to expand service consumption [12]. - The central bank governor proposed to adjust the share ratio of the International Monetary Fund [12]. - The so - called "cancellation of the overseas individual housing purchase limit" is a misinterpretation [13]. - The CSRC is soliciting opinions on the regulations for the management of public offering fund sales fees, which may affect short - term bond funds [13]. - Some local governments are accelerating the resolution of implicit debts, and 82 districts and counties have completed the zero - clearing of implicit debts [14]. - The Beijing Financial Court has explored a dispute - resolution model to help enterprises in debt crises [14]. - The Fed is expected to restart the interest - rate cut process, but there are internal differences [15]. - The World Bank issued $1.75 billion of sustainable development bonds [16]. - Alibaba issued $3.2 billion of zero - coupon convertible preferred notes [16]. - Tencent issued bonds worth about 9 billion yuan [16]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market first declined and then rose. The yield of the 30 - year treasury bond "25 Super Long Special Treasury Bond 02" decreased by 1.5bp [18]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.18%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index increased by 0.18% [19]. - Most money market interest rates and bond - related rates increased [19][20]. - European bond yields rose, and US bond yields fell [21][22]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose by 65 points, and the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was raised by 29 points [23]. - The US dollar index fell by 0.73%, and most non - US currencies rose [23]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Yangtze River Fixed Income believes that the timing for restarting treasury bond trading may be approaching [24]. - CITIC Securities believes that the scale of bank wealth management has continued to grow, and the new regulations on fund redemption fees may change the investment logic of wealth management funds [24]. - Guosheng Fixed Income believes that the bond market may recover gradually in an oscillatory manner [25]. - Guoxin Fixed Income suggests paying attention to structural opportunities in the equity market and individual convertible bonds [26]. - Huatai Fixed Income believes that the bond market may take a short - term break [26]. - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the economic data in August is generally stable but still under pressure [26]. 3.4 Stock Market - A - share indices fluctuated and closed higher, with robot concept stocks leading the rise and rare earth, breeding, and insurance stocks falling [29]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell slightly, with robot concept stocks performing strongly and pharmaceutical stocks generally falling [29].