投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 16 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂震荡企稳 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 100600 元/吨，较前日 下跌 460 元/吨（-0.46%），近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 95910 元/吨，较前日上涨 0.78%， 近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为-5030 点，负基差（现货贴水），较前日 走弱 860 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走弱。 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com （仅供参考，不构 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Futures Research Report - Non-ferrous Metals [1][2] - Report Date: December 16, 2025 [5] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views Copper - Today, copper prices continued to decline with reduced positions, dropping nearly 2,000 yuan/ton from last night's high. - On the macro level, market risk appetite and liquidity decreased, pressuring copper prices. - On the industrial level, as copper prices fell, downstream industries' willingness to replenish inventory increased, supporting copper prices. - The game between long and short positions intensified, with strong willingness among long - position holders to close positions. Copper prices showed a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets, and low LME inventories provided strong support. - Technically, continuously monitor the support of the 10 - day moving average [6]. Aluminum - Today, aluminum prices first declined and then rose, with continuously decreasing positions. - On the macro level, the non - ferrous sector declined across the board, but aluminum prices were relatively resilient. - On the industrial level, the basis and monthly spread remained weak, and the expectation of aluminum replacing copper provided some support. - Technically, continuously monitor the support of the 40 - day moving average [7]. Nickel - Last night, nickel prices plunged with increased positions and maintained a weak trend today. The main contract price fell below 112,000 yuan, hitting a new low for the year. - On the macro level, the non - ferrous sector weakened, and nickel's weakness was more obvious. - On the industrial level, as nickel prices weakened, the spot premium continued to strengthen, but the monthly spread showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. - Technically, nickel prices declined with increased positions, breaking through the annual low, indicating strong downward momentum [8]. Industry Dynamics Copper - After the delivery, copper prices declined, and downstream industries had some rigid - demand replenishment. However, due to the accumulation of finished product inventory in the processing sector and downstream industries' wait - and - see attitude towards copper prices, market activity had not significantly recovered, and the spot premium was at a low level [10]. Nickel - On December 16, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 111,700 - 117,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 114,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,650 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. - The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 5,500 - 5,700 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 5,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. - The spot premium quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 400 yuan/ton [11]. Relevant Charts Copper - Figures include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][13][14][18][19] Aluminum - Figures include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [24][26][28][30][32][34] Nickel - Figures include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, and LME nickel price trend [36][38][40][43][45][48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on December 16, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - Basis data from December 9 to December 15, 2025 shows that the basis on December 15 was - 64.4 yuan/ton, gradually decreasing from - 32.4 yuan/ton on December 9 [2]. Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from December 9 to December 15, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on December 15 was 55.24 yuan/ton [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: Inter - month spreads and inter - commodity spreads data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented. For instance, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of LLDPE is 36 yuan/ton, and on December 15, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2270 yuan/ton [9]. Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 9 to December 15, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of rebar on December 15 was 176.0 yuan/ton [20]. - Inter - month spreads and inter - commodity spreads data are also provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rebar is - 15.0 yuan/ton, and on December 15, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 407 [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 9 to December 15, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of copper on December 15 was - 180 yuan/ton [28]. - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for LME non - ferrous metals on December 15, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was (4.39), and the import loss was (1202.68) yuan/ton [33]. Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 9 to December 15, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on December 15 was - 110 yuan/ton [42]. - Inter - month spreads data for multiple agricultural products are given. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 is 38 yuan/ton. - Inter - commodity spreads data such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal are provided. On December 15, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.85 [42]. Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 9 to December 15, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on December 15 was 6.46 [53]. - Inter - month spreads data for the next - month minus the current - month and the next - quarter minus the current - quarter of the above - mentioned stock indices are given. For example, the next - month minus the current - month spread of CSI 300 is - 160 [53].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being weak [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Price Trend and View**: The short - term view of methanol 2605 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of weak operation [1]. - **Driving Logic**: After the previous positive factors were digested, due to the increasing domestic methanol supply pressure and the sharp correction of domestic coal futures prices, the methanol futures rebound was blocked and entered a correction. Although the port and inland inventories have slightly declined, they remain at a high level. Downstream demand improvement is insufficient, and the olefin disk profit is weakening. On Monday night, the domestic methanol futures maintained an oscillatory and weak trend, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Tuesday [5].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空分歧，焦煤低位震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 多空交织，焦炭低位运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：截至 12 月 12 日当周 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 12 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 现实格局偏弱，钢价震荡寻底 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹供需格局弱稳运行，建筑钢厂生产趋弱，供应降至低位，给予钢价支撑，但减产持续性待 跟踪。与此同时，螺纹钢需求表现不佳，高频指标低位弱势运行，且下游行业未见好转，后续仍将 季节性走弱，易拖累钢价。目前来看，低供应格局给予钢价支撑，但需求表现同样疲弱，基本面并 无好转，淡季钢 ...

宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-16 品种晨会纪要 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着国内云南和海南天胶产区逐渐临近停割季，未来国产全乳胶供应预期逐渐下降 ...

Report Summary 1) Reported Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - The crude oil market is expected to run weakly in the short - term and the intraday period, while remaining volatile in the medium - term [1][5] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Market Outlook - The short - term view of crude oil 2602 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is weak, and the reference view is weak operation [1] - It is expected that domestic crude oil futures may maintain a weak pattern on Tuesday [5] Core Logic - Recently, there have been signs of compromise in Ukraine, the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to cool down, and the US is mediating to end the war, weakening the geopolitical premium and the upward momentum of international oil prices [5] - Saudi Arabia has lowered the price of its main crude oil varieties for Asia to the lowest level in five years, and global crude oil inventories are continuously accumulating, increasing supply pressure in the crude oil market [5] - The weakening of the monthly spread in the crude oil market and the crack spread of refined oil products shows a weak supply - demand structure in the oil market [5]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a core logic of a weakening macro atmosphere and rising risk - aversion demand [1][3] - Copper is expected to be strong in the long - term, due to a macro - easing environment, mine - end production cuts, and the implementation of interest rate cuts [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - Short - term view: Strong; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Intraday view: Oscillating and tending to be strong; Overall reference view: Strong in the short - line. The price has been rising since last week, reaching near the $4400 mark on Monday night. After a dovish Fed meeting, the short - term market risk preference and liquidity increased, but on Friday night, the macro atmosphere worsened. The short - term impact of the meeting has been digested, and risk - aversion demand has risen rapidly, so the price may remain strong. Tonight's US non - farm data may affect short - term trends, and the $4400 mark is a technical resistance in the medium - to - long - term [1][3] Copper (CU) - Short - term view: Oscillating; Medium - term view: Strong; Intraday view: Oscillating and tending to be strong; Overall reference view: Strong in the long - line. After the Asian session yesterday, LME copper soared close to $11,900, and SHFE copper opened higher at night, approaching the 94,000 yuan mark. Then the price fell back, and the long - position closing intention was strong. The non - ferrous sector declined, but copper was resilient due to its strong financial properties. The sharp drop last Friday stimulated downstream replenishment demand, and the spot premium in Guangdong increased, indicating actual demand resilience. The short - term price volatility is large, and both sides tend to close positions. Tonight's US non - farm employment data may affect short - term trends, and the 5 - day moving average can be monitored [1][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic data in November shows a mixed picture. The production side maintains stable growth, while the investment side faces some pressure, and the consumption side shows a slowdown in growth. The overall economy continues to develop steadily with progress [2]. - The metal market has seen significant price fluctuations, with platinum hitting the daily limit, and silver reaching a record high. The supply - demand situation in the aluminum and copper markets is also changing [4][6]. - In the bond market, the overall performance is weak, with bond prices falling and yields rising in some cases. The stock market also shows a downward trend, with A - shares and Hong Kong stocks both experiencing declines [26][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter. The manufacturing PMI in November was 49.2%, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, both showing some weakness. Social financing scale increased in November, and M0, M1, and M2 had different year - on - year growth rates. Financial institution RMB loans increased by 390 billion yuan in November. CPI and PPI had different trends, and fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year - to - date in November [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's economic data in November shows that industrial added value, service production index, and exports increased, while fixed - asset investment and real - estate development investment decreased. The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% [2]. - ICBC will strengthen the management of its agency business for individual precious metal trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Multiple futures company branches were punished for violations. The Fed's Williams made predictions about the US economy and inflation [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - Platinum futures hit the daily limit, and some platinum jewelry prices exceeded 700 yuan/gram. The price of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials is expected to rise. The inventory of various metals showed different trends. Silver reached a record high, and its long - term prospects are optimistic. Aluminum supply is expected to increase in 2026, and copper price forecasts were adjusted [4][6][7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In November, the output of industrial coal decreased slightly, while the output of crude oil, processed crude oil, and natural gas increased. India allows power plants with excess coal inventory to export coal, and Rio Tinto plans to start a project in Western Australia [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The National Energy Work Conference plans to increase the installed capacity of wind and solar power in 2026 and layout future energy industries. Russia may extend the diesel export ban, and the trading hours of European natural gas and electricity may be extended [9][11]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The prices of some agricultural products such as soybean meal and corn increased, while the price of peanuts decreased. The US has new pork export sales, and Mexico launched an anti - dumping investigation on some US pork products. Brazil's soybean planting progress is fast, and Egypt has sufficient wheat reserves [12][14][15]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On December 15, the central bank conducted 130.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 8.6 billion yuan [16]. 3.3.2 Important News - President Xi Jinping's article emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand. China's economic data in November shows that the economy is stable with progress but also faces challenges. The prices of new commercial housing in 70 large and medium - sized cities have different trends. Multiple departments issued policies to promote the development of service outsourcing, and the capital market will implement a series of reform measures [17][18][21]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market is generally weak, with treasury bond futures falling, bond yields rising, and some corporate bonds such as Vanke's bonds declining. The currency market interest rates show different trends, and the yields of European and US bonds also change [26][29]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index fell. Non - US currencies mostly rose [30]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed Income believes that convertible bonds are not likely to have a deep adjustment for the time being but are difficult to have overall opportunities. Investors should trade with a short - term view. In the bond market, the mainstream view is that it will be volatile and bearish, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [31]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On December 16, a large number of bonds will be listed, issued, paid, and have principal and interest repaid [32]. 3.4 Stock Market Important News - The CSRC clarified the key reform directions of the capital market during the 15th Five - Year Plan. A - shares and Hong Kong stocks both declined, and the trading volume of securities brokerage business has increased significantly this year [33][34].