Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term trends of major agricultural futures in the commodity market, including soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil, are mainly in a state of shock, with a short - term weakening tendency [5][8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weakening" [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: The expectation of improved Sino - US trade may falsify the long - term supply gap. The domestic soybean market trading logic revolves around the weak industrial chain, with oil mills facing inventory pressure and a continuous negative basis pattern for soybean meal. Also, factors such as import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand affect its price [5][7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weakening" [8][7]. - **Core Logic**: The EPA's biofuel proposal has high uncertainty within 45 days. The past actions of President Trump and the impact of Sino - US trade prospects on the soybean market also affect soybean oil. Additionally, factors like US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory play roles [8][7]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weakening" [9][7]. - **Core Logic**: Although rainfall in East Malaysia may disrupt supply in the short - term and export data is stable, the peak production season in the producing areas restricts upward movement. Indonesia's biodiesel technology breakthrough may strengthen long - term demand support. In the domestic market, import profit is inverted, near - month arrivals are high, downstream demand is limited, and inventory is increasing [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 18, 2025, the stock indexes fluctuated and declined throughout the day, with the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets having a total turnover of 3166.6 billion yuan, a significant increase of 763.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The decline was mainly due to large stock price increases and significant valuation improvements, causing investors to lose confidence in chasing prices and increasing their willingness to take profits. [3] - In the medium to long term, stock indexes are strongly supported by favorable macro - policies and net inflows of funds. Given the weak credit and inflation data in August and the slowdown in consumption growth, there is a high expectation of policies to stabilize demand, with the key window period for policy introduction expected to be in October. The significant increase in non - bank deposits in July and August and the high - level operation of margin trading balances indicate continuous inflows of incremental funds into the stock market. [3] - However, due to the significant increase in the valuation of some stocks, there is still a willingness among profitable funds to take profits, leading to short - term technical adjustment pressure on stock indexes. The subsequent focus should be on the game between the rhythm of profit - taking and the fermentation of policy expectations. In general, stock indexes are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term. [3] - Currently, the implied volatility of options has increased. Considering the long - term upward trend of stock indexes, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads. [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On September 18, 2025, most ETFs and stock indexes declined, except for the科创 50ETF and the 易方达科创 50ETF, which rose by 0.69% and 0.64% respectively. For example, the 50ETF fell 1.30% to 3.048, and the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 1.27% to 4.594. [5] - The trading volume PCR and open - interest PCR of various options changed compared to the previous trading day. For instance, the trading volume PCR of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF options was 78.41 (previous day: 87.34), and the open - interest PCR was 73.26 (previous day: 76.66). [6] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in September or October 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets were provided for different options. For example, the implied volatility of at - the - money options of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF options in September 2025 was 19.35%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 15.12%. [7] 3.2 Relevant Charts - Multiple charts were presented for different types of options, including the trend of the underlying asset, volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and the implied volatility of at - the - money options for different terms. For example, for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF options, there were charts showing its trend, volatility, trading volume PCR, etc. [9][11][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, weakening volatility, and a significant decline on Thursday. With the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation fulfilled, the short - term positive factors are exhausted. The rubber market has shifted to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. It is expected that the contract may maintain a weakly volatile trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, weakening volatility, and a slight decline on Thursday. Suppressed by the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected that the contract may maintain a weakly volatile trend in the future [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, downward volatility, and a slight decline on Thursday. With the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation fulfilled, the short - term positive factors are exhausted, and the market has shifted to a weak supply - demand fundamental. It is expected that the contract may maintain a weakly volatile trend in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 586,600 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons or 0.95% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 8.32% to 66,200 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.07% to 520,400 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 3.44 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.96 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.27 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.65 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a week - on - week increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a week - on - week increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points [9]. - In the terminal retail segment, in August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the automobile circulation industry's prosperity. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released that the China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index in August 2025 was 50.9%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [10]. - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 1% month - on - month decrease from July and a 35% increase from 62,500 vehicles in the same period last year. In the first eight months of 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market reached 710,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [10]. Methanol - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 81.20%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.52%, a month - on - month increase of 2.20%, and a slight increase of 2.21% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1,919,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56,000 tons, and a significant increase of 126,700 tons compared with 1,792,600 tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.48%, a week - on - week increase of 0.30%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 6.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.10%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 79.56%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.81%, with no week - on - week change. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.33% [11]. - As of September 12, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 225 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 59 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 138 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 1,267,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 122,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 376,200 tons, and a significant increase of 365,100 tons compared with the same period last year. The port methanol inventory in East China reached 808,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 98,200 tons, and the port methanol inventory in South China reached 459,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,500 tons. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 342,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 46,900 tons, and a significant decrease of 88,400 tons compared with 431,000 tons in the same period last year [12][13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 416, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.482 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 282,000 barrels per day [13]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 415 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 9.285 million barrels and a significant decrease of 2.152 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 23.561 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 296,000 barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 405.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 504,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 93.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.60 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.2 percentage points [14]. - As of September 9, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 81,844 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 20,584 contracts and a significant decrease of 40,219 contracts or 32.95% compared with the August average of 122,063 contracts. As of September 9, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 205,775 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 34,954 contracts and a slight increase of 3,457 contracts or 1.71% compared with the August average of 202,318 contracts. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week, and the net long positions in the Brent crude oil futures market also decreased significantly week - on - week [15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,050 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | 15,570 yuan/ton | - 310 yuan/ton | - 520 yuan/ton | + 210 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,285 yuan/ton | - 17 yuan/ton | 2,346 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | - 61 yuan/ton | + 13 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 466.3 yuan/barrel | + 0.5 yuan/barrel | 491.8 yuan/barrel | - 7.5 yuan/barrel | - 25.5 yuan/barrel | + 8.0 yuan/barrel | [17] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][21] - Methanol: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][36] - Crude Oil: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [45][47][49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - On September 18, the coke main contract closed at 1,709 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.10%. The spot market showed that the latest quoted price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke flat - closing price index was 1,470 yuan/ton, down 3.29% week - on - week, while Qingdao Port's quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke ex - warehouse price was 1,480 yuan/ton, up 6.47% week - on - week. The coke futures market is in a stalemate between bulls and bears, and the J2601 contract is expected to oscillate within a range. Under the background of domestic "anti - involution" rectification, coke futures are expected to be more likely to rise than fall [5][34]. - On September 18, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,203.5 points, with an intraday decline of 2.11%. The latest quoted price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,140.0 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. Coking coal production has gradually recovered after the 9.3 parade but remains at a low level, and Mongolian coal imports have returned to a high for the year. The supply side has no obvious contradictions, and the demand side has not changed significantly. The coking coal market is also in a stalemate, and the main contract is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term, with upward momentum relying on "anti - involution" measures [6][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In August 2025, China exported 760,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25.2%, and the cumulative export from January to August was 4.93 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20.5%. In August, China imported 50,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 40.6%, and the cumulative import from January to August was 320,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 33.2% [7]. - On September 18, the price of coking coal in the Jinzhong market remained stable, with the ex - factory cash - inclusive price of medium - sulfur main coking clean coal being 1,220 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Quasi - First - Class Coke (Flat - Closing) | 1,470 yuan/ton | Down 3.29% | Down 6.37% | Down 13.02% | Down 13.02% | | Qingdao Port Quasi - First - Class Coke (Ex - Warehouse) | 1,480 yuan/ton | Up 6.47% | Unchanged | Down 8.64% | Down 12.43% | | Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coking Coal | 1,140 yuan/ton | Unchanged | Down 3.39% | Down 3.39% | Down 18.57% | | Jingtang Port Australian - Produced Coking Coal | 1,610 yuan/ton | Up 5.23% | Up 1.90% | Up 8.05% | Down 3.01% | | Jingtang Port Shanxi - Produced Coking Coal | 1,550 yuan/ton | Unchanged | Down 4.91% | Up 1.31% | Down 10.40% | [9] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,709.0 yuan/ton | - 1.10% | 1,754.0 yuan/ton | 1,698.5 yuan/ton | 28,660 | 3,743 | 46,432 | - 271 | | Coking Coal | - | 1,203.5 points | - 2.11% | 1,237.5 points | 1,192.0 points | 1,192,468 | - 199,742 | 724,372 | - 36,154 | [13] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The content mainly includes charts of coke inventory (230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port coke total inventory, and total coke inventory), coking coal inventory (mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel - mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal), and other charts such as domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement, coal - washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][21][26]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The outlook for coke and coking coal is similar to the core views. The markets are in a stalemate between bulls and bears, and the main contracts are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term. The upward momentum of both depends on the "anti - involution" measures in the coal industry [5][6][34][35].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, Treasury bond futures oscillated and declined. Based on the macro - economic data for August, credit data was weak, the marginal growth rate of consumption slowed, and inflation data was weak. Expectations for stable demand from macro - policies in the fourth quarter are rising. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, shifting its focus from "controlling inflation" to "stabilizing employment". The shift to a loose external monetary environment reduces constraints on the RMB exchange rate, and there are still expectations for an overall interest - rate cut in the fourth quarter, but the possibility of an immediate cut is low. After the continuous rebound from the previous bottom, the implied interest - rate cut expectation is already reflected, so the short - term rebound space is limited. In general, Treasury bond futures face both upward pressure and downward support, and will mainly oscillate in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Industry News - On September 18, the People's Bank of China conducted 487 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations with a 7 - day term at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous time. According to previous announcements, 292 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 195 billion yuan through reverse repurchases [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Last night, Shanghai copper opened lower and oscillated, and continued its decline today, weakening again in the afternoon. With the Fed's interest rate cut, long - position holders closed their positions, leading to a general decline in domestic commodities. Technically, LME copper reached the upper limit of the previous oscillation range, increasing short - term long - closing willingness. Continuously monitor the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [4]. - **沪铝**: Aluminum prices decreased significantly with reduced positions last night, stabilized in oscillation today, and the position volume continued to decline. Due to the Fed's interest rate cut, long - position holders closed their positions, causing a general decline in domestic commodities. Technically, Shanghai aluminum faces pressure at the March high, with strong long - closing willingness. Short - term attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **沪镍**: Shanghai nickel oscillated downward today, with a slight decline in position volume, causing the futures price to break below 121,000 at the end of the session. After the Fed's interest rate cut, long - position holders closed their positions, resulting in a general decline in domestic commodities. In the industrial aspect, the port inventory of domestic nickel ore and the inventory of nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are rising, which is bearish for nickel prices. It is expected that the futures price will tend to oscillate [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In the North China electrolytic copper market, high copper prices have significantly suppressed downstream consumption. Although copper prices have declined, downstream enterprises are still hesitant to buy due to price concerns. As smelters are about to conduct centralized maintenance, their enthusiasm for selling is low. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, market trading is inactive [8]. - **Aluminum**: According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in August 2025, China imported 18.29 million tons of bauxite, a month - on - month decrease of 8.82% and a year - on - year increase of 18.2%. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative bauxite imports reached 141.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.40% [9]. - **Nickel**: On September 18, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was between 121,400 and 124,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was between 2,100 and 2,300 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was between - 100 and 300 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant inventory, etc. [10][12][13] - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, aluminum monthly spread, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, aluminum rod inventory, etc. [22][24][26] - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel monthly spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [34][36][38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily decline of 0.25%, and the volume and open interest increased. The supply of rebar continued to shrink while the demand rebounded from a low level, but the downstream situation did not improve, and the strength of the peak season was still in doubt. With cost increase as a relative positive factor, the steel price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil declined with a daily decline of 0.89%, and the volume and open interest increased. The demand for hot-rolled coil showed weakening resilience, while the supply remained at a high level, the supply-demand pattern was weakening, and the inventory increased again. With cost increase and production restrictions as relative positive factors, the price is expected to show a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [6]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a high level with a daily decline of 0.12%, the volume increased and the open interest decreased. Supported by pre-holiday stockpiling, the ore price remained at a high level, but the demand resilience was weakening, and the supply was increasing. The fundamentals did not improve, and the upward driving force of the high-valued ore price was limited. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Dynamics - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, adjusting the federal funds rate target range from 4.25% - 4.50% to 4.0% - 4.25%, releasing a loose signal to cope with economic downside risks [8]. - In August 2025, China's excavator output was 27,590 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. From January to August 2025, the output was 245,556 units, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. The production of tractors showed different trends, with large, medium, and small tractors having different year - on - year changes [9]. - In August 2025, China exported 563 million tons of steel plates, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 4.808 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In August, China exported 163 million tons of steel bars, a year - on - year increase of 51.0%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 1.225 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.2% [10]. Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price was 3,210 yuan, down 20 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,210 yuan, down 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,298 yuan, down 8 yuan. For hot - rolled coil, the Shanghai price was 3,400 yuan, down 20 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,330 yuan, down 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,445 yuan, down 12 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,040 yuan, down 20 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,130 yuan, unchanged [11]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 790 yuan, down 5 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 798 yuan, unchanged. The Australian sea freight was 10.60 yuan, unchanged; the Brazilian sea freight was 23.98 yuan, up 0.12 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 105.45 yuan, down 0.27 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 105.60 yuan, down 0.30 yuan [11]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,147 yuan, with a decline of 0.25%, the highest price was 3,176 yuan, the lowest price was 3,123 yuan, the trading volume was 1,727,718 lots, an increase of 485,624 lots, and the open interest was 1,999,684 lots, an increase of 36,313 lots [15]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,354 yuan, with a decline of 0.89%, the highest price was 3,400 yuan, the lowest price was 3,345 yuan, the trading volume was 661,851 lots, an increase of 160,913 lots, and the open interest was 1,412,324 lots, an increase of 20,862 lots [15]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 800.0 yuan, with a decline of 0.12%, the highest price was 809.0 yuan, the lowest price was 797.0 yuan, the trading volume was 308,247 lots, an increase of 53,979 lots, and the open interest was 533,529 lots, a decrease of 936 lots [15]. Relevant Charts - There are charts showing the weekly changes in rebar inventory, hot - rolled coil inventory, hot - rolled inventory total (steel mills + social inventory), national 45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 - steel - mill iron ore inventory, 247 - sample steel - mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 87 - independent electric - furnace operating rate, domestic mine iron concentrate inventory, 247 - steel - mill profitable steel - mill ratio, 75 - building - material independent electric - arc - furnace steel - mill profit and loss situation [17][24][31] 后市研判 - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern has improved with supply contraction and demand rebound, but the downstream situation is still poor, and the peak - season strength is doubtful. With cost increase as a positive factor, the steel price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [39]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern is weakening with increasing supply and weakening demand. With cost increase and production restrictions as positive factors, the price is expected to show a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [39]. - For iron ore, supported by pre - holiday stockpiling, the ore price remains at a high level, but the demand resilience is weakening and the supply is increasing. The fundamentals have not improved, and the upward driving force of the high - valued ore price is limited. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [40].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the 2601 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the strong side". The core logic is that multiple and short factors are intertwined, leading to high - level oscillation of coking coal [1]. - For the 2601 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the strong side". The core logic is that the long and short forces are in a stalemate, causing coke to oscillate [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - Spot market: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimao Port is 1140.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat. The "anti - involution" sentiment in the market has resurfaced, and the coking coal supply is expected to be favorable. Also, the central environmental protection inspection requires Shanxi to control coal production, making the futures price easy to rise and hard to fall. However, there are no specific policy measures in the coal industry yet [5]. Coke (J) - Spot market: The latest quotation of the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.29%; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1480 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 6.47%. In the futures market, the "anti - involution" disturbance has reappeared, making the coke futures easy to rise and hard to fall, and the main contract is running strongly. Attention should be paid to whether there are specific "anti - involution" measures in the coal industry [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The overall view of the report is that the treasury bond futures will show an oscillating trend. In the short - term, they will be mainly in an oscillating consolidation state, with an oscillating - up trend during the day, and the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillating. The futures are influenced by monetary policy expectations and stock market risk preferences, with both upward pressure and downward support [1][5]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is oscillating - up, and the overall view is oscillating. The core logic is that there is still an expectation of medium - and long - term interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The daily view of varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS is oscillating - up, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating. - The core logic is that the treasury bond futures oscillated and rose yesterday. They are mainly affected by monetary policy expectations and stock market risk preferences. Based on August macro - economic data, credit data is weak, consumption growth has marginally weakened, and inflation data is weak, leading to an increasing expectation of stable demand from macro - policies in the fourth quarter. The possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low, but there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut in the domestic market in the fourth quarter as the overseas Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectation is gradually realized. Additionally, the stock market risk preference is high, and the capital side suppresses the demand for treasury bonds. The year - on - year increase in non - bank deposit data in July and August indicates the stock - bond seesaw effect. Overall, the treasury bond futures have both upward pressure and downward support, and will mainly be in an oscillating consolidation state in the short term [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 需求表现尚可，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所变化，矿石终端消耗如期回升，且假期钢厂补库，需求表现尚可，继续给予 矿价支撑，需注意的钢市矛盾在累积，需求韧性料将趋弱。与此同时，国内港口到货虽回落，但 ...