Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The raw material prices are rising strongly, driving up the steel prices. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed little. The production is increasing while the demand is weak, and the overall fundamentals are weakly stable. The rebar prices are expected to continue the oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Mysteel today [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday trend is weakly oscillatory. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that strong raw materials drive up the steel prices [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Strong raw material price increases lead to higher steel prices. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed little. Construction steel mills are continuously resuming production, and rebar output is rising, weakening the positive effect of low supply. The rebar demand is weak, and high - frequency demand indicators remain at the low level of the same period in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved, and the demand will continue to decline seasonally, dragging down the steel price. Although the strong rise of raw materials boosts the sentiment in the black market and the rebar futures price oscillates upward, the steel price is still prone to pressure in the off - season [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Gold: In the short - term, it is expected to be in a range - bound state; in the medium - term, it will be strong; and on an intraday basis, it is slightly bullish. The recommended strategy is to wait and see. The core logic is that the recovery of liquidity and geopolitical conflicts are favorable for the gold price [1]. - Copper: In the short - term, it will be in a range - bound state; in the medium - term, it will be strong; and on an intraday basis, it is slightly bearish. The recommended strategy is to be bullish in the long run. The core logic is that the recovery of liquidity and strong industrial expectations will drive up the copper price [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the Shanghai gold futures fluctuated downward, breaking through the 1000 - yuan mark during the day, and showed strong performance at night, returning to the 1000 - yuan mark [3]. - **Market Environment**: After the Venezuela incident, the panic in the market did not spread. The US stock Dow Jones index hit a new high. After the holiday, the market risk appetite and liquidity remained high. The short - term macro - environment cooled down, and the assets with good previous gains generally declined, increasing the safe - haven demand for gold and providing support for the gold price [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Continuously monitor the long - short game at the 1000 - yuan mark [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday during the day, due to the cooling of the macro - environment, Shanghai copper futures fluctuated weakly, and this weakness continued at night. The trading volume of positions changed little. Last night, LME copper broke through the $13,000 mark, and the main contract price of Shanghai copper once broke through the 102,000 - yuan mark [4]. - **Price Drivers**: Since December, the core drivers of the copper price increase have been macro - liquidity easing, mine - end disturbances, and the long - term AI narrative. Recently, the short - term sharp increase in the copper price has led to an increase in the willingness of long - position holders to close their positions, causing the futures price to fall from its high [4].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：强势 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1110.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 0.9%。整 体来看，元旦过后，焦煤预计进入供需两增格局，短期基本面难言明显改善，但经济政策预 期、"反内卷"政策预期、下游冬储补库预期，以及春节煤矿减产预期等利好驱动渐显，带动 焦煤期货走强。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 强势 | 供应强预期再现，焦煤大幅反弹 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 强势 | 成本端支撑，焦炭低位反弹 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the reports [1][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to be volatile in the short - and medium - term, and weak in the intraday. Overall, it is likely to run weakly, with oversupply in the supply - demand situation being the dominant factor [1] - Although geopolitical risks have increased during the New Year's holiday, the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market is the long - term logic for the decline in oil prices. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures prices on Thursday may maintain a volatile and weak trend [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - period and Viewpoint Summary - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2602 is "volatility" [1] - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2602 is "volatility" [1] - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2602 is "weak", and the reference view is "weakly running" [1][5] 3.2 Price Movement and Driving Logic - The core logic for the weak trend of crude oil is the oversupply in the supply - demand situation [1] - During the New Year's holiday, geopolitical risks increased due to the US military operation in Venezuela and threats to other South American countries, which may be a factor for the post - holiday oil price increase. However, the long - term pressure on oil prices comes from the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market. The domestic crude oil futures maintained a volatile and weak trend on Wednesday night and are expected to continue this way on Thursday [5]

Report Overview - The report provides an analysis of the rubber, methanol, and crude oil futures markets, including core views, industry dynamics, spot prices, and related charts [6]. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher. The price center shifted slightly up to 16,200 yuan/ton, closing at 16,180 yuan/ton, up 1.44%. The 5 - 9 month spread discount narrowed to 10 yuan/ton. The domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and the rubber price has broken out of the triangular range and maintained a slightly strong pattern [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and reducing positions, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher. The price reached a high of 2,323 yuan/ton and a low of 2,241 yuan/ton, closing at 2,267 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The 5 - 9 month spread premium narrowed to 20 yuan/ton. With the sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices, methanol futures maintained a strong pattern [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2602 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating downward, and closing significantly lower. The price reached a high of 437.3 yuan/barrel and a low of 411.0 yuan/barrel, closing at 416.3 yuan/barrel, down 2.57%. Although the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela escalated, the event was quickly digested by the market. Currently, the oil market is still dominated by the expectation of supply - demand surplus, and both domestic and international oil prices remained weak [6]. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,500 tons or 4.48%. The general trade inventory increased by 16,900 tons to 460,300 tons, a 3.80% increase, and the bonded area inventory increased by 8.16% [8]. - In the week of December 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.35 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises may continue to decline next week [8]. - In November 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 55.6%, up 3.8 percentage points year - on - year and 3.0 percentage points month - on - month. The logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles in November, a 6% month - on - month decrease but a 46% year - on - year increase. From January to November, the cumulative sales exceeded 1 million vehicles, a 26% year - on - year increase [9]. Methanol - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 86.58%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%, a month - on - month increase of 2.57%, and a significant increase of 7.83% compared with the same period last year. The weekly methanol production reached 2.0722 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,200 tons [10]. - The operating rates of formaldehyde, acetic acid, and MTBE showed different trends. The domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plant average operating load was 81.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.83 percentage points. As of December 31, 2025, the methanol to olefin futures盘面 profit was - 300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.1316 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 113,200 tons. The inland methanol inventory was 422,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18,600 tons [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 409, a week - on - week increase of 3. The US daily crude oil production was 13.827 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 million barrels per day [11]. - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory was 422.9 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 1.934 million barrels. The Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 549,000 barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve increased by 248,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 94.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage points [12]. - As of December 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were 64,898 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 10,002 contracts. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 99,095 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 58,107 contracts [12]. Spot Price Table | 品种 | 现货价格 | 较前一日涨跌 | 期货主力合约 | 较前一日涨跌 | 基差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 15,750 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 16,180 yuan/ton | +130 yuan/ton | - 430 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | | 甲醇 | 2,305 yuan/ton | - 2 yuan/ton | 2,267 yuan/ton | - 26 yuan/ton | +38 yuan/ton | +24 yuan/ton | | 原油 | 402.2 yuan/barrel | +0.0 yuan/barrel | 416.3 yuan/barrel | - 11.9 yuan/barrel | - 14.1 yuan/barrel | +11.9 yuan/barrel | [13] Related Charts - The report includes charts of rubber (such as rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, futures inventory, and tire开工率), methanol (such as methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, port and inland inventory, and production cost), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, commercial inventory, refinery operating rate, and net position changes) [14][27][40].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 7 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 供应扰动再现，煤焦低位反弹 核心观点 焦炭：1 月 07 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1773 元/吨，日内录得 7.98%的涨 幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 3.84 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+1678 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1470 元/吨，周环比下跌 3.29%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1420 元/吨， 周环比下跌 2.07%。期货市场方面，本周焦炭期货向上反弹，主要是受焦 煤供应端扰动支撑。此外，进入新一年度后，经济政策预期、"反内卷" 政策预期，以及下游冬储补库预期的向上驱动渐显，带动焦炭期货走强。 焦煤：1 月 07 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1164 点，日内上涨 7.98%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 51.06 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+11257 手。现 货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1110.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 0.9%。整体来看，元旦过后，焦煤预计进入供需两增格局，短期基本面难 言明显改善 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 热轧卷板：主力期价强势上涨，录得 2.52%日涨幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热卷需求韧性表现尚可，叠加市场情绪偏暖，价格震荡走高，但产 量大幅回升，且需求存有隐忧，谨防需求走弱引发矛盾再度累积，届时 价格将承压走弱，关注需求表现情况。 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 7 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 乐观情绪发酵，钢矿偏强运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价强势上涨，录得 2.87%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 商品情绪偏暖，螺纹期价低位回升，但供增需弱局面下螺纹基本面弱稳 运行，淡季钢价上行有待跟踪 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 7 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货震荡小幅调整 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡小幅回调。央行表示 2026 年要继续实施好适度宽 松的货币政策，具体方面的表述是"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策 工具"，这说明降息的条件会根据外部货币环境以及国内经济基本面综合考 虑。考虑到短期内宏观数据表现较强韧性，货币政策宽松的紧迫性下降，叠 加一季度国债密集发行带来的供给端压力，国债期货价格承压。当然中长期 来看内需有效需求不足的问题仍需偏宽松的货币信用环境，未来仍存降息 可能性，国债期货支撑力量仍存。总的来说，预计短期内震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反 ...

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 7 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色日内回落，镍维持强势 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 核心观点 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 沪铜 昨夜沪铜在 10.5 万关口维持强势运行，今日沪铜增仓回落，午后 一度跳水至 10.3 万以下，随后企稳回升。元旦节后国内宏观氛围持 续回暖，资产普涨。而铜在产业供应收缩的背景下矿端扰动再起， 形成了宏观和产业利好共振。短期内外盘分歧加剧，日内宏观氛围 有所冷却，资金获 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, all stock indices fluctuated and consolidated. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 28,815 billion yuan, an increase of 493 billion yuan from the previous day. Policy - positive expectations and the net inflow of funds are the main drivers for the upward movement of stock indices. The policies of the Central Economic Work Conference are gradually being implemented, and policy - positive expectations continue to ferment. The purchase amount of margin trading funds soared from about 220 billion yuan before the holiday to about 300 billion yuan, indicating high enthusiasm of leveraged funds to enter the market. The stock indices have broken through the upper limit of the previous oscillation range. Due to the unchanged main logics of policy - positive expectations and net fund inflow, the stock indices are likely to remain strong in the future. In general, it is expected that the stock indices will fluctuate strongly in the short term. For options, since the current position PCR and implied volatility have both rebounded, a bull - spread strategy can be considered [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On January 7, 2026, the 50ETF fell 0.46% to 3.220; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.37% to 4.901; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.38% to 4.977; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.29% to 4776.67; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.53% to 7906.42; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.48% to 7.999; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.51% to 3.157; the GEM ETF rose 0.24% to 3.311; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.31% to 3.542; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.43% to 3145.12; the STAR 50ETF rose 1.00% to 1.52; the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 0.96% to 1.47 [5] - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options showed different changes compared with the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 72.92 (previous trading day: 58.87), and the position PCR was 101.23 (previous trading day: 108.76) [6] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in January 2026 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets were also presented. For instance, the implied volatility of at - the - money SSE 50ETF options in January 2026 was 15.59%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 11.38% [7] 3.2 Relevant Charts - The report includes various charts for different types of options, such as the SSE 50ETF option, SSE 300ETF option, etc. These charts show the trends of the underlying assets, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [9][20][33]