投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 基本面未改善，上行驱动不强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 行情驱动逻辑 煤炭行业利好发酵提振市场情绪，钢材期价夜盘走强，但螺纹钢供需格局表现偏弱，供应持续 下降并降至低位，给予钢价支撑，持续性待跟踪。与此同时，螺纹钢需求季节性走弱，高频指标延 续低位偏弱运行，且下游行业也未好转，弱势需求易承压钢价。目前来看，市场情绪回暖，钢材期 价低位回 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 碳酸锂强势运行 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 108620 元/吨，较前日 上涨 8020 元/吨（+7.97%），近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 97080 元/吨，较前日上涨 1.22%， 近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 17 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 【基差分析】当前基差为-9920 点，负基差（现货贴水），较前日 走弱 4890 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走弱。 【仓单情况】 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily increase of 0.10%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, rebar supply has dropped to a low level but its sustainability is questionable, while demand is seasonally weakening. The fundamentals continue to operate weakly, and steel prices in the off - season are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and policy expectations. Under the game between expectations and reality, steel prices will maintain a low - level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated with a daily increase of 0.03%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. At present, both the supply and demand sides of hot - rolled coil are weakening, and the industrial contradictions are alleviated to a limited extent. Prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and policy expectations. Under the game of multiple and short factors, hot - rolled coil will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore was relatively strong with a daily increase of 1.25%, trading volume decreased and open interest increased. Currently, short - term bullish factors remain, supporting iron ore prices at a relatively high level. However, the demand for iron ore is weakening while the supply remains high. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. Under the game of multiple and short factors, iron ore prices will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - From January to November, the national general public budget revenue was 2.00516 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. Among them, property tax revenue was 47.14 billion yuan, urban land use tax revenue was 23.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5%; land value - added tax revenue was 37.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%. The national government - managed fund budget revenue was 402.74 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. The central government - managed fund budget revenue was 39.38 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%; local government - managed fund budget revenue at the provincial level was 363.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. Among them, the income from the transfer of the right to use state - owned land was 291.19 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% [7]. - In November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were strong, with year - on - year rapid growth. In November 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.88 million and 1.823 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 20% and 20.6% respectively. From January to November 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 14.907 million and 14.78 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% and 31.2% respectively. In November 2025, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 1.522 million, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. From January to November 2025, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 12.466 million, a year - on - year increase of 23.2%. In November 2025, the export of new energy vehicles was 300,000, a month - on - month increase of 17.3% and a year - on - year increase of 2.6 times. From January to November 2025, the export of new energy vehicles was 2.315 million, a year - on - year increase of 1 time [8]. - As of December 17, 237 steel enterprises have publicly announced their ultra - low emission transformation progress on the website of the China Iron and Steel Association, including Guangxi Guigang Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. [9] Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,250 yuan, 3,160 yuan, and 3,299 yuan respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,270 yuan, 3,180 yuan, and 3,288 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,940 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,080 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 20 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,170 yuan. The price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 783 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 772 yuan. The ocean freight from Australia was 10.55 yuan, and from Brazil was 22.69 yuan. The SGX swap price (current month) was 106.25 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 106.20 yuan [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,084 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.10%. The trading volume was 593,611 lots, a decrease of 185,104 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1,604,729 lots, a decrease of 10,413 lots. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,245 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.03%. The trading volume was 286,883 lots, a decrease of 153,927 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1,199,948 lots, a decrease of 6,813 lots. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 768.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.25%. The trading volume was 229,787 lots, a decrease of 9,825 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 488,996 lots, an increase of 9,427 lots [12]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory changes and total inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, domestic mine iron concentrate inventory), and steel mill production (including 247 - sample steel - mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization, 87 - independent electric - furnace operating rate, 247 - steel - mill profitable steel - mill ratio, 75 - building - material independent electric - arc - furnace steel - mill profit and loss situation) [14][19][34] 后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand are continuously weakening. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 105,300 tons month - on - month, and supply has continued to contract and reached a low level, which supports steel prices. However, the profit of short - process steel mills is acceptable, and the sustainability of production cuts needs to be tracked. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar is weak. The weekly apparent demand decreased by 138,900 tons month - on - month, and the high - frequency daily trading volume is weakly stable. Both are at the low levels in recent years, and the downstream shows no improvement. Demand is expected to continue to weaken seasonally, which will put pressure on steel prices. In general, the supply of rebar has dropped to a low level but its sustainability is questionable, while demand is seasonally weakening. The fundamentals continue to operate weakly, and steel prices in the off - season are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and policy expectations. Under the game between expectations and reality, steel prices will maintain a low - level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [36]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern continues to be weak. In the off - season, steel mill production is weakening. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 56,000 tons month - on - month, and the supply has continued to contract from a high level, but the inventory level is high, and the pressure relief is limited. Meanwhile, the demand for hot - rolled coil continues to be weak. The weekly apparent demand and high - frequency trading volume are weak. The relatively positive factor is that the production of the main downstream cold - rolled products continues to rise, which supports demand. However, there are new disturbances in export policies, and there are concerns about external demand. The resilience of hot - rolled coil demand is weakening. At present, both the supply and demand sides of hot - rolled coil are weakening, and the industrial contradictions are alleviated to a limited extent. Prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and policy expectations. Under the game of multiple and short factors, hot - rolled coil will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [36]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has changed little. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. The average daily hot - metal output and the daily consumption of imported ore of the sample steel mills decreased again last week, both reaching relatively low levels. Moreover, the profitability of steel mills has not improved, and the weak demand pattern for ore is difficult to change, which will continue to put pressure on iron ore prices. Meanwhile, the arrival volume of iron ore at domestic ports has increased significantly, and the shipments of miners have also increased. Both are at the high levels of the year. The overseas ore supply is active, while the domestic mine production is seasonally weak, and the ore supply remains high. In general, short - term bullish factors remain, supporting iron ore prices at a relatively high level. However, the demand for iron ore is weakening while the supply remains high. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. Under the game of multiple and short factors, iron ore prices will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [37].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the domestic asphalt futures will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future. This is due to the significant weakening of the cost support for asphalt caused by the sharp decline in domestic and international crude oil futures prices. Meanwhile, the supply pressure of domestic asphalt remains high with a steady increase in capacity utilization, while the downstream demand has entered the off - season and the procurement rhythm has slowed down [2][3]. 3) Summary by Related Content Cost Support Weakening - Global crude oil inventories are continuously accumulating, and the expectation of supply surplus has once again dominated the crude oil futures market. US crude oil production has reached a record high, and although OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026, the previous cumulative production increase has made up for the previous production cuts. The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks has raised the expectation of Russia's crude oil return, and it is expected that over 80 million barrels of floating storage crude oil will enter the market, further intensifying the supply surplus [2]. - The weak demand from major global economies, along with the weakening of the oil market's monthly spread and refined oil cracking spread, highlights the weak supply - demand structure of the oil market. After the oil price returned to a weak trend, the cost support for asphalt futures has weakened [2]. Limited Supply Decline - In December, although some refineries such as Hebei Xinhai stopped asphalt production and some in East China maintained low - to - medium production loads, others like Guangzhou Petrochemical and Qilu Petrochemical resumed production, and Sinopec and Liaohe Petrochemical increased production. As of the week of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 92 domestic asphalt refineries was 29.9%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week, and that of 77 heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 27.8%, a 0.1 - percentage - point weekly decrease. Overall, the decline in domestic asphalt supply pressure is limited [2]. Downstream Enters Off - season - Affected by a new round of cold air, the surface construction of domestic asphalt roads has decreased, and the shipment volume in the Northeast and East China regions has significantly declined. In terms of modified asphalt, due to the expansion of the shutdown scope in the North, the supply of modified asphalt has significantly decreased. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic sample modified asphalt enterprises was 9.0%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 0.5 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [3]. - Under the influence of weak supply and demand, the domestic asphalt social inventory has slightly decreased. The social inventory in East China has been significantly depleted because some projects are in the final stage and mainly consume inventory [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term and may maintain a strong run due to increased market risk - aversion as the macro - environment weakens. In the medium - term, it will be in a volatile state, and in the long - term, it has shown a high - level volatile trend since late October. [1][3] - Copper is expected to be strong in the long - term. Although it is under pressure in the short - term due to decreased market risk preference and liquidity, it is supported by downstream replenishment demand and low LME inventories. [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Short - term**: The short - term view is bullish. After the macro - environment took a turn for the worse since last Friday, overseas stocks and commodities generally declined, and the short - term liquidity of gold decreased significantly. The impact of the interest - rate meeting has been fully digested, and the market's risk - aversion demand has risen rapidly, so the price of gold may maintain a strong run. [1][3] - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view is volatile. Since late October when Sino - US relations eased, the price of gold has been in a high - level volatile state, and attention can be paid to the technical pressure at the $4400 mark. [3] - **Intraday**: The intraday view is volatile and bullish. Yesterday, the price of gold in the Asian session fluctuated downward and then rose and fell back at night. The US non - farm payroll data last night was mixed, and the short - term fluctuation of gold was not obvious. [3] Copper - **Short - term**: The short - term view is volatile. Yesterday, the price of copper in the Asian session decreased with reduced positions, dropping nearly 2000 yuan/ton from the high. The market risk preference and liquidity decreased, putting pressure on the copper price. However, it is relatively resistant in the non - ferrous sector due to its strong financial attributes. [1][4] - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view is bullish. As the copper price drops, the downstream replenishment willingness in the industry increases, and the low LME inventories strongly support the copper price. [1][4] - **Intraday**: The intraday view is volatile and bullish. The long - short game has intensified, and the copper price shows a pattern of being strong overseas and weak in China. Attention can be paid to the support of the 10 - day moving average. [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being weak [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Trend and Viewpoint - The short - term trend of methanol 2605 is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, and the intraday is weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1]. - After the previous positive factors were digested, methanol futures rebounded but were blocked and fell back. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Wednesday [5]. 3.2 Driving Logic - The domestic methanol supply pressure is increasing, and the sharp correction of domestic coal futures prices has dragged down methanol futures [5]. - Although the port and inland inventories have slightly declined, they are still at a high level, and the downstream demand improvement is insufficient, with the olefin disk profit weakening [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term views of both coking coal and coke are "oscillation", and the intraday views are "oscillation on the strong side", with an overall "oscillation thinking" [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Price**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1125.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.0% [5] - **Supply and Demand**: Recent coking coal production has slightly decreased, while imported Mongolian coal has increased significantly. The supply - side support is limited, and downstream coke production has weakened, with no obvious improvement in the fundamentals [5] - **Market Performance**: As the market trades on supply - side pressure, the long - short game in the coking coal futures has increased recently, and the price has started to oscillate at a low level [5] Coke (J) - **Price**: The latest quotation of the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1570 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1430 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.69% [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Recently, both supply and demand of coke have decreased, and the reduction on the demand side is more obvious, with relatively weak fundamentals [6] - **Market Performance**: In December, domestic high - level meetings have not released direct benefits for coke. The market maintains the fundamental logic. Affected by double pressure from the cost and demand sides, the coke futures will oscillate at a low level in the short term [6]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is to oscillate and consolidate. In the short - term, the probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there is insufficient upward momentum. In the medium - to long - term, there are still expectations of a loose monetary policy, and the futures have strong support. [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Time - based View - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weak. The reference view is oscillating and consolidating. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there are still long - term loose expectations. [1] - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating and consolidating. [5] Core Logic - In the medium - to long - term, the monetary policy environment tends to be loose, and interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts are still expected. Currently, the market interest rate implies a weak expectation of interest rate cuts, so Treasury bond futures have strong support. [5] - In the short - term, the pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target is small, so there is no need for an interest rate cut this year, and Treasury bond futures lack short - term upward momentum. [5] - From the supply - demand perspective, the current internal and external uncertain risk factors are weak, the market risk - aversion sentiment is not strong, and there is a certain supply pressure for long - term bonds in the first quarter of next year, so the prices of long - term bonds are suppressed to some extent. [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlook of oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a slightly upward bias respectively. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakening, and the ore price will continue to oscillate [1]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is operating weakly. Steel mill production is weakening in the off - season, leading to a continuous decline in ore demand and unchanged poor profitability. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals have rebounded significantly, and miner shipments have reached a new high for the year. Overall, the ore supply remains high. Although short - term positive factors support the ore price at a relatively high level, the weakening demand and high supply result in a weak fundamental situation in the ore market, with limited upward momentum. The ore price will continue to oscillate, and the performance of steel should be monitored [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation with a slightly upward bias. The overall view is wide - range oscillation, and the core logic is the weakening supply - demand pattern and continued ore price oscillation [1]. Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is weak. Steel mill production in the off - season leads to falling ore demand and unchanged profitability. Port arrivals have increased, and miner shipments are at a high level. Although short - term positives support the price, the supply - demand imbalance makes the market fundamental weak and the upward drive limited. The ore price will oscillate, and steel performance should be watched [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 区间震荡 | 短期政策利好驱动有限，资金交 投热情较弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡下跌。股市全市场成交额 1.75 万亿元，较上日成交额缩量 463 亿元。 近期股市成交量能缩量，主要是因为市场驱动力量表现不足，资金交投热情回落。中央经济工作会议 延续 ...