宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 9 月 4 日） 品种观点参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 产业矛盾累积，钢价承压走弱 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 行情驱动逻辑 | | 获 取 | 每 日 | 期 货 观 点 | 推 送 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 服 务 国 家 | 走 向 世 界 | | | 诚 信 至 上 | 合 规 经 营 | | 知行合一 | 专 业 敬 业 | | | ...

Report Core View - Traders should not be influenced by market emotions, make independent judgments, and make rational decisions to stay invincible in the futures market. They should learn from the failures of Cao Jiu and Zhang Fei, control their emotions, and base their trading on fundamentals and technical analysis while strictly following trading plans [2][3]. - Traders should understand themselves and the market, not act blindly, and make decisions based on whether the market trend is beneficial or not [3]. Summary by Content Lessons from History - Cao Jiu was enraged by the Han army's insults and led his troops to cross the Sishui River, resulting in a great defeat for the Chu army and the loss of Chenggao. This shows that emotional outbursts can lead to failure in trading [2]. - Zhang Fei was emotionally out - of - control after Guan Yu's death, whipped his soldiers, and was eventually assassinated by his subordinates. Traders who lose control of their emotions due to market fluctuations will also bring disaster to themselves [2]. Trading Principles - Traders should understand themselves, know their abilities and limitations, and understand the market, study market opportunities and changes, and make independent judgments without following blindly [3]. - Trading should be based on fundamentals, supplemented by technical analysis, and strictly implement trading plans, not being influenced by market noise and others' opinions [3]. - When the market trend is beneficial, traders should act decisively; when it is not, they should wait and see [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: After the Jackson Hole meeting, gold, silver, and copper rose together, with an accelerating upward trend since Friday and a rapidly increasing correlation between gold and copper prices. Technically, copper prices increased with rising positions, breaking through the 80,000 yuan mark with strong upward momentum, expected to maintain a strong performance. A pullback could find support at the 80,000 yuan level. However, as copper prices rose, downstream purchasing willingness declined [4]. - **Aluminum**: From last night's session to today's close, aluminum prices showed a pattern of increasing positions and rising, then decreasing positions and falling. Macroscopically, non - ferrous metals generally rose last night and fell during the day, with significant differences in capital flow between domestic and foreign markets. Industrially, electrolytic aluminum in the middle reaches continued to accumulate inventory, while aluminum rods slowly reduced inventory. As China enters the peak industrial seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", industrial support is expected to strengthen. Technically, aluminum prices have repeatedly fallen back after rising above 20,750 yuan since June, facing significant technical pressure [5]. - **Nickel**: Last night, nickel prices opened lower and fluctuated within a narrow range, maintaining the narrow - range oscillation during the day, and the position volume continued to decline. Industrially, since last week, continuous demonstrations in multiple regions of Indonesia have raised concerns about nickel ore supply, which is favorable for nickel prices. In the short term, nickel prices rose and then fell, with a continuous decline in position volume, indicating a strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions. Technically, attention should be paid to the multi - empty game at the 122,000 yuan level [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: The spot purchasing and sales sentiment in the Shanghai copper market weakened significantly during the day, mainly due to copper prices rising above 80,000 yuan/ton. Most sellers' willingness to sell decreased as copper prices rose, and downstream purchasing willingness also declined significantly. The purchasing sentiment in the Shanghai electrolytic copper market was 3.14, and the sales sentiment was 3.16. On September 3rd, during the first trading session in the morning, most sellers sold at low prices and then became less active in the market [8]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel today was in the range of 121,200 - 123,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,600 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan No. 1 nickel was 2,000 - 2,200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,100 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 300 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper canceled warrant ratio, copper monthly spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant inventory [10][12][13]. - **Aluminum**: There are charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [22][24][26]. - **Nickel**: The charts cover nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel price trend, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory, nickel ore port inventory, and nickel monthly spread [34][36][38].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 焦炭：9 月 03 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1594 元/吨，日内录得 0.59%的跌 幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 4.64 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+306 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1570 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1450 元/吨，周环比 下跌 2.03%。随着钢市走弱，下游经营压力加重，部分钢厂开启焦炭首轮 提涨，产业链博弈增加。此外，近期焦煤"反内卷"题材未见新增驱动， 焦煤市场进入实际供应验证环节，焦炭成本支撑趋弱，带动期货主力合约 震荡下行。不过，考虑到"反内卷"政策的中长期影响，后续供应端仍有 望出现新增利好，预计焦炭本轮回调空间有限。 焦煤：9 月 03 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1106 点，日内下跌 1.25%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 74.58 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+10853 手。现 货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1180.0 元/吨，周环比持平。 本周统计口径内焦煤总库存 2332.07 万吨，周环比增加 16.26 万吨，其中 煤矿、港口累库，焦企、钢 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the conflict in Indonesia, the supply expectation of rubber has been disturbed. The market is worried that the rubber production and export of the world's second-largest rubber-producing country may decline due to the riots. Supported by bullish factors, China's rubber futures showed a volatile and stable trend this week. It is expected that China's rubber futures may maintain a volatile and stable trend in the future [5][11]. - Although the main rubber-producing areas in Indonesia are not directly damaged at present, the riots have posed potential threats to its industrial chain through multiple channels such as labor, logistics, and policy confidence. In the short term, production may fluctuate, and export delivery faces a risk of delay; in the long term, it depends on whether the government can effectively resolve social conflicts and rebuild governance credibility. If the situation continues to be turbulent, Indonesia's position in the global natural rubber market may be challenged [6][29]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The spot price oscillated and rebounded, and the basis widened [1]. - The futures price rose, and the monthly spread turned to premium [1]. 2. Rubber Market Supply and Demand - The rubber production of producing countries has steadily recovered, increasing the supply pressure [5]. - The tire operating rate has slightly recovered [5]. - The sales volume of the automobile market has significantly improved [5]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has recovered, and the inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone has increased [5]. 3. Preface - In late August 2025, large-scale demonstrations broke out in multiple cities in Indonesia, causing casualties. The trigger was the high housing subsidies for members of parliament approved by the Indonesian Congress and a series of controversial remarks made by the members. The turmoil in Indonesia may have a profound impact on the rubber supply and export pattern [10]. 4. Supply Expectation Disturbance and Rubber Volatility Stabilization - Since September, affected by the conflict in Indonesia, the supply expectation of rubber has been disturbed. The market is worried that the rubber production and export may decline. Supported by bullish factors, China's rubber futures showed a volatile and stable trend. The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract traded in the range of 15,720 - 16,135 yuan/ton, and the standard rubber futures 2511 contract traded in the range of 12,605 - 12,935 yuan/ton. It is expected that China's rubber futures may maintain a volatile and stable trend in the future [11]. 5. Root Causes of the Riots in Indonesia - The root causes of the large-scale protests in Indonesia are economic inequality, policy conflicts, and the failure of democratic reform. The riots have caused serious consequences, including traffic paralysis, arrests, arson, and a decline in the stock market [20][21]. 6. Indonesia as an Important Rubber-Producing Country - Indonesia is the world's second-largest natural rubber producer. Its rubber plantations are mainly concentrated in Sumatra and Kalimantan. Sumatra features large-scale and intensive production, while Kalimantan is in the stage of scattered small farmers with great potential for future production increase [22]. 7. Impact of the Riots on Rubber Production and Export in Indonesia - The El Niño phenomenon in 2024 had a negative impact on Indonesia's rubber production. In 2024, the total rubber production was 2.3443 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 758,000 tons, a decline of 24.43%. From January to June 2025, the total rubber production was 1.1761 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 73,800 tons, a decline of 5.90%. From January to June 2025, the total export volume of natural rubber was 892,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 108,500 tons, an increase of 13.85%. If the riots continue, rubber production and export may further decline, and international rubber prices may rise [25]. - The riots may affect rubber production through labor shortages and logistics disruptions, impact exports through port operations and supply chain stability, and shake policy confidence and foreign investment [26][27]. 8. Conclusion - Although the main rubber-producing areas in Indonesia are not directly damaged at present, the riots have posed potential threats to its industrial chain. In the short term, production may fluctuate, and export delivery faces a risk of delay; in the long term, it depends on whether the government can effectively resolve social conflicts and rebuild governance credibility. If the situation continues to be turbulent, Indonesia's position in the global natural rubber market may be challenged [6][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - On September 3, 2025, all stock indices fluctuated and declined. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.3957 trillion yuan, a decrease of 516.7 billion yuan from the previous day. Due to the significant increase in some stocks, the profit - taking demand of profitable funds has risen, and the recent trading volume of the stock market has shrunk, indicating a certain divergence in market expectations, and the stock indices have entered a short - term technical adjustment. In the long - term, the expectation of policy benefits and the loose capital situation strongly support the stock indices, and the logic of the long - term upward movement of the stock indices remains strong. Anti - involution policies and consumption - promotion policies optimize the supply - demand structure from both the supply and demand sides, promote a moderate increase in the price index, and repair corporate profits. In terms of capital, the margin trading balance has risen rapidly, non - bank deposits have soared, and long - term funds have continued to enter the market. The continuous inflow of incremental funds in the stock market promotes the repair of stock valuations. In general, in the short term, the marginal effect of policy benefit expectations has weakened, and the profit - taking demand of profitable funds has increased. The stock indices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. Currently, the implied volatility of options continues to rise. Considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indices, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads for a mild bullish view [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - **ETF and Index Performance**: On September 3, 2025, the 50ETF fell 1.31% to 3.087; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.89% to 4.549; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.91% to 4.692; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.68% to 4459.83; the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.46% to 7206.88; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 1.63% to 6.940; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 1.14% to 2.783; the GEM ETF rose 0.77% to 2.870; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.57% to 3.310; the SSE 50 Index fell 1.07% to 2960.99; the STAR 50ETF fell 2.08% to 1.37; the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 2.05% to 1.34 [5]. - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various options showed different changes compared with the previous trading day. For example, the volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 75.73 (previous day: 80.63), and the open interest PCR was 88.23 (previous day: 90.60) [6]. - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: The implied volatility and 30 - day historical volatility of various options in September 2025 were provided. For instance, the implied volatility of the at - the - money options of SSE 50ETF options in September 2025 was 19.94%, and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.93% [7]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Charts include the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [9][11][13]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Charts cover the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [21][23][25]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Charts involve the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [33][34]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Charts include the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [36][37]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Charts cover the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [38][41][43]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Charts include the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [52][54][56]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Charts involve the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [65][67][69]. - **GEM ETF Options**: Charts cover the GEM ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [77][79][81]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Charts include the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [90][92][94]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Charts cover the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [103][106][107]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Charts include the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [117][118][119]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Charts involve the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [124][125][126].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation, and an intraday view of oscillation with a slight upward bias [1][5] - Although the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed an oscillating and slightly stronger trend on Tuesday night, it still faces significant upward pressure, and the price center may move down due to the weak supply - demand structure [5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For methanol 2601, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating with a slight upward bias, with a reference view of running strongly. The core logic is that the rebound of coal futures prices drives methanol to oscillate with a slight upward bias [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - The current supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift [5] - On Tuesday night, the domestic coal futures prices rebounded slightly, driving the methanol futures 2601 contract to show an oscillating and slightly stronger trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.63% to 2393 yuan/ton. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend on Wednesday [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with an intraday view of oscillating strongly and a medium - term view of oscillation [1][5][7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Performance**: On Tuesday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillating and slightly stronger trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.19% to 15,975 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain this trend on Wednesday [5]. - **Core Logic**: Benefiting from the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro factors have improved. Although the Southeast Asian production areas are in the peak rubber - tapping season, the actual supply output has decreased slightly year - on - year, and the supply pressure is lower than expected. The domestic auto market's production and sales are better than expected, the tire industry remains prosperous, the export growth rate has rebounded, and the external sales are optimistic, providing demand - side support [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Performance**: On Tuesday night, the 2510 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillating and slightly stronger trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.38% to 11,940 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain this trend on Wednesday [7]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is currently dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the improvement of macro sentiment, although the industrial factors of synthetic rubber are weak, the contract still shows an oscillating and stronger trend under the background of long - short divergence [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The report is bullish on both gold and copper in the short - term and medium - term, with an intraday view of oscillating strongly for both [1] - Gold is expected to maintain a strong performance due to rising interest - rate cut expectations, the upward breakthrough of external gold prices, and increased safe - haven demand from the equity market [1][3] - Copper is expected to rise as overseas interest - rate cut expectations increase, the domestic peak season approaches, and there is strong industrial support [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, New York gold hit the $3600 mark, London gold reached above $3500, and Shanghai gold stood above 810 yuan. Since August 22 after the Jackson Hole meeting, gold prices have been on an upward trend [3] - **Driving Factors**: The dovish stance of Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting, rising market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September (although there is a divergence on 2 or 3 rate cuts this year), the slowdown of the equity market (especially the Nasdaq and Shanghai Composite Index), and the upward breakthrough of New York and London gold above the upper edge of the oscillation range since the second quarter [3] - **Technical Analysis**: New York and London gold have strong upward momentum, while Shanghai gold is relatively weak due to RMB appreciation and appreciation expectations [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: Last night, Shanghai copper increased positions and rose, with the position rising to about 510,000 lots, and the main futures price standing above the 80,000 mark. Since the Jackson Hole meeting, copper has been rising, with an accelerating upward trend since Friday [4] - **Driving Factors**: The approaching Fed September FOMC meeting, the high - level oscillation of the domestic and foreign equity markets, the rotation of funds, and the upcoming peak industrial season in China (Golden September and Silver October) which may lead to stronger downstream demand [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The short - term copper price has strong upward momentum after breaking through the 80,000 mark with increased positions [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - and medium - term, and show a slightly weak oscillation trend intraday. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the M20 line. The supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and the ore price will oscillate at a high level [2]. - The iron ore futures price is relatively strong due to improved market sentiment, but the supply - demand pattern has not improved. Ore demand continues to decline, while supply is rising. The ore fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the high - valued ore price is still under pressure. The positive factors are the peak - season expectation and the support of varietal arbitrage funds. The ore price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel prices [3]. Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillation, and the intraday trend is slightly weak oscillation. The key is to focus on the M20 line support. The core logic is the weakly stable supply - demand pattern and high - level ore price oscillation [2]. Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment has improved, but the iron ore supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. Ore demand is falling as steel mill production weakens and steel product contradictions accumulate with shrinking profits. On the supply side, domestic port arrivals have rebounded as expected, and overseas miners' shipments are at a high level. Although domestic ore production is restricted, overall ore supply is increasing. The ore fundamentals are expected to deteriorate, and the high - valued ore price is under pressure. Positive factors include peak - season expectations and varietal arbitrage funds, and the ore price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with attention on steel prices [3].