ᵕ䍝⹊ガᣛ ᣋ䍺䈘ѐࣗ䍺Ṳφ䇷ⴇ䇮ਥɋ2011Ɍ1778ਭ ᇓคᵕ䍝〃ྍᮦᦤᰛᣛδ2025ᒪ 12ᴾ 22ᰛε | | ֌ս | Ԉԃ䑘ͧҫ | ⩰ͨ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ߊޙ | ׂٛ | ߃ ߃ | ߃ ߃ | ߃ ߃ | | 2025/12/19 | -98.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/18 | -90.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/17 | -83.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/16 | -74.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/15 | -64.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | www.bcqhgs.com 1 ᶣᐔᐸ≸ᱥ䐥8ਭݹޢཝড়ђ㼏ᾲ1-5ቸ ➚࣑ࣞжȽ ᵕ䍝⹊ガᣛ | | ֌ս | ਈ࢛͹ׂٛͧҫ⩰ͨ | џࡁ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ߊޙ | /4 + ࡝Խ | ࡝މࣆ | 㿿ற ࡝Խ | | 2025/12/19 | -1.47 | 88.52 | 0 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures commodities on December 22, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, mainly showing the basis, inter - period and inter - variety spreads. 3. Summary by Category Power Coal - **Basis**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the basis of power coal decreased from - 64.40 yuan/ton to - 98.40 yuan/ton [2] - **Inter - period spreads**: The spreads of "5 - month minus 1 - month", "9 - month minus 1 - month", and "9 - month minus 5 - month" were all 0 during this period [2] Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - **Basis**: Data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt are provided from December 15 - 19, 2025, with different values for each day. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on December 19 was 39.52 yuan/ton [7] Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from December 15 - 19, 2025 is presented. For example, the basis of rubber on December 19 was - 340 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the "5 - month minus 1 - month" spread of rubber was - 25 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 15 - 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on December 19 was 1721 yuan/ton [10] Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 15 - 19, 2025 is shown. For example, the basis of rebar on December 19 was 201.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the "5 - month minus 1 - month" spread of rebar was - 2.0 yuan/ton [19] - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from December 15 - 19, 2025 are given. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on December 19 was 4.01 [19] Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - **Basis**: The domestic basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 15 - 19, 2025 is provided. For example, the basis of copper on December 19 was - 980 yuan/ton [30] London Market - **LME spreads and related data**: On December 19, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was 4.73 [33] Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 15 - 19, 2025 is shown. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on December 19 was - 32 yuan/ton [39] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given. For example, the "5 - month minus 1 - month" spread of soybeans No.1 was 35 yuan/ton [39] - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from December 15 - 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on December 19 was 1.85 [39] Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 15 - 19, 2025 is provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on December 19 was 41.18 [50] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of "next - month minus current - month" and "next - quarter minus current - quarter" for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the "next - month minus current - month" spread of CSI 300 was - 216 [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall operation of China's commodity market in 2025 was stable, with obvious characteristics of new and old kinetic energy conversion. The average value of the China Commodity Price Index was expected to be 112.1 points, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous year [4]. - The Chinese bond market showed a positive trend, with the yields of interest - rate bonds declining. The year - end bond market might continue to fluctuate, and the market was cautious about the overall space of the bond market next year [26]. - A - share market entered a critical window for cross - year layout, and structural opportunities would focus on the tracks where policy orientation and industrial prosperity resonated, with the subsequent spring market worth looking forward to [36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.2% but higher than the same period last year's 4.6% [1]. - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, both showing a certain decline [1]. - Social financing scale in November 2025 increased compared to the same period last year, and M0, M1, and M2 growth rates showed different trends [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Guangzhou Futures Exchange restricted the daily opening volume of lithium carbonate futures contracts [2]. - Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the premium and discount of designated delivery warehouses for coking coal futures [2]. - Shanghai International Energy Trading Center planned to revise the standard contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce launched a final review investigation on anti - dumping measures for imported ethylene - propylene - diene monomer rubber from the US, South Korea, and the EU [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - Platinum prices soared in 2025, with a year - to - date increase of over 110%, far exceeding that of gold [6]. - Gold and silver prices rose under the new round of interest - rate cuts, with silver prices increasing by over 130% this year [6]. - There was an obvious surplus of refined copper in the first ten months of 2025 [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the premium and discount of designated delivery warehouses for coking coal futures [2][9]. - China's steel consumption in 2025 was expected to be 8.08 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%, and the global steel consumption was expected to be 17.19 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% [9]. - Indonesia proposed to significantly reduce nickel ore production in 2026 [11]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Bohai Oilfield's cumulative production of oil and gas equivalent in 2025 exceeded 40 million tons, reaching a record high [12]. - China's energy key projects in 2025 were expected to complete an investment of 3.54 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11% [12]. - The price of polysilicon increased, but there was a situation of "high price but no market" [13]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Manzhouli Port achieved a "zero breakthrough" in importing Russian agricultural products [15]. - The Philippines extended the import ban on sugar until December 2026 [15]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 4575 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market were due, along with 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits and 3000 billion yuan of MLF [16]. - On December 19, the central bank conducted 562 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 1000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchases, with a net investment of 357 billion yuan on that day [16][17]. 3.3.2 Important News and Information - The market generally expected that the LPR in December would remain stable [18]. - The State Council Executive Meeting arranged the implementation of the decisions and deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference [18]. - The General Administration of Market Regulation revised the "Regulations on Prohibiting Monopoly Agreements" [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The yields of interest - rate bonds in the Chinese bond market declined, and the 30 - year active bond "25 Super Long Special Treasury Bond 06" performed prominently [26]. - Most of Vanke's bonds rose in the exchange bond market [26]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.041 on December 22, up 9 basis points from the previous trading day [30]. - The US dollar index rose 0.28% in late New York trading, and most non - US currencies fell [30]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believed that the factors driving the RMB appreciation were increasing, and investors should adapt to asset allocation in a RMB - appreciating environment [32]. - CITIC Securities thought that Japan's benign inflation cycle was stable, and the Bank of Japan was about to raise interest rates again [32]. - CITIC Construction Investment considered that the concentrated release of pessimistic sentiment at the end of the year brought potential space for financial bonds [32]. 3.4 Stock Market Important News - A - share market was in a high - level oscillation state near the end of the year, and the Shanghai Composite Index turned positive last week [36]. - As of December 19, the net inflow of subscription and redemption funds of CSI A500 exceeded that of CSI 300 in December, with the net inflow scale exceeding 46 billion yuan [36]. - By December 18, more than 454 listed companies had received institutional research in December, and the hard - tech track became the main focus [37].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 22 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 核心逻辑：近期豆粕市场近强远弱、外弱内稳。国内豆粕库存虽处高位但已开始去化，现货压力有所 缓解。然而，远期合约面临巨大压力。一方面，国内进口大豆库存高企，油厂开机率维持高位；另一 方面，市场对一季度后南美大豆集中到港的预期强烈，远期供应压力不断强化。这导致市场呈现"近 强远弱"的结构，短期价格在成本支撑与供应压力下维持震荡偏弱运行，但中长期受制于全球丰产格 局，面临承压下行走势。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is that it is under pressure but also supported, showing a range - bound trend. The medium - term view is oscillatory. The intraday view is bullish. The reference view is range - bound [1][5] - Policy support leads to strong expectations for the macro - economy in 2026, and as policy expectations ferment, market risk appetite will gradually recover. When the stock index falls to the lower edge of the oscillation range, the willingness of medium - and long - term funds to allocate increases, providing strong support. However, there is insufficient motivation for policy to continue to increase this year, and the policy is expected to take effect in the first quarter of next year. There is still a wait - and - see sentiment in the capital market in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is bullish, and the reference view is range - bound. The core logic is that the policy support expectation and the net inflow trend of funds remain unchanged [1] Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is range - bound. The core logic is that the stock indexes rebounded slightly last Friday. With policy support, there are strong expectations for the macro - economy in 2026. As policy expectations ferment, market risk appetite will recover. When the stock index falls to the lower edge of the oscillation range, the willingness of medium - and long - term funds to allocate increases, providing support. But there is insufficient motivation for policy to increase this year, and the policy is expected to take effect in the first quarter of next year. There is still a wait - and - see sentiment in the capital market in the short term [5]

Core Insights - The report indicates a strong short-term outlook for crude oil, driven by increased geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, overshadowing the negative impact of supply surplus in the oil futures market [5]. Summary by Sections Short-term Outlook - The short-term outlook for crude oil is characterized as "震荡" (fluctuating) with a strong bias, suggesting a potential for price increases due to geopolitical tensions [5]. Medium-term Outlook - The medium-term perspective remains "震荡" (fluctuating), indicating that while there may be volatility, the overall trend is not expected to change significantly in the near future [5]. Daily Perspective - The daily viewpoint is described as "偏强" (slightly strong), reflecting a positive sentiment in the market for crude oil prices, which are expected to maintain a strong performance [5]. Key Drivers - The core logic driving the current market sentiment includes renewed geopolitical tensions, particularly Israel's concerns over Iran's military expansion, which has heightened risks in the region. This has led to a rebound in domestic crude oil futures prices, despite ongoing supply pressures and accumulating global oil inventories [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 12 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 周末钢材现货价格弱稳运行，成交表现偏弱，相应的螺纹钢供需两端有所企稳，螺纹供应回升 但依旧是年内低位，给予钢价支撑，持续性有待跟踪。与此同时，螺纹钢需求同样企稳，高频需求 指标有所增加，但仍是近年来同期低位，而下游行业也未好转，需求延续季节性走弱，继而承压钢 价。目前来看， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the medium - and long - term easing expectations still exist [1] - Treasury bond futures are under pressure and have support, and will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and the medium - and long - term easing expectations still exist [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". Last Friday, treasury bond futures fluctuated and rebounded. Recently, the central bank has made a net injection of liquidity in the open market to support the year - end market liquidity. In the long run, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the monetary policy environment next year tends to be loose, with interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts still expected. Currently, the market interest rate implies a weak expectation of interest rate cuts, so the support for treasury bond futures is strong. In the short term, the market risk - aversion sentiment is weak, and macro - demand has strong resilience, so there is no urgent need for a comprehensive interest rate cut, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is also insufficient [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 12 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 宽幅震荡 | 基本面未改善，上行驱动不强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 现货结构性矛盾未解，叠加补库预期发酵，矿价重回震荡区间上沿，但铁矿石供需格局并未好转， 钢厂生产趋弱，且钢厂盈利状况未改善，矿石需求表现偏弱，仍易承压矿价，相对利好则是低厂库使 得节前补库预期偏强。与此同时，国内港口到货大幅回升，而矿商发运刷新年内单周新高，海外矿石 供应积极，而内矿供应 ...

品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-22 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着国内云南和海南天胶产区陆续进入停割季，未来国产全乳胶供应预期逐渐下降 ...